After the Yankees put away the Cleveland Guardians on Juan Soto‘s extra-innings home run in Game 5 of the ALCS on Saturday night, the Dodgers finished off the New York Mets with a Game 6 win in the NLCS on Sunday.
What carried New York and Los Angeles this far — and will it continue to work in the Fall Classic? What can we expect from Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani? And which other stars must shine for each team to win? Our MLB experts are here with your first look at a showdown between two of MLB’s premier franchises.
New York Yankees
What is the No. 1 factor that has carried the Yankees to the World Series?
Jorge Castillo: The stress they apply on opposing pitchers. The Yankees, in particular the top four hitters in their lineup, have made pitchers work. Guardians manager Stephen Vogt succinctly described the challenge before Game 5 of the ALCS: They’re on the fastball, and they don’t chase. The Yankees are averaging four pitches per plate appearance in the playoffs. They are drawing walks at a high clip. The constant traffic creates constant pressure. And it starts early: Leadoff hitter Gleyber Torres has reached base in the first inning in eight of the Yankees’ nine playoff games. Juan Soto, their 2-hole hitter, has done it in seven games. That increases pitch counts early, which leads to a quicker hook for opposing starting pitchers, which taxes bullpens over a series. It’s a grind, and it’s an effective blueprint.
Bradford Doolittle: Patience. Those walks galore have kept the pressure on opposing pitchers and set up the big moments for the Yankees’ offense, which have usually come in the form of clutch, multi-run homers. Runs have been at a premium on the AL side of the proceedings and instead of getting out of their approach in an effort to make something happen, from top to bottom New York has been able to maintain this key aspect of its regular-season attack.
Jeff Passan: Their ability to get on base. The Yankees have an AL-best .347 on-base percentage and are walking in a staggering 13.9% of plate appearances. Walks are up across the board in the postseason — the playoffs-wide walk rate is 9.9%, compared to 8.2% in the regular season — but among their nine regulars, seven Yankees are walking at least 11.1% of the time. What’s especially impressive is their on-base percentage to lead off innings: .450. By now, it should be boilerplate: the easiest way to score runs is to put people on base. And the Yankees have scored enough to make it to the World Series.
Why will — or won’t — it continue against the Dodgers?
Castillo: The guess here is it will. Like the Guardians, the Dodgers have relied heavily on their bullpen in the postseason. Their three starters — Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler — have had uneven postseasons. They have combined to make eight playoff starts. Four of those starts have lasted fewer than five innings. Add in at least one bullpen game, if not two, over the course of the series, and the Yankees have the recipe to grind the Dodgers’ pitching staff down.
Doolittle: I think it will continue, but the problem is that the advantage the Yankees have in this department disappears because the Dodgers are just as good collectively when it comes to grinding down opposing pitchers. The key to the series might be the walks department, either because one team does a better job of preventing them or does a better job of capitalizing on them in the form of big home runs.
Passan: It will, because the Dodgers are susceptible to the walk — and L.A.’s pitchers don’t strike out oodles of hitters. Los Angeles’ advantage early in the series is that it will be able to give the Yankees plenty of different looks among its array of bullpen arms. If the Yankees weather those early games, the familiarity penalty could work in favor of New York’s offense later in the series. (This goes both ways, to be clear.) New York’s hitting depth has blossomed this October, and it’s the sort that’s smart enough not to get bullpenned to death.
It has been an up-and-down postseason for Aaron Judge. What should we expect to see from him in the World Series?
Castillo: More success. Judge hasn’t been MVP Judge in the postseason. Going 5-for-31 with 13 strikeouts isn’t ideal. But he has been productive. He has walked seven times. He has hit two home runs. He hasn’t been a zero. Remember that tying two-run home run he hit off Guardians closer Emmanuel Clase in Game 3 of the ALCS? Not many people on Earth would’ve hit that pitch out. He reached base in four of five ALCS games. He’s due for a breakout.
Doolittle: A big series. He’s just too good for this (lack of hits) to continue. Getting to the Series in the first place should ease his mind, and those around him — Soto, Stanton, Torres — have been going so well that Judge needn’t feel any special burden. I think he’ll hit at least four home runs against the Dodgers.
Passan: Up. It’s always eventually going to be up with Judge. Even as he “struggles” this postseason, he has still been a near-average producer, with a wRC+ of 94. No, it’s not to Judge’s standards, but acting as if he has disappeared is just counterfactual. Much of the production came in the ALCS, which suggests that Judge could be ready to go on a jag. If he does, he’s the sort of player who can carry a team to a championship.
Which other player is most crucial to the Yankees’ chances in this series?
Castillo: Gerrit Cole. The reigning AL Cy Young Award winner — he has that title for about another month — is the best starting pitcher in this series. He is lined up to start Game 1 on nine days’ rest. If all goes well, he’d take the ball in Game 5 and be able to help out in Game 7. He could have the opportunity to make a huge impact on this series. His postseason has been a mixed bag thus far: One dominant outing and two solid showings. Something like his performance in Game 4 of the ALDS — seven one-run innings on the road in a series-clinching win over the Royals — in Game 1 against the Dodgers on Friday could significantly boost Yankees’ chances to win the championship.
Doolittle: Luke Weaver. This entire postseason has been defined by the successes and lack thereof of ninth-inning relievers. Weaver has been terrific but not perfect as the Guardians took him deep a couple of times. The Yankees’ bullpen looks a lot more formidable if Aaron Boone can assume an on-point Weaver to take over at the end of games.
Passan: Weaver. The newly minted closer finally showed a crack after an almost-impermeable postseason during Game 3 of the division series, allowing Jhonkensy Noel blast to tie the game with two outs in the ninth. Prior to that, Weaver had been the most unhittable pitcher in baseball for a month, and he has the arsenal to back it up with a four-seamer, changeup and cutter that are all above-average pitches. But Boone has leaned on him heavily. If Weaver can muster the ability to regularly finish games as he has done for a majority of the postseason, the Yankees will feel much better in the most high-leverage situations.
Los Angeles Dodgers
What is the No. 1 factor that has carried the Dodgers to the World Series?
Alden Gonzalez: Their offensive approach, which basically boils down to this: Ignore balls and be aggressive against pitches in your preferred area. It sounds a whole lot easier than it actually is, of course. And the Dodgers’ hitters were as good as any throughout the year at luring opposing pitchers into their desired nitro zones, a skillset they used expertly against Jose Quintana — the New York Mets left-hander who thrived all year at getting chase — during their 10-run onslaught in NLCS Game 4. The Dodgers’ pitching continues to be a concern, but their lineup — even with a hobbled Freddie Freeman — has the depth and talent to carry them through every October round. And when they’re stubborn in their zone, they can seem unbeatable.
Jesse Rogers: Let’s not overthink this: Shohei Ohtani impacts games in ways no other player can right now. Yes, the Dodgers have had some good pitching performances, but their bread-and-butter is their offense and it starts with Ohtahi. Take Game 4. The leadoff home run set the tone for the night, and that’s not just cliché talk. After putting the Dodgers up 1-0, the Mets pitched him so carefully that he walked the next three times and scored three more runs because of it. His damage (7-for-11, five walks) with men on base this postseason should not be glossed over. He’s the reason the Dodgers are here.
David Schoenfield: More than anything, the roster depth from No. 1 to No. 26. It seems just about everybody has stepped up at some point. Or let’s put it this way: That depth has allowed the Dodgers to overcome the injuries in the rotation as well as injuries to Freddie Freeman (who has just one run scored and one RBI in the postseason) and Miguel Rojas (who wasn’t on the roster for the NLCS). The bullpen saved the season with that the shutout in Game 4 against the Padres, Mookie Betts finally broke out of his multiyear postseason slump, Tommy Edman drove in 11 runs in the NLCS and Kiké Hernandez has continued his Mr. October persona after getting a chance to start when Rojas went down in the NLDS against the Padres.
Why will — or won’t — it continue against the Yankees?
Gonzalez: Because if there’s one team better than the Dodgers at not chasing outside the strike zone and being aggressive within it, it’s, you guessed it, the Yankees. And New York’s lineup seems exponentially more challenging to navigate with Gleyber Torres consistently getting on base from the leadoff spot and Giancarlo Stanton continually crushing big homers behind Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. Unlike in the NLCS, for which they weren’t able to reset their rotation, the Dodgers will probably require only one bullpen game in the World Series. But it goes without saying that they’re nonetheless going to need their three-man staff of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler to be effective. That was a tough task against the Mets. It will be exceedingly difficult against the Yankees.
Rogers: The short porch at Yankees Stadium will benefit Shohei Ohtani, Max Muncy, Freddie Freeman and others, but Dodgers pitching is trending toward being on fumes. Can Yamamoto give them a few more innings? Did Jack Flaherty hit a wall in his last start? Which direction is Walker Buehler trending in this October? There are just too many questions heading into another potentially long series. Additionally, the Dodgers have had success leaning on their bullpen so far, but asking for another round of covering about five innings per night could be asking too much. The Yankees are set up better on the mound for what could be a high-scoring series.
Schoenfield: It’s going to have to continue. They still have just three starters, and Jack Flaherty’s second outing against the Mets (eight runs and no strikeouts in three innings) doesn’t exactly inspire confidence for the World Series. After that game, Dave Roberts mentioned in regards to Freeman, “I do think his swing is not right. I’m certain it’s the ankle.” In other words, it’s hard to know what to expect from Freeman in the World Series. In the end, while the bullpen seems hot, Roberts will have to manage those innings carefully. Still, the Dodgers probably can’t keep relying so much on guys like Tommy Edman and Kiké Hernandez. They’ll need more Teoscar Hernandez and Will Smith — and, of course, big results from Ohtani and Mookie Betts.
Shohei Ohtani has had mixed results in his first postseason. What should we expect from him in the World Series?
Gonzalez: One thing I don’t expect to see is a lot of strikes. Ohtani has drawn 11 walks in his first 11 postseason games and is seeing only 39.0% of pitches within the strike zone. Teams clearly prefer to make those batting behind Ohtani beat them. And given that the vast majority of the Yankees’ best arms are right-handed — all except Tim Hill, who’s technically below three other relievers in the pecking order — they’ll probably pitch Ohtani just as carefully as everybody else. If Mookie Betts stays hot, of course, that won’t be a problem. Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has said that when Ohtani is right, he’s “stubborn in his zone” and drives pitches into the left- and right-center-field gaps. That approach has come and gone this month.
Rogers: Greatness. Yes, he has made a few outs when the bases were empty — so what? He’ll find the dimensions at Yankees stadium to his liking and already is beginning to reverse his trend of hitting only with runners on, as evidenced by his leadoff homer in Game 4 of the NLCS. And who knows, maybe we’ll see him on the mound. He’s nearly ready to face hitters — though the Dodgers might not want the first time to be in the World Series. Anything can happen in baseball, but Ohtani will show up in the box score one way or another. Bank on it.
Schoenfield: Ohtani has been fine. Through his 11 postseason games, he has three home runs, 10 RBIs, 11 walks and 12 runs – season-long paces of 44 home runs, 145 RBIs, 160 walks and 160 runs. I think our expectations were a little unrealistic given his absolutely ridiculous stretch to end the season, so his very good performance almost seems like a letdown. The only things he hasn’t done: steal any bases (he’s 0-for-1) and deliver a signature game to remember. I think we’ll get one of those games in the World Series.
Which other player is most crucial to the Dodgers’ chances in this series?
Gonzalez: Pick a starter. Any starter. I’ll go with Jack Flaherty. He’ll probably get Game 1 because he can come back on the traditional four days’ rest to pitch again in Game 5 (if Yoshinobu Yamamoto starts Game 1, the Dodgers would be forced to stage two bullpen days within the first five games because Yamamoto requires five days of rest). Flaherty pitched seven scoreless innings in Game 1 of the NLCS but got roughed up in a Game 5 start in which he threw with a diminished fastball. The Dodgers desperately need Flaherty to recapture the life of that pitch. It’s hard to see them winning a championship without him being effective.
Rogers: I’m going outside the box on this one: Yamamoto. He’s trending in the right direction, and the Dodgers desperately need some innings out of somebody on the starting staff, especially if Flaherty’s rough last outing is closer to who he’ll be going forward. He looked like he hit a wall, while Walker Buehler has been grinding through his starts for a while now. Meanwhile, Yamamoto threw 73 pitches in Game 4 of the NLCS, striking out eight Mets over 4⅓ innings. If he can add another 10 pitches to that this round, he’ll be as important as anyone on the mound for L.A.
Schoenfield: I’m going with Teoscar Hernandez. Given the state of the Dodgers’ pitching and the potential of the bullpen hitting the wall a little bit, they’re going to have to score runs. And with Freeman limited, it’s up to Hernandez to offer that big bat behind Ohtani and Betts. He didn’t get a hit the first five games of the NLCS. That can’t continue if the Dodgers are going to win.
DALLAS — Winnipeg Jets center Mark Scheifele scored a goal in his club’s must-win Game 6 of the second-round playoff series at Dallas on Saturday night, hours after the unexpected death of his father.
But he also had the penalty that set up the Stars’ power-play goal in overtime for a 2-1 win that knocked the top-ranked Jets out of the playoffs.
Jets captain Adam Lowry went and got Scheifele out of the box when the game ended.
“We’re a family. Just to let him know that we’re there for him. It’s just an awful day for him,” Lowry said. “You want to give him the strength, you want to get that kill so bad. We just couldn’t do it.”
During the handshake line afterward, Scheifele hugged and talked to just about everyone, with Stars players clearly offering their support to him in a heartwarming moment.
Scheifele scored his fifth goal of the playoffs 5½ minutes into the second period to give the Jets a 1-0 lead. He scored on a short snap shot from just outside the crease after gathering the rebound of a shot by Kyle Connor.
“I just I know we have a great group here. I knew, going in, once we found out the news that he’s going to have a great support group and we’re going to be there for him through the highs and the lows and obviously today was a real low,” defenseman Neal Pionk said of Scheifele. “[We] did everything we could to give him some words of encouragement, [and] for him to play tonight, and play the way he did, is flat out one of the most courageous things we’ve ever seen.”
The game was tied at 1 when Sam Steel, who had already scored for Dallas, was on a break. Scheifele lunged forward desperately trying to make a play when he tripped up the forward at the blue line with 14.8 seconds in regulation. Scheifele and the Jets avoided a penalty shot on the play, but ended up losing on the power play when Thomas Harley scored 1:33 into overtime.
Jets coach Scott Arniel said the news of Brad Scheifele’s passing overnight was difficult for the entire team. The team was told before the optional morning skate.
“On behalf of the Winnipeg Jets family, our condolences to Mark and his family. It rocked us all this morning when we found out,” Arniel said before the game. “Mark will be playing tonight. As he said, that’d be the wishes of his dad. He would have wanted him to play.”
Scheifele was the last Jets player to leave the ice following pregame warmups, and during at least part of the singing of “O Canada,” he had his head bowed and his eyes closed. He took the opening faceoff against Roope Hintz.
“The thing about Mr. Scheifele is he’s part of our family. He’s part of the Jets family. He goes back to 2011 when Mark was first drafted here,” Arniel said. “We have a lot of players that came in around the time that are still here that he’s been a big part of their life, along with their family. So it’s certainly, obviously devastating for Mark, but also for a lot of guys on this team.”
Winnipeg general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff said the organization was doing everything it can to support Scheifele. There was no immediate word on the cause of Brad Scheifele’s death.
The 32-year-old Mark Scheifele finished with 11 points (five goals, six assists) while playing in 11 of the Jets’ 13 games this postseason. He missed Games 6 and 7 of the first-round series against St. Louis with an undisclosed injury after taking a pair of big hits early in Game 5 of that series.
In Game 5 against the Stars on Thursday night, a 4-0 win by Winnipeg that extended the series, Scheifele was sucker-punched by Stars captain Jamie Benn during a late scrum. Benn got a game misconduct penalty and was fined by the NHL the maximum-allowed $5,000 but avoided a suspension.
Scheifele had 87 points (39 goals and 48 assists) in the 82 regular-season games.
DALLAS — Thomas Harley scored on a power play 1:33 into overtime and the Dallas Stars advanced to the Western Conference final for the third season in a row, beating the top-seeded Winnipeg Jets2-1 in Game 6 on Saturday night.
Mark Scheifele scored for the Jets hours after the unexpected death of his father, but also had a tripping penalty with 14.8 seconds left in regulation that set up Dallas to start overtime with a man advantage.
Sam Steel, who had scored earlier for Dallas, was on a break when Scheifele lunged forward desperately trying to make a play when he tripped up the forward at the blue line. The Stars called a timeout, but missed a shot and had another one blocked before the end of regulation.
The Stars move on to face the Edmonton Oilers in the West final for the second year in a row and will host Game 1. Connor McDavid and his club, which won in six games last year, wrapped up their second-round series with a 1-0 overtime win over Vegas on Wednesday night in Game 5.
Dallas goaltender Jake Oettinger made 22 saves to wrap up his sixth playoff series win over the past three seasons. He made an incredible diving save with 8½ minutes left in regulation, leaning to the right before having to lunge back across his body toward the left post to knock down a shot by Mason Appleton.
Winnipeg goaltender Connor Hellebuyck stopped 19 shots but couldn’t prevent a loss that assured a winless record for his club on the road this postseason. Meanwhile, his final goal allowed continued a magical season for Harley, Dallas’ breakout blueliner who also played for Team Canada this season in the 4 Nations Face-Off.
“Not surprising to the guys in here,” Oettinger said of Harley’s rise to prominence. “We’re very lucky.”
Steel notched his first goal of the playoffs midway through the second period. He shot a long rebound from the top of the right circle, sending the puck into the upper right corner of the net just above Hellebuyck’s glove.
“I’m just disappointed,” Winnipeg captain Adam Lowry said. “We couldn’t get that [penalty] kill for [the fans], and get it back to win in Winnipeg for Game 7. But you know, [I’m] really proud of this group, and the way they handled everything, and the way we fought back. … It just came up short.”
The Jets become the next in a long line of Presidents’ Trophy winners to bow out early. The award, which goes to the NHL’s top regular-season team, was won by the New York Rangers last season before they lost in the Eastern Conference final. Two years ago, the No. 1 seed Boston Bruins lost in the first round to the Florida Panthers.
“We lost to a great team,” Winnipeg coach Scott Arniel said. “We lost to a team that was in our rearview mirror all year long.”
Scheifele’s effort was a focus for Dallas coach Pete DeBoer, who began his postgame media availability by saying what the Jets star forward did in playing Saturday was “courageous,” adding “I’m sure his dad would’ve been really proud of him and what he did.”
For the Stars, it’s off to the NHL’s final four, as the franchise continues to seek its second Stanley Cup title.
“I think we’ve got something special going on. We’re going to have to prove it again,” DeBoer said. “You know, we’ve been to this spot the last two years and haven’t taken the next step, so that’s the challenge.”
As the Vegas Golden Knights absorb being knocked out in the second round of the NHL playoffs by the Edmonton Oilers, they don’t have to wait long before planning for their future. Jack Eichel, who has one season left on his eight-year, $80 million contract, is eligible for an extension beginning July 1.
“He’s one of the top guys in the NHL,” general manager Kelly McCrimmon said. “He’s got great character, great leadership. You see night in, night out what he does for our team, so that will be a really important piece of business for us. We certainly hope to keep Jack in our organization. Jack loves it here, so I would hope we could find common ground.”
Eichel, 28, comes off the best season of his 10-year career, the past four with the Golden Knights. He set career highs with 66 assists and 94 points to go with 28 goals as the center on the team’s top line. He also skated for Team USA in the 4 Nations Face-Off, where his club finished second to Canada.
“Can’t say enough about my teammates and the people in this building and the people that make this organization what it is,” Eichel said. “I’m super proud to be part of this organization and the city and represent the Vegas Golden Knights. Contractually, I think things kind of take care of itself. I’ll just worry about trying to prepare for next season this offseason and go from there.”
Management, which is not known for sitting on its hands, will have other significant decisions to make as well on the team’s direction after the Golden Knights were eliminated in the second round for the second year in a row.
“I like our team,” coach Bruce Cassidy said. “I don’t have a problem with any player in that room. I think every one of them is a great teammate. They care about one another. Are there areas of our game we could complement better? Probably. We’ll evaluate that.
“All the guys that were up, their contracts, they were all good players for us. All good players. No disappointments at all. We’ll probably have to look at areas because we’re not the last team standing. Usually, you think, ‘Where can we upgrade? Where can I upgrade what I do?'”
McCrimmon offered a similar assessment.
“I feel our team was good enough to win,” McCrimmon said.
The Golden Knights won the Stanley Cup two years ago and thought they had another contender this season after capturing the Pacific Division and securing the Western Conference’s second-best record. But Vegas had to rally from a 2-1 series deficit to beat Minnesota in the opening round, winning twice in overtime. Then the Golden Knights lost two overtime games in the 4-1 series loss to the Edmonton Oilers.
“I didn’t walk away from Edmonton saying, ‘We had no chance. They’re just better,'” Cassidy said. “I didn’t feel that way. I felt we needed to execute better in a few of the games and we could be the team moving on.”
Forward William Karlsson said losing to the Oilers made it “a wasted season.” McCrimmon wasn’t as blunt, instead labeling the loss as “a missed opportunity.”
Change will come, but at least given the tenor of the comments by Cassidy and McCrimmon, the Golden Knights will largely return their roster intact next season.
“I think we have a great organization,” goaltender Adin Hill said. “Best management I’ve been under. I think they’re going to do the things that they see fit for [the] roster, whether it’s keeping it the same or whether it’s changing up a few things. I don’t know. That’s their decision, above my paygrade, but it will be exciting to see. We know that we’re going to be contenders every year.”
Forward Reilly Smith made it clear he wants to return. An original Golden Knight, Smith was traded to the Pittsburgh Penguins after winning the Stanley Cup and then sent to the New York Rangers a year later. The Golden Knights reacquired the 34-year-old on March 6.
Smith made a smooth transition back into the lineup with three goals and eight assists in 21 games. Then he delivered the play of the postseason for the Golden Knights, scoring with 0.4 seconds left to beat the Oilers in Game 3, and finished with three goals and an assist in 11 playoff games.
“Probably the best hockey I’ve played in my career has been wearing this jersey,” Smith said. “It’s a fun group to be a part of and a fun place to call home. My family loves it here, so if there’s a way to make it work, it’d be great. At the end of the day, it’s a business. My contract negotiations, I probably know as little as [the media does] right now.”