Even Musk seems to realize that Tesla’s future pricing numbers are made up
Tesla’s pricing numbers for its future vehicles are all over the place and changing by the minute. Just today, CEO Elon Musk revealed that the promised $30k price for Robotaxi would be “post-incentive” – before saying the car would cost $25k just minutes later.
During Tesla’s Robotaxi event earlier this month, the company revealed that the autonomous-focused vehicle would be available to end users for just a $30k base price.
While this isn’t quite the $25k car we’ve been promised for many years, the $30k pricetag for a fully autonomous vehicle did seem quite attractive to many people.
…If it were real. And it turns out it was not.
Today on Tesla’s earnings call, Musk made multiple conflicting statements about the pricing of the Tesla Robotaxi, suggesting that even he has no idea how much the vehicle will cost when it comes out.
The first question asked on the call went thusly:
Is Tesla still on track to deliver the more affordable model next year, as mentioned by Elon earlier, and how does it align with your AI and product roadmap?
We just reported on this earlier today, when the shareholder letter said that more affordable models will come out next year. We came away questioning which model Tesla is talking about – will it be the Model Y refresh, or an actual new model that we haven’t yet heard anything about?
In response to this shareholder question, Tesla added a third option into the mix: maybe they were talking about Robotaxi? (which, it should be noted, almost everybody except Musk recognizes is not actually coming out next year)
Tesla answered the question in this way:
As Elon and Vaibhav both said, it’s our plan to meet that in the first half of next year. Our mission has always been to lower the cost of our vehicles to increase the adoption of sustainable energy and transport. Part of that is lowering the cost for current vehicles. The next stage in that fits into our AI roadmap which is when we bring in Robotaxi which lowers the initial cost of getting into an EV
Then, immediately after this discussion about Robotaxi, Musk immediately added:
It’ll be like, with incentive, sub 30k. Which is kind of a key threshold.
And this is actually new information. Prior to this, Tesla had only said that the vehicle would start at $30k – without specifying if this was pre- or post- incentive.
If it’s post-incentive, that means the Robotaxi will have a base price of potentially $37,499 – which is in fact not measurably more affordable than other cars Tesla has made before.
Previously, the Model 3 has sort-of-kind-of been available for $35k as an “off-menu” item, but it’s questionable whether anyone was able to take advantage of that brief pricing window. But Tesla still has a blog post on its site announcing this vehicle’s availability.
More realistically, the cheapest available Tesla has been the $38,990 Model 3 from last year, which was available with an upfront $7,500 federal tax credit. That puts it at just $1,400 more expensive than the future $37.5k Robotaxi, a less than 4% difference in price.
So the Robotaxi does not look to be significantly cheaper than past models, and the $30k price seems to be based on incentives.
Notably, these are incentives that Musk is actively working to end. Musk has committed hundreds of millions of dollars to harm EVs, aiming his money at a candidate who asked oil companies to bribe him to end EV incentives, whose Project 2025 platform calls for an end to the bill that created these EV incentives, and who has hallucinated about ending an EV mandate that doesn’t exist.
So it might be hard to meet that $30k number if Musk has committed so much money and time towards ending the incentive that he just acknowledged his pricing promise relies on.
But maybe it’s not actually going to be $37.5k after all?
Because, later in the same call, when asked when Tesla would have a $25k model vehicle (like the one Musk recently cancelled) that isn’t the Robotaxi/Cybercab, Musk said: “having a regular 25k model is pointless” and then later in the same answer, said about the Robotaxi that “it’ll cost on the order of constructively 25k. So it is a 25k car. And you will be able to buy one exclusively if you want.”
So, despite just minutes ago clarifying that the Robotaxi would be $30k after incentive, he went on to say that it would instead cost $25k, and didn’t mention whether incentives are involved in that pricing number.
This $5k change in pricing over the course of just a few minutes recalls a similar passage in Tesla’s 2024 shareholder meeting, wherein Musk suggested that Optimus robots (which are currently operated remotely by humans) could eventually be worth some $20 trillion to Tesla’s market cap. A few minutes later, Musk said he thinks it would be worth $25 trillion to Tesla’s market cap – a jump in valuation larger than the total value of any company in the history of the world, and over the course of just a few minutes no less.
All of this suggests something that many observers have recognized for a while: when a number comes out of Elon Musk’s mouth, it may or may not have any bearing in reality. That’s certainly been the case on release dates at many points in Tesla’s past, and to Musk’s claims on FSD interventions. But it has also applied to prices, and that seems to apply again here.
The difference this time, however, is that instead of picking one fake price and sticking to it, even after it’s apparent that it won’t be the case, Musk now seems to change his fake numbers from sentence to sentence.
Perhaps he’s finally realizing the thing everyone else realized long ago.
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Elon Musk said today that Tesla will double its electric vehicle production in the US in the next two years.
What would that look like? Let’s do the math.
Today, during a press conference to promote Tesla at the White House, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the following:
“As a function of the great policies of President Trump and his administration, and as an act of faith in America, Tesla is going to double vehicle output in the United States within the next two years.”
This raises many questions, as Musk’s phrasing of the statement suggests that Tesla is planning to add previously unannounced production capacity in response to Trump’s policies.
However, the reality could be different.
What is Tesla’s current production capacity in the US?
We only know Tesla’s installed capacity, which is much different than its actual production rate.
This is Tesla’s latest disclosed global production capacity at the end of 2024:
| Region | Model | Capacity | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| California | Model S / Model X | 100,000 | Production |
| Model 3 / Model Y | >550,000 | Production | |
| Shanghai | Model 3 / Model Y | >950,000 | Production |
| Berlin | Model Y | >375,000 | Production |
| Texas | Model Y | >250,000 | Production |
| Cybertruck | >125,000 | Production | |
| Cybercab | — | In development | |
| Nevada | Tesla Semi | — | Pilot production |
| TBD | Roadster | — | In development |
In the US, it adds up to 1,025,000 vehicles per year.
In reality, Tesla’s factories are operating at a much lower capacity.
Based on sales and inventory from 2024, Tesla is currently building fewer than 50,000 Model S/X vehicles per year compared to an installed capacity of 100,000 units.
As for Model 3 and Model Y, Tesla is currently building them in the US at a rate of about 600,000 units per year compared to claimed installed capacity of over 800,000 units.
Finally, the Cybertruck is being produced at a rate of less than 50,000 units per year compared to an installed capacity of over 125,000 units.
This adds up to Tesla producing 700,000 units per year in the US in 2024.
What will be Tesla’s new capacity?
Considering Musk mentioned that it will happen “within the next two years”, it is unlikely that he is referring to installed capacity.
The CEO is most likely talking about Tesla’s actual production, which would also make sense, especially considering he mentioned “output.”
Tesla currently outputs roughly 700,000 vehicles per year in the US.
Doubling that would mean bringing the total to 1.4 million units per year, which would be an incredible feat, but it’s not entirely a new plan for Tesla.
First off, Tesla has already announced plans to unveil two new, more affordable models this year. These models are going to be built on the same production lines as Model 3/Y, which would potentially enable Tesla to fully utilize its installed capacity for those vehicles.
That’s another 200,000 units already.
As already mentioned in Tesla’s installed capacity table, the company is currently developing its production facility for the Tesla Semi electric truck in Nevada.
Production is expected to start later this year and ramp up next year. Tesla has previously mentioned a goal of 50,000 units per year. It would leave Tesla roughly a year and half to ramp up to this capacity, which is ambitious, but not impossible.
Then there’s the “Cybercab”, which was unveiled last year.
The Cybercab is going to use Tesla’s next-gen vehicle platform and new manufacturing system, which is already being deployed at Gigafactory Texas.
Production is expected to start in 2026, and Musk has mentioned a production capacity of “at least 2 million units per year”. However, he said that this would likely come from more than one factory and it’s unclear if the other factory would be in the US.
Either way, Tesla would need to ramp up Cybercab production in the US to 450,000 units to make Musk’s announcement correct.
It’s fair to note that all of this was part of Tesla’s plans before the US elections, Trump’s coming into power, or the implementation of any policies whatsoever.
Electrek’s Take
Based on my analysis, this announcement is nothing new. It’s just a reiteration of Elon’s plans for Tesla in the US, which were established long before Trump came to power or even before Elon officially backed Trump.
It’s just more “corporate puffery” as Elon’s lawyers would say.
Also, if I wasn’t clear, we are only talking about production here. I doubt Tesla will have the demand for that, especially if Elon remains involved with the company.
The Cybercab doesn’t even have a steering wheel, and if Tesla doesn’t solve self-driving, it will be hard to justify producing 450,000 units per year.
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The average incentive package for a new EV was 14.8% of the average transaction price (ATP), or approximately $8,162, the highest level in more than five years, according to the latest monthly new-vehicle ATP report from Cox Automotive’s Kelley Blue Book.
Incentives for EVs are more than twice the overall market. A year ago, EV incentives were 10.2%. EV incentives, as a percentage of ATP, have increased by 44% in the past year.
In February, at $55,273, new EV prices were lower by 1.2% from January – generally aligned with the industry – and higher by 3.7% year-over-year. The January EV ATP was revised higher by 0.06% to $55,929.
Compared to the overall industry ATP of $48,039, EV ATPs in February were higher by 15.1%, an increase from the 14.9% gap recorded in January.
EV market leader Tesla increased ATPs by 1.8% year-over-year in February to $53,248 but decreased by 3.7% month-over-month from $55,315. Model 3, Model Y, and Cybertruck posted price declines in February compared to January; Model S and Model X saw month-over-month increases.
As sales cooled, the Cybertruck ATP in February dropped by more than 10% from January to an estimated $87,554.
Read more: You can lease a 2025 Polestar 3 for the same price as a Polestar 2 right now
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Environment
US President does infomercial at White House for company owned by his biggest political donor
Donald Trump, the President of the United States, performed what basically amounts to an infomercial at the White House for Tesla, a company controlled by his biggest political donor, a day after its stock crashed.
Yesterday, Tesla’s stock crashed 15% – resulting in a 50% drop from its peak in December.
Last night, Trump posted a message on Truth Social supporting Elon Musk, Tesla’s CEO and his biggest political donor. In the message, he called the Tesla boycotts “illegal” and he said that he would be buying a Tesla vehicle to show his support for Musk.
He has apparently followed through today, but he went a quite a bit further as he held a press conference in front of Tesla vehicles at the White House:
The President, who has previously shared misinformation about electric vehicles being “unusable,” praised Tesla’s vehicles and said that he would be buying a Model S Plaid.
He is not allowed to drive, so he said that he would let White House staff use the vehicle instead.
Tesla’s stock (TSLA) rose up 5% on the publicity stunt today, but it closed up 3.8% compared to being down 15% yesterday.
Electrek’s Take
When I write those headlines, I feel like I’m running The Onion in an alternative universe where satire is the reality.
But you can’t accuse me of “clickbaiting” because this headline is actually accurate.
For years, Trump has been one of the biggest promoters of misinformation about electric vehicles in the US. We have often reported on the ridiculous things he has said about them.
That hasn’t changed. In fact, Trump is still pushing hard against electric vehicles. We recently reported on Trump shutting down 8,000 EV chargers at federal buildings and he is pushing to remove the tax credit on electric vehicles.
This is purely transactional. Elon gave him $250 million, so now that Tesla’s stock is in free fall, he gives him a boost.
Like his Bitcoin pump, it isn’t likely to work. My hope is that it will at least help open the minds of some of his fans to electric vehicles, but I have doubts.
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