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  • Paolo Uggetti, ESPNOct 25, 2024, 07:00 AM ET

BOISE, Idaho — On a gloomy October morning, Boise State‘s Albertsons Stadium was nearly empty but full of action. There were a few scattered donors among the grandstands and a handful of NFL scouts dotting the sidelines of the blue turf during this bye-week practice.

All of them want to catch a glimpse of Ashton Jeanty.

It doesn’t take long to see that inside this universe, Jeanty has become the sun. The 2023 Mountain West Offensive Player of the Year is no sudden revelation, but the season that the 20-year-old junior running back has put together is turning him into a local phenomenon and a nationwide sensation.

“I did have high hopes for myself,” Jeanty told ESPN. “I had it in my mind that this was going to be a legendary season, but I didn’t know exactly how that was going to unravel.”

The traditional traits and stories that accompany an athlete of Jeanty’s makeup are there. Yes, he’s the humble, down-to-earth star, and wouldn’t you believe that he’s also the first one in the building? Or that he is the one who doesn’t turn down an extra workout even if it’s in the snowy winter and after the season has ended?

There are the superhuman tales of his strength that follow him, too. The 320-pound bench press? That’s Jeanty. A 300-pound power clean? Jeanty. The 600-pound squat?

“He once did 605 like it was nothing and he had to be cut off,” Boise State head coach Spencer Danielson said. “He lifts with the offensive linemen.”

Yet any display of strength can often mask Jeanty’s unique speed and agility. During a run this season, he was clocked at over 22 mph. On his way to a nation-leading 1,248 yards and 17 touchdowns, he has outrun some of the fastest defensive backs in the sport and rumbled his way through entire defenses. It’s as if a semitruck could drive like a Ferrari.

“The first guy never brings him down,” Broncos running backs coach James Montgomery said. “Then he puts everybody in slow motion.”

The results have made Jeanty undeniable. Through six games, he’s on pace to break Barry Sanders’ single-season records for rushing yards (2,628) and touchdowns (37). Defenses know he’ll touch the ball over 20 times a game and have sold out to stop him. It hasn’t mattered.

“Domination,” Jeanty said of what he thinks when he runs. “To dominate whoever’s in front of me, to make them quit. And it doesn’t happen on the 10th run, it doesn’t happen on the second run. It’s usually somewhere around the 15th or 20th run.”

During a time in the sport when running backs are no longer as en vogue as they once were, Jeanty feels like a throwback. His particular combination of size, speed and intelligence has allowed Jeanty to turn what could be a monotonous ground game into a blockbuster.

Boise State — ranked No. 17 in the AP poll — has put together a 5-1 season (its only loss being to now-No. 1 Oregon) and forged a path to a College Football Playoff berth ahead of Friday’s game with UNLV. The Broncos have done it behind Jeanty, who has made a handoff one of the most exciting preludes in the sport. Once the ball is cradled against his chest and he takes the first step, anything is possible.

It’s why everyone from Idaho to Italy is watching.

AT 3 A.M. ON a Sunday in September near the seaside town of Naples in southwest Italy, Jim Davis was barely hanging on.

There’s no shortage of espresso in this part of the world to keep the head coach of the Naples Wildcats awake — and trust me, he said, plenty is consumed — but there was something else that had him laid out on his couch instead of his bed, straddling the line between somnambulant and alert.

On the naval support base about 18 miles east of the Tyrrhenian Sea where Davis has coached since 2016, the American Forces Network allows him to tune in to Jeanty’s games. At times, with a time zone difference of anywhere from 8 to 11 hours, Davis has allowed himself to catch replays or highlights after the fact. Lately, Jeanty’s play has made the early wake-up call essential.

“It reminds me of the feeling I had before when he was here, when you know he’s got the potential to score every time he touches the ball,” Davis said.

Jeanty arrived in Italy as a 12-year-old whose father, Harry, was a commanding officer on the naval support base in Aversa, a small town near Naples. In middle school, there was no tackle football team, so Jeanty tried his hand at basketball and track and field and bided his time.

He made the varsity football team as a freshman at Naples High and was thrust into the team’s offense. Davis’ initial reflex was to put Jeanty at quarterback. The experiment didn’t go poorly, but it was short-lived. After two games, Jeanty settled in running back, where Davis’ strategy became simple.

“This kid just needs to touch the ball every down,” Davis said. “He had the speed and power, and he was hungry for more yards. We were restricting him at quarterback. I thought, ‘I could find anybody to just hand the ball off to him.'”

The football season in Naples is short, but the journeys it took Jeanty on were not. A nine-hour bus ride to Aviano in Northeast Italy to play Naples’ closest opponent at an Air Force base there. A flight to Spain, another trip to Brussels and even an 18-hour, multiday trip to Spangdahlem, Germany, where Davis remembers having to ice and treat teammates for injuries on the bus. Some stadiums didn’t even have lights, forcing games to be played in the afternoon in the middle of the hot, humid weather. Despite it all, Jeanty dominated. In one season, he had 1,223 yards on 97 carries (over 12 yards per carry) and totaled 21 touchdowns in just six games.

“I’m trying to remember, did we lose any games?” Jeanty said. “I don’t think we lost any games.”

They were 6-0.

Even at that age, Jeanty was thinking ahead. He would take the footage of games and put together a reel of his best highlights. After his freshman year, he told his parents that he wanted to go back to the States and play football. Davis was neither surprised nor disappointed. He knew Jeanty needed exposure and that, if given the opportunity, he would flourish.

“He didn’t think that he was the best and didn’t need to work hard,” Davis said. “He was the best, but he had that desire to get better.”

Jeanty’s journey continued 5,700 miles west in Frisco, Texas. The staff at Lone Star High School didn’t know much about Jeanty beyond his highlight reel against competition abroad. But any mystery was short lived.

“Once he showed up, obviously, his physical stature, I mean, he’s built like a Greek god,” Lone Star head coach Jeff Rayburn said. “We were like, ‘Alright, I bet you can we can find something for this kid to do.'”

After two seasons of playing him all over the field on both sides of the ball and backing more experienced runners, the backfield became Jeanty’s his senior season.

“We gave him the ball and just got out of the way,” Rayburn said of Jeanty, who had over 2,000 rushing yards, over 1,000 receiving yards and 41 touchdowns that season. “He did everything for us.”

As a three-star who burst onto the scene later than most, Jeanty received offers from only two Power 4 programs — Cal and Kansas. How did a kid from Jacksonsville, who lived in Italy and Texas end up Idaho? Through his recruiting process, Jeanty was not afraid to go anywhere to pursue his dream. In Boise State, he found the right people and the right place to develop. Nowadays, Rayburn likes to joke with the Broncos coaches who visit Lone Star that he did them a favor.

“You’re welcome for not playing him full-time at running back his junior year,” Rayburn tells them. “He would have been a national recruit.”

Rayburn claims he has not been surprised by Jeanty. In fact, before this season began, he asked his former player for one thing in advance: “Just make sure when you go to New York [for the Heisman], you get me an invite to go out there with you.”

THE VISITING COACHES’ booth atop Autzen Stadium is where Boise State offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter could see what Danielson wasn’t able to just yet.

Jeanty had broken through the Ducks’ defensive line and found daylight on the other side. Ten yards ahead, a lone safety awaited. Danielson thought Jeanty would be tackled. From above, Koetter saw it differently.

“It’s out,” Danielson remembered hearing Koetter say through the headset. Sure enough, Jeanty made a cut toward the right sideline, and everyone was left staring at the back of his jersey.

Throughout this season, the Broncos’ coaching staff, from their various vantage points, have tried their best to identify the exact moment when they realize that Jeanty’s runs will turn into a breakaway touchdown. Koetter’s bird’s-eye view makes him particularly well positioned to make the call. But from the sideline, Danielson and Montgomery have enjoyed the feeling of experiencing a Jeanty breakthrough with the entire team.

Sometimes, Danielson said, Jeanty’s explosiveness through the line of scrimmage has made him call his shot early. Other times, such as against Washington State, they have thought the play was over, that Jeanty was tackled, only to find that he remained upright and was running all the way to the end zone.

The way in which Jeanty has traversed the field has varied, but the results haven’t. Give him the ball, and he’ll make magic.

“We use him as a decoy. We hand him the ball, we fake it to him,” Koetter said. “I mean, he’s the centerpiece of our offense. We don’t try to hide that.”

Even as a freshman who enrolled early as a 17-year-old in 2021, Jeanty showed flashes.

“You could tell he was going to be good,” Koetter, who was an offensive analyst and eventually interim offensive coordinator in 2022, said. “But the best player in the country? Maybe not.”

Montgomery saw it coming perhaps more than most. The Broncos’ running backs coach had seen Jeanty’s progression from his freshman season through last year, when he split carries with George Holani. Jeanty was “fanatical about getting better at every aspect of the game.”

And once the team began practices for this season, Montgomery was blown away. Jeanty’s work ethic and effort have been high since his days playing for Davis in Naples or in Texas for Rayburn, who said Jeanty “only knew one speed.” This, however, was on another level.

“He came out like an animal. He was practicing hard,” he said. “Every single rep, didn’t matter what the drill was, special teams, offense. And then we got to the first scrimmage, and we’re like, ‘Nah, we better tone it back a little bit.'”

Even though they dialed back the intensity, it only increased the anticipation. Montgomery knew everyone was awaiting what Jeanty would do in the season opener.

Jeanty didn’t disappoint. He broke the school record for most rushing yards in a game and found the end zone six times. From there, he was off and running. He has now had three games of at least 200 rushing yards and four games of three or more touchdowns.

“I always say we’re chasing perfection, so that’s what we’re chasing with him,” Montgomery said. “But he’s played as close as you can get to perfect this year. “

There’s an alternate reality where Jeanty’s perfect season happens while he is wearing a different jersey. Once last season ended, the phone calls to Jeanty and his family from coaches came in droves telling them Jeanty should enter the transfer portal and play for a bigger program on a bigger stage.

Danielson, who was thrust into the interim head-coaching position last season after the Boise State fired Andy Avalos, knew what his first move needed to be once he was hired as the permanent head coach.

“Keeping him was such a huge priority for us,” Danielson said. “Beyond what he does on the field, he’s a culture changer, he’s a culture igniter.”

Jeanty didn’t want to leave. His teammates and coaches knew he could have gone anywhere, but after a single meeting between Danielson, Boise athletic director Jeramiah Dickey, Jeanty and his dad in which they outlined Jeanty’s role as well as the name, image and likeness opportunities and support the school would offer, Jeanty didn’t hesitate.

“I knew in the back of my head I was never going to leave,” Jeanty said while adding that the money was never his top priority. There are reports that Jeanty received a base compensation package of $300,000 to stay. One industry source familiar with the NIL market said Jeanty could have gotten upward of $750,000 had he opted to leave.

“Now did some of those calls about this money and this and that sound good? They sure did,” Jeanty said. “I mean, to any 19-year-old, those things would sound good. But just realizing your values and priorities was also sounding good, too. And those thoughts were stronger than the others. Doing this here means more than anything you could get somewhere else.”

MOST OF US will never know what it’s like to run 70 yards for a touchdown while barreling through linebackers and speeding past cornerbacks. Even Jeanty’s own teammates can only draft off the feeling from their respective positions.

Quarterback Maddux Madsen relishes having “the best seat in the house” to watch the Jeanty show. Once he hands the ball off, he watches the play develop in front of him and stands back in awe.

“As soon as he gets past the first level and second level, I’m just like, all right, I probably could realistically just walk to the sideline,” Madsen said. “It’d be totally fine.”

Wide receiver Latrell Caples can never truly see the play in real time. While focused on blocking, he often has to rely on the video board or the highlight reels postgame to fully appreciate the latest offering from Jeanty.

“I’ve never seen anybody do the stuff he does at practice, let alone the game,” Caples said.

Defensive end Ahmed Hassanein joked that while he enjoys watching Jeanty dominate from the sideline, it also means that the defense has to go back out on the field sooner.

“Somebody needs to stop him, because I need a break on the sideline,” Hassanein joked. “One attempt, and he already scores, so I’m like, ‘Damn, that’s good, but give me some time. I need a breather.”

Jeanty’s roommate, safety Zion Washington, has a unique perspective, too. As a defender, he has seen firsthand how hard it is to contain him.

“I would hate to play against him in a game,” Washington said. “The things he does is just different — you don’t see them from a regular back.”

Washington, a high school friend of Jeanty’s, has seen the running back go from a confident, quiet kid to the center of attention. The guy who often asks Washington to keep the apartment clean and trash-talks during video games is also the one who now makes their Sunday church trips longer. Everyone there wants to talk to him or take a picture.

“It is hard sometimes to see all the positivity around me, all the attention,” Jeanty said. “I’m not really a guy that wants attention. If you ask anybody about me, I’m chill. I’m an out-the-way type of guy. I don’t really need all the spotlight on me, but it’s cool for what I’m doing to be able to have that.”

A natural byproduct of success on the field is success and fame off it. But Jeanty’s eye-popping runs and stats have brought about a reverence and even an obsession from the college football world and beyond that harkens back to his days in Europe.

“I remember being in Belgium, that was an international school we played, and it was funny how many parents and moms came up to him from the opposing team wanting to take pictures,” Davis said. “They were like, ‘You’re going to be famous one day.'”

Now, he is.

His teammates don’t let him forget that he’s just one of them even if they can’t go anywhere on their phones without seeing praise being heaped on their friend.

“I’m scrolling through my phone. Everything’s Ashton. Everything’s Ashton,” Washington said. “One day we were just chilling and Kevin Durant followed him. He was like, ‘KD just followed.’ We’re like, ‘What?’ That’s not normal. We go through things like that. It’s just like, that’s crazy. But it doesn’t faze him.”

For Washington, it’s validating to witness it all happen after he was part of the conversations aimed at keeping Jeanty in Bronco colors. Now, his guy — their guy — has the potential to be the first Group of 5 Heisman winner since BYU’s Ty Detmer in 1990 and the sixth first-round draft selection from Boise State. For some, it might be too early to start thinking about how they will be remembered. Not Jeanty. He has made the Heisman and the NFL his long-term goals, and he has already launched a football scholarship in his name for future players.

“We told him, ‘You can do something that no one’s ever done,'” Washington said. “‘You could do things out here in this city where you’ve already been accomplishing big goals that no one has ever, ever done. You could break records here and win the Heisman here. That’s a legacy.'”

WHEN IT COMES to one of his iconic runs, no one has the vantage point that Jeanty does. So after a recent Boise State practice, I asked Jeanty to put me there — inside his helmet, yes — but more importantly inside his brain as he takes the ball and launches into one of these runs that are a staple of his highlight reels.

Of course, Jeanty quickly points out that I have gotten ahead of myself. It does not begin when the ball touches his hands but rather well before the ball is even snapped. His stance, which he notes that some people have joked about because of its stoic posture, is part of the method to his madness.

“I’m just back there relaxed,” Jeanty said. “I’m just analyzing the defense, I’m seeing what type of front we’re getting, the linebacker placement, not too worried about the corners, but really the safeties to see the shell of the coverage and see what we’re running against.”

In the span of less than a minute, Jeanty is analyzing which defenders he’ll likely have to run through and which he’ll have to make miss, as well as how the run might affect the defensive line based on their placement. Each run has a key and a read on a defender he’ll have to make to determine how it changes “my fit to the run.” The goal, he said, is to be ready to troubleshoot once the play begins.

“If anything goes wrong or they fit it differently than I think they will or whatever it may be, I kind of already analyzed it before so I’m able then to react,” Jeanty said. “And football, especially running back, it is all reaction based after the ball snaps.”

Hear him speak further on the matter and you’ll realize that the way his roommates describe him — “extremely neat” — translates onto the football field. When he’s running downfield, the way he has studied opposing safeties’ movements and tendencies allows him to make an instinct-based but informed view on whether he’ll try to run through them with force or around them with speed.

“That’s the easy part,” Jeanty said. “I feel like people kind of skip past this, but I played defense a lot of my career, so I know what the defensive guys think when he comes downhill to tackle.”

When Jeanty reaches the end zone these days, the feeling is a familiar one. He has experienced it 17 times this season. The records, accolades and praise are nice, he said, but what he’s chasing goes beyond anything tangible and back to the sensation that set him on this path, one he still remembers to this day.

“After I scored my first touchdown [as a running back], I was in sixth grade and it was just a unique feeling,” Jeanty said. “I was like, ‘Man, I got to have this feeling for a while. I got to keep doing this.'”

Whatever happens this season for Boise, bigger things await for Jeanty. An invitation to New York for the Heisman ceremony seems inevitable, and Jeanty is also projected as a top-15 NFL draft pick.

For now, Jeanty is zeroed in on what’s immediately ahead: winning the following game, maximizing another run, overpowering more defenders and reaching the next end zone.

Even if his demeanor might not always show it, Jeanty’s confidence is at an all-time high, and who can blame him?

No one has been able to stop him.

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Ohtani hits 53rd HR to tie Schwarber for NL lead

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September 21, 2025

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Ohtani hits 53rd HR to tie Schwarber for NL lead

  • ESPN News Services

Sep 21, 2025, 07:19 AM ET

Shohei Ohtani launched his 53rd home run to tie for the National League lead as the Los Angeles Dodgers erased an early four-run deficit Saturday night in a 7-5 victory over the San Francisco Giants.

Ohtani pulled even with Philadelphia Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber when the Japanese star connected for a 403-foot shot to left field in the sixth inning. It was Ohtani’s 29th homer at Dodger Stadium this season, a franchise record. He topped his own mark of 28 last year, when he finished with a career-high 54 on the way to winning his third MVP award and first in the National League.

“I think that the home run title will be great. But I think it’s just a byproduct of taking good at-bats, and he’s playing to win,” Roberts said. “If there’s a walk that’s needed and they’re not pitching to him, he’s taking his walks. And if they make a mistake, he’s making them pay.”

Ohtani also scored his career-high 140th run of the season.

Another remarkable season by the two-way star had the rest of his clubhouse touting the case for a third straight MVP award.

“I haven’t looked up any deep numbers or anything like that, but I think [the MVP is] Shohei,” said starter Tyler Glasnow, who rebounded from a four-run first inning with four scoreless innings to get the win. “He pitches and hits. I think it’s obviously Shohei, in my mind.”

Max Muncy‘s two-run homer in the first inning pulled Los Angeles to 4-2. Michael Conforto also went deep and Tommy Edman hit a tiebreaking shot for the playoff-bound Dodgers, who won their fourth straight and lead the NL West by four games over the San Diego Padres with seven to play.

The Giants stayed four games behind the New York Mets for the last NL wild card, with the Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks also ahead of the Giants.

Jack Dreyer pitched a perfect ninth for his fourth save.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

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College Football Playoff picks after Week 4

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September 21, 2025

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College Football Playoff picks after Week 4

After four weeks of the season, we might have an idea about the true College Football Playoff contenders in each conference.

While a few of the top teams in the SEC and the Big Ten were off in Week 4, the Texas Tech Red Raiders, Indiana Hoosiers, Oklahoma Sooners and Miami Hurricanes got the spotlight.

A surprise team in the 2024 CFP, Indiana put up big numbers on the Illinois Fighting Illini. Fernando Mendoza threw five TD passes in the 63-10 win. The Hoosiers still have the Oregon Ducks and the Penn State Nittany Lions on the schedule, but Indiana passed a conference test in hopes of landing another playoff bid.

The Sooners are trying to jump into the SEC playoff picture in their second season in the league. Oklahoma opened conference play by rocking former Sooners quarterback Jackson Arnold and the Auburn Tigers. OU sacked Arnold 10 times in its 24-17 win.

Miami, one of only two AP top-five teams in action this week, got a test from the 1-3 Florida Gators before closing out a 26-7 win. The Canes’ defense held the Gators to 32 yards in the first half and kept DJ Lagway under 100 yards passing.

Here are our experts’ top 12 College Football Playoff picks:

Andrea Adelson: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. LSU 4. Oklahoma 5. Georgia 6. Oregon 7. Florida State 8. Texas A&M 9. Penn State 10. Indiana 11. TCU 12. Memphis

Kyle Bonagura: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Miami 7. Florida State 8. Indiana 9. Oklahoma 10. Texas 11. Texas Tech 12. South Florida

Bill Connelly: 1. Oregon 2. Ohio State 3. Ole Miss 4. Texas A&M 5. Penn State 6. Miami 7. Georgia 8. Texas Tech 9. LSU 10. Florida State 11. Indiana 12. Memphis

David Hale: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Oregon 4. Georgia 5. Oklahoma 6. Penn State 7. Texas A&M 8. Texas 9. Indiana 10. Florida State 11. Texas Tech 12. Memphis

Max Olson: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Miami 4. Georgia 5. LSU 6. Penn State 7. Texas A&M 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Indiana 11. Texas 12. South Florida

Adam Rittenberg: 1. Ohio State 2. Georgia 3. Miami 4. Oregon 5. LSU 6. Penn State 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Indiana 10. Texas Tech 11. Texas A&M 12. South Florida

Mark Schlabach: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. LSU 5. Oregon 6. Penn State 7. Florida State 8. Oklahoma 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida

Jake Trotter: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Oregon 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida

Paolo Uggetti: 1. Ohio State 2. Oregon 3. Georgia 4. Miami 5. Penn State 6. LSU 7. Oklahoma 8. Indiana 9. Texas Tech 10. Florida State 11. Texas A&M 12. Memphis

Dave Wilson: 1. Ohio State 2. Miami 3. Georgia 4. Penn State 5. LSU 6. Oregon 7. Oklahoma 8. Florida State 9. Texas Tech 10. Texas A&M 11. Indiana 12. South Florida

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Projecting the CFP top 12 after Week 4: There’s a new No. 1

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September 21, 2025

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Projecting the CFP top 12 after Week 4: There's a new No. 1

Is the U back?!

It’s been a minute.

With Miami’s win against rival Florida on Saturday night, the U — winners of five titles between 1983 and 2001 — made a case to be the top team in the country once again.

This is a program that hasn’t won an ACC title since joining the league in 2004, and now the Canes have positioned themselves as not only the top playoff contender in the conference, but also as the top team in the country. It’s still early, but statement wins are hard to come by, and Miami’s résumé now includes wins against Notre Dame, a ranked South Florida and rival Florida.

The 13-member College Football Playoff selection committee doesn’t release its first ranking until Nov. 4, but based on what each team has done to date, Miami is one of the few teams that has looked like the total package.

The list below is fluid — and will continue to be early in the season. Here’s the latest prediction of what the selection committee’s top 12 would look like if it were released today.

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Projecting the top 12

Why they could be here: With wins against Notre Dame, South Florida and now rival Florida, Miami has the best combination of eye test and résumé. It didn’t come easy against the Gators, but Miami’s defense was stifling for the bulk of the game. The selection committee considers the intangibles that accompany a rivalry game and would acknowledge the difficulty of the win, even though Florida is struggling this year. As talented as Ohio State is, Miami now has a stronger case, given the Buckeyes’ best win was against a Texas team that has since fallen out of the projected top 12. Miami has cemented itself as the ACC’s top playoff contender — at least until it’s decided on the field on Oct. 4 against Florida State.

Why they could be lower: If the committee were to rank Ohio State No. 1 at this point, it would simply be because some members think the Buckeyes are more talented.

Need to know: Miami has the best chance of any Power 4 team in the country to win out (19.3%), according to ESPN Analytics.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 at Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gives Miami a 66.1% chance to win.

Why they could be here: The selection committee doesn’t typically move teams if they don’t play, unless there is movement around them — and Miami’s résumé bumped the Canes to the top spot this week. Ohio State’s season-opening win against Texas is still one of the best nonconference wins of the season, but that’s all the Buckeyes have at the moment. A win against Ohio and a 70-0 drubbing of FCS Grambling won’t impress the committee. A win against Texas will, but how much the committee values it on Selection Day depends on how the Longhorns fare all season.

Why they could be higher: If the committee has the Buckeyes at No. 1, it’s going to be by a paper-thin margin. Statistically, Ohio State and Miami entered the week almost dead even in all three phases of the game.

Need to know: According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Ohio State entered this week tied with Georgia and Oregon for the best chance in the country to reach the CFP (77%).

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 vs. Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Buckeyes a 64.9% chance to win.

Why they could be here: The 44-41 overtime win against Tennessee in Week 3 gave the Bulldogs their first statement win against a ranked opponent, and the committee will note that it was on the road. It helped slightly this week that Tennessee showed no signs of a letdown in a lopsided win against overmatched UAB.

Why they could be lower: The win against the Vols might not be enough. Georgia’s other wins are against Marshall and FCS Austin Peay.

Need to know: ESPN’s FPI projects Georgia will win each of its remaining games, which would put the Bulldogs back in the SEC title game. What happens, though, if they lose to Alabama on Saturday? There’s still plenty of time — and opportunity — to impress the committee with wins against opponents such as Auburn, Ole Miss, Texas and Georgia Tech. It’s possible that Georgia could have a win over the eventual ACC champion or runner-up.

Toughest remaining game: Saturday vs. Alabama. This game is at home, and the Bulldogs have an extra week to prepare for it, but the Tide have shown continuous improvement since their season-opening loss to Florida State. ESPN’s FPI gives Georgia a 55% chance to win. Even with a loss, the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Georgia a 65.2% chance to reach the playoff, independent of other results.

Why they could be here: Florida State has been dominant, ranking No. 3 in the country in ESPN’s game control metric. The Noles also entered this week ranked No. 3 in strength of record. The Seminoles are passing the eye test but still need to beef up their résumé beyond a season-opening win against Alabama. The Tide were off this week but have played well against each of their past two unranked opponents, continuing to make Florida State’s win valuable in the committee meeting room. The Seminoles, though, won’t have another chance to impress the group against a ranked opponent until Oct. 4 against Miami.

Why they could be lower: FSU’s statistics are a bit skewed by the Noles’ 77-3 drubbing of FCS team East Texas A&M.

Need to know: Georgia Tech doesn’t face Florida State or Miami during the regular season but could play one of them in the ACC title game. That makes the regular-season rivalry game between the Noles and Canes critical to the ACC race. Entering Week 4, Miami (68%) and Georgia Tech (39.3%) had the best chances to reach the ACC championship game, followed by Florida State (24.1%).

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 4 vs. Miami. ESPN’s FPI gives the Canes a 66.1% chance to win. November games at Clemson and Florida no longer look as daunting.

Why they could be here: The Tigers’ two best wins — against Clemson and Florida — are now against unranked teams with losing records. Florida State has looked better offensively, and its win against Alabama is better than LSU’s wins. The Tigers’ defense, though, has been something the committee members would notice. LSU hasn’t allowed any opponent more than 10 points this season and is fifth in the country in defensive efficiency.

Why they could be lower: Some questions remain about the offensive line, which features four new starters and hasn’t always given quarterback Garrett Nussmeier the time he needs. Nussmeier entered Saturday averaging 5.88 air yards per pass attempt, and the Tigers are still searching for more explosive plays. LSU’s 17 explosive plays entering Saturday were the fewest in the SEC. LSU is No. 62 in the country in offensive efficiency. The selection committee looks for teams that are in the top 10 in both offense and defense.

Need to know: LSU has a chance to enhance its résumé on Saturday at Ole Miss, where a win would be its most impressive to date and provide some cushion for a tough upcoming stretch. LSU’s schedule is No. 9 in the country, according to ESPN Analytics.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 77.1% chance to win.

Why they could be here: Texas A&M had a bye this week after earning one of the best nonconference wins in the country last week at Notre Dame. The Aggies saw their playoff chances increase by 26% following that win. Texas A&M entered this week with a 47% chance to make the playoff. Still, the Aggies are clinging to one win to boost their entire résumé right now, as the rest of their schedule includes UTSA and Utah State.

Why they could be higher: Texas A&M entered this week ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of metric record, which means the average top-25 opponent would have a 37% chance of achieving the same 3-0 record against the same opponents. Some committee members would view the Aggies’ win at Notre Dame as more impressive than the Canes’ win against the Irish because Texas A&M had to win on the road.

Need to know: If Texas A&M doesn’t win the SEC, and it finishes as a 10-2 team — and Notre Dame runs the table and also finishes 10-2 — the selection committee would use the head-to-head result as one of its tiebreakers and give the Aggies the edge. ESPN’s FPI, though, gives Texas A&M less than a 50% chance to beat LSU, Missouri and Texas.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 25 at LSU. The Aggies also have a very difficult trip to rival Texas in the regular-season finale, but right now the Tigers look like a tougher out on the road. ESPN’s FPI gives LSU a 51.6% chance to win.

Why they could be here: Wins against Michigan and Auburn have legitimized the Sooners’ playoff hopes, giving them two quality wins against what could be CFP top 25 opponents. The win against the Wolverines helps separate OU from other contenders with weaker nonconference wins, and it looks even better after the Wolverines beat Nebraska on the road. The selection committee also appreciates star power, and the Sooners have it with quarterback John Mateer, who has a passing and rushing touchdown in 10 straight games.

Why they could be higher: Mateer has been the story early, but the defense and its 10 sacks were the highlight in the win against Auburn, giving the committee a complete team to consider. The wins against Michigan and Auburn might also outweigh the Aggies’ lone win at Notre Dame, though it was on the road and OU won both of its big games at home. The committee would debate if two good wins outweigh one great one — an argument that could also be made with regard to Florida State and its win over Alabama.

Need to know: The Sooners have the fourth-toughest schedule in the FBS, according to ESPN Analytics, so the undefeated start provides a critical cushion for a backloaded schedule that could include as many as six ranked opponents in the final seven games.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Tennessee. Given how tough the Vols played in their overtime loss to Georgia, this should be another slugfest between two talented teams. ESPN’s FPI gives the Vols a 64.3% chance to win.

Why they could be here: The Ducks continue to dismantle weaker competition, including their winless in-state rival Oregon State (0-4) on Saturday. Oregon’s place in the playoff order has nothing to do with résumé and everything to do with dominant wins. The Ducks entered the week ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s game control metric, No. 3 in points margin and No. 2 in the country with 54 points per game. Oregon is No. 1 in offensive efficiency and No. 4 in defensive efficiency, making the Ducks one of the most complete teams in the country.

Why they could be lower: Montana State is an FCS team. Oklahoma State’s program has imploded. And a win against Northwestern amounts to a shoulder shrug. The stats are inflated because of the opponents the Ducks beat.

Need to know: Oregon has the best chance in the Big Ten to make the conference championship game (55.1%) and win it (34%), according to ESPN Analytics.

Toughest remaining game: Sept. 27 at Penn State. ESPN’s FPI gives the Nittany Lions a 52% chance to win — it’s the only game on the Ducks’ schedule they’re not favored to win.

Why they could be here: The Nittany Lions had a bye this week, and wins against Nevada, Florida International and Villanova are keeping them behind contenders with better résumés. Penn State entered Week 4 ranked No. 41 in ESPN’s strength of record metric — and every team listed above is ranked in the top 20.

Why they could be lower: Penn State ranks No. 71 in the country in offensive efficiency — well below what’s typical of past playoff participants. No wins against Power 4 opponents would also hold the Nittany Lions back. Quarterback Drew Allar entered the week ranked No. 111 in QBR (38.4) and has just four touchdowns and one interception.

Need to know: Penn State hosts Oregon on Saturday in a game that will finally reveal how seriously to take the Nittany Lions. ESPN’s FPI gives Penn State a 52% chance to win. If it doesn’t, it will likely need to beat Ohio State on the road to get a chance at the Big Ten title game — and possibly a rematch with Oregon. Without a win against the Ducks OR Ohio State — and with no Big Ten title game appearance — Penn State’s best chance for a notable win would be against Indiana on Nov. 8. A 10-2 Notre Dame would arguably have a better résumé with the same record.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 1 at Ohio State. It’s the only game on the schedule for which ESPN’s FPI doesn’t favor the Nittany Lions, as Ohio State has a 64.9% chance to win.

Why they could be here: The selection committee considers how teams win — and how they lose — and the Vols have managed to do both as well as can be expected. The committee isn’t going to penalize Tennessee for its 44-41 overtime loss to Georgia, though it will keep the Vols behind the Dawgs as long as their records are comparable. And the season-opening win against Syracuse looks even better after the Orange won at Clemson on Saturday.

Why they could be lower: The Vols are still missing a true statement win, though Syracuse can be a CFP Top 25 team on Selection Day.

Need to know: The Vols’ chances of reaching the SEC title game are slim, according to ESPN Analytics, which gives Tennessee just an 8.1% chance to reach the game and a 4.4% chance to win the title. Tennessee earned a spot in the playoff last year, though, as an at-large team, and can do that again, but it can’t go 0-2 against Alabama and Oklahoma.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 18 at Alabama. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tide a 66.3% chance to win. It’s the only game on the schedule the Vols aren’t projected to win.

Why they could be here: The Hoosiers have a convincing win against a veteran Illinois team that last week was in this spot. They had dominated their previous two opponents (Kennesaw State and FCS Indiana State), but this was the first chance to show the committee a complete performance against a ranked Big Ten opponent. The Illini had won each of their first three games by at least 25 points. The committee would also highlight the strong play of IU quarterback Fernando Mendoza, who leads the Big Ten in touchdown passes. He continued that success against an Illinois defense that had allowed only two passing touchdowns in three games.

Why they could be lower: Some committee members could be more impressed with Ole Miss, which entered this week ranked No. 6 in the country in ESPN’s strength of record metric. They could also consider a bigger boost for Texas Tech, which won on the road, whereas the Hoosiers won at home. The committee would also consider the injury to Texas Tech’s starting quarterback.

Need to know: If the Hoosiers are a playoff team for the second straight season, they will have earned it with a more difficult schedule this year, as they still have to face Oregon and Penn State — both on the road. If IU doesn’t win the Big Ten title, it probably needs to at least split with those opponents to win a debate with another contender for an at-large bid.

Toughest remaining game: Oct. 11 at Oregon. ESPN’s FPI gives the Ducks an 82.3% chance to win.

Why they could be here: The win at Utah is better than anything Texas has on its résumé — and the Red Raiders got it done with their backup quarterback. With the win, Texas Tech’s chances of reaching the Big 12 title game jumped to 40%, according to ESPN Analytics. Texas Tech is also getting credit here for beating Oregon State in the same way Oregon did (the Red Raiders beat the Beavers 45-14 a week before the Ducks upended them 41-7 on Saturday). Beating a respectable Utah team, though, in the first Big 12 game for both teams helped Texas Tech enter the playoff conversation as the league’s new leading contender.

Why they could be lower: Ole Miss has had three straight wins against respectable opponents, including back-to-back wins against SEC opponents Kentucky and Arkansas earlier this month. The Rebels also have a case for moving into the committee’s top 12.

Need to know: If Texas Tech doesn’t win the Big 12, it could have trouble earning an at-large bid because it might not play another ranked opponent this season. It’s hard to imagine the committee leaving out a one-loss Big 12 runner-up, though. If the Red Raiders were to lose a close game to a ranked opponent in the league title game, they would still have a strong case for an at-large bid. If they finish as a two-loss runner-up, though, they could lose a debate for an at-large bid with another contender with a better résumé.

Toughest remaining game: Nov. 8 at BYU. ESPN’s FPI gives BYU a 51.4% chance to win. It’s the only remaining game the Red Raiders aren’t favored to win.

Bracket

Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:

First-round byes

No. 1 Miami (ACC champ)
No. 2 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Florida State

First-round games

On campus, Dec. 19 and 20

No. 12 Memphis (American champ) at No. 5 LSU
No. 11 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ) at No. 6 Texas A&M
No. 10 Tennessee at No. 7 Oklahoma
No. 9 Penn State at No. 8 Oregon

Quarterfinal games

At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.

No. 12 Memphis/No. 5 LSU winner vs. No. 4 Florida State
No. 11 Texas Tech/No. 6 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Tennessee/No. 7 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Penn State/No. 8 Oregon winner vs. No. 1 Penn State

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