ALCS preview: Yanks one game away from the pennant
After two thrilling matchups in Cleveland, the New York Yankees are one win away from their first World Series since 2009. The Yankees took two fairly routine games in the Bronx to start this series, but the Cleveland Guardians roared back at Progressive Field: After a shocking walkoff victory on Thursday, the Guardians clawed back from an early deficit to tie the Yankees on Friday but couldn’t hold on in the ninth.
Can the Yankees seal their spot? Will the Guardians push this series back to the Bronx? We have you covered with pregame predictions, live updates and analysis, followed by our takeaways after the final pitch.
New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians, 8:08 p.m. ET
Pitching matchup: Tanner Bibee (0-1, 3.60 ERA) vs. Carlos Rodon (1-1, 4.66)
What do the Yankees need to do to seal their spot in the World Series?
Jorge Castillo: A solid start from Rodon, for starters. Rodon was excellent in Game 1, holding the Guardians to one run over six innings. He collected nine strikeouts and generated 25 whiffs. Most importantly, he controlled his emotions. He acknowledged that was a problem in his ALDS start against the Kansas City Royals. He has said he learned from that experience, and he’ll need to carry that lesson on to the road for the first time this postseason.
Bradford Doolittle: The Yankees are a more talented team so while there isn’t any one thing that needs to happen, their ideal formula remains the same: grab an early lead to put the Guardians in a reactive mode, rather than falling into the web of their bullpen when it has a lead to protect. Bibee didn’t fare well in his Game 2 outing and is working on three days’ rest for the first time since his college days. New York can take the air completely out of the Guardians’ balloon with a couple of early runs.
Buster Olney: Just continue to swing big with a lineup built on power. Recently, Giancarlo Stanton has been taking early batting practice on the field off a pitching machine, to see the ball, to see spin — sliders away — and in this round, Aaron Judge joined him on the field. The way Stanton and Judge are going, maybe all of the Yankees will start doing this.
What do the Guardians need to do to stay alive?
Castillo: How about building a comfortable lead against Rodon and staying away from their A-side bullpen? Another close game would mean more stress on their best relievers. We’ve already seen Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith falter. Rodon was dominant in Game 1, but the Guardians were one of the best teams in baseball against left-handed pitchers during the regular season. They beat Tarik Skubal, the best starter in the majors and a left-hander, in Game 5 of the ALDS. They are capable of putting up a crooked number or two early.
Doolittle: For Cleveland, it’s the reverse of the Yankees’ plan — and that means Bibee has to come out on point. He seemed rankled over his short outing the first time out, though his numbers wouldn’t have justified a longer leash. A chip on one’s shoulder isn’t always the worst thing in a competitive situation, so if he can string together a few zeros and the Guardians can scratch out a run, then they can get to their bullpen. Getting that run will be the hard part if Jose Ramirez and/or Josh Naylor can’t put together a big game at last.
Olney: Their relievers have to get back to being dominant, because this was the backbone of the Guardians all season long. During the regular season, Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith faced 559 batters and gave up a total of three homers — and over Games 3 and 4, Clase and Smith gave up three homers to Giancarlo Stanton (2) and Aaron Judge (1). Given the lack of depth in the Cleveland rotation, the Guardians cannot win without excellence from their bullpen.
What has been the most impressive performance for you so far?
Castillo: Since Brad and Buster are about to sing Stanton’s praises, I’ll go with Gleyber Torres. The Yankees’ leadoff hitter has reached base in the first inning in all four games and in seven of the team’s eight postseason games. He singled in Game 1, doubled in Game 2, walked in Game 3, and singled in Game 4. Juan Soto followed that single in Game 4 with a two-run home run to give New York a quick lead. The Yankees have otherwise, for the most part, squandered early scoring opportunities. But Torres has maintained the pressure.
Doolittle: Giancarlo Stanton, without a doubt. Cade Smith doesn’t give up homers. This version of Stanton took him deep. Emmanual Clase doesn’t give up homers. This version of Stanton took him deep. He has plugged the gap opened up by Judge’s production shortfall.
Olney: Stanton has had so many ups and downs in his time with the Yankees, so many injuries, so many waves of talk-show callers begging for the organization to eat his contract and move on. But in the postseason, his performances have been almost uniformly excellent, and in this series, he’s doing his damage against great pitchers. With his home run in Game 4, he tied Babe Ruth and Aaron Judge in career postseason homers; his slugging percentage in the playoffs is over .650. Remarkable.
Who wins tomorrow — and who wins the series?
Castillo: I picked the Yankees in six games so I’ll stick with that. The Guardians find some success against Carlos Rodon in their second try to hold on to hop on a flight to New York for Game 6 on Monday.
Doolittle: Cleveland wins a low-scoring Game 5, sending the series back to Yankee Stadium. But I still think New York will win the series. The Guardians have been resilient in an October when that descriptor has become a buzzword. That will earn them one more game.
Olney: Think of Tanner Bibee as the Guardian wearing a headlamp, because he is the only player on this team in a position to lead them out of this 3-1 mess. He needs to pitch great and he needs to give them at least five or six innings — and he showed in the regular season he’s capable of doing that. But Soto, Judge and Stanton are all fully activated now, and I’ll be surprised if the Guardians extend this series to six games.
Live updates
Tune in at game time for live updates and analysis of Game 5.
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Bill Connelly
The 2025 College Football Playoff got underway in Norman, Oklahoma, on Friday night, and we’ve already seen a first. After all four home teams won by demonstrative margins in last year’s first round, Alabama became the first road team to prevail in a playoff game with a stirring comeback against Oklahoma and a 34-24 win.
Here are the main takeaways. We will update this with each completed game.
What just happened?
Oklahoma’s offense only had 20 minutes in it. The Sooners were perfect out of the gate, bursting to a 17-0 lead against an Alabama team that looked completely unprepared for the moment. But the Crimson Tide adjusted and rallied, and OU had only a brief answer. From 17 down, Bama outscored its hosts by a 34-7 margin from there.
We use the word “momentum” far too much in football, but this was an extremely momentum-based game.
1. Over the first 19 minutes, Oklahoma went up 17-0 while outgaining Bama by a stunning 181-12 margin. It could have been worse, too, as the Sooners’ Owen Heinecke came within millimeters of a blocked punt that might have produced a safety or a touchdown.
2. Over the next 21 minutes, Bama outscored the Sooners 27-0, outgaining them, 194-59. Freshman Lotzeir Brooks caught two touchdown passes — the first on a fourth-and-2 to finally get Bama on the board (after he caught a huge third-down pass earlier in the drive), and the second TD came on a 30-yard lob that put the Tide up for good. The Tide defense got pressure on John Mateer, and his footwork and composure vanished. An egregious pick-six thrown directly to Zabien Brown tied the game, and Bama scored the first 10 points of the second half as well.
0:58
Zabien Brown stuns OU with game-tying pick-six before halftime
Zabien Brown takes a big-time interception 50 yards to the house to tie the score before halftime.
OU responded briefly, cutting the margin to three points early in the fourth quarter thanks to a 37-yard Deion Burks touchdown. But the Sooners’ offense couldn’t do enough, and kicker Tate Sandell, the Groza Award winner, missed two late field goals to assure a Bama win.
1:25
Tate Sandell’s back-to-back FG misses help Alabama secure 1st-round win
Tate Sandell misses a pair of late field goals as Alabama holds on to beat Oklahoma 34-24 in the CFP first round.
Impact plays
Oklahoma beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa in November — in the game that eventually certified the Sooners’ CFP bid — thanks to a pick-six and special teams dominance. But the tables turned completely in Norman. Brown’s pick six was huge, and special teams completely abandoned the Sooners, both with Sandell’s misses and with a botched punt in the second quarter.
The botched punt was actually the second of a two-part sequence that turned the game against the Sooners. First, Mateer passed up an easy third-and-3 conversion to throw downfield to a wide open Xavier Robinson, but he short-armed the pass and dropped it. On the very next snap, punter Grayson Miller dropped the ball moving into his punting motion. Bama’s Tim Keenan III recovered the ball at the OU 30, and while OU’s defense held the Tide to a field goal, what could have been a 24-3 OU lead turned instead into a 17-10 advantage. That set the table for Brown’s pick-six and everything that followed.
The blown early lead leaves Oklahoma with quite the ignominious feat: In the history of the College Football Playoff, teams are 28-2 with a 17-point lead: OU is 0-2, and everyone else is 28-0. Ouch.
See you next fall, Sooners
We knew that whenever Oklahoma’s season ended, offense would be the primary reason. The Sooners survived playing with almost no margin for error for most of the year. Their No. 49 ranking in offensive SP+ was the worst of any CFP team, but they got enough defense (third in defensive SP+), special teams (21st in special teams SP+) and quality red zone play to overcome it.
The Sooners’ defense still played well on Friday night — Bama gained only 260 total yards (4.8 per play) — but the special teams miscues put more pressure on the offense to come through, and after a brilliant start, it ran out of steam. Mateer began the game 10-for-15 for 132 yards with a touchdown, 26 rushing yards and a rushing TD, but his last 31 pass attempts gained just 149 yards with five sacks and the pick, and his last nine non-sack rushes gained just 15 yards.
Brent Venables therefore heads into the offseason with some decisions to make. OU’s offense technically improved after the big-money additions of coordinator Ben Arbuckle and Mateer, but Mateer was scattershot before his midseason hand injury and poor after it. Do the Sooners run it back with the same roster core, hoping that better health and a theoretically improved run game can give the defense what it needs to take OU to the next level? Does Venables hit the reset button again? Can he ever get all the arrows pointed in the right direction at the same time?
What’s next
Alabama’s reward for the comeback win is a trip out West: The Tide will meet unbeaten and top-seeded Indiana in the Rose Bowl on January 1. Bama’s defense will obviously face a stiffer test from Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza and the Hoosiers attack, but Bama’s defense has been mostly up for the test this season. Their ability to pull an upset will be determined by Ty Simpson and the Alabama passing game.
Simpson began Friday night’s win just 2-for-6 with a sack, and while he improved from there and didn’t throw any interceptions — his final passing line: 18-for-29 for 232 yards, two touchdowns and four sacks (6.0 yards per attempt) — his footwork still betrayed him quite a bit over the course of the evening, and he misfired on quite a few passes. Oklahoma’s pass rush is fearsome, but Indiana’s defense ranks seventh in sack rate itself, and with almost no blitzing whatsoever. The Hoosiers generate pressure and clog passing lanes, and they held Oregon‘s Dante Moore and Ohio State‘s Julian Sayin to 5.1 yards per dropback with 11 sacks and two touchdowns to three picks. Bama will be an underdog for a reason.
That said, kudos to the Tide for getting off the mat. They were lifeless at the start, missing tackles and blocks and looking as unprepared as they did in their season-opening loss to Florida State. But Brooks’ play-making lit the fuse, and Bama charged back.
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