The biggest influx of liquified natural gas (LNG) supply is coming online and it will transform the global market, bringing about wide and enduring effects, said RBC Capital Markets.
“A wave of new LNG supply —the biggest yet— is set to reshape the global market in the coming years, with broader implications than prior growth given increasing inter-linkages between regional gas markets following the Russia-Ukraine conflict,” analysts from the investment bank wrote in a note.
The supply injection is likely to thrust the market into an extended period of oversupply by the end of 2026, which will remain until 2030, with prices possibly moving below double-digits, analysts such as RBC’s Anan Dhanani have projected.
Futures for the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF) hub, a European benchmark for natural gas transactions, were trading at $12.78 per mmbtu on Wednesday on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Throughout the year, a growing chorus of analysts have warned that tepid demand growth coupled with looming waves of export capacity could lead to a massively oversupplied market. As a stream of planned infrastructure continues to flood the market, it’s unclear if demand will increase to absorb each wave.
Oversupply and depressed prices underscore the bearish sentiments in the LNG sector, said Rystad Energy senior analyst Masanori Odaka. Suppliers are now increasingly prioritizing LNG used for shipping utilization over arbitrage opportunities, i.e. profit margins.
Commodity arbitrage involves the simultaneous or sequential buying and selling of commodities across different markets to profit from the price difference.
Global LNG trade has doubled in the last decade, growing from around 240 metric ton in 2014 to more than 400 metric ton last year, largely caused by the disruption of Russian pipeline gas to Europe, according to RBC Capital. Some had perceived the geopolitical risk as an opportunity in the market.
The investment bank projected that global liquefaction capacity, the total amount of LNG that can be produced annually, will grow by around 50% by the end of the decade. The U.S. and Qatar will hold onto their position as the world’s biggest suppliers, with a combined market share of almost 50% in 2030, RBC added.
Many private companies and state-owned entities have plans to boost capacity, “not only to backstop European consumption but to also capture an expected growth in consumption rates, particularly in Asia,” RBC’s analysts said.
But demand from the Asia-Pacific region, the biggest importer of LNG, is only expected grow by an average of 5% annually. Around 70% of this growth will stem from China, India and South Korea.
Meanwhile, LNG prices have not seen major fluctuations despite escalating geopolitical tensions. “Surprisingly quiet” was how Meg O’Neill, managing director and CEO of Woodside Energy, described the market.
“For me, maybe that’s a sign that there’s sufficient supply sources around the world to help mitigate any temporary supply disruption coming out of the Middle East. And that’s probably true for both oil and LNG,” O’Neill told CNBC on the sidelines of the annual Singapore International Energy Week conference.
There are other looming challenges to the LNG sector that could affect global markets. The 2024-25 Northern Hemisphere winter is in sight and existing contracts of Russian gas deliveries to Europe through Ukraine are set to expire at the end of 2024, the International Energy Agency pointed out.
“This could mean an end to all piped gas deliveries to Europe from Russia through Ukraine,” the IEA wrote in a recent note. “This in turn would require higher LNG imports into Europe next year, resulting in a tighter global gas balance.”
If you haven’t noticed, Genesis is quickly making a name for itself in the US. The luxury automaker now has 60 sales outlets as it expands into new US states. With new EVs launching, Genesis is eyeing a bigger share of the US luxury market.
Hyundai Motor Group’s Genesis brand is quietly emerging as a powerhouse in the US luxury market. Genesis marked its entry into the luxury segment in 2008 as a Hyundai-branded model.
In 2015, Hyundai announced Genesis would become an independent luxury brand. Since launching its first vehicle in the US, the luxury brand’s sales have surged from 7,000 in 2016 to over 69,000 last year. It even outsold Nissan’s Infiniti.
According to Genesis, this is just the start. The Korean luxury brand wants an even bigger slice of the market as it eyes rivals like Porsche.
A big reason behind the brand’s confidence is its new lineup of stylishly electric models. Genesis sells three EVs in the US: The GV60, Electrified G80, and Electrified GV70.
After introducing the Electrified GV70 just last year, the electric SUV is already Genesis’ top-selling EV in the US. According to Kelley Blue Book, Genesis sold 2,343 electric GV70 models in the US through September.
Genesis eyes a bigger share of the US luxury market
Altogether, the luxury brand’s EV sales reached over 4,600 through the first nine months of 2024, topping Porsche (4,291) and Volvo (3,644).
Genesis made a statement at the LA Auto Show, unveiling the updated 2026 Electrified GV70. The luxury electric SUV now includes more range and an NACS port so drivers can charge at Tesla Superchargers. It will go on sale in the first half of 2025.
Meanwhile, Genesis showcased its new GV60 Magma Concept at the event, its first dedicated high-performance EV. The brand sees its Magma performance brand rivaling that of Geman luxury brands like Mercedes AMG, BMW M, and Audi RS.
The Genesis GV60 Magma EV will launch next year, spearheading the brand’s “expansion into the realm of high-performance vehicles.”
Genesis enhanced the battery and motor while fine-tuning the chassis, thermodynamics, and profile for more power and efficiency.
It also features an aggressive new design, sitting much lower and wider than the current GV60 model. Genesis added a Magma-exclusive sound system to give it a sports car-like feel in the cockpit.
In April, we got our first look at the G80 EV Magma concept, which could be a potential challenger to Tesla’s Model S Plaid and the Porsche Taycan GT Turbo.
The luxury brand is expected to launch its flagship electric three-row SUV next year, the GV90. Genesis previewed the ultra-luxury EV in March after unveiling the Neolun concept.
Genesis now has 60 sales bases in the US, with new stores in Washington, Minnesota, New York, and Florida. It’s also building 30 in Canada as it expands its presence in the North American luxury market.
The luxury brand is opening a new dedicated design center in California. The “Genesis Design California” will open in the first half of 2025 as it builds out its US network.
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A rumor spreading like wildfire on social media claims BYD will be taking over NIO (NYSE: NIO) as the EV giant gobbles up market share in China. The rumor was posted by a suspected BYD employee, but NIO is denying the claim.
BYD acquiring NIO would be a massive move as China’s leading EV maker continues to dominate the market. But that’s not going to happen.
According to CnEVPost, NIO’s assistant vice president for branding and communications, Ma Lin, denied the rumors that BYD is taking over the company on Friday.
Ma posted a screenshot on social media asking BYD’s general manager of branding and PR, Li Yunfei if the person who posted the fake rumor was an employee.
Earlier today, the suspected employee claimed BYD and NIO were setting up a joint venture. In a Weibo post, the suspect said BYD would have majority control of the partnership with a 51% share while NIO would get the remaining 49% ownership.
Ma told Li that if it was, in fact, a BYD employee, he needed to issue an official clarification and apologize. If not, they can get the police involved together. Li also denied the rumors, saying the claim was seriously untrue.
NIO denies rumors that BYD is taking over the company
This is not the first time rumors surfaced that BYD will be taking over NIO, but because it is a suspected employee, the post has garnered more attention.
BYD is on a major hiring spree as it ramps up production to meet the higher demand. The EV giant now has over 900,000 employees, making it by far the largest A-share listed company in China.
After selling over 500,000 vehicles for the first time in a single month in October, BYD’s surge is heating up as the EV giant expands overseas for growth.
October was BYD’s fifth consecutive record sales month as it closes in on auto leaders like Ford in global deliveries.
NIO is also gaining momentum, with sales topping the 20,000 mark for the sixth straight month in October. With output of its new lower-priced Onvo L60 electric SUV ramping up, NIO expects to continue seeing higher demand.
Ma said on Friday that NIO’s “recent situation is quite good.” The company’s head of PR added, “Cash flow turned positive in the third quarter, gross profit improved in October, earning an extra RMB 100 million, and Onvo (deliveries) will exceed 10,000 in December.”
NIO is launching its third brand, Firefly, with deliveries kicking off in the first half of 2025. The company expects sales to double next year as it works to become profitable by 2026.
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Hyundai Motors is recalling 145,235 EVs and other “electrified” vehicles in the US, citing concerns about a loss of driving power, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) said on Friday.
The NHTSA announced this morning that the recall affects selected IONIQ 5 and IONIQ 6 EVs, as well as certain luxury Genesis models, including the GV60, GV70, and G80 electrified variants, from the 2022-2025 model years, Reuters reported.
It looks like the issue stems from “the integrated charging control units in these vehicles, which may become damaged and fail to charge the 12-volt battery. This malfunction could lead to a complete loss of drive power, posing safety risks for drivers,” the NHTSA stated.
If you’re an owner of one of these Hyundai models dating 2022-2025, stay tuned. Hyundai has not yet provided a timeline as to when affected vehicles will be repaired.
To make that happen, the company’s dealers will inspect and replace the charging unit and its fuse if necessary, NHTSA said. Free of charge, of course.
Importantly, no crashes, injuries, fatalities, or fires due to this issue have been reported in the US, Hyundai reported.
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