US election 2024: The demographic divides that will decide whether Trump or Harris become president
Let’s talk about the big poll numbers and why – right now at least – they’re sort of useless. But also sort of useful.
The Sky News poll tracker (always useful, whatever the current state of the race) is still showing a consistent lead for Harris. But because it’s well within the margin of error, it doesn’t tell us anything about who’s likely to win the election.
What if we slice it differently and look at the swing states themselves? This is the latest polling.
Same problem here. Nevada has a healthy lead for Harris – perhaps beyond the margin of error. But the other six states are again within the margin of error so they could go either way. Especially North Carolina, which is a dead heat right now.
And, because of the way the electoral college works, there’s a scenario where everything actually hinges on North Carolina – a state that doesn’t even show a lead for either candidate. It feels like we are flying blind.
But there’s another way of slicing things, with demographics. This is a bit different to the way we look at demographics in the UK – they’re the main point of interest in the exit polling, which doesn’t publish a predicted overall winner like in a general election.
And there’s good news for both candidates here, when you combine the different demographics with the swing states.
The demographic divides that favour Harris
One of the most significant dividing lines in American politics is race. Fewer than one in eight black voters backed Trump in 2020, compared with 87% who voted for Biden.
That split could be particularly important in the two battlegrounds in the south, Georgia and North Carolina, which have significantly higher black populations than the US average.
Hispanic and Latin American voters also tend to vote Democrat, although not quite as enthusiastically as black voters. They backed Biden over Trump by more than two to one in 2020, 65% to 32%.
These voters will be particularly important in Arizona and Nevada, close to the Mexican border.
Harris’s standing in the polls among these groups is better than Biden’s was before he dropped out, but it may still not reach the same levels as her Democrat predecessors (including Biden) in recent past elections.
But a big percentage is only helpful if it’s out of a big number. The key for Harris will be persuading these voters to actually come out and cast their ballots.
Obama did this really well. Hillary Clinton didn’t. Biden did a bit better than her. Harris now has less than three weeks to build the enthusiasm behind her campaign.
The ones that favour Trump
One group that does tend to back Trump is rural voters. And the battleground states in general have more rural voters than the US average.
Trump will likely still win among this group, but some polls show Harris performing better than Biden was.
Pennsylvania might be best known for its big cities of industry, but it’s also powered by agriculture – only Texas and North Carolina are home to a higher overall number of rural voters.
You can easily spot the urban areas on this map of the 2020 results – Philadelphia in the far southwest, Pittsburgh in the east.
Winning in these crucial battleground states is never about winning across the entire state. It’s all about maximising your wins in the areas you’re likely to do best, while limiting your losses in the places your opponent is likely to win. No vote is worth any more than any other.
Back to the big poll number, then, and why it is sort of useful too.
If Harris adds to her national polling, that counts among black voters and women (two overlapping categories) within the rural voters within those swing states – which could be bad for Trump.
The rising tide of Harris’s national polling raises the demographics that are very important in those seven swing states.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
A man has been taken into custody two days after a US politician and her husband were shot dead in Minnesota, law enforcement officials have said.
Authorities had urged the public not to approach Vance Boelter, 57, who they warned could be armed, and who was reportedly posing as a police officer.
A massive manhunt was launched on Saturday after Melissa Hortman and Mark Hortman were shot dead at their home in Minneapolis in what Minnesota governor Tim Walz called a “politically motivated assassination”.
Police said the same gunman that killed the Hortmans had earlier shot and wounded Democrat senator John Hoffman and his wife, Yvette, at their home nine miles away.
Representative Melissa Hortman and Senator John Hoffman. Pic: Facebook/Minnesota Legislature
Boelter was arrested on Sunday evening in a rural area in Sibley County, southwest of Minneapolis.
He faces two counts of second-degree murder and two counts of attempted second-degree murder in the deaths of the Hortmans and the wounding of Hoffman and his wife.
The FBI released this image of Vance Boelter posing as a police officer. Pic: FBI.
Police said they responded to gunfire reports at the Hoffmans’ Champlin home shortly after 2am on Saturday and found them with multiple gunshot wounds.
They then checked on the Hortmans’ home, in the nearby Brooklyn Park suburb, and saw what appeared to be a police car and a man dressed as an officer leaving the front door.
“The individual immediately fired upon the officers, who exchanged gunfire, and the suspect retreated back into the home” and escaped on foot, said Brooklyn Park police chief Mark Bruley.
Authorities believe Boelter wore a mask as he posed as a police officer, and also used a vehicle resembling a squad car.
Several AK-style firearms and a list of about 70 names, which included politicians and abortion rights activists, were allegedly found inside the vehicle.
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Governor calls it ‘targeted political violence’
‘We are both incredibly lucky to be alive’
Senator Hoffman was shot nine times and is having multiple surgeries, according to a text message shared on Instagram by fellow senator Amy Klobuchar on Sunday.
The text from Yvette Hoffman added: “I took 8 and we are both incredibly lucky to be alive.”
She said her husband “is closer every hour to being out of the woods”.
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Neighbours of murdered US politician stunned
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Neighbours of killed US politician stunned
Records show Boelter – a father of five – is a former political appointee who served on the same state workforce development board as Mr Hoffman.
However, it’s unclear to what extent they knew each other, if at all.
Mr Hoffman, 60, was first elected in 2012 and runs a consulting firm called Hoffman Strategic Advisors.
Melissa Hortman, a 55-year-old mother of two, was first elected in 2004 and was the top house Democratic leader in the state legislature.
She also served as speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives.
The motive behind Melissa Hortman’s killing remains unclear. Pic: Instagram.
Mrs Hortman used her position to champion protections around abortion rights, including laws to cement Minnesota’s status as a safe refuge for people from restrictive states, who travel there for an abortion.
Her work also sought to introduce protections for services that provide abortions.
US
Minnesota manhunt continues for gunman who ‘posed as cop’ to kill Melissa Hortman and her husband
A manhunt is continuing after the gunning down of a Democrat politician and her husband – with police saying they’re acting on the assumption he is still alive and dangerous.
Melissa Hortman and Mark Hortman were shot dead at home in a Minneapolis suburb on Saturday in what governor Tim Walz called a “politically motivated assassination”.
Democrat senator John Hoffman and his wife were also shot multiple times at their home nine miles away, but survived.
A search is under way for Vance Boelter, 57, who authorities believe wore a mask as he posed as a police officer, and also used a vehicle resembling a squad car.
Several AK-style firearms and a list of about 70 names, which included politicians and abortion rights activists, were found inside.
Melissa Hortman and Senator John Hoffman. Pic: Facebook / Minnesota Legislature
Boelter was last caught on camera wearing a cowboy hat – a similar hat was found near another vehicle belonging to him on Sunday.
Authorities said at their latest news conference they assume he is still alive.
Hundreds of police officers are searching for Boelter, who escaped from the Hortmans’ house on foot after an exchange of gunfire.
Senator Hoffman was shot nine times and is having multiple surgeries, according to a text message shared on Instagram by fellow senator Amy Klobuchar on Sunday.
The text from Mr Hoffman’s wife, Yvette, added: “I took 8 and we are both incredibly lucky to be alive.”
She said her husband “is closer every hour to being out of the woods”.
“We believe [Boelter’s] somewhere in the vicinity and that they are going to find him,” Senator Klobuchar told NBC’s Meet the Press.
“Everyone’s on edge here,” she added, “because we know that this man will kill at a second.”
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Neighbours of killed US politician stunned
Police said they responded to gunfire reports at the Hoffmans’ Champlin home shortly after 2am on Saturday and found them with multiple gunshot wounds.
They then checked on the Hortmans’ home, in the nearby Brooklyn Park suburb, and saw what appeared to be a police car and a man dressed as an officer leaving the front door.
“The individual immediately fired upon the officers, who exchanged gunfire, and the suspect retreated back into the home” and escaped on foot, said Brooklyn Park police chief Mark Bruley.
Read more:
Neighbours of murdered US politician stunned
Another vehicle belonging to Boelter was searched on Sunday in Minnesota’s Faxon Township. A cowboy hat similar to the one seen in the police appeal was found nearby.
It’s been revealed that the suspect texted friends around 6am on Saturday to say he had “made some choices” and was “going to be gone for a while”.
According to AP, which has seen the messages, he reportedly said: “May be dead shortly, so I just want to let you know I love you guys both and I wish it hadn’t gone this way… I’m sorry for all the trouble this has caused.”
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Governor calls it ‘targeted political violence’
Records show Boelter – a father of five – is a former political appointee who served on the same state workforce development board as Mr Hoffman.
However, it’s unclear to what extent they knew each other, if at all.
Mr Hoffman, 60, was first elected in 2012 and runs a consulting firm called Hoffman Strategic Advisors.
The motive behind Melissa Hortman’s killing remains unclear. Pic: Instagram
Melissa Hortman, a 55-year-old mother of two, was first elected in 2004 and was the top house Democratic leader in the state legislature.
She also served as speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives.
Mrs Hortman used her position to champion protections around abortion rights, including laws to cement Minnesota’s status as a safe refuge for people from restrictive states, who travel there for an abortion.
Her work also sought to introduce protections for services that provide abortions.
“Holy, holy, holy” they sang at the Church of St Timothy in Blaine, Minnesota.
But the congregation is struggling to comprehend an act of evil – the brutal murder of one of their own.
The church congregation remembered Melissa and Mark Hortman
Melissa Hortman grew up here. The former state speaker and her husband Mark were shot dead in their home on Saturday morning.
Her friend and party colleague, Erin Koegal, was among those attending mass.
Erin Koegal says her friend’s death feels like a ‘bad dream’
“It still feels like a bad dream. I woke up this morning and was like, okay, so that was real,” she said.
“It’s hit me in waves, the grief, and the anger, and the sadness. She was a leader, a true definition of a leader.
“I’ve never known our party without Melissa as the leader and so I can’t, I don’t even know how we’re going to go forward as a caucus without her.”
The bullet holes on Melissa Hortman’s front door.
State senator John Hoffman and his wife Yvette had already been shot and wounded.
Police sent to check on his colleague, Melissa Hortman, didn’t get there in time.
Police are extensively searching for 57-year-old Vance Boelter
They named the suspect as Vance Boelter, a 57-year-old former Christian missionary.
Minnesota Governor Tim Walz called it a “politically motivated murder”.
Read more here:
Neighbours of murdered US politician stunned
Manhunt after Minnesota politician and husband shot dead
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Neighbours of killed US politician stunned
Friends of Ms Hortman have told Sky News that her two children feared for their mother’s life after reading divisive rhetoric directed at her online.
Matt Norris, another political colleague of Ms Hortman, was also at church, reflecting on the rise of political violence in America.
Matt Norris
“We’ve going to have to do some serious introspection as a state, as a country, and figure out how do we get beyond this,” he said.
“How have we been laying the seeds that have led to horrific acts of violence against public servants like this?
“And it’s going to be incumbent upon us as leaders to set a different tone, to set a different direction for our state and our country so that horrific tragedies like this never occur again.”
Tributes left for Melissa Hortman and her husband outside the Minnesota State Capitol
But there’s no sign of division at the State Capitol Building, where flags fly at half-mast and flowers are being left in tribute.
This is a community united in grief and in its hope for an end to gun violence in America.
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