Russia’s oil trade is rising as record volumes of Russian crude are carried on ‘dark fleet’ vessels
A Russian-chartered oil tanker in the sea off Morocco in an area identified by maritime technology company Windward as a hub for smuggling oil.
Europa Press | Getty Images
Recent data shows the discount on Russian oil narrowing and exports increasing despite the G-7 price cap on Russian petroleum exports and U.S. sanctions.
According to Clearview Energy Partners, Russian crude prices over the last four weeks have averaged about six cents below the Brent crude price. That is far off the trading discount when the cap was first put in place. When the cap was fully phased in, in February 2023, Russian crude was selling at a 30% discount. A year ago, the discount was about 16%.
Ukraine allies, including the U.S., have banned the import of Russian crude, while a price cap imposed on Russian oil by the G7 countries, the European Union and Australia bans the use of Western maritime services such as insurance, flagging and transportation when tankers carry Russian oil priced at or above $60 a barrel to nations where a ban is not enforced.
In a recent report to clients, Clearview Energy Partners characterized the G-7 price cap on Russian petroleum exports to third countries as “increasingly loose.”
Kevin Book, managing director of research at Clearview Energy Partners, told CNBC that despite the G-7’s June and September calls for improving the price cap, and recent guidance urging parties to Russian petroleum transactions to better scrutinize cargoes, “a U.S. pinch on Russian petroleum seems unlikely until after the election.”
“A cap enforcement crackdown runs the risk of driving up crude prices,” he said. “Plus, using ‘secondary’ sanctions to enforce the cap could push reputable insurers out of the Russian crude game entirely, leaving the market to potentially insolvent stand-ins.”
Book explained that part of the narrowing of the discount is a result of Russian oil finding additional buyers, including India and China.
Record volumes of sanctioned Russian oil were carried by the “dark fleet” and known sanctioned tankers without known insurance over September, according to a recent report from Lloyd’s List.
The Lloyd’s List Intelligence unit analysis of data from energy cargo tracking firm Vortexa revealed that 69% of all crude shipped in September was carried on dark fleet tankers and 18% was carried on tankers owned by Russian government-controlled Sovcomflot. It is the most volume moved since tracking of the monthly dark fleet data began in mid-2022 (measured by deadweight capacity of vessels.) In May, 54% was recorded, the previous high.
Chinese and Indian oil traders, refiners, and port authorities were the drivers of this growth.
Lloyd’s List determines if a tanker is part of the dark fleet based on factors including if the ship is 15 years or older, is anonymously owned or has a corporate structure designed to conceal ownership, is handling sanctioned oil trade, and is using deceptive shipping practices. Its analysis showed a flurry of flag-hopping, where a vessel changes its country registration, as well as ownership and management changes amongst the vessels in the dark fleet to avoid detection.
The dark fleet data does not include Russia’s Sovcomflot or Iran’s National Iranian Tanker Co.
Its data revealed that 5% of all Russian oil in September was transported by 11 tankers, with nine of those vessels sanctioned by the UK or EU between July and September and owned by the Russian government-controlled tanker company Sovcomflot. The remaining vessels were sanctioned by the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control for breaching sanctions on Syrian and Iranian oil. Those vessels are the Eternal Peace and Nebulax.
Some of the Sovcomflot tankers that Lloyd’s List identified in its report were sanctioned by the UK or EU between July and September. Some tankers changed vessel names, reflagged the vessel’s origin to Barbados, or redomiciled registered ownership to Seychelles and changed their ship management to a newly incorporated UAE-based ship manager, Avebury Shipmanagement.
Greece-owned tankers have shipped 23% of oil from Russia in September, consistently over the last three months, according to Lloyd’s List. The majority of the UK- and EU-sanctioned tankers have already discharged their oil in China.
Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said despite the price cap, some ship owners have decided that it was extremely profitable to have their vessels become part of the dark fleet and risk United States and EU sanctions.
“After all, Russian oil continues to be purchased by Chinese and Indian refiners with little repercussions from the U.S. or EU,” said Lipow.
A Treasury spokesperson told CNBC, “Two years since the price cap was implemented, it is unsurprising that Putin is still sinking money into building and maintaining a shadow fleet to escape the Coalition’s sanctions: that evasion costs the Kremlin, and diverts money that would otherwise be going to the battlefield. The Price Cap Coalition continues to engage with industry to ensure compliance with the price cap and to increase Putin’s costs of going outside it.”
The number of uninsured vessels carrying sanctioned oil also increased, according to Lloyd’s List, with some 201 of the 310 tankers tracked not having insurance with the 12 clubs that form the International Group of P&I Clubs. That represented 68% of the vessels when measured by deadweight, and the lowest number of tankers tracked with IG club insurance, surpassing 67% uninsured recorded in July and August.
Lipow said the oil market is pricing in a greater probability of a war between Iran and Israel that could impact supply.
“The biggest risk to the oil market is the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, and while unlikely, if it were to happen, oil prices would rise $30 per barrel,” he said. Despite the hostilities, oil prices remain under pressure, he said, as increased production from the U.S., Canada and Guyana adds to the supply picture while OPEC+ delays the restoration of its production cuts.
The increased use of dark fleet vessels comes with greater maritime safety and environmental risks.
Lloyd’s List warned in a recent note that shipping safety has become a “casualty of economic sanctions” with attempts to enhance sanctions policy leading to greater ranks of tankers determined to evade it.
Insurance giant Allianz said in May that dark fleet tankers had been linked to more than 50 accidents.
Lipow told CNBC if these vessels were to be involved in an accident that resulted in an oil spill, the owners — assuming they could be identified and found — would simply walk away, leaving the mess and subsequently the cleanup for someone else to do.
Lime, a global leader in shared electric micromobility, is significantly expanding its fleet this spring with the launch of two new vehicles – the LimeBike and LimeGlider.
After a successful series of pilot programs in 2024, Lime announced plans to roll out more than 10,000 of these new electric vehicles across multiple cities in Europe and North America in the coming months.
The introduction of the LimeBike and LimeGlider mark a key step forward for Lime as the company aims to attract a wider range of riders to shared micromobility. Both vehicles feature significant design innovations informed by extensive rider feedback, city partner consultations, and performance data gathered from Lime’s extensive operational experience.
The LimeBike marks the return of the Lime brand’s original name in a refreshed and modern form. Designed specifically to enhance rider accessibility and comfort, the LimeBike features an approachable step-through frame making it easier to mount and dismount.
Additionally, it has a unique ergonomic clamp design allowing riders to easily adjust seat height. This feature was developed directly from rider feedback, aiming to make the bike more inclusive for riders of different heights and abilities.
Smaller 20-inch wheels give the LimeBike improved handling and a compact feel, making it more maneuverable in dense urban settings.
Unlike European markets, the LimeBike is offered in US markets will also include a hand throttle, allowing riders the flexibility to choose between traditional pedal-assisted cycling and throttle-only operation. This flexibility caters to varying rider preferences and physical abilities, broadening the appeal of the bike in a market where most e-bike riders tend to prefer throttle operation.
The LimeGlider, meanwhile, introduces a completely new vehicle type to Lime’s fleet – a seated, pedal-less electric vehicle designed for effortless riding. Combining the comfort of a seated ride with the simplicity of a scooter, the LimeGlider aims to appeal especially to riders who prefer a less physically demanding ride experience or who may have limitations making traditional scooters challenging.
Designed with rider comfort as a priority, the LimeGlider includes footrests instead of pedals, a large padded moped-style seat positioned lower to the ground to lower the center of gravity, and intuitive ergonomic hand grips to reduce rider fatigue. The green and black colorway sets it apart somewhat from Lime’s usual green and white fleet, further underscoring its new role as a bridge between scooters and bicycles in terms of ride experience.
Both the LimeBike and LimeGlider incorporate several shared improvements aimed at boosting convenience and safety. Wider front baskets offer increased utility for everyday errands and ergonomic phone holders provide secure and accessible navigation for riders. Each vehicle is equipped with 2.5-inch tires optimized for reliable traction in varying conditions.
From the tech side, the LimeBike and LimeGlider represent Lime’s most advanced offerings yet. Lime says that improved location accuracy within the vehicles’ onboard systems ensures quicker identification and responsiveness in recognizing designated parking zones, restricted access areas, and low-speed zones, crucial for compliance with city regulations and enhancing rider safety.
Sustainability has also been central to the design philosophy behind Lime’s latest vehicles. Utilizing modular construction methods, the LimeBike and LimeGlider are among the most repairable vehicles Lime has produced to date. Modular components mean quicker, easier repairs, minimizing downtime and extending vehicle lifespan. Both vehicles share Lime’s proprietary swappable battery technology, common across the company’s Gen4 fleet, streamlining operations and reducing environmental impacts by prolonging battery life and optimizing energy usage.
The pilot tests conducted in 2024 underscored the strong market potential for both vehicles. Lime reported notably positive rider responses, with high rates of repeat usage and longer ride durations, particularly with the LimeGlider. For instance, during the pilot in Seattle and Zurich, riders frequently embarked on journeys exceeding 5 kilometers and averaging over 15 minutes per trip, surpassing the usage patterns of Lime’s existing Gen4 electric bikes.
Building upon these successful pilots, Lime’s spring launch targets several strategically selected cities. The LimeBike is set to roll out in Turin, Italy; Aarhus, Denmark; Nice, France; and Nyon, Switzerland, expanding into areas with established cycling cultures and infrastructure. The LimeGlider debuts in major U.S. cities including Denver, Austin, and San Francisco, markets that Lime identifies as primed for growth in seated, scooter-like micromobility solutions. Both vehicles will also see wider availability in cities like Atlanta, Seattle, and Zurich, where initial pilots indicated strong rider enthusiasm.
Lime’s President Joe Kraus expressed optimism about the new vehicles, highlighting their appeal during early trials: “During our initial pilots last year, it was clear that the LimeBike and LimeGlider earned the love of our riders, with people returning to them frequently for local travel,” Kraus explained. “We’re so excited to take our next step with these vehicles and bring them to more cities this spring.”
The introduction of these vehicles aligns closely with urban policy goals aimed at reducing car dependency and enhancing accessibility for a diverse range of city residents. Lime specifically designed the LimeBike and LimeGlider to meet the needs of traditionally underrepresented micromobility users, such as older riders and women. Enhanced vehicle stability, ease of use, and adjustable features aim to reduce common barriers to micromobility adoption among these groups.
Since its inception in 2017, Lime riders have collectively completed over 750 million rides, covering more than 900 million miles (over 1.5 billion kilometers). This significant uptake of micromobility solutions has translated into meaningful environmental benefits, replacing an estimated 180 million car trips, thereby preventing over 77 million kilograms of CO2 emissions and saving more than 33 million liters of gasoline.
With the launch of the LimeBike and LimeGlider, Lime is poised to significantly build upon these achievements, further shifting urban transportation patterns toward sustainable, inclusive, and efficient micromobility.
Electrek’s Take
I think that Lime’s new LimeBike and LimeGlider are smart additions that feel well-positioned for today’s micromobility market. It’s also great to see Lime include a throttle on the LimeBike for the North American market, where so many riders prefer to ride without pedaling. For casual users and tourists especially, a throttle can make all the difference between choosing to hop on a shared e-bike or not.
Lime clearly listened to rider feedback, and these new models could help pull even more people into using micromobility instead of cars. Let’s just hope they can keep it up.
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Tesla (TSLA) will release its Q1 2025 financial results today, Tuesday, April. 22, after the markets close. As usual, a conference call and Q&A with Tesla’s management are scheduled after the results.
Here, we’ll look at what the street and retail investors expect for the quarterly results.
Tesla Q1 2025 deliveries and energy deployment
CEO Elon Musk and his loyal shareholders often claim that Tesla is now an AI/Robotics company, but the truth is that the company’s automotive business still drives the vast majority of its financial performance.
Tesla’s revenue remains tied mainly to the number of vehicles it delivers.
Earlier this month, Tesla disclosed its Q1 2025 vehicle production and deliveries:
| Production | Deliveries | Subject to operating lease accounting | |
| Model 3/Y | 345,454 | 323,800 | 4% |
| Other Models | 17,161 | 12,881 | 7% |
| Total | 362,615 | 336,681 | 4% |
It was significantly below expectations and approximately 50,000 units short of what Tesla delivered in Q1 2024.
Analysts have been adjusting their revenue and earnings expectations accordingly since the disclosure a few weeks ago.
Now, Tesla’s energy storage business is also starting to make a meaningful contribution to its financial performance. The company disclosed having deployed 10.4 GWh of energy storage products during Q1 2025.
Tesla no longer discloses solar deployment information.
Tesla Q1 2025 revenue
For revenue, analysts generally have a pretty good idea of what to expect, thanks to the delivery numbers and now the energy storage deployment data.
However, many were taken by surprise by how low Tesla’s deliveries were this quarter and the automaker offered a lot of discounts, which will affect the average sale price that analysts are now trying to figure out.
The Wall Street consensus for this quarter is $21.345 billion, and Estimize, the financial estimate crowdsourcing website, predicts a slightly lower revenue of $21.254 billion.
Here are the predictions for Tesla’s revenue over the past two years, with Estimize predictions in blue, Wall Street consensus in gray, and actual results are in green:
This would be about a $1 billion lower than the same period last year – meaning that analysts don’t expect Tesla’s increased energy storage deployment to compensate for the lower vehicle deliveries.
Tesla Q1 2025 earnings
Tesla claims to consistently strive for marginal profitability every quarter, as it invests the majority of its funds in growth, but its growth has disappeared from its automotive business over the last year, and its gross margin is going in the same direction.
Analysts are trying to estimate Tesla’s gross margin with the lower deliveries to figure out its actual earnings per share.
For Q1 2025, the Wall Street consensus is a gain of $0.41 per share and Estimize’s crowdsourced prediction is a little lower at $0.40.
Here are the earnings per share over the last two years, where Estimize predictions are in blue, Wall Street consensus is in gray, and actual results are in green:
If the estimates are accurate, Tesla’s earnings per share would be down from $0.45 during the same period last year.
There are several things that Tesla could do here that could surprise investors with a significant earnings beat. Tesla could have recognized revenue from the launch of FSD in China, even though the launch was brief and 95% of the value of the FSD package is unsupervised self-driving, which Tesla has yet to deliver.
Tesla could have also sold more emission credits. As of the end of last quarter, Tesla was still sitting on a good amount, and while it claims to sell them when the price makes the most sense, it is quite an opaque market and Tesla could at any time decide to sell them just to save itself from a bad quarter.
Other expectations for the TSLA shareholder’s letter, analyst call, and special ‘company update’
As we reported yesterday, this is likely going to be a messy earnings report. Musk has been on a propaganda spree lately after Tesla suffered immense brand damage and declining stock price due to his involvement in politics.
Now, he has called for a “live company update” at the same time as the release of Tesla’s financial results, which appears to be a desperate move at damage control amid a tough quarter for the company.
I expect that he will try to paint a rosy picture of Tesla’s self-driving and robot efforts to come save the company amid declining EV sales.
As I previously reported, I wouldn’t be surprised if he also pushes for Tesla to invest in his xAI startup or proposes a merger between the companies.
Tesla will also take questions from retail shareholders based on the most popular ones on Say. Here are the top 5 questions and my thoughts on them:
- Is Tesla still on track for releasing “more affordable models” this year? Or will you be focusing on simplified versions to enhance affordability, similar to the RWD Cybertruck?
- We have had the answer to that question for about a year now, but Tesla shareholders don’t believe it because Elon claimed that Reuters’ original report that Tesla canceled its more affordable EV was “wrong” when it fact it wasn’t. As we recently reported, Musk killed the “$25,000 Tesla” in favor of the Robotaxi and building new stripped-down versions of Model Y and Model 3.
- When will FSD unsupervised be available for personal use on personally-owned cars?
- Lol – we are just going to get Elon’s “best guess”, which has been wrong every time for the last decade.
- How is Tesla positioning itself to flexibly adapt to global economic risks in the form of tariffs, political biases, etc.?
- Musk is going to say “you go woke, you go broke” and that his pathetic quest to “kill the woke mind virus” will ultimately be good for Tesla because the world will be rid of this destructive virus. As for the global economic risks, I wouldn’t be surprised if Tesla announces more layoffs soon.
- Robotaxi still on track for this year?
- It could very well be. We have already reported in detail about how Tesla’s “robotaxi” launch in Austin, planned for June, is actually a “moving of the goal” and it has very little to do with Tesla’s long-stated promise of delivering unsupervised self-driving in a consumer vehicle, as asked in the second question.
- Did Tesla experience any meaningful changes in order inflow rate in Q1 relating to all of the rumors of “brand damage”?
- If they say no here, don’t believe them. Tesla is down 50,000 units in Q1, and yes, the Model Y changeover has something to do with it, but you can clearly see now, based on new Model Y delivery timelines, that Tesla has no order backlog for the vehicle. It will likely launch incentives to sell the brand-new vehicle that was supposed to save Tesla’s auto business in the coming weeks.
Tune in with Electrek after market close today to get all the latest news from Tesla’s earnings, conference call, and now also an apparent “company update.”
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Investors are entering 2025’s first-quarter earnings season with a huge cloud of uncertainty hanging over them — thanks primarily to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
The scale of duties announced in April, along with the volatility injected by subsequent updates and reversals in policy, have so far exceeded even the most bearish forecasts.
Negotiators from the European Union and the U.K. are in talks with U.S. officials to try to alleviate their respective 25% and 10% blanket tariffs, while also grappling with broader tariffs on steel, aluminum and autos. Meanwhile, the rest of the world watches on to see whether red-hot tensions between Washington and Beijing will cool, averting a trade war between the two biggest economies that would have far-ranging repercussions.
Two major earnings reports have already landed in Europe, providing an indication of the tone to come.
Luxury giant LVMH said its categories such as beauty, wines and spirits were vulnerable to a pullback in spending by “aspirational clientele.” Dutch semiconductor firm ASML, which manufacturers chipmaking machines critical to global tech, said tarifs were “creating a new uncertainty” around demand. But neither was able to quantify the scale of the impact.
Here are five other major European firms yet to report earnings that could face big hits from the tariff turmoil.
Maersk
Danish shipping giant Maersk, a bellwether for global trade, is poised to report first-quarter earnings on May 8. Shares of the company have been highly volatile in recent weeks, moving sharply as investors react to the Trump administration’s back-and-forth tariff announcements.
An escalating trade war between the U.S. and China, the world’s two largest economies, has been a major source of concern for the maritime and transport sector.
Analysts expect Maersk’s first-quarter earnings before interest, depreciation, taxes and amortization (EBITDA) to come in at $2.3 billion, according to an LSEG-compiled consensus, down from $3.6 billion in the final three months of 2024.
Maersk earlier this month described the U.S. tariffs as “significant” and — in their current form — clearly not good news for the global economy, stability and trade.
“It is still too early to say with any confidence how this will ultimately unfold. We need to see how countries will respond to these plans — and to what extent they choose to negotiate, impose counter-tariffs, adjust import duties, or pursue a combination of these measures,” the company said in a statement on April 3.
Shell
Shell is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings on May 2. It comes after the British oil giant in March announced plans to boost shareholder returns, cut costs and double down on its liquefied natural gas (LNG) push.
In a later trading update, Shell trimmed its first-quarter LNG production outlook, citing unplanned maintenance, including in Australia.
A Shell logo in Austin, Texas.
Brandon Bell | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Oil and gas stocks have been caught up in tariff-fueled market turmoil in recent weeks, with energy majors exposed to growing recession fears, subdued oil demand and falling crude prices.
Analysts at wealth manager Hargreaves Lansdown said earlier this month that Shell’s “sharpened focus on efficiency and quality leaves it well-placed to grow free cash flow and shareholder distributions.”
But it can’t control the oil price, Hargreaves Lansdown noted, “so, investors have to be prepared for the relatively high level of volatility that accompanies the entire sector.”
Shell is expected to report first-quarter adjusted earnings of $5.14 billion, according to an LSEG-compiled consensus, down from $7.73 billion in the same period a year ago. The energy major reported adjusted earnings $3.66 billion in the final three months of 2024.
Equity analysts have singled out Shell as the best capital allocator among its European peers, pointing toward the firm’s steadfast commitment to cost discipline under CEO Wael Sawan.
Volkswagen
Germany’s Volkswagen is one of many automotive firms expected to take a hit from tariffs — particularly those on Canada and Mexico — though results out April 30 should give a clearer indicaion of how much it expects to be able to shoulder through operations in Chattanooga, Tennessee.
The U.S. in April implemented a 25% charge on all foreign cars imported into the country, which appears to have already caused some panic-buying.
Volkswagen’s Chief Financial Officer Arno Antlitz told CNBC last month the company was in favor of open markets but already felt “like an American company” due to its thousands of U.S. employees.
However, analysts warn tariffs are especially negative for German carmakers which export thousands of vehicles a year to the U.S., while many cars produced in the country still require European-made parts.
Volkswagen is expected to produce higher year-on-year revenue in the first quarter, up to 77.6 billion euros ($88.2 billion) from 75.5 billion euros, an LSEG-compiled consensus shows. Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) are seen dipping to 4.03 billion euros from 4.6 billion euros.
Lufthansa
As geopolitical tensions mount, some have questioned whether travel demand will suffer or trends will change — and the results of German airline group Lufthansa, due April 29, could hold some clues.
Lufthansa CEO Carsten Spohr told CNBC in early March that he expected global demand to drive “significantly” higher profit in 2025 and had not seen any dent in transatlantic bookings. But a lot has changed since then, with the scale of Trump’s tariffs and rhetoric fueling public anger and even boycotts of U.S. products.
A Lufthansa Airlines plane taxiing for takeoff as an United Airlines plane lands at San Francisco International Airport (SFO) in San Francisco, California, United States on February 7, 2025.
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images
Figures for March published by the International Trade Administration showed a 17.2% year-on-year fall in visitor arrivals from Western Europe to the U.S., against a 3.4% dip from Asia and a 17.7% increase from the Middle East.
Lufthansa Group, which includes the German flag carrier along with SWISS, Austrian Airlines, Brussels Airlines and Italy’s ITA Airways, has already been grappling with challenges including strikes, global price pressures and Boeing aircraft delivery delays.
According to an LSEG-compiled consensus, analysts expect the group to report revenue of around 8.07 billion euros in the first quarter, up from 7.4 billion euros the previous year, and a roughly $630 million loss in EBIT, trimmed from a $871 million loss year-on-year and down from $482 million profit the prior quarter.
Novo Nordisk
Drugmakers have little idea how their access to the critical U.S. market will be impacted in the coming months.
The Trump administration said last week that it had opened an investigation into how importing certain pharmaceuticals affects national security, widely seen as a prelude to tariffs on drugs — also suggested to be happening in the coming months by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
There remains no clarity over what size the tariffs will be, and when or even if they will come into effect.
For Denmark’s Novo Nordisk, Europe’s second-largest listed company, that leaves exposed the U.S. sales of its hugely popular obesity and diabetes treatments Ozempic and Wegovy. Traders will be hoping its May 7 results give an indication of how it is preparing for that, and how much can be offset by its “very significant” manufacturing set-up in the U.S.
Emily Field, head of European pharmaceuticals research at Barclays, told CNBC earlier this month that tariffs were the “No. 1 question on investors’ minds.”
— CNBC’s Karen Gilchrist and Annika Kim Constantino contributed reporting.
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