Where NLCS, ALCS stand: Who are the early MVPs? Which teams have impressed us most?
We are two games into both 2024 League Championship Series, and it’s time for our snap judgements based on what we’ve seen so far.
The NLCS is tied after dominant offensive performances carried the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets to wins at Dodger Stadium.
In the ALCS, the New York Yankees overpowered the Cleveland Guardians both nights in the Bronx to take a commanding 2-0 series lead.
What has stood out most so far? Who are the early MVPs of each series? And what’s next for the World Series hopefuls? Our MLB experts weigh in.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Mets
Who is the two-games-in MVP of this NLCS?
Alden Gonzalez: It’s pretty remarkable to consider the rarity of Jack Flaherty‘s accomplishment for the Dodgers in Game 1. With seven scoreless innings in L.A.’s 9-0 win, he became the first Dodgers starter since 2021 to complete at least six innings in the postseason, breaking a streak of 20 games. The last time someone threw seven scoreless in the playoffs? Clayton Kershaw, in the first round in 2020. The Dodgers have had a lot of starting pitching issues in October — perhaps never more so than this year, with so many key arms injured. Flaherty, who lines up to start again in Game 5, needs to keep pitching deep into games. So do Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler. This team can’t win a championship without it.
Bradford Doolittle: It’s got to be a tie, because we’ve had two completely different games that now leave us dead even. So it’s Jack Flaherty for his seven goose eggs in Game 1, tied with Mark Vientos for his nine-pitch grand slam in Game 2.
David Schoenfield: One thing that’s clear — as seems to be the case every October with the Dodgers — is that Dave Roberts’ decisions will factor heavily into the results of this series. In the end, it’s the players who win and lose the games, and Roberts tends to receive too much of the blame when the Dodgers lose, but in this postseason, he has managed a masterful bullpen game to beat the San Diego Padres in what might have been peak Roberts. But in Game 2 of the ALCS, he issued the ill-advised intentional walk to Francisco Lindor, setting up Mark Vientos’ grand slam. In general, walking the bases loaded is a bad idea, since there is no margin for error with the next batter. So that decision backfired in a big way. It all means Roberts has the potential to be the MVP of the series … or the goat (lower-case version).
Which lineup has impressed you most so far?
Gonzalez: Neither? The Dodgers have combined for a .658 OPS through the first two games of this series. The Mets? .639. The Dodgers are 6-for-20 with runners in scoring position, while the Mets are 4-for-15. The Dodgers have left 29 runners on base, but the Mets aren’t far behind at 24. Simply put, it’s early in this series, hitting is harder this time of year and neither team has separated itself. I think the Dodgers’ lineup is deeper and possesses more upside, but it needs some key guys to get going — primarily Will Smith, who’s 2-for-23 in the playoffs, and Shohei Ohtani, who’s 0-for-19 with the bases empty.
Doolittle: In what is a surprise to me, I’d say the Mets. The Dodgers have some guys either struggling (Will Smith, kinda-sorta Shohei Ohtani), at less than full capacity (Freddie Freeman, Gavin Lux) or on the roster more for versatility reasons than for offensive production. The Mets have a roster of hitters who go more than nine deep and can be adapted to a number of in-game pitching changes.
Schoenfield: As long as Ohtani continues to scuffle a bit, I’ll go with the Mets. They’re a little deeper one to nine and also have some options off the bench, while the Dodgers are stuck with the likes of a defensive replacement in Kevin Kiermaier and a weak-hitting utility player in Chris Taylor. The Mets do need to get something out of Jose Iglesias, who was the big surprise in the regular season (hitting .337/.381/.448) but hasn’t done much in the playoffs (.222/.263/.222).
What has surprised you most about the Dodgers so far in this series?
Gonzalez: That their bullpen strategy backfired so drastically in Game 2. It was because Alex Vesia isn’t available in this round, Daniel Hudson was unavailable for Game 2, and (mostly) because Landon Knack allowed five runs in the second inning. When the Dodgers shut out the Padres with eight relievers in Game 4 of the division series, Knack didn’t pitch until the ninth, when the game was already out of hand. Before Monday, that was the only inning he had pitched in about two weeks. The Dodgers would prefer not to use a bulk reliever for games when one of their traditional starters doesn’t take the ball. But it appears they don’t have a choice at this point. They don’t have enough arms.
Doolittle: The way Ohtani finished the season, I fully expected one of those 1.300 OPS postseasons from him that defy the challenges of facing playoff pitching. So far, that has not been the case, and at times, he has looked a little lost against breaking pitches. Othani has still had his moments, and it was a good sign that rather than getting antsy in Game 2 he still took a couple of walks. I don’t expect his uneven production to continue much longer.
Schoenfield: How much they’re suddenly relying on Enrique Hernandez as a key contributor — and might need to continue to do so. In the final two games of the NLDS and Game 1 of the NLCS, he went 5-for-11 with four runs scored, and the Dodgers won all three games.
And what about the Mets?
Gonzalez: The Mets were at times a mess on the bases and on defense early this season, then they got rolling and seemed to tighten up. But they’ve made some pretty glaring mistakes in both departments through the first couple of games in this series. They were finally starting to rally in the fifth inning of Game 1, getting back-to-back hits, but then Jesse Winker got deked by Enrique Hernandez, who threw behind him from center field and got him caught in a rundown. In the sixth inning of Game 2, they almost blew a big lead, with Jose Iglesias botching a tailor-made double-play ball and Pete Alonso failing to corral another grounder that went for a two-run single. They need to clean it up.
Doolittle: Vientos was going well during the regular season, but he has been the most impactful hitter of the playoffs overall. That trajectory has continued with his Game 2 slam. Vientos, just to remind everyone, started the season in Syracuse, partly because of a roster crunch, but also because he had real issues to work through in terms of approach. You expect shortcomings like that to be exposed in October, but Vientos has been the one exposing pitchers instead. I’m not shocked he has been good, but I’m very surprised at just how good.
Schoenfield: Not a surprise, but did Edwin Diaz finally find his fastball in the ninth inning of Game 2? Diaz has been an adventure all postseason, struggling to throw strikes, but after the first two Dodgers reached, he threw 13 consecutive fastballs and struck out Mookie Betts, Teoscar Hernandez and Freddie Freeman (getting Freeman on a slider). That version of Diaz looked unbeatable.
What is one thing each team needs to do from here to take control of this series?
Gonzalez: The Dodgers need their starting pitchers to be effective. It’ll probably be Buehler, Yamamoto and Flaherty, in that order, pitching the next three games at Citi Field. If the series shifts back to L.A., the Dodgers will have to stage a bullpen game at some point. And their preference would be to utilize only their high-leverage arms rather than someone like Knack or Brent Honeywell to take down bulk innings. That only has a chance of happening if they get production from their starting rotation. The Mets need to continue to neutralize Ohtani and Betts at the top of the order. The two of them have combined to go 3-for-15 with five walks, which isn’t terrible but also isn’t great. Given how hobbled Freeman is behind them, taming those two will be key to the Mets’ chances.
Doolittle: Baseball isn’t really a “one thing” kind of sport, but among the options, the Dodgers need the bottom of their order to get on base. It’s not that I exactly buy into the Ohtani empty-base split, but it’s certainly true that the more he and Betts hit with runners on, the higher the scores are going to be for L.A. For the Mets, it’s a matter of taking advantage of the lower tier of the L.A. playoff pitching staff. They did that in Game 2, and based on what we’ve seen this season, they have an immediate opportunity with Buehler. But the Dodgers have a lot of pitchers who are dealing, so the Mets have to make hay while they can.
Schoenfield: I’m sticking with Ohtani has to hit for the Dodgers, since it’s still likely their questionable starting pitching/bullpen games will surrender some runs. For the Mets, the starters have to pitch deep into games, given even the top Mets relievers don’t inspire a lot of confidence.
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians
Who is the two-games-in MVP of this ALCS?
Jorge Castillo: The Yankees have struggled hitting with runners in scoring position (2-for-17), but they’ve generated plenty of traffic on the basepaths, and Gleyber Torres has been a big factor there. The second baseman has reached base in five of his nine plate appearances from the leadoff spot. He has scored three of the Yankees’ 11 runs. He has been instrumental in applying early pressure, delivering a single in the first inning in Game 1 and a double in the first inning in Game 2. He was on base for Aaron Judge‘s home run in Game 2 and has done his job setting the table for Juan Soto and Judge exceptionally well. It has fueled the Yankees’ offense.
Jeff Passan: Carlos Rodón‘s dominant Game 1 outing helped the Yankees secure a lead in the series and allowed manager Aaron Boone to avoid overtaxing his best relievers ahead of Game 2. If the Yankees can win one of the next two games, Rodón will be in line to finish the series in Game 5 — and if he can manage another similar start, he’ll almost certainly get the actual award. Honorable mention goes to Juan Soto, who has the highest on-base percentage (.625) and slugging percentage (1.000) of any hitter in either LCS.
David Schoenfield: Let’s give a shout-out to the Yankees’ bullpen, which has been stellar throughout the postseason so far with three runs allowed (just two earned) in 23⅓ innings and tossed a strong 4⅔ innings to hold the lead in Game 2. Clay Holmes has found his early-season groove, Tim Hill has gotten some key lefties out, Tommy Kahnle got four outs on Tuesday and Luke Weaver has locked it down in the ninth (although he did serve up a home run to Jose Ramirez in Game 2). We always talk about a bullpen getting hot at the right time, and New York’s is hot right now.
Has Aaron Judge finally broken out?
Castillo: Who knows? Maybe the home run in Game 2 is the start of one of his trademark barrages. Maybe it’ll ease the pressure some. But it’s Aaron Judge. It was always just a matter of time before he figured things out and started clobbering baseballs again. The question was whether the Yankees could afford to wait until he did. The way this series is going, it looks like they can.
Passan: Yes. When Judge hits home runs, they tend to come in bunches, and this wasn’t some short-porch cheapie. Hunter Gaddis‘ fastball works exceptionally at the top of the zone — he had allowed only one home run off the 230 such pitches he threw in the upper-third or higher this season — and Judge turned it around in a hurry. The ball left his bat at 111.3 mph, landed 414 feet away in center field and portends the sort of run that has a chance to flip the narrative on the Yankees’ captain in the postseason.
Schoenfield: Well, it was certainly the most overanalyzed 17 at-bats in recent memory before Judge finally homered in his 18th. It does feel like his plate appearances have been improving, including a sac fly in Game 1 and another one in Game 2 prior to the home run. Now toss in the home run, and let’s just say the Guardians better be very wary of the big guy moving forward.
What do the Guardians most need to do to get back into this series?
Castillo: They need to score more runs. Five runs in two games isn’t going to cut it against a team as talented as the Yankees. And it starts with Jose Ramirez. The star third baseman was 0-for-7 with a walk before swatting a home run in the ninth inning of Game 2. He and the rest of the offense will need to do more of that. The bullpen, as good as it is, needs more support.
Passan: To start playing like themselves again. The Guardians won 92 games and the American League Central because they play a good brand of baseball. They had the second-most defensive runs saved this season — and you don’t do that by dropping popups and bobbling balls in the outfield. They had the best bullpen ERA by more than half a run — and you don’t do that by issuing five wild pitches in a playoff game. The Cleveland team of the first two games is not the Cleveland team of the 162 during the regular season or the five in the division series. The Yankees are good enough already. The Guardians’ gift-giving season needs to end now.
Schoenfield: Not make mistakes. They don’t have the firepower to overcome their shoddy play in the first two games. In Game 1, it was seven walks and five wild pitches (four of them by Joey Cantillo). In Game 2, there were a few defensive miscues, including two errors that led to two unearned runs. It’s no fun having a weapon like Emmanuel Clase in the bullpen and not being able to get the ball to him with a lead. But that has to start with cleaner baseball (oh, and getting some hits with runners in scoring position, after going 1-for-11 the first two games).
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Tisha Thompson
Federal prosecutors recommended a 57-month prison sentence Thursday for Ippei Mizuhara, the former interpreter for Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani, and released an audio recording in which they say he impersonates Ohtani in an attempt to wire money from Ohtani’s bank account.
In a separate court filing, Mizuhara’s attorney, Michael G. Freedman, said Mizuhara has suffered from a gambling addiction since he was a teenager and asked for an 18-month sentence.
Mizuhara was fired in March 2024 after an ESPN investigation uncovered he had sent millions in wire transfers from Ohtani’s account to an illegal bookmaker. He pleaded guilty to bank fraud and filing a false tax return in June, admitting that he stole nearly $17 million from Ohtani to pay off gambling debts to an illegal bookmaker. He is scheduled to be sentenced Feb. 6.
According to the prosecutors’ filing, Mizuhara called the bank and impersonated Ohtani on approximately 24 occasions in order to wire money from Ohtani’s account. In the recording, which prosecutors said was made Feb. 2, 2022, a bank employee asked Mizuhara to identify himself.
“Who am I speaking with?” the bank employee asked in the recording, which was first obtained by The Athletic.
“Shohei Ohtani,” Mizuhara replied.
Mizuhara told the bank employee that he could not log in to online banking. “I tried to make a wire transfer a couple of days ago. They told me that’s probably the reason, they transferred me to this number,” he said.
After Mizuhara recited a six-digit code she texted him for two-factor authentication, Mizuhara told her he needed to send $200,000 for a car loan.
“What is your relationship to the payee?” the agent asked.
“He’s my friend,” Mizuhara responded.
“Have you met your friend in person?” she asked.
“Yes, many times,” Mizuhara said.
“I just ask because we haven’t been able to verify the transaction,” the agent said before asking how Mizuhara received the wire information. Mizuhara told her he received it by email but later talked about it with the recipient in person.
“Will there be any future wires to your friend?” the agent asked.
“Possibly,” Mizuhara replied.
Prosecutors said the clip had been edited to redact the names of the bank and the person receiving the wires. ESPN reported in May that Mizuhara wired some of the money to the bank account of Ryan Boyajian, an associate of bookmaker Mathew Bowyer.
Prosecutors also recommended Mizuhara pay nearly $17 million in restitution to Ohtani as well as $1.1 million to the IRS.
In his filing, Freedman wrote that Mizuhara started gambling when he was 18 and visited casinos four to five times a week. At 22, he began playing online poker and betting on sports. While working for Ohtani at the Los Angeles Angels, Mizuhara’s gambling increased because of poker games hosted by other baseball players in hotel rooms, according to the filing. ESPN previously reported that Mizuhara met Bowyer at a poker game at the team hotel in San Diego in 2021.
Mizuhara placed about 19,000 bets with Bowyer over a two-year period and accumulated over $40 million in debt. Bowyer gave Mizuhara a startup credit of $20,000, Freedman wrote.
Freedman added that Mizuhara has been attending Gamblers Anonymous meetings three times a week.
Prosecutors wrote in a separate filing, however, that a gambling addiction “cannot fully explain defendant’s conduct because defendant used the stolen funds for numerous personal expenses that had nothing to do with gambling.”
“Ultimately, the government submits, the motivating factor behind defendant’s crimes was not a gambling addiction but rather greed,” prosecutors wrote.
In a letter also submitted to U.S. District Court Judge John W. Holcomb on Thursday, Mizuhara wrote that he felt like he was on call 24/7 and had almost no time off while working for Ohtani, who he first met while working as an interpreter for the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters in Japan.
“Usually when a Japanese baseball player makes the move to the United States, they would bring over multiple staff members to take care of various tasks such as a driver, trainer, chef, off the field interpreter/support member, etc. but I was the only person Shohei brought along so naturally I had to support him on most of the above mentioned tasks,” Mizuhara wrote.
The Angels, Ohtani’s first team in the U.S., initially paid Mizuhara $85,000 before increasing his salary to $250,000 in 2022, according to the prosecutors’ filing. When he moved to the Dodgers with Ohtani in 2024, his salary grew to $500,000. Ohtani also paid Mizuhara a separate salary and gave him a Porsche Cayenne, the filing states.
In his letter, Mizuhara wrote that Ohtani paid him roughly $2,500 a month from October to January and $125 to $130 a month from February to September. Mizuhara said he struggled to make ends meet because he had to live near Ohtani in California, pay for his wife’s travel between the U.S. and Japan, and rent accommodations while traveling with Ohtani to Japan in the offseason.
“All of these extra expenses were taking a huge toll on me and I was living paycheck to paycheck, I would have to borrow money from family and friends some months to make ends meet,” Mizuhara wrote.
Mizuhara added that his wife, Naomi, also helped support Ohtani. She cooked him meals, watched his dog and helped him with broken nails he suffered while pitching.
“She truly supported both Shohei and I to the best of her abilities throughout the years and she never complained through all of this as she knew my priority was to support Shohei to the best of my ability,” Mizuhara wrote.
Naomi told the judge in a separate letter that Mizuhara is her “only family” after recently losing her parents and other family members, as well as their family dog. Unable to obtain a green card until 2023, she described becoming “emotionally unstable” and developed hearing loss and alopecia areata due to stress.
“I deeply regret not being able to support him or notice his struggles during that time,” she wrote.
At the end of his letter, Mizuhara asked for mercy from the judge and apologized to Ohtani.
“Lastly, I truly admire Shohei as a baseball player and a human being and I was committed to devote my life so Shohei can be the best version of himself on the field,” Mizuhara wrote. “I want to say I am truly sorry for violating his trust in me.”
Sports
Questions on the NFL draft’s top-10 picks: What are the Titans’ early plans? Which teams need QBs?
There are just three more games in the 2024 NFL season, and then all eyes will turn to the offseason. And teams with top-10 picks in the 2025 draft — which begins on April 24 — will be studying the group of prospects closely and starting to make plans for their selections.
This draft class is highlighted by a battle between Miami’s Cam Ward and Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders for the QB1 spot, and it is expected to have more high-end defensive players — such as Penn State’s Abdul Carter — than we saw last April. The Tennessee Titans have the top pick for the first time since 2016 (when they traded it to the Los Angeles Rams), and they’ll control a lot of what happens in Round 1. But the rest of the top 10 offers intrigue, too.
We asked our NFL Nation reporters, who cover teams with top-10 picks, to answer one big question about the early selections. Are the Titans, Browns and Giants all leaning toward finding a new QB in the draft? Is Tom Brady going to help the Raiders in their own QB search? Will the Bears pick a defender for the first time since 2018? Let’s dive in.
Jump to a team:
TEN | CLE | NYG | NE | JAX
LV | NYJ | CAR | NO | CHI
After they hired new GM Mike Borgonzi, what do we know about the Titans’ early plans at No. 1?
Borgonzi played a significant role in the Chiefs’ decision to trade up for Patrick Mahomes in 2017, and he’ll have to strongly consider taking a quarterback here. Titans coach Brian Callahan will get a closer look at the top prospects during both the East-West Shrine and Senior Bowl weeks. He didn’t close the door on Will Levis returning next season, but it’s pretty clear the organization is still searching for a franchise QB.
“Well, we got one quarterback under contract [Levis],” Callahan said during his season-ending press conference. “The other two are free agents, and we’re in position to potentially draft a quarterback.”
Callahan has been through the No. 1 pick process before with the Bengals, who took Joe Burrow in 2020. President of football operations Chad Brinker told ESPN he’d like to have more than the two picks the Titans currently have in the top 100, though. Tennessee hasn’t said it’s open for business yet, but a trade out of the first pick could easily address the organization’s desire to add more draft picks. — Turron Davenport
Does Deshaun Watson reinjuring his right Achilles tendon mean the Browns will definitely go QB at No. 2, or are other options still in play?
The Browns were always going to search for quarterback options in free agency and the draft, even before Watson’s setback. But a quarterback at No. 2 isn’t a given.
Cleveland would have to love one of the top prospects, and general manager Andrew Berry has often preached a philosophy of sticking to his board and taking the best player available. He has also shown a propensity to trade back and accumulate additional picks, which is something he alluded to in his end-of-season news conference.
“With having the second pick in the draft, whether we select a player or use it to maximize in another way, it gives us an opportunity to really pivot if we need to,” Berry said. — Daniel Oyefusi
Are the Giants more likely to address their QB spot in the draft or free agency?
It may not be an either/or proposition. The Giants have made it their “No. 1 issue” this offseason to find their quarterback of the future, according to owner John Mara. Their plan entering this past season was to draft a quarterback if it didn’t work out with Daniel Jones. But the timing of it all following Jones’ release in November could dictate that the Giants address the position in both free agency and the draft.
Tommy DeVito will be their only quarterback under contract this offseason. They will likely need a strong contingency from free agency in March, just in case they can’t get a quarterback at the top of the draft. Remember, Mara made it clear the pressure is on to produce in 2025. — Jordan Raanan
Is this an obvious spot for one of the top offensive tackles in the class, or could the Patriots address other holes?
New coach Mike Vrabel acknowledged the offensive line as a top priority in his introductory news conference. “You look at the teams that are able to protect the quarterback and dictate the flow of the game offensively; making sure that up front we’re sound, we’re strong — whether that’s through free agency or the draft — that’s something that’s critical,” Vrabel said.
The Patriots have ranked last in the NFL in pass block win rate each of the past two seasons. But that doesn’t mean they will automatically pick an offensive tackle at No. 4. They need blue-chip players at other positions, such as receiver, defensive line and pass rusher. — Mike Reiss
What are the Jaguars’ biggest roster weaknesses headed into the offseason?
Everything has to do with pass defense. The safety play has been subpar and they likely won’t re-sign Andre Cisco. They need another cornerback opposite Tyson Campbell, and the pass rush — outside of defensive ends Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker — was spotty this season.
The Jaguars were last in the league in passing yards allowed per game (257.4, the third-worst mark in franchise history), picked off only six passes and gave up 23 pass plays of 30 or more yards. Hines-Allen dipped from 17.5 sacks in 2023 to eight, though Walker became the second player in franchise history to record 10 or more sacks in consecutive seasons. Moving Arik Armstead back inside may boost the interior rush, but the Jaguars need another edge rusher and to improve in coverage. — Michael DiRocco
What are you hearing on how much Tom Brady could play a role in the Raiders’ QB search?
The Raiders, who added Brady as a minority owner, need a coach and general manager before making a choice on QB1. Still, Raiders owner Mark Davis said the seven-time Super Bowl champion would indeed be involved.
“Although Tom can’t play, I think he can help us select a quarterback in the future and potentially train him as well,” Davis said in October, when Brady’s ownership stake was approved.
Of course, that brings us to the prospect with whom Brady has already been linked — Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders. In fact, it was Davis who told Sanders at a Las Vegas Aces game on Oct. 5, “Who knows, you might be home right now.” — Paul Gutierrez
Outside of quarterback, what other needs could the Jets fill with their first-round pick?
Think defense. The Jets finished 23rd in defensive EPA, which was way down from third in 2023. They will need a cornerback to pair with Sauce Gardner, assuming they lose their second option D.J. Reed in free agency. And there has been some talent drain on the once-formidable defensive line, which could use more blue-chip talent in the room other than Quinnen Williams. Edge rusher isn’t a major need, assuming defensive end Jermaine Johnson returns to form after his right Achilles tendon injury, but it would be hard to pass on an elite prospect.
The overall drafting philosophy will be shaped by the new general manager and head coach. Scheme will play an important factor in these decisions. — Rich Cimini
What do we know about whether it’s defense all the way for Carolina at No. 8?
Carolina won’t be all-in on defense with nine picks, but the top selections should be heavy on that side of the ball. General manager Dan Morgan, a former Pro Bowl linebacker, took it personally that his team ranked last in total defense (404.5 yards allowed per game) and against the run (179.8 yards allowed per game). He kept defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero, implying this was more of a personnel problem.
The offense is headed in the right direction with quarterback Bryce Young and other key players returning. So adding an edge rusher, safety help and a big run stopper will be the focus. Just don’t look for this to be a defensive sweep as it was in 2020, when Carolina became the first team in NFL history to use all of its seven draft picks on defense. It still needs an elite receiver and more depth at running back. — David Newton
With the Saints’ big needs and cap issues, is this looking like a best-player-available approach right now?
At $70.6 million over the cap in 2025 (per Roster Management System), the Saints are likely going to have to draft for need. But their biggest need is open to interpretation. They are looking for successors at defensive end and linebacker for 35-year-olds Cameron Jordan and Demario Davis, respectively. They also could use another wide receiver to slot alongside Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed, as well as permanent fixes to the offensive line.
A quarterback might be on their mind, too, depending on the wants of the Saints’ next coach. But as general manager Mickey Loomis pointed out at his end-of-season news conference, they don’t have the luxury of a top pick to do that. And Derek Carr has two years remaining on his four-year, $150 million contract. — Katherine Terrell
The Bears haven’t used a first-round pick on defense since 2018. What are the chances that streak ends in 2025?
The Bears have major needs to address in the trenches, so it’s fair to say Chicago using its first-round selection on a pass rusher is at 50%.
When asked about top defensive end Montez Sweat‘s disappointing season (5.5 sacks), general manager Ryan Poles said adding more talent is the best way to defeat the number of double-teams and chips that Sweat receives. Creating more one-on-one matchups would allow Chicago’s pass rush win rate to improve from its 37% finish in 2024, which was a slight step up from the previous season but still ranked 24th in the NFL. — Courtney Cronin
Sports
Dodgers land another star? Jays do (or don’t) extend Vlad Jr.? Bold predictions for the rest of the MLB offseason
With Roki Sasaki, Tanner Scott and Anthony Santander coming off the board recently, MLB free agency has entered the homestretch — but there are still plenty of big moves to come in the final month before spring training arrives.
Where will the top remaining free agents, including Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman, land? Will we see more blockbuster trades? And will the Toronto Blue Jays and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. reach an extension to avoid the star hitting free agency after the 2025 season?
We asked our MLB experts to go out on a limb and make a bold prediction for how this action-packed winter will wrap up.
Free agency
Jorge Castillo: Pete Alonso will re-sign with the New York Mets.
Alonso, a beloved homegrown star in Queens, remains a free agent. The Mets, with money to burn, could still use another right-handed-hitting slugger. A reunion seems almost too obvious. Add the fact that both sides are open to a three-year deal with opt-outs, according to a source, and it’s a matter of only believing it won’t happen when Alonso signs on the dotted line to play elsewhere.
Yes, the Mets have recently started spending money elsewhere (Jesse Winker and A.J. Minter). Yes, they could slide Mark Vientos across the diamond and give the third baseman job to Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio or Luisangel Acuña. Yes, Alonso is a first baseman on the wrong side of 30 with defensive limitations and little value on the basepaths. But Alonso is one of the most prolific home run hitters in baseball since debuting in 2019. He has proved he can thrive in New York City. Put him behind Juan Soto, which would give him more fastballs to devour, and Alonso will remain one of the most productive power hitters in the majors for the next three seasons.
The Mets have had a great winter, but the Dodgers have created a super team with the Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks and the San Diego Padres also fighting for National League supremacy. The competition is stiff. Maybe negotiations between the two sides have burned the bridge to a deal. But it wouldn’t take much to build another one and make it happen.
David Schoenfield: Alex Bregman to … the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Why should the Dodgers stop now? If Bregman can’t find the big deal he wants, the Dodgers might be a surprise fit. Max Muncy is a free agent after 2025 and prone to strikeouts. Hyeseong Kim‘s bat projects as more of a utility infielder than a starting second baseman. Bregman can shift between second and third in 2025 and then replace Muncy in 2026. Too much money even for the Dodgers? Not really. Between Muncy, Chris Taylor, Michael Conforto and Miguel Rojas, the Dodgers have $49.5 million coming off the books after this season (and the pitching staff is set for years).
Bradford Doolittle: Bregman will sign with the Detroit Tigers.
There are lots of reasons why this makes sense, with the exception being positional fit since Detroit added another infielder in Gleyber Torres. Nevertheless, the Tigers have the payroll space to add Bregman and his positional versatility gives the team a lot of leeway in how to use him for the duration of the contract. He could start at any of the infield spots, and Detroit could move players around Torres to make a number of configurations work. Bregman would be the perfect veteran presence for a young team at the outset of a new window of winning. His history with manager A.J. Hinch gives him a comfort zone. Bregman has to end up somewhere and this makes the most sense to me.
Trades
Alden Gonzalez: The San Diego Padres will make a blockbuster deal.
It was less than four months ago that the Padres had the Dodgers on the ropes in the NL Division Series, needing only a victory at home to eliminate L.A. once more. Since then, Padres general manager A.J. Preller has watched his hated rivals not only defeat arguably the most well-rounded team he has ever assembled but win the World Series and then proceed to sign practically every player they want — including Sasaki, the Japanese phenom Preller coveted most. As for Preller himself? January is almost over, and he has yet to add to his major league roster.
There’s no chance that continues. And because the free agent class has dwindled significantly and money remains tight in San Diego, look for Preller to swing a big trade before spring training — the type we have seen from him often. Holes remain in the Padres’ rotation and throughout their lineup. Dylan Cease, Robert Suarez, Luis Arraez and Jake Cronenworth can all be had, and the guess here is that at least one of those four will go. Preller has stood pat for far too long. It won’t continue.
Jesse Rogers: The Boston Red Sox will trade for Nolan Arenado.
After exhausting attempts to sign Bregman, the Red Sox pivot to Arenado as the St. Louis Cardinals start to exhibit a bit of desperation with the season approaching. The fit in St. Louis just isn’t right anymore and everyone knows it. The Cardinals aren’t concerned with money owed to Arenado, so they’re willing to pick up a portion of it because they want quality prospects in return. Boston can deliver that.
Eric Karabell: Arenado will be traded to the Seattle Mariners.
The Cardinals have made it clear they must move on from Arenado to install Nolan Gorman at third base. We heard rumors of the Red Sox, Blue Jays and other teams interested. We haven’t heard about the Mariners, but all they have done is sign utility man Donovan Solano. The Arenado of old might never return — at the plate, at least — but the Cardinals seem so desperate, watch them handle the bulk of his contract and leave Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto with little choice. Arenado is coming off one of his worst seasons, but this Mariners lineup could use even league average hitters at this point.
Vlad Jr.’s future in Toronto
Paul Hembekides: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will turn down a $400 million extension with the Blue Jays.
Feb. 18. That is Toronto’s first full-squad workout, and more importantly, the self-imposed deadline for extension talks between Vlad Jr. and the organization.
Guerrero, who turns 26 on March 16, is entering his walk year at an opportune time — he slashed .323/.396/.544 (166 OPS+) in 2024, which propelled him to a sixth-place American League MVP finish. The Blue Jays must pay up to retain their homegrown star — they’ll offer him a $400 million extension within the next month, but he’ll reject their overtures and chase free agency instead.
Kiley McDaniel: Toronto will reach an extension with Guerrero.
It’s obviously easier to predict something won’t happen — such as Vlad Jr. looking to test the market next winter or holding out for a better offer from Toronto — than predicting a deal being struck. That said, Toronto needs to make a big move, and after Shohei Ohtani, Soto and Sasaki weren’t that move, the heat is on.
Extending Vlad Jr. is the move the Jays can make as their headline move of the offseason. The longer they wait, the more likely it is that a team with a different economic reality jumps in next winter to top what Toronto can exclusively offer now. The price is a question — I’d think to start at Rafael Devers‘ 10-year, $313.5 million extension from two years ago and adjust for inflation. Regardless, it’s an AAV the Jays can stomach — and it’s a franchise move they need to make as soon as possible.
Off-the-field drama
Buster Olney: Players will start to complain about having to play in a minor league park.
Remember how last year the quality of the uniforms suddenly became a really big deal, and we started to hear a lot from players about that? Well, at some point in the next two months, the fact that the Athletics will be playing in a minor league park is going to become a thing. Players will soon be face-to-face with the reality that they’ll be playing in Sacramento — in a park with one-third the capacity of a stadium like Tropicana Field, with an average July temperature of 95 degrees — and the commentary will begin and roll all the way through the regular season. As with the uniforms: It’ll be a disgrace.
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