China’s steel exports expected to falter in 2025 as pain from tariffs spread
JIUJIANG, CHINA – JUNE 17: A worker manufactures seamless steel gas cylinders for export at the workshop of Sinoma Science & Technology (Jiujiang) Co., Ltd. on June 17, 2024 in Jiujiang, Jiangxi Province of China.
Wei Dongsheng | Visual China Group | Getty Images
China’s steel exports will soon hit an eight-year high, before sweeping tariffs sink in and drag down the industry in 2025, industry watchers said.
As the biggest exporter of steel, China accounts for about 55% of the world’s steel production. The country’s steel exports have been surging this year and are expected to smash through the 100 million metric ton mark, matching levels last seen in 2016.
Strategists at Macquarie Capital predicted that China’s steel exports will reach 109 million tons this year, before declining to 96 million tons in 2025. Trade tariffs could further curb China’s steel exports, “albeit this may require a while to play out,” analysts from the the investment bank told CNBC.
Their predictions were echoed by analysts interviewed by Citigroup. China’s steel shipment is “skewed to the downside” from next year and onwards due anti-dumping measures, Ren Zhuqian, an analyst from steel consultancy Mysteel, said in a Citigroup note this month.
Foreign markets have been particularly crucial amid a domestic supply glut, as China’s economy grapples with a prolonged property crisis and slowdown in manufacturing activities.
In September, China’s steel exports jumped 26% from a year ago to 10.2 million tons, surpassing the 10-million ton a month benchmark that was last hit in June 2016. In the first nine months of the year, exports rose 21.2% year on year to 80.7 million tons, according to the customs data last week.
After hitting a record high of 112 million tons in 2015, the country’s steel exports had been on a multi-year slide before it started improving in 2020.
Steel export growth has accelerated ever since, propelled by a lack of domestic demand, even as overall export growth in China slowed sharply in September on the back of a series of disappointing data that pointed to a weak economy.
Anti-dumping ‘Wac-A-Mole’
Floods of cheap steel from China had sparked concern among its trading partners of unfair competition for domestic steelmakers. More and more have ramped up anti-dumping measures, including hefty tariffs.
Steel producers in importing countries have been “under massive strain,” said Chim Lee, senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, especially those in Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
Thailand expanded anti-dumping duties to 31% on hot-rolled coil, high-strength steel used for critical infrastructure construction, from China in August. Mexico imposed a nearly 80% tariff on some Chinese steel imports late last year.
This month, Brazilian government imposed 25% tariffs on all steel products from the country. And Canada’s 25% surtax on Chinese steel products, which it announced in August, came into effect on Tuesday.
These kinds of protectionism measures tend to have short-lived impacts, said Tomas Gutierrez, head of data at consultancy Kallanish Commodities, as steel exporters resort to measures such as “circumvention,” shaking off the China-label by making transits through a third-party country.
We see a ‘whac-a-mole’ scenario: when one country starts to limit steel imports from China, Chinese steel producers are likely to redirect them to another country until that market, too, imposes new trade restrictions.
Chim Lee
Senior analyst, Economist Intelligence Unit
But Vietnam’s ongoing anti-dumping probe into hot-rolled coil could derail China’s export momentum as it “impacts a much higher volume of Chinese steel,” Gutierrez said.
Vietnam is a major importer of Chinese steel, consuming about 10% of the country’s steel exports in 2023, according to a Mysteel report. Other top destination markets include Thailand, India and Brazil.
Last month, Indian government ordered tariffs of between 12% and 30% on some steel products imported from China and Vietnam, escalating an anti-dumping duty it imposed on Chinese steels last year.
“We see a Whac-A-Mole scenario,” EIU’s Chim said. The tariffs lead Chinese steel producers to redirect to alternative markets, “until that market, too, imposes new trade restrictions.”
U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration called for tripling tariffs on Chinese steel in April, and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump said he could raise tariffs by 60% on Chinese goods if re-elected next month.
But the impact of these threats from Washington would be rather limited, as less than 1 percent of Chinese steel exports, worth $85 billion, were shipped to the U.S. in 2023.
Dwindling demand
For the first time in six years, the World Steel Association this month forecast that China’s domestic steel demand this year would account for less than half of global demand, citing “the ongoing downturn” in the country’s real estate sector.
China’s property-related steel demand may not see a substantial improvement until 2025 or 2026, EIU’s Chim said, as Beijing seeks to curb new housing supplies while clearing existing housing inventories.
New construction starts, the most steel intensive part of the property construction process, will continue to be very weak, Chim said.
Meanwhile, he added, state-led infrastructure investment, which has increasingly pivoted away from roads and railways to energy infrastructure, is unlikely to fill the gap left by home builders.
More domestic steelmakers had scaled back production given poor profitability on steel sales. Almost three-quarters of Chinese steel companies reported losses in the first six months this year, with many at risks of bankruptcy.
China’s production of medium-thick hot-rolled coil — a proxy of flat steel products — fell 5.4% from the prior month in September, and 6.4% on year, according to S&P Global, which cited official customs data.
On escalating trade tensions, a spokesperson for China’s customs administration said a majority of Chinese steel products were to meet domestic demand, before receding that the hard-rolled coils “would have broad appeal in overseas market,” due to continuous innovation and product upgrades in the industry.
A possible tax crackdown
Beijing’s possible crackdown on value-added tax could make matters worse for China’s steel industry.
This year, steel mills have been under pressure from regulators over allegations that they skirted taxes to make exports even cheaper.
Authorities had set up an investigative team to crack down on these “illegal” steel exports, Luo Tiejun, vice president of the state-backed Iron and Steel Industry Association, said in a meeting last week.
“If China really followed through [with the investigation], Chinese exports would be much less competitive and export volumes could come down,” Gutierrez said. But the government may not have the “confidence” for that yet.
Mazda’s new electric SUV, the EZ-60, set a record in China after securing over 20,000 orders. It is about the size of a Tesla Model Y and will soon launch in overseas markets like Europe.
Meet Mazda’s new EZ-60 electric SUV
Mazda calls it a “dream car” with a sleek new design, class-leading features, and advanced smart driving technology.
The EZ60 is Changan Mazda’s, the company’s joint venture in China, first electric SUV and second EV following the EZ-6 sedan.
After securing over 20,000 orders, Changan Mazda announced the EZ-60 set a new record as the fastest joint venture new energy SUV to reach the milestone.
Mazda’s new electric SUV received 10,060 orders in 24 hours after it opened following its global debut at the Shanghai Auto Show on April 23. On May 9, Changan Mazda said EZ-60 orders exceeded 18,000, also setting a record for joint venture electric SUVs.
Like the EZ-6 sedan, Mazda’s electric SUV features its new “Soul of Motion” design, including a redesigned logo, slim LED headlights, and an LED lightbar that stretches across the front.
It comes loaded with “a number of world-first technologies,” including a 100″ naked-eye 3D head-up display (HUD) and a 26.45″ floating infotainment, which the company claims is “the largest size, thinnest body, and narrowest frame in its class.”
The unique D-pillar air duct gives it “the million-level supercar design” while improving airflow and efficiency. With nine air ducts and sixteen vents, the company said overall wind resistance is improved by 60.8 counts.
Launching globally
The EZ-60 is available in purely battery electric (EV) and extended-range electric vehicle (EREV) powertrain options.
Mazda’s new electric SUV will officially launch by the end of August. Following the EZ-6, which will go by “6e” overseas, the EZ-60 will be Changan Mazda’s second EV to launch globally.
Based on Changan’s EPA1 platform, which underpins the Deepal SO7, the electric SUV is expected to have a driving range of around 600 km. Prices and full specs will be revealed closer to launch. Check back soon for more info. We’ll keep you updated with the latest.
Mazda’s electric SUV is 4,850 mm long, 1,935 mm wide, and 1,620 mm tall, or about the same size as the new Tesla Model Y (4,797 mm long, 1,920 mm wide, and 1,624 mm tall).
The EZ-6 starts at 139,800 yuan in China, or about $20,000, and has a CLTC driving range of up to 600 km (372 miles). Changan Mazda introduced a new Sport Edition earlier this month, with black side skirts and wheels, red brake callipers, and a few other upgrades.
In Europe, the electric sedan will arrive as the Mazda 6e. It will be available with two battery packs: 68.8 kWh or 80 kWh, good for WLTP driving range of 479 km (300 miles) and 552 km (343 miles), respectively.
What do you think of Mazda’s new electric SUV? Would you buy one in the US, Europe, or other global markets? Let us know your thoughts below.
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Lexus may have just given you a reason to check out its electric SUV. The Lexus RZ is getting some notable upgrades for the 2026 model year, including up to 300 miles of driving range, an NACS port for charging at Tesla Superchargers, and plenty more.
2026 Lexus RZ makes North American debut
After introducing the upgraded electric SUV in Europe earlier this year, we are finally getting a look at the new electric SUV coming to the US.
The 2026 Lexus RZ made its North American debut this week with more power, added range, and several new features.
For one, a new F Sport variant arrives with a sporty new style inside and out. The 2026 RZ 550e F Sport is the most powerful RZ model yet. With a 402 hp AWD powertrain, the sporty new variant can sprint from 0 to 60 mph in 4.1 seconds.
It also gains a new “M Mode” that features virtual manual gear shifting to make it feel like a manual transmission.
The new F-Sport model gets exclusive elements like F Sport branding on the rear spoiler, front and rear bumpers, and front grille. It will be available in a new “Wind” color, a solid gray with “subtle metallic highlight.”
All 2026 Lexus RZ models get a redesigned interior with an improved panorama glass roof, which provides more shade and a clearer view. The F Sport interior has black Ultrasuede material with blue stitching available. Other upgrades include F Sport scuff plates, steering wheel, and pedals.
The 2026 model will be available in three different trims: RZ 350e FWD (221 hp), RZ 450e AWD (308 hp), and RZ 55e F-Sport AWD (402 hp).
Lexus also added an NACS charging port on the passenger side, enabling access to Tesla Superchargers across North America.
| 2026 Lexus RZ model | Output | 0 to 60 mph Acceleration | Battery | Range |
| RZ 350e FWD | 221 hp | 7.2 sec | 74.69 kWh | 300 miles |
| RZ 450e AWD | 308 hp | 4.9 sec | 74.69 kWh | 260 miles (18″ tires) |
| RZ 550e F Sport AWD | 402 hp | 4.1 sec | 76.96 kWh | 225 miles (20″ tires) |
The 2026 Lexus RZ 350e now features an EPA-estimated driving range of around 300 miles, a big improvement from the 266 miles for the outgoing model. Other models, including the RZ 450e and RZ 550e, deliver up to 260 miles and 225 miles of driving range, respectively.
All 2026 Lexus RZ models will be assembled in Japan. Lexus will reveal full details, including specs and pricing, closer to when it goes on sale later this year. Check back soon for the latest.
With the 2026 model year arriving, Lexus is offering generous discounts on the 2025 RZ with up to $10,000 in bonus cash and leases starting as low as $379 per month. You can use our link to find deals on 2025 Lexus RZ models at a dealer near you today.
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Environment
Zoox expands testing fleet to seventh US city, hopes to bring robotaxis to ‘Silicon Valley of the South’
Veteran robotaxi developer Zoox has announced an expansion of its testing fleet to a seventh US market. This latest addition marks Zoox’s (potential) entry into the southeastern United States as its team begins to map out the area ahead of bona fide autonomous robotaxi rides.
Rather than converting existing EVs into robotaxis like its competitors, Zoox has designed and delivered an entirely purpose-built EV without pedals or a steering wheel. However, that rollout has been relatively small compared to Zoox’s entire US operation, much of which remains in the testing phase.
Those testing vehicles are retrofitted SUVs equipped with LiDAR and other sensors, plus a human driver operating inside.
In June 2023, the company began driving on public roads in Las Vegas before expanding its Las Vegas geofence to a five-mile route in 2024. Since then, Zoox has not offered public rides in its bespoke robotaxis. However, Zoox has significantly expanded its North American testing fleet into additional cities, hoping to eventually reach that milestone.
Those cities include the San Francisco Bay Area, Las Vegas, Seattle, Miami, Austin, and most recently, Los Angeles. Today, Zoox announced testing has expanded to a seventh city – Atlanta.
Zoox begins testing roadmaps around Atlanta, Georgia
Zoox issued a press release today detailing its latest market and reiterating that it is merely laying the groundwork for purpose-built robotaxi rides in the future. Per Zoox:
Known as the ‘Silicon Valley of the South,’ Atlanta is one of the largest ride-hailing markets in the United States. As one of the fastest-growing technology hubs, the city welcomes autonomous vehicle testing and innovation in many fields.
Atlanta also has a growing population, diverse road conditions, traffic patterns, and unique weather conditions, including frequent thunderstorms. The city is located in a dense, urban landscape, which creates a strong demand for efficient transportation solutions like on-demand autonomous ride-hailing.
As it has already in the six other markets mentioned above, Zoox said it will begin with a small deployment of testing vehicles, driven around manually by its employees to gather mapping data, including road geometry and traffic lights.
Once Atlanta is entirely mapped out manually, Zoox plans to begin testing its autonomous driving technology before expanding to public rides. Per Zoox:
We see promise in bringing our robotaxi service to Atlanta in the future, and we look forward to offering Atlantans this unique and private space to socialize, rock out, or relax while being transported to their destination. Give us a wave when you spot us on the road, and keep your eyes out for when we roll out the robotaxi in the not-too-distant future.
Before we see commercial operations in Atlanta, Zoox plans to begin welcoming public riders into its proprietary robotaxi vehicles in Las Vegas and San Francisco later this year.
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