Chancellor Rachel Reeves looking to ‘find £40bn’ in budget

Published

6 months ago

October 16, 2024

admin

Rachel Reeves is looking to fill a £40bn black hole in the country’s finances, Sky News understands.

According to people close to the budget, the gap in funding identified by the chancellor is more than twice what was previously thought.

Politics latest: Stark warning issued over national insurance rise

Ms Reeves has previously said the Conservatives left the new government with a £22bn shortfall, requiring “tough decisions” like axing the winter fuel payment.

This has led to speculation Labour may introduce measures such as a national insurance increase for employers to raise more cash.

The Treasury does not comment on budget speculation.

According to the Financial Times, the £40bn figure represents the funding the chancellor needs to protect key government departments from real terms spending cuts, cover the impact of the £22bn overspend from the last administration and build up a fiscal buffer for the rest of parliament.

The paper said she was eyeing big tax rises to patch up the NHS in particular.

However, the government has left itself with little wiggle room after ruling out a rise in national insurance, income tax and VAT in its manifesto.

Ministers have since said that this meant not “increasing tax on working people” – leaving the door open for the employer element of national insurance to go up.

Budget talk all spin – and we should be used to it

Jon Craig

Chief political correspondent

@joncraig

The “black hole” just got deeper. Or so the chancellor claims.

After telling us for weeks that the funding gap was £22bn, Rachel Reeves says it’s almost double that: £40bn. Fact? Or political propaganda?

She’s told the cabinet the £22bn “black hole inheritance” from the Tories needed to be filled “just to keep public services standing still”.

And Sir Keir Starmer told ministers – at a “political cabinet” with no civil servants present – that the budget would see “tough decisions so we can invest in the future”.

In other words, if the chancellor is to avoid big spending cuts in front line services like health and education, there’ll have to be more unpopular tax rises.

The timing of this apparent deepening of the “black hole” is highly significant. It comes as Labour faces accusations of breaking its manifesto pledge not to increase national insurance.

The new £40bn figure has emerged just hours before Sir Keir faces Rishi Sunak at prime minister’s questions and a potentially embarrassing onslaught over the national insurance tax hike.

A conspiracy theorist might even suggest the new £40bn claim was a cynical attempt by Downing Street to divert attention from the row over the PM meeting Taylor Swift and the star’s blue-light escort.

Shadow chancellor Jeremy Hunt has already claimed the £22bn figure is a lie. But then George Osborne accused Labour of leaving a £12bn black hole when he became chancellor in 2010.

It’s all spin, of course. We should be used to it by now. Reeves also told the cabinet the government can’t turn around 14 years of decline in one year or one budget.

Yet at the same time she said the budget would “protect working people, fix the NHS and rebuild Britain”. That’s an ambitious boast, if the “black hole” really is £40bn.

A one percentage point increase in the Class 1 rate could raise £8.45bn over the 2025 to 2026 tax year, and a two percentage point hike could raise £16.9bn, according to data compiled by HMRC and EY.

Meanwhile, introducing national insurance on employer pension contributions could raise around £17bn per year if taxed at the same 13.8% rate, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).

Experts have cautioned that any increase in employer national insurance would mean higher costs for businesses, which could impact their staff and customers.

Paul Johnson, director of the IFS, told Sky News on Tuesday night that the tax rise could lead to less pay rises and fewer jobs.

The influential thinktank estimates Ms Reeves may need to raise up to £25bn from tax increases if she wants to keep spending rising with national income, and honour Labour’s pledge not to return Britain to austerity.

As well as tax rises, there is also speculation Ms Reeves could change her fiscal rules to enable more borrowing.

It is thought the chancellor could change how debt is calculated, which could in turn alter how much debt the UK officially has and give Ms Reeves room to borrow more.

Politics

US Senator calls for Trump impeachment, cites memecoin dinner

Published

4 hours ago

April 26, 2025

admin

US Senator calls for Trump impeachment, cites memecoin dinner

United States Senator Jon Ossoff expressed support for impeaching President Donald Trump during an April 25 town hall, citing the President’s plan to host a private dinner for top Official Trump memecoin holders.

“I mean, I saw just 48 hours ago, he is granting audiences to people who buy his meme coin,” said Ossoff, a Democrat, according to a report by NBC News.

“When the sitting president of the United States is selling access for what are effectively payments directly to him. There is no question that that rises to the level of an impeachable offense.”

Senator Ossoff said he “strongly” supports impeachment proceedings during a town hall in the state of Georgia, where he is running for reelection to the Senate.

The Senator added that an impeachment is unlikely unless the Democratic Party gains control of Congress during the US midterm elections in 2026. Trump’s own Republican Party currently has a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.

Conflicts of interest

On April 23, the Official Trump (TRUMP) memecoin’s website announced plans for Trump to host an exclusive dinner at his Washington, DC golf club with the top 220 TRUMP holders.

The website subsequently posted a leaderboard tracking top TRUMP wallets and a link to register for the event. The TRUMP token’s price has gained more than 50% since the announcement, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

The specific guest list is unclear, but the memecoin’s website states that applicants must pass a background check, “can not be from a [Know Your Customer] watchlist country,” and cannot bring any additional guests.

On April 25, the team behind TRUMP denied social media rumors that TRUMP holders need at least $300,000 to participate in an upcoming dinner with the president.

“People have been incorrectly quoting #220 on the block explorer as the cutoff. That’s wrong because it includes things like locked tokens, exchanges, market makers, and those who are not participating. Instead, you should only be going off the leaderboard,” they wrote.

Law, Politics, Senate, Donald Trump, trumpcoin, Memecoin — *The TRUMP token jumped on news of the private dinner plans. Source:* *CoinMarketCap*

Legal experts told Cointelegraph that Trump’s cryptocurrency ventures, including the TRUMP memecoin and Trump-affiliated decentralized finance (DeFi) protocol World Liberty Financial, raise significant concerns about potential conflicts of interest.

“Within just a couple of days of him taking office, he’s signed a number of executive orders that are significantly going to affect the way that our crypto and digital assets industry works,” Charlyn Ho of law firm Rikka told Cointelegraph in February.

“So if he has a personal pecuniary benefit arising from his own policies, that’s a conflict of interest.”

Magazine: Trump’s crypto ventures raise conflict of interest, insider trading questions

Politics

Crypto sentiment recovers, but weekend liquidity risks remain

Published

6 hours ago

April 26, 2025

admin

Crypto sentiment recovers, but weekend liquidity risks remain

Crypto investor sentiment has seen a significant recovery from global tariff concerns, but analysts warn that the market’s structural weaknesses may still result in downside momentum during periods of weekend illiquidity.

Risk appetite appeared to return among crypto investors this week after US President Donald Trump adopted a softer tone, saying that import tariffs on Chinese goods may “come down substantially.”

However, the improved investor sentiment “does not guarantee that Bitcoin will avoid volatility over the weekend,” analysts from Bitfinex exchange told Cointelegraph:

“Sentiment improvements reduce fragility, but they do not eliminate structural risks like thin weekend liquidity.”

“Historically, weekends remain vulnerable to sharp moves — especially when open interest is high and market depth is low,” the analysts said, adding that unexpected macroeconomic news can still increase volatility during low liquidity periods.

Bitcoin (BTC) staged a near 11% recovery during the past week, but its rally has previously been limited by Sunday liquidity dynamics.

Bitcoin fell below $75,000 on Sunday, April 6, despite initially decoupling from the US stock market’s $3.5 trillion drop on April 4 after US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that Trump’s tariffs may affect the economy and raise inflation.

The correction was exacerbated by the lack of weekend liquidity and the fact that Bitcoin was the only large liquid asset available for de-risking, industry watchers told Cointelegraph.

“While improved sentiment creates a more stable foundation, cryptocurrency markets are still susceptible to rapid movements during periods of reduced trading volume,” according to Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder and chief operating officer of RedStone blockchain oracle firm.

“The sentiment recovery provides some cushioning, but traders should remain cautious as weekend liquidity constraints can still amplify price movements regardless of the current market mood,” he told Cointelegraph.

Crypto investors may have “maxed out on tariff-related fears”

Cryptocurrency markets may have priced in the full extent of tariff-related concerns, according to Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen.

“It feels like we’ve maxed out on tariff-related fear,” she told Cointelegraph, adding:

“While many remain uncertain about where things are headed over the next month or so, it also seems like markets were just waiting for the slightest signal that we’re back in the game.”

“Whether the rally is sustainable depends on whether we can break through previous resistance levels, at least in isolation. It could have legs, as markets now seem to believe there’s a ‘Trump put’ under equities, the US dollar and US Treasurys,” Barthere added, warning of more potential volatility amid the upcoming negotiations.

Nansen previously predicted a 70% chance that crypto markets will bottom and start a recovery by June, but highlighted that the timing will depend on the outcome of tariff negotiations.

The tariff negotiations may only be “posturing” for the US to reach a trade agreement with China, which may be the “big prize” for Trump’s administration, according to Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor.

Magazine: Bitcoin’s odds of June highs, SOL’s $485M outflows, and more: Hodler’s Digest, March 2 – 8

Politics

Deloitte predicts $4T tokenized real estate on blockchain by 2035

Published

10 hours ago

April 26, 2025

admin

Deloitte predicts T tokenized real estate on blockchain by 2035

Over $4 trillion worth of real estate could be tokenized on blockchain networks during the next decade, potentially offering investors greater access to property ownership opportunities, according to a new report.

The Deloitte Center for Financial Services predicts that over $4 trillion worth of real estate may be tokenized by 2035, up from less than $300 billion in 2024. The report, published April 24, estimates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 27%.

The $4 trillion of tokenized property is predicted to stem from the benefits of blockchain-based assets, as well as a structural shift across real estate and property ownership.

Deloitte predicts $4T tokenized real estate on blockchain by 2035 — *Global tokenized real estate value, growth predictions. Source: Deloitte*

“Real estate itself is undergoing transformation. Post-pandemic work-from-home trends, climate risk, and digitization have reshaped property fundamentals,” according to Chris Yin, co-founder of Plume Network, a blockchain built for real-world assets (RWAs).

“Office buildings are being repurposed into AI data centers, logistics hubs and energy-efficient residential communities,” Yin told Cointelegraph.

“Investors want targeted access to these modern use cases, and tokenization enables programmable, customizable exposure to such evolving asset profiles,” he said.

The uncertainty triggered by US President Donald Trump’s import tariffs has boosted investor interest in the RWA tokenization sector, which involves minting financial products and tangible assets on a blockchain.

Both stablecoins and RWAs have attracted significant capital as safe-haven assets amid the global trade concerns, Juan Pellicer, senior research analyst at IntoTheBlock, told Cointelegraph.

The tariff concerns also led tokenized gold volume to surpass $1 billion in trading volume on April 10, its highest level since March 2023 when a US banking crisis saw the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and the voluntary liquidation of Silvergate Bank

Blockchain innovation could drive regulatory clarity

Growing RWA adoption may inspire a more welcoming stance from global regulators, Yin said.

“While regulation is a hurdle, regulation follows usage,” he explained, likening tokenization to Uber’s growth before widespread regulatory acceptance:

“Tokenization is similar — as demand increases, regulatory clarity will follow.”

He added that making tokenized products compliant with a wide range of international regulations is key to unlocking broader market access.

However, some industry watchers are skeptical about the benefits introduced by tokenized real estate.

“I don’t think tokenization should have its eyes directly set on real estate,” said Securitize chief operating officer Michael Sonnenshein at Paris Blockchain Week 2025.

“I’m sure there are all kinds of efficiencies that can be unlocked using blockchain technology to eliminate middlemen, escrow, and all kinds of things in real estate. But I think today, what the onchain economy is demanding are more liquid assets,” he added.