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Hiking employer national insurance (NI) “doesn’t look consistent” with Labour’s manifesto and could lead to job losses in the long term, the head of an influential thinktank said.

Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), told Sky News’ Politics Hub With Sophy Ridge that employer NI ultimately “comes from the pay of the employee” and increasing it could result in “less pay rises” and “possibly fewer jobs”.

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Sir Keir Starmer has refused to rule out raising national insurance for employers in the upcoming autumn budget.

Some have suggested this would break a 2024 manifesto pledge which said Labour will not increase national insurance, income tax or VAT.

The prime minister claimed on Tuesday that it was clear this meant not “increasing tax on working people” – leaving the door open for the employer element of NI to go up.

Paul Johnson, director of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, speaks to Ali Fortescue on the Politics Hub
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Paul Johnson of the IFS

But Mr Johnson said: “I think if we got a straightforward increase in the rate of employer national insurance, that certainly doesn’t look consistent with a very clear statement in the Labour manifesto: ‘We will not raise national insurance contributions’.

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“It does not specify employee national insurance contributions.”

Companies pay NI at a rate of 13.8% on all employees’ earnings above £175 per week, but pension contributions made by employers are currently exempt from the levy. This is what experts suggest could be targeted.

Separately, employees and the self-employed pay NI on their earnings, which comes off their payslip.

Ministers have insisted this element will not go up when Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivers her budget later this month, in which she will lay out measures to fill a £22bn “black hole” in the nation’s finances.

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However, Mr Johnson suggested that the impact of any increase to employer NI would ultimately fall on the worker.

“The sort of economic theory tells you that’s what’s likely to happen and the empirical evidence is that that’s what does happen, that if you increase that in the longer term, it results in less in the way of pay rises,” he said.

He added: “In the end, all taxes are paid by people.

“They have to be either paid by the shareholders of the firms that are paying it or the customers or the employees.

“Most of the theory and the evidence suggests that most of the increase will be felt by employees in lower wages, probably, but possibly in the longer term, fewer jobs than there otherwise would have been. I mean, this is very, very similar in the long term to an increase in employee national insurance contributions.”

‘Jobs tax bad for the economy’

Mr Johnson’s view was shared by Craig Beaumont, the executive director of the Federation of Small Business.

He called employer NI a “jobs tax” and said if anything it should be reduced rather than raised.

“If you increase it you would see fewer jobs,” he told Sky News.

“The small business looking at that will go well, what do I do now?

“Do I cut costs? Do I increase my prices? Do I reduce jobs? Reduce hours? Do I look at the pension contributions? Every single option from that is a bad one for the economy.”

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Congress repealed the IRS broker rule, but can it regulate DeFi?

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Congress repealed the IRS broker rule, but can it regulate DeFi?

Congress repealed the IRS broker rule, but can it regulate DeFi?

The decentralized finance (DeFi) industry is breathing a sigh of relief as Congress relaxes reporting obligations, but questions remain about how lawmakers will regulate DeFi.

On March 12, the House of Representatives voted to nullify a rule that required DeFi protocols to report gross proceeds from crypto sales, as well as info on taxpayers involved, to the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). 

The rule, which the IRS issued in December 2024 and wasn’t set to take effect until 2027, was regarded by major industry lobby groups as burdensome and beyond the agency’s authority. 

The White House has already signaled its support for the bill. President Donald Trump is ready to sign when it reaches his desk. But DeFi observers note that the industry has yet to strike a balance between privacy and regulation. 

Congress repealed the IRS broker rule, but can it regulate DeFi?

Bipartisan vote on repealing the rule. Source: DeFi Education Fund

Privacy concerns over IRS DeFi rule

The crypto industry was quick to laud the vote in the House. Marta Belcher, president of the Filecoin Foundation, said that blocking the rule was particularly important for user privacy. 

She told Cointelegraph it is “critical to protect people’s ability to transact directly with each other via open-source code (like smart contracts and decentralized exchanges) while remaining anonymous, in the same way that people can transact directly with each other using cash.”

Privacy concerns were central to the crypto industry’s objections to the rule, with industry observers claiming that it was not fit for purpose and infringed on user privacy. 

Bill Hughes, senior counsel and director of global regulatory matters for Consensys Software wrote in December 2024, “Trading front ends would have to track and report on user activity — both US persons and non-US persons […] And it applies to the sale of every single digital asset — including NFTs and even stablecoins.”

The Blockchain Association, a major crypto industry lobby group, stated that the rule was “an infringement on the privacy rights of individuals using decentralized technology” that would push DeFi offshore.

While the rule has been stopped for now, there still aren’t fixed privacy guidelines in place — something Etherealize CEO Vivek Raman said the industry needs to move forward. 

“There needs to be clear frameworks for blockchain-based privacy while maintaining [Know Your Customer/Anti-Money Laundering] requirements,” he told Cointelegraph.

Raman stated that some transactions and customer data will need to remain private, “and we need guidance on what privacy can look like.”

How do you regulate DeFi?

The crypto space has long juggled user privacy demands and regulators’ Anti-Money Laundering and Know Your Customer concerns. 

One problem lies in the technology itself — if a network is created by many and controlled by no single entity, who can the government contact? 

Per Raman, “It’s hard for a decentralized protocol that is controlled by nobody to issue 1099s or fulfill broker-dealer responsibilities! Companies can certainly be [broker-dealers], but software has not been designed for [broker-dealer] rules.”

DeFi developers can and have been proactive in working with regulators, Chainalysis suggested, as was the case with certain protocols freezing funds after the disastrous $285 million KuCoin hack. 

Related: Timeline: How Bybit’s lost Ethereum went through North Korea’s washing machine

Cinneamhain Ventures partner and consultant Adam Cochran claimed that every protocol has certain pressure points regulators could press on if a protocol were used to commit a crime:

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Source: Adam Cochran

However, these specific instances do not make a comprehensive regulatory framework that both the industry and investor protection agencies can point to. 

In that regard, crypto analytics firm Chainalysis stated in 2020 that regulators may need to craft regulations for the DeFi space with decentralized reporting limitations in mind. 

Raman suggested that one possible solution could be zero-knowledge proofs, which allow users to confirm certain data without revealing it. 

He is optimistic about regulators’ ability to find a way to regulate the space while still maintaining user privacy: “I think we’ll see a positive sum environment where DeFi and compliance will coexist.”

The long-awaited crypto regulatory framework 

Trump has already made a number of pro-crypto measures through executive orders and appointing pro-crypto individuals to head parts of his administration — the most recent being the establishment of a strategic Bitcoin reserve. 

Related: US Rep. Byron Donalds to introduce bill codifying Trump’s Bitcoin reserve

The pro-crypto tenure of important financial regulators like the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has dropped a number of high-profile enforcement cases against crypto firms.

Congress repealed the IRS broker rule, but can it regulate DeFi?

While notable, the big fish that the crypto industry is waiting for is the crypto regulatory framework and stablecoin bills circulating in Congress, which would give the industry the guardrails it claims it needs to thrive. 

On March 13, the Senate Banking Committee approved the GENIUS Act, the stablecoin bill, putting it one step closer to a vote on the Senate floor. 

The crypto framework bill, FIT 21, was first introduced in the 2024 legislative session, ultimately failing in the Senate. However, in February, House Financial Services Committee Chair French Hill said that he anticipated the bill could pass in this session with “modest changes.”

But even if FIT 21 were passed soon, regulations for DeFi could be far off. The bill would exclude DeFi from SEC and CFTC oversight, but it would also establish a working group to research 12 key areas related to DeFi.

This study will seek to understand the risks and benefits of DeFi and will ultimately make regulatory recommendations. 

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Hong Kong fintech sector sees 250% blockchain growth since 2022

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Hong Kong fintech sector sees 250% blockchain growth since 2022

Hong Kong fintech sector sees 250% blockchain growth since 2022

Hong Kong anticipates the continued growth of its fintech ecosystem, with blockchain, digital assets, distributed ledger technology (DLT) and artificial intelligence playing a central role in shaping its future.

Hong Kong is home to over 1,100 fintech companies. This includes 175 blockchain application or software firms and 111 digital asset and cryptocurrency companies, which marked 250% and 30% increases, respectively, since 2022, according to the Hong Kong Fintech Ecosystem report by InvestHK, a government department overseeing Foreign Direct Investments.

Hong Kong fintech sector sees 250% blockchain growth since 2022

Participants of the Hong Kong Fintech Ecosystem. Source: InvestHK

Exploring deeper fintech revenue streams

The expansive growth of Hong Kong’s Web3 industry is attributed to proactive government policies and an active licensing regime for crypto exchanges or virtual asset trading platforms.

“The revenue for the Hong Kong fintech market is projected to reach US$606 billion by 2032, with an anticipated annual growth rate of 28.5% from 2024 to 2032,” the report stated.

InvestHK, along with other Hong Kong authorities, surveyed 130 fintech companies operating in Hong Kong and identified talent shortage as the top concern in the region, cited by 58.8% of respondents, followed by access to capital at 43.9%. 

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Addressing these hurdles will be critical to sustaining Hong Kong’s momentum to become the top financial hub.

Over 73% of the surveyed fintech companies operate in the AI subsector, far exceeding the 41.5% focused on digital assets and cryptocurrency.

China’s “one country, two systems” policy at play

The InvestHK report highlighted Hong Kong’s advantage in adopting China’s “one country, two systems” policy, allowing it to maintain a free-market economy, unrestricted capital flow and strong global trade relations while benefiting from its proximity to mainland China.

As a result, the Hong Kong government was able to roll out several Web3 innovations, including a licensing regime, spot Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) exchange-traded funds, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s stablecoin sandbox and tokenized finance and AI integration.

Hong Kong fintech sector sees 250% blockchain growth since 2022

Hong Kong Monetary Authority’s five-step “Fintech 2025” strategy. Source: HKMA

In 2021, the HKMA unveiled a strategy to establish itself as a financial hub by 2025

The strategy included encouraging fintech adoption among banks, increasing Hong Kong’s readiness in issuing central bank digital currencies at both wholesale and retail levels, enhancing the city’s existing data infrastructure and building new ones, increasing the supply of fintech talent and formulating supportive policies for the Hong Kong fintech ecosystem.

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US Rep. Byron Donalds to introduce bill codifying Trump’s Bitcoin reserve

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US Rep. Byron Donalds to introduce bill codifying Trump’s Bitcoin reserve

US Rep. Byron Donalds to introduce bill codifying Trump’s Bitcoin reserve

A new bill set to be introduced in Congress aims to formalize President Donald Trump’s executive order establishing a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, a move that could further integrate Bitcoin into the nation’s financial strategy.

Trump signed an executive order on March 7 to use Bitcoin (BTC) seized in government criminal cases to establish a national reserve.

The legislation, introduced by US Representative Byron Donalds, seeks to ensure the Bitcoin reserve becomes a permanent fixture, preventing future administrations from dismantling it through executive action.

US Rep. Byron Donalds to introduce bill codifying Trump’s Bitcoin reserve

Source: Margo Martin

“For years, the Democrats waged war on crypto,” Donalds, a Florida Republican, said in a statement to Bloomberg. “Now is the time for Congressional Republicans to decisively end this war.”

If the bill is passed, it would ensure that the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and the US Digital Asset Stockpile could not be eliminated via executive actions by a future administration.

The bill will require at least 60 votes in the Senate and a House majority to pass. With Republicans holding a Senate majority — and amid a generally more crypto-friendly environment — the bill has a chance of passing.

US Rep. Byron Donalds to introduce bill codifying Trump’s Bitcoin reserve

US states with Bitcoin reserve bill propositions. Source: Bitcoinlaws

According to Bitcoinlaws data, at least 23 US states have introduced legislation supporting a Bitcoin reserve, reflecting growing state-level interest in integrating crypto into fiscal policy.

Related: Trump turned crypto from ‘oppressed industry’ to ‘centerpiece’ of US strategy

A “pivotal moment” for US crypto regulations

The introduction of the Bitcoin reserve-related bill marks a pivotal moment for the wider crypto industry, not just BTC.

The legislation “aims to cement the reserve as a permanent fixture, shielding it from reversal by future administrations,” according to Anndy Lian, author and intergovernmental blockchain expert.

The bill signals the US government’s intent to integrate Bitcoin into its financial framework, Lian told Cointelegraph, adding:

“It builds on Trump’s earlier executive action by providing a statutory backbone, potentially clarifying the government’s stance on digital assets. If passed, the bill could reduce uncertainty that has long plagued the crypto space, where agencies like the SEC and CFTC have often clashed over jurisdiction.”

“A codified reserve might encourage a more cohesive regulatory approach, offering businesses and investors a clearer path forward,” he added.

However, identifying the right funding mechanisms and custody solutions for the Bitcoin reserve is a challenging step for governmental entities that may delay the fund’s creation.

Related: European lawmakers silent on US Bitcoin reserve amid digital euro push

The bill may also provide more clarity on the government’s future Bitcoin acquisition strategies. Although the current plan does not involve government Bitcoin purchases, the order does not rule them out.

The order authorizes the US Treasury and Commerce secretaries to develop “budget-neutral strategies” to buy more Bitcoin for the reserve, provided there are no additional costs to taxpayers.

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