After two thrilling matchups in Cleveland, the New York Yankees are one win away from their first World Series since 2009. The Yankees took two fairly routine games in the Bronx to start this series, but the Cleveland Guardians roared back at Progressive Field: After a shocking walkoff victory on Thursday, the Guardians clawed back from an early deficit to tie the Yankees on Friday but couldn’t hold on in the ninth.
Can the Yankees seal their spot? Will the Guardians push this series back to the Bronx? We have you covered with pregame predictions, live updates and analysis, followed by our takeaways after the final pitch.
New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians, 8:08 p.m. ET
What do the Yankees need to do to seal their spot in the World Series?
Jorge Castillo: A solid start from Rodon, for starters. Rodon was excellent in Game 1, holding the Guardians to one run over six innings. He collected nine strikeouts and generated 25 whiffs. Most importantly, he controlled his emotions. He acknowledged that was a problem in his ALDS start against the Kansas City Royals. He has said he learned from that experience, and he’ll need to carry that lesson on to the road for the first time this postseason.
Bradford Doolittle: The Yankees are a more talented team so while there isn’t any one thing that needs to happen, their ideal formula remains the same: grab an early lead to put the Guardians in a reactive mode, rather than falling into the web of their bullpen when it has a lead to protect. Bibee didn’t fare well in his Game 2 outing and is working on three days’ rest for the first time since his college days. New York can take the air completely out of the Guardians’ balloon with a couple of early runs.
Buster Olney: Just continue to swing big with a lineup built on power. Recently, Giancarlo Stanton has been taking early batting practice on the field off a pitching machine, to see the ball, to see spin — sliders away — and in this round, Aaron Judge joined him on the field. The way Stanton and Judge are going, maybe all of the Yankees will start doing this.
What do the Guardians need to do to stay alive?
Castillo: How about building a comfortable lead against Rodon and staying away from their A-side bullpen? Another close game would mean more stress on their best relievers. We’ve already seen Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith falter. Rodon was dominant in Game 1, but the Guardians were one of the best teams in baseball against left-handed pitchers during the regular season. They beat Tarik Skubal, the best starter in the majors and a left-hander, in Game 5 of the ALDS. They are capable of putting up a crooked number or two early.
Doolittle: For Cleveland, it’s the reverse of the Yankees’ plan — and that means Bibee has to come out on point. He seemed rankled over his short outing the first time out, though his numbers wouldn’t have justified a longer leash. A chip on one’s shoulder isn’t always the worst thing in a competitive situation, so if he can string together a few zeros and the Guardians can scratch out a run, then they can get to their bullpen. Getting that run will be the hard part if Jose Ramirez and/or Josh Naylor can’t put together a big game at last.
Olney: Their relievers have to get back to being dominant, because this was the backbone of the Guardians all season long. During the regular season, Emmanuel Clase and Cade Smith faced 559 batters and gave up a total of three homers — and over Games 3 and 4, Clase and Smith gave up three homers to Giancarlo Stanton (2) and Aaron Judge (1). Given the lack of depth in the Cleveland rotation, the Guardians cannot win without excellence from their bullpen.
What has been the most impressive performance for you so far?
Castillo: Since Brad and Buster are about to sing Stanton’s praises, I’ll go with Gleyber Torres. The Yankees’ leadoff hitter has reached base in the first inning in all four games and in seven of the team’s eight postseason games. He singled in Game 1, doubled in Game 2, walked in Game 3, and singled in Game 4. Juan Soto followed that single in Game 4 with a two-run home run to give New York a quick lead. The Yankees have otherwise, for the most part, squandered early scoring opportunities. But Torres has maintained the pressure.
Doolittle: Giancarlo Stanton, without a doubt. Cade Smith doesn’t give up homers. This version of Stanton took him deep. Emmanual Clase doesn’t give up homers. This version of Stanton took him deep. He has plugged the gap opened up by Judge’s production shortfall.
Olney: Stanton has had so many ups and downs in his time with the Yankees, so many injuries, so many waves of talk-show callers begging for the organization to eat his contract and move on. But in the postseason, his performances have been almost uniformly excellent, and in this series, he’s doing his damage against great pitchers. With his home run in Game 4, he tied Babe Ruth and Aaron Judge in career postseason homers; his slugging percentage in the playoffs is over .650. Remarkable.
Who wins tomorrow — and who wins the series?
Castillo: I picked the Yankees in six games so I’ll stick with that. The Guardians find some success against Carlos Rodon in their second try to hold on to hop on a flight to New York for Game 6 on Monday.
Doolittle: Cleveland wins a low-scoring Game 5, sending the series back to Yankee Stadium. But I still think New York will win the series. The Guardians have been resilient in an October when that descriptor has become a buzzword. That will earn them one more game.
Olney: Think of Tanner Bibee as the Guardian wearing a headlamp, because he is the only player on this team in a position to lead them out of this 3-1 mess. He needs to pitch great and he needs to give them at least five or six innings — and he showed in the regular season he’s capable of doing that. But Soto, Judge and Stanton are all fully activated now, and I’ll be surprised if the Guardians extend this series to six games.
Live updates
Tune in at game time for live updates and analysis of Game 5.
It’s a new era for the College Football Playoff, with the field growing from four to 12 this season. That means three times as many programs will gain entry, but, beginning with Tuesday’s initial playoff rankings, there’s three times as much room for outrage, too.
Under the old rules, there was a simple line of demarcation that separated the elated from the angry: Who’s in?
Now, there are so many more reasons for nitpicking the committee’s decisions, from first-round byes to hosting a home game to whether your supposedly meaningful conference has been eclipsed by teams from the Group of 5.
And if the first rankings are any indication, it’s going to be a fun year for fury. There’s little logic to be taken from the initial top 25 beyond the committee’s clear love for the Big Ten. Penn State and Indiana make the top eight despite having only one win combined over an ESPN FPI top-40 team (Penn State over Iowa). That Ohio State checks in at No. 2 ahead of Georgia is the most inexplicable decision involving Georgia since Charlie Daniels suggested the devil lost that fiddle contest. Oregon is a reasonable No. 1, but the Ducks still came within a breath of losing to Boise State. Indeed, the Big Ten’s nonconference record against the Power 4 this season is 6-8, just a tick better than the ACC and well behind the SEC’s mark of 10-6.
But this is the fun of early November rankings. The committee is still finding its footing, figuring out what to prioritize and what to ignore, what’s signal and what’s noise. And that’s where the outrage really helps. It’s certainly not signal, but it can be a really loud noise.
This week’s Anger Index:
There are only two possible explanations for BYU’s treatment in this initial ranking. The first is that the committee members are too sleepy to watch games beyond the Central time zone. The second, and frankly, less rational one, is they simply didn’t do much homework.
It’s certainly possible the committee members are so enthralled with metrics such as the FPI (where BYU ranks 28th) or SP+ (22nd) that they’ve determined the Cougars’ actual record isn’t as important. This is incredibly foolish. The FPI and SP+ certainly have their value, but they’re probabilistic metrics, designed to gauge the likelihood of future success. They’re in no way a ranking of actual results. (That’s why USC is still No. 17 in the FPI, despite Lincoln Riley spending his days wistfully scrolling through old pictures of Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray and wondering if Oklahoma might want to get back together.)
To look at actual results paints a clear picture.
BYU (No. 4) has a better strength of record than Ohio State (No. 5), has played roughly the same quality schedule as Texas and has two wins against other teams ranked in the committee’s top 25 — as many as Ohio State, Texas, Penn State, Tennessee and Indiana (all ranked ahead of the Cougars) combined.
Indiana’s rags-to-riches story is wonderful, of course, but how can the committee compare what BYU has done (wins over SMU and Kansas State) against Indiana’s 103rd-ranked strength of schedule?
And this particular snub has significant effects. The difference between No. 8 and No. 9 is a home game in the first round, of course, though as a potential conference champion, that’s a moot point. But what if BYU loses a game — perhaps the Big 12 title game? That could not only doom the Cougars from getting a first-round bye, but it could quite likely set up a scenario in which the Big 12 is shuffled outside the top four conferences entirely, passed by upstart Boise State.
What’s clear from this first round of rankings is the committee absolutely loves the Big Ten — with four teams ranked ahead of a subjectively more accomplished BYU team — and the Big 12 is going to face some serious headwinds.
There’s a great, though little watched, TV show from the 2010s called “Rectify,” about a man who escapes death row after new evidence is found, only to be constantly harassed by the same system that fraudulently locked him away for 20 years. This is basically the story of SMU.
Let’s do a quick blind résumé here.
Team A: 8-1 record, No. 13 strength of record, two wins vs. ranked opponents, loss to SP+ No. 22, .578 opponent win percentage
Team B: 7-1 record, No. 15 strength of record, two wins vs. ranked opponents, loss to SP+ No. 91, .567 opponent win percentage
OK, you probably guessed Team A is SMU. The Mustangs have wins against Louisville and Pitt — both relatively emphatic — and their lone loss came to No. 9 BYU, which came before a quarterback change and included five red zone drives that amounted to only six total points.
Team B? That’s Notre Dame. The Irish have the worst loss by far (to Northern Illinois) of any team in the top 25, beat a common opponent by the same score (though, while SMU outgained Louisville by 20 yards, the Cardinals actually outgained Notre Dame by 115) and have played one fewer game.
The difference? SMU has the stigma — of the death penalty, of the upstart program new to the Power 4, of being unworthy. Notre Dame is the big brand, and that results in being ranked three spots higher and, if the playoff were held today, getting in, while the Mustangs are left out.
There are three two-loss SEC teams ranked ahead of Ole Miss, which seems to be a perfectly reasonable consensus if you look at the AP poll, too. But are we sure that’s so reasonable?
Two stats we like to look at to measure a team’s quality are success rate (how often does a team make a play that improves its odds of winning) and explosiveness. Measure the differentials in each between offense and defense, then plot those out, and you’ll get a pretty clear look of who’s truly dominant in college football this season.
Explosive Play differential vs. Successful Play differential
Auburn & Ark make no sense Iowa & Iowa St are twinsies! Is Ole Miss undervalued? pic.twitter.com/h87SKCdOtr
That outer band that features Penn State, Texas, Miami, Ohio State and Indiana (and notably, not Oregon, Alabama, LSU or Texas A&M)? That’s where Ole Miss lives.
The Rebels have two losses this season, each by three points, both in games they outgained the winning team. They lost to LSU on the road and, yes, somehow lost to a dismal Kentucky team. But hey, LSU lost to USC, too. It has been a weird season.
SP+ loves Ole Miss. The Rebels check in at No. 4 there, behind only Ohio State, Texas and Georgia.
The FPI agrees, ranking the Rebels fifth.
In ESPN’s game control metric, no team is better. Ole Miss has the third-best average in-game win percentage. That suggests a lot of strange twists, and bad luck was involved with its losses. These are things the committee should be evaluating when comparing like teams.
But how about this comparison?
Team A: 7-2, 23 points per game scoring margin vs. FBS, 1 loss to unranked, three wins vs. SP+ top 40
Team B: 7-2, 19 points per game scoring margin vs. FBS, 1 loss to unranked, three wins vs. SP+ top 40
Pretty similar, eh?
Of course, one of them is Ole Miss. That’s Team A this time around.
Team B is Alabama, ranked five spots higher.
Sure, this situation can be resolved quite easily this weekend with a win over Georgia, but Ole Miss starting at the back of the pack of SEC contenders seems like a miss by the committee, even if the math will change substantially before the next rankings are revealed.
Oh, thanks so much for the No. 25 nod, committee. All Army has done is win every game without trailing the entire season. Last season, when Liberty waltzed through its weakest-in-the-nation schedule, the committee had no objections to giving the Flames enough love to make a New Year’s Six bowl. But Army? At No. 25? Thirteen spots behind Boise State, the Knights’ competition for the Group of 5’s bid? Something tells us some spies from Air Force have infiltrated the committee’s room in some sort of Manchurian Candidate scenario.
Sure, the Seminoles are terrible now, and yes, the committee this season has plenty of new faces, but that doesn’t mean folks in Tallahassee have forgiven or forgotten what happened a year ago. Before the committee’s playoff snub, FSU had won 19 straight games and averaged 39 points. Since the snub, the Noles are 1-9 and haven’t scored 21 points in any game. Who’s to blame for this? Mike Norvell? The coaching staff? DJ Uiagalelei and the other struggling QBs? Well, sure. But it’s much easier to just blame the committee. Those folks killed Florida State’s playoff hopes and ended their run of success. The least they could do this year is rank them No. 25 just for fun.
HUNTSVILLE, Ala. — Alabama A&M linebacker Medrick Burnett Jr. remains hospitalized after sustaining a head injury during a game.
Burnett was still in the hospital Tuesday, according to an Alabama A&M spokesperson. The school hasn’t disclosed details of the injury Burnett suffered during a collision against Alabama State on Oct. 26.
A fundraising request on gofundme.com had raised more than $17,000 of a $100,000 goal as of Tuesday, and the school also set up an emergency relief fund. The gofundme goal included money to help the family pay for housing so they could be with him.
“He had several brain bleeds and swelling of the brain,” Burnett’s sister, Dominece, wrote in a post on the page. “He had to have a tube to drain to relieve the pressure, and after 2 days of severe pressure, we had to opt for a craniotomy, which was the last resort to help try to save his life.”
An update on Saturday said Burnett had had complications, but didn’t elaborate.
Burnett is a second-year freshman from Lakewood, California. He transferred from Grambling State during the offseason.
College Football Senior Writer for ESPN. Insider for College Gameday.
Nebraska is adding former Houston and West Virginia head coach Dana Holgorsen to the staff as an offensive consultant, sources told ESPN.
Holgorsen will work with the offensive staff in a role that will evolve as the season goes on, per sources. Holgorsen joins the staff after spending this season with TCU as an offensive consultant.
He joins Nebraska at a time when the offense — and freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola — have been mired in a rut of uneven play and the team is on a three-game losing streak.
In Nebraska’s six conference games, the Cornhuskers rank No. 12 in the Big Ten in offense, No. 14 in rushing offense and No. 11 in passing offense. Offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield has drawn criticism during Nebraska’s recent offensive slump, which has seen a dip in the passing game of Raiola, who was ESPN’s No. 11 recruit and the top pocket passer in the 2024 recruiting class.
Raiola has the third-most interceptions among Big Ten quarterbacks with eight, trailing Michigan State‘s Aidan Chiles (11) and USC‘s Miller Moss (9), who is being benched by the Trojans in favor of Jayden Maiava for next week’s matchup with the Cornhuskers.
In the past four games, Raiola has thrown just one touchdown and six interceptions. After starting 5-1, Nebraska is 5-4 and needs a win during a tough closing stretch to clinch the program’s first bowl game since 2016. That’s the longest drought of any team in power conference football.
Nebraska has a bye this week before next week’s visit to USC.
In adding Holgorsen, they are bringing in a coach who is a noted quarterback tutor and author of prolific offenses. Over the years he has worked with a slew of top college quarterbacks as an assistant and head coach — Graham Harrell, Case Keenum, Brandon Weeden, Geno Smith, Will Grier and Clayton Tune.
Holgorsen arrived in Lincoln on Monday, per sources.