Tesla Full Self-Driving is getting more dangerous as it get better
I just came back from driving about 200 miles (350 km) using Tesla’s (Supervised) Full Self-Driving, and the system is getting better, but it’s also getting more dangerous as it gets better.
The risk of complacency is scary.
Last weekend, I went on a road trip that covered about 200 miles from Shawinigan to Quebec City and back, and I used Tesla’s (Supervised) Full Self-Driving (FSD), v12.5.4.1 to be precise, on almost the entire trip.
Here’s the good and the bad, and the fact that the former is melting into the latter.
The Good
The system is increasingly starting to feel more natural. The way it handles merging, lane changes, and intersections feels less robotic and more like a human driver.
The new camera-based driver monitoring system is a massive upgrade from the steering wheel torque sensor that Tesla has used for years. I only had one issue with it where it kept giving me alerts to pay attention to the road even though I was doing just that, and it eventually shut FSD down for the drive because of it.
But this happened only once in the few weeks since I’ve used the latest update.
For the first time, I can get good chunks of city driving without any intervention or disengagement. It’s still far from perfect, but there’s a notable improvement.
It stopped to let pedestrians cross the street, it handled roundabouts fairly well, and it drives at more natural speeds on country roads (most of the time).
The system is getting good to the point that it can induce some dangerous complacency. More on that later.
As I have been saying for years, if Tesla was developing this technology in a vacuum and not selling it to the public as “about to become unsupervised self-driving”, most people would be impressed by it.
The Bad
Over those ~200 miles, I had five disengagements, including a few that were getting truly dangerous. It was seemingly about to run a red light once and a stop another time.
I say seemingly because it is getting hard to tell sometimes due to FSD often approaching intersections with stops and red traffic lights more aggressively.
It used to drive closer to how I’ve been driving my EVs forever, which consists of slowly decelerating using regenerative braking when approaching a stop. But this latest FSD update often maintains a higher speed, getting into those intersections and brakes more aggressively, often using mechanical brakes.
This is a strange behavior that I don’t like, but I started at least getting the feeling of it, which makes me somewhat confident that FSD would blow that red light and stop sign on those two occasions.
Another disengagement appeared to be due to sun glare in the front cameras. I am getting more of that this time of year as I drive more often during the sunsets, which happen earlier in the day.
It appears to be a real problem with Tesla’s current FSD configuration.
On top of the disengagement, I had an incalculable number of interventions. Interventions are when the driver has to input a command, but it’s not enough to disengage FSD. That’s mainly due to the fact that I keep having to activate my turn signal to tell the system to go back into the right lane after passing.
FSD only goes back into the right lane after passing if there’s a car coming close behind you in the left lane.
I’ve shared this finding on X, and I was disappointed by the response I got. I suspected that this could be due to American drivers being an important part of the training data, and no offense as this is an issue everywhere, but American drivers tend not to respect the guidelines (and law in some places) of the left lane being only for passing on average.
There's also another thing that frustrates me so much. The car needs to go back into the right lane after passing.
You can see that this model is trained mainly on American drivers (no offense, it's something that happens everywhere, but it is commonly a more accepted practice…
— Fred Lambert (@FredericLambert) September 23, 2024
I feel like this could be an easy fix or at the very least, an option to add to the system for those who want to be good drivers even when FSD is active.
I also had an intervention where I had to press the accelerator pedal to tell FSD to turn left on a flashing green light, which it was hesitating to do as I was holding up traffic behind me.
Electrek’s Take
The scariest part for me is that FSD is getting good. If I take someone with no experience with FSD and take them on a short 10-15 mile drive, there’s a good chance I get no intervention, and they come out really impressed.
It is the same with a regular Tesla driver who consistently gets good FSD experiences.
This can build complacency with the drivers and result in paying less attention.
Fortunately, the new driver monitoring system can greatly help with that since it tracks driver attention, unlike Tesla’s previous system. However, it only takes a second of not paying attention to get into an accident, and the system allows you that second of inattention.
Furthermore, the system is getting so good at handling intersections that even if you are paying attention, you might end up blowing through a red light or stop sign, as I have mentioned above. You might feel confident that FSD is going to stop, but with its more aggressive approach to the intersection, you let it go even though it doesn’t start braking as soon as you would like it to, and then before you know it, it doesn’t brake at all.
There’s a four-way stop near my place on the south shore of Montreal that I’ve driven through many times with FSD without issue and yet, FSD v12.5.4 was seemingly about to blow right past it the other day.
Again, it’s possible that it was just braking late, but it was way too late for me to feel comfortable.
Also, while it is getting better, and better at a more noticeable pace lately, the crowdsource data, which is the only data available as Tesla refuses to release any, points to FSD being still years away from being capable of unsupervised self-driving:
Tesla would need about a 1,000x improvement in miles between disengagement.
I’ve lost a lot of faith in Tesla getting there due to things like the company’s recent claim that it completed its September goals for FSD, which included a “3x improvement in miles between critical disengagement” without any evidence that this happened.
In fact, the crowdsource data shows a regression on that front between v12.3 and v12.5.
I fear that Elon Musk’s attitude and repeated claim that FSD is incredible, combined with the fact that it actually getting better and his minions are raving about it, could lead to dangerous complacency.
Let’s be honest. Accidents with FSD are inevitable, but I think Tesla could do more to reduce the risk – mainly by being more realistic about what it is accomplishing here.
It is developing a really impressive vision-based ADAS system, but it is nowhere near on the verge of becoming unsupervised self-driving.
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Yet another big name in auto is pulling back on its EV plans, blaming slower than expected demand for electric vehicles.
Porsche drops in-house EV battery plans
Volkswagen’s luxury sports car brand, Porsche, announced this week that it no longer plans to build EV batteries in-house.
Cellforce, Porsche’s high-performance EV battery company, will shrink and only focus on research and development, rather than production.
In a statement, Porsche blamed “the slower ramp-up” of EVs and “challenging market conditions” in its biggest markets, the US and China, for the changes.
CEO Oliver Blume, confirmed the news, saying “For volume reasons and a lack of economies of scale, Porsche is no longer pursuing its own production of battery cells.” The staff reductions, will be handled in “a socially responsible matter,” Porsche said. Volkswagen’s battery unit, PowerCo, will take on several former employees.
Porsche plans to continue to continue offering internal combustion engine (ICE), hybrid, and all-electric options across every segment “well into the 2030s.”
Following the Taycan and Macan Electric, Porsche is still planning to launch the all-electric Cayenne and 718 models. The German automaker promises future models will still “bring trend-setting technologies in electromobility into series production.”
A separate report from German magazine WirtschaftsWoche claimed on Wednesday that Porsche is on the hunt for a new CEO to replace Oliver Blume.
German automaker Opel drops EV commitment plans
Porsche isn’t the only German automaker adjusting EV plans. Opel is one of the many brands under the Stellantis Group, alongside Jeep, Ram, Peugeot, Citroën, Fiat, and several others.
Although it was one of the many automakers to commit to offering an all-electric lineup, it’s now backing off its promise.
During Stellantis’ EV Day in 2021, Opel announced its intention to transition to all-electric vehicles by 2028, accompanied by a slate of new models. Former CEO Michael Lohscheller, now chief executive at Polestar, said, “As of 2028, Opel will only offer electric cars in our core market Europe.”
On Monday, the German auto giant abandoned its plans for an all-EV lineup, saying it will continue to focus on its current “multi-energy” strategy.
Opel is the first German auto brand to offer a fully electrified model for every vehicle in its lineup, including electric (EVs), plug-in (PHEVs), and even internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles.
In response to media reports claiming it has changed its strategy, the company said in a statement, “This does not have to be limited to 2028 if the demand side requires otherwise.”
Although the company will continue to focus on EVs in specific regions, like the UK, France, and Germany, it will also offer other powertrain options based on demand.
Opel, alongside British sister company Vauxhall, is one of the top-selling brands in Europe. In Germany and the UK, Opel and Vauxhall ranked first in the ever-expanding B-hatch segment through the first half of the year.
The German auto giant becomes the latest brand to scale back EV plans or shift to hybrids, following Volvo, Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz, Audi, BMW, and others.
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As it gears up to unleash an “avalanche” of new EVs, a top Kia official is warning against changing policies. Not only would it be a setback for the industry, but it would also cost the company a fortune.
Kia is warning against changing policies for EVs
Unlike some automakers (looking at you, Mercedes-Benz), Kia believes it’s best for Europe to stick to its plan to ban the sale of new cars with internal combustion engines (ICE) by 2035.
“We have an avalanche of electric cars coming,” Kia’s top executive in Europe, Marc Hedrich, said (via Automotive News). Kia’s European boss warned that if the company were to suddenly stop launching EVs, “it would cost us a Fortune.”
Hedrich’s comments come as pressure builds from other automakers, especially in Germany, to reverse the ban on new ICE cars.
Meanwhile, just a week ago, Kia’s first European-made electric vehicle, the EV4, rolled off the assembly line. The EV4 is Kia’s first electric hatchback. Unlike the sedan model, which is made in South Korea, the hatch variant is assembled at Kia’s Zilina plant in Slovakia.
Kia invested over 100 million euros ($125 million) to upgrade the facility for EV production. Next year, Kia will begin building the EV2, its new entry-level electric car that will sit below the EV3.
Hedrich’s warning is a stark contrast to Mercedes-Benz CEO Ola Kallenius, who criticized the EU’s policy earlier this month.
Kallenius said that the policy would handicap European brands, which are already struggling to compete with Chinese automakers. Instead, he is calling for tax incentives and cheaper power prices to support the transition to EVs.
When asked about Kallenius’ comments, Hedrich took a slight jap, saying, “That is the same guy who a few years ago promised his company would only sell EVs in Europe by 2030.”
EU President Ursula von der Leyen is set to meet with several top European automotive executives to devise a plan to ensure the sector remains competitive.
Kia does not support a delay, Hedrich made clear, with several EVs set to arrive over the next few months. After launching the EV3 and EV9 in 2024, Kia opened orders for the EV4 (hatchback and sedan variants) earlier this year. The company’s EV5 SUV is set to launch later this year, followed by the smaller EV2. Both the EV2 and EV4 will be assembled in Slovakia to expedite deliveries.
Electrek’s Take
The EV3 is already the best-selling electric vehicle among retail buyers in the UK and sixth in Europe through the first half of the year.
With the EV4 and EV5 joining the lineup this year, followed by the EV2 in 2026, why would Kia support going backwards? And that’s not to mention Kia’s new PBV electric van business, which kicked off with the PV5 this year.
Even investing in new plug-in hybrid (PHEV) and extended-range electric vehicle (EREV) technology at this point seems a little late to the party.
As Hedrich put it, “PHEVs are definitely a transition technology which is highly dependent on local government rules.” Since the rules vary by region, “it’s extremely difficult to build a business case” around them, he added.
Kia’s European boss believes the EU’s ban on ICE vehicles could help German automakers. However, more competitive models are needed to boost demand, he predicted.
Do you agree with Kia? Chinese brands like BYD are quickly winning over market share with lower-cost, often more advanced EVs. And European automakers are almost entirely dependent on Korean or Chinese battery makers. If automakers continue delaying the inevitable transition to EVs, they will only fall further behind in the global market.
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Environment
Tesla self-driving is still not working in Vegas’s single lane tunnels, but Elon says 50% of US this year
Tesla has reportedly begun testing self-driving features in the Boring Company’s single-lane tunnels in Las Vegas, but it is still “ways off,” according to the Las Vegas Convention Center, which owns the tunnels.
Yet, Elon Musk believes Tesla’s self-driving will cover half of the US population by the end of the year.
The Boring Company, a startup founded by Elon Musk, aims to construct single-lane tunnels beneath cities in an effort to alleviate traffic congestion.
In 2021, it began operating its first Loop, ~1.7 miles (2.7 km) of tunnels underneath the Las Vegas Convention Center (LVCC), with Tesla vehicles ferrying passengers between three stations around the convention center.
LVCC was the first to trust the Boring Company to deploy its ‘Loop’ and the service has been underwhelming so far, but The Boring Company did expand the network a bit in Las Vegas, connecting the LVCC Loop to a few hotels with new tunnels.
Elon Musk stated that the ultimate goal was for self-driving Tesla vehicles to transport people through these tunnels at high speeds.
Many people noted that a controlled environment with single-lane tunnels, devoid of other vehicles or pedestrians, would be the easiest environment to deploy self-driving technology. However, four years after launching the LVCC Loop, The Boring Company is still using Tesla vehicles with human chauffeurs.
Steve Hill, CEO of the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA), confirmed to Fortune that The Boring Company started testing Tesla’s autonomous driving in the Vegas Loop, but he believes it is still “ways off”.
He shared some details about the testing so far:
Thus far, all of the initial testing has been done with the standard Full Self-Driving (FSD) software that consumers can get in their personal Tesla vehicles, and with a Boring Company safety operator in the driver’s seat, according to Hill, who awarded the Boring Company its first transportation contract and who has overseen all of Boring’s initial construction and tunneling in the broader County thus far. Hill said that Boring Company is operating the vehicles, but was unsure of Tesla’s exact role in the testing apart from furnishing the vehicles and the self-driving software. There have been no scrapes or accidents thus far, though safety drivers have “periodically” had to intervene and take control of the vehicles, Hill said.
Nonetheless, Hill believes that the loop will eventually become autonomous, but he is unsure when this will happen.
While they are still working on making self-driving work in those single-lane tunnels, CEO Elon Musk said that Tesla’s Robotaxi service will cover half of the US population by the end of the year.
Electrek’s Take
As I previously stated, there’s no way that Tesla could cover half of the US population with an actual Robotaxi service by the end of the year.
But the fact that it doesn’t actually operate any real Robotaxi service changes things.
In the Bay Area, Tesla claims to have launched its “Robotaxi”, but it is essentially using its Supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) feature with Tesla employees supervising the vehicles from the driver’s seat.
This is basically the same thing as an Uber driver who has a Tesla with FSD.
Therefore, technically, Tesla could cover half of the US population by recruiting a few drivers in all 40 biggest metro markets in the US to drive around in Tesla vehicles with FSD and claim that its “Robotaxi” covers half of the US population.
It would be a ridiculous thing to do and only celebrated by the most cultish of Tesla fans, but at this point, I wouldn’t be shocked.
My personal opinion is that the right thing to do is to deliver on what you promised: unsupervised self-driving in consumer vehicles built since 2016 and the promises made to other customers, such as the Las Vegas Convention Center.
If your self-driving technology is not working in a single-lane tunnel without other road users, it will not work on surface streets.
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