Even Musk seems to realize that Tesla’s future pricing numbers are made up
Tesla’s pricing numbers for its future vehicles are all over the place and changing by the minute. Just today, CEO Elon Musk revealed that the promised $30k price for Robotaxi would be “post-incentive” – before saying the car would cost $25k just minutes later.
During Tesla’s Robotaxi event earlier this month, the company revealed that the autonomous-focused vehicle would be available to end users for just a $30k base price.
While this isn’t quite the $25k car we’ve been promised for many years, the $30k pricetag for a fully autonomous vehicle did seem quite attractive to many people.
…If it were real. And it turns out it was not.
Today on Tesla’s earnings call, Musk made multiple conflicting statements about the pricing of the Tesla Robotaxi, suggesting that even he has no idea how much the vehicle will cost when it comes out.
The first question asked on the call went thusly:
Is Tesla still on track to deliver the more affordable model next year, as mentioned by Elon earlier, and how does it align with your AI and product roadmap?
We just reported on this earlier today, when the shareholder letter said that more affordable models will come out next year. We came away questioning which model Tesla is talking about – will it be the Model Y refresh, or an actual new model that we haven’t yet heard anything about?
In response to this shareholder question, Tesla added a third option into the mix: maybe they were talking about Robotaxi? (which, it should be noted, almost everybody except Musk recognizes is not actually coming out next year)
Tesla answered the question in this way:
As Elon and Vaibhav both said, it’s our plan to meet that in the first half of next year. Our mission has always been to lower the cost of our vehicles to increase the adoption of sustainable energy and transport. Part of that is lowering the cost for current vehicles. The next stage in that fits into our AI roadmap which is when we bring in Robotaxi which lowers the initial cost of getting into an EV
Then, immediately after this discussion about Robotaxi, Musk immediately added:
It’ll be like, with incentive, sub 30k. Which is kind of a key threshold.
And this is actually new information. Prior to this, Tesla had only said that the vehicle would start at $30k – without specifying if this was pre- or post- incentive.
If it’s post-incentive, that means the Robotaxi will have a base price of potentially $37,499 – which is in fact not measurably more affordable than other cars Tesla has made before.
Previously, the Model 3 has sort-of-kind-of been available for $35k as an “off-menu” item, but it’s questionable whether anyone was able to take advantage of that brief pricing window. But Tesla still has a blog post on its site announcing this vehicle’s availability.
More realistically, the cheapest available Tesla has been the $38,990 Model 3 from last year, which was available with an upfront $7,500 federal tax credit. That puts it at just $1,400 more expensive than the future $37.5k Robotaxi, a less than 4% difference in price.
So the Robotaxi does not look to be significantly cheaper than past models, and the $30k price seems to be based on incentives.
Notably, these are incentives that Musk is actively working to end. Musk has committed hundreds of millions of dollars to harm EVs, aiming his money at a candidate who asked oil companies to bribe him to end EV incentives, whose Project 2025 platform calls for an end to the bill that created these EV incentives, and who has hallucinated about ending an EV mandate that doesn’t exist.
So it might be hard to meet that $30k number if Musk has committed so much money and time towards ending the incentive that he just acknowledged his pricing promise relies on.
But maybe it’s not actually going to be $37.5k after all?
Because, later in the same call, when asked when Tesla would have a $25k model vehicle (like the one Musk recently cancelled) that isn’t the Robotaxi/Cybercab, Musk said: “having a regular 25k model is pointless” and then later in the same answer, said about the Robotaxi that “it’ll cost on the order of constructively 25k. So it is a 25k car. And you will be able to buy one exclusively if you want.”
So, despite just minutes ago clarifying that the Robotaxi would be $30k after incentive, he went on to say that it would instead cost $25k, and didn’t mention whether incentives are involved in that pricing number.
This $5k change in pricing over the course of just a few minutes recalls a similar passage in Tesla’s 2024 shareholder meeting, wherein Musk suggested that Optimus robots (which are currently operated remotely by humans) could eventually be worth some $20 trillion to Tesla’s market cap. A few minutes later, Musk said he thinks it would be worth $25 trillion to Tesla’s market cap – a jump in valuation larger than the total value of any company in the history of the world, and over the course of just a few minutes no less.
All of this suggests something that many observers have recognized for a while: when a number comes out of Elon Musk’s mouth, it may or may not have any bearing in reality. That’s certainly been the case on release dates at many points in Tesla’s past, and to Musk’s claims on FSD interventions. But it has also applied to prices, and that seems to apply again here.
The difference this time, however, is that instead of picking one fake price and sticking to it, even after it’s apparent that it won’t be the case, Musk now seems to change his fake numbers from sentence to sentence.
Perhaps he’s finally realizing the thing everyone else realized long ago.
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Wind energy powered 20% of all electricity consumed in Europe (19% in the EU) in 2024, and the EU has set a goal to grow this share to 34% by 2030 and more than 50% by 2050.
To stay on track, the EU needs to install 30 GW of new wind farms annually, but it only managed 13 GW in 2024 – 11.4 GW onshore and 1.4 GW offshore. This is what’s holding the EU back from achieving its wind growth goals.
Three big problems holding Europe’s wind power back
Europe’s wind power growth is stalling for three key reasons:
Permitting delays. Many governments haven’t implemented the EU’s new permitting rules, making it harder for projects to move forward.
Grid connection bottlenecks. Over 500 GW(!) of potential wind capacity is stuck in grid connection queues.
Slow electrification. Europe’s economy isn’t electrifying fast enough to drive demand for more renewable energy.
Brussels-based trade association WindEurope CEO Giles Dickson summed it up: “The EU must urgently tackle all three problems. More wind means cheaper power, which means increased competitiveness.”
Permitting: Germany sets the standard
Permitting remains a massive roadblock, despite new EU rules aimed at streamlining the process. In fact, the situation worsened in 2024 in many countries. The bright spot? Germany. By embracing the EU’s permitting rules — with measures like binding deadlines and treating wind energy as a public interest priority — Germany approved a record 15 GW of new onshore wind in 2024. That’s seven times more than five years ago.
If other governments follow Germany’s lead, Europe could unlock the full potential of wind energy and bolster energy security.
Grid connections: a growing crisis
Access to the electricity grid is now the biggest obstacle to deploying wind energy. And it’s not just about long queues — Europe’s grid infrastructure isn’t expanding fast enough to keep up with demand. A glaring example is Germany’s 900-megawatt (MW) Borkum Riffgrund 3 offshore wind farm. The turbines are ready to go, but the grid connection won’t be in place until 2026.
This issue isn’t isolated. Governments need to accelerate grid expansion if they’re serious about meeting renewable energy targets.
Electrification: falling behind
Wind energy’s growth is also tied to how quickly Europe electrifies its economy. Right now, electricity accounts for just 23% of the EU’s total energy consumption. That needs to jump to 61% by 2050 to align with climate goals. However, electrification efforts in key sectors like transportation, heating, and industry are moving too slowly.
European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen has tasked Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen with crafting an Electrification Action Plan. That can’t come soon enough.
More wind farms awarded, but challenges persist
On a positive note, governments across Europe awarded a record 37 GW of new wind capacity (29 GW in the EU) in 2024. But without faster permitting, better grid connections, and increased electrification, these awards won’t translate into the clean energy-producing wind farms Europe desperately needs.
Investments and corporate interest
Investments in wind energy totaled €31 billion in 2024, financing 19 GW of new capacity. While onshore wind investments remained strong at €24 billion, offshore wind funding saw a dip. Final investment decisions for offshore projects remain challenging due to slow permitting and grid delays.
Corporate consumers continue to show strong interest in wind energy. Half of all electricity contracted under Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) in 2024 was wind. Dedicated wind PPAs were 4 GW out of a total of 12 GW of renewable PPAs.
Read more: Renewables could meet almost half of global electricity demand by 2030 – IEA
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In the Electrek Podcast, we discuss the most popular news in the world of sustainable transport and energy. In this week’s episode, we discuss the official unveiling of the new Tesla Model Y, Mazda 6e, Aptera solar car production-intent, and more.
The show is live every Friday at 4 p.m. ET on Electrek’s YouTube channel.
As a reminder, we’ll have an accompanying post, like this one, on the site with an embedded link to the live stream. Head to the YouTube channel to get your questions and comments in.
After the show ends at around 5 p.m. ET, the video will be archived on YouTube and the audio on all your favorite podcast apps:
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The Chinese EV leader is launching a new flagship electric sedan. BYD’s new Han L EV leaked in China on Friday, revealing a potential Tesla Model S Plaid challenger.
What we know about the BYD Han L EV so far
We knew it was coming soon after BYD teased the Han L on social media a few days ago. Now, we are learning more about what to expect.
BYD’s new electric sedan appeared in China’s latest Ministry of Industry and Information Tech (MIIT) filing, a catalog of new vehicles that will soon be sold.
The filing revealed four versions, including two EV and two PHEV models. The Han L EV will be available in single- and dual-motor configurations. With a peak power of 580 kW (777 hp), the single-motor model packs more power than expected.
BYD’s dual-motor Han L gains an additional 230 kW (308 hp) front-mounted motor. As CnEVPost pointed out, the vehicle’s back has a “2.7S” badge, which suggests a 0 to 100 km/h (0 to 62 mph) sprint time of just 2.7 seconds.
To put that into perspective, the Tesla Model S Plaid can accelerate from 0 to 100 km in 2.1 seconds. In China, the Model S Plaid starts at RBM 814,900, or over $110,000. Speaking of Tesla, the EV leader just unveiled its highly anticipated Model Y “Juniper” refresh in China on Thursday. It starts at RMB 263,500 ($36,000).
BYD already sells the Han EV in China, starting at around RMB 200,000. However, the single front motor, with a peak power of 180 kW, is much less potent than the “L” model. The Han EV can accelerate from 0 to 100 km/h in 7.9 seconds.
At 5,050 mm long, 1,960 mm wide, and 1,505 mm tall with a wheelbase of 2,970 mm, BYD’s new Han L is roughly the size of the Model Y (4,970 mm long, 1,964 mm wide, 1,445 mm tall, wheelbase of 2,960 mm).
Other than that it will use a lithium iron phosphate (LFP) pack from BYD’s FinDreams unit, no other battery specs were revealed. Check back soon for the full rundown.
Source: CnEVPost, China MIIT
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