Will the Padres or Dodgers advance? Predictions and everything you need for NLDS Game 5
Would you want it any other way? After four heated National League Division Series showdowns, the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers will meet in a win-or-go-home Game 5 at Dodger Stadium on Friday night.
Which side will get the last laugh in the intense NL West rivalry? What will decide the finale? And what drama will emerge this time around in Los Angeles?
We have you covered with pregame predictions, live updates and analysis, followed by our takeaways after the final pitch.
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers, 8:08 p.m.
Pitching matchup: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (7-2, 3.00 ERA vs. Yu Darvish (7-3, 3.31 ERA)
What is the key to Game 5 for the Padres?
Bradford Doolittle: The Padres have to guard against getting too big in their collective approach at the plate. What made San Diego’s offense so dynamic during the season was its ability to score in different ways. Against the Dodgers, 62% of the Padres’ runs have come on long balls. That’s fine when the ball is leaving the yard, and the Padres have won two games this series in that fashion. But it has been a well-balanced attack that has gotten the Padres this far, and if the game stays close and low scoring, they need to remember who they are and not swing from the heels on every cut.
Alden Gonzalez: Luis Arráez getting going offensively. He is their leadoff hitter and in many ways a tone-setter for their offense, but he has struggled through the first four games of this series, with three hits in 18 at-bats. Given how hot Fernando Tatis Jr. has been behind him, and the presence of Manny Machado two batters later, Arráez reaching base multiple times could play a major role in reigniting the lineup after it was shut out in Game 4. The Padres scoring early runs and taking the Dodger Stadium crowd out of it will be critical to capturing a Game 5 win in a hostile environment. Arráez, perhaps more so than anybody else, holds those keys.
David Schoenfield: Yu Darvish getting the game to the bullpen with the lead. He did that in Game 2 when he allowed just one run in seven innings, a performance that led manager Mike Shildt to make the questionable decision to start Dylan Cease on short rest in Game 4 — because he wanted Darvish to start Game 5. Dodgers fans undoubtedly remember Darvish’s two poor performances in the 2017 World Series — when the Astros, of course, might have been stealing signs, although his Game 7 outing came at Dodger Stadium — but Darvish has actually been pretty good in the postseason since then (2.56 ERA in six starts with three of those going seven innings). He succeeded in Game 2 despite inducing only seven swings and misses, so Shildt will want to see if Darvish is missing bats early. If not, it might be wise to go to his bullpen sooner rather than later.
What is the key to Game 5 for the Dodgers?
Gonzalez: We don’t know how much Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be used, but Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said he will be “part of” Game 5, either to open or to come in later. Yamamoto made his Dodgers debut against the Padres and was charged with five runs in one inning. He then made his postseason debut against them and was charged with five runs in three innings in Game 1, during which the Dodgers believe he was tipping pitches. Simply put: The highest-paid pitcher in baseball history needs to be better.
Doolittle: With the Dodgers’ pitching plan a little murky, it’s imperative that they keep the score close early. It seems that when things have gone south for the Dodgers in decisive playoff games, often it has been because one pitcher falters early. They’ll be watching a reminder of that history in Game 5 with Darvish on the mound for San Diego. The Dodgers can’t get down early because as much as their offense is capable of coming from behind, you don’t want to be playing catch-up into the middle innings against this San Diego bullpen.
Schoenfield: I’m not going to get too cute here: Shohei Ohtani. Especially if Freddie Freeman is unable to go again, the Dodgers need Ohtani to deposit a pitch — or two — into the outfield seats.
This series has been full of drama. Predict the one thing we’ll all be talking about after the finale:
Doolittle: That testy moment in Game 5. I don’t know when it will happen and whether Machado really did anything to contribute to it, but it’s coming. It’s a great rivalry and hypnotic to watch two teams go at it with such genuine disdain. Let’s just keep the fans out of it this time.
Gonzalez: That Major League Baseball should reseed in the playoffs, making this a best-of-seven series and the winner, whether it’s the Dodgers or the Padres, suddenly the favorite to win it all. These are the two best teams remaining, even if the Padres don’t have Joe Musgrove and the Dodgers are continually uncertain about Freeman.
Schoenfield: Freeman coming off the bench to deliver a crucial pinch-hit, two-run single.
And finally, which team will move on to face the Mets in the NL Championship Series?
Doolittle: Going back to a month before the regular season ended, I was telling people that it was really hard to look at how these teams match up right now and come up with a good reason to pick the Dodgers to beat the Padres. I’m sticking with that. Darvish was excellent in his first appearance, the Padres’ bullpen is deep and dynamic, and I fully expect Machado and Tatis to feast on one or two high-leverage moments in this game.
Schoenfield: Oddly, despite the Dodgers winning the division, it now feels like all the pressure is on the Padres — especially given their, shall we say, bravado on display in Game 2. The Padres weren’t able to channel that into a series-clinching win in Game 4, however, and now they need their bats to talk. The Dodgers, meanwhile, have been expected to move on in recent years only to collapse. But this team has Ohtani. The Dodgers move on.
Live updates
Tune in at game time for live updates and analysis of Game 5.
SOUTH BEND, Ind. — Jeremiyah Love tied the Notre Dame record with a 98-yard touchdown run, Riley Leonard added two more scores and the Fighting Irish shut down the highest-scoring team in the College Football Playoff, overwhelming Indiana 27-17 on Friday night.
The seventh-seeded Fighting Irish (12-1) won their 11th straight — and their first playoff victory. They’ll face second-seeded Georgia in the Sugar Bowl on Jan. 1. Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman got the biggest win of his three-year career by extending his Irish record to 12 victories over ranked teams in three seasons.
“There’s no place like Notre Dame,” Leonard said. “This is why you come here, this is why I came here — to play for a championship.”
Tenth-seeded Indiana (11-2) completed a magical season by finishing with its second fewest points this season on a cold, brisk night in the first CFP game ever played on a campus site. Both of the Hoosiers’ losses came to top-five opponents. Indiana set a single-season school record for wins but still hasn’t won at Notre Dame since 1898.
Notre Dame took control on its third offensive play when Love scooted around the right side of Indiana’s defense, eluded one tackle and sprinted down the sideline to make it 7-0. He matched Josh Adams’ longest run in school history, set in 2015 against Wake Forest. It was also the longest run in CFP history.
“It’s all about finding a way to get another week,” Freeman said. “It wasn’t easy. But we’re going to enjoy this one and we’ll get another one.”
Love finished with eight carries for 108 yards despite appearing to reinjure his left knee later in the first half.
Indiana never recovered after Notre Dame made it 14-0 early in the second quarter.
Leonard’s 1-yard TD run late in the fourth gave him 15 this season to break Notre Dame’s season record by a quarterback.
Indiana scored both of its touchdowns in the final 1:27.
Notre Dame made it 14-0 on Leonard’s 5-yard TD pass to Jayden Thomas early in the second quarter. The Irish settled for three more field goals, and the defense took care of the rest — allowing just one field goal.
Leonard was 23 of 32 with 201 yards and one interception. Notre Dame receiver Jordan Faison caught seven passes for 89 yards.
Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke turned in another poor game against a top defense, finishing 20 of 33 with 215 yards, with two TDs and one interception, and the Hoosiers rushed for just 63 yards.
“They took it to us,” Indiana coach Curt Cignetti said. “They won, they deserve to win. We didn’t play our best game, but they had a lot to do with that tonight.”
Notre Dame: The Irish have relied on the running game and defense all season — and it was that combination that gave Notre Dame the first playoff win in school history. It may need more out of its passing game to win its first national championship since 1988.
Notre Dame: Plays Georgia in the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Day.
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Alden Gonzalez, ESPN Staff Writer
The Houston Astros and free-agent first baseman Christian Walker have agreed to a three-year, $60 million contract, sources confirmed to ESPN amid multiple reports Friday.
The deal is pending a physical exam, a source told ESPN.
The addition of Walker in all likelihood marks the end of Alex Bregman‘s tenure in Houston, not to mention the Astros’ ill-fated attempts to pry Nolan Arenado from the St. Louis Cardinals. Walker manning first base for the next three years means Isaac Paredes, the 25-year-old corner infielder who was recently acquired from the Chicago Cubs in the Kyle Tucker trade, will probably be Bregman’s replacement at third base.
Walker, 33, is widely regarded as one of the sport’s best defensive first basemen and will also provide some power to the middle of the Astros’ lineup. He slashed .250/.332/.481 with 95 home runs and 281 RBIs with the Arizona Diamondbacks over the last three seasons while accumulating 10.8 FanGraphs wins above replacement, sixth-most among first basemen.
First base had been a conundrum in Houston over these last three seasons, one the high-priced Jose Abreu could not solve. Astros first basemen combined for a .651 OPS last season, fifth-lowest in the majors. Walker, a three-time Gold Glove Award winner, will provide a major boost at that position — particularly as a right-handed hitter in Daikin Park, which features a short left-field fence.
The Astros still need help in their outfield after parting with Tucker one year before he’s scheduled to become a free agent. And Bregman, the heart and soul of an Astros franchise that won two championships and made seven straight appearances in the American League Championship Series dating back to his first full season in the big leagues, must choose a new destination.
The New York Yankees, who expressed interest in Walker this offseason, could be a landing spot for Bregman. So might the Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays or Detroit Tigers, the latter of which is led by Bregman’s former manager, A.J. Hinch.
Astros general manager Dana Brown expressed optimism in bringing Bregman back throughout the offseason, but owner Jim Crane would not meet the $200 million-plus asking price of Bregman’s agent, Scott Boras, prompting an initial pivot to Arenado — before he utilized his no-trade clause to stay in St. Louis — and an agreement with Walker.
Walker declined the D-backs’ qualifying offer earlier this month. By signing him, the Astros, a team that exceeded the luxury-tax threshold last season, will give up their second- and fifth-round picks in the upcoming draft, as well as $1 million from their international-spending pool. The Astros will get back a fourth-round pick once Bregman signs with another team, a development that now feels inevitable.
In the aftermath of their loss to the Tigers in the wild-card round earlier this fall, longtime Astros second baseman Jose Altuve spoke passionately about the importance of bringing Bregman back, saying: “We’re not going to be the same organization without him.”
In many ways, the Walker signing signals a new chapter.
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