ALCS preview: Yanks one game away from the pennant
After two thrilling matchups in Cleveland, the New York Yankees are one win away from their first World Series since 2009. The Yankees took two fairly routine games in the Bronx to start this series, but the Cleveland Guardians roared back at Progressive Field: After a shocking walkoff victory on Thursday, the Guardians clawed back from an early deficit to tie the Yankees on Friday but couldn’t hold on in the ninth.
Can the Yankees seal their spot? Will the Guardians push this series back to the Bronx? We have you covered with pregame predictions, live updates and analysis, followed by our takeaways after the final pitch.
New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians, 8:08 p.m. ET
Pitching matchup: Tanner Bibee (0-1, 3.60 ERA) vs. Carlos Rodon (1-1, 4.66)
What do the Yankees need to do to seal their spot in the World Series?
Jorge Castillo: A solid start from Rodon, for starters. Rodon was excellent in Game 1, holding the Guardians to one run over six innings. He collected nine strikeouts and generated 25 whiffs. Most importantly, he controlled his emotions. He acknowledged that was a problem in his ALDS start against the Kansas City Royals. He has said he learned from that experience, and he’ll need to carry that lesson on to the road for the first time this postseason.
Bradford Doolittle: The Yankees are a more talented team so while there isn’t any one thing that needs to happen, their ideal formula remains the same: grab an early lead to put the Guardians in a reactive mode, rather than falling into the web of their bullpen when it has a lead to protect. Bibee didn’t fare well in his Game 2 outing and is working on three days’ rest for the first time since his college days. New York can take the air completely out of the Guardians’ balloon with a couple of early runs.
Buster Olney: Just continue to swing big with a lineup built on power. Recently, Giancarlo Stanton has been taking early batting practice on the field off a pitching machine, to see the ball, to see spin — sliders away — and in this round, Aaron Judge joined him on the field. The way Stanton and Judge are going, maybe all of the Yankees will start doing this.
What do the Guardians need to do to stay alive?
Castillo: How about building a comfortable lead against Rodon and staying away from their A-side bullpen? Another close game would mean more stress on their best relievers. We’ve already seen Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith falter. Rodon was dominant in Game 1, but the Guardians were one of the best teams in baseball against left-handed pitchers during the regular season. They beat Tarik Skubal, the best starter in the majors and a left-hander, in Game 5 of the ALDS. They are capable of putting up a crooked number or two early.
Doolittle: For Cleveland, it’s the reverse of the Yankees’ plan — and that means Bibee has to come out on point. He seemed rankled over his short outing the first time out, though his numbers wouldn’t have justified a longer leash. A chip on one’s shoulder isn’t always the worst thing in a competitive situation, so if he can string together a few zeros and the Guardians can scratch out a run, then they can get to their bullpen. Getting that run will be the hard part if Jose Ramirez and/or Josh Naylor can’t put together a big game at last.
Olney: Their relievers have to get back to being dominant, because this was the backbone of the Guardians all season long. During the regular season, Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith faced 559 batters and gave up a total of three homers — and over Games 3 and 4, Clase and Smith gave up three homers to Giancarlo Stanton (2) and Aaron Judge (1). Given the lack of depth in the Cleveland rotation, the Guardians cannot win without excellence from their bullpen.
What has been the most impressive performance for you so far?
Castillo: Since Brad and Buster are about to sing Stanton’s praises, I’ll go with Gleyber Torres. The Yankees’ leadoff hitter has reached base in the first inning in all four games and in seven of the team’s eight postseason games. He singled in Game 1, doubled in Game 2, walked in Game 3, and singled in Game 4. Juan Soto followed that single in Game 4 with a two-run home run to give New York a quick lead. The Yankees have otherwise, for the most part, squandered early scoring opportunities. But Torres has maintained the pressure.
Doolittle: Giancarlo Stanton, without a doubt. Cade Smith doesn’t give up homers. This version of Stanton took him deep. Emmanual Clase doesn’t give up homers. This version of Stanton took him deep. He has plugged the gap opened up by Judge’s production shortfall.
Olney: Stanton has had so many ups and downs in his time with the Yankees, so many injuries, so many waves of talk-show callers begging for the organization to eat his contract and move on. But in the postseason, his performances have been almost uniformly excellent, and in this series, he’s doing his damage against great pitchers. With his home run in Game 4, he tied Babe Ruth and Aaron Judge in career postseason homers; his slugging percentage in the playoffs is over .650. Remarkable.
Who wins tomorrow — and who wins the series?
Castillo: I picked the Yankees in six games so I’ll stick with that. The Guardians find some success against Carlos Rodon in their second try to hold on to hop on a flight to New York for Game 6 on Monday.
Doolittle: Cleveland wins a low-scoring Game 5, sending the series back to Yankee Stadium. But I still think New York will win the series. The Guardians have been resilient in an October when that descriptor has become a buzzword. That will earn them one more game.
Olney: Think of Tanner Bibee as the Guardian wearing a headlamp, because he is the only player on this team in a position to lead them out of this 3-1 mess. He needs to pitch great and he needs to give them at least five or six innings — and he showed in the regular season he’s capable of doing that. But Soto, Judge and Stanton are all fully activated now, and I’ll be surprised if the Guardians extend this series to six games.
Live updates
Tune in at game time for live updates and analysis of Game 5.
The 150th running of the Preakness won’t have the fanfare of previous years.
There will be no Triple Crown on the line and no rematch of the 1-2 finishers in the Kentucky Derby after trainer Bill Mott elected to point Sovereignty toward the Belmont and bypass the Preakness.
Just three horses who ran in the Kentucky Derby will run in the Preakness on Saturday — Journalism, who finished second to Sovereignty, American Promise (16th) and Sandman (seventh). Nine horses will enter the race, including several newcomers to the Triple Crown trail.
Top storylines
While a Kentucky Derby winner skipping the Preakness is a rarity over the history of the race, it’s become more common in recent years. Country House, who won the 2019 Kentucky Derby after Maximum Security was disqualified, was not entered into the race by Mott due to a cough. Other ailments ended his career early and he never raced again.
Rich Strike was not entered in the 2022 Preakness and neither was 2021 winner Mandaloun, who was not declared the official winner of the Kentucky Derby until Medina Spirit was officially disqualified after failing a postrace drug test.
The modern order of the Triple Crown races, with the Kentucky Derby first and the Belmont last, was established permanently in 1932, with some exceptions. Notable Kentucky Derby winners who skipped the second leg are: Grindstone (1996, career-ending injury), Spend a Buck (1985), Gato Del Sol (1982), Tomy Lee (1959), Swaps (1955), Determine (1954), Hill Gail (1952), Count Turf (1951) and Lawrin (1938).
This will be the final Preakness run at Pimlico for several years, as the 155-year-old track is set to undergo renovations for the next several years, including the replacement of the current grandstand for a smaller version. The Preakness will move to Laurel Park until renovations are complete.
Betting the Preakness
by Katherine Terrell
What’s the big draw now that the Kentucky Derby winner is out of the race? Journalism, who went off as the betting favorite in the race, gets a chance for redemption.
While putting Journalism on top of our Kentucky Derby bets didn’t quite pan out, he’s certainly going to be a worthy, and heavy, favorite in this race. Don’t take his second-place finish as a knock on his talent — he’s the most accomplished horse in this field.
What about Sandman, who drew significant attention in the Kentucky Derby due to his name? Sandman was named after the Metallica Song “Enter Sandman,” and the band recently posted a video cheering him on ahead of the Preakness.
Sandman’s trainer Mark Casse said the horse had tender feet going into his last race, causing him to sport glue-on shoes, but he has since been switched back to normal horseshoes. Sandman is a closer, meaning he would need a fast pace up front to be able to pass tiring horses and win this race.
Some of the more intriguing newcomers are Goal Oriented, trained by Bob Baffert and Steve Asmussen trainee Clever Again. Both are lightly raced, and bettors who are looking for better odds than Journalism provides might hope one of these two horses takes a step forward.
That’s the same situation as Gosger, who is 20-1 on the morning line but recently won the Grade III Lexington Stakes. He will also have to take a step forward or hope Journalism runs poorly off two weeks rest.
Journalism can sit back off the pace and hope the leaders get into a speed duel, a possibility with a lot of speed in the race. Either way, he’ll be a tough favorite to bet.
About the above chart: A Beyer number is a ratings system for speed during races. Some think horses need at least one race where they run a 95 Beyer number or over to be competitive in the Derby. Many of these horses have races where they’ve run over a 100 Beyer number or better.
The logical bet: Journalism to win (8-5) but will require a large bet to get a decent return.
The slightly better odds bet: Clever Again to win (5-1)
Two suggested bets:
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Exacta box: Journalism/Clever Again
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Trifecta: Journalism over Clever Again over River Thames, Gosger.
Best plays
by Anita Marks
No. 2 Journalism (8-5) is favored and rightfully so. He ran a great race in the Derby, but Sovereignty was just the better horse that day. With such a small field (nine horses), along with his pedigree, Journalism should dominate.
Other horses I fancy in the Preakness:
Clever Again (5-1) is a unique animal with a lot of talent. I believe he is the second-best horse in the race. Son of American Pharaoh — who won the Triple Crown — and trained by Steve Asmussen, an excellent trainer. He is super fast, is in great form and is training well.
Goal Oriented (6-1): A Bob Baffert horse. and will have one of the best jockeys on his back in Flavien Prat. He has the speed to come out of the No. 1 post and will be sent hard. Son of Not This Time and was the winner of a 1 1/16-mile race on the Kentucky Derby undercard. This will be his third race.
Preakness Plays:
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To win or place: Clever Again
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Exacta box: Goal Oriented, Journalism, Clever Again
After building a 2-0 lead on the Florida Panthers in their second-round series, the Toronto Maple Leafs are now down 3-2 leading into Friday’s Game 6 (8 p.m. ET, TNT).
Will this be the final game of the Maple Leafs’ season? Or will they force a Game 7 on Sunday?
Read on for game previews with statistical insights from ESPN Research, a recap of what went down in Thursday’s games and the three stars of Thursday from Arda Öcal.
Matchup notes
Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers
Game 6 | 8 p.m. ET | TNT
With the Panthers up 3-2 in the series, ESPN BET now lists them as -800 to win this series, with the Maple Leafs at +500. Florida’s Stanley Cup odds are now +300, while Toronto’s are +2500.
The Panthers are 5-1 all time when leading 3-2 in a seven-game series. The only loss came in the 2012 playoffs against the Devils. The Maple Leafs are 6-18 all time when trailing a series 3-2.
In Game 5, 14 different Panthers registered points, which is the most players to do so in a single playoff game in franchise history. Florida has had 17 different players score a goal this postseason, which breaks a single-postseason franchise record set in 1996.
With his fourth multipoint game of the playoffs, the Panthers’ Sam Reinhart is one of six players to hit that benchmark in the 2025 playoffs.
The Panthers have not trailed for 170:10 of game time since Carter Verhaeghe‘s tying goal 5:17 into the second period of Game 3.
Toronto’s Auston Matthews has zero goals in his past five games, which ties the longest goalless drought of his playoff career (other occurrences were in 2021 and 2023).
Leafs goaltender Anthony Stolarz is likely out for Game 6, turning the crease back over to Joseph Woll, who gave up five goals on 25 shots in Game 5.
Öcal’s three stars from Thursday
The likely Vezina Trophy winner made 22 saves in a 4-0 win, which is his second straight home shutout in this series.
Scheifele scored the opening goal in Game 5 and added an assist on Nikolaj Ehlers‘ power-play goal in the second. He now has three goals in potential elimination games, which is the most in Thrashers/Jets 2.0 franchise history.
Andersen has been great for the Canes. He gave up just one goal on 19 shots in the series-clinching win over the Capitals, and allowed just six goals total in the Hurricanes’ five games against Washington.
Thursday’s recaps
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Washington Capitals 1
CAR wins 4-1, plays winner of TOR-FLA
With a spot in the Eastern Conference finals on the line for Carolina — and a continuation to at least Game 6 the motivation for the Capitals — the two teams battled in an inspired contest. Canes captain Jordan Staal got on the board first, but Washington’s Anthony Beauvillier answered four minutes later. The teams remained tied 1-1 until less than two minutes remaining when Andrei Svechnikov fired one past Logan Thompson. With the net empty, the Caps could not get the equalizer, and Seth Jarvis sealed the deal with an empty-netter with 27 seconds to play. Carolina now awaits the winner of Maple Leafs-Panthers in the conference finals. Full recap.
0:38
Seth Jarvis’ goal secures series win for Canes
Seth Jarvis notches a clutch goal to to secure the series win over the Capitals.
Winnipeg Jets 4, Dallas Stars 0
DAL leads 3-2 | Game 6 Saturday
Needing a win to remain alive, the Jets got an emphatic one, backstopped by a 22-save shutout by Connor Hellebuyck. Mark Scheifele got Winnipeg on the board first, with his fourth goal of the playoffs at 6:17 of the second period. Nikolaj Ehlers added a power-play tally 2:20 into the third, with Vladislav Namestnikov joining the party at 12:07. With the net empty for Dallas, Ehlers added an empty-netter to cap things off and send Winnipeg fans home happy. Dallas has another chance to finish the series off at home Saturday — if not, Game 7 will be Monday, back in Winnipeg. Full recap.
0:42
Nikolaj Ehlers’ empty-netter secures Game 5 for the Jets
Nikolaj Ehlers scores the game-sealing empty-netter to secure the Game 5 win for the Jets over the Stars.
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