College Football Power Rankings: How did the top 25 look in Week 7?
Week 7 has wrapped up as this week’s matchups gave us some exciting endings along with Arizona State’s upset of No. 16 Utah on Friday. Four of the 17 games with top-25 teams went into overtime as the unranked looked to make it another chaotic weekend.
After a lopsided loss to No. 1 Texas, Oklahoma drops out of this week’s top 25 as the Sooners were held out of the end zone in this year’s Red River Rivalry matchup. Longhorns quarterback Quinn Ewers made his return after being out for 2½ games as Texas secured its second Red River Rivalry victory in six years.
It was an exciting Saturday evening in Eugene, Oregon, as No. 3 Oregon took down No. 2 Ohio State in a matchup you didn’t want to miss. Dillon Gabriel and the Ducks’ offense showed they’re contenders for the Big Ten title even in their first year in the league.
After a 6-0 start, Army jumps four spots in our top-25 power ratings and is joined in the rankings by Navy, which remains undefeated as well, at the No. 24 spot. This is the first time since 1960 that both Army and Navy have been in the AP poll.
Here’s the latest top 25 from our college football experts, who provide their insight on each team’s Week 7 performance.
Previous ranking: 3
The Longhorns are 6-0 for the first time since 2009, and they’ve trailed for only 3½ minutes this year (after Oklahoma’s first-quarter field goal on Saturday). They’ve lost multiple running backs, including leading returning rusher from last year CJ Baxter, to season-ending injuries. And of course, starting quarterback Quinn Ewers missed 2½ games with an oblique injury only to see backup Arch Manning star in his place, yet there has been no hint of a quarterback controversy. ESPN’s FPI gives Texas a 61% chance of winning the SEC and a 32.8% chance to win the national championship, by far the best odds in the country.
The Longhorns have survived injuries, adversity, a road trip to Michigan and the annual test in Dallas against Oklahoma. At this point, their biggest obstacle is handling the expectations and the pressure, beginning with Saturday’s game against No. 5 Georgia, one of the most anticipated games of the season before a very manageable stretch at Vanderbilt, home against Florida, at Arkansas and home against Kentucky. If the Longhorns can walk the tightrope to get there, the Nov. 30 game at Texas A&M will be one of the most heated in the history of the rivalry, returning after 13 seasons with what would appear right now to be a lot on the line for both teams. — Dave Wilson
Previous ranking: 2
The Ducks took a major step toward advancing to the playoff and, potentially, the Big Ten championship in their first year in the league. Quarterback Dillon Gabriel and the Oregon offense were spectacular in the 32-31 victory over second-ranked Ohio State. Wideouts Evan Stewart and Tez Johnson showed they can make plays downfield against anyone.
Jordan James ran tough between the tackles to keep the Oregon running game rolling. And Gabriel underscored why he should be on the short list of Heisman Trophy contenders. The Ducks still have to travel to Michigan on Nov. 2. But otherwise, Oregon should be heavy favorites to win its other five remaining games. With a talented offense finding its groove, the Ducks are looking like legitimate national title contenders. — Jake Trotter
Previous ranking: 1
The controversial offensive pass interference penalty on receiver Jeremiah Smith and quarterback Will Howard‘s inexplicable decision to slide on the final play consumed the oxygen in Ohio State’s postgame news conference.
Yet the biggest reason the Buckeyes ultimately lost 32-31 at Oregon? Their defense got torched. The Ducks could’ve easily scored 20 more points.
Oregon missed a 43-yard field goal, came up with only three points off two drives that reached the 2-yard line, missed a pair of point-after tries and then had a spitting penalty that caused it to settle for a field goal. The Buckeyes didn’t force a turnover, didn’t record a sack and couldn’t slow Oregon’s running game. All-America cornerback Denzel Burke had a particularly rough night in man coverage. Ohio State’s season is far from over. But the Buckeyes will have to be much better defensively moving forward after failing their first big test. — Trotter
Previous ranking: 6
The Canes were off in Week 7, and that was probably a good thing. After back-to-back nail-biters that came down to the final play, Miami had a chance to regroup, recoup and refocus. A road trip to Louisville in Week 8 is likely the biggest obstacle still standing between the Canes and the ACC title game — and possibly an undefeated regular season — so the extra prep time helps.
More than anything, though, there’s a feeling that Cam Ward has turned this into a team of destiny. After come-from-behind wins against Virginia Tech and Cal, the latter in utterly improbable fashion, it’s hard to argue with the premise. — David Hale
Previous ranking: 4
It hasn’t been pretty or particularly flashy, but Penn State just keeps winning. The Nittany Lions are one of only three undefeated teams in the Big Ten after coming back from a 20-6 halftime deficit to USC and pulling off an overtime win. Despite a slow start, Penn State’s offense woke up from its slumber in the second half and utilized its tight end, Tyler Warren, to reignite quarterback Drew Allar.
There’s no doubt Allar is skilled — he finished with 391 yards on Saturday — but Penn State’s hopes in the second half of the season and beyond are banking on him being not just productive but consistent. The passing game is by far the part of PSU’s offense that needs the most work — it’s currently ranked 58th in the country in passing production. Yet after outlasting USC, the Nittany Lions should be favored in every game in the rest of their schedule but one: Ohio State at home on Nov. 2. — Paolo Uggetti
Previous ranking: 5
The good news for Georgia is that quarterback Carson Beck has found his groove. He passed for 459 yards and three touchdowns Saturday in a 41-31 win at home over Mississippi State, but Georgia also gave up 306 passing yards and three touchdowns to true freshman quarterback Michael Van Buren Jr., who was making just his second collegiate start. Moreover, Georgia (5-1, 3-1 SEC) could never completely put away Mississippi State, which has now lost five straight games. Beck did throw two interceptions, but in his past 10 quarters, he has thrown for 1,038 yards and eight touchdowns.
Georgia has bounced back (at least in the win column) from an abysmal first half against Alabama on Sept. 28, but the most important stretch of the season awaits, starting with a trip to No. 1 Texas this Saturday. After a bye week, Georgia then faces Florida on Nov. 2 in Jacksonville, travels to Ole Miss the following week and returns home to face Tennessee on Nov. 16. Getting through that gauntlet unscathed will be difficult unless the Dawgs clean it up across the board and play more consistently. — Chris Low
Previous ranking: 7
It has been a shaky past two weeks for Alabama and dangerously close to being disastrous. Coming off a 40-35 loss to Vanderbilt, Alabama held off determined South Carolina in the final seconds Saturday at home to squeak out a 27-25 victory. The Crimson Tide again had trouble getting off the field on defense, as the Gamecocks were 7-of-15 on third down and 1-of-2 on fourth down. Alabama (5-1, 2-1 SEC) built an early 14-0 lead, but the Gamecocks scored 19 unanswered points to take a 19-14 lead going into the fourth quarter.
Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe made some big plays late to give the lead back to Alabama but also threw two interceptions. South Carolina had a chance in the final seconds to win it after recovering an onside kick, but Alabama’s Domani Jackson intercepted LaNorris Sellers in the end zone. There’s no taking away the win over Georgia last month, but Alabama hasn’t looked like a playoff team the past two weeks and has a trip to Tennessee next Saturday. — Low
Previous ranking: 8
The Tigers rolled through another opponent this past weekend, beating Wake Forest 49-14, the fourth time they scored 40 or more points this season. The offense has found a nice balance with Cade Klubnik (No. 5 in the nation in total QBR) and Phil Mafah (6.9 yards per rush), and the defense has held its past three opponents to two touchdowns or less.
Suddenly, Clemson looks like a favorite to make it back to the ACC championship game. There are some obstacles ahead — including Louisville and back-to-back road trips at Virginia Tech and Pitt. But if Clemson keeps playing consistently, the Tigers will control their destiny. — Andrea Adelson
Previous ranking: 10
The Cyclones quietly are 6-0 for the first time since 1938, following the 28-16 victory at West Virginia. Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht continues to play efficiently, throwing for 265 yards and a touchdown. Becht has posted a QBR of 64 or above in every game this season, and now ranks 25th nationally in QBR (76.3).
With running back Carson Hansen adding three touchdowns, more than he had all of last season, and Jayden Higgins producing back-to-back 100-yard receiving games for the first time in his career, Iowa State’s offense is coming together. With Kansas State beginning to roll as well, Farmageddon in Ames on Nov. 30 could be for a berth in the Big 12 title game, and potentially a spot in the playoff, as well. — Trotter
Previous ranking: 12
With a 6-0 record at the halfway point of the regular season, BYU looks like a team destined for the playoff. The Cougars might not play a ranked team the rest of the regular season and, as things sit, would be favored against every team left on their schedule. Against Arizona on Saturday, BYU might have played its best game of the season.
It tied its season high with 41 points and forced four turnovers, running away with the game in the third quarter. The offense hasn’t exactly been explosive, but with the way BYU has played with control thanks to its stout defense, it has been necessarily effective. As quarterback Jake Retzlaff continues to improve, so should the Cougars. — Kyle Bonagura
Previous ranking: 16
The Tigers’ growth on defense under first-year coordinator Blake Baker is obvious and remarkable, and showed up in huge ways during Saturday night’s come-from-behind overtime win against Ole Miss. Baker’s bunch bought a struggling Garrett Nussmeier and the offense enough time to rally and eventually win, but even if LSU had fallen short, the progress showed. Consider that LSU allowed 55 points and 706 yards — by far the highest total the Tigers had allowed — to Ole Miss in 2023, and already lost top defender Harold Perkins Jr. to a season-ending knee injury.
Continued excellence from players like Bradyn Swinson, Greg Penn III and Whit Weeks has given the defense a new streak of confidence. Nussmeier admitted Saturday was one of his worst performances, and he will need to be more efficient during a second-half schedule that includes Alabama, Texas A&M and others. But coach Brian Kelly is finally seeing his team’s performance match its preparation, which keeps the College Football Playoff very much in play. — Adam Rittenberg
Previous ranking: 13
The Irish have managed to get themselves back into playoff contention after a tough loss to Northern Illinois in Week 2. A 49-7 win over Stanford has given the Irish four wins in a row. Riley Leonard threw for 229 yards and three touchdowns in the win, while the Irish racked up 229 yards rushing and four TDs on the ground. But the road ahead looks a lot more difficult now than it did when the season began.
Georgia Tech has proved to be resilient and excellent running the ball; meanwhile Army and Navy are both undefeated. Virginia is also a vastly improved team. Still, if Notre Dame can win out, the Irish would be in great position to earn an at-large playoff spot. — Adelson
Previous ranking: 14
After a historic first half, Indiana had a chance to exhale and reflect on a 6-0 start with so many statistical ties to 1967, the last time the Hoosiers shared a Big Ten title. But to actually end the streak without a championship, IU must navigate a second-half schedule that begins with Nebraska and also features Ohio State, Michigan and Washington.
Nebraska’s 3-3-5 defense will pose the biggest challenge to date for an Indiana offense that has eclipsed 40 points in five consecutive games for the first time in team history, and boasts nine scoring drives of 10 plays or more, which matches the team’s total from 2023. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke, the first IU player since 1967 to record three or more touchdown passes in three Big Ten games, faces a Huskers defense with seven interceptions. Mikail Kamara (five sacks, 7.5 tackles for loss) and the IU defense will try to fluster Dylan Raiola in the most anticipated Hoosiers home game in many years. — Rittenberg
Previous ranking: 9
Josh Heupel said it more than once Saturday night. It hasn’t been perfect for his Vols, especially on offense, but they managed to squeeze past Florida 23-17 in overtime after being held scoreless in the first half for the second straight week. They weren’t able to overcome that drought a week ago in a 19-14 loss to Arkansas, but survived at home thanks to a defense that stood its ground in key moments. Florida led 3-0 at the half, but it could have easily been 21-0.
The Gators managed just one field goal in four trips inside the 20-yard line in the first half, and Tennessee defensive end James Pearce Jr. forced a fumble inside the 1 when he stripped the ball away from quarterback Graham Mertz. The Vols (5-1, 2-1 SEC) still have some serious polishing to do in their passing game, but they are leaning on a defense right now that has yet to give up more than 19 points in all six games this season. — Low
Previous ranking: 15
The Aggies’ passing game faltered in their only loss, a 23-13 defeat to Notre Dame, with Conner Weigman going 12-of-30 for 100 yards and two interceptions. Weigman suffered an AC joint injury in the game and reaggravated it the following week against McNeese, with redshirt freshman Marcel Reed stepping in. Reed polished off that win, then started three games in place of Weigman and accounted for eight scores with no interceptions, including six TD passes. But he never topped 178 yards in the three games and completed 54.4% of his passes on the season.
The Aggies saw the potential of their offense when Weigman returned, going 18-of-22 for 276 yards in a 41-10 blowout of No. 9 Missouri, with Weigman delivering precision back-shoulder throws and fitting passes into tight windows. The Aggies rank 112th nationally in passing at 181 yards per game, but Weigman’s efficiency could be a game changer. — Wilson
Previous ranking: 17
The Heisman Trophy résumé for Ashton Jeanty gets better every week. This time, college football’s leading rusher put up 217 rushing yards, 20 receiving yards and two total touchdowns on 34 touches in the Broncos’ 28-7 road win at Hawai’i.
Jeanty has set the bar so impossibly high that a 217-yard rushing performance against the No. 1 scoring defense in the Mountain West actually dropped his season average down to 208 yards per game. Boise State’s defense pitched a shutout in the second half and sacked Hawai’i quarterback Brayden Schager eight times. The Broncos have an idle week up next before their much-anticipated showdown with UNLV in Las Vegas on Oct. 25. — Max Olson
Previous ranking: 19
The Panthers are 6-0 for the first time since 1982 after a 17-15 win over Cal and had to rely on their defense to stay undefeated after an uncharacteristically off day from quarterback Eli Holstein. Pitt racked up a season-high six sacks and held Cal to under 100 yards rushing.
After an open date, Pitt faces six opponents that all have winning records — including SMU and Clemson (both undefeated in league play). Holstein threw two interceptions and Pitt had only 277 yards of offense, so that is one area that is sure to be emphasized on the open date this week. — Adelson
Previous ranking: 18
K-State proved its toughness late Saturday night in a thrilling 31-28 win at Colorado. The Wildcats could’ve fallen apart in a last-minute meltdown after the Buffaloes grabbed the lead with 3:12 left thanks to a fourth-down interception by Avery Johnson. The young QB rallied in the clutch, responding with a three-play touchdown drive capped by a 50-yard strike to Jayce Brown.
Running back DJ Giddens (220 total yards) was impressive all night long and now leads the Big 12 in rushing yards, and the Wildcats succeeded in applying consistent pressure to Shedeur Sanders and getting stops when they needed them. Up next is another tough road test at 3-3 West Virginia. — Olson
Previous ranking: 22
The Mustangs took the week off, but with BYU chugging along to 6-0, SMU’s lone loss looks better and better. It was a game in which the Mustangs probably outplayed BYU, too, and it’s impossible to argue the notion that the Mustangs have taken a big step forward since turning the offense over to Kevin Jennings.
The rest of the slate is manageable, too — though a Week 10 date with Pitt looms large — and the once long-shot odds for an ACC title game appearance now seem entirely reasonable. — Hale
Previous ranking: 11
Lane Kiffin has a CFP-caliber roster but likely will not get the Rebels their first CFP appearance. The team’s margin for error is gone after its second loss in three games. Undoubtedly most frustrating for Kiffin is that his offense, led by quarterback Jaxson Dart and a host of dynamic wide receivers and backs, looked shockingly ordinary in both setbacks. Ole Miss could have put away LSU with one touchdown drive in the second half but could not reach the end zone despite four consecutive possessions that went inside the LSU 30-yard line.
Sacks allowed and penalties really hurt the Rebels. Dart, Tre Harris and others continue to put up numbers, but they feel empty without the touchdowns and wins in the biggest games. Ole Miss still can gain CFP consideration by winning out, which would include a Nov. 9 home clash against Georgia. But the Rebels could easily be undefeated with a team that made clear upgrades on defense and retained most of its top pieces. — Rittenberg
Previous ranking: 25
Army just keeps rolling. The Black Knights moved to 6-0 for the season with a 44-10 romp over UAB on Saturday in West Point. They rolled to 515 total yards, with quarterback Bryson Daily throwing for 102 yards and one touchdown (on just three completions, naturally) and rushing for 136 yards and four scores.
Against an admittedly weak (to date) schedule, they’ve won by an average score of 40-10, and they’re one of just two teams (along with Indiana) who have yet to trail in 2024. They will be solid favorites in each game between now and Week 13, when they face Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium. Then they could look to either one or two games against Navy late in the year. What a story this is becoming. — Bill Connelly
Previous ranking: 23
Mizzou made an odd, mid-October trip to Amherst, Massachusetts, in search of confidence after a blowout loss to Texas A&M. The Tigers certainly didn’t find much resistance from host UMass: Brady Cook completed 14 of 19 passes for 219 yards and two scores, and Mizzou rolled to a 45-3 win. The Tigers’ offense, disappointing thus far, gained 461 yards while mostly taking the fourth quarter off.
Star Luther Burden III caught five balls for 59 yards and rushed for a 61-yard touchdown; he left the game in the third quarter with a shoulder injury that coach Eliah Drinkwitz downplayed after the game. The Tigers were preseason CFP contenders because of that offense, and it must now show up against a pair of opponents far more stout than UMass: Auburn in Week 8 and Alabama in Week 9. — Connelly
Previous ranking: 24
The Illini improved to 5-1, but their defense, which had risen to No. 12 in points allowed, cratered for the first time against a new-look Purdue offense. Illinois saw a 27-3 third-quarter lead disappear as the Boilers piled up 40 points in the final 22:43 of regulation and scored on their lone overtime possession before linebacker Dylan Rosiek stifled the decisive 2-point conversion attempt. Coordinator Aaron Henry must figure out how such a strong defense surrendered 382 yards and 14 first downs to a left-for-dead Purdue team after halftime.
Illinois can still contend in the Big Ten and for a CFP spot, but the next two weeks will be pivotal as it hosts Michigan and then travels to Oregon. The good news is the Illini continue to get strong play from quarterback Luke Altmyer (379 passing yards, three touchdowns, no interceptions against Purdue), and they sparked their run game with 177 yards and three touchdowns Saturday. — Rittenberg
Previous ranking: NR
Navy had a bye week to bask in the glow of an unbeaten start. The Midshipmen have won five games by an average score of 44-20, and that includes a potentially vital conference win over Memphis in Week 4. Quarterback Blake Horvath leads the nation in Total QBR, with 771 passing yards and 565 rushing yards.
The Midshipmen won their past two games on the road, and any hopes of an unbeaten finish will require continuing the road warrior mentality: They’ve got only two games left in Annapolis. They’ll face Notre Dame in East Rutherford, New Jersey, in Week 9, and they have only one home game between now and a potentially huge visit from Tulane in Week 12. So far, so good. — Connelly
Previous ranking: NR
After an idle week, Nebraska hits the road to face No. 16 Indiana in a showdown that will validate whichever team wins as a legitimate factor in the Big Ten race. Just as important, the 5-1 Huskers have a chance to finally break an ignominious streak. A sixth win would mean bowl eligibility in Year 2 under Matt Rhule, ending the longest active bowl game drought among all Power 4 programs. How long has it been? Nebraska’s last holiday road trip was the 2016 TransPerfect Music City Bowl, a 38-24 loss to a Tennessee squad led by Butch Davis that featured Josh Dobbs and Alvin Kamara. — Olson
The final weekend of the MLB season is here — and there’s still plenty to play for!
In the National League, the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs have both clinched postseason berths, with the Brewers also taking home the NL Central title. The Philadelphia Phillies have locked up the NL East title, and the Los Angeles Dodgers clinched their fifth straight NL West title on Thursday. The New York Mets beat the Marlins on Saturday and, with the Cincinnati Reds playing on the Brewers later Saturday night, they’re (momentarily, at least) back in the lead in the NL wild-card race.
In the American League, the Toronto Blue Jays became the first AL team to secure a playoff spot and the New York Yankees and Seattle Mariners joined them days later. While the Detroit Tigers clinched a postseason spot Saturday, in one the biggest twists of the 2025 season, the Cleveland Guardians have rocked the playoff picture with a September surge, emerging as a serious contender in the AL wild-card race and for the AL Central title.
Beyond division races, there are many storylines to watch as the regular season comes to an end and playoffs begin: Where do current playoff matchups stand? What games should you be paying attention to each day leading up to October? Who will be the next team to clinch a postseason berth? And what does the playoff schedule look like?
We have everything you need to know as the regular season hits the homestretch.
Key links: Full MLB standings | Wild-card standings
Who’s in?
The Brewers clinched the season’s first playoff spot for a second consecutive year on Sept. 13 and followed up by securing their third straight NL Central title. They earned a bye in the first round and are playing for the NL’s overall No. 1 seed.
The Phillies clinched a spot in the postseason on Sept. 14. With a win the following night, Philadelphia clinched the NL East title for the second straight year. On Wednesday, the Phils beat the Marlins to clinch a first-round bye and home-field advantage in the NLDS.
The Cubs clinched their spot in the postseason on Sept. 17 and will be making their first playoff appearance in a full-length season since 2018. With a win on Saturday, they clinched home-field advantage in their wild-card series with the Padres.
With a win Thursday over the Diamondbacks, the Dodgers clinched the NL West title for the 12th time in the past 13 years. They will be the No. 3 seed in the NL and host the No. 6 seed in the wild-card series.
The Blue Jays became the first AL team to secure a postseason berth with a with over the Royals on Sept. 21. They are currently tied with the Yankees for first place in the AL East — the division winner will earn a bye.
The Padres clinched their fourth postseason trip in six years with a walk-off win over the Brewers on Monday. They will travel to Chicago to meet the Cubs in the wild-card series.
The Yankees became the second AL team to clinch a playoff spot with a walk-off win over the White Sox on Tuesday. They are currently tied with the Blue Jays for first place in the AL East — the division winner will earn a bye.
The Mariners clinched their first postseason appearance since 2022 on Tuesday and, with a 9-2 win on Wednesday, won their first AL West crown since 2001. They earned a bye in the first round.
With a win against the Tigers on Friday, Boston clinched an AL Wild Card berth. They will be the road team in one wild-card series.
With a win in Boston on Saturday, Detroit clinched at least an AL Wild Card berth. They are still in play to win the AL Central.
Who can clinch a playoff spot next?
Upcoming clinch possibilities:
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The Guardians can clinch today with a win OR a loss by the Astros
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The Brewers can clinch the NL’s No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the postseason today with a win OR a loss by the Phillies
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The Blue Jays can clinch the AL East and the AL’s #1 seed Sunday with a win OR a loss by the Yankees
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The Yankees can clinch the AL East and the AL’s #1 seed Sunday with a win AND a loss by the Blue Jays
What are this October’s MLB playoff matchups as it stands now?
American League
Wild-card round: (6) Tigers at (3) Guardians, (5) Red Sox at (4) Yankees
ALDS: Tigers/Guardians vs. (2) Mariners, Red Sox/Yankees vs. (1) Blue Jays
National League
Wild-card round: (6) Reds at (3) Dodgers, (5) Padres at (4) Cubs
NLDS: Reds/Dodgers vs. (2) Phillies, Padres/Cubs vs. (1) Brewers
Tiebreaker scenarios
AL East teams
Toronto Blue Jays
Win tiebreaker: Mariners, Red Sox, Yankees
Lose tiebreaker: Guardians
New York Yankees
Win tiebreaker: Mariners
Lose tiebreaker: Blue Jays, Guardians, Red Sox
Boston Red Sox
Win tiebreaker: Astros, Guardians, Yankees
Lose tiebreaker: Blue Jays, Mariners, Tigers
AL Central teams
Cleveland Guardians
Win tiebreaker: Astros, Tigers, Yankees, Blue Jays
Lose tiebreaker: Mariners, Red Sox
Detroit Tigers
Win tiebreaker: Red Sox, Astros
Lose tiebreaker: Guardians, Mariners
AL West teams
Seattle Mariners
Win tiebreaker: Tigers, Guardians, Red Sox
Lose tiebreaker: Blue Jays, Yankees
Houston Astros
Win tiebreaker: N/A
Lose tiebreaker: Guardians, Red Sox, Tigers
NL East teams
Philadelphia Phillies
Win tiebreaker: Dodgers
Lose tiebreaker: Brewers
New York Mets
Win tiebreaker: N/A
Lose tiebreaker: Reds
NL Central teams
Milwaukee Brewers
Win tiebreaker: Phillies
Lose tiebreaker: N/A
Chicago Cubs
Win tiebreaker: Dodgers
Lose tiebreaker: N/A
(Padres and Cubs tied season series, division record tiebreaker TBD)
Cincinnati Reds
Win tiebreaker: Mets
Lose tiebreaker: N/A
NL West teams
Los Angeles Dodgers
Win tiebreaker: Padres
Lose tiebreaker: Brewers, Cubs, Phillies
San Diego Padres
Win tiebreaker: N/A
Lose tiebreaker: Dodgers
(Padres and Cubs tied season series, division record tiebreaker TBD)
Breaking down the AL race
The Blue Jays are trying to hold for the AL’s No. 1 seed and division title. While Toronto has the tiebreaker in the AL East, the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees are both headed to the postseason regardless. And the Seattle Mariners separated themselves from the Houston Astros in a two-team AL West race to win their first division crown since 2001. Meanwhile, the Cleveland Guardians are going toe-to-toe with the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central while also playing themselves into a tight race for the final wild-card spot.
And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:
Breaking down the NL race
The Brewers were the first MLB team to seal its spot in October, and the Phillies — who then sealed an NL East title — clinched next. A group of contenders have separated themselves atop the NL standings with the New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds battling for the final playoff spot, with the Dodgers (who won the division) and Padres headed to the postseason from the NL West.
And what about when these teams get to the postseason? Here’s what their chances are for every round:
Game of the day
Looking for something to watch today? Here’s the baseball game with the biggest playoff implications:
Playoff schedule
Wild-card series
Best of three, all games at better seed’s stadium
Game 1: Tuesday, Sept. 30
Game 2: Wednesday, Oct. 1
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 2*
Division series
Best of five
ALDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Sunday, Oct. 5
Game 3: Tuesday, Oct. 7
Game 4: Wednesday, Oct. 8*
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 10*
NLDS
Game 1: Saturday, Oct. 4
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 6
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 8
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 9*
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 11*
League championship series
Best of seven
ALCS
Game 1: Sunday, Oct. 12
Game 2: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 3: Wednesday, Oct. 15
Game 4: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 5: Friday, Oct. 17*
Game 6: Sunday, Oct. 19*
Game 7: Monday, Oct. 20*
NLCS
Game 1: Monday, Oct. 13
Game 2: Tuesday, Oct. 14
Game 3: Thursday, Oct. 16
Game 4: Friday, Oct. 17
Game 5: Saturday, Oct. 18*
Game 6: Monday, Oct. 20*
Game 7: Tuesday, Oct. 21*
World Series
Best of seven
Game 1: Friday, Oct. 24
Game 2: Saturday, Oct. 25
Game 3: Monday, Oct. 27
Game 4: Tuesday, Oct. 28
Game 5: Wednesday, Oct. 29*
Game 6: Friday, Oct. 31*
Game 7: Saturday, Nov. 1*
* If necessary
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Bill Connelly
Since the college football preseason, it has been easy to circle Week 5 as sort of a rubber-meets-road weekend. It’s finally here, and it’s as big as we could have hoped.
Oregon and Penn State have beaten seven overwhelmed opponents by an average score of 48-8; their seasons begin in earnest in Happy Valley on Saturday night. Alabama’s loss to Florida State in Week 1 made the Tide’s first trip to Athens, Georgia, in a decade even bigger from a consequences perspective. Unbeaten LSU and Ole Miss face off for what could be their third straight down-to-the-wire affair. Top-ranked Ohio State’s first road test of the season pits the Buckeyes against a Washington team with one of the most prolific offenses in the country.
Those are just the main events! On Friday night, resurgent Florida State visits a wonderfully surprising Virginia team. After last week’s merciless blowout of Illinois, Indiana has to avoid a massive letdown at Iowa, where many a letdown has occurred. Notre Dame and Arkansas play for the first time in a battle of frustrating and spectacularly explosive teams. Auburn and Texas A&M, which have played many wild and silly games over the past decade, have lots on the line in College Station. USC tests its unbeaten record in Champaign against scorned Illinois. We even get a Big Sky Saturday night with a battle of FCS top-10 teams!
We’ve spent four weeks gearing up for this one. Time to get hyped and hydrated. Here’s everything you need to follow in an incredible Week 5.
Games are Saturday unless noted; times are Eastern.
The season begins in Happy Valley
No. 6 Oregon at No. 3 Penn State (7:30 p.m., NBC)
With all due respect to Nevada, Florida International and Villanova — the No. 138, 134 and 186 teams, respectively, in my all-division SP+ rankings — Penn State began its 2025 season with three glorified scrimmages. Per SP+, an average top-five team would expect to start the season 3-0 against those opponents 97.3% of the time, winning by an average of 38.3 points per game. The Nittany Lions won by exactly 38.3 per game.
Penn State traded résumé-building opportunities and a little bit of margin for error for three sure wins and got them. Oregon also hasn’t played much of a murderer’s row; the Ducks have dominated four teams ranked between 89th and 123rd in SP+. They didn’t allow their first non-garbage-time touchdown until last Saturday. Nothing is a must-win game for two name-brand Big Ten teams with unbeaten records, but neither of these teams will have sparkling strength-of-schedule rankings if they’re in, say, a large pile of 10-2 playoff hopefuls. It’s probably best to win this one.
Penn State’s defense has been every bit as dominant as we expected, considering James Franklin already had a top-five defense and added the best defensive coordinator in the country (Jim Knowles) to lead it. The Nittany Lions force turnovers and don’t allow big plays, and they’ve continued to dominate the red zone as they did last season. The run defense maybe hasn’t dominated as much as I thought it would, but the pass defense has been just about perfect: Corner Elliot Washington II has more catches (one interception) than he has allowed (0-for-6), defensive end Dani Dennis-Sutton has been as good as advertised (4.5 tackles for loss, 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles), and linebacker Tony Rojas has picked up where he left off in last year’s College Football Playoff (4.5 TFLs, two sacks). Freshman end Chaz Coleman has quickly become a weapon, too.
To put it politely, the offense has been rather reserved. Franklin is the type of coach who would keep things vanilla and put as little as possible on film before a big game. PSU isn’t allowing pressure or negative plays and has committed just one turnover in three games, and Drew Allar hasn’t really looked to make big plays — he has thrown just four passes 30 or more yards downfield, completing two for touchdowns. The Nittany Lions have been content to lean on opponents until they fall over.
Still, you’d like to think that, with so few deep-ball attempts, Allar would be completing more than 65% of his passes. And you’d like to think that, even with vanilla playcalling, Nicholas Singleton would be averaging more than 4.4 yards per carry. Kaytron Allen, another star back, has been dynamite (8.0 yards per carry, lots of broken tackles), new receivers Trebor Pena and Kyron Hudson have done their jobs, and tight end Luke Reynolds has caught 13 of 16 passes. But Allar and Singleton haven’t been as sharp as necessary. Can they turn it on now that the season is really starting? Especially against this defense?
The Oregon pass defense has looked fantastic so far, and both star edge rusher Matayo Uiagalelei (three sacks, one pass breakup) and linebacker Teitum Tuioti (4.5 TFLs, 5 run stops, 1.5 sacks) have looked the part. As with PSU, the run defense has been imperfect — the rebuilt defensive front is still settling in — but the Ducks are forcing loads of passing downs and three-and-outs.
I was unsure about Oregon’s offense heading into the season because it would be relying on so many new starters, but the Ducks are fourth in points per drive, second in offensive SP+ and first in overall SP+. It seems as though things are going pretty well. Quarterback Dante Moore has been as automatic as coordinator Will Stein could want, completing 75% of his passes with just one sack. The receiver quartet of Malik Benson, Dakorien Moore, Gary Bryant Jr. and Jeremiah McClellan has caught 44 of 58 passes for 662 yards. Moore has also connected on four of seven downfield shots of more than 30 yards. His QB radar is nearly a perfect circle now.
Running back Jayden Limar enjoyed a star turn during Noah Whittington‘s injury absence, but now Whittington should be back. It has all worked. Even against a top-40 Northwestern defense, the Ducks scored on six of nine drives and averaged 6.7 yards per play. But this is still the biggest game of Moore’s career, and it will be played against one of the best defenses in the country in front of maybe college football’s loudest crowd (on White Out day, no less). It’s impossible to know a team is ready for that until it proves it.
Current line: PSU -3.5 | SP+ projection: Oregon by 0.4 | FPI projection: PSU by 0.3
Bama has a lot to lose at Georgia
No. 17 Alabama at No. 5 Georgia (7:30 p.m., ABC)
At this point last year, Alabama gave us the two best games of 2024.
1:02
Alabama answers right back with Ryan Williams’ 75-yard touchdown
Jalen Milroe heaves one to Ryan Williams, who goes 75 yards to restore Alabama’s lead.
First, the Tide outlasted Georgia in an unreal 41-34 game that featured a huge Bulldogs comeback and maybe the greatest play of the season. Then, they turned around and lost to Vanderbilt in the upset of the year. In a lovely instance of symmetry, Bama once again gets Georgia and Vandy back-to-back. But the challenges won’t stop there. Six of the Tide’s next seven opponents rank 16th or better in SP+, and thanks to their dreadful Week 1 showing at Florida State, they don’t have much margin for error. If they lose in Athens on Saturday, in their first road trip since Tallahassee, they might have none.
Since their game against FSU, the Tide have been just about perfect. Louisiana-Monroe and Wisconsin obviously aren’t amazing, but Bama overachieved against SP+ projections by a combined 48.4 points against the Warhawks and Badgers. The offense has surged to fifth nationally in points per possession, though its one-dimensionality could become an issue: The Tide are 18th in passing success rate* but 87th in rushing success rate and are therefore throwing far more frequently than the national average. Against Wisconsin, Bama running backs carried 15 times for just 45 yards, but it didn’t matter because quarterback Ty Simpson went 24-for-29 for 382 yards. (That was after going 17-for-17 for 226 yards against ULM. Like I said: just about perfect.)
(* Success rate: how frequently an offense is gaining 50% of necessary yards on first down, 70% on second, and 100% on third and fourth.)
That pass-heavy ratio probably won’t change Saturday because if you’re going to move the ball on Georgia, it’s through the air: The Dawgs are 10th in rushing success rate allowed but 86th against the pass. Tennessee’s Joey Aguilar threw for 371 yards and four touchdowns, and UT’s Chris Brazzell II torched UGA’s Daniel Harris one-on-one: four targets, four catches, 90 yards, two touchdowns. Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb should find matchups for receivers Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard — and perhaps Isaiah Horton, who has caught nine of nine passes for 105 yards and 2 scores — to exploit.
The Georgia run defense is really strong, with linebackers CJ Allen and Raylen Wilson combining for 28 tackles against the run with four run stops (tackles at or behind the line). But despite blitzing a decent amount, the Dawgs rank just 102nd in sack rate and 111th in yards allowed per dropback. Without marked improvement there, Bama might get away without having to run much.
After sleepwalking through the Austin Peay game in Week 2, the Georgia offense woke up when it had to against Tennessee. The Dawgs were hit-and-miss — six possessions with 69 or more yards, four of 9 or fewer — primarily because negative plays derailed some drives (something that right tackle Earnest Greene III‘s continued injury issues won’t help). But Gunner Stockton was 8-for-11 for 111 yards and 2 touchdowns on third and fourth down.
Efficiency levels are solid despite the negative plays, but big plays are an issue.
You’d rather be near USC or Florida State on that chart, not Iowa and Utah. Stockton is just 3-for-11 on passes thrown more than 20 yards downfield — one of those was the game-saving, fourth-down touchdown lob to London Humphrey against Tennessee — and the Dawgs have gotten some big gainers off short, quick passes to the bouncy Zach Branch, but this isn’t a naturally explosive offense.
Alabama’s defense hasn’t created nearly enough negative plays — the Tide are 68th in sack rate and 83rd in stuff rate — and their opponents’ third-down conversion rate has risen in each game. (Wisconsin was 6-for-11.) That could make them vulnerable to Georgia’s short game, but they could counter that somewhat with big-play prevention: They got burned for four gains of 25 or more against Florida State, but they’ve given up just one such play since.
Because Georgia saved itself against Tennessee with yet another overtime win (its past three wins against power conference teams went to OT), the Dawgs have a little less to lose Saturday. But that’s the fun thing about college football: try to tell the 93,033 in attendance that one team needs this one a little more than the other. Huge games will always feel like huge games, and Bama-Georgia will always be a huge game.
Current line: UGA -3.5 | SP+ projection: Bama by 0.7 | FPI projection: UGA by 1.1
Ole Miss’ revenge or another LSU thriller?
No. 4 LSU at No. 13 Ole Miss (3:30 p.m., ABC)
In five seasons from 1958 to 1962, Ole Miss and LSU met as top-15 opponents five times. You could say it was the Bama-Georgia of the day. (I guess that would make Billy Cannon’s punt return the “Second-and-26” of the day, especially because it probably prevented an Ole Miss national title.) For the next 60 years, though, these types of meetings were sparse. In 2003, Nick Saban’s LSU took down Eli Manning and Ole Miss to decide the SEC West, but that was about it until last year, when the Tigers won a 29-26 overtime thriller without leading for a second.
Ole Miss finished last season second in SP+, but three heartbreaking losses kept them out of the CFP. It felt like an epic missed opportunity because how often can Ole Miss expect to field a team that good? Well, the Rebels are unbeaten and seventh in SP+, and they’ve already avenged one of 2024’s heartbreakers by knocking off Kentucky in Lexington.
It looks like quarterback Trinidad Chambliss will start again for the Rebels. Stepping in for the injured Austin Simmons, the Ferris State transfer has completed 42 of 62 passes for 719 yards and 4 touchdowns with only two sacks, adding 198 non-sack rushing yards and two more scores. The approach with Chambliss has been simple: don’t worry about complicated intermediate passing, just woo defensive backs close to the line of scrimmage with relentless short passing, then hit ’em deep. He has completed 7 of 9 passes thrown 25 or more yards downfield.
Note the big gap in the middle of that pass map. With Chambliss’ legs, a heavy dose of running back Kewan Lacy and receivers like Harrison Wallace III capable of gaining solid yardage on short passes, the Rebels have a lot of ways to stay on schedule. That’s important because LSU dominates when teams get off schedule.
Opponents are just 2-for-26 against LSU on third-and-7 or more, and the Tigers have yet to allow more than 10 points in a game. Brian Kelly did well in the transfer portal by adding former USF defensive tackle Bernard Gooden up front (4 run stops, 6 pressures, 1 forced fumble) and former Virginia Tech cornerback Mansoor Delane. Opponents have targeted Delane’s man 20 times, and he has allowed just three completions with a pick and four breakups.
The LSU defense has controlled games so well that Tigers quarterback Garrett Nussmeier hasn’t had to take many chances. He has thrown only 11 passes more than 20 yards downfield, and he has completed only two of them with an interception. Opponents are blitzing a lot because of LSU’s unproven line and a poor run game, but Nussmeier is completing 73% of all his other passes. Wideouts Aaron Anderson, Barion Brown and Zavion Thomas and tight end Bauer Sharp have all caught at least 11 balls.
The passing game has been sharp enough that a dreadful run game hasn’t yet cost the Tigers. But whew, is it dreadful: LSU is 108th in rushing success rate. Caden Durham got hurt last week against Southeastern Louisiana, but he’s averaging only 4.1 yards per carry. Getting blue-chip freshman Harlem Berry (5.8 per carry with more yards after contact) more touches might not be a bad idea.
The Tigers’ reliance on the pass creates an interesting contrast: Ole Miss’ pass defense has been efficient (18th in passing success rate allowed), but the run defense has been awful (104th). Defensive coordinator Pete Golding rarely blitzes, and Rebel defenders rarely end up in the backfield, but they do a good job of tackling and cluttering passing lanes — opponents have completed just 49% of their passes, third lowest in FBS. You move the ball on Ole Miss on the ground, but LSU moves the ball through the air. We love some nice narrative tension!
Current line: Ole Miss -1.5 | SP+ projection: Ole Miss by 5.7 | FPI projection: Ole Miss by 6.5
The No. 1 team heads west
No. 1 Ohio State at Washington (3:30 p.m., CBS)
It appears conventional wisdom has forgotten about the Washington Huskies. The 2023 national runners-up rank first nationally in points per drive and ninth in yards per play, they have beaten three overwhelmed opponents by an average of 56-18, and they boast one of the nation’s most entertaining backfields with dual-threat quarterback Demond Williams Jr. and tackle-breaking back Jonah Coleman. But they have zero AP poll votes. How?
Granted, they probably won’t get any votes next week either because they will probably lose to Ohio State. The top-ranked Buckeyes took a week off after moving to 3-0, and they head west with one of the best defenses in the country.
With safety Caleb Downs and veteran breakout stars in tackle Caden Curry and OLB Arvell Reese, the Buckeyes likely have the tools to frustrate a young quarterback like Williams, and considering Washington’s banged-up defense ranks 61st in points allowed per drive without having played a top-80 offense (per SP+), it’s hard to see the Huskies making enough stops.
Despite one-third of its games coming against Texas’ excellent defense, Ohio State ranks second in passing success rate and completion rate. The Buckeyes’ run game isn’t nearly as strong as we’re used to seeing — then again, rising freshman Bo Jackson (no relation) has gained 217 yards in his first 18 carries — but quarterback Julian Sayin has thrived throwing to stars Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate (combined: 32 catches, 534 yards, 6 touchdowns), and I don’t know how UW disrupts that connection with star cornerback Tacario Davis questionable and nickel Dyson McCutcheon out. (Linebacker Buddah Al-Uqdah is also out.)
So why am I giving this game marquee treatment instead of sticking it in the playlist below? A few reasons:
• This is Sayin’s first road start, and plenty of awesome, young quarterbacks have stumbled on the road early in their careers. Washington also blitzes a lot and has at least one excellent pass rusher in Jacob Lane.
• Net YAC! I wrote about the impact of yards after contact this week, and Washington is one of the nation’s best teams at grinding out YAC and allowing none for opponents.
• The Huskies’ offense ranks first in third-down conversion rate (75.0%) and, combined with Coleman successfully fighting for extra yards, could move the chains and frustrate Ohio State’s defense.
• Everyone fails a test at some point, but in five career starts, Williams has completed 78% of his passes at 14.6 yards per completion with 402 non-sack rushing yards and only one interception. He’s incredible, and there’s nothing like a visit from the No. 1 team to introduce yourself to the world.
Yes, Ohio State probably wins. But Washington might not need many breaks to take this one down to the wire.
Current line: OSU -7.5 (down from -9.5 Sunday) | SP+ projection: OSU by 10.2 | FPI projection: OSU by 5.0
YAC kings in action
That’s right, this week’s keyword is YAC. Yards after contact are the secret weapon for teams exceeding expectations, and quite a few Week 5 games will highlight 2025’s YAC kings. That includes two games pitting YAC kings against one another.
No. 8 Florida State at Virginia (Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN).
FSU has vaulted back into the top 10 as if 2024’s collapse was a figment of our imagination. The Seminoles are fifth in net YAC and second in rushing yards per game — veteran coordinator Gus Malzahn has gone back to his rushing roots, and it’s pretty spicy to watch. Virginia, however, is eighth in net YAC and has leaped from 74th to 42nd in SP+. An offense with seven transfer starters, including RB J’Mari Taylor, has improved almost as much as Florida State’s.
Current line: FSU -6.5 | SP+ projection: FSU by 2.9 | FPI projection: FSU by 2.5
No. 11 Indiana at Iowa (3:30 p.m., Peacock).
Indiana (sixth in net YAC) hits the road to face an Iowa team (ninth in net YAC) that has upset four top-15 teams at home in the past decade. Curt Cignetti’s Hoosiers have to watch out for a letdown after last week’s Illinois blowout, but while Iowa’s offense has scored 30 points three times this season, the only decent defense the Hawkeyes have faced, Iowa State’s, held them to 13. Kinnick Stadium will need to summon loads of magic (and YAC) for the Hawkeyes to take this one.
Current line: Indiana -7.5 | SP+ projection: Indiana by 9.2 | FPI projection: Indiana by 8.7
No. 21 USC at No. 23 Illinois (noon, Fox).
Two weeks ago, USC (seventh in net YAC) wobbled but kept it together in a 33-17 win at Purdue. This midwestern trip should be trickier. Illinois got YAC’d to pieces by Indiana and will probably respond with physicality, but the Illini still must slow down Jayden Maiava and a great USC passing game.
Current line: USC -6.5 | SP+ projection: USC by 7.6 | FPI projection: USC by 6.3
No. 25 BYU at Colorado (10:15 p.m., ESPN).
BYU (fourth in net YAC) is just mean. The Cougars rank first in points allowed per drive and force tons of negative plays, and running back LJ Martin is a great security blanket for freshman QB Bear Bachmeier. Colorado’s offense found its footing last week against Wyoming, but the BYU defense is a different obstacle.
Current line: BYU -6.5 | SP+ projection: BYU by 8.6 | FPI projection: BYU by 8.1
Rice at Navy (3:30 p.m., CBSSN).
If you’re a fan of the multiview box, this one will be a lovely complement to LSU-Ole Miss and Ohio State-Washington. Not only do you get another glimpse at unbeaten Navy (first in net YAC), but you also get to watch a Rice option offense averaging 246 rushing yards per game.
Current line: Navy -14.5 | SP+ projection: Navy by 17.9 | FPI projection: Navy by 15.7
Virginia Tech at NC State (7 p.m., The CW).
Hollywood Smothers leads the nation in yards after contact, and he has been the primary driver of NC State’s 3-1 start. The defense gives up far too many big plays, and for all of Virginia Tech’s flaws, receivers Ayden Greene and Donavon Greene are explosive. But you’re watching this one for Smothers.
Current line: NC State -9.5 | SP+ projection: NC State by 9.7 | FPI projection: NC State by 3.5
UMass at No. 20 Missouri (7:30 p.m., ESPNU).
OK, you don’t need to watch much of this, especially during a loaded prime-time slot. But any glimpse of Mizzou (second in net YAC) and backs Ahmad Hardy and Jamal Roberts (combined: 898 yards and eight TDs) is worth the effort.
Current line: Mizzou -43.5 | SP+ projection: Mizzou by 52.5 | FPI projection: Mizzou by 44.5
Week 5 chaos superfecta
We’re once again using this space to will chaos into existence, looking at four carefully curated games with pretty big point spreads and mashing them together into a much more upset-friendly number. Thanks to San Diego State’s shocking blowout of Cal, we’re now 3-for-4 this season. Our power is only growing stronger.
This week, SP+ says there’s only a 46% chance that Indiana (72% win probability at Iowa), Utah (83% at West Virginia), Houston (85% at Oregon State) and Memphis (90% at FAU) all win. Someone’s suffering a letdown game after either a big win (Indiana or Memphis) or a long flight (Utah or Houston).
Week 5 playlist
Here are some more games you should pay attention to if you want the absolute most out of the weekend, from both information and entertainment perspectives.
Friday evening
No. 24 TCU at Arizona State (9 p.m., Fox). It took a couple of weeks, but ASU has officially checked into the 2025 season with an easy win over Texas State and a buzzer-beater over Baylor in Waco. The Sun Devils haven’t lost a conference game in more than 11 months, but TCU has very the part in 2025. Pair this with FSU-Virginia, and you’ve got a hell of a Friday night!
Current line: ASU -3.5 | SP+ projection: TCU by 1.3 | FPI projection: TCU by 0.1
Early Saturday
No. 22 Notre Dame at Arkansas (noon, ABC). Notre Dame and Arkansas have won three games by a combined 113 points and lost four by a combined 11. That’s pretty tough to do, and one of them will head into October with a losing record despite obvious upside. I’ll be really disappointed if we don’t get a track meet here, considering their seven games have averaged 69.7 total points thus far.
Current line: ND -3.5 (down from -6.5) | SP+ projection: Arkansas by 2.2 | FPI projection: ND by 1.4
Cincinnati at Kansas (noon, TNT). I think Cincinnati might be good. I know Kansas is. The Jayhawks led Missouri in the fourth quarter and beat three other opponents (including West Virginia) by a combined 118-24. Cincinnati’s offense ranks second nationally in success rate — second rushing, third passing — and the defense ranks first in yards allowed per successful play. If they figure out how not to completely stink on third downs, the Bearcats could pull an upset.
Current line: KU -4.5 (down from -6.5) | SP+ projection: KU by 9.8 | FPI projection: KU by 5.2
Duke at Syracuse (noon, ACCN). How good is Rickie Collins? The sophomore LSU transfer — and new Syracuse starter — was just 3-for-8 against Clemson after stepping in for the injured Steve Angeli, but his 18-yard touchdown pass to Justus Ross-Simmons put away the upset. Duke’s pass defense has been surprisingly disastrous this season, but the Blue Devils can rush the passer and potentially stress Collins.
Current line: Duke -6.5 (up from -4.5) | SP+ projection: ‘Cuse by 4.0 | FPI projection: ‘Cuse by 3.1
Louisville at Pitt (noon, ESPN2). Louisville has yet to play a top-50 opponent, per SP+, but the Cardinals have a good pass defense and maybe the most explosive running back corps in FBS. Pitt, meanwhile, has an explosive passing game and maybe the best run defense Louisville will face. I think Louisville’s really good, but Pitt is pretty good at making things messy and thriving in the chaos.
Current line: Louisville -4.5 | SP+ projection: Louisville by 3.6 | FPI projection: Louisville by 1.7
Rutgers at Minnesota (noon, BTN). For the second straight week, Rutgers will try to entice a known rock-fight lover into a wide-open battle. Both teams are coming off frustrating losses — Minnesota lost by 13 to a Cal team that proceeded to get drubbed by San Diego State, and Rutgers dragged Iowa into a track meet but lost 38-28. The loser of this one just hopes to get to 6-6.
Current line: Minnesota -4.5 | SP+ projection: Minnesota by 2.8 | FPI projection: Minnesota by 1.2
No. 14 Georgia Tech at Wake Forest (noon, ESPN). Wake Forest has outscored opponents 66-30 in the first and third quarters but has been outscored 23-10 in the second and fourth. The Demon Deacons led NC State 14-0 two weeks ago but were outscored 34-10 from there. That’s probably a bad sign against a Tech team that seems to have some 60-minute staying power (the Jackets are at least +15 in every quarter).
Current line: Tech -13.5 | SP+ projection: Tech by 14.1 | FPI projection: Tech by 11.7
Utah State at No. 18 Vanderbilt (12:45 p.m., SECN). We don’t yet know how good these teams are — USU has overachieved against SP+ projections by 15.0 points per game (10th nationally) while Vandy is at +16.8 (eighth). Clark Lea’s Commodores are likely quite a bit better than Bronco Mendenhall’s Aggies, but if Miles Davis and the USU run game get going, they could make this uncomfortable for a bit.
Current line: Vandy -23.5 (up from -21.5) | SP+ projection: Vandy by 24.2 | FPI projection: Vandy by 22.7
Saturday afternoon
Auburn at No. 9 Texas A&M (3:30 p.m., ESPN). Since 2013, these teams have played games decided by scores of 45-41, 43-41, 41-38, 28-24 and 13-10. The matchup scores pretty high on the “potential nonsense” scale, and it’s a huge game for both teams: Auburn is a projected favorite in only two games the rest of the season and needs to initiate a rally before Georgia and Missouri come to town next month. A&M, meanwhile, needs to get to 6-0 before a three-game SEC road trip. A&M gives up lots of big plays, but Auburn doesn’t make many.
Current line: A&M -6.5 | SP+ projection: A&M by 5.0 | FPI projection: A&M by 4.7
No. 15 Tennessee at Mississippi State (4:15 p.m., SECN). Tennessee has reverted to its track meet days, scoring at least 41 points in every game and allowing at least 24 in three. The Vols are also very good. Mississippi State might be too. The Bulldogs have overachieved against SP+ projections by 9.5 points per game this season, and, well, if they hit that mark Saturday, they’re 5-0.
Current line: Vols -7.5 | SP+ projection: Vols by 7.7 | FPI projection: Vols by 6.5
UCLA at Northwestern (3:30 p.m., BTN). I can’t tell you to actually watch this game — I have a strong sense of morbid curiosity, but it only goes so far. Still, I bring this game up for one reason: UCLA has a 22% chance of going 0-12 this season, per SP+, and this is the only game remaining in which the Bruins aren’t double-digit projected underdogs. Lose this one, and 0-12 odds skyrocket.
Current line: NU -6.5 | SP+ projection: NU by 2.0 | FPI projection: NU by 7.0
Saturday evening
Arizona at No. 14 Iowa State (7 p.m., ESPN). The first Arizona-ISU game since 1968 is a big one: The teams are a combined 7-0, and the winner will be in the top tier of Big 12 contenders. When Rocco Becht and ISU attempt to pass — a semi-frequent occurrence because of a shaky run game — it will be strength vs. strength. Becht is quite efficient, but ‘Zona ranks second nationally in yards allowed per dropback.
Current line: ISU -5.5 | SP+ projection: ISU by 8.3 | FPI projection: ISU by 2.8
Appalachian State at Boise State (7:30 p.m., FS1). Boise State is shifting into gear behind a ridiculously explosive run game and an aggressive defense. App State is struggling offensively, but the Mountaineers’ defense ranks second nationally in havoc rate (TFLs, passes defended and forced fumbles per play) and dominates third downs. Can they score enough to make things interesting?
Current line: BSU -16.5 | SP+ projection: BSU by 18.0 | FPI projection: BSU by 12.9
Late Saturday
FCS: No. 10 Idaho at No. 4 Montana (10:15 p.m., ESPN2). Time for the Little Brown Stein! BYU-Colorado is the only late game in FBS, and the Big Sky gets a national showcase. Idaho has lost a pair of FBS games by just six combined points and boasts a super fun dual-threat QB in Joshua Wood. Montana can either throw over you (Keali’i Ah Yat is averaging 287.7 passing yards per game) or run through you (Eli Gillman is averaging 9.1 yards per carry). The Big Sky loves a good rock fight, but this one has track meet potential.
SP+ projection: Griz by 13.1
Smaller-school showcase
We always save a shout-out for the glorious lower levels of the sport. In addition to Idaho-Montana, here are three more games you should track.
FCS: No. 18 South Dakota at No. 1 North Dakota State (2 p.m., ESPN+). Before the season, I thought this might be the FCS game of the year. South Dakota stumbled early, however, and will now try to beat FCS’ best team with turnovers and random big plays. NDSU has been in fifth gear all season, winning three games by a combined 138-17. The skill corps combo of RB Barika Kpeenu and WR Bryce Lance is unfair.
SP+ projection: NDSU by 25.7
FCS: Brown at Harvard (6 p.m., ESPN+). The Ivy League looked fantastic in its season debut last week, and these teams — which beat poor Stetson and Georgetown by a combined 105-7 — were as good as anyone. Both teams created loads of big-pass plays, and whoever prevents them better in this one (probably Harvard) moves to 2-0.
SP+ projection: Harvard by 18.1
Division II: No. 8 California (Pa.) at No. 4 Slippery Rock (6 p.m., local streaming). I named Slippery Rock as a small-school team you should adopt, and the Rock have responded with wins both dramatic (overtime over Shepherd) and resounding (42-0 over Shippensburg). Now comes a big test. The Cal Vulcans are allowing 4.8 yards per play and forcing loads of turnovers, and safety Alexie Sangster Jr. might be one of the best DBs in Division II.
SP+ projection: The Rock by 8.0
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