Tesla (TSLA) is about to release Q3 2024 financial results on Wednesday, October 23, after the markets close. As usual, a conference call and Q&A with Tesla’s management are scheduled after the results.
Here, we’ll look at what the street and retail investors expect for the quarterly results.
Tesla Q3 2024 deliveries
Elon Musk says that Tesla is now an AI/Robotics company, but its automotive business still drives its financials.
Earlier this month, Tesla disclosed its Q3 2024 vehicle production and deliveries:
Production
Deliveries
Subject to operating lease accounting
Model 3/Y
443,668
439,975
3%
Other Models
26,128
22,915
1%
Total
469,796
462,890
3%
The deliveries were roughly in line with Wall Street’s expectations.
Now that energy storage is starting to contribute to Tesla’s revenue more meaningfully, the company has also started sharing deployment in its quarterly delivery and production numbers.
Tesla confirmed that it deployed 6.9 GWh of energy storage capacity in Q3 2024.
Tesla Q3 2024 revenue
For revenue, analysts generally have a pretty good idea of what to expect, thanks to the delivery numbers, and now the energy storage deployment data.
However, Tesla’s average price per vehicle is changing a lot these days due to frequent price cuts and discounts across many markets, which makes things more difficult.
The Wall Street consensus for this quarter is $25.468 billion, and Estimize, the financial estimate crowdsourcing website, predicts a slighty higher revenue of $25.541 billion.
Here are the predictions for Tesla’s revenue over the past two years, with Estimize predictions in blue, Wall Street consensus in gray, and actual results are in green:
Interestingly, the expectations are now roughly the same revenue as Tesla achieved last quarter despite Tesla delivering almost 20,000 additional vehicles.
The difference makers are likely the fact that Tesla deployed about 3 GWh less energy storage, which contributed $3 billion to revenue last quarter and the regulatory credit sales, which are hard to predict.
Tesla Q3 2024 earnings
Tesla always attempts to be marginally profitable every quarter as it invests most of its money into growth, and it has been successful in doing so over the last three years.
However, like revenues, it has been harder to estimate earnings over the last year with price cuts and subsidized loans digging into Tesla’s industry-leading gross margins.
For Q3 2024, the Wall Street consensus is a gain of $0.60 per share, which Estimize’s crowdsourced prediction.
Tesla had earnings of $0.66 per share during the same period last year.
Here are the earnings per share over the last two years, where Estimize predictions are in blue, Wall Street consensus is in gray, and actual results are in green:
Tesla has rarely beaten EPS estimates over the last year, and the difference maker is often Tesla’s regulatory credit sales.
Other expectations for the TSLA shareholder’s letter and analyst call
Beyond the financial results, Tesla always gives broader updates and answers shareholder questions in its shareholder letter and conference call with management following the release of the results.
Tesla gathers questions from shareholders from the “Say Technologies” website.
Here are the currently most upvoted questions, which are likely to be answered by management, and my comments on them:
Is Tesla still on track to deliver the more affordable model next year, as mentioned by Elon earlier, and how does it align with your AI and product roadmap?”
Musk’s general answer to product questions on earnings calls is “this is not the place for product announcements”, but the fact that the question also mentions Tesla’s AI shift could lead him to comment and clarify Tesla’s plans for vehicles with steering wheels.
When can we expect Tesla to give us the ~$25K, non-robotaxi, regular car model?
As we have previously reported, this vehicle program was canceled by Musk earlier this year and replaced by new vehicle programs based on Model 3 and Model Y that will be more expensive than $25,000, but less expensive than the current ~$40,000 versions of these vehicles.
What is Tesla doing to alleviate long waiting times on service centers ?
More of a consumer-related question, but not a bad one. Tesla is indeed having issues with unacceptable wait times at service centers in some regions. It has been a recurring problem for Tesla, but it became a bigger problem with the layoffs earlier this year.
If Musk gives again his answer of “the best service is no service”, people are going to start taking it with a different meaning.
What’s the plan for 2025?
This is literally the fourth most upvoted question.
When will Tesla incorporate X and Grok in all of the Tesla Vehicles?
And this is the fifth most upvoted one.
Tesla then takes questions from Wall Street analysts, who I hope will be questioning Musk’s all-in bet on self-driving and why Tesla can’t share any data about its FSD program to prove the progress it is claiming to be achieving, but I won’t hold my breath.
The focus will likely be on gross margins and how much they are affected by the subsidized interest rates and discounts.
Also, as the odds of Trump winning the elections are increasing, I expect some will look at the potential impact of his policies on Tesla’s very lucrative business of selling regulatory credits.
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Lee Zeldin, Chief Saboteur of the Environmental “Protection” Agency. Photo by SecretName101 on wikimedia
Lee Zeldin, titular head of the Environmental “Protection” Agency, officially announced several efforts to harm Americans’ health, increase their fuel costs by tens of billions of dollars per year, and to ensure that US manufacturing be less competitive into the future.
Zeldin called his actions today, mostly in the form of press releases declaring rollbacks of money-saving and pollution reducing measures, “the greatest day of deregulation in US history.”
However, that’s all bad news for the enemies of America, and so today, one of them started efforts to reverse all of those positive moves.
Unfortunately for America and the world, the current occupier of the White House is convicted felon Donald Trump, who finally received more votes than his opponent on his third attempt (despite committing treason in 2021, for which there is a clear legal remedy).
Today Zeldin put that claim into action… er, well, into more talk… by releasing a swath of unspecific press releases declaring his intent to increase harm and costs for Americans in all sorts of realms.
Most of these press releases focus on the same platitudes and Orwellian doublespeak that we have come to expect from a bought-and-paid oil stooge, claiming that the efforts will reduce costs when they in fact will raise costs, and that they will somehow clean up the environment while they dirty it.
A few specific efforts are pointed out, such as trying to reverse an electric vehicle mandate that doesn’t exist, showing that Zeldin is not just hostile to Americans, but also ignorant of the policy that he’s supposed to be administering. And, flying in the face of science, an effort to remove the EPA’s endangerment finding – a scientific finding which correctly acknowledges the danger of greenhouse gas emissions.
Zeldin also uses some questionable language, such as acknowledging that he’s putting a “dagger straight into the heart” of efforts to lower your costs and rid your life of the poisons that he has been paid to spread.
However, the true effects of these initiatives has not yet been seen, and is even hard to predict given the unspecific nature of the claims made and the long timelines for US rulemaking.
US rulemaking is a long and deliberate process that requires consensus and for rulemaking to have a scientific basis. Rules cannot be “arbitrary and capricious” – which makes it hard for a group of people who embody those terms more than almost anyone on Earth to push anything through.
Further compounding Zeldin’s attempted sabotage of American interests is a recent court opinion overturning the Chevron rule. The effect of this would be that administrative agencies like the EPA have less authority to make changes on their own without going to courts or Congress first, which means that any changes made by Zeldin can potentially be challenged even moreso by the actual environmental protectors of this country – nonprofits like the Natural Resources Defense Council, Sierra Club, Environmental Defense Fund and others.
These groups had significant success in challenging moves made by corrupt oil stooge Scott Pruitt and ignorant coal lobbyist Andrew Wheeler to sabotage American health during Mr. Trump’s first occupation of the White House. The NRDC, for example, won over 90% of the cases they brought during that time frame.
And the groups are all lining up to oppose these harmful actions today.
“The Trump administration’s plans, as announced by executive order, would gut the bedrock national and state clean air standards that have been reducing air pollution and protecting communities across the country. They would also undermine investments, jobs and affordability for clean vehicles. The public has a right to know what the Trump administration is doing and why they are pursuing this harmful agenda. We are going to court to ensure they do.”
-Alice Henderson, Director and Lead Counsel for Transportation and Clean Air, Environmental Defense Fund
EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin today announced plans for the greatest increase in pollution in decades. The result will be more toxic chemicals, more cancers, more asthma attacks, and more dangers for pregnant women and their children. Rather than helping our economy, it will create chaos.
-Amanda Leland, Executive Director, Environmental Defense Fund
Donald Trump’s actions will cause thousands of Americans to die each year. It will send thousands of children to the hospital and force even more to miss school. It will pollute the air and water in communities across the country. And it will cause our energy bills to go up even more than they already are because of his disastrous policies. But as they put all of us at risk, Trump and his administration are celebrating because it will help corporate polluters pad their profit margin.
The American people should be furious. The EPA exists to protect us from serious pollution that endangers our lives and wellbeing, but Trump and Lee Zeldin are attempting to turn it into corporate polluters’ best friend.
Make no mistake about it: we will fight these outrageous rollbacks tooth and nail, and we will use all resources at our disposal to continue protecting the health and safety of all Americans.
-Ben Jealous, Executive Director, Sierra Club
Breaking faith with the American people and breaking 50 years of laws of the land, the Environmental Protection Agency today abandoned protecting human health and the environment. Repealing or weakening these important safeguards on pollution from cars, power plants, and oil producers would mean higher energy bills, more asthma and heart attacks, more toxins in drinking water, and more extreme weather.
At a time when millions of Americans are trying to rebuild after horrific wildfires and climate-fueled hurricanes, it’s nonsensical to try to deny that climate change harms our health and welfare.
Still, today’s announcement is only the start of the process – not the end. Before finalizing any of these actions, the law says EPA must propose its changes, justify them with science and the law, and listen to the public and respond to its concerns. NRDC’s scientists and lawyers will be there to fight back at every step of the way.
Jackie Wong, senior vice president for climate and energy, Natural Resources Defense Council
Finally, it should be noted that, while the US is attempting policy suicide by saddling it’s people with more harm and higher costs, the rest of the world is not doing the same. While the US is actively backing away from clean manufacturing, China and Europe aren’t.
Other countries are making the transition and ready to lead the world into the present, while American republicans kick and scream the country into obscurity. This is what a slim plurality of voters wanted, and it’s what you’re getting.
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BMW is preparing to launch its next-gen EVs, promising to deliver significantly more range, faster charging, and advanced new tech. With their debut just around the corner, BMW is giving us a closer look at the upcoming i3 and iX3 as it wraps up testing.
BMW’s new i3 and iX3 EVs are coming soon
The first Neue Klasse model, the iX3, will go into series production later this year, followed shortly after by the i3.
Although we will learn full specs later this year, BMW said its advanced new 800V platform is a “quantum leap forward” delivering 30% faster charging while boosting range by up to 30%. Even better, it will enable lower prices.
The platform will house BMW’s next-gen electric motors (up to four) and batteries. BMW confirmed the new NMC batteries feature its new Gen6 cylindrical cells, which are 20% more energy dense than the previous prismatic cells.
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For the first time, BMW’s “Heart of Joy” ECU combines the drivetrain and driving dynamics into one single unit to maximize efficiency.
The ECU was developed 100% in-house, featuring four “super brains” that provide “more than 20 times the computing power” compared to BMW’s current vehicles. In other words, BMW’s next-gen iX3 and i3 will be smarter, more powerful, and more efficient than ever.
BMW Neue Klasse electric SUV (iX3) and sedan (i3)(Source: BMW)
With testing nearly complete, we are getting a closer look at BMW’s upcoming Neue Klasse. BMW previewed the new i3 and iX3 testing under extreme conditions.
BMW’s electric SUV was shown ripping across South Africa’s desert during “final preparations” for hot-land testing as it gears up for its big debut later this year.
BMW iX3 electric SUV testing in South Africa (Source: BMW Group)
The gas-powered X3 is one of BMW’s top-selling vehicles and will still be sold alongside the upcoming EV version.
Meanwhile, the i3 sedan will follow the iX3 as the second electric vehicle based on BMW’s new platform. It was shown during cold weather testing in Sweden, skating across the icy tundra. The i3 will also make an official appearance later this year before launching in early 2026.
BMW i3 electric sedan testing in Sweden (source: BMW Group)
As you can see, BMW updated the new generation with a refined face and sportier overall feel. The signature kidney grille remains, but cameras and radars power new ADAS features.
We will find out more later, but to give you an idea, the 2024 i4 has an EPA-estimated range of up to 301 miles and fast charging (10% to 80%) in 31 minutes. A 30% improvement would suggest a range of around 390 miles and fast charging in less than 22 minutes.
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Tesla (TSLA) delivery consensus from Wall Street is still at 418,000 electric vehicles in Q1 2025, but they are dreaming.
Deliveries are currently tracking about 40,000 units lower.
Tesla delivered just short of 387,000 vehicles in Q1 2024 and 1.8 million vehicles in 2024—the automaker’s first year of deliveries being down since it achieved high-volume production.
Now, analysts are wondering if deliveries are going down for Tesla in 2025.
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Wall Street has been quite optimistic so far. The Wall Street delivery consensus for Tesla’s Q1 2025 started the year at 464,000 deliveries, which is slightly down from Q4 2024, but it is up a massive 20% year-over-year.
However, analysts have been gradually updating their estimates, and the consensus is now it sits at 418,000 deliveries, which would still be up 8% over Q1 2024.
That’s surprisingly high for anyone who has been watching Tesla closely this quarter since deliveries have been tracking below Q1 2024.
The data is more opaque in the US, but S&P data just released some data based on vehicle registration for January in the US, and Tesla is down 11% or about 4,000 units.
If you have been doing the math, it means that available data shows that Tesla is about 31,000 units behind where it was last quarter in its 3 main markets – with a few weeks left to report in China, a month in Europe, and two months in the US, to be fair.
31,000 units lower than 387,000 would mean 356,000 deliveries in Q1 2025, but there’s obviously still time for Tesla to either catch up or fall further behind.
Wall Street analysts are notoriously slower to update their numbers, but some have been catching up this week.
Guggenheim updated its delivery estimate from 405,000 deliveries to 358,000 units in Q1 2025 today.
JP Morgan also updated its delivery estimate from 444,000 to 355,000 in an update shared with clients today.
Both these firms have bearish outlooks on Tesla’s stock.
Morgan Stanley is one of the most bullish firms on Tesla, and they also came out with a new note today reiterating an overweight rating on Tesla’ stock. Analyst Adam Jonas says that he still sees Tesla’s volume growing 7%, which would put deliveries at 414,000 units this quarter.
As for prediction market Kalshi, which creates estimates based on people betting on Tesla’s delivery results, the estimate currently sits at 324,000 deliveries:
It’s fair to say that delivery predictions for Tesla’s Q1 2025 are currently quite all over the place.
Electrek’s Take
I am sure that the Wall Street consensus will come down by the end of the month because it is incredibly inflated right now.
It should at least be under Q1 2024.
On the other hand, I think the prediction market on Kalshi is probably overly pessimistic, but it’s also not impossible.
Tesla’s US sales this month are a bit of a mystery and they probably didn’t look good if Elon resorted to giving Trump another $100 million and having him do an informercial for the company at the White House.
We have more data coming from insurance registration in China in the coming weeks that should give us a pretty good idea.
Tesla certainly needs to ramp up deliveries of the new Model Y in China in the coming weeks. Otherwise, the Kalshi prediction could become accurate.
What do you think? What’s your prediction for Tesla in Q1 2025? For now, I think it is undoubtedly below 380,000 units and no less than 350,000 units.
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