Chancellor Rachel Reeves to change public finance rules to borrow more for investment
Rachel Reeves will rewrite the government’s fiscal rules in next week’s budget to allow her to increase borrowing for public investment by around £50bn.
Speaking to Sky News in Washington DC, the chancellor said that the self-imposed rule under which borrowing must be falling by the fifth year of economic forecasts will be redefined from the current measure of public sector net debt.
Ms Reeves would not be drawn on what measure will replace the current rule but there is speculation that she will favour using public sector debt net of financial liabilities (PSNFL).
Under this definition, investments such as the government’s student loans book are defined as assets rather than liabilities, which on current measures would allow a further £53bn of borrowing.
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The chancellor said the second fiscal rule, under which day-to-day spending must be funded from government revenue rather than borrowing, would be unchanged.
Growing consensus
Ms Reeves cited support for increasing the debt threshold from leading British economists, as well as the International Monetary Fund, which this week said public investment should be protected and was “badly needed” in the UK.
She insisted the change was necessary to end years of declining public investment and deliver on Labour‘s promise to deliver growth.
“Under the plans that I have inherited from the previous Conservative government, public sector net investment as a share of our economy was due to decline steeply during the course of this parliament,” she said.
“I don’t want that path for Britain when there are so many opportunities in industries from life sciences to carbon capture, storage and clean energy to AI and technology, as well as the need to repair our crumbling schools and hospitals.”
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Ms Reeves denied that she was effectively fiddling the rules to get around her manifesto pledge not to increase income tax, VAT or national insurance.
“The rule that really bites is the first rule, the stability rule, to get day-to-day spending funded by tax receipts. That’s something that the previous government weren’t even trying to achieve and we will show in the budget next week how we will deliver on that promise.
“The second role is about being responsible. By seizing the opportunities, but doing it in a way where we are making sure we’re getting value for money for every pound of taxpayer’s money spent.
“Of course we’ll put guardrails in place to ensure that every pound of taxpayers’ money that is spent is spent wisely, and will involve the National Audit Office and the Office of Budget Responsibility in that.”
The first test of the change in the debt rule will be the reaction of bond markets, which rose slightly on Thursday following reports of Ms Reeves’ plans.
Taken together, the redefined fiscal rules set the terms of a budget that is likely to see tax rises and public spending cuts balanced by more freedom to borrow.
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Tax rises not ruled out
Ms Reeves did not rule out a raft of tax rises, including adding national insurance to employers’ pension contributions, from which public sector employers may be exempt.
“I was clear in the statement I made to the House of Commons in July that there will be difficult decisions in this budget around spending, welfare and taxation. But the precise details I will set out to the House of Commons next week.
“I will be a responsible chancellor. I will be honest and transparent about the challenges we face, but also how we’ll fix them to wipe the slate clean after the mismanagement we’ve seen in the last few years under the Conservatives.”
Gareth Davies, shadow exchequer secretary, said: “Before the election Rachel Reeves promised that she would not ‘fiddle’ the fiscal rules, and now it seems she is going to do exactly that. Remarkably she is announcing this not to Parliament, but to the IMF in advance of the budget.
“This is already having real world effects, with borrowing costs rising. This uncertainty over additional borrowing risks interest rates staying higher and for longer. It’s families up and down the country who would pay the price.”
The business secretary will next week hold talks with dozens of private sector bosses as the government contends with a significant corporate backlash to Labour’s first fiscal event in nearly 15 years.
Sky News has learnt that executives have been invited to join a conference call on Monday with Jonathan Reynolds, in what will represent his first meaningful engagement with employers since Wednesday’s budget statement.
Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, unsettled financial markets with plans for billions of pounds in extra borrowing, and unnerved business leaders by saying she would raise an additional £25bn annually by hiking their national insurance contributions.
An increase in employer NICs had been trailed by officials in advance of the budget, but the lowering of the threshold to just £5,000 has triggered forecasts of a wave of redundancies and even insolvencies across labour-intensive industries.
Sectors such as retail and hospitality, which employ substantial numbers of part-time workers, have been particularly vocal in their condemnation of the move.
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On Friday, the Financial Times published comments made by the chief executive of Barclays in which he defended Ms Reeves.
“I think they’ve done an admirable job of balancing spending, borrowing and taxation in order to drive the fundamental objective of growth,” CS Venkatakrishnan said.
His was a rare voice among prominent business figures in backing the chancellor, however, with many questioning whether the government had a meaningful plan to grow the economy.
Mr Reynolds held a similar call with business leaders within days of general election victory, and over 100 bosses are understood to have been invited to Monday’s discussion.
A spokesman for the Department for Business and Trade declined to comment ahead of Monday’s call.
First things first: don’t panic.
What you need to know is this. The budget has not gone down well in financial markets. Indeed, it’s gone down about as badly as any budget in recent years, save for Liz Truss’s mini-budget.
The pound is weaker. Government bond yields (essentially, the interest rate the exchequer pays on its debt) have gone up.
That’s precisely the opposite market reaction to the one chancellors like to see after they commend their fiscal statements to the house.
In hindsight, perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised.
After all, the new government just committed itself to considerably more borrowing than its predecessors – about £140bn more borrowing in the coming years. And that money has to be borrowed from someone – namely, financial markets.
But those financial markets are now reassessing how keen they are to lend to the UK.
The upshot is that the pound has fallen quite sharply (the biggest two-day fall in trade-weighted sterling in 18 months) and gilt yields – the interest rate paid by the government – have risen quite sharply.
This was all beginning to crystallise shortly after the budget speech, with yields beginning to rise and the pound beginning to weaken, the moment investors and economists got their hands on the budget documentation.
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Chancellor challenged over gilt yield spike
But the falls in the pound and the rises in the bond yields accelerated today.
This is not, to be absolutely clear, the kind of response any chancellor wants to see after a budget – let alone their first budget in office.
Indeed, I can’t remember another budget which saw as hostile a market response as this one in many years – save for one.
That exception is, of course, the Liz Truss/Kwasi Kwarteng mini-budget of 2022. And here is where you’ll find the silver lining for Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves.
The rises in gilt yields and falls in sterling in recent hours and days are still far shy of what took place in the run up and aftermath of the mini-budget. This does not yet feel like a crisis moment for UK markets.
But nor is it anything like good news for the government. In fact, it’s pretty awful. Because higher borrowing rates for UK debt mean it (well, us) will end up paying considerably more to service our debt in the coming years.
Rachel Reeves leaving 11 Downing Street before the budget. Pic: PA
And that debt is about to balloon dramatically because of the plans laid down by the chancellor this week.
And this is where things get particularly sticky for Ms Reeves.
In that budget documentation, the Office for Budget Responsibility said the chancellor could afford to see those gilt yields rise by about 1.3 percentage points, but then when they exceeded this level, the so-called “headroom” she had against her fiscal rules would evaporate.
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In other words, she’d break those rules – which, recall, are considerably less strict than the ones she inherited from Jeremy Hunt.
Which raises the question: where are those gilt yields right now? How close are they to the danger zone where the chancellor ends up breaking her rules?
Short answer: worryingly close. Because, right now, the yield on five-year government debt (which is the maturity the OBR focuses on most) is more than halfway towards that danger zone – only 56 basis points away from hitting the point where debt interest costs eat up any leeway the chancellor has to avoid breaking her rules.
Now, we are not in crisis territory yet. Nor can every move in currencies and bonds be attributed to this budget.
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Markets are volatile right now. There’s lots going on: a US election next week and a Bank of England decision on interest rates next week.
The chancellor could get lucky. Gilt yields could settle in the coming days. But, right now, the UK, with its high level of public and private debt, with its new government which has just pledged to borrow many billions more in the coming years, is being closely scrutinised by the “bond vigilantes”.
A Halloween nightmare for any chancellor.
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