Tesla (TSLA) is about to release Q3 2024 financial results on Wednesday, October 23, after the markets close. As usual, a conference call and Q&A with Tesla’s management are scheduled after the results.
Here, we’ll look at what the street and retail investors expect for the quarterly results.
Tesla Q3 2024 deliveries
Elon Musk says that Tesla is now an AI/Robotics company, but its automotive business still drives its financials.
Earlier this month, Tesla disclosed its Q3 2024 vehicle production and deliveries:
Production
Deliveries
Subject to operating lease accounting
Model 3/Y
443,668
439,975
3%
Other Models
26,128
22,915
1%
Total
469,796
462,890
3%
The deliveries were roughly in line with Wall Street’s expectations.
Now that energy storage is starting to contribute to Tesla’s revenue more meaningfully, the company has also started sharing deployment in its quarterly delivery and production numbers.
Tesla confirmed that it deployed 6.9 GWh of energy storage capacity in Q3 2024.
Tesla Q3 2024 revenue
For revenue, analysts generally have a pretty good idea of what to expect, thanks to the delivery numbers, and now the energy storage deployment data.
However, Tesla’s average price per vehicle is changing a lot these days due to frequent price cuts and discounts across many markets, which makes things more difficult.
The Wall Street consensus for this quarter is $25.468 billion, and Estimize, the financial estimate crowdsourcing website, predicts a slighty higher revenue of $25.541 billion.
Here are the predictions for Tesla’s revenue over the past two years, with Estimize predictions in blue, Wall Street consensus in gray, and actual results are in green:
Interestingly, the expectations are now roughly the same revenue as Tesla achieved last quarter despite Tesla delivering almost 20,000 additional vehicles.
The difference makers are likely the fact that Tesla deployed about 3 GWh less energy storage, which contributed $3 billion to revenue last quarter and the regulatory credit sales, which are hard to predict.
Tesla Q3 2024 earnings
Tesla always attempts to be marginally profitable every quarter as it invests most of its money into growth, and it has been successful in doing so over the last three years.
However, like revenues, it has been harder to estimate earnings over the last year with price cuts and subsidized loans digging into Tesla’s industry-leading gross margins.
For Q3 2024, the Wall Street consensus is a gain of $0.60 per share, which Estimize’s crowdsourced prediction.
Tesla had earnings of $0.66 per share during the same period last year.
Here are the earnings per share over the last two years, where Estimize predictions are in blue, Wall Street consensus is in gray, and actual results are in green:
Tesla has rarely beaten EPS estimates over the last year, and the difference maker is often Tesla’s regulatory credit sales.
Other expectations for the TSLA shareholder’s letter and analyst call
Beyond the financial results, Tesla always gives broader updates and answers shareholder questions in its shareholder letter and conference call with management following the release of the results.
Tesla gathers questions from shareholders from the “Say Technologies” website.
Here are the currently most upvoted questions, which are likely to be answered by management, and my comments on them:
Is Tesla still on track to deliver the more affordable model next year, as mentioned by Elon earlier, and how does it align with your AI and product roadmap?”
Musk’s general answer to product questions on earnings calls is “this is not the place for product announcements”, but the fact that the question also mentions Tesla’s AI shift could lead him to comment and clarify Tesla’s plans for vehicles with steering wheels.
When can we expect Tesla to give us the ~$25K, non-robotaxi, regular car model?
As we have previously reported, this vehicle program was canceled by Musk earlier this year and replaced by new vehicle programs based on Model 3 and Model Y that will be more expensive than $25,000, but less expensive than the current ~$40,000 versions of these vehicles.
What is Tesla doing to alleviate long waiting times on service centers ?
More of a consumer-related question, but not a bad one. Tesla is indeed having issues with unacceptable wait times at service centers in some regions. It has been a recurring problem for Tesla, but it became a bigger problem with the layoffs earlier this year.
If Musk gives again his answer of “the best service is no service”, people are going to start taking it with a different meaning.
What’s the plan for 2025?
This is literally the fourth most upvoted question.
When will Tesla incorporate X and Grok in all of the Tesla Vehicles?
And this is the fifth most upvoted one.
Tesla then takes questions from Wall Street analysts, who I hope will be questioning Musk’s all-in bet on self-driving and why Tesla can’t share any data about its FSD program to prove the progress it is claiming to be achieving, but I won’t hold my breath.
The focus will likely be on gross margins and how much they are affected by the subsidized interest rates and discounts.
Also, as the odds of Trump winning the elections are increasing, I expect some will look at the potential impact of his policies on Tesla’s very lucrative business of selling regulatory credits.
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If you haven’t noticed, Genesis is quickly making a name for itself in the US. The luxury automaker now has 60 sales outlets as it expands into new US states. With new EVs launching, Genesis is eyeing a bigger share of the US luxury market.
Hyundai Motor Group’s Genesis brand is quietly emerging as a powerhouse in the US luxury market. Genesis marked its entry into the luxury segment in 2008 as a Hyundai-branded model.
In 2015, Hyundai announced Genesis would become an independent luxury brand. Since launching its first vehicle in the US, the luxury brand’s sales have surged from 7,000 in 2016 to over 69,000 last year. It even outsold Nissan’s Infiniti.
According to Genesis, this is just the start. The Korean luxury brand wants an even bigger slice of the market as it eyes rivals like Porsche.
A big reason behind the brand’s confidence is its new lineup of stylishly electric models. Genesis sells three EVs in the US: The GV60, Electrified G80, and Electrified GV70.
After introducing the Electrified GV70 just last year, the electric SUV is already Genesis’ top-selling EV in the US. According to Kelley Blue Book, Genesis sold 2,343 electric GV70 models in the US through September.
Genesis eyes a bigger share of the US luxury market
Altogether, the luxury brand’s EV sales reached over 4,600 through the first nine months of 2024, topping Porsche (4,291) and Volvo (3,644).
Genesis made a statement at the LA Auto Show, unveiling the updated 2026 Electrified GV70. The luxury electric SUV now includes more range and an NACS port so drivers can charge at Tesla Superchargers. It will go on sale in the first half of 2025.
Meanwhile, Genesis showcased its new GV60 Magma Concept at the event, its first dedicated high-performance EV. The brand sees its Magma performance brand rivaling that of Geman luxury brands like Mercedes AMG, BMW M, and Audi RS.
The Genesis GV60 Magma EV will launch next year, spearheading the brand’s “expansion into the realm of high-performance vehicles.”
Genesis enhanced the battery and motor while fine-tuning the chassis, thermodynamics, and profile for more power and efficiency.
It also features an aggressive new design, sitting much lower and wider than the current GV60 model. Genesis added a Magma-exclusive sound system to give it a sports car-like feel in the cockpit.
In April, we got our first look at the G80 EV Magma concept, which could be a potential challenger to Tesla’s Model S Plaid and the Porsche Taycan GT Turbo.
The luxury brand is expected to launch its flagship electric three-row SUV next year, the GV90. Genesis previewed the ultra-luxury EV in March after unveiling the Neolun concept.
Genesis now has 60 sales bases in the US, with new stores in Washington, Minnesota, New York, and Florida. It’s also building 30 in Canada as it expands its presence in the North American luxury market.
The luxury brand is opening a new dedicated design center in California. The “Genesis Design California” will open in the first half of 2025 as it builds out its US network.
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A rumor spreading like wildfire on social media claims BYD will be taking over NIO (NYSE: NIO) as the EV giant gobbles up market share in China. The rumor was posted by a suspected BYD employee, but NIO is denying the claim.
BYD acquiring NIO would be a massive move as China’s leading EV maker continues to dominate the market. But that’s not going to happen.
According to CnEVPost, NIO’s assistant vice president for branding and communications, Ma Lin, denied the rumors that BYD is taking over the company on Friday.
Ma posted a screenshot on social media asking BYD’s general manager of branding and PR, Li Yunfei if the person who posted the fake rumor was an employee.
Earlier today, the suspected employee claimed BYD and NIO were setting up a joint venture. In a Weibo post, the suspect said BYD would have majority control of the partnership with a 51% share while NIO would get the remaining 49% ownership.
Ma told Li that if it was, in fact, a BYD employee, he needed to issue an official clarification and apologize. If not, they can get the police involved together. Li also denied the rumors, saying the claim was seriously untrue.
NIO denies rumors that BYD is taking over the company
This is not the first time rumors surfaced that BYD will be taking over NIO, but because it is a suspected employee, the post has garnered more attention.
BYD is on a major hiring spree as it ramps up production to meet the higher demand. The EV giant now has over 900,000 employees, making it by far the largest A-share listed company in China.
After selling over 500,000 vehicles for the first time in a single month in October, BYD’s surge is heating up as the EV giant expands overseas for growth.
October was BYD’s fifth consecutive record sales month as it closes in on auto leaders like Ford in global deliveries.
NIO is also gaining momentum, with sales topping the 20,000 mark for the sixth straight month in October. With output of its new lower-priced Onvo L60 electric SUV ramping up, NIO expects to continue seeing higher demand.
Ma said on Friday that NIO’s “recent situation is quite good.” The company’s head of PR added, “Cash flow turned positive in the third quarter, gross profit improved in October, earning an extra RMB 100 million, and Onvo (deliveries) will exceed 10,000 in December.”
NIO is launching its third brand, Firefly, with deliveries kicking off in the first half of 2025. The company expects sales to double next year as it works to become profitable by 2026.
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Hyundai Motors is recalling 145,235 EVs and other “electrified” vehicles in the US, citing concerns about a loss of driving power, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said on Friday.
The NHTSA announced this morning that the recall affects selected IONIQ 5 and IONIQ 6 EVs, as well as certain luxury Genesis models, including the GV60, GV70, and G80 electrified variants, from the 2022-2025 model years, Reuters reported.
It looks like the issue stems from “the integrated charging control units in these vehicles, which may become damaged and fail to charge the 12-volt battery. This malfunction could lead to a complete loss of drive power, posing safety risks for drivers,” the NHTSA stated.
If you’re an owner of one of these Hyundai models dating 2022-2025, stay tuned. Hyundai has not yet provided a timeline as to when affected vehicles will be repaired.
To make that happen, the company’s dealers will inspect and replace the charging unit and its fuse if necessary, NHTSA said. Free of charge, of course.
Importantly, no crashes, injuries, fatalities, or fires due to this issue have been reported in the US, Hyundai reported.
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