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An ASML icon is being displayed on a circuit board, alongside the flags of the USA and China, in this photo illustration taken in Brussels, Belgium, on January 4, 2024.

Jonathan Raa | Nurphoto | Getty Images

ASML on Tuesday offered the first glimpse into how U.S. restrictions on exports of its advanced chip manufacturing tools to China will impact its sales in the Asian country.

The Netherlands-based chip equipment maker said in its earnings report Tuesday, which was released a day early due to a “technical error,” that it expects net sales for 2025 to come in between 30 billion euros and 35 billion euros ($32.7 billion and $38.1 billion). This is at the lower half of the range ASML had guided previously.

ASML is a critical part of the global chip supply chain. The firm’s extreme ultraviolet lithography machines are used by many of the world’s largest chipmakers — from Nvidia to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing — to produce advanced chips.

While third-quarter net sales at the firm reached 7.5 billion euros — beating expectations — net bookings came in at 2.6 billion euros ($2.83 billion), the company said. That was well below a 5.6 billion euro consensus estimate from LSEG.

ASML shares plunged as much as 16% on Tuesday in response, causing the firm to shed over $50 billion in market capitalization in a single day, according to CNBC calculations using LSEG data.

Beyond the disappointment on bookings — which analysts said was due to weakness in a select number of customers, including Intel and Samsung — AMSL also gave an indication of how geopolitical tensions are putting pressure on its 2025 outlook.

Roger Dassen, ASML’s chief financial officer, said Tuesday that he expects the company’s China business to show a “more normalized percentage in our order book and also in our business.”

UBS analysts said the change in ASML’s 2025 guidance was mainly related to delays with the development of new logic fabrication facilities from Intel and Samsung, adding that the new guidance implies sales to China would fall 25% to 30% in 2025.

How important is China to ASML?

ASML’s China-based customers have been stockpiling the firm’s less advanced machines to get ahead of U.S. export restrictions on the Dutch firm and to continue being able to access its critical technology, which enables them to manufacturer chips for the electronics industry.

ASML has never sold its most advanced extreme ultraviolet lithography, or EUV machines to Chinese customers due to previous restrictions.

Instead, chip firms in the country have opted to order ASML’s deep ultra violet lithography, or DUV machines. DUV machines are ASML’s second-tier lithography systems that are critical to make the circuitry of chips.

Last year ASML sourced 29% of its sales from China. It now expects that contribution from China to drop to around 20% of its total revenue in 2025.

Sales to China grew dramatically in the first three quarters of 2024 as customers scrambled to buy ASML’s DUV machines in bulk head of U.S. and Dutch export restrictions.

In the company’s second-quarter 2024 earnings presentation, ASML said that it sourced as much as 49% of its sales from China.

In September, the Netherlands expanded export restrictions on advanced chip manufacturing equipment by bringing licensing requirements of ASML’s machines under its purview and thereby taking over from the U.S. on controlling what machines ASML is able to export to other countries.

The move meant that the Dutch government would be able to effectively block ASML from maintaining the DUV machines it has sold to China so far.

“China is a very important market for China,” Chris Miller, assistant professor of international history at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and author of the book “Chip War,” told CNBC in emailed comments. “Most of this revenue is from older-generation chipmaking tools.”

Ironically, restrictions on exports of DUV machines to China “have probably helped ASML on net, because China has accelerated purchases of older generation DUV tools as a result,” Miller added.

Now, ASML is expecting a drop-off in sales to China as a result of U.S. trade restrictions. The firm expects China to return to taking up a smaller share of its overall global sales in 2025, CFO Dassen said in a transcript of a video interview Tuesday.

“We do see China trending towards more historically normal percentages in our business,” Dassen said. “So we expect China to come in at around 20% of our total revenue for next year. Which would also be in line with its representation in our backlog.” 

Analysts at Bank of America said the firm faces a “sharp decline in China revenues.” They added that ASML’s forecast of China accounting for around 20% of its revenue in 2025, implies a 48% revenue decline year-over-year — more severe than the 3% they had anticipated.

Abishur Prakash, founder of Toronto-based advisory firm The Geopolitical Business, said that demand from China for ASML’s machines is likely to drop significantly as the firm is “severely restricted by export controls.”

“Like Intel, for whom China is the largest market, ASML is deeply reliant on China,” Prakash told CNBC via email. “For ASML, it is watching what is taking place with China as a potential restriction on business.”

“As the chip world is cut from China, ASML could see demand for its equipment drop — from China and elsewhere,” Prakash added.

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TSMC’s second-quarter profit soars nearly 61%, beating estimates as AI chip demand stays strong

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TSMC's second-quarter profit soars nearly 61%, beating estimates as AI chip demand stays strong

A motorcycle is seen near a building of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which is a Taiwanese multinational semiconductor contract manufacturing and design company, in Hsinchu, Taiwan, on April 16, 2025.

Daniel Ceng | Anadolu | Getty Images

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company on Thursday reported a near 61% year-on-year rise in second-quarter profit, beating estimates, as demand for artificial intelligence chips stays strong. 

Here are TSMC’s first-quarter results versus LSEG SmartEstimates:

  • Revenue: 933.80 billion New Taiwan dollars ($31.7 billion), vs. NT$931.24 billion expected
  • Net income: NT$398.27 billion, vs. NT$377.86 billion 

Second-quarter net profit hit a record high, according to Reuters.

TSMC’s net revenue in the June quarter rose 38.65% from a year ago to NT$933.80 billion, also beating estimates.

Advanced chips, with sizes 7-nanometer or smaller, accounted for 74% of TSMC’s total wafer revenue in the quarter. In semiconductor technology, smaller nanometer sizes signify more compact transistor designs, which lead to greater processing power and efficiency.

TSMC, the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer, has benefited from the megatrend towards AI as it gains from producing advanced processors for clients including Nvidia and Apple.

However, the company faces potential headwinds from the trade policy of the U.S. President Donald Trump, who has threatened steep “reciprocal tariffs” on Taiwan.

Taiwan faces 32% tariffs announced in April and is in the midst of trade talks with the U.S., according to local media reports. Trump earlier this month also warned of potential additional tariffs on semiconductors.

U.S. export controls have also restricted TSMC’s business with China, as well that of its key clients such as Nvidia and AMD. However, amid a thawing of trade relations between Beijing and Washington, Nvidia and AMD said earlier this week that they had received government assurances allowing them to ship products to China. 

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AI-generated music is going viral. Should the music industry be worried?

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AI-generated music is going viral. Should the music industry be worried?

The growing prevalence of AI music has caused a stir across the music industry, according to Keith Mullin, head of management and music industry course leader at the Liverpool Institute for Performing Arts.

Da-kuk | E+ | Getty Images

With more than 1 million monthly listeners on Spotify, psychedelic rock band The Velvet Sundown is raking in thousands of dollars and has the music industry asking itself tough questions 一 and they’re not about whether the ’70s are coming back. 

The “band” was recently confirmed to primarily be the work of generative artificial intelligence 一 something that had been heavily suspected in light of a suspiciously smooth and glossy image of its “band members” and derivative song titles like “Dust on the Wind.”

The Velvet Sundown’s bio on Spotify now clarifies that it is a “synthetic music project guided by human creative direction, and composed, voiced, and visualized with the support of artificial intelligence.” 

It adds, “This isn’t a trick – it’s a mirror. An ongoing artistic provocation designed to challenge the boundaries of authorship, identity, and the future of music itself in the age of AI.”

However, in CNBC’s conversations with various music professionals, descriptors like “soulless,” “stifling,” and “creepy” surfaced, as the industry grapples with the encroachment of AI. 

While AI tools have long been integrated into music software like Logic, newer AI-powered platforms such as Suno and Udio have made it easier than ever to generate entire songs based on nothing more than a few prompts and inputs. 

As a result, “The Velvet Sundown” is far from the only AI-generated artist emerging online. There’s evidence that other upstarts like “dark country” musician Aventhis — with more than 600,000 monthly listeners on Spotify — are also a product of AI-generated voices and instruments. 

Meanwhile, France-headquartered music-streaming service Deezer, which deployed an AI detection tool for music in January, revealed in April that about 18% of all tracks now being uploaded to its platform are fully generated by AI.

AI music tech advances 

The quality and originality of AI music have often been criticized, but experts say that as generative AI becomes more sophisticated, it’s becoming harder and harder for the average listener to distinguish between human and machine.

“[The Velvet Sundown]” is much better music than most of what we’ve heard from AI in the past,” Jason Palamara, an assistant professor of music technology at the Herron School of Art and Design, told CNBC. 

“Early versions could be used to make catchy, repetitive hooks … But we’ve gotten to the point where AI is putting out songs that actually make sense structurally, with verses, choruses and bridges,” Palamara said. 

He said The Velvet Sundown is likely just the “tip of the iceberg” of what’s coming. Suno and Udio — the current “gold standard” of genAI platforms — come with few to no barriers to entry, allowing anyone to create hundreds of AI tracks in one sitting. 

Both AI platforms offer free access, as well as premium subscriptions priced at about $30 or less a month.  

But while creating an AI song can be done for free, that doesn’t mean it can’t generate revenue. The Velvet Sundown has made about $34,235 over a 30-day period across all audio streaming platforms, according to estimations from ChartMasters’ streaming royalties calculator.

Because of that, it’s easy to see why AI creators might want to flood streaming platforms with as much generated music as possible, hoping to go viral. 

‘We can’t predict yet’

The growing prevalence of AI music has caused a stir across the music industry, according to Keith Mullin, head of management and music industry course leader at the Liverpool Institute for Performing Arts. 

“It’s the hot topic of the moment, especially in relation to copyright and digital service providers like Spotify,” said Mullin, who is also the guitarist for Liverpool rock band The Farm. 

Major record labels such as Sony Music, Universal Music Group, and Warner Records have launched lawsuits against Suno and Udio, accusing them of mass copyright infringement. Meanwhile, thousands of musicians and creatives have called for a prohibition on using human art to train artificial intelligence without permission.

Nevertheless, Mullin said generative AI on music is here to stay. “I don’t think we can turn the clock back,” he said, noting that music and its business models are ever changing. 

For a band that doesn’t even really exist to then get all that social media traction, it’s so discouraging.

Tilly Louise

U.K.-based alternative pop artist

Indeed, the music business is no stranger to big technology shifts — events like the introduction of Napster in 1999 and the proliferation of music-streaming platforms in the 2000s shook up the industry, forcing major adaptations. 

Still, the notion of competing with AI bands is causing anxiety for budding musicians like Tilly Louise, a U.K.-based alternative pop artist who said it’s already hard enough for small performers to gain traction and generate income from online music.

Despite accumulating millions of streams on Spotify, Louise, 25, said she’s never made nearly enough money from streaming platforms to live on, and currently works a full-time job. 

“For a band that doesn’t even really exist to then get all that social media traction, it’s so discouraging,” she added. 

To prepare young artists for the changing music environment, music professors said, they’ve increasingly been working AI into their lesson plans, aiming to teach students how to use the technology to enhance their creative process and music production, rather than replace it. 

Some established producers have also leaned into the trend. Last month, Grammy-winning artist and producer Timbaland launched an AI-focused entertainment venture, called Stage Zero, which will feature an AI-generated pop star. 

“Other producers are going to start doing this … and it will create a completely different model of the music industry that we can’t predict yet,” Palamara said. He added, however, that he does think the trend will make earning money as an artist online even harder.

The trend is also expected to continue to receive backlash not only for its impact on artists, but also for what it could mean for music consumers. 

“[M]usic fans should be worried because the proliferation of AI music and content clogs our social media feeds and algorithms, making it difficult for us to connect with one another,” Anthony Fantano, a prominent music critic and internet personality on YouTube, told CNBC in a statement. 

“AI art offers nothing that humans themselves can’t already do better,” he said, adding that it’s a way for “greedy capitalists” to cut out actual artists.

Aside from calling for better copyright protections for artists when it comes to the training of AI, music groups are asking that AI-generated music be labeled as such. Spotify did not respond to an inquiry from CNBC regarding its generative AI detection and labeling policies. 

In a statement to CNBC, Tino Gagliardi, president of the American Federation Of Musicians of the United States and Canada, urged creators, those in the tech industry, lawmakers, and music fans­ to stand together in support of human creativity and authorship.

“Consent, credit, and compensation are prerequisites in AI development. And transparency, including in streaming and other marketplaces, is the foundation for safeguarding musicians’ livelihoods. Anything short of that is theft.”

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Coinbase steps into consumer market with stablecoin-powered ‘everything app’ that goes beyond trading

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Coinbase steps into consumer market with stablecoin-powered 'everything app' that goes beyond trading

Dominika Zarzycka | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Coinbase unveiled Wednesday an “everything app” designed to bring more people into the crypto economy.

The “Base App,” which replaces Coinbase Wallet, will combine wallet, trading and payment functions as well as social media, messaging and support for mini apps – all running on the company’s homegrown public blockchain network Base, which is built on Ethereum.

So-called super apps like WeChat and Alipay – which bundle several different services and functionalities into a single mobile app – have long been viewed as the holy grail of fintech by the industry. They’re central to everyday life in China but haven’t been successfully replicated in the West. Meta Platforms and X have made attempts to realize that vision, integrating payments, messaging and social content, among other things.

For Coinbase, the intent is to expand its reach to a new subset of consumers who aren’t necessarily interested in buying or trading crypto, the company’s core business. Over-reliance on that revenue stream has been a sticking point for the company, and some analysts view the Base blockchain as a way for it to drive utility in crypto beyond speculative trading.

As part of the Base App launch, Coinbase also rolled out two key functions meant to help power it: an identity verification system called Base Account and an express checkout system for payments with the Circle-issued USDC stablecoin, called Base Pay.

Base Pay is a one-click checkout feature for USDC payments across the web, developed with Shopify. At the end of the year, Coinbase plans to bring Base Pay to brick-and-mortar stores with tap-to-pay support. Alex Danco, product manager at Shopify, said at Coinbase’s unveiling event that the function has been turned on for tens of thousands of its merchants this week, and will roll out to every merchant by the end of the year. Shopify will also offer 1% cash back in the U.S. for users who pay with USDC on Base later this year, he said.

Until now, enthusiasm around the Base network has been confined to builders and developers keen to use the technology. In perhaps the highest profile example, JPMorgan said last month that it’s launching a so-called deposit token on the Base blockchain.

Base is often touted for its ability to settle a payment in less than a second for less than a cent, which its fans expect will help the network grow in a way other crypto-based payments efforts haven’t.

Now, Coinbase hopes to tap into an opportunity to settle payments on the Base network that go beyond trading and payments. With the introduction of the everything app, the company is emphasizing the opportunity for a new economic model for content creators in particular – one that might give them more direct and diverse monetization options for their content as well as more control over their identity and data.

Coinbase will fund creator rewards and waive USDC transaction fees within chats in the app as part of the effort to bring more users on chain. It is not expected to generate significant revenue right away.

The new consumer app comes as the crypto industry and Coinbase, in particular, embrace a boom in product launches and rollouts thanks to the pro-crypto policies of the Trump administration and more clearly defined crypto regulations expected from Congress — perhaps as soon as this week. Last month Coinbase launched its first credit card with American Express and Shopify rolled out USDC-powered payments through Coinbase and Stripe.

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has said both have a “stretch goal” to make USDC the number 1 stablecoin in the world, a position currently held by Tether’s USDT, and that he aims to make Coinbase “the number one financial services app in the world” in the next five to 10 years.

Don’t miss these cryptocurrency insights from CNBC Pro:

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