Budget 2024: What are Labour’s fiscal rules and could Rachel Reeves change them to raise more money?
Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver her first budget at the end of October, providing the first chance for her to change the fiscal rules.
Upon entering government in July, the government said the Conservatives left it with a £22bn black hole, so the chancellor is expected to use the 30 October budget to raise some of that.
Ms Reeves said in November, when asked if she would consider changing the debt target, she was “not going to fiddle the figures or make something to get different results”.
However, she is being urged to alter the rules to let the government access £57bn, according to the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) thinktank.
And during Prime Minister’s Questions on 9 October, Sir Keir Starmer refused to answer if he agreed with the chancellor’s November statement, prompting some to speculate the government may change the fiscal rules.
Sky News looks at what a fiscal rule is, what the Labour government’s rules are and how they could change.
Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves at the Labour conference. Pic: PA
What are fiscal rules?
A fiscal rule is a limit or restriction governments put in place to constrain how much they can borrow to fund public spending.
They can be set by an independent body but since 1997 UK governments have set their own constraints.
Rules apply to the fiscal deficit – the gap between public expenditure and tax revenues in a year – the public debt – the total amount borrowed to finance past deficits – or public spending relative to GDP.
In 2010, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) was set up to remove the Treasury’s ultimate control over the forecasts that underpin fiscal policy.
The Economics Observatory said the OBR’s creation means fiscal rules should be seen as an “expression of a government’s objectives, not something that dictates those objectives”.
👉 Click here to follow Politics at Jack and Sam’s wherever you get your podcasts 👈
What are the current fiscal rules?
The Labour Party’s manifesto laid out the new government’s fiscal rules, describing them as “non-negotiable”. They are:
1) The current budget must move into balance so day-to-day costs are met by revenues
2) Debt must be falling as a percentage of GDP by the fifth year of the forecast – this was carried over from the Conservative government.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Will Rachel Reeves U-turn on her budget promise?
How could the fiscal rules change?
The rules themselves are not expected to change.
However, the chancellor could change how debt is calculated, which could in turn change how much debt the UK officially has and give Ms Reeves room to borrow more.
Ms Reeves told the Labour conference “borrowing for investment” is the only plausible solution to the UK’s productivity crisis.
By changing her definition of debt, she could find up to £50bn in additional headroom.
However, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) has warned against borrowing that much money.
Paul Johnson, director of the IFS, said Labour’s pledge not to increase income tax, national insurance or VAT, coupled with a promise to balance the current budget, means she will not be able to free up additional resources for day-to-day spending.
Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey introduced quantitative tightening in 2022
Quantitative Easing
An idea the chancellor is said to be weighing up is excluding the £20bn to £50bn annual losses being incurred by the Bank of England winding down its quantitative easing (QE) bond-buying programme.
Since the 2008 financial crisis, the Bank of England has repeatedly used QE to stimulate the economy and meet the 2% inflation target – creating £875bn of new money in 13 years.
During QE, the Bank buys bonds (debt security issued by the government) to push up their prices and bring down long-term interest rates on savings and loans.
Read more:
How fiscal rules are impeding long-term investments – and what Rachel Reeves can do about it
Abolishing national insurance ‘could take several parliaments’
Since November 2022, the Bank has been carrying out quantitative tightening, where it does not buy other bonds when bonds it holds mature, or by actively selling bonds to investors, or a combination of the two.
The aim is not to affect interest rates or inflation but to ensure it is possible QE can happen again in the future, if needed.
In February, the cross-party Treasury committee raised concerns quantitative tightening could have losses of between £50bn and £130bn and said it could have “huge implications” for public spending over the next decade.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
What will the budget include?
Exclude new institutions
There are suggestions the chancellor could move GB Energy and the National Wealth Fund, both created by Labour, off the government’s books.
Andy King, a former senior official at the OBR, estimates that could unlock a further £15bn for borrowing.
Exclude projects
Another option would be to exclude certain projects from the debt calculation.
Government officials have said they are working on a plan to publish estimates for how much new capital projects could stimulate growth and how much money they would generate directly for the Treasury.
Nigel Farage has told Sky News he “can’t be pushed or bullied” by anybody after Elon Musk said the Reform MP “doesn’t have what it takes” to lead his party.
In an interview with Sky’s political correspondent Ali Fortescue, Mr Farage said he has spoken with the billionaire owner of X since his criticism on 5 January, when Mr Musk said: “The Reform Party needs a new leader. Farage doesn’t have what it takes.”
Politics latest: Reeves arriving in China for economic talks
Asked if the pair are still friends, Mr Farage said: “Of course we’re friends. He just says what he thinks at any moment in time.”
He added he has “been in touch” with Mr Musk, though wouldn’t divulge what they had discussed.
“Look, he said lots of supportive things. He said one thing that wasn’t supportive. I mean, that’s just the way it is,” Mr Farage said.
Musk and Farage met in December. Pic: PA
Asked if he was afraid to criticise the tech mogul, the Clacton MP said the situation was “the opposite”, and he openly disagreed with Mr Musk on his views on far-right activist Tommy Robinson.
Mr Farage said: “What he [Musk] was saying online was that effectively Tommy Robinson was a political prisoner and I wouldn’t go along with that.
“If I had gone along with that, he wouldn’t have put out a tweet that was against me.
“By the way, you know, I can’t be pushed or bullied or made to change by anybody.
“I stick to what I believe.”
Mr Musk has endorsed Robinson and claimed he was “telling the truth” about grooming gangs, writing on X: “Free Tommy Robinson”.
But Mr Farage said that Robinson, who is serving an 18-month jail term for contempt of court, isn’t welcome in Reform UK and neither are his supporters.
He said: “If people within Reform think Tommy Robinson should be a member of Reform and play a central role in Reform, that disagreement is absolutely fundamental.
“I’ve never wanted to work with people who were active in the BNP. I’ve made that clear right throughout the last decade of my on/off political career. So that’s what the point of difference is.”
Despite their disagreement, Mr Farage said he is confident Mr Musk will continue to support Reform and “may well” still give money to it.
The entrepreneur has previously spoken positively about Reform UK and there have been suggestions he could make a multi-million-pound donation in its favour.
Devolution plans ‘denial of democracy’
Mr Farage was speaking from Reform’s South East of England Conference, one of a series of regional events aimed at building up the party’s support base.
Elsewhere in the interview, he hit out at the Labour government’s devolution plans which could see some local elections scheduled for May postponed.
This would apply when councils seek permission to reorganise, so that smaller district authorities merge with other nearby ones to give them more sway over their area.
Mr Farage, who is hoping to make gains in the spring contests, claimed the plans are not about devolution but about “elections being cancelled”.
“I thought only dictators cancelled elections. This is unbelievable and devolution or a change to local government structures is being used as an excuse,” he said.
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage earlier this month. Pic: PA
He claimed Tory-controlled councils are “grabbing it like it’s a life belt”, because they fear losing seats to Reform.
“It’s an absolute denial of democracy,” he added.
Mr Farage was also asked why many Reform members don’t like to speak on camera about why they support his party.
He said he did not accept there was a toxicity associated with Reform and claimed there was “institutional bias against anybody that isn’t left of centre”.
Specialist search teams, police dogs and divers have been dispatched to find two sisters who vanished in Aberdeen three days ago.
Eliza and Henrietta Huszti, both 32, were last seen on CCTV in the city’s Market Street at Victoria Bridge at about 2.12am on Tuesday.
The siblings were captured crossing the bridge and turning right onto a footpath next to the River Dee in the direction of Aberdeen Boat Club.
Henrietta Huszti. Pic: Police Scotland
Eliza Huszti. Pic: Police Scotland
Police Scotland has launched a major search and said it is carrying out “extensive inquires” in an effort to find the women.
Chief Inspector Darren Bruce said: “Local officers, led by specialist search advisors, are being assisted by resources including police dogs and our marine unit.”
Aberdeenshire Drone Services told Sky News it has offered to help in the search and is waiting to hear back from Police Scotland.
CCTV of the sisters. Pic: Police Scotland
Read more from Sky News:
Trump to be sentenced today over porn star hush money
‘It’s an apocalypse’ – families return to homes reduced to ruins by wildfires
The sisters, from Aberdeen city centre, are described as slim with long brown hair.
Police said the Torry side of Victoria Bridge where the sisters were last seen contains many commercial and industrial units, with searches taking place in the vicinity.
The force urged businesses in and around the South Esplanade and Menzies Road area to review CCTV footage recorded in the early hours of Tuesday in case it captured anything of significance.
Drivers with relevant dashcam footage are also urged to come forward.
CI Bruce added: “We are continuing to speak to people who know Eliza and Henrietta and we urge anyone who has seen them or who has any information regarding their whereabouts to please contact 101.”
-
Sports2 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports9 months agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports1 year agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports3 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment2 years agoGame-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike
-
Business2 years agoBank of England’s extraordinary response to government policy is almost unthinkable | Ed Conway