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Let’s talk about the big poll numbers and why – right now at least – they’re sort of useless. But also sort of useful.

The Sky News poll tracker (always useful, whatever the current state of the race) is still showing a consistent lead for Harris. But because it’s well within the margin of error, it doesn’t tell us anything about who’s likely to win the election.

What if we slice it differently and look at the swing states themselves? This is the latest polling.

Same problem here. Nevada has a healthy lead for Harris – perhaps beyond the margin of error. But the other six states are again within the margin of error so they could go either way. Especially North Carolina, which is a dead heat right now.

And, because of the way the electoral college works, there’s a scenario where everything actually hinges on North Carolina – a state that doesn’t even show a lead for either candidate. It feels like we are flying blind.

But there’s another way of slicing things, with demographics. This is a bit different to the way we look at demographics in the UK – they’re the main point of interest in the exit polling, which doesn’t publish a predicted overall winner like in a general election.

And there’s good news for both candidates here, when you combine the different demographics with the swing states.

The demographic divides that favour Harris

One of the most significant dividing lines in American politics is race. Fewer than one in eight black voters backed Trump in 2020, compared with 87% who voted for Biden.

That split could be particularly important in the two battlegrounds in the south, Georgia and North Carolina, which have significantly higher black populations than the US average.

Hispanic and Latin American voters also tend to vote Democrat, although not quite as enthusiastically as black voters. They backed Biden over Trump by more than two to one in 2020, 65% to 32%.

These voters will be particularly important in Arizona and Nevada, close to the Mexican border.

Harris’s standing in the polls among these groups is better than Biden’s was before he dropped out, but it may still not reach the same levels as her Democrat predecessors (including Biden) in recent past elections.

But a big percentage is only helpful if it’s out of a big number. The key for Harris will be persuading these voters to actually come out and cast their ballots.

Obama did this really well. Hillary Clinton didn’t. Biden did a bit better than her. Harris now has less than three weeks to build the enthusiasm behind her campaign.

The ones that favour Trump

One group that does tend to back Trump is rural voters. And the battleground states in general have more rural voters than the US average.

Trump will likely still win among this group, but some polls show Harris performing better than Biden was.

Pennsylvania might be best known for its big cities of industry, but it’s also powered by agriculture – only Texas and North Carolina are home to a higher overall number of rural voters.

You can easily spot the urban areas on this map of the 2020 results – Philadelphia in the far southwest, Pittsburgh in the east.

Winning in these crucial battleground states is never about winning across the entire state. It’s all about maximising your wins in the areas you’re likely to do best, while limiting your losses in the places your opponent is likely to win. No vote is worth any more than any other.

Back to the big poll number, then, and why it is sort of useful too.

If Harris adds to her national polling, that counts among black voters and women (two overlapping categories) within the rural voters within those swing states – which could be bad for Trump.

The rising tide of Harris’s national polling raises the demographics that are very important in those seven swing states.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Venezuela accuses Trump of ‘colonial threat,’ after US president ‘closes’ its airspace

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Venezuela accuses Trump of 'colonial threat,' after US president 'closes' its airspace

Venezuela has accused Donald Trump of making a “colonial threat,” after the US president said the airspace “above and surrounding” the country should be considered closed “in its entirety”.

Mr Trump made the declaration amid growing tensions with president Nicolas Maduro – and as the US continues attacking boats it claims are carrying drugs from Venezuela.

He wrote on Truth Social: “To all Airlines, Pilots, Drug Dealers, and Human Traffickers, please consider THE AIRSPACE ABOVE AND SURROUNDING VENEZUELA TO BE CLOSED IN ITS ENTIRETY.”

Air traffic above Venezuela on Saturday afternoon. Pic: FlightRadar24
Image:
Air traffic above Venezuela on Saturday afternoon. Pic: FlightRadar24

Venezuela’s foreign affairs office called it a “colonial threat” and “illegal, and unjustified aggression,” and accused the president of threatening “the sovereignty of the national airspace… and the full sovereignty of the Venezuelan state”.

It added that Mr Trump’s words were part of a “permanent policy of aggression against our country” that breached international law and the UN Charter.

The Pentagon and the White House have so far not given any additional detail on the president’s statement, but it marks the latest escalation in tensions between the North and South American countries

Last week, the American aviation regulator warned of a “potentially hazardous situation” over Venezuela due to a “worsening security situation”.

Nicolas Maduro is widely considered a dictator by the West. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Nicolas Maduro is widely considered a dictator by the West. Pic: Reuters

Venezuela then revoked operating rights for six major airlines, which went on to suspend flights to the country.

Mr Trump warned a few days ago that land operations against alleged Venezuelan drug traffickers would begin “very soon”.

Such a move would be a major escalation in Operation Southern Spear – the US naval deployment in the Caribbean Sea and eastern Pacific that has so far attacked at least 21 vessels.

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Three killed as US strikes another alleged drug boat

Venezuela has said the attacks, which have killed more than 80 people, amount to murder.

The US has released videos of boats being targeted, but hasn’t provided evidence – such as photos of their cargo – to support the smuggling claims.

Read more:
Trump may have another motive in war on drugs
The US-Venezuela crisis explained

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Venezuela claims Trump creating ‘fables’ to justify ‘war’

The Pentagon has sought to justify the strikes by labelling the drug gangs as “foreign terrorist organisations” – putting them on par with the likes of al Qaeda.

It claims the boats targeted are carrying drugs bound for the US, although Sky’s chief correspondent says the final destination is likely to be Europe and West Africa.

The US is also offering a reward of $50m for the arrest of the Venezuelan president, who has been indicted in American courts on federal charges of narco-terrorism and conspiracy to import cocaine.

Mr Maduro has denied Mr Trump’s claims that he is involved in the drugs trade himself and said his counterpart wants to oust him so he can install a more sympathetic government.

Venezuelan officials have also claimed Mr Trump’s true motivation is access to the country’s plentiful oil reserves.

Mr Maduro, who has been president since 2013, has been accused of being a dictator who has cheated in elections.

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Police vow to ‘hunt down animals’ behind mass shooting at children’s birthday party in California

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Police vow to 'hunt down animals' behind mass shooting at children's birthday party in California

Police have vowed to “hunt down” the “animals” behind a mass shooting at a children’s birthday party in California.

Three children and a 21-year-old died in Saturday’s shooting at a banquet hall, with 11 more injured.

“We all know that there are people out there [who] are violent and commit violent crimes,” said Patrick Withrow, sheriff of San Joaquin County.

“But these animals walked in and shot children at a children’s birthday party.”

Bystanders watch at the scene of the shooting in Stockton, California. Pic: AP
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Bystanders watch at the scene of the shooting in Stockton, California. Pic: AP

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Children killed in birthday party shooting

Officers were called to the banquet hall in Stockton just before 6pm local time (2am UK time).

Around 100-150 people had gathered to celebrate a child’s birthday.

The sheriff told reporters he had been at a Thanksgiving celebration in Oregon during the incident but “put down my grandbabies to come hunt down these animals who took somebody else’s babies away from them”.

More on California

Investigators examine the scene on Sunday. Pic: AP
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Investigators examine the scene on Sunday. Pic: AP

A man walks near the remains of flares near the site of Saturday's shooting. Pic: Bronte Wittpenn/San Francisco Chronicle/AP
Image:
A man walks near the remains of flares near the site of Saturday’s shooting. Pic: Bronte Wittpenn/San Francisco Chronicle/AP

He appealed for the public to send in “any little bit” of information that could lead to the arrest of the gunmen.

“If you know anything about this, you have to come forward and tell us what you know.”

There is currently nobody in custody over the incident.

First responders attending. Pic: AP
Image:
First responders attending. Pic: AP

Although the investigation is still under way, Sheriff Withrow said there appeared to have been “multiple shooters” who began the attack indoors and then moved outside.

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The shooting was “not a random act”, he said. “They walked into this area and were probably looking for somebody in particular.”

He confirmed that guns had been found on the roof of a nearby building but it was too early to say whether they were “related to this crime”.

Police have also towed multiple cars in the area, some damaged with bullet holes, in case they can be used as evidence.

“Please continue to give us more information,” he said, “and we will follow every single lead.”

A vigil was held for the victims on Sunday, according to local media, with the entire local council in attendance.

On Saturday, Stockton mayor Christina Fugazi said that “families should be together instead of at the hospital, standing next to their loved one, praying that they survive”.

California governor Gavin Newsom’s office added that he had been briefed on the “horrific shooting”.

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Children killed in mass shooting at birthday party in Stockton, California

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Children killed in mass shooting at birthday party in Stockton, California

Children are among the fatalities in a mass shooting at a child’s birthday party in California.

Police said four people had died and 10 were wounded in the incident in Stockton, about 60 miles east of San Francisco.

Officers were called on Saturday to a banquet hall just before 6pm local time (2am UK time) and district attorney Ron Freitas said children were among the dead.

He said the attacker was still at large.

First responders walk through a parking lot near the scene of a mass shooting in Stockton, California. Pics: AP
Image:
First responders walk through a parking lot near the scene of a mass shooting in Stockton, California. Pics: AP

“We can confirm at this time that approximately 14 individuals were struck by gunfire, and four victims have been confirmed deceased,” San Joaquin County Sheriff’s Office said on X.

The post said early indications suggest it could be a “targeted incident” but that information remains limited.

Police have so far not disclosed the attacker’s identity and the motive is unclear.

Stockton’s vice mayor Jason Lee confirmed on Facebook that the shooting on Lucile Avenue happened at a child’s birthday party.

Pics: AP
Image:
Pics: AP

Mayor Christina Fugazzi also said that “families should be together instead of at the hospital, standing next to their loved one, praying that they survive”.

California governor Gavin Newsom’s office added that he had been briefed on the “horrific shooting”.

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