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The chance of limiting global warming to 1.5C is “virtually zero” on current trends, according to the UN’s environment body.

This year’s Emissions Gap Report finds that emissions of greenhouse gasses in 2023 were the highest on record.

More concerning, the rate of growth since 2022 was nearly twice as fast as in the decade preceding the COVID pandemic.

This comes despite decades of climate talks and a boom in wind and solar power.

The analysis finds that the current trajectory in carbon emissions puts the world on course for a potentially catastrophic 3.1C of warming this century – compared to pre-industrial times.

While emissions in many wealthy countries, including the UK, the US and the EU have peaked, they are not falling anywhere near fast enough to make up for rapidly growing emissions in places like China, India, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia and Vietnam.

Image:
A chart showing the likely scenarios for global temperatures in the event that CO2 emissions can be cut

‘Crunch time is here’

“Climate crunch time is here,” said Inger Andersen, executive director of the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP).

“We need global mobilisation on a scale and pace never seen before – starting right now, before the next round of climate pledges.”

The report urges nations meeting at the UN climate summit next month in Baku, Azerbaijan, to come forward with emissions-cutting commitments that don’t continue to ignore the agreement they all signed in Paris in 2015.

The Baku Olympic Stadium will host the COP29 conference. 
Pic: Reuters
Image:
The Baku Olympic Stadium will host the COP29 conference.
Pic: Reuters

The Paris Agreement, signed by 196 countries, pledged to limit global warming to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels and try and prevent it from rising beyond 1.5C.

The UNEP analysis of current carbon-cutting commitments finds only one country, Madagascar, has submitted a more ambitious one since last year.

And only a handful are ambitious enough to actually slow global warming.

If all current pledges were implemented in full the world would still warm by between 2.6C-2.8C this century.

Given many countries, including the UK, are yet to implement policies to fully meet their targets, the current trajectory takes the world closer to a potentially catastrophic 3.1C of warming.

“Central warming projections indicate that the chance of limiting global warming to 1.5C would be virtually zero,” the report concludes.

Image:
A chart showing how emissions have increased over time

‘This is a battle we cannot afford to lose’

It’s not all bad news however.

An analysis of the cost of measures to reduce emissions finds there is technical potential for cuts of 31 gigatons of greenhouse gasses by 2030 – around half of the total emitted globally in 2023 – and 41 gigatons by 2035.

This “massive effort” to deploy zero-carbon electricity generation like wind and solar and reverse deforestation trends would bridge the gap needed to put the world back on track to keep warming below 1.5C.

However, years of inaction have made this challenge harder, the report finds.

Emission cuts must be 7.5% steeper every year until 2035 to meet 1.5C and 4% annually to keep to 2C.

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Maybe we won’t get all the way to 1.5C but 1.6C is a lot better than 1.7C,” says Dr Anne Olhoff, the report’s lead author.

“Basically, every fraction of a degree matters and this is a battle we cannot afford to lose.”

Countries have until 2025 to submit new carbon-cutting pledges under the Paris Agreement.

But to deliver the cuts required, the main challenge – and one that will be central to talks at the upcoming climate summit in Baku – is technical and financial assistance from rich countries to poorer ones that don’t bear historical responsibility for global warming.

Progress, says Dr Olhoff, “hinges on immediate and relentless action.”

“Most of all, of course, it depends on political leadership.”

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Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh being forced to fight for same military accused of genocide against their people

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Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh being forced to fight for same military accused of genocide against their people

Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh is a sprawling mass of humanity. 

It’s a sea of makeshift bamboo shelters, home to more than one million Rohingya refugees – a mainly Muslim minority from Rakhine state in Myanmar.

Some 700,000 fled their homeland back in 2017 – after the Myanmar military massacred thousands.

The army was accused of genocide by the United Nations.

The Rohingya refugees didn’t escape danger though.

Right now, violence is at its worst levels in the camps since 2017 and Rohingya people face a particularly cruel new threat – they’re being forced back to fight for the same Myanmar military accused of trying to wipe out their people.

A child at the refugee camp in Cox's Bazar
Image:
A child at the refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar

Militant groups are recruiting Rohingya men in the camps, some at gunpoint, and taking them back to Myanmar to fight for a force that’s losing ground.

More on Rohingyas

Jaker is just 19.

We’ve changed his name to protect his identity.

He says he was abducted at gunpoint last year by a group of nine men in Cox’s.

They tied his hands with rope he says and took him to the border where he was taken by boat with three other men to fight for the Myanmar military.

“It was heartbreaking,” he told me. “They targeted poor children. The children of wealthy families only avoided it by paying money.”

And he says the impact has been deadly.

“Many of our Rohingya boys, who were taken by force from the camps, were killed in battle.”

Jaker speaks to Sky's Cordelia Lynch
Image:
Jaker speaks to Sky’s Cordelia Lynch

An aerial view of the refugee camp in Cox's Bazar
Image:
An aerial view of the refugee camp in Cox’s Bazar

The situation in Cox’s is desperate.

People are disillusioned by poverty, violence and the plight of their own people and the civil war they ran from is getting worse.

In Rakhine, just across the border, there’s been a big shift in dynamics.

The Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic armed group has all but taken control of the state from the ruling military junta.

Both the military and the AA are accused of committing atrocities against Rohingya Muslims.

And whilst some Rohingya claim they’re being forced into the fray – dragged back to Myanmar from Bangladesh, others are willing to go.

Read more from Sky News:
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Sri Lanka rescues more than 100 people believed to be Rohingya refugees

Teknaf in Cox's Bazar - where refugees arrive from Myanmar after crossing the Naf River
Image:
Teknaf in Cox’s Bazar – where refugees arrive from Myanmar after crossing the Naf River

Some are so aggrieved with the AA, they’re willing to support their former persecutors.

Abu Zar is one of those willing to take up arms.

But not for the military or AA, he says.

Everyone praying in the mosque with him is prepared to go back to protect their own cause he says – not anyone else’s.

“We want to fight for our rights because we have been demanding justice for a long time. But the situation has become unbearable,” he tells me.

Abu Zar has said he is willing to take up arms for his own cause
Image:
Abu Zar has said he is willing to take up arms for his own cause

It’s estimated between 3,000 and 5,000 Rohingya have joined armed groups from this camp.

But the fight they are joining has become increasingly bloody.

In a cramped shelter, we meet Safura.

Safura came under fire as she fled Myanmar
Image:
Safura came under fire as she fled Myanmar

Safura's son Aman had his foot blown off
Image:
Safura’s son Aman had his foot blown off

Five days ago she managed to get out of Myanmar but she had to be carried part of the way.

Her legs are riddled with bullet wounds and the pain is severe.

Her son, Aman, who lies on the floor next to her, has had his foot blown off.

They were injured she said, during an attack on her family home in the middle of the night.

“They entered our house and shot all my family members. My husband and mother-in-law were killed on the spot.”

The military denies forcing Rohingya to the battlefield. But the camps tell a different story- one of surging violence and vulnerability.

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Trump tells Gazans ‘you are dead’ if Israeli hostages are not immediately handed over

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Trump tells Gazans 'you are dead' if Israeli hostages are not immediately handed over

US President Donald Trump has told Gazans to hand over Israeli hostages or “you are dead”.

The threat, made over social media, came hours after the White House confirmed that US officials had broken with tradition to hold direct talks with Hamas.

The US has previously avoided direct contact with the group owing to Washington’s longstanding position not to negotiate with terrorists – with Hamas having been designated as a terrorist group in the US since 1997.

In a press conference on Wednesday, White House press secretary Ms Keavitt said there had been “ongoing talks and discussions” between the US officials and Hamas.

President Donald Trump addresses a joint session of Congress. Pic: AP
Image:
File pic: AP

But she would not be drawn on the substance of the talks – taking place in Doha, Qatar – between US officials and Hamas, but said Israel had been consulted.

Ms Leavitt continued: “Dialogue and talking to people around the world to do what’s in the best interest of the American people, is something that the president has proven is what he believes is a good faith, effort to do what’s right for the American people.”

There are “American lives at stake,” she added.

Adam Boehler, Mr Trump’s pick to be special envoy for hostage affairs, participated in the direct talks with Hamas.

A spokesperson for Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said Israel had “expressed to the United States its position regarding direct talks with Hamas”.

Hours later, Mr Trump warned Hamas to hand over Israeli hostages or “it’s over for you” – adding: “This is your last warning”.

Hamas militants on the day of a hostage handover in Gaza. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Hamas militants on the day of a hostage handover in Gaza in February. Pic: Reuters

On his Truth Social platform, Mr Trump wrote: “Release all of the hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered or it is over for you.

“Only sick and twisted people keep bodies and you are sick and twisted. I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job, not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say.”

Mr Trump met with freed Israeli hostages on Wednesday, something he referenced in his social media post, before adding: “This is your last warning. For the leadership of Hamas, now is the time to leave Gaza, while you still have a chance.

“Also, to the people of Gaza, a beautiful future awaits, but not if you hold hostages. If you do, you are dead. Make a smart decision. Release the hostages now, or there will be hell to pay later.”

Israel estimates about 24 living hostages, including American citizen Edan Alexander, and the bodies of at least 35 others, are still believed to be in Gaza.

Donald Trump welcomes Benjamin Netanyahu to the White House. Pic: Reuters
Image:
Donald Trump with Benjamin Netanyahu in February. Pic: Reuters

The US has a long-held policy of not negotiating with terrorists – which it is breaking with these talks as Hamas has been designated a foreign terrorist organisation by the US government’s National Counterterrorism Center since 1997.

The discussions come as a fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire continues to hold, but its future is uncertain.

Palestinians walk among the rubble of buildings, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, February 27, 2025. REUTERS/Ramadan Abed
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Palestinians amid the rubble in the southern Gaza strip. Pic: Reuters

Mr Trump has signalled he has no intention of pushing the Israeli prime minister away from a return to combat if Hamas does not agree to terms of a new ceasefire proposal – which, Israel says, has been drafted by US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.

The new plan would require Hamas to release half its remaining hostages – the group’s main bargaining chip – in exchange for a ceasefire extension and a promise to negotiate a lasting truce.

Read more:
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Freed Israeli hostage details captivity

Israel has made no mention of releasing more Palestinian prisoners, a key component of the first phase.

Fighting in Gaza has been halted since 19 January.

Hamas has exchanged 33 Israeli and five Thai hostages for some 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.

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Trump admits tariffs ‘disturbance’ as China says it is ‘ready for any type of war’ with US

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Trump admits tariffs 'disturbance' as China says it is 'ready for any type of war' with US

Donald Trump has admitted his tariffs on major trading partners will cause “a little disturbance” – as China said it was “ready” for “any type of war” with the US.

The US president made his comments in an address to Congress, hours after the levies on imports came into effect.

Producers in Mexico and Canada have been hit with a 25% tax on items they export to the US, while a 20% tariff has been applied to Chinese imports.

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Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
Pic:Reuters/AP
Image:
Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The US president has admitted his tariffs will cause ‘a little disturbance’ – as China responds. Pic: Reuters/AP

Stock markets, which Mr Trump is said to pay close attention to, slid on the tariffs news.

Exporters in the affected countries as well as businesses in the US and economists have raised concerns about the potential price-raising impact of the tariffs.

Making imports more expensive will likely make goods more expensive and could push prices up across the board.

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Trump’s Congress speech unwrapped

Concern over threat to interest rates

A cycle of high inflation could lead to interest rates being higher for longer in the US, the world’s largest economy, which could dampen economic activity.

A slowed US economy would have global consequences but even without a hit to the States, there are fears of a global trade war – in which countries add their own trade barriers in the form of tariffs.

The Chinese embassy in the US posted on X: “If war is what the US wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end.”

China imposes retaliatory tariffs

The president, however, said he was “just getting started” after 43 days into his second term.

China and Canada have retaliated with their own tariffs against the US.

From next week China will add its own 15% levy on a range of agricultural products such as chicken, wheat, corn and cotton.

An extra 10% will be added to soya beans, pork, beef, fruit, vegetables and dairy products imports.

The country has also raised additional complaints against the US with the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

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‘Dumb’: Canadian PM criticises Trump over tariffs
Political division in US has never looked like this

Speaking to Sky News presenter Yalda Hakim the US former deputy national security advisor Matt Pottinger said Chinese president Xi Jinping was turning the Chinese economy “into a wartime economy”

“He’s preparing his economy for war so that it can withstand the shocks of war,” he said on The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim podcast

“That means he’s willing to undergo massive inefficiencies in the economy. He’s willing to stockpile food that otherwise would flow easily and more cheaply in from foreign vessels.”

“He’s stockpiling copper and all kinds of inputs into the economy. He is making sure that the private sector is wholly aligned with his broad goals, which are about increasing the Chinese Communist Party’s control over the economy and creating a bigger, better defence industrial base,” Mr Pottinger said.

“He’s preparing for war.”

👉Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim on your podcast app👈

Compromise ‘as early as Wednesday’?

Canada’s prime minister Justin Trudeau said his country was launching its own WTO challenge and described the US tariffs as a “dumb thing to do”.

He also warned the move by the Trump administration would impact American workplaces and add to inflation in the US.

Addressing the American public, he said: “We don’t want this… but your government has chosen to do this to you.”

Canada has announced the imposition of 25% tariffs on US imports worth C$30bn (£16.3bn).

But US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick struck a different note on tariffs and on Monday said the president will “probably” announce a compromise with Canada and Mexico as early as Wednesday.

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