Britain’s Finance Minister Rachel Reeves has pledged to make the “necessary”, “urgent” and “incredibly tough” choices to restore the country’s economic stability.
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LONDON — British technology bosses and investors are warning that entrepreneurs may be forced to leave the U.K., if the government moves forward with controversial plans to raise capital gains tax on share sales.
Recent media reports have suggested Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is planning to hike capital gains tax (CGT) — which applies to the profit investors make on the sale of an investments — with The Guardian saying the levy could jump to 39%. Last week, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer told Bloomberg that such speculation was “wide of the mark.”
Reeves is expected to announce sweeping fiscal changes during her Oct. 30 budget, as she seeks to close a multi-billion funding gap in public finances.
The government is also planning to increase capital gains tax on shares and other assets by “several percentage points,” the Times reported, meaning that those who sell their stakes in an acquisition, initial public offering or secondary share sale will be taxed on any gain in value.
Reeves also plans to cut the so-called business asset disposal relief (BADR), which allows entrepreneurs to pay a reduced 10% tax on profits from the sale of their firms, Bloomberg found.
CNBC has not been able to independently verify these reports. The Treasury did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Several entrepreneurs and investors have warned that the U.K. could face an exodus of technology entrepreneurs as a result of the reported tax changes.
In an open letter to Reeves earlier this month, more than 500 entrepreneurs urged the finance minister to resist calls to hike capital gains tax or restrict the business asset disposal relief scheme.
“Higher CGT or any restrictions on BADR would make this relief less competitive at a time when the rest of the world is making their reliefs more competitive,” read the letter, published by The Entrepreneurs Network on Oct. 13.
“It would mean the UK has the second-highest CGT rate in Europe, and jeopardise the success of our country’s startup ecosystem by enormously weakening the incentive individuals have to build businesses.”
The list of signatories includes the likes of Giles Andrews, co-founder of digital bank Zopa, Rishi Khosla, CEO of financing platform OakNorth, and Victor Riparbelli, boss of artificial intelligence firm Synthesia.
They suggested that the plans would make it harder for entrepreneurs to build businesses in the U.K. — or indeed, force entrepreneur out of the country.
“By discouraging entrepreneurs from starting and growing their businesses, HM Treasury could well end up lowering the tax take overall,” the letter said.
“I’ve noticed a rising sense of stress in the U.K. tech ecosystem over proposals like this. If implemented, such a move would send a deeply negative signal,” Adam French, partner at seed investors Antler, told CNBC by email.
“There is a real risk of complacency in U.K. tech, in tandem with increasing competition from Paris and Berlin for talent, and a brain drain to the U.S.,” French added.
Harry Stebbings, a venture capitalist known for popular tech podcast “The Twenty Minute VC,” told The Guardian newspaper last week that entrepreneurs would leave the U.K. if the government raises capital gains tax.
Calling the government’s plan on capital gains tax the “biggest” issue for entrepreneurs, Stebbings said: “I know fewer entrepreneurs will be here. They will leave en masse.”
Not everyone agrees that capital gains tax shouldn’t be increased to raise public finances.
In a report by the center-left Institute for Public Policy Research published last week, a group of millionaire business owners said they would welcome an increase in the rate levied on capital gains to match the higher rate of income tax.
The analysis found that capital gains tax was not a primary driver of investment decisions, with entrepreneurs more focused on issues like access to financing, market opportunities and broader economic conditions.
Global investors are bracing for a battle between long and short-term wins amid a dramatic sell-off in artificial intelligence-related stocks.
AI darling Nvidia buoyed an otherwise deflated market when it reported strong earnings after the bell on Wednesday, sending its own stock soaring and carrying related names alongside it. However, the rally quickly reversed on Thursday with Nvidia ultimately ending the trading session 3% lower.
While the U.S. chipmaker’s earnings initially appeared strong enough to quell concerns over an AI bubble, economic speculation put global investors back on the defensive as hopes dimmed of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The U.K.’s hotly anticipated Autumn Budget is also expected next week.
“I think the market is quite confused as to why this is happening,” Ozan Ozkural, founding managing partner at Tanto Capital Partners, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe” on Friday.
Market moves this year have been driven by sentiment, momentum, AI and innovation, “with sprinkles of geopolitical risk,” he said. “Although we haven’t got a specific reason why there has been a sell-off on the back of the strong Nvidia results, to me it’s not that surprising, because [it’s] only a matter of time until sentiment just shifts, because we just live in a much more uncertain world.”
There also doesn’t need to be a catalyst, he added. However, the “most dangerous place we can be at” is a sustained sell-off, even if it’s a slow burn, Ozkural warning, noting that this could lead portfolio managers to lock in gains and cash out.
Asset managers are driven by compensation cycles which is why they don’t like to hedge their bets, he said. “No one cares about the long term. Everyone is dead in the long term. No one even cares about the medium term. It’s all about short term cycles,” he said.
“But the reality is, it’s year end, people need to get paid their bonuses, and it doesn’t pay to be bearish unless we see a sustained level of a sell-off.”
Investors with cash in an AI ETF or index may be cashing out due to a mixture of year-end risk management and continued concerns over an AI bubble. Those who may have made a lot of money on the back of the AI trade will probably want to step back and sell, said Stephen Yiu, investment chief at Blue Whale Growth Fund, which has a position in Nvidia.
However, for Julius Bendikas, European head of macro and dynamic asset allocation at Mercer, “it’s the battle between the solid fundamentals and questions being raised about multiples and maybe positioning getting a touch stretched.”
Despite solid fundamentals and earnings exceeding expectations, Bendikas told CNBC’s “Europe Early Edition” that investors are now starting to question whether the price is right and have started to sell as a result.
On technicals, “arguably, a lot of people have rushed into equities,” he said, noting that a recent Bank of America survey found cash levels are low. “So people have been quite long equities, maybe too long equities. And I think what we’ve seen yesterday is the valuations and technicals [narrative] overpowering the fundamental narrative, which came in quite strong post the Nvidia earnings overnight, a day ago.”
Nick Patience, AI lead at The Futurum Group, added: “Investors are also concerned about the circular nature of deals between Nvidia and other ecosystem players, questioning whether massive capital expenditures from hyperscaler customers represent sustainable demand.”
Fed rate cut
The moves may also reflect economic pressure. “The [Thursday] afternoon decline coincided with some negative macroeconomic signals in the form of the delayed September jobs report released in the morning that showed the US economy added 119,000 jobs – more than the expected 50,000 – but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest level since October 2021,” Patience said.
The last bit of big news the market is expecting is the Fed’s December rate decision; investors had anticipated a cut but are now split on whether it will happen.
The central bank opting to not cut rates is “not an issue,” Yiu said, but could lead investors who had expected it to cut, to pause and recalibrate ahead of next year.
“I think people just want to probably lock in and derisk, and take a break from [President Donald] Trump as well, who knows what Trump is going to next,” he added.
Amid the hype, it’s difficult to work out the AI winners and losers, Yiu said, but he expects a differentiation between the companies investing in AI and those on the receiving end of that cash, which he called AI infrastructure. As the market shakes out, Yiu is placing his bets on the latter.
The entrance to a Foxconn construction site in Mount Pleasant, Wisconsin, in May 2019.
Katie Tarasov | CNBC
Foxconn showcased its push into artificial intelligence at its annual ‘Hon Hai Tech Day’ in Taiwan on Friday, underscoring the world’s largest contract manufacturer’s efforts to evolve beyond its role as the biggest assembler of Apple’s iPhones.
The company, officially known as Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., has also become a major player in the AI hardware space, with its event taking place the same day it announced a partnership with ChatGPT maker OpenAI.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, in a video statement streamed at the event, said that the two firms would “share insight into emerging hardware needs across the AI industry.”
He added that Foxconn would use those insights to design and prototype new equipment that could be manufactured in the United States.
The partnership will center on Foxconn’s server business, which earlier this year became its largest revenue driver and helped drive record profit in the September quarter.
Describing Foxconn and OpenAI as “natural partners,” Kirk Yang, an adjunct finance professor at National Taiwan University, told CNBC, “OpenAI needs strong partners, not only to manufacture products, but to quickly introduce all the products to the market.”
“So I think it makes perfect sense for OpenAI to work with Foxconn. And Foxconn is probably the strongest partner that open AI can find,” he added.
Foxconn also announced a partnership with Intrinsic, a unit of Alphabet to build so-called “artificial intelligence factories.”
The Taiwanese manufacturer highlighted deeper work with Nvidia as well, showcasing its compute trays for the chip designer’s cutting-edge Blackwell chips.
Speaking at the Friday event, Alexis Bjorlin, vice president and general manager of Nvidia’s DGX Cloud unit, said the partners would work on deploying advanced AI infrastructure much faster to meet customer demand.
Despite Nvidia’s results showing that demand for AI hardware remains strong, concerns persist in the market about a potential AI bubble and the sustainability of heavy AI spending.
Speaking to CNBC’s Emily Chan on the sidelines of Hon Hai Tech Day, Foxconn Chairman Young Liu expressed confidence that the company would be protected from a potential AI bubble.
“No matter what [AI] models or [AI] model players will win, they all need hardware, and no matter what GPU player will win, they all need system and component suppliers to support them,” he said.
The logo of Japanese company SoftBank Group is seen outside the company’s headquarters in Tokyo on January 22, 2025.
Kazuhiro Nogi | Afp | Getty Images
A sector-wide pullback hit Asian chip stocks Friday, led by a steep decline in SoftBank, after Nvidia‘s sharp drop overnight defied its stronger-than-expected earnings and bullish outlook.
SoftBank plunged more than 10% in Tokyo. The Japanese tech conglomerate recently offloaded its Nvidia shares but still controls British semiconductor company Arm, which supplies Nvidia with chip architecture and designs.
SoftBank is also involved in a number of AI ventures that use Nvidia’s technology, including the $500 billion Stargate project for data centers in the U.S.
South Korea’s SK Hynix fell nearly 10%. The memory chip maker is Nvidia’s top supplier of high-bandwidth memory used in AI applications. Samsung Electronics, a rival that also supplies Nvidia with memory, fell over 5%.
Taiwan’s Hon Hai Precision Industry, also known as Foxconn, which manufactures server racks designed for AI workloads, dipped 4%.
The retreat in major Asian semiconductor giants comes after Nvidia fell over 3% in the U.S. on Thursday, despite beating Wall Street expectations in its third-quarter earnings the night before.
The company also provided stronger-than-expected fourth-quarter sales guidance, which analysts said could lift earnings expectations across the sector.
However, smaller chip players in Asia were not spared either.
In Tokyo, Renesas Electronics, a key Nvidia supplier, fell 2.3%. Tokyo Electron, which provides essential chipmaking equipment to foundries that manufacture Nvidia’s chips, was down 5.32%.
Another Japanese chip equipment maker, Lasertec, was down over 3.5%.