China’s steel exports expected to falter in 2025 as pain from tariffs spread
JIUJIANG, CHINA – JUNE 17: A worker manufactures seamless steel gas cylinders for export at the workshop of Sinoma Science & Technology (Jiujiang) Co., Ltd. on June 17, 2024 in Jiujiang, Jiangxi Province of China.
Wei Dongsheng | Visual China Group | Getty Images
China’s steel exports will soon hit an eight-year high, before sweeping tariffs sink in and drag down the industry in 2025, industry watchers said.
As the biggest exporter of steel, China accounts for about 55% of the world’s steel production. The country’s steel exports have been surging this year and are expected to smash through the 100 million metric ton mark, matching levels last seen in 2016.
Strategists at Macquarie Capital predicted that China’s steel exports will reach 109 million tons this year, before declining to 96 million tons in 2025. Trade tariffs could further curb China’s steel exports, “albeit this may require a while to play out,” analysts from the the investment bank told CNBC.
Their predictions were echoed by analysts interviewed by Citigroup. China’s steel shipment is “skewed to the downside” from next year and onwards due anti-dumping measures, Ren Zhuqian, an analyst from steel consultancy Mysteel, said in a Citigroup note this month.
Foreign markets have been particularly crucial amid a domestic supply glut, as China’s economy grapples with a prolonged property crisis and slowdown in manufacturing activities.
In September, China’s steel exports jumped 26% from a year ago to 10.2 million tons, surpassing the 10-million ton a month benchmark that was last hit in June 2016. In the first nine months of the year, exports rose 21.2% year on year to 80.7 million tons, according to the customs data last week.
After hitting a record high of 112 million tons in 2015, the country’s steel exports had been on a multi-year slide before it started improving in 2020.
Steel export growth has accelerated ever since, propelled by a lack of domestic demand, even as overall export growth in China slowed sharply in September on the back of a series of disappointing data that pointed to a weak economy.
Anti-dumping ‘Wac-A-Mole’
Floods of cheap steel from China had sparked concern among its trading partners of unfair competition for domestic steelmakers. More and more have ramped up anti-dumping measures, including hefty tariffs.
Steel producers in importing countries have been “under massive strain,” said Chim Lee, senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, especially those in Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
Thailand expanded anti-dumping duties to 31% on hot-rolled coil, high-strength steel used for critical infrastructure construction, from China in August. Mexico imposed a nearly 80% tariff on some Chinese steel imports late last year.
This month, Brazilian government imposed 25% tariffs on all steel products from the country. And Canada’s 25% surtax on Chinese steel products, which it announced in August, came into effect on Tuesday.
These kinds of protectionism measures tend to have short-lived impacts, said Tomas Gutierrez, head of data at consultancy Kallanish Commodities, as steel exporters resort to measures such as “circumvention,” shaking off the China-label by making transits through a third-party country.
We see a ‘whac-a-mole’ scenario: when one country starts to limit steel imports from China, Chinese steel producers are likely to redirect them to another country until that market, too, imposes new trade restrictions.
Chim Lee
Senior analyst, Economist Intelligence Unit
But Vietnam’s ongoing anti-dumping probe into hot-rolled coil could derail China’s export momentum as it “impacts a much higher volume of Chinese steel,” Gutierrez said.
Vietnam is a major importer of Chinese steel, consuming about 10% of the country’s steel exports in 2023, according to a Mysteel report. Other top destination markets include Thailand, India and Brazil.
Last month, Indian government ordered tariffs of between 12% and 30% on some steel products imported from China and Vietnam, escalating an anti-dumping duty it imposed on Chinese steels last year.
“We see a Whac-A-Mole scenario,” EIU’s Chim said. The tariffs lead Chinese steel producers to redirect to alternative markets, “until that market, too, imposes new trade restrictions.”
U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration called for tripling tariffs on Chinese steel in April, and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump said he could raise tariffs by 60% on Chinese goods if re-elected next month.
But the impact of these threats from Washington would be rather limited, as less than 1 percent of Chinese steel exports, worth $85 billion, were shipped to the U.S. in 2023.
Dwindling demand
For the first time in six years, the World Steel Association this month forecast that China’s domestic steel demand this year would account for less than half of global demand, citing “the ongoing downturn” in the country’s real estate sector.
China’s property-related steel demand may not see a substantial improvement until 2025 or 2026, EIU’s Chim said, as Beijing seeks to curb new housing supplies while clearing existing housing inventories.
New construction starts, the most steel intensive part of the property construction process, will continue to be very weak, Chim said.
Meanwhile, he added, state-led infrastructure investment, which has increasingly pivoted away from roads and railways to energy infrastructure, is unlikely to fill the gap left by home builders.
More domestic steelmakers had scaled back production given poor profitability on steel sales. Almost three-quarters of Chinese steel companies reported losses in the first six months this year, with many at risks of bankruptcy.
China’s production of medium-thick hot-rolled coil — a proxy of flat steel products — fell 5.4% from the prior month in September, and 6.4% on year, according to S&P Global, which cited official customs data.
On escalating trade tensions, a spokesperson for China’s customs administration said a majority of Chinese steel products were to meet domestic demand, before receding that the hard-rolled coils “would have broad appeal in overseas market,” due to continuous innovation and product upgrades in the industry.
A possible tax crackdown
Beijing’s possible crackdown on value-added tax could make matters worse for China’s steel industry.
This year, steel mills have been under pressure from regulators over allegations that they skirted taxes to make exports even cheaper.
Authorities had set up an investigative team to crack down on these “illegal” steel exports, Luo Tiejun, vice president of the state-backed Iron and Steel Industry Association, said in a meeting last week.
“If China really followed through [with the investigation], Chinese exports would be much less competitive and export volumes could come down,” Gutierrez said. But the government may not have the “confidence” for that yet.
Sustainable construction experts McKinstry have teamed up with leading BESS developers Viridi and the Denver Public Library to deploy a first-of-its-kind solar and battery storage system that sets a new standard for fire safety.
The Denver Public Library sought a battery energy storage system (BESS) that could deliver cost savings without compromising safety for staff, visitors, or the architecturally significant, Michael Graves–designed structure itself. That required a battery backup solution that not only met the city’s fire safety standards, but also addressed public fears about the risk of lithium-ion battery fires.
That unique set of project priorities led the library to Viridi, makers of the RPSLinkEX battery solution that’s equipped with a unique, “passive Fail-Safe thermal management and anti-propagation technology” designed to prevent the sort of thermal runaway that leads to li-ion battery fires.
“Public facilities like the Denver Public Library are at the forefront of demonstrating that energy resilience and safety can go hand in hand,” said Jon M. Williams, CEO at Viridi. “This installation highlights how fail-safe battery storage can empower communities to maximize renewable energy, reduce costs, and maintain reliability – all without compromise.”
Keeping it safe
Viridi doesn’t talk too much about how its passive Fail-Safe thermal management system works, but if you’re picturing heat-dissipating layers, fire-resistant insulation, and strategically-placed phase change materials (or PCMs) limiting the transfer of heat from one cell to another if it begins to overheat, you’ve probably cracked it.
These passive safety features enable safer deployment scenarios in occupied buildings or near critical infrastructure by reducing dependence on active fire suppression systems like sprinklers or fire extinguishers, and convinced the City of Denver to move forward with the project, which is the city’s first-ever solar + battery storage system.
“The entire McKinstry team is very excited about developing and constructing the first Solar + BESS project for the City and County of Denver,” said Jon Ensley, Sr. Construction Project Engineer at McKinstry. “We are appreciative of all our partners and stakeholders who helped to achieve this goal. We value Viridi’s expertise in deploying this technology and the whole team has been great to work with.”
McKinstry says this latest solar project sets, “a new benchmark for how cities can combine renewable energy and battery storage without compromising safety.” And, with solutions like the RPSLinkEX building systems that meet city planners and politicians where they are, instead of trying to educated them about the objective, proven safety of li-ion batteries, Viridi is helping communities adopt cleaner, more resilient clean energy solutions sooner rather than later.
READ MORE
SOURCE | IMAGES: Viridi, via PV Magazine; Michael Graves.
If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
China’s Dongfang Electric has installed a 26-megawatt offshore wind turbine, snatching the title of world’s most powerful from Siemens Gamesa’s 21.5 turbine in Denmark.
The Chinese state-owned manufacturer announced today that it has installed the world’s most powerful wind turbine prototype at a testing and certification base. This turbine, the world’s largest for capacity and size, boasts a blade wheel diameter of more than 310 meters (1,107 feet) and a hub height of 185 meters (607 feet). Dongfang shipped the turbine’s nacelle earlier this month – the world’s heaviest – along with three blades.
This offshore wind turbine is designed for areas with wind speeds of 8 meters per second and above. With average winds of 10 meters per second, just one of these giants can generate 100 GWh of power annually, which is enough to power 55,000 homes. That’s enough to cut standard coal consumption by 30,000 tons and reduce CO2 emissions by 80,000 tons. Dongfang says it’s wind resistant up to 17 (200 km/h) on the extended Beaufort scale.
In May, Dongfang said it had completed static load testing on the turbine’s blades, and the turbine is now undergoing fatigue testing, which could take up to a year before the turbine is fully certified.
Read more: Trump just killed all offshore wind zones as US power needs surge
The 30% federal solar tax credit is ending this year. If you’ve ever considered going solar, now’s the time to act. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
The autonomous ag equipment experts behind the GUSS robotic sprayers have been developing their AI tech as part of a JV with John Deere for years — and now, that marriage is official. John Deere has acquired 100% of GUSS, and has big plans to pick up that tech and run with it like a … well, you know.
The latest battery-powered GUSS autonomous sprayer made its debut at the 2024 World Ag Expo show in Tulare, California, last summer, where executives from Deere called it, “the world’s first and only fully electric autonomous herbicide orchard sprayer.”
Since then, interest in automated ag equipment has only grown — fueled not just by rising demand for affordable food and produce, but by a national labor shortage made worse by the Trump Administration’s tough anti-immigration policies as well. It’s specifically those challenges around labor availability, input costs, and crop protection that GUSS and John Deere have been spending millions to address.
“Fully integrating GUSS into the John Deere portfolio is a continuation of our dedication to serving high-value crop customers with advanced, scalable technologies to help them do more with less,” explains Julien Le Vely, director, Production Systems, High Value & Small Acre Crops, at John Deere. “GUSS brings a proven solution to a fast-growing segment of agriculture, and its team has a deep understanding of customer needs in orchards and vineyards. We’re excited to have them fully part of the John Deere team.”
About GUSS
The GUSS electric sprayer is powered by a Kreisel Battery Pack 63 (KBP63), which has a nominal energy capacity of 63 kWh, enabling the machine to operate for 10-12 continuous hours between overnight (L2) charges.
The GUSS electric sprayers feature the Smart Apply weed detection system that measures chlorophyll in the various plants it encounters, identifying weeds embedded among the crops, and only sprays where weeds are detected. The company claims its weed detecting tech significantly reduces the amount of chemicals being sprayed onto farmers’ crops, resulting in “up to 90% savings” in sprayed material.
John Deere’s deep pockets will support GUSS as it continues to expand its global reach, and help the group to accelerate Smart Apply’s innovation and integration with other John Deere precision agriculture technologies.
“Joining John Deere enables us to tap into their unmatched innovative capabilities in precision agriculture technologies to bring our solutions to more growers around the world,” says Gary Thompson, GUSS’ COO. “Our team is passionate about helping high-value crop growers increase their efficiency and productivity in their operations, and together with John Deere, we will have the ability to have an even greater impact.”
GUSS-brand autonomous sprayers will be sold and serviced exclusively through John Deere dealers, and the GUSS business will retain its name, branding, employees, and independent manufacturing facility in Kingsburg, California.
More than 250 GUSS machines have been deployed globally, having sprayed more than 2.6 million acres over 500,000 autonomous hours of operation.
Electrek’s Take
Population growth, while slowing, is still very much a thing – and fewer and fewer people seem to be willing to do the work of growing the food that more and more people need to eat and live. This autonomous tech multiplies the efforts of the farmers that do show up for work every day, and the fact that it’s more sustainable from both a fuel perspective and a toxic chemical perspective makes GUSS a winner.
SOURCE I IMAGES: John Deere.
If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
FTC: We use income earning auto affiliate links. More.
-
Sports3 years ago‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series
-
Sports1 year agoStory injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game
-
Sports2 years agoGame 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history
-
Sports2 years agoMLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players
-
Sports4 years ago
Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup
-
Sports2 years agoButton battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut
-
Environment2 years agoJapan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea
-
Environment11 months agoHere are the best electric bikes you can buy at every price level in October 2024