Tesla (TSLA) is about to release Q3 2024 financial results on Wednesday, October 23, after the markets close. As usual, a conference call and Q&A with Tesla’s management are scheduled after the results.
Here, we’ll look at what the street and retail investors expect for the quarterly results.
Tesla Q3 2024 deliveries
Elon Musk says that Tesla is now an AI/Robotics company, but its automotive business still drives its financials.
Earlier this month, Tesla disclosed its Q3 2024 vehicle production and deliveries:
Production
Deliveries
Subject to operating lease accounting
Model 3/Y
443,668
439,975
3%
Other Models
26,128
22,915
1%
Total
469,796
462,890
3%
The deliveries were roughly in line with Wall Street’s expectations.
Now that energy storage is starting to contribute to Tesla’s revenue more meaningfully, the company has also started sharing deployment in its quarterly delivery and production numbers.
Tesla confirmed that it deployed 6.9 GWh of energy storage capacity in Q3 2024.
Tesla Q3 2024 revenue
For revenue, analysts generally have a pretty good idea of what to expect, thanks to the delivery numbers, and now the energy storage deployment data.
However, Tesla’s average price per vehicle is changing a lot these days due to frequent price cuts and discounts across many markets, which makes things more difficult.
The Wall Street consensus for this quarter is $25.468 billion, and Estimize, the financial estimate crowdsourcing website, predicts a slighty higher revenue of $25.541 billion.
Here are the predictions for Tesla’s revenue over the past two years, with Estimize predictions in blue, Wall Street consensus in gray, and actual results are in green:
Interestingly, the expectations are now roughly the same revenue as Tesla achieved last quarter despite Tesla delivering almost 20,000 additional vehicles.
The difference makers are likely the fact that Tesla deployed about 3 GWh less energy storage, which contributed $3 billion to revenue last quarter and the regulatory credit sales, which are hard to predict.
Tesla Q3 2024 earnings
Tesla always attempts to be marginally profitable every quarter as it invests most of its money into growth, and it has been successful in doing so over the last three years.
However, like revenues, it has been harder to estimate earnings over the last year with price cuts and subsidized loans digging into Tesla’s industry-leading gross margins.
For Q3 2024, the Wall Street consensus is a gain of $0.60 per share, which Estimize’s crowdsourced prediction.
Tesla had earnings of $0.66 per share during the same period last year.
Here are the earnings per share over the last two years, where Estimize predictions are in blue, Wall Street consensus is in gray, and actual results are in green:
Tesla has rarely beaten EPS estimates over the last year, and the difference maker is often Tesla’s regulatory credit sales.
Other expectations for the TSLA shareholder’s letter and analyst call
Beyond the financial results, Tesla always gives broader updates and answers shareholder questions in its shareholder letter and conference call with management following the release of the results.
Tesla gathers questions from shareholders from the “Say Technologies” website.
Here are the currently most upvoted questions, which are likely to be answered by management, and my comments on them:
Is Tesla still on track to deliver the more affordable model next year, as mentioned by Elon earlier, and how does it align with your AI and product roadmap?”
Musk’s general answer to product questions on earnings calls is “this is not the place for product announcements”, but the fact that the question also mentions Tesla’s AI shift could lead him to comment and clarify Tesla’s plans for vehicles with steering wheels.
When can we expect Tesla to give us the ~$25K, non-robotaxi, regular car model?
As we have previously reported, this vehicle program was canceled by Musk earlier this year and replaced by new vehicle programs based on Model 3 and Model Y that will be more expensive than $25,000, but less expensive than the current ~$40,000 versions of these vehicles.
What is Tesla doing to alleviate long waiting times on service centers ?
More of a consumer-related question, but not a bad one. Tesla is indeed having issues with unacceptable wait times at service centers in some regions. It has been a recurring problem for Tesla, but it became a bigger problem with the layoffs earlier this year.
If Musk gives again his answer of “the best service is no service”, people are going to start taking it with a different meaning.
What’s the plan for 2025?
This is literally the fourth most upvoted question.
When will Tesla incorporate X and Grok in all of the Tesla Vehicles?
And this is the fifth most upvoted one.
Tesla then takes questions from Wall Street analysts, who I hope will be questioning Musk’s all-in bet on self-driving and why Tesla can’t share any data about its FSD program to prove the progress it is claiming to be achieving, but I won’t hold my breath.
The focus will likely be on gross margins and how much they are affected by the subsidized interest rates and discounts.
Also, as the odds of Trump winning the elections are increasing, I expect some will look at the potential impact of his policies on Tesla’s very lucrative business of selling regulatory credits.
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Wind energy powered 20% of all electricity consumed in Europe (19% in the EU) in 2024, and the EU has set a goal to grow this share to 34% by 2030 and more than 50% by 2050.
To stay on track, the EU needs to install 30 GW of new wind farms annually, but it only managed 13 GW in 2024 – 11.4 GW onshore and 1.4 GW offshore. This is what’s holding the EU back from achieving its wind growth goals.
Three big problems holding Europe’s wind power back
Europe’s wind power growth is stalling for three key reasons:
Permitting delays. Many governments haven’t implemented the EU’s new permitting rules, making it harder for projects to move forward.
Grid connection bottlenecks. Over 500 GW(!) of potential wind capacity is stuck in grid connection queues.
Slow electrification. Europe’s economy isn’t electrifying fast enough to drive demand for more renewable energy.
Brussels-based trade association WindEurope CEO Giles Dickson summed it up: “The EU must urgently tackle all three problems. More wind means cheaper power, which means increased competitiveness.”
Permitting: Germany sets the standard
Permitting remains a massive roadblock, despite new EU rules aimed at streamlining the process. In fact, the situation worsened in 2024 in many countries. The bright spot? Germany. By embracing the EU’s permitting rules — with measures like binding deadlines and treating wind energy as a public interest priority — Germany approved a record 15 GW of new onshore wind in 2024. That’s seven times more than five years ago.
If other governments follow Germany’s lead, Europe could unlock the full potential of wind energy and bolster energy security.
Grid connections: a growing crisis
Access to the electricity grid is now the biggest obstacle to deploying wind energy. And it’s not just about long queues — Europe’s grid infrastructure isn’t expanding fast enough to keep up with demand. A glaring example is Germany’s 900-megawatt (MW) Borkum Riffgrund 3 offshore wind farm. The turbines are ready to go, but the grid connection won’t be in place until 2026.
This issue isn’t isolated. Governments need to accelerate grid expansion if they’re serious about meeting renewable energy targets.
Electrification: falling behind
Wind energy’s growth is also tied to how quickly Europe electrifies its economy. Right now, electricity accounts for just 23% of the EU’s total energy consumption. That needs to jump to 61% by 2050 to align with climate goals. However, electrification efforts in key sectors like transportation, heating, and industry are moving too slowly.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has tasked Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen with crafting an Electrification Action Plan. That can’t come soon enough.
More wind farms awarded, but challenges persist
On a positive note, governments across Europe awarded a record 37 GW of new wind capacity (29 GW in the EU) in 2024. But without faster permitting, better grid connections, and increased electrification, these awards won’t translate into the clean energy-producing wind farms Europe desperately needs.
Investments and corporate interest
Investments in wind energy totaled €31 billion in 2024, financing 19 GW of new capacity. While onshore wind investments remained strong at €24 billion, offshore wind funding saw a dip. Final investment decisions for offshore projects remain challenging due to slow permitting and grid delays.
Corporate consumers continue to show strong interest in wind energy. Half of all electricity contracted under Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) in 2024 was wind. Dedicated wind PPAs were 4 GW out of a total of 12 GW of renewable PPAs.
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In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss the official unveiling of the new Tesla Model Y, Mazda 6e, Aptera solar car production-intent, and more.
As a reminder, we’ll have an accompanying post, like this one, on the site with an embedded link to the live stream. Head to the YouTube channel to get your questions and comments in.
After the show ends at around 5 p.m. ET, the video will be archived on YouTube and the audio on all your favorite podcast apps:
We now have a Patreon if you want to help us avoid more ads and invest more in our content. We have some awesome gifts for our Patreons and more coming.
Here are a few of the articles that we will discuss during the podcast:
Here’s the live stream for today’s episode starting at 4:00 p.m. ET (or the video after 5 p.m. ET):
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The Chinese EV leader is launching a new flagship electric sedan. BYD’s new Han L EV leaked in China on Friday, revealing a potential Tesla Model S Plaid challenger.
What we know about the BYD Han L EV so far
We knew it was coming soon after BYD teased the Han L on social media a few days ago. Now, we are learning more about what to expect.
BYD’s new electric sedan appeared in China’s latest Ministry of Industry and Information Tech (MIIT) filing, a catalog of new vehicles that will soon be sold.
The filing revealed four versions, including two EV and two PHEV models. The Han L EV will be available in single- and dual-motor configurations. With a peak power of 580 kW (777 hp), the single-motor model packs more power than expected.
BYD’s dual-motor Han L gains an additional 230 kW (308 hp) front-mounted motor. As CnEVPost pointed out, the vehicle’s back has a “2.7S” badge, which suggests a 0 to 100 km/h (0 to 62 mph) sprint time of just 2.7 seconds.
To put that into perspective, the Tesla Model S Plaid can accelerate from 0 to 100 km in 2.1 seconds. In China, the Model S Plaid starts at RBM 814,900, or over $110,000. Speaking of Tesla, the EV leader just unveiled its highly anticipated Model Y “Juniper” refresh in China on Thursday. It starts at RMB 263,500 ($36,000).
BYD already sells the Han EV in China, starting at around RMB 200,000. However, the single front motor, with a peak power of 180 kW, is much less potent than the “L” model. The Han EV can accelerate from 0 to 100 km/h in 7.9 seconds.
At 5,050 mm long, 1,960 mm wide, and 1,505 mm tall with a wheelbase of 2,970 mm, BYD’s new Han L is roughly the size of the Model Y (4,970 mm long, 1,964 mm wide, 1,445 mm tall, wheelbase of 2,960 mm).
Other than that it will use a lithium iron phosphate (LFP) pack from BYD’s FinDreams unit, no other battery specs were revealed. Check back soon for the full rundown.