Welcome to the wild new SEC, where nothing — outside of Georgia dominating — makes much sense
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David Hale, ESPN Staff WriterOct 20, 2024, 12:55 AM ET
Close- College football reporter.
- Joined ESPN in 2012.
- Graduate of the University of Delaware.
It was less than a month ago that Georgia slunk into the locker room at halftime against Alabama, trailing by 23, battered and dazed, a shell of the program that had dominated the previous three seasons of college football.
A lot has changed since then.
Georgia’s frantic second-half comeback attempt that night didn’t ultimately end with a win, but it was an awakening, and the rejuvenated Bulldogs marched into Austin, Texas, on Saturday night and delivered a stark reminder that they’re still the kings of college football.
Alabama survived that night against Georgia, but it has since felt like the plot of some bad “Final Destination” sequel. The Tide should’ve lost that one, and death has stalked them ever since — first with a loss to Vanderbilt, then a narrow escape against South Carolina, and finally a dagger on Saturday against Tennessee. The Vols broke out the victory cigars after an ugly 24-17 win, handing Alabama a second loss before Nov. 1 for the first time since 2007.
And when the dust settled on Week 8, it’s not Georgia or Alabama or Texas or Tennessee at the top of the SEC standings. Instead, it’s LSU and Texas A&M — two teams that lost in Week 1 — now the lone programs still undefeated in conference play.
It is perhaps fitting that the most memorable moment from Saturday’s SEC chaos was a meeting of officials on the field in Austin, with fans tossing trash from the stands and both coaches apoplectic on the sidelines. None of this makes much sense, and we’re all struggling to sort out what just happened.
Perhaps we should believe that Georgia is, in spite of that loss to the Tide last month, still the preeminent team in college football. The Bulldogs certainly looked the part Saturday behind a running game that, for the first time this season, flexed real muscle. Trevor Etienne carried 19 times for 87 yards and three touchdowns behind an O-line that looked dominant. And yet, there were still red flags, led by Carson Beck‘s three interceptions, including the one that resulted in that scrum of officials.
Initially, what looked like a pick by Jahdae Barron was overturned by a flag for defensive pass interference. The crowd erupted in a chorus of boos as replay seemed to show little evidence of a flagrant foul. Steve Sarkisian pleaded his case, Texas fans threw various condiments onto the field and the officials gathered to discuss their options.
Refs overturn crucial PI call after fans throw trash on the field
After the referees call a controversial pass interference play, the Texas fans throw trash on the field and the call is reversed.
What was said in that huddle may never be known, but it’s entirely possible Matthew McConaughey wandered over from his place on the sideline, explained to the officials that the universe is filled with mystery and time is but a mirage and, in fact, that flag only truly existed in their minds.
After the officials picked up the flag, Texas scored to pull within eight, but Georgia never flinched. Nothing — not questionable officiating, Beck’s struggles or even a brief appearance by Arch Manning in which the crowd squealed like teenagers seeing the Beatles on “The Ed Sullivan Show” could keep the Bulldogs from an emphatic win.
It was a jarring setback for Texas, but what does that even mean in the SEC in 2024?
Alabama was king three weeks ago, and now the Tide have the same conference record as Florida.
Saturday’s performance in Knoxville was ugly. The offense managed just 314 yards. The Tide had 15 penalties in the game. King Mack‘s acting skills were atrocious.
What’s going on here? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/k2uDdF7puz
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 19, 2024
Three weeks ago, Tennessee was distraught. The offense was a mess, Nico Iamaleava couldn’t hit the broad side of a sun sphere, and an upset loss to Arkansas seemed to have the Vols’ playoff hopes on life support. But by Saturday evening, Iamaleava, Josh Heupel and Co. were enjoying the finest cigars 7-Eleven stocks behind the counter, and all was right with the world.
In Week 1, LSU couldn’t get off the field against USC. Now, it is riding high atop the SEC (while the Trojans, meanwhile, are such a disaster their season would be rejected as a plot line on “9-1-1” for being too unrealistic).
In Week 1, Texas A&M couldn’t find an offensive spark against Notre Dame. Now, the Aggies are 4-0 in conference and Mike Elko is the first A&M coach to start his tenure with six wins in seven games since an era when every college football coach was named Knute, Pop or Hoss.
And amid all of the zigs and zags of this SEC season, there’s still Vanderbilt, sailing along like a goalpost in the Cumberland River. Somehow the Commodores have a better shot at the SEC title game than the Tide or Ole Miss or Oklahoma because, in 2024, in this new SEC, there’s almost nothing that feels normal.
Well, OK, Auburn stinks. At least that’s a proper through line.
But the larger takeaway — from Saturday’s heavyweight fights, from the season to date — is that making sense of this year’s SEC is not for the faint of heart.
This is a new era, and what we knew to be true for the past 20 years — even for the past few weeks — can evaporate quicker than a defensive pass interference call in Texas.
Jump to:
We’re good now | Miami makes magic | Cook to the rescue
FSU loses … again | BYU stays undefeated | Vibe shifts
Dark days in Norman | Irish roll | Iowa State survives
Heisman five | Under the radar
We’re good now
Sometimes teams we’ve collectively dismissed in September use the time outside the spotlight to fix some problems and find their footing. With that in mind, we’re checking in with some surprising upstarts who’ve gone from afterthoughts to teams with real aspirations.
Washington State (6-1)
The Cougars dominated Hawai’i 42-10 behind QB John Mateer, who threw for three touchdowns and ran for two more. Mateer has developed into college football’s wildest ride — completing fewer than 60% of his throws, boasting three games with five touchdowns or more, winning a game while completing nine passes and losing one when completing 26. There’s virtually nothing about Mateer that seems off the table. He could throw for 600 yards or he could decide to live in a van and follow Maroon 5 on tour for a year. Anything is possible.
Colorado (5-2)
Travis Hunter left Saturday’s game after aggravating a shoulder injury, but it didn’t matter much for the Buffaloes, who romped past the Arizona Wildcats, 34-7. Deion Sanders’ squad is now just a win away from bowl eligibility, which would be a nice bit of validation for the oft-criticized coach if he were the type of person who looked for external validation rather than simply counting Instagram likes.
Cincinnati (5-2)
The Bearcats blew a 27-6 second-half lead against the Pittsburgh Panthers and missed a final-second field goal in a three-point loss to the Texas Tech Red Raiders, otherwise we’d be talking about an undefeated Cincinnati team. Either way, the Bearcats are 5-2 after beating Arizona State 24-14 on Saturday in a game in which the Sun Devils missed two late field goals that had head coach Kenny Dillingham saying he’d open up tryouts for a new kicker this week.
ASU coach labels kicking game ‘atrocious,’ confirms tryouts for Monday
ASU coach Kenny Dillingham labels his team’s kicking game “atrocious” and says it will be hosting open tryouts on Monday.
Wisconsin (5-2)
After dropping back-to-back games to Alabama and USC, the Badgers have found their mojo with three straight wins in which they allowed a grand total of 16 total points. That those three wins came against Purdue, Rutgers and, on Saturday, 23-3 vs. Northwestern, undercuts a bit of the enthusiasm, but after enough Brandy Old Fashioneds, who’s really counting anyway?
Vanderbilt (5-2)
These are halcyon days in Nashville. Will Levis is doing shirtless mayo commercials. Sturgill Simpson is doing what amounts to an Eras Tour for middle-aged guys with beards. And Vanderbilt is 5-2 after Saturday’s 28-14 win over Ball State. Diego Pavia accounted for 357 yards and two touchdowns in the win, which puts the Commodores ahead of Alabama, Ole Miss and Oklahoma in the SEC standings because the world no longer makes any sense.
The entire state of Louisiana (22-5)
LSU rode Caden Durham for three touchdowns in a 34-10 win over Arkansas on Saturday. Tulane cruised to a 24-10 win over Rice, too. Louisiana upended Coastal Carolina 34-24 and ULM had an off week. Add it all up, and the state’s four FBS teams are a combined 22-5. It’s the type of overwhelming success that warrants daily parades, an endless array of cocktails and a party around every corner. Unfortunately, that’s just not Louisiana’s style, so it’ll celebrate with a cool glass of milk and a nice book.
Miami makes magic
In the second half of Miami’s 52-45 win over Louisville, the Hurricanes’ offense went with a silent snap count, ostensibly because of the hostile crowd but, in QB Cam Ward‘s estimation, it was simply because “it looks cooler.”
Cam Ward tosses 4 TDs as Miami stays perfect with win over Louisville
Miami QB Cam Ward goes off for four touchdown passes and 319 yards as the Hurricanes move to 7-0 with a win over Louisville.
This is the vibe Miami’s operating with right now. At 7-0, and despite three straight nail-biters, the Canes are basically just doing what they want offensively because Ward is all but unstoppable.
Midway through the second quarter, Miami went for it on fourth-and-1 from its own 25. Receiver Sammy Brown‘s explanation: “If a team can stop us four straight plays, kudos to them.”
Miami led by seven at the half, and Ward’s message to his teammates as they walked off the field: “Don’t worry. We ain’t done.”
Miami benefited from some controversial officiating for the third straight week, and all Mario Cristobal had to say was, “The head official’s cat has been returned safe and sound, and any perceived threats were taken completely out of context.”
OK, we made that last one up, but the rest of Miami’s secret formula seems unimpeachable. Ward threw for 319 yards and four touchdowns — to four different receivers. The ground game came to life to the tune of 219 yards. And the officials went to replay on a critical call that worked out for Miami. Rinse, repeat.
Cook makes heroic return
Missouri rallied past Auburn 21-17 on Saturday thanks to a legendary performance by QB Brady Cook.
Cook went down with an ankle injury on the first series of the game. He was taken to the hospital for an MRI, and Missouri said he was unlikely to return.
But Cook had other plans.
Drinkwitz said Cook went to the hospital for an MRI during the game. He told the team “I’ve only got 2 1/2 games left on Faurot Field, I’m not missing this one in the hospital.”
— Power Mizzou (@PowerMizzoucom) October 19, 2024
In what would be a central plot point in any football movie ever made, Cook emerged from the ER with little more than a sore ankle and $1,200 toward his deductible, then returned to the field in the third quarter, rescuing Missouri from a 17-3 deficit and engineering two fourth-quarter touchdown drives in the win. This marked the first game in SEC history in which a QB left a hospital bed to beat a team whose coach once won a game from a hospital bed.
Ultimately, the performance will be remembered in Missouri football lore and served as a reminder that a guy who spent half a game in an MRI machine is still better than anything Michigan can find at QB.
Noles dig below rock-bottom
This is not the first season that has gone horribly wrong for Florida State. Much of the past 20 years has been a roller coaster between 10-win seasons and utter misery. But at no point in 22 previous meetings had the Seminoles reached this depth: a loss to Duke.
But this year is something special. It isn’t just bad. It is cartoonishly awful, the type of ritualistic embarrassment typically reserved for Wile E. Coyote. On Friday, the receivers dropped nearly a half dozen easy catches, the offense turned it over on three straight plays and at one point, we’re fairly certain Mike Norvell was just standing on the sideline holding up a sign that read “Yikes.”
Florida State turned the ball over four times in the game, went 2-of-14 on third downs, and despite holding Duke to just 180 total yards of offense, still lost, 23-16. FSU could’ve tied it on its final drive after having a first down at the Blue Devils’ 38 with 1:23 to play, but the Noles proceeded to lose 24 yards over their next four plays before running into the side of a mountain that Manny Diaz had painted to look like a tunnel.
FSU’s decline from last season’s 13-0 ACC championship team is baffling, but there is one possible explanation for the precipitous fall, and it involves Norvell meeting the devil at the crossroads of I-10 and Thomasville Road before last season.
Devil: “How would you like it if I ensured you won every regular-season game en route to an ACC title?”
Norvell: “OK, but what’s the catch, an awful postseason game?”
Devil: “Oh, you’ll play Georgia in your bowl game — and everyone will be talking about it afterward.”
Norvell: “That actually sounds OK. But surely there’s a catch. Is the 2024 team going to be a mess?”
Devil: “Why, I’ll actually make sure you land a five-star QB and a bunch of Alabama players in the transfer portal.”
Norvell: “Wow, that’s great but, I’m still a bit dubious.”
Devil: “You’ll also have two legitimate All-America candidates on your 2024 team.”
Norvell: “Wait, it’s not going to be the kicker and punter, is it?”
Devil: “Look, are you going to sign the paperwork or not? I’ve got an 11:30 with Hugh Freeze, and if I’m late, he starts blaming his players.”
You mess with the bull …
BYU stayed undefeated thanks to a late rally by QB Jake Retzlaff, culminating in a 35-yard touchdown pass to secure the 38-35 win over Oklahoma State on Friday. The Cougars are 7-0, and after the game, Retzlaff called the win “spiritual,” adding “how can you not be romantic about this game?” Unfortunately for Retzlaff, it is against BYU’s code of conduct to be romantic about the game.
BYU fans go wild on late game-winning TD
BYU’s Darius Lassiter sends the crowd into a frenzy after hauling in a miraculous touchdown catch in the waning moments against Oklahoma State.
Alan Bowman came off the bench in relief of an injured Garret Rangel and helped ignite the Cowboys’ passing game, including a touchdown throw with just 1:13 to play that gave Oklahoma State the lead. But the Cowboys’ defense fell apart in the final minute, allowing BYU to march 75 yards on eight plays in just over a minute of action.
Oklahoma State is now 0-4 in Big 12 play, and Mike Gundy may be the only coach in the country who can rightly say being attacked by a cow wasn’t the worst thing that happened to him last week.
Week 8 vibe shifts
Each week, there are huge wins, massive upsets and astonishing plays that help define the college football season. But there are also plenty of smaller moments that subtly shift the landscape, and we try to track those moments here.
Trending down: Michigan‘s ranking
Despite two ugly losses and a complete lack of a coherent passing attack, Michigan remained in the AP poll this past week. That should change after Saturday’s 21-7 defeat at the hands of Illinois.
Michigan has now lost as many times in its past six games as it had in the prior three seasons, though Saturday’s mess was especially cruel. Illinois prevailed despite its starting quarterback, Luke Altmyer, completing just 9 of 18 throws for 80 yards, leading an incredulous Sherrone Moore to ask why that type of QB production never works for Michigan.
After Week 8, the two teams that played for last year’s national championship — Michigan and the Washington Huskies — are now 8-6 in 2024.
Trending down: Winless teams
And then there were two.
On Wednesday, UTEP scored win No. 1 by upending Florida International 30-21. That leaves just two FBS teams still in search of win No. 1.
Kennesaw State, which became an FBS member this year, is now 0-6 after a woeful 14-5 loss to MTSU on Tuesday. Thankfully, Atlanta-area fans are already so numb to October misery because of the Atlanta Braves that it doesn’t really matter.
Meanwhile, Kent State — next to Kennesaw State alphabetically and metaphorically — lost to Bowling Green 27-6. The Golden Flashes are now 0-7 and riding the nation’s longest losing streak at 16 straight games, which if you don’t count the Cleveland Browns, makes them Ohio’s most embarrassing football team.
Trending down: Men of Troy
Fun fact: Florida State isn’t the only 2023 conference champion that won double-digit games last season to open this one 1-6. Troy is also horrible, though unfortunately for Mike Norvell, far fewer people have noticed. After winning 25 games over the past two seasons, the Trojans dropped to 1-6 with a 25-9 loss to South Alabama on Tuesday.
But that wasn’t even close to the worst moment for the teams named after a people most famous for being catfished by a wooden horse.
USC blew a 21-7 second-half lead to Maryland, falling 29-28 in the latest of a series of brutal fourth-quarter defeats. The Trojans lined up for a potential game-sealing field goal with two minutes left, but Maryland’s Donnell Brown blocked it, and the Terps found the end zone with 53 seconds to play to win the game. It’s USC’s fourth loss this season, all coming after holding a lead in the final quarter.
USC is now 5-9 in its past 14 games, which proves that those Lincoln Riley voodoo dolls Barry Switzer has been selling outside Oklahoma Memorial Stadium really do work.
Trending up: Strategic use of the rulebook
This week, the NCAA moved to close the loophole in the rulebook that allowed Oregon‘s Dan Lanning to strategically put a 12th man on defense in order to take a small penalty but also run some time off the clock late in a win over Ohio State.
Lanning didn’t need to worry about running out the clock Friday in a 35-0 rout of woeful Purdue, but just to keep the NCAA on its toes, he did attempt to disguise a play by having Dillon Gabriel wear a fake mustache and sunglasses, gained an edge on rush defense by laying out those spikes police use in high-speed chases, and in the second half, used a golden retriever at wideout. The dog finished with six catches for 87 yards and a belly rub.
Trending up: Winning easy
Eight weeks into the season, not only are Army and Indiana undefeated, but neither team has trailed at any point this season.
On Saturday, the Black Knights cruised past East Carolina 45-28 behind Bryson Daily‘s six total touchdowns, while the Hoosiers drubbed Nebraska 56-7 in a game that feels like it had to be Scott Frost’s fault somehow.
Army has the nation’s longest winning streak at 11 games and hasn’t trailed in a game in almost a full calendar year — since Oct. 28, 2023, against UMass. For context, losing to UMass before going on an 11-game winning streak without ever falling behind is roughly the same as if Army had thwarted Mussolini in World War II only after losing a pivotal battle to the front-of-house staff at an Olive Garden.
Indiana’s rise is even more unexpected given that many people in Bloomington had been unaware the Hoosiers had a football team until a month ago, but Curt Cignetti has turned one of the country’s most moribund programs into a genuine Big Ten power, which raises the question: Can Cignetti also coach basketball?
Trending up: Mascot divorce
It was a rough day for the NC State Wolfpack‘s Mr. Wuf, who learned — like so many in the ACC have this season — that Oski is a smooth operator.
— Sickos Committee (@SickosCommittee) October 20, 2024
As for the action on the field, however, it was another brutal defeat for the California Golden Bears, who missed a chip-shot field goal with 1:34 to play that would’ve won it. Cal has now lost four straight by a combined total of nine points. Also, Oski now has to drive Mrs. Wuf’s kids to soccer practice every Thursday, which is going to really interfere with his bowling league.
Dark days in Norman
How bad are things at Oklahoma right now? On Saturday, South Carolina led 21-0 before the Sooners had finished putting on their cleats.
Oklahoma’s first play was an interception, which South Carolina turned into a touchdown. The Sooners’ fourth play was a sack-fumble that South Carolina scooped for another touchdown. Oklahoma’s ninth play was another interception, this one returned for a score.
The lack of QB production is stunning, however, given the pedigree of Michael Hawkins, who was benched, and Jackson Arnold, who burned a redshirt to come on in relief.
After the game, Venables said the decision to use Arnold — who had been benched earlier this season after appearing in four games — was an easy one, given that it was Oklahoma’s best chance to win and reminded angry Sooners fans that this is actually all Lincoln Riley’s fault.
Irish roll again
Riley Leonard struggled through a rough first quarter Saturday against Georgia Tech, completing just 2 of 5 passes for 8 yards and an interception as the Yellow Jackets jumped out to a 7-0 lead.
After that, however, Leonard was nearly perfect.
Leonard completed his next 12 straight passes, and Notre Dame scored touchdowns on three straight drives, marching past Georgia Tech 31-13. For the game, Leonard threw for 203 yards, ran for 51 and scored two rushing touchdowns.
Notre Dame is now 6-1, well positioned for the playoff and, after early offensive struggles, has now put up more than 30 points in three straight games. This could either be a sign the Northern Illinois loss was a complete fluke or, perhaps more likely, getting to play three straight ACC teams solves a lot of problems for anyone’s offense.
Cyclones survive
Iowa State escaped a near-catastrophe Saturday, squeezing out a 38-35 win over UCF thanks to a Rocco Becht touchdown run with 30 seconds left in the game.
That the Cyclones even had a chance late came largely because of UCF’s own incompetence. Braeden Marshall intercepted Becht in the second half and appeared to cruise into the end zone for a pick-six, only he forgot to bring the football with him.
UCF player drops the ball before he reaches the end zone
Braeden Marshall drops the ball at the 1-yard line after picking off Iowa State’s Rocco Becht, forcing the pick-six touchdown to be called back.
In most years, this would qualify as the most embarrassing football performance by a team from Florida, but 2024 has been a rough one.
Regardless, the Cyclones survived despite trailing by 14 in the third quarter, allowing 354 yards on the ground and turning the ball over twice in the game. Iowa State is now 7-0 to start a season for the first time since 1938.
Heisman five
Travis Hunter left Colorado’s game with an injury for the second straight week, which knocks him out of our Heisman contenders for now but did allow him to focus on refining his punting skills so he can be used in all three phases of the game when he’s healthy again.
1. Boise State RB Ashton Jeanty
The Broncos were off in Week 8, which forced Jeanty to find other ways to embarrass Mountain West defenses and, long story short, Wyoming should’ve known better than to try to stamp out that flaming bag with its new boots.
Ward threw for four touchdowns in a rollicking win over Louisville on Saturday. More importantly, he helped the Canes secure the Schnellenberger Trophy, which is a bronzed pair of Howard Schnellenberger’s cowboy boots. It’s a fine trophy, but it would’ve been much cooler if the win meant Ward was forced to grow a distinguished-looking white mustache instead. That’s Schnellenberger’s real legacy.
3. Army QB Bryson Daily
Daily had six touchdowns in a win over East Carolina, including a 17-yarder that featured a video game spin move.
Touchdown! Bryson Daily scores vs. East Carolina
Touchdown! Bryson Daily scores vs. East Carolina
For the season, Daily now has six passing touchdowns and 14 rushing touchdowns, and he has successfully thwarted Hydra’s attempts at world domination.
4. Navy QB Blake Horvath
Horvath threw for 117 yards and three touchdowns in a dominant 51-17 win over Charlotte on Saturday. Horvath now has 10 passing touchdowns this season — or the same as Navy’s total all of last year. It’s also more than Iowa has had in a season since 2021.
5. Clemson QB Cade Klubnik
In a Week 1 drubbing by Georgia, Klubnik threw an interception, averaged just 4.9 yards per pass and fell for the old “What’s that on your shirt?” trick before Mykel Williams flicked him in the nose. Since then, though, the Clemson QB has been borderline unstoppable, completing 67% of his throws with 24 total touchdowns, 2 picks and a 90.8 Total QBR, second only to Ward among FBS passers.
Under-the-radar play of the week
It’s entirely possible that half the pages in Idaho‘s playbook are taken up by this one play.
Backyard football 🤙@VandalFootball is going deep into their bag of tricks #ExperienceElevated pic.twitter.com/OPgmgwtEXG
— Big Sky Conference (@BigSkyConf) October 19, 2024
The Vandals ran the triple-reverse flea-flicker for a 21-yard touchdown against Cal Poly on Saturday and went on to win 34-29.
It seems unfair that Idaho should have so many players capable of properly executing a forward pass when Michigan doesn’t have any.
Under-the-radar game of the week
The Dakota Marker belongs to North Dakota State after Cam Miller hit RaJa Nelson for a 20-yard touchdown with 1:49 to play Saturday to give the Bison a 13-9 win over South Dakota State.
Cam Miller finds RaJa Nelson for go-ahead North Dakota State TD
Cam Miller combines again with RaJa Nelson to give North Dakota State the lead late vs. South Dakota State.
The win marks the latest chapter in the ongoing rivalry between the two states, who’ve long battled for the moniker of “state least likely for the average ninth-grader to identify on a map.” It also snapped a five-game winning streak in the rivalry for South Dakota State, and it was the first time the Bison won the Dakota Marker on their home field since 2018. Miller threw for two touchdown passes — both to Nelson.
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College Football Playoff Anger Index: B1G love, BYU disrespect and more outrage
Published
12 hours agoon
November 6, 2024By
admin-
David Hale, ESPN Staff WriterNov 5, 2024, 07:43 PM ET
Close- College football reporter.
- Joined ESPN in 2012.
- Graduate of the University of Delaware.
It’s a new era for the College Football Playoff, with the field growing from four to 12 this season. That means three times as many programs will gain entry, but, beginning with Tuesday’s initial playoff rankings, there’s three times as much room for outrage, too.
Under the old rules, there was a simple line of demarcation that separated the elated from the angry: Who’s in?
Now, there are so many more reasons for nitpicking the committee’s decisions, from first-round byes to hosting a home game to whether your supposedly meaningful conference has been eclipsed by teams from the Group of 5.
And if the first rankings are any indication, it’s going to be a fun year for fury. There’s little logic to be taken from the initial top 25 beyond the committee’s clear love for the Big Ten. Penn State and Indiana make the top eight despite having only one win combined over an ESPN FPI top-40 team (Penn State over Iowa). That Ohio State checks in at No. 2 ahead of Georgia is the most inexplicable decision involving Georgia since Charlie Daniels suggested the devil lost that fiddle contest. Oregon is a reasonable No. 1, but the Ducks still came within a breath of losing to Boise State. Indeed, the Big Ten’s nonconference record against the Power 4 this season is 6-8, just a tick better than the ACC and well behind the SEC’s mark of 10-6.
But this is the fun of early November rankings. The committee is still finding its footing, figuring out what to prioritize and what to ignore, what’s signal and what’s noise. And that’s where the outrage really helps. It’s certainly not signal, but it can be a really loud noise.
This week’s Anger Index:
There are only two possible explanations for BYU’s treatment in this initial ranking. The first is that the committee members are too sleepy to watch games beyond the Central time zone. The second, and frankly, less rational one, is they simply didn’t do much homework.
It’s certainly possible the committee members are so enthralled with metrics such as the FPI (where BYU ranks 28th) or SP+ (22nd) that they’ve determined the Cougars’ actual record isn’t as important. This is incredibly foolish. The FPI and SP+ certainly have their value, but they’re probabilistic metrics, designed to gauge the likelihood of future success. They’re in no way a ranking of actual results. (That’s why USC is still No. 17 in the FPI, despite Lincoln Riley spending his days wistfully scrolling through old pictures of Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray and wondering if Oklahoma might want to get back together.)
To look at actual results paints a clear picture.
BYU (No. 4) has a better strength of record than Ohio State (No. 5), has played roughly the same quality schedule as Texas and has two wins against other teams ranked in the committee’s top 25 — as many as Ohio State, Texas, Penn State, Tennessee and Indiana (all ranked ahead of the Cougars) combined.
Indiana’s rags-to-riches story is wonderful, of course, but how can the committee compare what BYU has done (wins over SMU and Kansas State) against Indiana’s 103rd-ranked strength of schedule?
And this particular snub has significant effects. The difference between No. 8 and No. 9 is a home game in the first round, of course, though as a potential conference champion, that’s a moot point. But what if BYU loses a game — perhaps the Big 12 title game? That could not only doom the Cougars from getting a first-round bye, but it could quite likely set up a scenario in which the Big 12 is shuffled outside the top four conferences entirely, passed by upstart Boise State.
What’s clear from this first round of rankings is the committee absolutely loves the Big Ten — with four teams ranked ahead of a subjectively more accomplished BYU team — and the Big 12 is going to face some serious headwinds.
There’s a great, though little watched, TV show from the 2010s called “Rectify,” about a man who escapes death row after new evidence is found, only to be constantly harassed by the same system that fraudulently locked him away for 20 years. This is basically the story of SMU.
Let’s do a quick blind résumé here.
Team A: 8-1 record, No. 13 strength of record, two wins vs. ranked opponents, loss to SP+ No. 22, .578 opponent win percentage
Team B: 7-1 record, No. 15 strength of record, two wins vs. ranked opponents, loss to SP+ No. 91, .567 opponent win percentage
OK, you probably guessed Team A is SMU. The Mustangs have wins against Louisville and Pitt — both relatively emphatic — and their lone loss came to No. 9 BYU, which came before a quarterback change and included five red zone drives that amounted to only six total points.
Team B? That’s Notre Dame. The Irish have the worst loss by far (to Northern Illinois) of any team in the top 25, beat a common opponent by the same score (though, while SMU outgained Louisville by 20 yards, the Cardinals actually outgained Notre Dame by 115) and have played one fewer game.
The difference? SMU has the stigma — of the death penalty, of the upstart program new to the Power 4, of being unworthy. Notre Dame is the big brand, and that results in being ranked three spots higher and, if the playoff were held today, getting in, while the Mustangs are left out.
There are three two-loss SEC teams ranked ahead of Ole Miss, which seems to be a perfectly reasonable consensus if you look at the AP poll, too. But are we sure that’s so reasonable?
Two stats we like to look at to measure a team’s quality are success rate (how often does a team make a play that improves its odds of winning) and explosiveness. Measure the differentials in each between offense and defense, then plot those out, and you’ll get a pretty clear look of who’s truly dominant in college football this season.
Explosive Play differential vs. Successful Play differential
Auburn & Ark make no sense
Iowa & Iowa St are twinsies!
Is Ole Miss undervalued? pic.twitter.com/h87SKCdOtr— 💫🅰️♈️🆔 (@ADavidHaleJoint) November 3, 2024
That outer band that features Penn State, Texas, Miami, Ohio State and Indiana (and notably, not Oregon, Alabama, LSU or Texas A&M)? That’s where Ole Miss lives.
The Rebels have two losses this season, each by three points, both in games they outgained the winning team. They lost to LSU on the road and, yes, somehow lost to a dismal Kentucky team. But hey, LSU lost to USC, too. It has been a weird season.
SP+ loves Ole Miss. The Rebels check in at No. 4 there, behind only Ohio State, Texas and Georgia.
The FPI agrees, ranking the Rebels fifth.
In ESPN’s game control metric, no team is better. Ole Miss has the third-best average in-game win percentage. That suggests a lot of strange twists, and bad luck was involved with its losses. These are things the committee should be evaluating when comparing like teams.
But how about this comparison?
Team A: 7-2, 23 points per game scoring margin vs. FBS, 1 loss to unranked, three wins vs. SP+ top 40
Team B: 7-2, 19 points per game scoring margin vs. FBS, 1 loss to unranked, three wins vs. SP+ top 40
Pretty similar, eh?
Of course, one of them is Ole Miss. That’s Team A this time around.
Team B is Alabama, ranked five spots higher.
Sure, this situation can be resolved quite easily this weekend with a win over Georgia, but Ole Miss starting at the back of the pack of SEC contenders seems like a miss by the committee, even if the math will change substantially before the next rankings are revealed.
Oh, thanks so much for the No. 25 nod, committee. All Army has done is win every game without trailing the entire season. Last season, when Liberty waltzed through its weakest-in-the-nation schedule, the committee had no objections to giving the Flames enough love to make a New Year’s Six bowl. But Army? At No. 25? Thirteen spots behind Boise State, the Knights’ competition for the Group of 5’s bid? Something tells us some spies from Air Force have infiltrated the committee’s room in some sort of Manchurian Candidate scenario.
Sure, the Seminoles are terrible now, and yes, the committee this season has plenty of new faces, but that doesn’t mean folks in Tallahassee have forgiven or forgotten what happened a year ago. Before the committee’s playoff snub, FSU had won 19 straight games and averaged 39 points. Since the snub, the Noles are 1-9 and haven’t scored 21 points in any game. Who’s to blame for this? Mike Norvell? The coaching staff? DJ Uiagalelei and the other struggling QBs? Well, sure. But it’s much easier to just blame the committee. Those folks killed Florida State’s playoff hopes and ended their run of success. The least they could do this year is rank them No. 25 just for fun.
Also angry: South Carolina (5-3, unranked), Vanderbilt (6-3, unranked), Georgia (7-1, No. 3), Louisville (6-3, No. 22), everyone who is not in the Big Ten.
Sports
Alabama A&M LB Burnett remains hospitalized
Published
13 hours agoon
November 6, 2024By
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Associated Press
Nov 5, 2024, 01:04 PM ET
HUNTSVILLE, Ala. — Alabama A&M linebacker Medrick Burnett Jr. remains hospitalized after sustaining a head injury during a game.
Burnett was still in the hospital Tuesday, according to an Alabama A&M spokesperson. The school hasn’t disclosed details of the injury Burnett suffered during a collision against Alabama State on Oct. 26.
A fundraising request on gofundme.com had raised more than $17,000 of a $100,000 goal as of Tuesday, and the school also set up an emergency relief fund. The gofundme goal included money to help the family pay for housing so they could be with him.
“He had several brain bleeds and swelling of the brain,” Burnett’s sister, Dominece, wrote in a post on the page. “He had to have a tube to drain to relieve the pressure, and after 2 days of severe pressure, we had to opt for a craniotomy, which was the last resort to help try to save his life.”
An update on Saturday said Burnett had had complications, but didn’t elaborate.
Burnett is a second-year freshman from Lakewood, California. He transferred from Grambling State during the offseason.
Sports
Sources: Huskers adding Holgorsen as consultant
Published
13 hours agoon
November 6, 2024By
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Pete Thamel, ESPNNov 5, 2024, 10:41 AM ET
Close- College Football Senior Writer for ESPN. Insider for College Gameday.
Nebraska is adding former Houston and West Virginia head coach Dana Holgorsen to the staff as an offensive consultant, sources told ESPN.
Holgorsen will work with the offensive staff in a role that will evolve as the season goes on, per sources. Holgorsen joins the staff after spending this season with TCU as an offensive consultant.
He joins Nebraska at a time when the offense — and freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola — have been mired in a rut of uneven play and the team is on a three-game losing streak.
In Nebraska’s six conference games, the Cornhuskers rank No. 12 in the Big Ten in offense, No. 14 in rushing offense and No. 11 in passing offense. Offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield has drawn criticism during Nebraska’s recent offensive slump, which has seen a dip in the passing game of Raiola, who was ESPN’s No. 11 recruit and the top pocket passer in the 2024 recruiting class.
Raiola has the third-most interceptions among Big Ten quarterbacks with eight, trailing Michigan State‘s Aidan Chiles (11) and USC‘s Miller Moss (9), who is being benched by the Trojans in favor of Jayden Maiava for next week’s matchup with the Cornhuskers.
In the past four games, Raiola has thrown just one touchdown and six interceptions. After starting 5-1, Nebraska is 5-4 and needs a win during a tough closing stretch to clinch the program’s first bowl game since 2016. That’s the longest drought of any team in power conference football.
Nebraska has a bye this week before next week’s visit to USC.
In adding Holgorsen, they are bringing in a coach who is a noted quarterback tutor and author of prolific offenses. Over the years he has worked with a slew of top college quarterbacks as an assistant and head coach — Graham Harrell, Case Keenum, Brandon Weeden, Geno Smith, Will Grier and Clayton Tune.
Holgorsen arrived in Lincoln on Monday, per sources.
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