US election 2024: The demographic divides that will decide whether Trump or Harris become president
Let’s talk about the big poll numbers and why – right now at least – they’re sort of useless. But also sort of useful.
The Sky News poll tracker (always useful, whatever the current state of the race) is still showing a consistent lead for Harris. But because it’s well within the margin of error, it doesn’t tell us anything about who’s likely to win the election.
What if we slice it differently and look at the swing states themselves? This is the latest polling.
Same problem here. Nevada has a healthy lead for Harris – perhaps beyond the margin of error. But the other six states are again within the margin of error so they could go either way. Especially North Carolina, which is a dead heat right now.
And, because of the way the electoral college works, there’s a scenario where everything actually hinges on North Carolina – a state that doesn’t even show a lead for either candidate. It feels like we are flying blind.
But there’s another way of slicing things, with demographics. This is a bit different to the way we look at demographics in the UK – they’re the main point of interest in the exit polling, which doesn’t publish a predicted overall winner like in a general election.
And there’s good news for both candidates here, when you combine the different demographics with the swing states.
The demographic divides that favour Harris
One of the most significant dividing lines in American politics is race. Fewer than one in eight black voters backed Trump in 2020, compared with 87% who voted for Biden.
That split could be particularly important in the two battlegrounds in the south, Georgia and North Carolina, which have significantly higher black populations than the US average.
Hispanic and Latin American voters also tend to vote Democrat, although not quite as enthusiastically as black voters. They backed Biden over Trump by more than two to one in 2020, 65% to 32%.
These voters will be particularly important in Arizona and Nevada, close to the Mexican border.
Harris’s standing in the polls among these groups is better than Biden’s was before he dropped out, but it may still not reach the same levels as her Democrat predecessors (including Biden) in recent past elections.
But a big percentage is only helpful if it’s out of a big number. The key for Harris will be persuading these voters to actually come out and cast their ballots.
Obama did this really well. Hillary Clinton didn’t. Biden did a bit better than her. Harris now has less than three weeks to build the enthusiasm behind her campaign.
The ones that favour Trump
One group that does tend to back Trump is rural voters. And the battleground states in general have more rural voters than the US average.
Trump will likely still win among this group, but some polls show Harris performing better than Biden was.
Pennsylvania might be best known for its big cities of industry, but it’s also powered by agriculture – only Texas and North Carolina are home to a higher overall number of rural voters.
You can easily spot the urban areas on this map of the 2020 results – Philadelphia in the far southwest, Pittsburgh in the east.
Winning in these crucial battleground states is never about winning across the entire state. It’s all about maximising your wins in the areas you’re likely to do best, while limiting your losses in the places your opponent is likely to win. No vote is worth any more than any other.
Back to the big poll number, then, and why it is sort of useful too.
If Harris adds to her national polling, that counts among black voters and women (two overlapping categories) within the rural voters within those swing states – which could be bad for Trump.
The rising tide of Harris’s national polling raises the demographics that are very important in those seven swing states.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
An end to the longest US government shutdown in history is one step closer after Senate Democrats broke with their party to strike a deal with the Republicans.
Senators backed by 60 votes to 40 legislation to end the impasse, though it still needs approval from the House of Representatives – and sign-off by President Donald Trump.
He has indicated he is happy with the agreement, though, which would restore funding for federal agencies that have gone without since 1 October.
It would also prevent any further layoffs until 30 January, but does not satisfy Democrat demands regarding health care insurance for millions of Americans.
Attractions across the US have been closed. Pic: AP
Health care was at the heart of the dispute that led to the shutdown.
The Democrats had refused to support a Republican budget plan unless tax credits that made medical insurance cheaper for millions of people were renewed.
The willingness of eight moderate Democrats to break the Senate deadlock without that guarantee has provoked fury among many in the party.
Some are now calling on Senate Minority Chuck Schumer to be replaced because he is “no longer effective”.
California Governor Gavin Newsom – regarded as a contender for the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination – said: “Pathetic. This isn’t a deal. It’s surrender.”
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The shutdown has caused extensive travel disruption. Pic: Reuters
On Monday morning, Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune had urged politicians to work together to break a stalemate that had lasted for more than 40 days.
He said: “The American people have suffered for long enough. Let’s not pointlessly drag this bill out.”
The shutdown began on 1 October – with 670,000 federal government employees furloughed or left with no choice but to work without pay.
SNAP, a food aid programme used by 42 million Americans, has been frozen – with thousands of flights cancelled at dozens of major airports.
Mr Trump has told air traffic controllers to get back to work, threatening anyone who doesn’t with “docked” pay.
The funding package now heading to the House of Representatives only lasts through to 30 January, making it a relatively short-term solution that will require further negotiation.
Donald Trump has threatened to sue the BBC for $1bn over edits the organisation made last year to one of his speeches.
The organisation has been engulfed in a crisis, forced to apologise on Monday after two of its most senior figures, including the director-general, resigned on Sunday night.
The defamation claim centres around a BBC Panorama documentary, which aired October 2024 and showed an edited speech made by Mr Trump before the attack on the US Capitol on 6 January 2021, in which he appeared to tell his supporters he was going to walk with them to the US Capitol and “fight like hell”.
In a letter dated 9 November, Florida-based lawyer Alejandro Brito set the BBC a deadline of 10pm UK time on Friday to respond, outlining three demands:
• Issue a “full and fair retraction” of the documentary
• Apologise immediately
• “Appropriately compensate” the US president
He told the BBC it needed to “comply” or face being sued for $1bn.
A BBC spokesperson said: “We will review the letter and respond directly in due course.”
‘Error of judgement’
On Monday, BBC chairman Samir Shah, one of the most senior figures still standing, apologised for the “error of judgement” in editing the video.
In a letter to the Culture, Media and Sport Committee of MPs, Mr Shah said Mr Trump’s speech was edited in a way that gave “the impression of a direct call for violent action”.
“The BBC would like to apologise for that error of judgement,” he added.
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BBC admits Trump documentary ‘mistake’
Director-general and head of BBC News resign
Concerns about the edited speech first came to light in a leaked memo from Michael Prescott, a former journalist and independent adviser to the BBC’s Editorial Guidelines and Standards Board.
As a result, BBC director-general Tim Davie and BBC News chief Deborah Turness announced their resignations on Sunday evening, saying in emails to staff that mistakes had been made.
Mr Davie will address an all-staff meeting on Tuesday. While on her way into the Broadcasting House on Monday morning, Ms Turness defended the corporation, rejecting accusations of institutional bias.
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Trump’s claims of ‘corrupt’ BBC journalists rejected
Downing St stands by BBC – but chancellor says ‘lessons to be learned’
A spokesperson for the prime minister told reporters on Monday that the BBC wasn’t corrupt or institutionally biased.
Instead, they said it had a “vital role” to play in the modern age, but needed to ensure it acted “to maintain trust and correct mistakes quickly when they occur”.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves also stood by the corporation, but said that “lessons do need to be learned”.
‘Nothing but an apology’
Veteran broadcaster and former BBC presenter Jonathan Dimbleby told Sky News, however, that the organisation owed the US president nothing more than an apology.
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‘These are very serious times for the BBC’
But former legal correspondent for the BBC Joshua Rozenberg also told Sky News that he believed the corporation would “very likely” consider settling with Trump.
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BBC ‘very likely to consider settling with Trump best thing to do’
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Mr Trump’s attack on the BBC is the latest in a long string of multibillion-dollar battles he’s engaged with various media institutions.
Former al Qaeda commander and now Syrian leader Ahmed al Sharaa has been welcomed by Donald Trump to the White House.
It was the first visit to the Oval Office by a Syrian head of state since the country gained independence in 1946.
Mr Sharaa, 43, who once had a $10m US bounty on his head, led rebel forces that overthrew dictator Bashar al-Assad last December, and was named interim leader in January.
The US president called Mr al Sharaa a “very strong leader” after their meeting and suggested the US would work to help the country succeed.
“He comes from a very tough place,” Mr Trump said, adding Mr al Sharaa is a “tough guy” and “I like him”.
Mr Sharra has “had a rough past”, but added, “we’ve all had a rough past”, he added.
Trump shared a picture of the two leaders on social media. Pic: Truth Social
Mr Trump has become one of the Syrian president’s more enthusiastic backers, considering the nation of strategic importance.
He didn’t provide any policy details about the meeting, but said “we’ll do everything we can to make Syria successful because that’s part of the Middle East”.
Read more: Why this meeting is a big deal
Trump and al Sharaa appeared to get on well. Pics: AP
‘What the hell are we doing?’
Mr al Sharaa was greeted by a cheering crowd of supporters, some waving Syrian flags, upon his arrival on Monday.
But not everyone was overjoyed at the historic meeting.
Far-right activist Laura Loomer, a self-proclaimed “Islamophobe” who wields influence in Mr Trump’s MAGA movement, posted on X that Mr al Sharaa was “the ISIS ‘President’ of Syria”.
“What the hell are we doing?” she wrote of his White House visit.
Days before the meeting, Mr Trump told reporters “a lot of progress has been made” on Syria and Mr al Sharaa was “doing a very good job”.
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al Sharaa waves as he greets supporters outside the White House. Pics: AP
Last week, the US voted to lift a series of sanctions on the Syrian president and members of his government.
Mr al Sharaa is hoping for a permanent repeal of sanctions placed on Syria for allegations of human rights abuses by Assad’s government and security forces – but congressional action would be needed for a permanent repeal.
Mr Trump and Mr al Sharaa first met in May in Saudi Arabia. At the time, the US president described Mr al Sharaa as a “young, attractive guy. Tough guy. Strong past, very strong past. Fighter”.
Monday’s meeting came after Syria launched raids against Islamic State cells.
It was the first official encounter between the US and Syria since 2000, when then president Bill Clinton met Hafez Assad.
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