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An ASML icon is being displayed on a circuit board, alongside the flags of the USA and China, in this photo illustration taken in Brussels, Belgium, on January 4, 2024.

Jonathan Raa | Nurphoto | Getty Images

ASML on Tuesday offered the first glimpse into how U.S. restrictions on exports of its advanced chip manufacturing tools to China will impact its sales in the Asian country.

The Netherlands-based chip equipment maker said in its earnings report Tuesday, which was released a day early due to a “technical error,” that it expects net sales for 2025 to come in between 30 billion euros and 35 billion euros ($32.7 billion and $38.1 billion). This is at the lower half of the range ASML had guided previously.

ASML is a critical part of the global chip supply chain. The firm’s extreme ultraviolet lithography machines are used by many of the world’s largest chipmakers — from Nvidia to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing — to produce advanced chips.

While third-quarter net sales at the firm reached 7.5 billion euros — beating expectations — net bookings came in at 2.6 billion euros ($2.83 billion), the company said. That was well below a 5.6 billion euro consensus estimate from LSEG.

ASML shares plunged as much as 16% on Tuesday in response, causing the firm to shed over $50 billion in market capitalization in a single day, according to CNBC calculations using LSEG data.

Beyond the disappointment on bookings — which analysts said was due to weakness in a select number of customers, including Intel and Samsung — AMSL also gave an indication of how geopolitical tensions are putting pressure on its 2025 outlook.

Roger Dassen, ASML’s chief financial officer, said Tuesday that he expects the company’s China business to show a “more normalized percentage in our order book and also in our business.”

UBS analysts said the change in ASML’s 2025 guidance was mainly related to delays with the development of new logic fabrication facilities from Intel and Samsung, adding that the new guidance implies sales to China would fall 25% to 30% in 2025.

How important is China to ASML?

ASML’s China-based customers have been stockpiling the firm’s less advanced machines to get ahead of U.S. export restrictions on the Dutch firm and to continue being able to access its critical technology, which enables them to manufacturer chips for the electronics industry.

ASML has never sold its most advanced extreme ultraviolet lithography, or EUV machines to Chinese customers due to previous restrictions.

Instead, chip firms in the country have opted to order ASML’s deep ultra violet lithography, or DUV machines. DUV machines are ASML’s second-tier lithography systems that are critical to make the circuitry of chips.

Last year ASML sourced 29% of its sales from China. It now expects that contribution from China to drop to around 20% of its total revenue in 2025.

Sales to China grew dramatically in the first three quarters of 2024 as customers scrambled to buy ASML’s DUV machines in bulk head of U.S. and Dutch export restrictions.

In the company’s second-quarter 2024 earnings presentation, ASML said that it sourced as much as 49% of its sales from China.

In September, the Netherlands expanded export restrictions on advanced chip manufacturing equipment by bringing licensing requirements of ASML’s machines under its purview and thereby taking over from the U.S. on controlling what machines ASML is able to export to other countries.

The move meant that the Dutch government would be able to effectively block ASML from maintaining the DUV machines it has sold to China so far.

“China is a very important market for China,” Chris Miller, assistant professor of international history at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and author of the book “Chip War,” told CNBC in emailed comments. “Most of this revenue is from older-generation chipmaking tools.”

Ironically, restrictions on exports of DUV machines to China “have probably helped ASML on net, because China has accelerated purchases of older generation DUV tools as a result,” Miller added.

Now, ASML is expecting a drop-off in sales to China as a result of U.S. trade restrictions. The firm expects China to return to taking up a smaller share of its overall global sales in 2025, CFO Dassen said in a transcript of a video interview Tuesday.

“We do see China trending towards more historically normal percentages in our business,” Dassen said. “So we expect China to come in at around 20% of our total revenue for next year. Which would also be in line with its representation in our backlog.” 

Analysts at Bank of America said the firm faces a “sharp decline in China revenues.” They added that ASML’s forecast of China accounting for around 20% of its revenue in 2025, implies a 48% revenue decline year-over-year — more severe than the 3% they had anticipated.

Abishur Prakash, founder of Toronto-based advisory firm The Geopolitical Business, said that demand from China for ASML’s machines is likely to drop significantly as the firm is “severely restricted by export controls.”

“Like Intel, for whom China is the largest market, ASML is deeply reliant on China,” Prakash told CNBC via email. “For ASML, it is watching what is taking place with China as a potential restriction on business.”

“As the chip world is cut from China, ASML could see demand for its equipment drop — from China and elsewhere,” Prakash added.

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Pain management startup Sword Health expands into mental health, raises $40 million

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Pain management startup Sword Health expands into mental health, raises  million

Sword Health, a startup focused on helping people deal with pain through digital services, is expanding into mental health and has raised additional capital to fuel its growth.

The 10-year-old company is introducing Mind, which uses a combination of artificial intelligence, hardware and human mental health professionals to treat patients with mild depression and anxiety. Sword said Mind will help users access care whenever they need it, rather than during sporadic, hourlong appointments. 

“It’s really a breakthrough in terms of how we address mental health, and this is only possible because we have AI,” Sword CEO Virgílio Bento told CNBC in an interview.

Also on Tuesday, Sword announced a $40 million funding round, led by General Catalyst, in a deal that values the company at $4 billion. The fresh cash will support Sword’s efforts to grow through acquisitions, as well as its global expansion and AI model development, the company said. 

The round included participation from Khosla Ventures, Comcast Ventures and other firms. Sword had raised a total of more than $450 million as of September, according to PitchBook. 

The financing lands as the digital health market shows signs of recovery following a difficult post-Covid stretch, when rising inflation, higher interest rates and a return to in-person activities led to a dramatic retreat in the industry.

Earlier this month, Omada Health, which offers virtual care programs to supports patients with chronic conditions such as diabetes and hypertension, held its Nasdaq debut, though the stock is trading below its initial public offering price. Weeks before that, digital physical therapy provider Hinge Health hit the New York Stock Exchange. The shares are trading a few dollars above their offer price.

Sword, which was founded in Portugal and is now based in New York, offers tools for digital physical therapy, pelvic health and movement health to help patients manage pain from home and avoid other treatments such as opioids and surgery. Patients can sign up for Sword if it’s supported by their employer or their health plan.

Mind users will receive a wrist wearable called the “M-band” that can measure environmental and physiological signals such as heart rate, sleep and the lighting in a user’s environment. Mind also includes access to an AI Care agent and human mental health professionals, who can deliver services such as traditional talk therapy. 

Bento said a human is always involved with a patient’s care, and that AI is not making clinical decisions.

For example, if a patient has an anxiety attack, Sword’s AI will recognize that and could ask a clinician to approve some physical activity for later that day to help with recovery. The clinician would either approve the physical activity that the AI suggested, or override it and propose something else. 

“You have an anxiety issue today, and the way you’re going to manage is to talk about it one week from now? That just doesn’t work,” Bento said. “Mental health should be always on, where you have a problem now, and you can have immediate help in the moment.”

Bento said Sword has some clients that have been on a waiting list for Mind, and the startup has been testing the offering with some of its design partners. He said early users have approved of Mind’s personalized approach and convenience.

“We believe that it is really the future of how mental health is going to be delivered in the future, by us and by other companies,” Bento said. “AI plays a very important role, but the use of AI — and I think this is very important — needs to be used in a very smart way.”

Disclosure: Comcast, the parent of Comcast Ventures, is the owner of NBCUniversal, parent company of CNBC.

WATCH: Billionaire investor Vinod Khosla on Sword Health investment, opportunities in AI and AI competition

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Trump’s $499 smartphone will likely be made in China

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Trump's 9 smartphone will likely be made in China

US President Donald Trump uses a cellphone aboard Marine One before it departs Leesburg Executive Airport in Leesburg, Virginia, on April 24, 2025. Trump is returning to the White House after attending a MAGA, Inc. dinner at the Trump National Golf Club Washington, DC.

Alex Wroblewski | AFP | Getty Images

The Trump Organization’s newly-announced smartphone will likely be made in China, experts say, despite claims that the device will be manufactured in the U.S.

Owned by U.S. President Donald Trump, the company on Monday announced the T1, a gold-colored device which it said would retail for $499. The smartphone will run Google’s Android operating system.

The Trump Organization says the phone will be “built in the United States” — but experts note the phone was likely designed and would be manufactured by a Chinese firm.

“There is no way the phone was designed from scratch and there is no way it is going to be assembled in the U.S. or completely manufactured in the U.S.,” Francisco Jeronimo, vice president at International Data Corporation, told CNBC on Tuesday. “That is completely impossible.”

Jeronimo suggested that the phone would likely be produced by a Chinese original device manufacturer (ODM) — a type of company that designs and manufacturers products based on the specifications of another firm.

“Despite being advertised as an American-made phone, it is likely that this device will be initially produced by a Chinese ODM,” Blake Przesmicki, an analyst at Counterpoint Research said in a note on Monday.

Jeff Fieldhack, research director at Counterpoint Research added that “the U.S. does not have local manufacturing capabilities readily available.”

Smartphone manufacturing came into focus after Trump threatened tariffs on devices imported into the U.S. While those have yet to materialize, the American president has poured scrutiny on Apple‘s supply chain, urging the iPhone maker to manufacture its flagship handset in the U.S. The call is part of a broader desire from Trump to see more manufacturing of electronics be undertaken in the U.S.

Several experts have noted that manufacturing iPhones in the U.S. would be nearly impossible and would certainly raise the price of the product substantially. On top of that, getting large-scale manufacturing off the ground in the U.S. would take several years.

Phone will need foreign components

Even if some manufacturing of the device were done in the U.S., smartphone supply chains are global, and handset components come from several countries.

The Trump Organization’s T1 is no different. While no information has been revealed on particular components, the specifications could give a hint of what to expect.

The device will have a 6.8-inch AMOLED display, a kind of screen that is made primarily by South Korean firm Samsung. LG, another South Korean firm, also produces the screen, as does Chinese firm BOE.

For comparison, Apple’s top end iPhone 16 Pro Max, has a 6.9-inch display and starts at $1,199.

At T1’s $499 price point, the smartphone will likely use a processor from Taiwanese firm MediaTek, which would be manufactured in Taiwan. If the device were to contain a Qualcomm chip instead, that would also likely have to be made in Taiwan.

The phone’s advertised 50-megapixel camera will meanwhile require image sensing chips — a market that is dominated by Japanese firm Sony for smartphones. There are smaller players in China and elsewhere.

The device’s memory is one area that could use American technology, potentially from Micron, which manufactures its components in the U.S. But other players, like South Korea’s Samsung, could be potential suppliers.

“Even when there is local manufacturing available the company will have to rely on components that are being imported from outside the US,” Counterpoint Research’s Fieldhack said.

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Tencent bets its China WeChat and gaming expertise will help it win cloud business in Europe

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Tencent bets its China WeChat and gaming expertise will help it win cloud business in Europe

Chinese tech company Tencent is a gaming giant and the parent company of WeChat, the ubiquitous social messaging app in China.

Cheng Xin | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Tencent has spent years evolving into a gaming and social media giant in China and in the process, has built up its cloud computing capabilities.

The technology firm is now looking to bring that expertise to Europe as it ramps up expansion of its cloud business overseas, Dowson Tong, CEO of Tencent’s cloud group told CNBC.

“We have strengths and competence in very specific technology areas, as well as industry verticals,” Tong said in an interview last week. “These are are very unique technology capabilities that have been developed over many years [and] started from our products in China.”

“So we intend to bring a lot of this technology expertise to Europe. We’re talking to a lot of interested potential customers.”

Tencent’s European push will pitch it against U.S. hyperscalers Amazon, Microsoft and Alphabet-owned Google, which collectively make up 70% share of Europe’s cloud market.

But the Chinese firm is hoping to focus on specific areas where it has built up capabilities to differentiate from rivals.

Tong said these include cloud technologies for areas like optimizing video streaming, ensuring a smooth gaming experience, and developing and hosting so-called “super apps” like WeChat — China’s biggest messaging service. WeChat is often seen as the pioneer of super apps, a term that refers to an application with multiple functions, such as messaging and payments.

Tong gave an example of Tencent’s cloud computing work with French telecommunications firm Orange in supporting the company’s Max it app in Africa. In the area of gaming, Tencent’s cloud technology can improve “latency,” which is a technical term for the lag between a player’s actions and what happens on screen, Tong said.

The Chinese company is also betting on European companies opting for multiple cloud providers for services, instead of relying on one or two of the big players.

“I would say that’s actually a … deliberate strategy of ours to make the customers feel more comfortable using our technology, especially in a multi-cloud environment,” he said, adding that customers want to be able to interoperate.

AI push

Cloud computing companies have put an increased focus on selling artificial intelligence tools as a way to boost revenue and differentiate their offerings from rivals.

Tencent has built up its own artificial intelligence foundational model in China called Hunyuan. But it also uses some models created by Chinese firm DeepSeek in its products.

Tong said Tencent would take a similar approach in Europe when it comes to AI, potentially offering products built on European models.

“Our focus would be providing tools that would work with different foundation models and ultimately, it’s the customer’s decision which model works best for them,” Tong told CNBC.

“So I think at the end of the day, we would always go to our customers, find the problems they wanted addressed, provide them tools so that they can accomplish what they need, and realise the cost efficiency that we can offer.”

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