US election 2024: The demographic divides that will decide whether Trump or Harris become president
Let’s talk about the big poll numbers and why – right now at least – they’re sort of useless. But also sort of useful.
The Sky News poll tracker (always useful, whatever the current state of the race) is still showing a consistent lead for Harris. But because it’s well within the margin of error, it doesn’t tell us anything about who’s likely to win the election.
What if we slice it differently and look at the swing states themselves? This is the latest polling.
Same problem here. Nevada has a healthy lead for Harris – perhaps beyond the margin of error. But the other six states are again within the margin of error so they could go either way. Especially North Carolina, which is a dead heat right now.
And, because of the way the electoral college works, there’s a scenario where everything actually hinges on North Carolina – a state that doesn’t even show a lead for either candidate. It feels like we are flying blind.
But there’s another way of slicing things, with demographics. This is a bit different to the way we look at demographics in the UK – they’re the main point of interest in the exit polling, which doesn’t publish a predicted overall winner like in a general election.
And there’s good news for both candidates here, when you combine the different demographics with the swing states.
The demographic divides that favour Harris
One of the most significant dividing lines in American politics is race. Fewer than one in eight black voters backed Trump in 2020, compared with 87% who voted for Biden.
That split could be particularly important in the two battlegrounds in the south, Georgia and North Carolina, which have significantly higher black populations than the US average.
Hispanic and Latin American voters also tend to vote Democrat, although not quite as enthusiastically as black voters. They backed Biden over Trump by more than two to one in 2020, 65% to 32%.
These voters will be particularly important in Arizona and Nevada, close to the Mexican border.
Harris’s standing in the polls among these groups is better than Biden’s was before he dropped out, but it may still not reach the same levels as her Democrat predecessors (including Biden) in recent past elections.
But a big percentage is only helpful if it’s out of a big number. The key for Harris will be persuading these voters to actually come out and cast their ballots.
Obama did this really well. Hillary Clinton didn’t. Biden did a bit better than her. Harris now has less than three weeks to build the enthusiasm behind her campaign.
The ones that favour Trump
One group that does tend to back Trump is rural voters. And the battleground states in general have more rural voters than the US average.
Trump will likely still win among this group, but some polls show Harris performing better than Biden was.
Pennsylvania might be best known for its big cities of industry, but it’s also powered by agriculture – only Texas and North Carolina are home to a higher overall number of rural voters.
You can easily spot the urban areas on this map of the 2020 results – Philadelphia in the far southwest, Pittsburgh in the east.
Winning in these crucial battleground states is never about winning across the entire state. It’s all about maximising your wins in the areas you’re likely to do best, while limiting your losses in the places your opponent is likely to win. No vote is worth any more than any other.
Back to the big poll number, then, and why it is sort of useful too.
If Harris adds to her national polling, that counts among black voters and women (two overlapping categories) within the rural voters within those swing states – which could be bad for Trump.
The rising tide of Harris’s national polling raises the demographics that are very important in those seven swing states.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Virginia Giuffre, who accused Prince Andrew of sexual assault, has died aged 41.
In a statement to Sky’s US partner network NBC News on Friday, her family said she took her own life in the Perth suburb of Neergabby, Australia, where she had been living for several years.
“It is with utterly broken hearts that we announce that Virginia passed away last night at her farm in Western Australia,” her family said.
“She lost her life to suicide, after being a lifelong victim of sexual abuse and sex trafficking.
“Virginia was a fierce warrior in the fight against sexual abuse and sex trafficking. She was the light that lifted so many survivors.
“In the end, the toll of abuse is so heavy that it became unbearable for Virginia to handle its weight.”
Pic: AP
Police said emergency services received reports of an unresponsive woman at a property in Neergabby on Friday night.
“Police and St John Western Australia attended and provided emergency first aid. Sadly, the 41-year-old woman was declared deceased at the scene,” a police spokeswoman said.
“The death is being investigated by Major Crime detectives; early indication is the death is not suspicious.”
Sexual assault claims
Prince Andrew has denied all claims of wrongdoing. File pic: Reuters
Ms Giuffre sued the Duke of York for sexual abuse in August 2021, saying Andrew had sex with her when she was 17 and had been trafficked by his friend, the billionaire paedophile Jeffrey Epstein.
The duke has repeatedly denied the claims, and he has not been charged with any criminal offences.
In March 2022, it was announced Ms Giuffre and Andrew had reached an out-of-court settlement – believed to include a “substantial donation to Ms Giuffre’s charity in support of victims’ rights”.
‘An incredible champion’
Sigrid McCawley, Ms Giuffre’s attorney, said in a statement that she “was much more than a client to me; she was a dear friend and an incredible champion for other victims”.
“Her courage pushed me to fight harder, and her strength was awe-inspiring,” she said. “The world has lost an amazing human being today.”
“Rest in peace, my sweet angel,” she added.
Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim every Wednesday
Dini von Mueffling, Ms Giuffre’s representative, also said that “Virginia was one of the most extraordinary human beings I have ever had the honour to know”.
“Deeply loving, wise, and funny, she was a beacon to other survivors and victims,” she added. “She adored her children and many animals.
“She was always more concerned with me than with herself. I will miss her beyond words.
“It was the privilege of a lifetime to represent her.”
Ms Giuffre said at the end of March she had four days to live after a car accident, posting on social media that “I’ve gone into kidney renal failure”. She was discharged from hospital eight days later.
Raised mainly in Florida, she said she was abused by a family friend early in life, which led to her living on the streets at times as a teenager.
She said that in 2000, she met Ghislaine Maxwell, a British socialite who was convicted in 2021 on federal sex trafficking and conspiracy charges and was sentenced to 20 years in prison.
Ghislaine Maxwell and Jeffrey Epstein. Pic: US Department of Justice
Ms Giuffre said Maxwell then introduced her to Epstein and hired her as his masseuse, and said she was sex trafficked and sexually abused by him and associates around the world.
‘A survivor’
After meeting her husband in 2002, while taking massage training in Thailand at what she said was Epstein’s behest, she moved to Australia and had a family.
She founded the sex trafficking victims’ advocacy charity SOAR in 2015, and is quoted on its website as saying: “I do this for victims everywhere.
“I am no longer the young and vulnerable girl who could be bullied. I am now a survivor, and nobody can ever take that away from me.”
:: Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK.
Donald Trump has met Volodymyr Zelenskyy ahead of the Pope’s funeral, Vatican sources have told Sky News.
The US and Ukrainian presidents had a “very productive discussion”, according to a White House Official, and have also agreed to hold further talks after the service.
They are among world leaders, including Sir Keir Starmer and Emmanuel Macron, who are attending the funeral of Pope Francis.
Follow live updates: Zelenskyy among world leaders joining thousands of mourners
There was applause from some of those gathered in St Peter’s Square when the Ukrainian leader walked out.
The former British ambassador to Russia Sir Tony Brenton said the event presents diplomatic opportunities, including the “biggest possible meeting” between Mr Trump and Mr Zelenskyy.
Trump and Zelenskyy meet for first time since Oval Office row. Pic: Reuters
He told Sky News it could mark “an important step” in starting the peace process between Russia and Ukraine, and is their first face-to-face meeting after a very public row between the presidents at the White House in February.
The bilateral meeting comes after Mr Trump’s peace negotiator Steve Witkoff held talks with Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin.
They discussed “the possibility of resuming direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine”, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said.
Russia and Ukraine have not held direct talks since the early weeks of the war, which began in February 2022.
Mr Trump has claimed a deal to end the war is “very close” and has urged Mr Zelenskyy to “get it done” in a post on his Truth Social platform.
He has previously warned both sides his administration would walk away from its efforts to achieve a peace if the two sides do not agree a deal soon.
Meanwhile, the Polish Armed Forces said a Russian military helicopter violated its airspace over the Baltic Sea on Friday evening, in a post on X.
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US
Donald Trump says Russia and Ukraine are ‘very close to a deal’ – and says ‘two sides should now meet’
Donald Trump has said Russia and Ukraine are “very close to a deal” with “most of the major points agreed” – as he called for the two sides to meet.
Shortly after arriving in Rome for Pope Francis’s funeral, the US president said high-level officials should now meet to “finish [the deal] off”.
“A good day in talks and meetings with Russia and Ukraine,” Mr Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform.
“They are very close to a deal, and the two sides should now meet, at very high levels, to ‘finish it off’.
“Most of the major points are agreed to. Stop the bloodshed, NOW. We will be wherever is necessary to help facilitate the END to this cruel and senseless war!”
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Ukraine-Russia peace talks explained
Throughout the week, the US president has criticised both Ukraine and Russia for failing to agree to a peace deal.
On Wednesday, he accused Mr Zelenskyy of harming talks on Truth Social, saying “the man with ‘no cards to play’ should now, finally, GET IT DONE”.
A day later, after nine people were killed in Kyiv after a Russian missile and drone strike, Mr Trump said: “Vladimir, STOP! 5000 soldiers a week are dying. Let’s get the Peace Deal DONE!”
The president and other officials have also threatened to withdraw from negotiations if no progress is made toward a deal.
It comes after Mr Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff met Vladimir Putin in Moscow to discuss a US-brokered peace plan for Ukraine.
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Putin-Witkoff meeting
The talks allowed Russia and the United States to “further bring their positions closer together” on “a number of international issues”, a Kremlin aide said.
Speaking earlier on the flight to Italy, Mr Trump said he hadn’t been fully briefed on Mr Witkoff and Mr Putin’s meeting – but added it was a “pretty good meeting”.
Read more:
US and Russia talks moving in ‘right direction’, top diplomat says
A ‘barbaric’ 24 hours in a ‘horrendous’ war
Russia and Ukraine have not held direct talks since the early weeks of the war, which began in February 2022.
Ukraine has repeatedly said it would not accept a deal conceding land or handing over sovereignty to Russia.
However, Mr Trump said in an interview with TIME magazine that “Crimea will stay with Russia,” describing the region as a place where Moscow has “had their submarines” and “the people speak largely Russian”.
“Zelenskyy understands that, and everybody understands that it’s been with them for a long time,” he added. “It’s been with them long before Trump came along.”
When asked on Friday about Mr Trump’s comments, Mr Zelenskyy did not want to comment but repeated that recognising occupied Ukrainian territory as Russian is a red line.
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