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Let’s talk about the big poll numbers and why – right now at least – they’re sort of useless. But also sort of useful.

The Sky News poll tracker (always useful, whatever the current state of the race) is still showing a consistent lead for Harris. But because it’s well within the margin of error, it doesn’t tell us anything about who’s likely to win the election.

What if we slice it differently and look at the swing states themselves? This is the latest polling.

Same problem here. Nevada has a healthy lead for Harris – perhaps beyond the margin of error. But the other six states are again within the margin of error so they could go either way. Especially North Carolina, which is a dead heat right now.

And, because of the way the electoral college works, there’s a scenario where everything actually hinges on North Carolina – a state that doesn’t even show a lead for either candidate. It feels like we are flying blind.

But there’s another way of slicing things, with demographics. This is a bit different to the way we look at demographics in the UK – they’re the main point of interest in the exit polling, which doesn’t publish a predicted overall winner like in a general election.

And there’s good news for both candidates here, when you combine the different demographics with the swing states.

The demographic divides that favour Harris

One of the most significant dividing lines in American politics is race. Fewer than one in eight black voters backed Trump in 2020, compared with 87% who voted for Biden.

That split could be particularly important in the two battlegrounds in the south, Georgia and North Carolina, which have significantly higher black populations than the US average.

Hispanic and Latin American voters also tend to vote Democrat, although not quite as enthusiastically as black voters. They backed Biden over Trump by more than two to one in 2020, 65% to 32%.

These voters will be particularly important in Arizona and Nevada, close to the Mexican border.

Harris’s standing in the polls among these groups is better than Biden’s was before he dropped out, but it may still not reach the same levels as her Democrat predecessors (including Biden) in recent past elections.

But a big percentage is only helpful if it’s out of a big number. The key for Harris will be persuading these voters to actually come out and cast their ballots.

Obama did this really well. Hillary Clinton didn’t. Biden did a bit better than her. Harris now has less than three weeks to build the enthusiasm behind her campaign.

The ones that favour Trump

One group that does tend to back Trump is rural voters. And the battleground states in general have more rural voters than the US average.

Trump will likely still win among this group, but some polls show Harris performing better than Biden was.

Pennsylvania might be best known for its big cities of industry, but it’s also powered by agriculture – only Texas and North Carolina are home to a higher overall number of rural voters.

You can easily spot the urban areas on this map of the 2020 results – Philadelphia in the far southwest, Pittsburgh in the east.

Winning in these crucial battleground states is never about winning across the entire state. It’s all about maximising your wins in the areas you’re likely to do best, while limiting your losses in the places your opponent is likely to win. No vote is worth any more than any other.

Back to the big poll number, then, and why it is sort of useful too.

If Harris adds to her national polling, that counts among black voters and women (two overlapping categories) within the rural voters within those swing states – which could be bad for Trump.

The rising tide of Harris’s national polling raises the demographics that are very important in those seven swing states.


The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.

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Trump sends National Guard into Memphis, and hints Chicago is next

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Trump sends National Guard into Memphis, and hints Chicago is next

Donald Trump has said he is sending the National Guard into the city of Memphis to fight crime, with Chicago likely to be next.

The Memphis Safe Task Force will be a “replica of our extraordinarily successful efforts” in Washington DC, the US president said on Monday, as he continues to use military force to battle urban crime.

Officials from various federal agencies – including the FBI, Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), and the US Marshall’s service – will also go to Memphis, as Mr Trump said: “We’re sending in the big force now.”

He said there was “virtually no crime in DC right now”, after National Guard troops were deployed to the nation’s capital last month and the city’s police force was brought under federal control.

Mr Trump, who arrives in the UK for his second state visit this week, signed a memo setting up the Memphis operation in the White House.

(L-R) Attorney General Pam Bondi, Trump, Senator Marsha Blackburn, Senator Bill Hagerty and Tennessee Governor Bill Lee. Pic: AP
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(L-R) Attorney General Pam Bondi, Trump, Senator Marsha Blackburn, Senator Bill Hagerty and Tennessee Governor Bill Lee. Pic: AP

He was joined in the Oval Office by Tennessee’s Republican governor, Bill Lee, who – the president said – had asked him to intervene there.

Mr Lee thanked the president, who told him it “will be your proudest moment”, before adding “we’re going to be doing Chicago probably next.”

Calling Chicago “a great city”, Mr Trump said “we’re going to make it great again very soon.”

The president told of a conversation he had with a businessman, who told him: “Sir, you’ve got to save Chicago. You can’t let it go.”

Read more:
What we know about Trump’s state visit

A vanity trip or a powerful card to play?
Vance blames ‘left-wing extremism’ for Kirk killing

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Trump state visit: How will the UK protect him?

Unlike Mr Lee, Illinois’ Democratic governor, JB Pritzker, and the city’s Democratic leaders, have criticised the idea, insisting the action isn’t needed.

Shortly before Mr Trump’s announcement, the White House said on social media that Memphis’ total crime rate was higher than the national average and suggested it had increased since last year, unlike national rates.

But the city’s police force recently reported decreases across every major crime category in the first eight months of 2025 compared to the same period in previous years.

Overall crime hit a 25-year low, while murder hit a six-year low, police said.

Persistent gun violence has plagued Memphis for years, with a record total of more than 390 murders in 2023.

The president hinted other cities, such as St Louis, Baltimore, and New Orleans, could follow.

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Vance says ‘left-wing extremism’ a factor in Charlie Kirk killing as FBI says suspect matches DNA found at scene

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Vance says 'left-wing extremism' a factor in Charlie Kirk killing as FBI says suspect matches DNA found at scene

JD Vance has paid tribute to Charlie Kirk while hosting his show and claimed “left-wing extremism” was a factor in his assassination, while the FBI director said DNA matching the suspect’s was found on evidence at the scene.

The vice president hosted The Charlie Kirk Show from the White House in tribute to the right-wing influencer, who was killed at Utah Valley University on Wednesday.

“The last several days have been extremely hard,” he said, adding that: “Everyone in this building owes something to Charlie… I don’t think I’m alone in saying that Charlie was one of the smartest political operators I’ve ever met.”

During his opening monologue, Mr Vance said “we have to make sure that the killer is brought to justice,” before claiming that left-wing extremism was part of the reason behind Mr Kirk’s death.

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US vice president carries Charlie Kirk’s coffin

“We have to talk about this incredibly destructive movement of left-wing extremism that has grown up over the last few years,” he said, “and I believe is part of the reason why Charlie was killed by an assassin’s bullet.

“We’re going to talk about how to dismantle that and how to bring real unity that can only come when we tell the truth and everybody knows that they can speak their mind without being cut down by a murderer’s gun.”

Later, while speaking with White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller, Mr Vance said the Trump administration is trying to stop “festering violence from the far-left from spreading”.

More on Charlie Kirk

And in his closing remarks, the vice president claimed without evidence that “Liberal billionaires rewarded” and funded outlets that published criticisms of Mr Kirk after his death.

He also claimed, again without evidence: “People on the left are much likelier to defend and celebrate political violence. This is not a ‘both sides’ problem.”

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Kirk suspect ‘not cooperating’

FBI: Suspect linked to evidence at scene

Tyler Robinson, 22, from Washington in Utah, was arrested after a manhunt on suspicion of killing Mr Kirk, and is due to appear in court on Tuesday.

He is being held without bail on suspicion of aggravated murder, a felony discharge of a firearm causing serious bodily injury, and obstruction of justice.

The motive of the shooting is unclear, while experts said engravings left on ammunition at the scene of the shooting were “extremely online”.

But Utah’s Republican governor, Spencer James Cox, previously claimed in an interview with The Wall Street Journal that he had been “deeply indoctrinated with leftist ideology”.

And on Sunday’s NBC News Meet The Press show, Mr Cox said the suspect was in a relationship with his roommate, who was in the process of transitioning – something unnamed officials confirmed to the channel. So far, no official has yet said whether the relationship is relevant to their investigation.

Later on Monday, FBI director Kash Patel told Fox News that evidence found at the scene had been linked to Robinson via DNA sequencing.

He told Fox and Friends that DNA matching Robinson’s was found on a towel allegedly wrapped around a firearm that was discarded in a wooded area near the university – stressing no other evidence from the scene had been processed as of yet.

Mr Patel added that the suspect’s actions were premeditated, and repeated the claim that the killing was based on his political beliefs.

“His family has collectively told investigators that he subscribed to left-wing ideology,” he said, “and even more so in these last couple of years, and he had a text message exchange… in which he claimed that he had an opportunity to take out Charlie Kirk, and he was going to do it because of his hatred for what Charlie stood for.”

Read more from Sky News:
What Trump’s second state visit to UK really means
Starmer urged to maximise pressure on US over tariffs
How runaway couple killed their baby

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Vance says ‘I owe so much to Charlie’

The vice president and Mr Kirk were close friends, with Mr Vance saying in his first tribute that “he was a true friend” and that “he didn’t just help us win in 2024, he helped us staff the entire government”.

The vice president also said on the Rumble show that “I owe so much to Charlie”, adding that Mr Kirk texted friends that Mr Vance should be the vice presidential nominee for Donald Trump in the run-up to last year’s presidential election.

“It’s such an honour to have people show me that Charlie said ‘we want JD to be the VP nominee’,” he added.

“Do you know what it means to me that such a good guy, such a good friend, such a lion and visionary of our movement was advocating for me?”

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Charlie Kirk suspect Tyler Robinson ‘was in romantic relationship with transgender roommate’ – Utah governor

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Charlie Kirk suspect Tyler Robinson 'was in romantic relationship with transgender roommate' - Utah governor

The suspect accused of shooting dead right-wing influencer Charlie Kirk was in a romantic relationship with his transgender roommate, Utah’s governor has said.

Tyler Robinson, 22, from Washington in Utah, is due to appear in court on Tuesday after Kirk, 31, was killed during one of his rallies at Utah Valley University on Wednesday.

Robinson is being held without bail on suspicion of aggravated murder, a felony discharge of a firearm causing serious bodily injury, and obstruction of justice.

According to Utah’s Republican governor, Spencer James Cox, he was in a relationship with his roommate – who was in the process of transitioning.

“The roommate was a romantic partner,” he told NBC News’s Meet The Press on Sunday. “We can confirm that that roommate is a boyfriend who is transitioning from male to female.”

He added that the roommate has been “incredibly cooperative” and had “no idea that this [the shooting] was happening”, but that Robinson has not been cooperating with police.

Tyler Robinson. Pic: Utah Governor's Office
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Tyler Robinson. Pic: Utah Governor’s Office

Charlie Kirk at Utah Valley University before he was shot. Pic: AP
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Charlie Kirk at Utah Valley University before he was shot. Pic: AP

Kirk, who co-founded the conservative student movement Turning Point USA, regularly expressed anti-LGBTQ views.

The motive of the shooting is unclear, and officials have not said whether Robinson’s relationship – or his roommate’s gender – is relevant to their investigation.

Authorities are still trying to get access to cloud storage linked to Robinson, according to NBC.

Mr Cox has previously said the suspect came from a “conservative family, but his ideology was very different than his family”, adding in an interview with The Wall Street Journal that he had been “deeply indoctrinated with leftist ideology”.

According to the governor, his relatives have said Robinson was critical of Kirk, saying he was “full of hate and spreading hate” and “talked about why he didn’t like him and the viewpoints that he had”.

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Security camera shows Charlie Kirk suspect

The 22-year-old is due to be charged when he makes his first court appearance on Tuesday, according to the Utah County attorney’s office.

He was in his third year of an electrical apprenticeship programme at Dixie Technical College in St George, Utah, NBC reported.

A spokesperson for Utah Valley University, where Kirk was speaking when he was shot in the neck, said Robinson studied there for one semester in 2021.

Kristin Schwiermann, a neighbour of his family’s, described him as “smart” and “quiet”, and added that he “never caused any problems”.

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Woman recalls encounter with Charlie Kirk suspect

Memorial to be held at Super Bowl venue

It was revealed on Sunday that a memorial to Kirk will be held at the stadium where the 2023 US Super Bowl was held.

State Farm Stadium, just outside of Phoenix, Arizona, is home to the American football team the Arizona Cardinals and can hold 60,000 people.

President Donald Trump has said he plans to attend and will posthumously award Kirk with the highest US civilian honour – the Presidential Medal of Freedom.

Kirk, who hosted his own self-titled podcast, had millions of followers on social media.

He was a regular visitor at the White House and has been credited with the increase in young men voting for Mr Trump at the 2024 presidential election.

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