Barack Obama’s message to “the brothers” late last week was blunt.

“I’m here to speak some truths, if you don’t mind,” the former president told a group of black voters.

“My understanding based on reports I’m getting from campaigns and communities is that we have not yet seen the same kind of energy and turnout in all quarters as we saw when I was running. Now, I also want to say that that seems to be more pronounced with the brothers.”

US election latest: Harris makes admission about election race

It was a direct message to focus minds. It reflected increasing angst within the Democratic Party about the “black vote”.

It also hinted at an arrogance – to assume people would vote for Kamala Harris just because she is black.

Mr Obama’s anxiety was an echo of new polling which suggests Ms Harris is drawing the black male vote by a much smaller margin than he did back in 2012. In fact, every election since Mr Obama’s first win has seen a shrinking black Democratic vote.

Drill down on the latest data, and it’s alarming reading for the Harris campaign.

It is clear black men, particularly young men, are increasingly turning to Donald Trump.

It’s by no means a majority of the demographic – most still vote Democrat – but in an election where the margins are so tight, even a moderate shift in voter behaviour in key swing states could make all the difference.

So what’s the draw to Mr Trump? Why is a man whose rhetoric can be racist and whose dog whistles are so often to the out-and-out bigots now apparently attractive to a growing number of America’s black community?

I think three words help to provide the answer – economics, disappointment, and change.

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The pastor who believes Trump is the answer for America

In the northwestern suburbs of Detroit, Michigan, this week I met Lorenzo Sewell.

In July, I’d watched from among the crowd as the 43-year-old pastor addressed the Republican Party Convention in Milwaukee.

With church-gospel oratory, he’d told the crowd back then that Mr Trump was the answer for America.

Now, in his downtrodden community, he was giving me the tour which he said explains the shifting politics.

“This street tells the biggest story…” the pastor told me.

We walked down Grand River Avenue. And there wasn’t much grand about it, at least not along this part. North of gentrified downtown is uptown – forgotten.

“What you’ll see down Grand River is… I mean it’s so bad, it’s completely desolate. All black people. And then as soon as you get downtown, the racial dynamics change,” Mr Sewell said.

Pastor praised Trump for visiting ‘the hood’

The downtown area of Michigan’s largest city has seen massive regeneration over the past decade. It looks great but is unaffordable now for most who once lived here. And beyond downtown, many suburbs are crumbling and struggling.

“President Trump says Detroit needs help,” the pastor said. “This is it.”

Inside his church, Mr Sewell showed me the spot where he prayed with Mr Trump.

The former president paid a visit to the community back in June. In a video of the moment, which quickly went viral, the pastor praised Mr Trump for visiting “the hood”.

“President Trump, I am so humbled that you would be here,” he said back then in a crowded church. “President Obama never came to the hood so to speak… President Biden never came to the hood. So thank you.”

‘Life was better under President Trump’

Whether Mr Trump’s visit was opportunistic or sincere, it was unquestionably savvy and exposed the Democrats in a city they’ve run for decades. It sucked in the pastor. And the church was packed.

“He’s not a politician. I understand he may not be as polished as we want him to be, but just life was better under President Trump. Everybody knows it,” he said.

“Yeah, he has flaws, but to any black person out there who would say ‘Trump’s a racist, Trump’s a mean person’, I met him personally. I shook hands with him. I spent time with him.”

‘We need change’

“Trump opens doors for us. The Democrats haven’t,” he added, scathing of Mr Obama’s “brothers” comments.

“It’s almost like they want to seduce us with Obama. Do they think we don’t have political prowess? We may be poor and black, but that doesn’t mean we’re stupid,” he told me.

I suggested maybe he’s been hoodwinked by Mr Trump, who hardly oozes Christian values, whose rhetoric is so often laced with racism, and who has woefully underdelivered on policy pledges before.

“The reality is he is a businessman, and you build a relationship with him,” he replied. “I know in this community people are hurting. We have been under democratic rule for six decades. We need change. I know that under Trump, gas was cheaper. My bills were cheaper.”

‘Do they want to vote for the vice president or stay home?’

Further down Grand River Avenue, as uptown becomes downtown, the gentrification begins to shine through. In the shadows of the glitzy office buildings, I joined a gathering of Democratic Party faithful.

“Black Men For Harris” is the tag. The evening event, at a local sports bar, was billed as a show of support for Ms Harris.

“I think most black men in America are determining not, do they want to vote for Kamala or Trump? It’s do they want to vote for the vice president or stay home?” voter Jeff Johnson told me.

Among the small crowd, former state senator Marshall Bullock said: “It’s imperative that we win Michigan at all costs. And there’s really only one choice: Vice President Harris is the candidate of decency, integrity, and for the people.”

The problem is Ms Harris may be all of those things, but many people are voting on the economy, on lower taxes and with an eye on their back pocket. They may like the values of decency and integrity, but maybe they’re not going to pay for them.

“Life was cheaper, better under Trump.” That’s the echo I hear across swathes of America. A misguided nostalgia? Maybe. A concern for Ms Harris? For sure.

Let’s talk about the big poll numbers and why – right now at least – they’re sort of useless. But also sort of useful.

The Sky News poll tracker (always useful, whatever the current state of the race) is still showing a consistent lead for Harris. But because it’s well within the margin of error, it doesn’t tell us anything about who’s likely to win the election.

What if we slice it differently and look at the swing states themselves? This is the latest polling.

Same problem here. Nevada has a healthy lead for Harris – perhaps beyond the margin of error. But the other six states are again within the margin of error so they could go either way. Especially North Carolina, which is a dead heat right now.

And, because of the way the electoral college works, there’s a scenario where everything actually hinges on North Carolina – a state that doesn’t even show a lead for either candidate. It feels like we are flying blind.

But there’s another way of slicing things, with demographics. This is a bit different to the way we look at demographics in the UK – they’re the main point of interest in the exit polling, which doesn’t publish a predicted overall winner like in a general election.

And there’s good news for both candidates here, when you combine the different demographics with the swing states.

The demographic divides that favour Harris

One of the most significant dividing lines in American politics is race. Fewer than one in eight black voters backed Trump in 2020, compared with 87% who voted for Biden.

That split could be particularly important in the two battlegrounds in the south, Georgia and North Carolina, which have significantly higher black populations than the US average.

Hispanic and Latin American voters also tend to vote Democrat, although not quite as enthusiastically as black voters. They backed Biden over Trump by more than two to one in 2020, 65% to 32%.

These voters will be particularly important in Arizona and Nevada, close to the Mexican border.

Harris’s standing in the polls among these groups is better than Biden’s was before he dropped out, but it may still not reach the same levels as her Democrat predecessors (including Biden) in recent past elections.

But a big percentage is only helpful if it’s out of a big number. The key for Harris will be persuading these voters to actually come out and cast their ballots.

Obama did this really well. Hillary Clinton didn’t. Biden did a bit better than her. Harris now has less than three weeks to build the enthusiasm behind her campaign.

The ones that favour Trump

One group that does tend to back Trump is rural voters. And the battleground states in general have more rural voters than the US average.

Trump will likely still win among this group, but some polls show Harris performing better than Biden was.

Pennsylvania might be best known for its big cities of industry, but it’s also powered by agriculture – only Texas and North Carolina are home to a higher overall number of rural voters.

You can easily spot the urban areas on this map of the 2020 results – Philadelphia in the far southwest, Pittsburgh in the east.

Winning in these crucial battleground states is never about winning across the entire state. It’s all about maximising your wins in the areas you’re likely to do best, while limiting your losses in the places your opponent is likely to win. No vote is worth any more than any other.

Back to the big poll number, then, and why it is sort of useful too.

If Harris adds to her national polling, that counts among black voters and women (two overlapping categories) within the rural voters within those swing states – which could be bad for Trump.

The rising tide of Harris’s national polling raises the demographics that are very important in those seven swing states.

The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

Ozzy Osbourne’s former guitarist has been shot multiple times as he walked his dog in Las Vegas.

Jake E Lee, who helped write the 1983 album Bark At The Moon, is conscious and “is expected to fully recover”.

Tim Heyne, manager for Lee’s rock band Red Dragon Cartel, told The Associated Press: “By the grace of God, no major organs were hit, he’s fully responsive, and expected to make a full recovery.”

A spokesperson for the musician said: “As the incident is under police investigation, no further comments will be forthcoming.”

Las Vegas police said the shooting happened at around 2.40am on Tuesday – in a neighbourhood around 10 miles from the Strip.

No arrests have been made, and the police department said its investigation was ongoing.

Lee, 67, played guitar in several bands in the glam metal scene of Los Angeles’ Sunset Strip in the 1980s, including an early version of Ratt.

He played for Ozzy Osbourne’s band from 1982 to 1987 and was later involved with Badlands.