Chancellor Rachel Reeves looking to ‘find £40bn’ in budget

Published

1 year ago

October 16, 2024

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Rachel Reeves is looking to fill a £40bn black hole in the country’s finances, Sky News understands.

According to people close to the budget, the gap in funding identified by the chancellor is more than twice what was previously thought.

Politics latest: Stark warning issued over national insurance rise

Ms Reeves has previously said the Conservatives left the new government with a £22bn shortfall, requiring “tough decisions” like axing the winter fuel payment.

This has led to speculation Labour may introduce measures such as a national insurance increase for employers to raise more cash.

The Treasury does not comment on budget speculation.

According to the Financial Times, the £40bn figure represents the funding the chancellor needs to protect key government departments from real terms spending cuts, cover the impact of the £22bn overspend from the last administration and build up a fiscal buffer for the rest of parliament.

The paper said she was eyeing big tax rises to patch up the NHS in particular.

However, the government has left itself with little wiggle room after ruling out a rise in national insurance, income tax and VAT in its manifesto.

Ministers have since said that this meant not “increasing tax on working people” – leaving the door open for the employer element of national insurance to go up.

Budget talk all spin – and we should be used to it

Jon Craig

Chief political correspondent

@joncraig

The “black hole” just got deeper. Or so the chancellor claims.

After telling us for weeks that the funding gap was £22bn, Rachel Reeves says it’s almost double that: £40bn. Fact? Or political propaganda?

She’s told the cabinet the £22bn “black hole inheritance” from the Tories needed to be filled “just to keep public services standing still”.

And Sir Keir Starmer told ministers – at a “political cabinet” with no civil servants present – that the budget would see “tough decisions so we can invest in the future”.

In other words, if the chancellor is to avoid big spending cuts in front line services like health and education, there’ll have to be more unpopular tax rises.

The timing of this apparent deepening of the “black hole” is highly significant. It comes as Labour faces accusations of breaking its manifesto pledge not to increase national insurance.

The new £40bn figure has emerged just hours before Sir Keir faces Rishi Sunak at prime minister’s questions and a potentially embarrassing onslaught over the national insurance tax hike.

A conspiracy theorist might even suggest the new £40bn claim was a cynical attempt by Downing Street to divert attention from the row over the PM meeting Taylor Swift and the star’s blue-light escort.

Shadow chancellor Jeremy Hunt has already claimed the £22bn figure is a lie. But then George Osborne accused Labour of leaving a £12bn black hole when he became chancellor in 2010.

It’s all spin, of course. We should be used to it by now. Reeves also told the cabinet the government can’t turn around 14 years of decline in one year or one budget.

Yet at the same time she said the budget would “protect working people, fix the NHS and rebuild Britain”. That’s an ambitious boast, if the “black hole” really is £40bn.

A one percentage point increase in the Class 1 rate could raise £8.45bn over the 2025 to 2026 tax year, and a two percentage point hike could raise £16.9bn, according to data compiled by HMRC and EY.

Meanwhile, introducing national insurance on employer pension contributions could raise around £17bn per year if taxed at the same 13.8% rate, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).

Experts have cautioned that any increase in employer national insurance would mean higher costs for businesses, which could impact their staff and customers.

Paul Johnson, director of the IFS, told Sky News on Tuesday night that the tax rise could lead to less pay rises and fewer jobs.

The influential thinktank estimates Ms Reeves may need to raise up to £25bn from tax increases if she wants to keep spending rising with national income, and honour Labour’s pledge not to return Britain to austerity.

As well as tax rises, there is also speculation Ms Reeves could change her fiscal rules to enable more borrowing.

It is thought the chancellor could change how debt is calculated, which could in turn alter how much debt the UK officially has and give Ms Reeves room to borrow more.

Politics

Budget 2025: Consumer confidence falls as speculation ramps up – but London mayor welcomes major rail investment

Published

6 hours ago

November 20, 2025

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Budget 2025: Consumer confidence falls as speculation ramps up - but London mayor welcomes major rail investment

Consumer confidence has tumbled amid rampant speculation about what the chancellor will announce in the budget, figures show.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) blamed “strong hints” from the government of income tax hikes for the public’s falling expectations of how much they’ll spend over the next three months – even as Christmas beckons.

While a planned increase in income tax rates was scrapped last week, Sir Keir Starmer has refused to rule out freezing income tax thresholds – which the Conservatives argue amounts to a tax rise by stealth because it drags people into paying higher rates even if their wages increase.

BRC chief executive Helen Dickinson said months of uncertainty had “heightened public concern about their own finances and the wider economy”.

Consumer expectations for the state of the economy over the next three months have fallen significantly to minus 44, down from minus 35 in October, according to data from the BRC and Opinium.

Ms Dickinson said action was needed from Rachel Reeves to “bring down the spiralling cost burden facing retailers”, which she said would “keep price rises in check”.

Signs of ‘fragile’ recovery in jobs market

In slightly more encouraging news for Ms Reeves ahead of her statement next Wednesday, new research suggests the jobs market may be on the up.

The Recruitment and Employment Confederation said the number of new job adverts last month was 754,359, up by 2.1% from September, taking the total to more than 1.6 million.

Ms Reeves’s decision to hike national insurance contributions for employers in last year’s budget was blamed for a slowdown in the market, and a rising unemployment rate.

The report said there has been an increase in adverts for medical radiographers, delivery drivers and couriers, and further education teaching professionals.

But it warned the apparent recovery was “fragile”.

Reeves set to back DLR extension

One man looking forward to the budget is Sir Sadiq Khan, who has welcomed reports that London’s DLR is set to be given funding for an extension.

According to the Press Association, the chancellor will back an extension to the Docklands Light Railway to Thamesmead at a cost of £1.7bn – unlocking thousands of new homes.

Thamesmead has been notoriously short of public transport links ever since it was developed in the 1960s.

The plan would see the line extended from Gallions Reach, near London City Airport, and include a new station at Beckton as well as in Thamesmead itself.

Sir Sadiq said the DLR extension “will not only transform travel in a historically under-served part of the capital but also unlock thousands of new jobs and homes, boosting the economy not just locally but nationally”.

It is also expected to unlock land for 25,000 new homes and up to 10,000 new jobs, along with almost £18bn of private investment in the area.

Politics

Prospective CFTC chair addresses DeFi regulation at nomination hearing

Published

12 hours ago

November 19, 2025

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Prospective CFTC chair addresses DeFi regulation at nomination hearing

Michael Selig, who serves as chief counsel for the crypto task force at the US Securities and Exchange Commission, faced questions from lawmakers on the Senate Agriculture Committee for his nomination to be the next chair of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

On Wednesday, Selig appeared before the committee and addressed questions and concerns from lawmakers on both sides of the aisle regarding his potential conflicts of interest, policy views and experience as the next CFTC chair, succeeding Caroline Pham.

Government, Senate, SEC, CFTC, United States — *Michael Selig addressing lawmakers on Wednesday’s confirmation hearing. Source:* *US Senate Agriculture Committee*

In his opening statement, Selig said he had advised a wide range of market participants, including digital asset companies, and warned against the agency taking a regulation-by-enforcement approach, stating that it would drive companies offshore.

“We’re at a unique moment in the history of our financial markets,” said Selig. “A wide range of new technologies, products, and platforms are emerging […] the digital asset economy alone has grown from a mere curiosity to a nearly $4 trillion market.”

The confirmation of Selig, whom US President Donald Trump nominated to chair the CFTC following the removal of his first pick, Brian Quintenz, is expected to head for a vote soon. According to the Senate calendar, the Agriculture Committee is scheduled to discuss his nomination on Thursday.

Addressing DeFi, crypto enforcement, roles of agency

The prospective CFTC chair responded to questions from the committee chair, Senator John Boozman, who advocated for the agency to take a leading role in regulating spot digital commodity markets. The senator’s remarks came as the committee is expected to consider a market structure bill that would give the CFTC more authority to regulate crypto.

“The CFTC, and only the CFTC, should regulate the trading of digital commodities,” said Boozman.

The Arkansas senator questioned Selig about his potential approach to decentralized finance if he were to be confirmed, an issue that reportedly divided many lawmakers on the market structure bill.

“When we’re thinking about DeFi, it’s something of a buzzword, but really we should be looking to onchain markets and onchain applications and thinking about the features of these applications as well as where there’s an actual intermediary involved […]” said Selig.

He added that it was “vitally important that we have a cop on the beat” in response to a question on regulating crypto, specifically spot digital asset commodity markets.