Tesla needs to come clean about HW3 before the word ‘fraud’ comes out
The walls are closing on Tesla’s claim that millions of its vehicles with Hardware 3 (HW3) computers will be capable of unsupervised self-driving.
Tesla needs to come clean before the word “fraud” comes out.
Making a mistake is not a fraud. If Tesla really thought that it could deliver unsupervised self-driving to vehicles equipped with HW3 and, at one point, it figured out that it couldn’t, it’s not fraud even though it used that as a selling point for millions of vehicles for years.
However, the moment Tesla figures out that it can’t, it needs to stop selling its Full Self-Driving package to HW3 vehicle owners and come clean to owners about what their vehicle will and will not be able to do, like a robotaxi service.
Has the moment come?
Delivering self-driving on Tesla HW3/self-driving computer
In 2016, Elon Musk announced that all future Tesla vehicles would come equipped with the necessary hardware for self-driving capabilities, even specifying “level 5 self-driving,” which implies the ability to operate autonomously under any conditions. However, shortly after, Musk acknowledged that Tesla might require more onboard computing power than initially thought, leading to the introduction of Hardware 3 (HW3), which Tesla also called its “self-driving computer”.
Musk assured that HW3 would enable full self-driving (FSD) capabilities, promising retrofits for earlier models that had purchased the FSD package. When I bought my own Tesla Model 3 in 2018, it was equipped with the original computer, but since I had purchased the FSD package, Tesla upgraded my car with the new “self-driving computer” in 2019.
Following this, Tesla introduced Hardware 4 (HW4), a more advanced onboard computer system, but did not offer retrofits for older models with HW3, maintaining that HW3 was sufficient for achieving self-driving through software updates.
Musk said that it wouldn’t be “economically feasible” to retrofit HW3 vehicles with HW4, which not only includes a more powerful computer but also better cameras.
Initially, Musk claimed that FSD improvements would first be optimized for HW3, suggesting that HW4 might lag behind by at least “six months”. However, Tesla reversed this approach with the release of FSD version 12.5, which was first deployed to HW4 vehicles. Musk explained that optimizing the software for the less powerful HW3 would take additional time.
This has raised a significant red flag hinting at the limitations of HW3 in handling the latest software advancements towards unsupervised self-driving, a capability Tesla promised to HW3 owners since 2016.
The concern is especially significant within the context that Tesla still has a lot of work to do to deliver its unsupervised self-driving capabilities.
Tesla has always gone out of its way not to release any data regarding its FSD program. Therefore, we have to rely on crowdsourced data, which shows Tesla is currently at about 122 miles between critical disengagement:
According to most experts, Tesla needs a ~1,000x increase in miles between disengagement to deliver on its unsupervised self-driving promises. As you can see, this data shows that Tesla achieved a ~2x improvement over the last 3 years.
On top of this situation, CEO Elon Musk got people even more worried during the launch of the Robotaxi last week.
While discussing his claim that “all Tesla vehicles will be capable of self-driving,” someone in the crowd asked him about the Cybertruck, which Musk quickly answered with a “yes.”
However, when someone asked him about HW3 vehicles, instead of simply responding “yes”, Musk said “Let’s not get nuanced here” and then quickly asked for the next slide:
Now, still at the Robotaxi event last week, some have been pointing to this interaction with Tesla executives Franz von Holzhausen and Lars Moravy saying again that robotaxi-level self-driving is coming to “all cars” after being asked more specifically about HW3 as evidence that Tesla believes it’s still possible to deliver FSD unsupervised on HW3:
With all due respect to von Holzhausen and Moravy, they wouldn’t be the best people to ask. The former is in charge of design and the latter of vehicle engineering, which you would think the FSD program would fall under, but no.
Ashok Elluswamy leads the program at Tesla and reports directly to CEO Elon Musk.
That’s evidenced by some mistakes made even in this short interaction like Moravy saying that Tesla announced its self-driving effort in 2014 when it was in 2016 and him asking if a 2018 Model 3 has HW4, which has never been available on early Model 3 vehicles.
Speaking of the Robotaxi event, Musk said that the new Robotaxi is equipped with a new hardware suite, especially a new on board computer called AI5. He didn’t elaborate on the capacity of the new computer. The vehicle also has a bumper camera, which only the Cybertruck has and no other Tesla vehicle on the road today. The onboard compute power is one thing, but it’s also not the only potential bottleneck for Tesla with older hardware.
Another important piece of evidence pointing to Tesla not being able to deliver unsupervised self-driving on HW3 vehicles is the fact that it doesn’t have any compute redundancy anymore.
Electrek spoke with a well-known Tesla hacker called ‘green‘ who often reveals information about Tesla through his deep dives into the automaker’s software. He actually released the first HW3 images back in 2019.
Green reports that starting in late 2023, Tesla started to use both nodes for its FSD program on HW3 – running some new neural nets on the extra node. Originally, the idea was to have one for redundancy, which is necessary for higher levels of autonomy like levels 4 and 5, but arguably also level 3.
Now, green says that if one of the nodes fails, FSD doesn’t drive anymore. It can still produce FSD visualizations, but that’s about it. That alone basically kisses goodbye to robotaxi-level self-driving on HW3.
It’s also worth noting that shortly after green noticed this change happened, Tesla started to shift its priority from releasing new software on HW4 first rather than HW3.
Tesla is reducing its liability
Tesla has been trying to actively reduce its legal liability regarding HW3 by encouraging people who bought FSD to upgrade to newer vehicles.
For years Tesla owners have been asking Tesla to allow them to freely transfer their FSD package to a new vehicle. It makes sense. Tesla hasn’t delivered the product they have paid for. It’s the bare minimum to allow them to transfer it to a new car.
After years of refusing, Musk eventually agreed to FSD transfer last year, but he called it a “one-time amnesty” and said to take advantage of it.
That turned out not to be true. Tesla brought back the FSD transfer twice more since – with last quarter Musk saying “one more time”. And then, sure enough, Tesla brought it back for a fourth time this quarter.
This fake incentive to upgrade your older car with FSD to a newer one now because it’s the “last time” has a positive effect on Tesla’s liability regarding HW3.
When Tesla resales those used HW3 vehicles with FSD, they use their new language called “(Supervised) Full Self-Driving”, which opens the door for Tesla to say that they are only selling you self-driving that needs to be “supervised” by a driver.
But interestingly, for HW2 vehicle owners who never purchased FSD, Tesla is still selling them a $1,000 HW3 computer upgrade and $2,000 FSD software package ($2,000 if you have Enhanced Autopilot) with still the old language in the upgrade page:
That’s where Tesla would be adding liability as it would be “upgrading” a car to a 5-year-old computer that is already lagging behind on updates to its newer 2-year-old computer (HW4).
Electrek’s Take
Let’s be honest. Tech is rarely supported with software updates after 5-7 years. Tesla Hardware 3 is entering that zone. It is becoming obsolete and normally, it wouldn’t be a problem, but Tesla sold a Full Self-Driving capability package for up to $15,000 based on this hardware that it never delivered.
At the minimum, it will have to reimburse that, but owners can even argue that they bought the car because Elon Musk told them it would become self-driving over time and become an “appreciating asset.”
This could quickly become a very large liability for Tesla, and the way it handles it is also important.
Musk said that retrofits are not economically feasible from HW3 to HW4. It’s true that it would be quite expensive and also likely create an insurmountable amount of work for Tesla’s already overworked service teams. The HW4 computer doesn’t have the same power harness or camera harnesses as the HW3, and it doesn’t share a form factor that fits in the exact same spot.
Also, the cameras have been upgraded with HW4, which raises the question, “Is the computing power the only problem, or does the camera also need to improve?”
If it’s just the computing power, Tesla could potentially design a new computer that could be more easily retrofitted in HW3 cars, but even then, that’s something that needs to be disclosed.
As I said, if Tesla knows that it can’t deliver unsupervised self-driving on HW3, it needs to let owners know right now and stop selling the software package to HW3 owners without a clear plan to make things right. Otherwise, this quickly becomes fraudulent.
The fact that Elon and Tesla have been wrong so many times about self-driving is already not a great confidence builder for them delivering on HW4 vehicles or even on the new AI5 (Robotaxi), but if they are also actively misleading owners, then Tesla becomes untrustworthy.
I am seriously concerned that Tesla is going to rely on the “corporate puffery” defense to frame Elon’s promises as “mere puff”.
After I first brought up the potential of Tesla reaching the limits of HW3 earlier this year, many Elon superfans started to make claims that Tesla and Elon never promised robotaxi-level self-driving capabilities on HW3 cars, which is plain ridiculous.
Tesla could also blame regulators as this is the new language that you have to agree with when buying what is now called “Full Self-Driving (Supervised)”:
The currently enabled Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (Supervised) features require active driver supervision and do not make the vehicle autonomous. Full autonomy will be dependent on achieving reliability far in excess of human drivers as demonstrated by billions of miles of experience, as well as regulatory approval, which may take longer in some jurisdictions. As Tesla’s Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (Supervised) features evolve, your vehicle will be continuously upgraded through over-the-air software updates.
On the very same day that Tesla presented its new Robotaxi, Former President Donald Trump, who Tesla CEO Elon Musk is financially backing to become the next president and who he says he is “all-in” on, said that he would “ban autonomous vehicles on American roads.”
This situation is quite a mess to say the least.
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Tesla has quietly removed the Cybertruck’s range extender from the options in its online configurator.
Does Tesla still plan to bring the product to market?
When Tesla unveiled the production version of the Cybertruck in late 2023, there were two main disappointments: the price and the range.
The tri-motor version, which was the most popular in reservation tallies, was supposed to have over 500 miles of range and start at $70,000.
Tesla now sells the tri-motor Cybertruck for $100,000 and only has a range of 320 miles.
As for the dual-motor Cybertruck, it was supposed to cost $50,000 and have over 300 miles of range. The reality is that it starts at $80,000, and it has 325 miles of range.
However, Tesla had devised a solution to bring the range closer to what it originally announced: a separate battery pack that sits in the truck’s bed. Tesla called it a “range extender.” It costs $16,000 and takes up a third of the Cybertruck’s bed.
Even though the Cybertruck has been in production for a year and a half at this point, the range extender has yet to launch.
Initially, Tesla said that it would come “early 2025”, but we reported that it was pushed to “mid-2025” late last year.
At the time, Tesla also reduced the range that the removable battery pack adds to the Cybertruck to “445+ miles” rather than “470+ miles” for the dual motor – a ~25-mile reduction in range.
Now, Tesla has removed the option from its online Cybertruck configurator. It used to take reservations for the range extender with a “$2,000 non-refundable deposit”, as seen on the image above, but now it’s not in the configurator at all at the time of writing.
It’s unclear if Tesla is not planning to launch the product anymore or if it is just pausing reservations.
In its specs page, Tesla still lists the achievable range of both versions of the Cybertruck with and without the range extender battery:
Electrek’s Take
I’m curious. Is it dead, or does Tesla just want to stop taking reservations for it?
At first, I was curious about the product even though I didn’t think it would make up for Tesla’s significant miss on Cybertruck specs.
However, after it was confirmed that it takes up 30% of your bed and that it needs to be installed and removed by Tesla at a service center, I think it’s pretty much dead on arrival at $16,000.
It’s going to be a product limited to only a few people at best. And now that’s if it makes it to market.
With the option being removed from the configurator, there’s no production timeline available. Again, the last one was “mid-2025”, which is soon.
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Environment
EcoFlow members can save up to 65% on power stations while supporting disaster relief during the 2025 Member’s Festival
Portable power station specialist EcoFlow is kicking off its third annual Member’s Festival this month and is offering a unique new rewards program to those who become EcoFlow members. The 2025 EcoFlow Member’s Festival will offer savings of up to 65% for its participating customers, and a portion of those funds will be allocated toward rescue power solutions for communities around the globe through the company’s “Power for All” fund.
EcoFlow remains one of the industry leaders in portable power solutions and continues to trek forward in its vision to power a new tech-driven, eco-conscious future. Per its website:
Our mission from day one is to provide smart and eco-friendly energy solutions for individuals, families, and society at large. We are, were, and will continue to be a reliable and trusted energy companion for users around the world.
To achieve such goals, EcoFlow has continued to expand its portfolio of sustainable energy solutions to its community members, including portable power stations, solar generators, and mountable solar panels. While EcoFlow is doing plenty to support its growing customer base, it has expanded its reach by giving back to disaster-affected communities by helping bolster global disaster response efforts the best way it knows how– with portable power solutions.
EcoFlow and its members look to provide “Power for All”
Since 2023, EcoFlow has collaborated with organizations worldwide as part of its “Power for All” mission. This initiative aims to ensure access to reliable and timely power to disaster-affected communities across the globe, including rescue agencies, affected hospitals, and shelters, to support rescue and recovery efforts.
This fund most recently provided aid for communities affected by the recent Los Angeles wildfires, assistance to the Special Forces Charitable Trust (SFCT) in North Carolina following severe hurricanes, and support for non-profits engaged in hurricane preparedness in Florida and the Gulf Coast. Per Jodi Burns, CEO of the Special Forces Charitable Trust:
In the wake of devastating storms in Western North Carolina, reliable power was a critical need for the families we serve. Thanks to EcoFlow’s generous donation of generators, we were able to provide immediate relief, ensuring these families and their communities had access to power when they needed it most. We are so impressed with EcoFlow’s commitment to disaster response through their ‘Power for All’ program. It has made a tangible impact, and we are deeply grateful for their support and partnership in helping these families recover and rebuild.
In 2024, the US experienced 27 weather and climate events, each causing losses exceeding $1 billion, marking the second-highest annual total on record, according to National Centers for Environmental Information. The increasing frequency and severity of natural disasters underscore the critical need for reliable and timely power solutions during emergencies, much like EcoFlow and its members are helping provide through the “Power For All” initiative.
To support new and existing EcoFlow members, the company is celebrating its third annual Member’s Festival throughout April to offer a do-not-miss discount on its products and donate a portion of all sales to the “Power for All” fund to provide rescue power to those in need in the future. Learn how it all works below.
Save big and give back during the 2025 Member’s Festival
As of April 1st, you can now sign up to become an EcoFlow member to participate in the company’s exclusive 2025 Member Festival.
As a member, you can earn “EcoFlow Power Points” by completing tasks like registration, referrals, and product purchases and tracking your individual efforts toward disaster preparedness and recovery.
Beginning April 4, EcoFlow members will also be able to take advantage of exclusive discounts of up to 65% off select portable power stations, including the DELTA Pro Ultra, DELTA Pro 3, DELTA 2 Max, DELTA 3 Plus, RIVER 3 Plus, and more. However, these sale prices only last through April 25, so you’ll want to move quickly!
Click here to learn more about EcoFlow’s “Power for All” campaign. To register for EcoFlow’s 2025 Member Festival in the US, visit the EcoFlow website. To register as a member in Canada, visit here.
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Tesla is losing another top talent: its long-time head of software, David Lau, has reportedly told co-workers that he is exiting the automaker.
Tesla changed how the entire auto industry looks at software.
Before Tesla, it was an afterthought; user interfaces were rudimentary, and you had to go to a dealership to get a software update on your systems.
When Tesla launched the Model S in 2012, it all changed. Your car would get better through software updates like your phone, the large center display was responsive with a UI that actually made sense and was closer to an iPad experience than a car.
Tesla also integrated its software into its retail experience, service, and manufacturing.
David Lau deserves a lot of the credit for that.
He joined Tesla in 2012 as a senior manager of firmware engineering and quickly rose through the ranks. By 2014, he was promoted to director of firmware engineering and system integration, and in 2017, he became Vice President of software.
Lau listed the responsibilities of his team on his LinkedIn:
- Vehicle Software:
- Firmware for the powertrain, traction/stability control, HV electronics, battery management, and body control systems
- UI software and underlying Embedded Linux platforms
- Navigation and routing
- iOS and Android Mobile apps
- Distributed Systems:
- Server-side software and infrastructure that provides telemetry, diagnostics, over-the-air updates, and configuration/lifecycle management
- Data engineering and analytics platforms that power technical and business insights for an increasingly diverse set of customers across the company
- Diagnostic tools and fleet management, Manufacturing and Automation:
- Automation controls (PLC, robot)
- Server-side manufacturing execution systems that power all of Tesla’s production operations
- Product Security and Red Team for software, services, and systems across Tesla
Bloomberg reported today that Lau told his team he is leaving Tesla. The report didn’t include reasons for his stepping down.
Electrek’s Take
Twelve years at any company is a great run. At Tesla, it’s heroic. Congrats, David, on a great run. You undoubtedly had a significant impact on Tesla and software advancements in the broader auto industry.
He is another significant loss for Tesla, which has been losing a lot of top talent following a big wave of layoffs around this time last year.
I wonder who will take over. Michael Rizkalla, senior director of software engineering and vehicle firmware, is one of the most senior software engineers after Lau. He has been at Tesla for 7 years, and Tesla likes to promote within rather than hire outsiders.
There are also a lot of senior software execs working on AI at Tesla. Musk has been favoring them lately and he could fold Lau’s responsibilities under them.
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