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An ASML icon is being displayed on a circuit board, alongside the flags of the USA and China, in this photo illustration taken in Brussels, Belgium, on January 4, 2024.

Jonathan Raa | Nurphoto | Getty Images

ASML on Tuesday offered the first glimpse into how U.S. restrictions on exports of its advanced chip manufacturing tools to China will impact its sales in the Asian country.

The Netherlands-based chip equipment maker said in its earnings report Tuesday, which was released a day early due to a “technical error,” that it expects net sales for 2025 to come in between 30 billion euros and 35 billion euros ($32.7 billion and $38.1 billion). This is at the lower half of the range ASML had guided previously.

ASML is a critical part of the global chip supply chain. The firm’s extreme ultraviolet lithography machines are used by many of the world’s largest chipmakers — from Nvidia to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing — to produce advanced chips.

While third-quarter net sales at the firm reached 7.5 billion euros — beating expectations — net bookings came in at 2.6 billion euros ($2.83 billion), the company said. That was well below a 5.6 billion euro consensus estimate from LSEG.

ASML shares plunged as much as 16% on Tuesday in response, causing the firm to shed over $50 billion in market capitalization in a single day, according to CNBC calculations using LSEG data.

Beyond the disappointment on bookings — which analysts said was due to weakness in a select number of customers, including Intel and Samsung — AMSL also gave an indication of how geopolitical tensions are putting pressure on its 2025 outlook.

Roger Dassen, ASML’s chief financial officer, said Tuesday that he expects the company’s China business to show a “more normalized percentage in our order book and also in our business.”

UBS analysts said the change in ASML’s 2025 guidance was mainly related to delays with the development of new logic fabrication facilities from Intel and Samsung, adding that the new guidance implies sales to China would fall 25% to 30% in 2025.

How important is China to ASML?

ASML’s China-based customers have been stockpiling the firm’s less advanced machines to get ahead of U.S. export restrictions on the Dutch firm and to continue being able to access its critical technology, which enables them to manufacturer chips for the electronics industry.

ASML has never sold its most advanced extreme ultraviolet lithography, or EUV machines to Chinese customers due to previous restrictions.

Instead, chip firms in the country have opted to order ASML’s deep ultra violet lithography, or DUV machines. DUV machines are ASML’s second-tier lithography systems that are critical to make the circuitry of chips.

Last year ASML sourced 29% of its sales from China. It now expects that contribution from China to drop to around 20% of its total revenue in 2025.

Sales to China grew dramatically in the first three quarters of 2024 as customers scrambled to buy ASML’s DUV machines in bulk head of U.S. and Dutch export restrictions.

In the company’s second-quarter 2024 earnings presentation, ASML said that it sourced as much as 49% of its sales from China.

In September, the Netherlands expanded export restrictions on advanced chip manufacturing equipment by bringing licensing requirements of ASML’s machines under its purview and thereby taking over from the U.S. on controlling what machines ASML is able to export to other countries.

The move meant that the Dutch government would be able to effectively block ASML from maintaining the DUV machines it has sold to China so far.

“China is a very important market for China,” Chris Miller, assistant professor of international history at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and author of the book “Chip War,” told CNBC in emailed comments. “Most of this revenue is from older-generation chipmaking tools.”

Ironically, restrictions on exports of DUV machines to China “have probably helped ASML on net, because China has accelerated purchases of older generation DUV tools as a result,” Miller added.

Now, ASML is expecting a drop-off in sales to China as a result of U.S. trade restrictions. The firm expects China to return to taking up a smaller share of its overall global sales in 2025, CFO Dassen said in a transcript of a video interview Tuesday.

“We do see China trending towards more historically normal percentages in our business,” Dassen said. “So we expect China to come in at around 20% of our total revenue for next year. Which would also be in line with its representation in our backlog.” 

Analysts at Bank of America said the firm faces a “sharp decline in China revenues.” They added that ASML’s forecast of China accounting for around 20% of its revenue in 2025, implies a 48% revenue decline year-over-year — more severe than the 3% they had anticipated.

Abishur Prakash, founder of Toronto-based advisory firm The Geopolitical Business, said that demand from China for ASML’s machines is likely to drop significantly as the firm is “severely restricted by export controls.”

“Like Intel, for whom China is the largest market, ASML is deeply reliant on China,” Prakash told CNBC via email. “For ASML, it is watching what is taking place with China as a potential restriction on business.”

“As the chip world is cut from China, ASML could see demand for its equipment drop — from China and elsewhere,” Prakash added.

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Meta is finally bringing ads to WhatsApp

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Meta is finally bringing ads to WhatsApp

It took 11 years since Facebook acquired it for $19 billion, but Meta is finally bringing ads to WhatsApp, marking a major change for an app whose founders shunned advertising.

Meta announced Monday that businesses will now be able to run so-called status ads on WhatsApp that prompt users to interact with the advertisers via the app’s messaging features. The ads will only be shown to users within WhatsApp’s “Updates” tab to separate the promotions from people’s personal conversations. Additionally, Meta will begin monetizing WhatsApp’s Channels feature through search ads and subscriptions. 

The debut of ads on the messaging app represents a significant step in Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg‘s plans to make WhatsApp “the next chapter” in his company’s history, as he told CNBC’s Jim Cramer in 2022. The move to monetize WhatsApp also comes amid Meta’s high-profile antitrust case with the Federal Trade Commission over the company’s blockbuster acquisitions of the messaging app and Instagram.

Already, Meta allows advertisers to run so-called click-to-message ads on Facebook and Instagram that steer users to WhatsApp where they can directly engage with businesses. Messaging between brands and consumers “should be the next pillar of our business,” Zuckerberg told analysts in April, adding that WhatsApp now has over 3 billion monthly users, including “more than 100 million people in the U.S. and growing quickly there.”

Now, companies can run those kinds of ads within WhatsApp itself. The new status ads appear in a user’s Updates tab within that tab’s “Status” feature that can be used to share pictures, videos and text that vanish after 24 hours, akin to Instagram Stories. 

Since Meta bought WhatsApp in 2014, the popular messaging app has continued to grow worldwide. But unlike Facebook, Instagram and most recently Threads, WhatsApp has never allowed advertising.

WhatsApp’s co-founders, Jan Koum and Brian Acton, were public in their scorn for the advertising industry, and the duo left Facebook after reportedly clashing with executives who were eager to inject the app with advertising and other practices they shunned.

The social media company does not reveal WhatsApp’s specific sales, but analysts have previously estimated the app’s revenue to be between $500 million and $1 billion from charging businesses for tools and services so they can message customers on the app.

Meta will “use very basic information” to recommend which ads to show WhatsApp users, Nikila Srinivasan, Meta’s head of product for business messaging, said Friday. This includes a person’s country, city, device, language and data like who they follow or how they interact with ads. 

The company debuted WhatsApp’s Updates tab in June 2023 along with an accompanying Channels feature that allows people and organizations to send broadcast messages and updates to their followers as opposed to personal conversations. Meta will also monetize the Channels feature, the company said Monday.

Organizations and people who are Channel administrators will now be able to spend money to boost the visibility of their respective Channels when a person searches for them via a directory, similar to ads on Apple’s and Google’s app stores.

Additionally, channel administrators will be able to charge users monthly subscription fees to access exclusive updates and content, Meta said Monday. The company will not immediately make money from those monthly subscription fees, but it plans to eventually take a 10% cut of those subscriptions, a spokesperson said.

Meta hopes that by limiting its new ads to WhatsApp’s Updates tab it will disrupt users as little as possible, Srinivasan said. Users’ status updates as well as personal messages and calls on WhatsApp will remain encrypted, she said.

“We really believe that the Updates tab is the right place for these new features,” Srinivasan said.

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Taiwan blacklists China’s Huawei and SMIC, further aligning with U.S. trade policy

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Taiwan blacklists China's Huawei and SMIC, further aligning with U.S. trade policy

The U.S. has placed major chip export restrictions on Huawei and Chinese firms over the past few years. This has cut off companies’ access to critical semiconductors.

Jaap Arriens | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Taiwan has added China’s Huawei and SMIC to its trade blacklist in a move that further aligns it with U.S. trade policy and comes amid growing tensions with Beijing. 

The two leading Chinese chip firms have been put on Taiwan’s “Strategic High-Tech Commodities Entity List,” along with many of their international subsidiaries.

Taiwan’s current regulations require licenses from regulators before domestic firms can ship products to parties named on the entity list. 

In a statement on its website, Taiwan’s International Trade Administration said that Huawei and SMIC were among the 601 new foreign entities, blacklisted due to their involvement in arms proliferation activities and other national security concerns.

Huawei and SMIC are also on a U.S. trade blacklist and have been impacted by Washington’s sweeping controls on advanced chips. Companies such as contract chipmaker Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co already follow U.S. export restrictions. 

However, the addition of Huawei and SMIC to the Taiwan blacklist is likely aimed at the reinforcement of this policy and a tightening of existing loopholes, Ray Wang, an independent semiconductor and tech analyst, told CNBC. 

He added that the new domestic export controls could also raise the punishment for any potential breaches in the future. 

UBS GWM: Taiwan's security means it needs to remain relevant to the world, including China

TSMC had been embroiled in controversy in October last year when semiconductor research firm TechInsights found a TSMC-made chip in a Huawei AI training card. 

Following the discovery, the U.S. Commerce Department ordered TSMC to halt Chinese clients’ access to chips used for AI services, according to a report from Reuters. TSMC could also reportedly face a $1 billion as penalty to settle a U.S. investigation into the matter.

Huawei has been working to create viable alternatives to Nvidia‘s general processing units used for AI. But, experts say the company’s advancement has been limited by export controls and a lack of scale and capabilities in the domestic chip ecosystem. 

Still, Huawei is believed to have acquired several million GPU dies from TSMC for its AI chips by using previous loopholes before they were discovered, according to Paul Triolo, partner and senior vice president for China at advisory firm DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group. 

A die refers to a small piece of silicon material that serves as the foundation for building processors and contains the intricate circuitry and components necessary to perform computations. 

The Taiwanese government’s crackdown on exports to SMIC and Huawei also comes amid tense geopolitical tensions with Mainland China, which regards the democratically governed island as its own territory to be reunited by force, if necessary.

In April, the U.S. reaffirmed its commitment to support the existing status quo as China conducted large-scale military exercises off the coast of the island.

In statements reported by state media on Sunday, China’s top political adviser Wang Huning echoed Beijing’s position, calling for the promotion of national reunification with Taiwan and for resolute opposition to Taiwan independence. 

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AI is disrupting the advertising business in a big way — industry leaders explain how

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AI is disrupting the advertising business in a big way — industry leaders explain how

An AI assistant on display at Mobile World Congress 2024 in Barcelona.

Angel Garcia | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Artificial intelligence is shaking up the advertising business and “unnerving” investors, one industry leader told CNBC.

“I think this AI disruption … unnerving investors in every industry, and it’s totally disrupting our business,” Mark Read, the outgoing CEO of British advertising group WPP, told CNBC’s Karen Tso on Tuesday.

The advertising market is under threat from emerging generative AI tools that can be used to materialize pieces of content at rapid pace. The past couple of years has seen the rise of a number of AI image generators, including OpenAI’s DALL-E, Google’s Veo and Midjourney.

In his first interview since announcing he would step down as WPP boss, Read said that AI is “going to totally revolutionize our business.”

“AI is going to make all the world’s expertise available to everybody at extremely low cost,” he said at London Tech Week. “The best lawyer, the best psychologist, the best radiologist, the best accountant, and indeed, the best advertising creatives and marketing people often will be an AI, you know, will be driven by AI.”

Read said that 50,000 WPP employees now use WPP Open, the company’s own AI-powered marketing platform.

“That, I think, is my legacy in many ways,” he added.

Outgoing WPP CEO says AI will 'revolutionize' advertising business

Structural pressure on creative parts of the ad business are driving industry consolidation, Read also noted, adding that companies would need to “embrace” the way in which AI would impact everything from creating briefs and media plans to optimizing campaigns.

A report from Forrester released in June last year showed that more than 60% of U.S. ad agencies are already making use of generative AI, with a further 31% saying they’re exploring use cases for the technology.

‘Huge transformation’

Read is not alone in this view. Advertising is undergoing a “huge transformation” due to the disruptive effects of AI, French advertising giant Publicis Groupe’s CEO Maurice Levy told CNBC at the Viva Tech conference in Paris.

He noted that AI image and video generation tools are speeding up content production drastically, while automated messaging systems can now achieve “personalization at scale like never before.”

Read more CNBC tech news

However, the Publicis chief stressed that AI should only be considered a tool that people can use to augment their lives.

“We should not believe that AI is more than a tool,” he added.

And while AI is likely to impact some jobs, Levy ultimately thinks it will create more roles than it destroys.

“Will AI replace me, and will AI kill some jobs? I think that AI, yes, will destroy some jobs,” Levy conceded. However, he added that, “more importantly, AI will transform jobs and will create more jobs. So the net balance will be probably positive.”

This, he says, would be in keeping with the labor impacts of previous technological inventions like the internet and smartphones.

AI is moving from curiosity to action, Publicis' Maurice Levy says

“There will be more autonomous work,” Levy added.

Still, Nicole Denman Greene, analyst at Gartner, warns brands should be wary of causing a negative reaction from consumers who are skeptical of AI’s impact on human creativity.

According to a Gartner survey from September, 82% of consumers said firms using generative AI should prioritize preserving human jobs, even if it means lower profits.

“Pivot from what AI can do to what it should do in advertising,” Greene told CNBC.

“What it should do is help create groundbreaking insights, unique execution to reach diverse and niche audiences, push boundaries on what ‘marketing’ is and deliver more brand differentiated, helpful and relevant personalized experiences, including deliver on the promise of hyper-personalization.”

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