The biggest influx of liquified natural gas (LNG) supply is coming online and it will transform the global market, bringing about wide and enduring effects, said RBC Capital Markets.
“A wave of new LNG supply —the biggest yet— is set to reshape the global market in the coming years, with broader implications than prior growth given increasing inter-linkages between regional gas markets following the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” analysts from the investment bank wrote in a note.
The supply injection is likely to thrust the market into an extended period of oversupply by the end of 2026, which will remain until 2030, with prices possibly moving below double-digits, analysts such as RBC’s Anan Dhanani have projected.
Futures for the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) hub, a European benchmark for natural gas transactions, were trading at $12.78 per mmbtu on Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Throughout the year, a growing chorus of analysts have warned that tepid demand growth coupled with looming waves of export capacity could lead to a massively oversupplied market. As a stream of planned infrastructure continues to flood the market, it’s unclear if demand will increase to absorb each wave.
Oversupply and depressed prices underscore the bearish sentiments in the LNG sector, said Rystad Energy senior analyst Masanori Odaka. Suppliers are now increasingly prioritizing LNG used for shipping utilization over arbitrage opportunities, i.e. profit margins.
Commodity arbitrage involves the simultaneous or sequential buying and selling of commodities across different markets to profit from the price difference.
Global LNG trade has doubled in the last decade, growing from around 240 metric ton in 2014 to more than 400 metric ton last year, largely caused by the disruption of Russian pipeline gas to Europe, according to RBC Capital. Some had perceived the geopolitical risk as an opportunity in the market.
The investment bank projected that global liquefaction capacity, the total amount of LNG that can be produced annually, will grow by around 50% by the end of the decade. The U.S. and Qatar will hold onto their position as the world’s biggest suppliers, with a combined market share of almost 50% in 2030, RBC added.
Many private companies and state-owned entities have plans to boost capacity, “not only to backstop European consumption but to also capture an expected growth in consumption rates, particularly in Asia,” RBC’s analysts said.
But demand from the Asia-Pacific region, the biggest importer of LNG, is only expected grow by an average of 5% annually. Around 70% of this growth will stem from China, India and South Korea.
Meanwhile, LNG prices have not seen major fluctuations despite escalating geopolitical tensions. “Surprisingly quiet” was how Meg O’Neill, managing director and CEO of Woodside Energy, described the market.
“For me, maybe that’s a sign that there’s sufficient supply sources around the world to help mitigate any temporary supply disruption coming out of the Middle East. And that’s probably true for both oil and LNG,” O’Neill told CNBC on the sidelines of the annual Singapore International Energy Week conference.
There are other looming challenges to the LNG sector that could affect global markets. The 2024-25 Northern Hemisphere winter is in sight and existing contracts of Russian gas deliveries to Europe through Ukraine are set to expire at the end of 2024, the International Energy Agency pointed out.
“This could mean an end to all piped gas deliveries to Europe from Russia through Ukraine,” the IEA wrote in a recent note. “This in turn would require higher LNG imports into Europe next year, resulting in a tighter global gas balance.”
Lee Zeldin, Chief Saboteur of the Environmental “Protection” Agency. Photo by SecretName101 on wikimedia
Lee Zeldin, titular head of the Environmental “Protection” Agency, officially announced several efforts to harm Americans’ health, increase their fuel costs by tens of billions of dollars per year, and to ensure that US manufacturing be less competitive into the future.
Zeldin called his actions today, mostly in the form of press releases declaring rollbacks of money-saving and pollution reducing measures, “the greatest day of deregulation in US history.”
However, that’s all bad news for the enemies of America, and so today, one of them started efforts to reverse all of those positive moves.
Unfortunately for America and the world, the current occupier of the White House is convicted felon Donald Trump, who finally received more votes than his opponent on his third attempt (despite committing treason in 2021, for which there is a clear legal remedy).
Today Zeldin put that claim into action… er, well, into more talk… by releasing a swath of unspecific press releases declaring his intent to increase harm and costs for Americans in all sorts of realms.
Most of these press releases focus on the same platitudes and Orwellian doublespeak that we have come to expect from a bought-and-paid oil stooge, claiming that the efforts will reduce costs when they in fact will raise costs, and that they will somehow clean up the environment while they dirty it.
A few specific efforts are pointed out, such as trying to reverse an electric vehicle mandate that doesn’t exist, showing that Zeldin is not just hostile to Americans, but also ignorant of the policy that he’s supposed to be administering. And, flying in the face of science, an effort to remove the EPA’s endangerment finding – a scientific finding which correctly acknowledges the danger of greenhouse gas emissions.
Zeldin also uses some questionable language, such as acknowledging that he’s putting a “dagger straight into the heart” of efforts to lower your costs and rid your life of the poisons that he has been paid to spread.
However, the true effects of these initiatives has not yet been seen, and is even hard to predict given the unspecific nature of the claims made and the long timelines for US rulemaking.
US rulemaking is a long and deliberate process that requires consensus and for rulemaking to have a scientific basis. Rules cannot be “arbitrary and capricious” – which makes it hard for a group of people who embody those terms more than almost anyone on Earth to push anything through.
Further compounding Zeldin’s attempted sabotage of American interests is a recent court opinion overturning the Chevron rule. The effect of this would be that administrative agencies like the EPA have less authority to make changes on their own without going to courts or Congress first, which means that any changes made by Zeldin can potentially be challenged even moreso by the actual environmental protectors of this country – nonprofits like the Natural Resources Defense Council, Sierra Club, Environmental Defense Fund and others.
These groups had significant success in challenging moves made by corrupt oil stooge Scott Pruitt and ignorant coal lobbyist Andrew Wheeler to sabotage American health during Mr. Trump’s first occupation of the White House. The NRDC, for example, won over 90% of the cases they brought during that time frame.
And the groups are all lining up to oppose these harmful actions today.
“The Trump administration’s plans, as announced by executive order, would gut the bedrock national and state clean air standards that have been reducing air pollution and protecting communities across the country. They would also undermine investments, jobs and affordability for clean vehicles. The public has a right to know what the Trump administration is doing and why they are pursuing this harmful agenda. We are going to court to ensure they do.”
-Alice Henderson, Director and Lead Counsel for Transportation and Clean Air, Environmental Defense Fund
EPA Administrator Lee Zeldin today announced plans for the greatest increase in pollution in decades. The result will be more toxic chemicals, more cancers, more asthma attacks, and more dangers for pregnant women and their children. Rather than helping our economy, it will create chaos.
-Amanda Leland, Executive Director, Environmental Defense Fund
Donald Trump’s actions will cause thousands of Americans to die each year. It will send thousands of children to the hospital and force even more to miss school. It will pollute the air and water in communities across the country. And it will cause our energy bills to go up even more than they already are because of his disastrous policies. But as they put all of us at risk, Trump and his administration are celebrating because it will help corporate polluters pad their profit margin.
The American people should be furious. The EPA exists to protect us from serious pollution that endangers our lives and wellbeing, but Trump and Lee Zeldin are attempting to turn it into corporate polluters’ best friend.
Make no mistake about it: we will fight these outrageous rollbacks tooth and nail, and we will use all resources at our disposal to continue protecting the health and safety of all Americans.
-Ben Jealous, Executive Director, Sierra Club
Breaking faith with the American people and breaking 50 years of laws of the land, the Environmental Protection Agency today abandoned protecting human health and the environment. Repealing or weakening these important safeguards on pollution from cars, power plants, and oil producers would mean higher energy bills, more asthma and heart attacks, more toxins in drinking water, and more extreme weather.
At a time when millions of Americans are trying to rebuild after horrific wildfires and climate-fueled hurricanes, it’s nonsensical to try to deny that climate change harms our health and welfare.
Still, today’s announcement is only the start of the process – not the end. Before finalizing any of these actions, the law says EPA must propose its changes, justify them with science and the law, and listen to the public and respond to its concerns. NRDC’s scientists and lawyers will be there to fight back at every step of the way.
Jackie Wong, senior vice president for climate and energy, Natural Resources Defense Council
Finally, it should be noted that, while the US is attempting policy suicide by saddling it’s people with more harm and higher costs, the rest of the world is not doing the same. While the US is actively backing away from clean manufacturing, China and Europe aren’t.
Other countries are making the transition and ready to lead the world into the present, while American republicans kick and scream the country into obscurity. This is what a slim plurality of voters wanted, and it’s what you’re getting.
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BMW is preparing to launch its next-gen EVs, promising to deliver significantly more range, faster charging, and advanced new tech. With their debut just around the corner, BMW is giving us a closer look at the upcoming i3 and iX3 as it wraps up testing.
BMW’s new i3 and iX3 EVs are coming soon
The first Neue Klasse model, the iX3, will go into series production later this year, followed shortly after by the i3.
Although we will learn full specs later this year, BMW said its advanced new 800V platform is a “quantum leap forward” delivering 30% faster charging while boosting range by up to 30%. Even better, it will enable lower prices.
The platform will house BMW’s next-gen electric motors (up to four) and batteries. BMW confirmed the new NMC batteries feature its new Gen6 cylindrical cells, which are 20% more energy dense than the previous prismatic cells.
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For the first time, BMW’s “Heart of Joy” ECU combines the drivetrain and driving dynamics into one single unit to maximize efficiency.
The ECU was developed 100% in-house, featuring four “super brains” that provide “more than 20 times the computing power” compared to BMW’s current vehicles. In other words, BMW’s next-gen iX3 and i3 will be smarter, more powerful, and more efficient than ever.
BMW Neue Klasse electric SUV (iX3) and sedan (i3)(Source: BMW)
With testing nearly complete, we are getting a closer look at BMW’s upcoming Neue Klasse. BMW previewed the new i3 and iX3 testing under extreme conditions.
BMW’s electric SUV was shown ripping across South Africa’s desert during “final preparations” for hot-land testing as it gears up for its big debut later this year.
BMW iX3 electric SUV testing in South Africa (Source: BMW Group)
The gas-powered X3 is one of BMW’s top-selling vehicles and will still be sold alongside the upcoming EV version.
Meanwhile, the i3 sedan will follow the iX3 as the second electric vehicle based on BMW’s new platform. It was shown during cold weather testing in Sweden, skating across the icy tundra. The i3 will also make an official appearance later this year before launching in early 2026.
BMW i3 electric sedan testing in Sweden (source: BMW Group)
As you can see, BMW updated the new generation with a refined face and sportier overall feel. The signature kidney grille remains, but cameras and radars power new ADAS features.
We will find out more later, but to give you an idea, the 2024 i4 has an EPA-estimated range of up to 301 miles and fast charging (10% to 80%) in 31 minutes. A 30% improvement would suggest a range of around 390 miles and fast charging in less than 22 minutes.
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Tesla (TSLA) delivery consensus from Wall Street is still at 418,000 electric vehicles in Q1 2025, but they are dreaming.
Deliveries are currently tracking about 40,000 units lower.
Tesla delivered just short of 387,000 vehicles in Q1 2024 and 1.8 million vehicles in 2024—the automaker’s first year of deliveries being down since it achieved high-volume production.
Now, analysts are wondering if deliveries are going down for Tesla in 2025.
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Wall Street has been quite optimistic so far. The Wall Street delivery consensus for Tesla’s Q1 2025 started the year at 464,000 deliveries, which is slightly down from Q4 2024, but it is up a massive 20% year-over-year.
However, analysts have been gradually updating their estimates, and the consensus is now it sits at 418,000 deliveries, which would still be up 8% over Q1 2024.
That’s surprisingly high for anyone who has been watching Tesla closely this quarter since deliveries have been tracking below Q1 2024.
The data is more opaque in the US, but S&P data just released some data based on vehicle registration for January in the US, and Tesla is down 11% or about 4,000 units.
If you have been doing the math, it means that available data shows that Tesla is about 31,000 units behind where it was last quarter in its 3 main markets – with a few weeks left to report in China, a month in Europe, and two months in the US, to be fair.
31,000 units lower than 387,000 would mean 356,000 deliveries in Q1 2025, but there’s obviously still time for Tesla to either catch up or fall further behind.
Wall Street analysts are notoriously slower to update their numbers, but some have been catching up this week.
Guggenheim updated its delivery estimate from 405,000 deliveries to 358,000 units in Q1 2025 today.
JP Morgan also updated its delivery estimate from 444,000 to 355,000 in an update shared with clients today.
Both these firms have bearish outlooks on Tesla’s stock.
Morgan Stanley is one of the most bullish firms on Tesla, and they also came out with a new note today reiterating an overweight rating on Tesla’ stock. Analyst Adam Jonas says that he still sees Tesla’s volume growing 7%, which would put deliveries at 414,000 units this quarter.
As for prediction market Kalshi, which creates estimates based on people betting on Tesla’s delivery results, the estimate currently sits at 324,000 deliveries:
It’s fair to say that delivery predictions for Tesla’s Q1 2025 are currently quite all over the place.
Electrek’s Take
I am sure that the Wall Street consensus will come down by the end of the month because it is incredibly inflated right now.
It should at least be under Q1 2024.
On the other hand, I think the prediction market on Kalshi is probably overly pessimistic, but it’s also not impossible.
Tesla’s US sales this month are a bit of a mystery and they probably didn’t look good if Elon resorted to giving Trump another $100 million and having him do an informercial for the company at the White House.
We have more data coming from insurance registration in China in the coming weeks that should give us a pretty good idea.
Tesla certainly needs to ramp up deliveries of the new Model Y in China in the coming weeks. Otherwise, the Kalshi prediction could become accurate.
What do you think? What’s your prediction for Tesla in Q1 2025? For now, I think it is undoubtedly below 380,000 units and no less than 350,000 units.
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