ASML on Tuesday offered the first glimpse into how U.S. restrictions on exports of its advanced chip manufacturing tools to China will impact its sales in the Asian country.

The Netherlands-based chip equipment maker said in its earnings report Tuesday, which was released a day early due to a “technical error,” that it expects net sales for 2025 to come in between 30 billion euros and 35 billion euros ($32.7 billion and $38.1 billion). This is at the lower half of the range ASML had guided previously.

ASML is a critical part of the global chip supply chain. The firm’s extreme ultraviolet lithography machines are used by many of the world’s largest chipmakers — from Nvidia to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing — to produce advanced chips.

While third-quarter net sales at the firm reached 7.5 billion euros — beating expectations — net bookings came in at 2.6 billion euros ($2.83 billion), the company said. That was well below a 5.6 billion euro consensus estimate from LSEG.

ASML shares plunged as much as 16% on Tuesday in response, causing the firm to shed over $50 billion in market capitalization in a single day, according to CNBC calculations using LSEG data.

Beyond the disappointment on bookings — which analysts said was due to weakness in a select number of customers, including Intel and Samsung — AMSL also gave an indication of how geopolitical tensions are putting pressure on its 2025 outlook.

Roger Dassen, ASML’s chief financial officer, said Tuesday that he expects the company’s China business to show a “more normalized percentage in our order book and also in our business.”

UBS analysts said the change in ASML’s 2025 guidance was mainly related to delays with the development of new logic fabrication facilities from Intel and Samsung, adding that the new guidance implies sales to China would fall 25% to 30% in 2025.

In September, the Netherlands expanded export restrictions on advanced chip manufacturing equipment by bringing licensing requirements of ASML’s machines under its purview and thereby taking over from the U.S. on controlling what machines ASML is able to export to other countries.

The move meant that the Dutch government would be able to effectively block ASML from maintaining the DUV machines it has sold to China so far.

“China is a very important market for China,” Chris Miller, assistant professor of international history at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and author of the book “Chip War,” told CNBC in emailed comments. “Most of this revenue is from older-generation chipmaking tools.”

Ironically, restrictions on exports of DUV machines to China “have probably helped ASML on net, because China has accelerated purchases of older generation DUV tools as a result,” Miller added.

Now, ASML is expecting a drop-off in sales to China as a result of U.S. trade restrictions. The firm expects China to return to taking up a smaller share of its overall global sales in 2025, CFO Dassen said in a transcript of a video interview Tuesday.

“We do see China trending towards more historically normal percentages in our business,” Dassen said. “So we expect China to come in at around 20% of our total revenue for next year. Which would also be in line with its representation in our backlog.” 

Analysts at Bank of America said the firm faces a “sharp decline in China revenues.” They added that ASML’s forecast of China accounting for around 20% of its revenue in 2025, implies a 48% revenue decline year-over-year — more severe than the 3% they had anticipated.

Abishur Prakash, founder of Toronto-based advisory firm The Geopolitical Business, said that demand from China for ASML’s machines is likely to drop significantly as the firm is “severely restricted by export controls.”

“Like Intel, for whom China is the largest market, ASML is deeply reliant on China,” Prakash told CNBC via email. “For ASML, it is watching what is taking place with China as a potential restriction on business.”

“As the chip world is cut from China, ASML could see demand for its equipment drop — from China and elsewhere,” Prakash added.

Generative artificial intelligence startups are getting 40% of all the venture capital funding that flows into cloud companies, according to venture investors Accel.

In its latest annual Euroscape report, which looks at key cloud and AI trends, Accel said that venture funding for cloud startups based in the U.S., Europe and Israel is projected to rise to $79.2 billion this year, with artificial intelligence fueling much of the recovery.

Venture funding into the cloud industry climbed 27% annually — marking the first year of growth in three years. Cloud startups raised $62.5 billion in Europe, Israel and the U.S. in 2023, the report found.

Funding is up 65% from the $47.9 billion cloud firms raised four years ago, according to Accel.

It comes after OpenAI, the Microsoft-backed company behind the buzzy generative AI chatbot ChatGPT, earlier this month raised $6.6 billion in a mammoth funding round that valued the startup at $157 billion.

Out of the $56 billion total siphoned into genAI firms globally over 2023-24, roughly 80% of the cash went to U.S.-based firms, Accel said, also noting that Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta are each investing an eye-watering average $30 billion to $60 billion in AI per year.

AI “majors” like OpenAI, Anthropic and xAI are spending billions on the technology, Accel said, while smaller challengers including Cohere, H and Mistral are investing tens to hundreds of millions per year. 

Dev Ittycheria, CEO of database firm MongoDB, noted that it’s likely concentration of the most powerful AI models will consolidate to only a select few players that are able to attract the necessary capital to make investments in data centers and chips to train and run their systems.

“Access to capital will profoundly impact the performance of these models,” Ittycheria said in an interview Tuesday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.” He added: “My bet is that over time, you won’t have this many model providers, you may come down to one or two.”

Shares in semiconductor equipment maker ASML fell 15.6% on Tuesday after the Dutch company published disappointing sales forecasts in results a day early.

The move pulled other chip stocks lower, with Nvidia, Advanced Micro Devices and Broadcom all falling at least 4% after the news.

ASML said it expects net sales for 2025 to come in between 30 billion euros and 35 billion euros ($32.7 billion and $38.1 billion), at the lower half of the range it had previously provided.

Net bookings for the September quarter were 2.6 billion euros ($2.83 billion), the company said — well below the 5.6 billion euro LSEG consensus estimate. Net sales, however, beat expectations coming in at 7.5 billion euros.

“While there continue to be strong developments and upside potential in AI, other market segments are taking longer to recover. It now appears the recovery is more gradual than previously expected,” company CEO Christophe Fouquet said in the earnings release.

ASML said that the early publication of its results was due to a technical error which saw it erroneously publish the report on a part of its website.

In the lead-up to the earnings, Wall Street analysts had turned more cautious on the chip firm, which is a critical supplier to the broader semiconductor industry.

Last month, the U.S. government rolled out new export controls on critical technologies to China, including advanced chipmaking tools. Separately, the Dutch government announced plans to take over control of exports of ASML‘s machines to the country.

ASML’s extreme ultraviolet lithography machines are used by many of the world’s largest chipmakers — from Nvidia to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. — to produce advanced chips.

The company’s chief financial officer, Roger Dassen, said Tuesday that he expects the firm’s China business to show a “more normalized percentage in our order book and also in our business.”

“We do see China trending towards more historically normal percentages in our business,” Dassen said, according to a transcript of a video, also released a day early.

“So we expect China to come in at around 20% of our total revenue for next year. Which would also be in line with its representation in our backlog.” 

In its June-quarter earnings presentation, the Dutch company said that 49% of its sales come from China.