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The average number of children women have in the UK is falling faster than any other G7 country since 2010, Sky News commissioned analysis has found.

Research by thinktank the Centre for Progressive Policy (CPP) has discovered that the figure, which is called the fertility rate, has dropped by 18.8%.

That number represents the biggest proportion fall across the G7 in 12 years, between 2010 and the latest statistics released in 2022.

According to CPP analysis, Italy saw the second-largest fall, followed by the United States, Canada, France and then Japan, while Germany saw a rise.

The proportion fall refers to the change in fertility rate compared to what it was in 2010.

Ben Franklin, interim CEO for the CPP, said they believe “austerity and the austerity drive” across the country was “the principal factor” in driving down fertility rates during that period.

Graphic from Adele Robinson's fertility piece

He described it as happening “to a faster extent” in the UK than in other countries because “austerity was quite significant here, and more so than in other countries”.

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CPP research also found that areas with higher deprivation saw faster falls in rates which “demonstrates the impact of government cuts to social security spending that occurred over that time”.

Mr Franklin said that in previous decades falls in fertility rates have been about having “more educated, higher income women”.

“This fall since 2010, and since austerity has happened, principally affected the poorer parts of the country.”

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Low fertility rates can lead to a “top heavy” economy, with more pensioners than working-age people, and subsequently put a strain on the nation’s finances.

2022 saw a drop in the number of births in England and Wales to the lowest level in 20 years.

Emily-Kate Day has one child, her daughter Violet, with her husband – and despite both parents working full time, they still can’t afford a second child.

Emily-Kate Day and her daughter Violet
Image:
Emily-Kate Day and her daughter Violet

“It’s heart-wrenching really,” she says, “because we always wanted a big family and we made the decision last year perhaps not to try for another one because of financial reasons.

“I’d love to have a sibling for Violet, she is desperate for a sibling as well, but financially at the moment with nursery fees it’s impossible.”

If there are fewer future workers some argue it will mean a greater reliance on immigration to support the workforce.

In London, however, and other areas of the country, fertility rates and birth rates – the number of live births per 1,000 people annually – are contributing to schools closing.

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Fertility crisis: Are we leaving it too late?

London councils say lower birth rates are the main reason for a reduction in demand for school places.

Prof David Miles CBE, from the Office for Budget Responsibility Committee, says he thinks concerns about “not enough children” are “somewhat overplayed”.

“There are natural economic forces that will offset the effect of what might otherwise be a declining working population,” he said.

File pic: iStock
Image:
File pic: iStock

Professor Miles added that one such force could be “drawing more people into the labour force” as companies look to older people working part-time.

“Those are economic forces which naturally play out when there is a shift in demand for labour relative to the supply of labour,” he said.

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Air India plane crash victim’s son says he’ll relive his mother’s last moments ‘to the day I die’

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Air India plane crash victim's son says he'll relive his mother's last moments 'to the day I die'

The son of an Air India plane crash victim, who was sitting one row behind the man who survived, has told Sky News he will relive “her last moments” until the day he dies.

Manju Mahesh Patel, 79, was on the London Gatwick-bound plane when it crashed in Ahmedabad shortly after take-off on Thursday.

She was sitting in seat 12D on flight AI 171, the row behind the only person to survive the crash who was sitting in 11A.

In an interview with Sky News, Chirag Mahesh Patel, Manju’s son, said he hopes his mother’s death was “instant” and “painless”.

“To the day I die I will think, ‘what were her last moments?’,” he said.

Pointing to a framed family photograph of Ms Patel at the family home, he added: “I want to remember mum like this.

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“I don’t want to have to go and identify a burnt corpse, your own parent. How does someone, how do you ever get over that? That will be with me, that’s with me for life.”

Ms Patel had been staying in Ahmedabad for the past few months doing charity work at a temple. She was due to be picked up by her son at Gatwick on Thursday night.

The family say they want to remember Manju like this
Image:
A family photo of Chirag Mahesh Patel with his mother

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In tears, Mr Patel described his mother as “very strong” and a woman “who really loved her family”.

“The thing about my mum,” he said, “is her bond with her faith. It’s unbreakable.

“She had ultimate faith… and in times of stress she would always say God’s name… So, I know that upon take-off, I know that she was saying his name.”

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What could have caused the India plane crash?

Mr Patel said that when he realised his mother was on the flight it was just “a normal day” and “it didn’t seem real”.

He said the last time he had spoken to her he had reminded her to take her diabetes medicine and had then missed a call from her at 4am to say she had arrived at the airport.

He described “the most heartbreaking thing” was how much Ms Patel was looking forward to seeing her grandchildren, saying “it was everything to her”.

She had told him she packed her suitcase with lollipops for her six-year-old grandson, and special crisps for her 15-year-old older grandchild.

Manju with her six-year-old grandson
Image:
Ms Patel with her six-year-old grandson

“It’s unimaginable even in my worst nightmare,” he said. “And the thing that kills me… is she was so looking forward to seeing us… she kept saying I bought this for you, I bought that, I bought the things for the kids.”

Mr Patel and his wife are due to fly to India on Saturday night to provide a DNA sample to help identify his mother’s remains.

He expressed his anger at what he called a “disgusting” and “appalling” lack of communication from Air India – which he said passed his details to a hospital but never contacted him personally.

He described feeling “neglected” by the airline, which he said would only offer him an Air India flight – and no help organising accommodation.

Mr Patel said he refused to get on the Gatwick flight back to Ahmedabad and has booked with another provider to travel to India instead.

Manju with her elder grandchild
Image:
Ms Patel with her elder grandchild

“I said [to the airline] all of this happened on Thursday, you’re telling me on Friday afternoon, do you want that flight this evening? That one crashed? The one coming back where 172 goes out? They asked do you want Air India 172? I said how can you ask me that. My mum just died on Air India.”

Mr Patel said he wanted “answers” and transparency in any air accident investigation.

Air India said in a statement: “Air India stands in solidarity with the families of the passengers who tragically lost their lives in the recent accident. Our teams on the ground are doing everything possible to extend care and support during this incredibly difficult time.

“As part of our continued efforts, Air India will be providing an interim payment of ₹25 lakh or approximately £21,000 each to the families of the deceased and to the survivor, to help address immediate financial needs. This is in addition to the ₹1 crore or approximately £85,000 support already announced by Tata Sons.

“All of us at Air India are deeply saddened by this loss. We mourn with the families, loved ones, and everyone affected.”

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Families in India wait for bodies of relatives

The company’s chief executive and managing director Campbell Wilson said in a video message posted on social media that over 200 “trained caregivers” were now in place to offer dedicated assistance to families, along with counselling and other services.

He said Air India was in the process of completing precautionary safety checks on Boeing 787 aircraft as directed by regulator the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA), which would “be completed within the timelines prescribed by the regulator”.

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Mr Wilson said he had also visited the crash site and said other members of the management team would remain present “for as long as it takes”.

The aircraft’s data recorder, often referred to as a black box, has been recovered and will form part of the investigation into the worst aviation crash in a decade.

‘He was too young’: Families grieve those lost in Air India crash

By Lisa Dowd, Midlands correspondent, in Derby

It was an emotional service at Derby’s Geeta Bhawan Hindu temple, as dozens of friends, colleagues and neighbours gathered to remember Dr Prateek Joshi, his wife Komi, their daughter Miraya, and twin sons Nakul and Pradyut.

Some wiped tears from their eyes, as a colleague was asked spontaneously to pay tribute to Dr Joshi, who had been bringing his family to live in the city, when the Air India flight they were on crashed seconds after take-off.

People cry at Geeta Bhawan Hindu temple during a service in Derby for Dr Prateek Joshi, his wife Komi, their daughter and twin sons

“He was too young, too much still to give, too much still to be done, too much to offer,” his friend told worshippers.

“He was taken from us in a very cruel and abrupt way, and his family as well, and we all think about his family back in India who is missing a son, missing a daughter-in-law and missing all their grandchildren who they’ll never see growing up.”

Derby South MP Catherine Atkinson said Dr Joshi, who was a radiologist at the Royal Derby hospital, had been “contributing to our NHS and the health of so many in our city and beyond”.

She said his wife was a pathologist who had resigned from her job in India.

“I won’t forget the photograph of them on the plane, full of optimism about their new adventure,” she said, as her voice broke.

“The losses make us all hug our families and loved ones a little closer and remind us how precious our time together is.”

A tribute to Dr Prateek Joshi, his wife Komi, their daughter Miraya, and twin sons Nakul and Pradyut, at Geeta Bhawan Hindu temple in Derby

Dr Joshi was described as a “warm, smiling man, full of joy” who enjoyed walking in the Peak District and who had discovered “a love of fish and chips”.

His neighbour and colleague Manoj Ramtohal told Sky News Dr Joshi always had time for people.

“He was very caring and very polite, very friendly, you couldn’t meet a better man than Prateek,” he said.

“We lost a very, very talented doctor.”

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Sir Keir Starmer to launch new national inquiry into grooming gangs

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Sir Keir Starmer to launch new national inquiry into grooming gangs

Sir Keir Starmer is to launch a new national inquiry into grooming gangs.

It comes after a government-requested audit into the scale of grooming gangs across the country concluded a nationwide probe was necessary.

The prime minister previously argued a national inquiry was not necessary, but has changed his view following an audit into group-based child sexual abuse led by Baroness Casey, which is set to be published next week.

“[Baroness Casey’s] position when she started the audit was that there was not a real need for a national inquiry over and above what was going on,” he told reporters travelling with him to the G7 summit in Canada.

“She has looked at the material… and she has come to the view that there should be a national inquiry on the basis of what she has seen.

“I have read every single word of her report, and I am going to accept her recommendation. That is the right thing to do on the basis of what she has put in her audit.

“I asked her to do that job to double check on this; she has done that job for me, and having read her report… I shall now implement her recommendations.”

Grooming gangs timeline: What happened, what inquiries there were and how Starmer was involved

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Grooming gangs: What happened?

The near 200-page report is to be published next week and is expected to warn that white British girls were “institutionally ignored for fear of racism”.

One person familiar with the report said it details the institutional failures in treating young girls and cites a decade of lost action from the Jay Review, set up in 2014 to investigate grooming gangs in Rotherham.

The report is also expected to link illegal immigration with the exploitation of young girls.

The government had initially resisted a new inquiry, insisting that it first wanted to implement recommendations from previous inquiries, such as the Jay Review, into child sexual exploitation.

It also allowed five councils to set up their own investigations into their communities rather than hold a national inquiry.

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From April: Will all grooming gang inquiries go ahead?

The grooming gang scandal came back into the headlines at the beginning of the year after Elon Musk attacked Sir Keir and safeguarding minister Jess Philips for failing children.

The prime minister and Ms Phillips hit back, with Sir Keir citing his record of prosecuting abusers as director of public prosecutions, while Ms Phillips has long been a campaigner against domestic violence.

At the time, she told Sky News that Mr Musk’s claims were “ridiculous” and that she would be led by what victims have to say, not him.

Following the row between the tech billionaire and the UK government, the prime minister asked Baroness Casey to conduct an audit of all the evidence to see if a national inquiry was required.

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Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative leader, said: “Keir Starmer doesn’t know what he thinks unless an official report has told him so.

“Just like he dismissed concerns about the winter fuel payment and then had to U-turn, just like he needed the Supreme Court to tell him what a woman is, he had to be led by the nose to make this correct decision here.

“I’ve been repeatedly calling for a full national inquiry since January. It’s about time he recognised he made a mistake and apologise for six wasted months.

“But this must not be the end of the matter. There are many, many more questions that need answering to ensure this inquiry is done properly and quickly.

“Many survivors of the grooming gangs will be relieved that this is finally happening, but they need a resolution soon, not in 10 years’ time. Justice delayed is justice denied.”

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Weather warnings: 30,000 lightning strikes hit UK – with roads flooded and landslip disrupting trains

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Weather warnings: 30,000 lightning strikes hit UK - with roads flooded and landslip disrupting trains

Roads have been flooded and a landslip has disrupted trains as the UK was hit by tens of thousands of lightning strikes during thunderstorms – with severe weather warnings in place for large parts of the country.

It follows the hottest day of the year on Friday, which saw a high of 29.4C (84.9F) in Santon Downham in Suffolk.

The Met Office has issued an amber weather warning until 6pm across the South West, North East and North of England, Wales and much of Scotland.

Check the weather forecast where you are

It said there had been more thann 30,000 lightning strikes during the night, with the “vast majority” over the sea.

The Met Office has warned some areas could see 30-50mm of rain in a few hours, while a few locations could reach up to 80mm.

At the same time, strong wind gusts and hail accompanying the storms could potentially bring road flooding, difficult driving conditions, power cuts and flooding of homes and businesses.

The Environment Agency urged the public not to drive through flood water, reminding drivers that “just 30cm of flowing water is enough to move your car.”

A further yellow warning is in force in the eastern half of Northern Ireland from 6am to 6pm on Saturday, while a similar warning has been in place across the South East of England overnight following an amber alert on Friday.

Thunderstorm warnings are in place until Saturday evening. Pic: Met Office
Image:
Thunderstorm warnings are in place until Saturday evening. Pic: Met Office

Kent experienced heavy rainfall overnight, with flooded roads in parts of Dover, while a fire in a residential building in St Leonards-on-Sea on Friday night was likely caused by a lightning strike, the East Sussex Fire and Rescue Service say.

Devon received five flood warnings overnight by the Environment Agency, alongside 46 flood alerts in the South West, South East and Midlands.

A further six flood alerts have been put in place by Natural Resources Wales in South Wales.

National Rail said a landslip had stopped all services between Exeter St Davids and Okehampton, with the weather conditions meaning it is not safe for engineers to reach the site. Disruption is expected until around 1pm.

Other rail operators also warned customers to check for updates on services on Saturday morning.

Heathrow Airport apologised to passengers late on Friday night for flights delayed by “adverse weather conditions”.

Sky News weather producer Steff Gaulter said: “The most active thunderstorms are over parts of Wales, Northern Ireland, Northern England and Scotland, and some are still bringing localised downpours and strong winds.

“The storms will continue northwards, becoming largely confined to Northern Ireland and Scotland by the afternoon. Elsewhere will see a mixture of sunshine and showers, with the showers tending to ease during the day.

“Then from tomorrow an area of high pressure will start to stretch towards us, and the weather next week is looking far calmer and quieter.”

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Despite the risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms, not everyone will see rain during the day, with the driest and brightest weather expected in the South East, which will remain very warm.

The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has issued its first yellow heat-health alert of the year, active until 8am on Sunday in the east of England, East Midlands, London, and the South East.

Under the UKHSA and the Met Office’s weather-health alerting system, a yellow alert means there could be an increased use of healthcare services by vulnerable people.

A yellow alert warns of a possible spike in vulnerable people accessing healthcare, and health risks for the over-65s and those with conditions such as respiratory and cardiovascular diseases.

While scientists have not assessed the role of global warming in this short-term event, in general they expect more heavy downpours as the climate changes.

That’s largely because hotter air can hold more moisture and so releases more water when it rains.

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