Tesla needs to come clean about HW3 before the word ‘fraud’ comes out
The walls are closing on Tesla’s claim that millions of its vehicles with Hardware 3 (HW3) computers will be capable of unsupervised self-driving.
Tesla needs to come clean before the word “fraud” comes out.
Making a mistake is not a fraud. If Tesla really thought that it could deliver unsupervised self-driving to vehicles equipped with HW3 and, at one point, it figured out that it couldn’t, it’s not fraud even though it used that as a selling point for millions of vehicles for years.
However, the moment Tesla figures out that it can’t, it needs to stop selling its Full Self-Driving package to HW3 vehicle owners and come clean to owners about what their vehicle will and will not be able to do, like a robotaxi service.
Has the moment come?
Delivering self-driving on Tesla HW3/self-driving computer
In 2016, Elon Musk announced that all future Tesla vehicles would come equipped with the necessary hardware for self-driving capabilities, even specifying “level 5 self-driving,” which implies the ability to operate autonomously under any conditions. However, shortly after, Musk acknowledged that Tesla might require more onboard computing power than initially thought, leading to the introduction of Hardware 3 (HW3), which Tesla also called its “self-driving computer”.
Musk assured that HW3 would enable full self-driving (FSD) capabilities, promising retrofits for earlier models that had purchased the FSD package. When I bought my own Tesla Model 3 in 2018, it was equipped with the original computer, but since I had purchased the FSD package, Tesla upgraded my car with the new “self-driving computer” in 2019.
Following this, Tesla introduced Hardware 4 (HW4), a more advanced onboard computer system, but did not offer retrofits for older models with HW3, maintaining that HW3 was sufficient for achieving self-driving through software updates.
Musk said that it wouldn’t be “economically feasible” to retrofit HW3 vehicles with HW4, which not only includes a more powerful computer but also better cameras.
Initially, Musk claimed that FSD improvements would first be optimized for HW3, suggesting that HW4 might lag behind by at least “six months”. However, Tesla reversed this approach with the release of FSD version 12.5, which was first deployed to HW4 vehicles. Musk explained that optimizing the software for the less powerful HW3 would take additional time.
This has raised a significant red flag hinting at the limitations of HW3 in handling the latest software advancements towards unsupervised self-driving, a capability Tesla promised to HW3 owners since 2016.
The concern is especially significant within the context that Tesla still has a lot of work to do to deliver its unsupervised self-driving capabilities.
Tesla has always gone out of its way not to release any data regarding its FSD program. Therefore, we have to rely on crowdsourced data, which shows Tesla is currently at about 122 miles between critical disengagement:
According to most experts, Tesla needs a ~1,000x increase in miles between disengagement to deliver on its unsupervised self-driving promises. As you can see, this data shows that Tesla achieved a ~2x improvement over the last 3 years.
On top of this situation, CEO Elon Musk got people even more worried during the launch of the Robotaxi last week.
While discussing his claim that “all Tesla vehicles will be capable of self-driving,” someone in the crowd asked him about the Cybertruck, which Musk quickly answered with a “yes.”
However, when someone asked him about HW3 vehicles, instead of simply responding “yes”, Musk said “Let’s not get nuanced here” and then quickly asked for the next slide:
Now, still at the Robotaxi event last week, some have been pointing to this interaction with Tesla executives Franz von Holzhausen and Lars Moravy saying again that robotaxi-level self-driving is coming to “all cars” after being asked more specifically about HW3 as evidence that Tesla believes it’s still possible to deliver FSD unsupervised on HW3:
With all due respect to von Holzhausen and Moravy, they wouldn’t be the best people to ask. The former is in charge of design and the latter of vehicle engineering, which you would think the FSD program would fall under, but no.
Ashok Elluswamy leads the program at Tesla and reports directly to CEO Elon Musk.
That’s evidenced by some mistakes made even in this short interaction like Moravy saying that Tesla announced its self-driving effort in 2014 when it was in 2016 and him asking if a 2018 Model 3 has HW4, which has never been available on early Model 3 vehicles.
Speaking of the Robotaxi event, Musk said that the new Robotaxi is equipped with a new hardware suite, especially a new on board computer called AI5. He didn’t elaborate on the capacity of the new computer. The vehicle also has a bumper camera, which only the Cybertruck has and no other Tesla vehicle on the road today. The onboard compute power is one thing, but it’s also not the only potential bottleneck for Tesla with older hardware.
Another important piece of evidence pointing to Tesla not being able to deliver unsupervised self-driving on HW3 vehicles is the fact that it doesn’t have any compute redundancy anymore.
Electrek spoke with a well-known Tesla hacker called ‘green‘ who often reveals information about Tesla through his deep dives into the automaker’s software. He actually released the first HW3 images back in 2019.
Green reports that starting in late 2023, Tesla started to use both nodes for its FSD program on HW3 – running some new neural nets on the extra node. Originally, the idea was to have one for redundancy, which is necessary for higher levels of autonomy like levels 4 and 5, but arguably also level 3.
Now, green says that if one of the nodes fails, FSD doesn’t drive anymore. It can still produce FSD visualizations, but that’s about it. That alone basically kisses goodbye to robotaxi-level self-driving on HW3.
It’s also worth noting that shortly after green noticed this change happened, Tesla started to shift its priority from releasing new software on HW4 first rather than HW3.
Tesla is reducing its liability
Tesla has been trying to actively reduce its legal liability regarding HW3 by encouraging people who bought FSD to upgrade to newer vehicles.
For years Tesla owners have been asking Tesla to allow them to freely transfer their FSD package to a new vehicle. It makes sense. Tesla hasn’t delivered the product they have paid for. It’s the bare minimum to allow them to transfer it to a new car.
After years of refusing, Musk eventually agreed to FSD transfer last year, but he called it a “one-time amnesty” and said to take advantage of it.
That turned out not to be true. Tesla brought back the FSD transfer twice more since – with last quarter Musk saying “one more time”. And then, sure enough, Tesla brought it back for a fourth time this quarter.
This fake incentive to upgrade your older car with FSD to a newer one now because it’s the “last time” has a positive effect on Tesla’s liability regarding HW3.
When Tesla resales those used HW3 vehicles with FSD, they use their new language called “(Supervised) Full Self-Driving”, which opens the door for Tesla to say that they are only selling you self-driving that needs to be “supervised” by a driver.
But interestingly, for HW2 vehicle owners who never purchased FSD, Tesla is still selling them a $1,000 HW3 computer upgrade and $2,000 FSD software package ($2,000 if you have Enhanced Autopilot) with still the old language in the upgrade page:
That’s where Tesla would be adding liability as it would be “upgrading” a car to a 5-year-old computer that is already lagging behind on updates to its newer 2-year-old computer (HW4).
Electrek’s Take
Let’s be honest. Tech is rarely supported with software updates after 5-7 years. Tesla Hardware 3 is entering that zone. It is becoming obsolete and normally, it wouldn’t be a problem, but Tesla sold a Full Self-Driving capability package for up to $15,000 based on this hardware that it never delivered.
At the minimum, it will have to reimburse that, but owners can even argue that they bought the car because Elon Musk told them it would become self-driving over time and become an “appreciating asset.”
This could quickly become a very large liability for Tesla, and the way it handles it is also important.
Musk said that retrofits are not economically feasible from HW3 to HW4. It’s true that it would be quite expensive and also likely create an insurmountable amount of work for Tesla’s already overworked service teams. The HW4 computer doesn’t have the same power harness or camera harnesses as the HW3, and it doesn’t share a form factor that fits in the exact same spot.
Also, the cameras have been upgraded with HW4, which raises the question, “Is the computing power the only problem, or does the camera also need to improve?”
If it’s just the computing power, Tesla could potentially design a new computer that could be more easily retrofitted in HW3 cars, but even then, that’s something that needs to be disclosed.
As I said, if Tesla knows that it can’t deliver unsupervised self-driving on HW3, it needs to let owners know right now and stop selling the software package to HW3 owners without a clear plan to make things right. Otherwise, this quickly becomes fraudulent.
The fact that Elon and Tesla have been wrong so many times about self-driving is already not a great confidence builder for them delivering on HW4 vehicles or even on the new AI5 (Robotaxi), but if they are also actively misleading owners, then Tesla becomes untrustworthy.
I am seriously concerned that Tesla is going to rely on the “corporate puffery” defense to frame Elon’s promises as “mere puff”.
After I first brought up the potential of Tesla reaching the limits of HW3 earlier this year, many Elon superfans started to make claims that Tesla and Elon never promised robotaxi-level self-driving capabilities on HW3 cars, which is plain ridiculous.
Tesla could also blame regulators as this is the new language that you have to agree with when buying what is now called “Full Self-Driving (Supervised)”:
The currently enabled Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (Supervised) features require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous. Full autonomy will be dependent on achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers as demonstrated by billions of miles of experience, as well as regulatory approval, which may take longer in some jurisdictions. As Tesla’s Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (Supervised) features evolve, your vehicle will be continuously upgraded through over-the-air software updates.
On the very same day that Tesla presented its new Robotaxi, Former President Donald Trump, who Tesla CEO Elon Musk is financially backing to become the next president and who he says he is “all-in” on, said that he would “ban autonomous vehicles on American roads.”
This situation is quite a mess to say the least.
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The new CLA Shooting Brake is the first electric Mercedes vehicle available as an estate. It’s more spacious, more capable, and more high-tech than ever.
Meet the new Mercedes CLA Shooting Brake EV
Mercedes introduced the new CLA Shooting Brake on Tuesday, its first electric estate car. The Shooting Brake arrives as the second EV from the luxury brand’s new entry-level family of vehicles.
The electric wagon takes the best of the new CLA, which was revealed just a few weeks ago, and adds more space and capability.
It’s also bigger than the current CLA Shooting Brake, offering a more spacious interior. The new EV measures 4,723 mm in length, or 35 mm longer than the outgoing model.
With an extended wheelbase of 2,790 mm (+61 mm), the electric version offers 14 mm more headroom and 11 mm more legroom in the front. Rear passengers gain 7 mm of headroom but lose 6 mm of legroom compared to the current model.
Boot space is 455 L, which is 50 L more than the CLA sedan, but 30 L less than the outgoing Shooting Brake. However, it does include an added Frunk (front trunk) for an extra 101 L of storage space.
With all seats folded, overall storage space is 1,290 L. It also comes with standard roof rails, which Mercedes claims can easily fit surfboards or bicycles with a 75 kg (165 lbs) load capacity.
Inside, the new Shooting Brake is nearly identical to the CLA Sedan. It features the new Mercedes-Benz Operating System (MB.OS) with its fourth-gen infotainment.
The setup includes a 14″ infotainment and 10.25″ driver display screens. An extra 14″ passenger screen is available. A trim piece with star-pattern graphics replaces it if not. All three screens are powered by the latest-gen chips and graphics from Unity Game Engine.
Powered by the new Mercedes-Benz Modular Architecture and an 85 kWh battery, the new Shooting Brake EV offers up to 473 miles (761 km) WLTP range.
It will be available in single and dual-motor powertrains. The base CLA 250+ Shooting Brake has 268 hp (200 kW) output and a WLTP range of up to 473 miles (761 km). Meanwhile, the dual-motor CLA 350 4MATIC Shooting Brake has combined 349 hp (260 kW) and a range of up to 454 miles (730 km).
Based on its 800V architecture, the new electric estate can add 193 miles (310 km) WLTP driving range within 10 minutes. Mercedes said that should be plenty to get from Geneva to Milan or Berlin to Hamburg.
Mercedes will introduce new EV variants in early 2026, followed by a 1.5 L hybrid model. Prices will be revealed closer to launch, but it’s expected to start slightly higher than the current model. The current CLA Shooting Brake starts at around €40,000 ($46,500) in Europe.
Following the new CLA and CLA Shooting Brake, Mercedes-Benz plans to launch two SUVs. Check back soon for more info on the upcoming lineup.
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Environment
U.S. moving fast to secure access to critical minerals to counter China’s dominance of market, Pentagon says
The Pentagon is taking immediate action to boost critical mineral production in the U.S. and counter China’s dominance of the supply chain for rare earth magnets, a defense official told CNBC on Tuesday.
The Defense Department last week agreed to buy a direct equity stake in MP Materials, which will make the U.S. government the miner’s largest shareholder. MP operates the only rare earth mine in the U.S. located at Mountain Pass, California, and a magnet plant in Forth Worth, Texas.
When asked whether the Pentagon is considering similar investments in other U.S. mining companies, the defense official said it is looking at opportunities to strengthen domestic critical mineral production.
“Rebuilding the critical minerals and rare earth magnet sectors of the U.S. industrial base won’t happen overnight, but DoD is taking immediate action to streamline processes and identify opportunities to strengthen critical minerals production,” official said in a statement.
Rare earths are used in weapons such as the F-35 warplane, drones and submarines among other other military platforms. The U.S. was almost entirely dependent on foreign countries for rare earths in 2023, with China representing about 70% of imports, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.
MP Materials CEO James Litinsky told CNBC last week that he views the public-private partnership with the Defense Department as a model for other companies in industries that are important for national security but struggle to compete against the state-backed enterprises in China.
“I’d like to think that this is sort of the first, it’s a model,” Litinsky told CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” on Thursday. “We have to deliver at MP and show that this is an incredible route to go. But it’s a new way forward to accelerate free markets, to get the supply chain on shore that we want.”
Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said in April that the U.S. government was looking at taking direct equity stakes in critical mineral and rare earth miners to break China’s dominance. The Trump administration is also looking at stockpiling critical minerals and creating a sovereign risk insurance fund to protect companies investments’ in federally approved projects, Burgum said at an energy conference in Oklahoma City.
The Pentagon makes long-term investments in mining, processing and refining critical minerals, the defense official told CNBC. It has invested $540 million so far to support a critical mineral and rare earth supply chain in the U.S. and allied nations, the official said.
“That is significant, and DoD will continue to such efforts in accordance with congressional appropriations and statutory authorities,” the official said.
Jakub Porzycki | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Fairshake, the cryptocurrency industry’s most powerful political action committee, announced Tuesday that it now holds more than $141 million in cash on hand, underscoring the sector’s growing influence as Congress takes up landmark legislation this week.
The total, which includes liquid assets like crypto, stock, and cash, reflects a surge of donations from digital asset executives and firms, including a fresh $25 million from Coinbase.
Fairshake and its two affiliated PACs — Defend American Jobs and Protect Progress — have raised $109 million since Election Day in 2024 and $52 million during just the first half of this year.
“We are building an aggressive, targeted strategy for next year to ensure that pro-crypto voices are heard in key races across the country,” said spokesperson Josh Vlasto.
The announcement lands in the middle of what lawmakers are calling “Crypto Week” on Capitol Hill, as the House begins deliberations on a trio of long-awaited bills that would define how digital assets are regulated.
The legislation includes the dividing of oversight, setting new stablecoin rules, and a bill banning the creation of a central bank digital currency.
The crypto industry is no longer just lobbying for survival, it is shaping the political landscape. Fairshake saw nearly every candidate it backed in 2024 win their race.
“We stuck to our core strategy from Day 1,” Fairshake previously told CNBC. “We supported pro-crypto candidates and opposed those who played politics with jobs and innovation, and won.”
WATCH: How crypto and fintech may perform under the second Trump administration
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