Government spending plans not enough to stop falling public investment

Published

4 weeks ago

October 25, 2024

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The chancellor will need to spend an extra £20bn by the end of the parliament to maintain public investment at its present levels.

Rachel Reeves has promised to unveil a “budget for investment” next week, while reversing the “years of underinvestment” overseen by the previous Conservative government.

However, this would involve taking on billions of pounds of fresh debt if, as is widely expected, the government chooses to borrow more to invest.

Under plans inherited by the previous government, public investment as a share of national income (excluding student loans) was due to hit 2.1% of GDP at the end of this financial year before falling sharply during the rest of the parliament.

In its manifesto, Labour outlined an extra £5bn of investment plans.

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However, this is not sufficient to reverse the downward trend and would see public investment as a share of GDP settle at 1.6% by the end of the parliament.

Earlier this month, the government also pledged an additional £22bn for carbon capture but said it would be delivered over a 25-year timeline, so it has not been included in the analysis.

In order to maintain public investment as a share of national income at its 25-year average of 1.7% of GDP, the government would have to borrow an extra £10bn.

It would involve an additional £20bn to maintain it at its present levels (2.1% of GDP), according to economists at the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS).

What counts as investment?

Government investment can be wide-ranging.

It includes building new schools, buying new NHS equipment and spending on building new roads and railways. Britain has a shaky track record when it comes to delivering these types of projects.

Low comparative investment

Analysis by the Institute for Public Policy Research (IPPR) thinktank shows that public investment in the UK remains below average within the G7 club of advanced economies public investment.

Dr George Dibb, associate director at IPPR, said: “The UK has had chronically low levels of public investment since the 1970s, this has left us with crumbling infrastructure, out-of-date technology in our public services and undermined the foundations of our economy.

“Compared to other G7 economies we’ve never even been average.”

“Rachel Reeves has the chance to turn this around, however she needs to grapple with severe cuts to public investment locked in by the previous government,” he added.

The picture is even worse when business investment is included in the analysis – Britain languishes at the bottom of the table.

The chancellor said she is prepared to borrow more to fund this type of investment spending, something she believes is a critical part of her mission to deliver more economic growth.

In her conference speech in September, she said: “We find ourselves at the very bottom of the G7 league table for economy-wide investment as a share of our GDP. And we must change that.”

Reeves tweaked her self-imposed fiscal rules – which required debt to be falling as a share of GDP by the fifth year of the parliament – in order to manage this extra borrowing.

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How to invest more

Economists have long argued that the current system prevents governments from making long-term investments that could grow the economy.

Ms Reeves is expected to use a new measure of debt, “public sector net financial liabilities”.

This is a wider measure of the state balance sheet which takes into account the government’s assets – such as hospitals, schools and its student loan book – as well as its liabilities and effectively creates more room for borrowing by reclassifying some debt as assets.

This gives a broader view of the government’s fiscal position and could unlock more than £50bn in additional headroom, giving the chancellor sufficient space to overturn the downward trend in public investment.

However, this change would not impact the government’s ability to service its debt and economists have warned the chancellor against using up all of that extra headroom in case it triggers a perverse reaction in the bond markets.

With public sector net debt at its highest level relative to GDP since the early 1960s, the IFS said that such a move could trigger a buyer’s strike in the bond markets.

Business

Water companies blocked from using customer cash for ‘undeserved’ bonuses

Published

58 mins ago

November 21, 2024

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Water companies blocked from using customer cash for 'undeserved' bonuses

Nine water companies have been blocked from using customer money to fund “undeserved” bonuses by the industry’s regulator.

Ofwat said it had stepped in to use its new powers over water firms that cannot show that bonuses are sufficiently linked to performance.

The blocked payouts amount to 73% of the total executive awards proposed across the industry.

The regulator has prevented crisis-hit Thames Water, Yorkshire Water, and Dwr Cymru Welsh Water from paying £1.5m in bonuses from cash generated from customer bills.

It said a further six firms have voluntarily decided not to push the cost of executive bonuses worth a combined £5.2m on to customers.

Instead, shareholders at Anglian Water, Severn Trent, South West, Southern Water, United Utilities and Wessex will pay the cost.

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David Black, chief executive of Ofwat, said: “In stopping customers from paying for undeserved bonuses that do not properly reflect performance, we are looking to sharpen executive mindsets and push companies to improve their performance and culture of accountability.

“While we are starting to see companies take some positive steps, they need to do more to rebuild public trust.”

The announcement came in an Ofwat update on firms’ financial resilience and bonuses.

Industry lobby group Water UK said: “Almost all water company bonuses are already paid by shareholders, not customers.

“All companies recognise the need to do more to deliver on their plans to support economic growth, build more homes, secure our water supplies and end sewage entering our rivers.

“We now need the regulator Ofwat to fully approve water companies’ £108bn investment plans so that we can get on with it.

“Ofwat’s financial resilience report provides yet more evidence that the current system isn’t working, with returns down to 2% and eight companies making a loss.

“It is clear we need a faster and simpler system which allows companies to deliver for customers, the environment and the country.”

Business

Google could be forced to sell its Chrome browser over internet search monopoly claims

Published

58 mins ago

November 21, 2024

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Google must sell its Chrome browser to restore competition in the online search market, US prosecutors have argued.

The proposed breakup has been floated in a 23-page document filed by the US Justice Department.

It also calls for lawmakers to impose restrictions designed to prevent its Android smartphone software from favouring its own search engine.

If the rules were brought in, it would essentially result in Google being highly regulated for 10 years.

Google controls about 90% of the online search market and 95% on smartphones.

Court papers filed on Wednesday expand on an earlier outline for what prosecutors argued would dilute that monopoly.

Google called the proposals radical at the time, saying they would harm US consumers and businesses and shake American competitiveness in AI.

The company has said it will appeal.

The US Department of Justice (DoJ) and a coalition of states want US District Judge Amit Mehta to end exclusive agreements in which Google pays billions of dollars annually to Apple and other device vendors to be the default search engine on their tablets and smartphones.

Google will have a chance to present its own proposals in December.

A trial on the proposals has been set for April, however President-elect Donald Trump and the DoJ’s next antitrust head could step in.

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Dozens of partners take early retirement from accountancy giant PwC

Published

2 hours ago

November 21, 2024

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Dozens of partners take early retirement from accountancy giant PwC

Dozens of partners at PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), Britain’s biggest accountancy firm, will next month take early retirement as its new boss takes steps to boost its performance.

Sky News has learnt that PwC’s 1,030 UK partners were notified earlier this week that a larger-than-usual round of partner retirements would take place at the end of the year.

Sources said the round would involve several dozen partners – who command average pay packages of about £1m – leaving the firm.

PwC named about 60 new partners earlier this year under Marco Amitrano, who was appointed as its new UK boss in the spring.

Mr Amitrano is understood to have informed partners about the changes in a voice memo, although one insider disputed the idea that the numbers involved were “significant”.

The partner retirements come as the big four audit firms contend with a sizeable bill from increases in the Budget in employers’ national insurance contributions.

It emerged this week that Deloitte is cutting nearly 200 jobs in its advisory business, according to the Financial Times.

An ongoing shake-up of the audit profession is not being restricted to the big four firms, with Sky News revealing on Wednesday that Cinven, the private equity firm, was in advanced talks to buy a controlling stake in Grant Thornton UK.

The deal, which is expected to value Grant Thornton at somewhere in the region of £1.5bn, was announced on Thursday morning.