Russia’s oil trade is rising as record volumes of Russian crude are carried on ‘dark fleet’ vessels
A Russian-chartered oil tanker in the sea off Morocco in an area identified by maritime technology company Windward as a hub for smuggling oil.
Europa Press | Getty Images
Recent data shows the discount on Russian oil narrowing and exports increasing despite the G-7 price cap on Russian petroleum exports and U.S. sanctions.
According to Clearview Energy Partners, Russian crude prices over the last four weeks have averaged about six cents below the Brent crude price. That is far off the trading discount when the cap was first put in place. When the cap was fully phased in, in February 2023, Russian crude was selling at a 30% discount. A year ago, the discount was about 16%.
Ukraine allies, including the U.S., have banned the import of Russian crude, while a price cap imposed on Russian oil by the G7 countries, the European Union and Australia bans the use of Western maritime services such as insurance, flagging and transportation when tankers carry Russian oil priced at or above $60 a barrel to nations where a ban is not enforced.
In a recent report to clients, Clearview Energy Partners characterized the G-7 price cap on Russian petroleum exports to third countries as “increasingly loose.”
Kevin Book, managing director of research at Clearview Energy Partners, told CNBC that despite the G-7’s June and September calls for improving the price cap, and recent guidance urging parties to Russian petroleum transactions to better scrutinize cargoes, “a U.S. pinch on Russian petroleum seems unlikely until after the election.”
“A cap enforcement crackdown runs the risk of driving up crude prices,” he said. “Plus, using ‘secondary’ sanctions to enforce the cap could push reputable insurers out of the Russian crude game entirely, leaving the market to potentially insolvent stand-ins.”
Book explained that part of the narrowing of the discount is a result of Russian oil finding additional buyers, including India and China.
Record volumes of sanctioned Russian oil were carried by the “dark fleet” and known sanctioned tankers without known insurance over September, according to a recent report from Lloyd’s List.
The Lloyd’s List Intelligence unit analysis of data from energy cargo tracking firm Vortexa revealed that 69% of all crude shipped in September was carried on dark fleet tankers and 18% was carried on tankers owned by Russian government-controlled Sovcomflot. It is the most volume moved since tracking of the monthly dark fleet data began in mid-2022 (measured by deadweight capacity of vessels.) In May, 54% was recorded, the previous high.
Chinese and Indian oil traders, refiners, and port authorities were the drivers of this growth.
Lloyd’s List determines if a tanker is part of the dark fleet based on factors including if the ship is 15 years or older, is anonymously owned or has a corporate structure designed to conceal ownership, is handling sanctioned oil trade, and is using deceptive shipping practices. Its analysis showed a flurry of flag-hopping, where a vessel changes its country registration, as well as ownership and management changes amongst the vessels in the dark fleet to avoid detection.
The dark fleet data does not include Russia’s Sovcomflot or Iran’s National Iranian Tanker Co.
Its data revealed that 5% of all Russian oil in September was transported by 11 tankers, with nine of those vessels sanctioned by the UK or EU between July and September and owned by the Russian government-controlled tanker company Sovcomflot. The remaining vessels were sanctioned by the U.S. Office of Foreign Assets Control for breaching sanctions on Syrian and Iranian oil. Those vessels are the Eternal Peace and Nebulax.
Some of the Sovcomflot tankers that Lloyd’s List identified in its report were sanctioned by the UK or EU between July and September. Some tankers changed vessel names, reflagged the vessel’s origin to Barbados, or redomiciled registered ownership to Seychelles and changed their ship management to a newly incorporated UAE-based ship manager, Avebury Shipmanagement.
Greece-owned tankers have shipped 23% of oil from Russia in September, consistently over the last three months, according to Lloyd’s List. The majority of the UK- and EU-sanctioned tankers have already discharged their oil in China.
Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, said despite the price cap, some ship owners have decided that it was extremely profitable to have their vessels become part of the dark fleet and risk United States and EU sanctions.
“After all, Russian oil continues to be purchased by Chinese and Indian refiners with little repercussions from the U.S. or EU,” said Lipow.
A Treasury spokesperson told CNBC, “Two years since the price cap was implemented, it is unsurprising that Putin is still sinking money into building and maintaining a shadow fleet to escape the Coalition’s sanctions: that evasion costs the Kremlin, and diverts money that would otherwise be going to the battlefield. The Price Cap Coalition continues to engage with industry to ensure compliance with the price cap and to increase Putin’s costs of going outside it.”
The number of uninsured vessels carrying sanctioned oil also increased, according to Lloyd’s List, with some 201 of the 310 tankers tracked not having insurance with the 12 clubs that form the International Group of P&I Clubs. That represented 68% of the vessels when measured by deadweight, and the lowest number of tankers tracked with IG club insurance, surpassing 67% uninsured recorded in July and August.
Lipow said the oil market is pricing in a greater probability of a war between Iran and Israel that could impact supply.
“The biggest risk to the oil market is the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, and while unlikely, if it were to happen, oil prices would rise $30 per barrel,” he said. Despite the hostilities, oil prices remain under pressure, he said, as increased production from the U.S., Canada and Guyana adds to the supply picture while OPEC+ delays the restoration of its production cuts.
The increased use of dark fleet vessels comes with greater maritime safety and environmental risks.
Lloyd’s List warned in a recent note that shipping safety has become a “casualty of economic sanctions” with attempts to enhance sanctions policy leading to greater ranks of tankers determined to evade it.
Insurance giant Allianz said in May that dark fleet tankers had been linked to more than 50 accidents.
Lipow told CNBC if these vessels were to be involved in an accident that resulted in an oil spill, the owners — assuming they could be identified and found — would simply walk away, leaving the mess and subsequently the cleanup for someone else to do.
Tesla (TSLA) board members have received a wake-up call letter from eight state treasurers, asking them to fulfill their duties and supervise the company’s CEO, Elon Musk.
Will they ignore this warning as well?
There have been concerns about Tesla’s board sleeping at the wheel for a while now.
Their job is to oversee Tesla’s management for the benefit of shareholders, but Tesla’s stock is down almost 40% this year while the CEO is splitting his time between 6 different companies and projects while alienating most of Tesla’s consumer base.
Yet, the board hasn’t said a word about it.
The situation lends weight to the argument that the board is entirely under Musk’s control, which is the main point of contention in Tesla’s $55 billion CEO compensation case.
Now, eight state treasurers have joined forces to raise their concerns with the board. They wrote in a letter addressed to Robyn Denholm, chair of Tesla’s board:
We are increasingly concerned that Tesla’s recent performance signals deeper governance and leadership challenges that, if left unaddressed, could have serious consequences for the company and its stakeholders. In the first quarter of 2025 alone, Tesla’s stock declined by 36%. The company missed delivery targets, recalled a substantial number of vehicles, and experienced a surge in trade-ins for competing brands. Meanwhile, CEO Elon Musk continues to divide his attention across multiple companies and a high-profile advisory role within the federal government. These external commitments raise serious questions about whether Tesla’s leadership is fully engaged in addressing the company’s core challenges.
In the letter, the treasurers remind Tesla’s board of its duty “to provide strong oversight, uphold fiduciary standards, and ensure that the company’s leadership is aligned with the long-term best interests of the company.”
They are directly asking the board three questions:
- How is the Board ensuring that Mr. Musk and Tesla’s leadership team are devoting adequate time and focus to resolving recent performance issues and guiding the company’s future direction?
- In light of the company’s underperformance, how is the Board evaluating whether executive compensation remains aligned with shareholder value and corporate accountability?
- How does the Board plan to communicate its strategy for navigating this period of uncertainty and restoring investor and public confidence in Tesla’s leadership?
Tesla is going to release its Q1 2025 financial results today, hold its earnings conference call, and have a “live company update.’ Maybe some of these questions will be answered.
Here’s the letter in full:
2025-04-17 Letter to Tesla Board Chair
April 17, 2025
Robyn Denholm
Chair of the Board
Tesla, Inc.
1 Tesla Road
Austin, TX 78725
Dear Chair Denholm,
We are entrusted with promoting the long-term economic health and financial stability of our states and the people we serve. Tesla, Inc. is not just one of the world’s most valuable companies—it is a major player in the clean energy economy and a leading force in emerging technologies such as robotics and autonomous driving. The company’s success or setbacks have significant implications for workers, regional industries, and innovation ecosystems in our states.
We are increasingly concerned that Tesla’s recent performance signals deeper governance and leadership challenges that, if left unaddressed, could have serious consequences for the company and its stakeholders. In the first quarter of 2025 alone, Tesla’s stock declined by 36%. The company missed delivery targets, recalled a substantial number of vehicles, and experienced a surge in trade-ins for competing brands. Meanwhile, CEO Elon Musk continues to divide his attention across multiple companies and a high-profile advisory role within the federal government. These external commitments raise serious questions about whether Tesla’s leadership is fully engaged in addressing the company’s core challenges.
We regularly interact with stakeholders across our states, including institutional investors, industry leaders, workers, and small businesses. We are hearing increasing concern about Tesla’s direction, not only from financial professionals but from those who have looked to Tesla as a leader in clean energy innovation and American industrial renewal. If Tesla falters, the effects won’t be confined to shareholders—they will ripple through regional economies, workforce pipelines, and public confidence in the energy transition.
At a moment when American industrial leadership is facing stiff global competition, it is essential that companies like Tesla are governed with focus, discipline, and clarity of mission. The Board’s role is especially critical now—to provide strong oversight, uphold fiduciary standards, and ensure that the company’s leadership is aligned with the long-term best interests of the company. Public officials like us do not take the step of raising these concerns lightly except when the obvious risks demand it.
We believe the Tesla Board has a responsibility to act decisively to ensure the company returns to a stable and focused trajectory.
We respectfully request the Board provide clarity on the following:
- How is the Board ensuring that Mr. Musk and Tesla’s leadership team are devoting adequate time and focus to resolving recent performance issues and guiding the company’s future direction?
- In light of the company’s underperformance, how is the Board evaluating whether executive compensation remains aligned with shareholder value and corporate accountability?
- How does the Board plan to communicate its strategy for navigating this period of uncertainty and restoring investor and public confidence in Tesla’s leadership?
Finally, we strongly believe Tesla’s Board would benefit from engaging with public sector stakeholders who share an interest in the company’s long-term value and societal impact. We welcome the opportunity to speak further about these concerns and discuss how the Board can take swift and transparent action to restore investor confidence and public trust in Tesla’s leadership and the company’s future.
We welcome a response and the opportunity for continued dialogue.
Signed,
Mike Pellicciotti, Washington State Treasurer
Deborah B. Goldberg, Massachusetts State Treasurer and Receiver-General
Michael W. Frerichs, Illinois State Treasurer
Erick Russell, Connecticut Treasurer
Laura M. Montoya, New Mexico State Treasurer
David L. Young, Colorado State Treasurer
Mike Pieciak, Vermont State Treasurer
Malia M. Cohen, California State Controller
Electrek’s Take
Tesla is a $700 billion publicly traded company that is run like a family business by Musk, who owns just 13% of the float.
The board, which was so handsomely rewarded that it had to return almost $1 billion worth of compensation as part of a shareholder lawsuit, is letting Musk do whatever he wants without any objection.
It’s clear that they have a quid pro quo with Musk, whereby they receive compensation at a rate several times higher than any other similarly sized company in exchange for allowing Musk to run Tesla as if it were his private company.
While I am glad they sent this letter, I doubt that a group of state treasurers will convince Tesla’s board to do anything.
At this point, they are either completely fine with Musk destroying Tesla or they believe his claims about self-driving technology.
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Chevron is not seeing signs that the U.S. is close to a recession even as President Donald Trump’s tariffs weigh on expectations for oil demand, CEO Mike Wirth said Tuesday.
“There’s no signs that we see at this point that we are in or close to a recession,” Wirth told CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” “There are signs that growth may be slowing and we have to always be prepared for that.”
The International Monetary Fund on Monday cut its growth outlook for the U.S. this year to 1.8%, down from 2.7% previously.
The oil market is expecting reduced demand as a consequence of Trump’s tariffs and the decision by OPEC+ increase production faster than expected, Wirth said. Chevron isn’t changing its capital spending plans in response to drop in prices, the CEO said.
U.S. crude oil prices have fallen about 11% since Trump announced his tariffs on April 2. West Texas Intermediate was last up about 72 cents at $63.80 per barrel. OPEC and the International Energy Agency have cut their demand outlooks for this year.
Wirth said U.S. onshore oil production in patches like the Permian Basin is likely to pull back if prices hit $60 per barrel. Offshore production likely won’t be affected, he said.
“That’s an area where if we were to be at a $60 price or even lower you’re likely to see activity pull back in this sector and you’ll see the production response over a few months,” Wirth said. “That’s what we should watch, not so much the deep water activity.”
Chevron is not expecting a major direct impact on its business from Trump’s tariffs as energy has largely been exempt from the levies, Wirth said.
“The effects that we feel are likely to be more the macroeconomic effects as they flow through the economy,” Wirth said. “The bigger issues would be what would it mean for growth, and global trade and how does that evolve.”
Executives at oil and gas companies were scathing in their criticism of Trump’s tariffs in an anonymous March survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, warning that steel tariffs were raising their costs and low prices could impact their activity.
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Little is known about super-secretive EV startup Slate, but the fledgling brand is rumored to be backed by Jeff Bezos and determined to shake up the existing electric order with an affordable lineup of compact SUVs and pickups with that golden $25,000 price tag.
Now, at least, we know what it’s gonna look like. The battle of the billionaires is on!
Redditor jonjopop over at the spotted subreddit spotted what looks like an early prototype of an unbranded SUV with bizarre “CryShare” wrap. CryShare, as a concept, seems to combine the functionality of a ride sharing app like Uber or Lyft with the familiar (to parent, anyway) idea that small babies will often sleep better in a moving car than in their own cribs … but that’s not what’s important here.
Instead, focus on the vehicle itself – parked on Abbot Kinney Boulevard in Los Angeles without explanation or fanfare, this is our best look yet at the kind of vehicle(s) Slate is likely to reveal in the coming days.
Stumbled upon the Bezosmobile [Slate Automotive…idk?] being revealed with an absolutely bizarre marketing campaign
byu/jonjopop inspotted
Other local automotive journalists caught wind of the public unveiling, too – and our friends at The Autopian (Hi, Matt!) sent their own David Tracy out on the streets of LA to check it out. Tracy took the following video and posted it to Instagram.
The Slate breaking cover and causing buzz just ahead of what’s sure to be a painful Q1 earnings call for Tesla is a masterstroke of marketing – especially as doubts surrounding the viability of a “less expensive” Tesla Model Y or Model 3 continue to mount amid the uncertainty of Trump’s tariffs and declining sales of the brand’s more profitable models both at home and abroad.
As with so much involving Slate, however, there is nothing here written in stone – or even cast in cheese. Nothing has been announced, nothing is promised, and for all we know this might have more to do with the affordable Rivian brand launch, a new BYD, or be a viral marketing bit from some local Art Center design student in (relatively) nearby Pasadena. In fact, about the only thing I think we can say about Bezos (?) new Slate project with confidence today is this: Elon could probably use that drink.
SOURCES | IMAGES: Reddit, The Autopian.
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