LCS expert predictions: Yankees or Guardians? Mets or Dodgers?
The 2024 MLB playoffs are down to just four teams after an exciting division series round saw the New York Mets eliminate the Philadelphia Phillies and the Los Angeles Dodgers defeat their division rivals, the San Diego Padres, in a thrilling win-or-go-home Game 5.
Now that the matchups are set — Mets-Dodgers and Cleveland Guardians–New York Yankees — it’s time for some (more) predictions! We asked our MLB experts to weigh in on who will advance to the World Series, which players will earn MVP honors in the league championship series and the themes we’ll all be talking about in the week to come. We’ll also have our experts explain why their initial Fall Classic predictions are still in play — or went very wrong.
LCS previews: Mets-Dodgers | Guardians-Yankees | Bracket
Jump to: NLCS | ALCS | Predictions we got right | … and wrong |
National League Championship Series
Los Angeles Dodgers (8 votes)
In how many games: Seven games (2 votes), six games (4), five games (2)
MVP if Dodgers win: Shohei Ohtani (5), Mookie Betts (2), Teoscar Hernandez (1)
Who picked the Dodgers: Tristan Cockcroft, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Eric Karabell, Tim Kurkjian, Buster Olney, David Schoenfield, Xavier Scruggs
New York Mets (6 votes)
In how many games: Seven games (4 votes), six games (2)
MVP if Mets win: Francisco Lindor (2), Sean Manaea (1), Starling Marte (1), Brandon Nimmo (1), Mark Vientos (1)
Who picked the Mets: Jorge Castillo, Paul Hembekides, Tim Keown, Kiley McDaniel, Jesse Rogers, Jeff Passan
The one thing we’ll all be talking about:
The Mets’ unbelievable ride to the World Series has included beating a division rival (Braves) to clinch their playoff berth, dismissing David Stearns’ former employer (Brewers) in the NL Wild Card Series, and eliminating another division rival and NL pennant favorite (Phillies) in the NLDS. They’ll add defeating the organization Steve Cohen has openly said he has hoped to replicate since buying the Mets before bidding to overthrow their big brother in the Bronx. — Castillo
As much early attention as there will be on the Ohtani vs. Lindor showdown, ultimately the focus is going to end up on Dodgers manager Dave Roberts. Whether he makes good decisions or not is pretty much irrelevant. Either the Dodgers come up short again, or they don’t. This of course is not fair, and beating the Padres helped, but Roberts isn’t out of the woods yet. — Doolittle
Walker Buehler is back. It has been a struggle in his return from a second Tommy John surgery, but Buehler actually looked pretty good in Game 3 of the NLDS. He experienced one awful, six-run second inning in which he was mostly let down by his defense but still managed to get through the fifth, freeing up a bullpen game the following night. Buehler loves this stage. And he lines up for Games 2 and 6 at Dodger Stadium. He’ll deliver. — Gonzalez
With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, and hearing the postgame interviews of the Dodgers, how could anyone have ever wondered if they would win? The gritty, gutty, respectful Dodgers work against all disadvantages stacked before them and win in 5. — Olney
With Freddie Freeman hobbled — presumably for the rest of the postseason — the onus on Ohtani to produce atop the Dodgers’ lineup is greater than ever. After a strong Game 1 of the division series, Ohtani struggled. He will be squarely in the middle of every conversation about the Dodgers, with the primary question being: Can Ohtani carry the Dodgers to the World Series in his first season with the team? — Passan
Just how incredible the trio of Manaea, Luis Severino and Jose Quintana continue to pitch. They’ll give the Dodgers fits – and we won’t exactly understand how they’re doing it. — Rogers
Ohtani. We’re going to be talking about the five home runs Ohtani hits in the series — including the go-ahead blast in Game 7. — Schoenfield
American League Championship Series
New York Yankees (12 votes)
In how many games: Seven games (5 votes), six games (6), five games (1)
MVP if Yankees win: Aaron Judge (7), Juan Soto (3), Gerrit Cole (1), Gleyber Torres (1)
Who picked the Yankees: Jorge Castillo, Tristan Cockcroft, Bradford Doolittle, Alden Gonzalez, Paul Hembekides, Eric Karabell, Tim Keown, Tim Kurkjian, Kiley McDaniel, Jeff Passan, Jesse Rogers, Xavier Scruggs
Cleveland Guardians (1 vote)
In how many games: Seven games (1)
MVP if Guardians win: Jose Ramirez
Who picked the Guardians: David Schoenfield
The one thing we’ll all be talking about:
The first Subway Series in nearly a quarter-century will arrive with a juicy subplot: ALCS MVP Juan Soto going against the team most everyone believes will be the Yankees’ competition for his services this winter. — Castillo
No matter what happens, the spotlight will be on Aaron Judge. If he goes off, then it’s how he overcame his postseason struggles. If he doesn’t, it’ll be how those struggles have persisted. I wish this didn’t have to be discussed every single time the camera finds Judge during the game, but only he can make it stop. — Doolittle
Here’s one thing we won’t be talking about: Aaron Judge’s slump. Much like he shook off a rough April to put together an MVP regular season, Judge will emerge from a sluggish ALDS — in which he went 2-for-13 with one extra-base hit — to carry the Yankees into the World Series. — Gonzalez
How much can Stephen Vogt get out of his bullpen? The Guardians’ greatest strength this season has been the impermeability of the late innings on account of a tremendous group of relievers, and Vogt leaned on them heavily. Cade Smith ranked fifth in the AL in innings pitched among relievers. Hunter Gaddis was sixth and Emmanuel Clase eighth. Vogt’s ability to ride his relief arms will continue to be the question about the Guardians until their season concludes. — Passan
How much money Juan Soto is going to make. He’ll be key against the Guardians righties in his best playoff series to date. That include a bunch of walks but, hey, getting on is getting on. — Rogers
How the vaunted Cleveland bullpen shut down Aaron Judge and Juan Soto to carry the Guardians to the World Series. — Schoenfield
World Series predictions we’re right about — so far
David Schoenfield: Hey, I had the Dodgers-Guardians at the start of the playoffs — when everyone else was jumping on the Padres bandwagon. Considering the Dodgers advanced without Ohtani doing much, it feels like it’s time for him to have a monster series to carry the Dodgers to the World Series — as the bullpen will do for Cleveland.
Kiley McDaniel: I had the Dodgers in the World Series, but the only problem is … I had them losing to the Orioles. I thought the AL was wide open and leaned toward youth, a deep lineup and an ace, while the NL basically would play out chalk. I’m better at predicting prospects than the playoffs, especially when the series are three- and five-gamers thus far.
World Series predictions gone wrong
Jorge Castillo: Astros over Phillies. I believed the Astros’ experience and starting rotation would carry them through the wide-open American League. Turns out, neither matters much in a three-game series against a red-hot team. As for the Phillies, who could’ve predicted their bats would disappear? Picking against the Mets is foolish at this point.
Tristan Cockcroft: Padres over Yankees. Whether it had happened in the division or championship series — heads up, MLB, you should really restore reseeding to the playoff bracket — Padres-Dodgers was a matchup I regarded as a top-notch league championship, and the Padres got close — within two runs in the deciding game. These Mets have impressed me in October, and it’d sure be fun to forecast another Subway Series, but too many of these feel-good playoff stories tend to run out of gas a little in advance of the finish line.
Alden Gonzalez: I had the Astros and the Padres facing off in the World Series, and neither advanced to their respective championship series. While coming up short, both teams emphasized an important point about October baseball: Even the best offenses can go cold if you have detailed game plans and throw an assortment of high-leverage arms at them.
Eric Karabell: Obviously it was silly to predict a 2022 World Series rematch, so let’s go with 1977, 1978 and 1981 instead. Enjoy, traditionalists!
Tim Keown: Turns out the Padres fell a couple of rounds short of beating the Yankees in the World Series, as I predicted, but who doesn’t love a Subway Series? It doesn’t seem likely the Dodgers — despite their bullpen mastery in the NLDS — can cobble together enough pitching to win a seven-game series.
Jeff Passan: The less said about my World Series prediction the better. I’ll leave it at this: I did not anticipate four relievers with a collective ERA of 2.20 during the regular season — Carlos Estevez, Matt Strahm, Jeff Hoffman and Orion Kerkering — posting a 12.10 ERA in the postseason.
Jesse Rogers: My World Series pick — the Phillies — went out quickly, which means the team that beat it should be taken seriously. And it helps that the $300 million Mets can play the underdog card again simply because they’re facing the Dodgers. I’ll also lean into this trend: The team that has beaten Milwaukee in the playoffs always wins the pennant. That’s the Mets.
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Kristen Shilton
TORONTO — The Maple Leafs‘ offense was missing in action again in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference semifinals Wednesday night, as a 6-1 loss to the Florida Panthers now has Toronto facing playoff elimination.
The Leafs, who were shut out 2-0 in Game 4, didn’t score until the final two minutes of Game 5 and now trail 3-2 in the best-of-seven series after holding a 2-0 lead.
Toronto’s top skaters were, again, invisible. Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander have yet to record a goal in the second round. And now the Leafs will have to log consecutive wins to extend their postseason.
“I think everybody’s got to look in the mirror,” Matthews said. “Myself included. Everybody wants to be better. Everybody wants to win.”
Matthews has just three goals in the Leafs’ last 21 games. He was third on the team in regular-season scoring, with 33 goals in 67 games.
It wasn’t just Matthews, though. Toronto was lifeless from the start of Game 5 and never seemed to challenge Florida at either end of the ice.
The Panthers heavily outplayed the Leafs throughout the first period, and it was defenseman Aaron Ekblad who finally beat goaltender Joseph Woll to give Florida a 1-0 lead through 20 minutes.
While Woll kept Toronto in a tight matchup, it was clear already the Leafs were struggling to keep up with the Panthers.
“We played slow,” Toronto coach Craig Berube said. “They were fast, they were on us, they were hungrier. That’s the first period, and that sets the tone for the game. It is hard to explain it. We all need to be better, me included. You can’t start the game that way, that’s a big thing for me.”
The Panthers opened the floodgates in the second period, helped by a landslide of Leafs mistakes. Dmitry Kulikov extended Florida’s lead with a goal tipped in by Leafs forward Scott Laughton‘s stick. Then Marner’s attempt to execute a spinning backhand pass in his own zone led to a turnover in the neutral zone that was picked up by Jesper Boqvist and snapped past Woll to give Florida a 3-0 lead midway through the second frame.
Boqvist entered the lineup in Game 5 to replace the injured Evan Rodrigues, who left Sunday’s Game 4 following a hit from Leafs defenseman Oliver Ekman-Larsson.
Niko Mikkola made it 4-0 before the end of the period, giving three Florida defensemen goals on the night.
By the time A.J. Greer scored Florida’s fifth goal — the first playoff make of his career — in the third period, it was time for Toronto to make a change in net, with Woll being replaced by Matt Murray.
Frustrated fans, who had booed the Leafs off their own ice to end the second period, began throwing items onto the sheet, including a Matthews jersey. People were exiting in droves by early in the third period.
“We didn’t give them much reason to stick around,” Matthews said.
Woll finished the game with five goals on 25 shots for an .800 save percentage.
Florida wasn’t done after Woll’s departure, though, with Sam Bennett adding a power play goal to give the Panthers a 6-0 lead halfway through the third period.
Toronto’s top skaters have had no response for Florida’s suffocating pressure — or Sergei Bobrovsky‘s impressive play.
Since giving up 13 goals to Toronto through the series’ first three games, Bobrovsky has been airtight in denying the Leafs any opportunity to score.
Berube tried making adjustments. He inserted David Kampf and Nicholas Robertson into the lineup for Game 5 to try and generate a spark, and moved Max Pacioretty to the top line during the game in an effort to generate some momentum. Nothing seemed to help.
Toronto hadn’t registered a goal since 10:56 of the third period of Game 3 until Robertson put one past Bobrovsky with 90 seconds left Wednesday night. It was all too little, too late.
“Tonight, it wasn’t a good game for anybody,” Berube said. “Anybody. All of us. it was not a good game.”
Leafs defenseman Chris Tanev was quick to shoulder the burden of Toronto’s defeat, echoing a refrain heard around the locker room from players determined not to let this be the penultimate game of their season.
“I’ll take responsibility,” Tanev said. “I need to be better. If I’m a minus player [at minus-2 in Game 5], we’re probably not going to win the game. It’s on me. I’ll take responsibility for the game.”
Game 6 is Friday in Florida.
LAS VEGAS — Kasperi Kapanen scored on a scramble in front of the net at 7:14 of overtime, and the Edmonton Oilers beat the Vegas Golden Knights 1-0 in Game 5 on Wednesday night to advance to the Western Conference finals for the second year in a row.
The Oilers, who last season made it to the Stanley Cup Final before losing in seven games to Florida, will play Dallas or Winnipeg in the next round. The Stars, who lead their series 3-1, will go for a series win Thursday night.
Kapanen’s goal backed up another shutout performance from goalie Stuart Skinner, who made 24 saves and drew several chants of “Stu! Stu!” from Oilers fans in the crowd. Skinner, who was benched two games into the playoffs, also blanked the Golden Knights in Game 4. This was his third start in a row in replacing injured Calvin Pickard.
Adin Hill made 29 saves for Vegas.
Both teams also were involved in the two most recent scoreless playoff games to reach overtime. The Oilers lost to Winnipeg on May 21, 2021, five days after the Golden Knights were defeated by Minnesota.
Edmonton’s only other 1-0 overtime playoff victory occurred in 1997 over Dallas. Vegas has yet to win a postseason game by that score in OT.
The Golden Knights played without captain Mark Stone because of an upper-body injury that caused him to sit out most of Game 3 on Saturday. He played in Game 4 on Monday but was far from being at full health.
Neither team scored through the first two periods, and prime scoring chances were at a premium. There were only five high-danger chances, according to Natural Stat Trick, and the Golden Knights had four of them.
But each team had a grade-A chance early in the third period. Vegas’ Brett Howden whiffed on a tap-in after taking a fantastic pass from Jack Eichel, and shortly after Edmonton’s Leon Draisaitl failed to convert on a breakaway. Connor McDavid had a chance on a 2-on-1 to end the game in regulation but was denied by Hill with 1:06 left.
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