With Eli Drinkwitz at the helm, Missouri begins to see itself differently

Published

8 months ago

October 25, 2024

admin

EYEWEAR USED TO be a kind of prison until glasses became cool. Around the time jocks who never needed prescriptions began flaunting designer frames as a declaration of style. Which was long after Eli Drinkwitz had been memorialized in pictures from his adolescence, dorked-out in big, round lenses he inherited from his older brother, Jeremy. The head football coach of the Missouri Tigers has been the victim of lousy vision his whole life, and in his early 40s now seems the kind of glasses-wearer who forsakes image in favor of comfort. His current pair being a good example: soft rectangular lenses with practically invisible frames.

Only it turns out that Drink doesn’t like his glasses at all. He doesn’t like how they make him look on the field. He doesn’t like how they make him look in the locker room. He doesn’t like that they feed into a perception straight out of the 1950s that people think he’s a nerd. Even though he has described himself publicly as “a 5-10 dorky white dude” and, in his first year, when the Tigers upset LSU, said aloud, “Let’s be honest, I have no business being a head coach.” Within him seems to be a more ambitious evaluation of himself and what he can achieve, that he can actually take Mizzou somewhere it has never been before in football: to an SEC championship or — also his words — to the College Football Playoff. And maybe his glasses muddle in his appearance the sort of aggression such winning seems to demand.

I LIKE THE guy. When he was introduced nearly five years ago and made his first public appearance with his wife and four daughters at the ceremony in Columbia, Marching Mizzou played the fight song to lead him through a shroud of fake smoke and he walked onto Faurot Field swiveling his head to look around. He stepped in front of the microphone and pulled a visor over his eyes and then took off his glasses, in a little preview of how he would curate his appearance on the sideline. Then he set them onto the podium for a minute before putting them back on so he could see the pages of a prepared speech. He said, “For me, this is the opportunity of a lifetime.” He mentioned Gary Pinkel, Mizzou’s most successful modern coach, who was in the audience. Drink was in such stark physical contrast to him and every other Missouri coach who came before that I — someone who never played football but has worn glasses since kindergarten — told my friends I could get behind what he was doing, before he said a word.

There was some of that outward self-deprecation mingled with the confidence to employ it. He purposefully pronounced the correct “Missour-ee” and then said “MizzurUH,” too, as a nod to the people like my dad who had grown up in the Show Me State yet mispronounced it his entire life. He had not only the semblance of a personality but also a kind of panache (the nickname of Faurot Field is The Zou, and he joked that going anywhere around Columbia with four young daughters, people would get to see the real zoo). He giggled when he slipped up in saying he wanted to “win the Sun Belt … uhh, sorry, the SEC East!” But his elocution was that of someone with an easy way about himself. He barely had a track record as a head coach, but he was 12-1 the previous year at Appalachian State, including wins at South Carolina and North Carolina.

As a Mizzou graduate and native of the Bootheel, I was fascinated by this person, this seemingly new type of coach for a program in need of a risk. And that was before he made fun of Kansas and Arkansas. Before he made fun of Dan Mullen by pulling his hoodie over his head and a light saber from behind the lectern after Mizzou beat the Gators and he said, “May the force be with you” and then took a sip of Diet Coke like a mic drop. That was before Mizzou went 11-2 last season and beat Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl and Drinkwitz became the unapologetic driver of a black-and-gold Maybach with rims.

Last August, the X account CFBTalkDaily asked college football fans to reply to a post with “One word to describe Eli Drinkwitz.” The picture they used showed Drink on the field in the middle of action, staring from under his visor. Some answers: Coach. Aura. Mid. Dork. Leader! Savior. King. Dork but we LOVE him in CoMo, it’s just part of his charm! Different. Smart. Strange.

Drink’s Tigers are 6-1 and wobble at 21 in the AP poll. Early this season the offense has struggled — it was supposed to be one of the best in the SEC, with veteran quarterback Brady Cook throwing to Luther Burden III, touted as one of the top players in college football after catching 86 passes for 1,212 yards and nine touchdowns last season. But then Boston College gave them a scare at home and Vanderbilt took them to OT, and they were defenestrated at Texas A&M, which cost Mizzou dearly in the respect department. The Vanderbilt win certainly looks better now than it did at the time, of course. The Commodores took down Alabama, who lost again last weekend to Tennessee. But the Tide remain firm in the sporting consciousness as a juggernaut, and juggernauts tend to get the benefit of the doubt. If Missouri is to beat them, Burden, who has yet to live up to those lofty expectations (partly because Mizzou has trouble getting him the ball), will have to come alive. Missouri’s defense looks good in statistical departments — ninth in the country in yards allowed and top 10 in both pass and scoring defense — but has given up a bunch of broken and big plays such as a 75-yard TD run to Texas A&M’s Le’Veon Moss that opened the third quarter and essentially buried the game at 31-0. The defense will have to have the type of game it played against Murray State and Buffalo to start the season.

Drink tells me he remembers unfondly when glasses used to be considered a weakness. “That was tough, growing up,” he says. “Those were some bad glasses. I guess I thought they were cool.” A literal magnification of his shortcomings when he was a teenager in west Arkansas, a diminutive linebacker playing football for a team that won two state championships at Alma High School in a town with a population smaller than its 6,200-seat stadium. When the Drinkwitz family crammed itself — two parents and six kids — into a doublewide trailer. When his haircut was doing him no favors, either.

“I think what Coach Drink represents, man, is that you can be who you are,” says Mizzou assistant head coach and cornerbacks coach Al Pogue, who has known Drink since they were in their 20s and in quality control at Auburn under offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn. “And if that person is lighthearted and [can] still be successful? He represents that. It’s OK to be who you are.” He is referring to instances when Drink leads off a team meeting with a dad joke. Or burbles, “That’s what she said” after an innocuous comment in the hallway because he can’t seem to help himself. When he hosts a get-together for coaches every Wednesday night over the fire pit in his backyard over Wendy’s hamburgers as part of a communion. When he tells coaches to come in later if they need to take their kids to school. “That’s something I had to learn. I thought I had to look mean. I thought I had to stand on the sideline always looking like I was angry. But I wasn’t really that person,” Pogue says. “If everyone says, ‘Hey, he is a nerd’ … well, that’s a guy who I want to be like.”

DRINK TAKES HIS glasses off before football games. Everyone calls him Drink, or Coach Drink; it’s what he seems to prefer. When the meetings and preparations end and there is no turning back before kickoff, he suctions contacts onto his eyeballs and stands before his coaches and players. As a head coach who never played college football (though he was class president at Arkansas Tech) he has been subject to scrutiny — if, for example, he doesn’t call a timeout and gets a delay penalty that backs his team up 5 yards against Kansas State at the end of the game, or gets blasted so badly at Texas A&M that it doesn’t even seem he was prepared.

It’s fairly easy to understand why one of the youngest Division I head coaches of an ascending team in the greatest football conference might project himself at his best, at his strongest, at his most commanding, by subtracting a perception of his vulnerability.

Drink has done a lot of celebrating at Missouri without his glasses. His most viral speeches about brotherhood and rallying cries and buzzwords such as “STP: something to prove” have been summoned with the team crowded around him, without the specs. He conducts his postgame news conferences without them. He knelt without them and rolled over onto his back in his droopy white T-shirt and chinos and flapped his arms and legs after Mizzou — with a smothering effort from a defense that lost five starters to the NFL and a huge pass from Cook to Burden in the fourth quarter, beat Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl — and he made angels out of the confetti on the fake green heaven of Jerry Jones’ field.

He goes back to them Sunday morning. For church or breakfast at Cafe Berlin in Columbia with his family, when a new week of football begins. When he is back on the fourth floor of the Mizzou South End Zone complex before anyone else arrives in the morning, with a life-size cardboard cutout of him taking a drink of Diet Coke in the hall, and “SOMETHING TO PROVE” written in gigantic letters down the hallway wall, taking out of his personalized Coach Drink mini-fridge his first of eight or nine 16-ounce Diet Coke bottles for the day.

“I tell people all the time, ‘Don’t let the glasses fool you,'” he says. “I think sometimes, for me, I’m perceived either more nerdy than I really am, or maybe not as masculine. And I think I’m just trying to make sure when I’m out there proving a point, I want people to really understand me, you know? It’s kinda like Superman. He had to take his glasses off to get after people.”

HE’S WEARING THEM in the evening. He sidles down the stairwell from the private room of donors at Chicken N Pickle, a Mizzou-friendly restaurant on the banks of the Missouri River in the St. Louis suburb of St. Charles, where he has been taking pictures with fans all evening and glad-handing for help with Every True Tiger, the branding and NIL agency of Mizzou athletics, and a new $250 million addition to the football stadium that will enclose the North End Zone and hopefully entomb the program’s tortured past there. Hundreds of fans have gathered to hear him speak publicly for the first time since beating Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl, where he trumpeted a war cry on the victor’s stage, “We’re not blue bloods, we’re a dirty, hardworking brotherhood … M-I-Z!”

On this night, Drink could pass as a fan in the restaurant, so it’s hard to spot him at first. His brown hair is combed to the side and his long-sleeve shirt is tucked into black chinos as he stands off in the corner at various points, constantly checking his phone. He lacks any kind of security buffer or coterie to lead him through the crowd of Bud Light drinkers and nachos eaters, of kids with plush hats with tiger tails dangling from the ears shaking pom-poms, of Truman the Tiger standing by the side of a stage giving a curtsy to the coach, of older men and women in various shades of black and gold as hopeful for 2024 as for any season in the past. The dimples embedded into Drinkwitz’s freshly shaved face make him look younger than 41, the face of this now-relevant but historically misbegotten team.

Twice in my lifetime, in 2007 and 2013, Missouri was a half away from the national championship game. This was under Pinkel, the stoic former tight end who seemed to withhold any sense of humor but made up for his lack of personality by taking Missouri all the way to No. 1. But the Tigers lost in the 2007 Big 12 championship game when Sam Bradford and Oklahoma pulled away in the second half after a Chase Daniel interception, and in the 2013 SEC title showdown Malzahn and what seemed like an Auburn team of destiny road-graded Mizzou in the fourth quarter, for which I was, sadly, present. Both those nights spun endlessly nowhere after the final whistle for a childhood fan, for a native of the state, someone who understood the precedent of finally seeing the team at the threshold but unable to cross. Walking back to a car under a black sky that might as well have let history whisper through: Missouri wasn’t and isn’t going to ever get there.

Now, though, Drink is asking everyone to believe. The Tigers just went 11-2; why not? With him on stage are three players, Burden, safety Marvin Burks and a new transfer cornerback from Clemson, Toriano Pride Jr. Drink cracks a joke about their 40 times not being good enough. He believes the Tigers should be as talented on offense as anyone in the country. They did have to replace Cody Schrader, a walk-on running back who led the SEC in rushing in 2023 and was the best story in college football, and did so by signing two of the most sought-after senior running backs, Nate Noel and Marcus Carroll, from the transfer portal. Cook, a senior, should be a top SEC quarterback again if healthy. Drink tells the fans there’s no better wide receiver room in America, with Burden; Theo Wease Jr., a transfer from Oklahoma; and Mookie Cooper and Marquis Johnson. A look at the schedule and one figures: 11-1? Possible. Or 10-2 at the worst.

Drink floats atop all the morbid backstory exuding an enthusiastic charm and the temperament of someone christened as a winner, of someone whose salary will rise to $9 million next season and, at least for a while, make him bulletproof. He greets the crowd before him outside in plastic chairs and stands on a makeshift stage outside the restaurant, a few weeks before the team will be announced just outside the preseason top 10.

“I been coming to these events for four years,” he says. “I remember coming here and telling people all the things we believed we could do. We believed we could recruit elite players and we believed we could win at the biggest stage … and we’re not satisfied with where we’re at, we feel like we just realized our potential. Now it’s about continuing to push, but in order to do that, we need you.”

An older man named Rob stands up in the crowd and asks for the microphone.

“Coach, I live in Moscow Mills, Missouri,” he says, “and I’ve been a Tiger fan for a long time. Three years in my lifetime we flirted with being No. 1. The first time I remember was 1969 — we lost a heartbreaker in the Orange Bowl to Penn State. In 2007, we had a magical season with Chase Daniel and then 2013, that first SEC East championship. My question for you is, after each one of those seasons, expectations were sky-high for the following year. And we had good seasons the next year but fell short. Tell me why this season is going to be different … how are we going to take that next step and not fall back just a little bit?”

Drink is caught off guard by how deep and kind of unsettling this is. How tortured an ask. Though he has been the coach at Missouri going on five years, it is unclear if even now he fully understands the embedded self-hatred of Tigers fans, whose expectations, despite the winning, are that fate will intervene no matter his preparations and things will always go wrong.

“Well, I mean that’s the toughest question I’ve been asked in a while,” he says. “Um … there’s no way to know or predict what the future is going to be. I think our team is still extremely hungry. We want to win an SEC championship. We had six players drafted. Those guys were really good players. But if you look at the competitive depth on our team, we should be a more talented team this year. It’s really going to come down to the mindset of the coaches and players and I, and are they really hungry to reestablish their own identity? All I know is, the only thing that matters to us is being better today than we were yesterday. If you can do that continuously …” He might not always look the part, but all these gathered people are looking at him as the head football coach. And he sounds like a head football coach, relying on old-school phrases in the hope of winning people over. He trails off. The crowd applauds him.

“YOU’RE NOT A jock, Coach,” I say to him. Which is meant as a compliment, an affirmation of one of the ways he has described himself. Drink is on one of the morning walks he takes every weekday before practice begins, when he collects his thoughts and makes phone calls to donors and recruits, when he slips away for 40 minutes to an hour by himself. The compliment is a pledge of allegiance, me describing myself and pointing at my own glasses, the fact I, too, have always had to wear them; have always looked for ways to put them aside; have gone to lengths, even as a child, to hide that my vision was bad by either pretending to see the board or sitting in the front of the class. That I can’t wear contacts because of sensitivity, that I still take them off half the time my wife and I post pictures on Instagram because removing my glasses is a part of my life. There are four days before the 2024 season begins at home against Murray State, and he’s tracking his steps on an app and wearing a white safari hat that shades his face and the top of his head and the whistle around his neck. We follow his usual path from the auxiliary staircase of the South End Zone football complex past the indoor football training facility and down the walkway with huge painted tiger paws up the hill to the basketball arena. The light stands atop Faurot Field disappear behind us into pretty woodlands and a trail veined with cracked gravel and littered with leaves, chippering birds getting louder and the sound of the cars on Providence Road softening into a kind of faraway purr.

Drink does not like what I said, though. He shakes his head and says, “Well, all right,” and then, “Ah, OK,” but it is clear he does not want to be identified this way, that we are not on the same page. No matter what he has said about himself in public he will not be a member of my made-up club. “I’m a better athlete than you expect, but that’s OK,” he says, hardened by the comment and quieted by it, like it’s a lazy perpetuation of the image he has been up against since he was a senior in high school getting good grades and playing football and having to prove to people by force that the guy pictured in his yearbook wasn’t who he actually is, wasn’t all he is.

“I am probably more like Mike McDaniel than Dan Campbell,” he says. “I quit caring what people say. [Shutting people up] used to be a big motivation for me. And carrying this chip on my shoulder. But now I’ve come to realize that’s never going to quiet anybody. The only thing you have to prove is to the people who believed in you.”

I want to tell him I’m one of those people who believed, who believe. But he has me on the other side of the ledger at the moment. And from there, the “big motivation” seems like it’s not all the way in the past tense.

He walks past the quiet softball field and soccer field and over the covered bridge that leads back to the football complex where he and players enter on Saturdays before the games. Drink is the fourth of six children. He shared a room in the trailer with two brothers (his three sisters shared another) and was picked on by them. He rotated sleeping on different levels of a bunk bed at his brothers’ command.

His older brother Jeremy, the president of a hospital system in Southwest Missouri, calls him at least once a week and attends pretty much every home game. “He’s always been blind as a bat,” Jeremy says. “In all candor, we didn’t have much money, so those were the glasses given to him. Dad was a teacher and mom stayed home and took care of the kids. That’s why they were as big as his face when he took pictures. One of the funniest stories is that Mom once accidentally left him at the eye doctor. She had to take alllll these kids to school. She went and dropped him off before school, took everybody else, forgot to come back and get him.”

I ask him about Drink now, about what he sees in him. Jeremy keeps it simple. “I ask for his opinion about how to lead,” he says. “How do you motivate? How do you inspire people around you?”

ASK MALZAHN ABOUT Eli Drinkwitz and it’s like he’s talking about himself. Drink is his guy, shaped out of clay under Malzahn’s intense work schedule. He doesn’t get too deep about anything different about Drink, of course; why would he? “Well, he is unique … it’s hard to explain, it works to his advantage,” Malzahn says. But he wants to talk about Drink as a young linebacker in high school: “He’d knock your head off now. Knock your stinkin’ head off. He has those glasses and looks a certain way, don’t let the kinda whatever you call it, don’t let that kid you.” He wants to talk about him as someone willing to “grind” for $13,000 a year in the labyrinths of quality control, someone who never recoiled from the slog of watching film, as it was his job after every Auburn game to break down the tape through the eyes of an opponent, to self-scout the team and present a report to Malzahn as though Drink were the defensive coordinator. In their first year together, Auburn won the national title. Yes, Malzahn wants to talk about Drink’s leadership and communication skills, to tell me that Drink possesses an imperceptible gift of being able to be smart about football but also relate to anyone, that everyone at Auburn from the secretary to the equipment people knew him and liked him. A nerd? Hell no. Malzahn called Drink and Casey Woods, now the offensive coordinator at SMU, the Ryan Brothers, in homage to Rex and Rob. “That dude is a worker,” Malzahn says. “He’s earned everything to get where he’s at. At Arkansas State he’d get there at 6 in the morning and wouldn’t leave ’til midnight. He wouldn’t flinch. He gets crap done.”

This is kind of the way Cook wants to talk about Drink, too. In the irrevocable terms of what they’ve been through together, their relationship linked in that Drink will always be the coach who stuck by the player last season and even this one, when Cook was booed at home games and went on to be one of the best quarterbacks in the SEC. Cook being a Missouri kid, a St. Louisan who dreamed about playing for Mizzou when he was a child going to games, who last week brought Drink’s voice to quiver in the postgame news conference when he was injured early against Auburn and then returned from the hospital in the third quarter to lead Mizzou to 6-1. “What can I tell you about Drink?” Cook asks. “Like, he’s goofy and he has humor. But he’s cutthroat at the same time. He represents Missouri with a chip on his shoulder, a little swag. I used to think of him more of like as a nerd, kind of like that. That idea, ‘Ah, OK, this guy is really smart and has glasses but he’s probably not, like, swaggy.’ As time has gone on, it’s changed.”

Drink’s old coach in high school, Frank Vines, who led the Alma Airedales for more than 30 years and was a three-time state champion, now watches every Missouri game from the rocking chair in the living room of his house back in Alma. “I’m getting old and went through a lot of kids,” he says. “Eli was not a great athlete. But he was very smart, very dedicated, and those are the two things I think that have kind of stood out in his life. On our team he was like having a coach out on the field.”

Watching Drink now prowl the sidelines is watching someone with his own style but who exhibits an amalgamation of what he has learned at various stops: Arkansas State, Auburn, North Carolina State, App State. The intense game-planning in his office and rigorous schedule of watching film like Malzahn, even late at night with his feet propped up on the couch, at home, with his daughters. Vines was a yeller, a tough guy, “the bad guy,” he says to me, “I didn’t baby anybody around,” and that is one thing Drink must have decided he didn’t want to be; he doesn’t scream at players often, and at one point, as a student, he told Vines to his face that he didn’t like the way he said “Goddamn,” using the Lord’s name in vain. Drink, for example, sits quietly in the head chair of the staff meeting going around the room and letting position coaches talk about their observations, much more in the style of a listener than a dictator.

Zac Thomas, Drink’s quarterback for one glorious season at Appalachian State, laments what they could have done with an even better team had Drink not left for Missouri in 2019. “He does a really good job of relating to players,” Thomas says. “He’s one of the first coaches I had in that level where you could come to him with problems, he was a sounding board. The way he goes about himself, cracking jokes — yes, football is an intense game, and you go through a lot of hardships, but you also have to be able to have the laughter, bring joy to the locker room. He brings people on cookouts, paintball, skiing trips, fun activities, he does ways to reward you to keep you going. He’s not the coolest coach on the face of the planet, but he knows what he’s good at.”

VINCE LOMBARDI WORE glasses. The game of football actually seems built on those horned rims and the sport he was able to see through them that no one else could. A company in New York now sells replica frames called Vince, describing this era as an eyewear renaissance and the throwback of his championship look. Woody Hayes wore them, too, in a different way, a brutalist accentuation of the black hat yanked over his ears and his shoulders bursting through his button-up jacket, his eyes magnified through those lenses and the insatiable temper nearly popping them right out of his skull. Jim Harbaugh wears glasses like a Siberian prison wears the snow. Supposedly, he says, to honor three people: Hayes, Michael Douglas in “Falling Down,” and Malcolm X.

Drink is in his office, wearing glasses. His tennis shoes are propped up on a velvet couch. The view through his office window is of the north end zone of the stadium and a clear and inviolable sky. When the season began, the Tigers were picked by plenty of people to make the first-ever 12-team playoff; so many pundits picked them that it honestly seemed to diehard Missouri followers like a bad harbinger. Mizzou has never once been able to follow up a great season with an even better one. He shows me the customized Cuban cigar humidor in black and gold that he received as a gift for winning the Cotton Bowl. Some texts from the Chief, singer Eric Church himself, a big fan of Drink. The Cotton Bowl ring and football from the game on a stand. A dozen other trinkets from last season’s run, an actual Cotton Bowl throw rug, and this giant framed picture right outside his door that shows him wearing sunglasses and the microphone headset thing extending in front of his mouth as he stares off into the distance with a hard-won frown, as if he were Nick Saban.

The entire office wall is made of glass. The view is of the sky and the stadium bleachers and the goalposts and the grass berm and Mizzou’s “Rock M.” Beyond that Providence Road and the University Hospital, the brick dorms with the windows open, a view all the way toward the columns at Jesse Hall and the most underrated campus in the SEC. By the window, to preview this same view of the future, Drink has a poster board of what the north end zone will look like in two years. Multiple levels of luxury suites rising several stories above a shrunken Rock M, an expanded concourse, thousands of people milling about the unfamiliar edifice, new seats where most of the grass used to be. I tell Drink, who didn’t grow up in Missouri but whose parents took him to Branson a few times, that when I look out there, I don’t exactly see what he does: sunshine, sure, but there are darker implications. I look out there and see Charles Johnson pushing with the ball one more time on “fifth down” from the 1, and Colorado “winning” the national title though he still didn’t cross the goal line. I see Matt Davison in the cool night air from my vantage point in the bleachers as a 17-year-old shocked that Mizzou was about to beat No. 1 Nebraska, Davison’s gloved hands cradling a deflected pass from Scott Frost off the foot of a Husker receiver named Shevin Wiggins with no time left in regulation, as the fans begin to storm the field at Faurot but then have to pull back in stupor as the most dominant team of the 1990s miraculously ties the game and then goes on to beat the Tigers in overtime. This is known as the Flea Kicker. Drink doesn’t see the field goal attempt, like I do, hook right in double overtime to ruin an undefeated season against South Carolina in 2013. He doesn’t understand the bodies that are buried and how deep they go, and thankfully he doesn’t care. Last year, Harrison Mevis drilled a 61-yard field goal into that end zone and Mizzou beat Kansas State.

“Mizzou was a challenger brand,” he tells me. Of course, he knows it doesn’t have the cachet of Alabama, or even somewhere like Florida. Which is why he took the job thinking the state had untapped potential given the talent that St. Louis and Kansas City regularly produce but that usually goes elsewhere. NIL and Drinkwitz are changing this. He has signed three top-25 classes in his Missouri tenure and kept several of the state’s best players (and some best nationally) home, including five-star recruits such as Burden and Williams Nwaneri. The cachet thing still proves true, though, when the Tigers drop in the polls three times after victories against Boston College, Vanderbilt and Auburn. It will take forever to be seen as Alabama’s worthy opponent, even if they beat the Tide on Saturday.

“We wanted to create story and space because if you’re not a blue blood it’s hard to get written about or recognized,” Drink says. “But now we’re to the point where we’re there, and it needs to be a lot less about me and a lot more about Brady Cook and Luther and Theo Wease. Those guys are way more important to this than I am. But it took a little of me putting myself out there to get noticed. But now that they notice and know who we are, it doesn’t need to be about me. I was a lot more active on social media. When I was at SEC media days, I was a lot wittier and a lot further and willing to take shots at other people, maybe more antagonizing; this year’s approach to media days was much more calculated.” No one at Mizzou has ever spent so much time on his image or being mischievous. The Star Wars thing he did with Mullen. Taking a jab at Tennessee’s Josh Heupel by calling a timeout last year at the end of the game against Tennessee, the game well in hand. Heupel is known for running up the score and kicking onside kicks against lesser teams, and when the Tennessee kicker missed against Missouri, Drink deadpanned after, “We stand on business, Josh.” About the only opposing coach Drink has never been willing to tweak is Saban.

“I tried to avoid doing anything that would create a narrative or create a viral moment, because I wanted the focus to be on the team and the players. As great as Saban is, when he retired, they replaced him in 48 hours. And the story was no longer about him and Alabama, it was about who’s next. No matter how good you are, you’re always replaceable.”

I’D RATHER HAVE a nerd as a coach. I’d rather have this guy who cannonballs off the diving board into the backyard swimming pool at his daughters’ command. I’d rather have someone who is openly self-referential than some other kind of coach, or the idea of some other kind of coach. I’d rather have this guy who drives his daughters in the back of a golf cart through the neighborhood to the Phillips 66 to get them ice cream or cinnamon buns or Andy’s Frozen Custard. Who takes them fly-fishing in Montana and wears the little safari-style hat. This guy who once sang “Livin’ on a Prayer” in public at a Mexican resort. As someone posted on X in November, “He may be a nerd, but he’s our nerd.” At this point, after all, no one has led Mizzou all the way. Not Don Faurot, the immortal coach in statue outside the stadium and for whom it is still named. Not Dan Devine, who had an 11-win season six decades ago, walking the old sideline in a suit and tie and top hat before he went to coach the Packers. Not Pinkel. So why not this person? This history major; this occasional strummer of guitars (he has two in his office) and smoker of Cuban cigars; this lover of Wendy’s hamburgers, this doer of dishes on weeknights when he comes home from football, this guy who somehow managed to get his daughters into Taylor Swift concerts this year and last, who gets them coffee now when he takes them to school. This guy who makes opposing fans boil over simply because he is a singularity in the game. I’d really rather him change nothing about himself at all — nothing about the way he looks, about the way he speaks, about the way he seems to have gotten under Heupel’s skin. Look at him. Look at his aura. Mizzou has never had anyone like him.

THE PLAYERS GATHER around him. The light is heavy outside. The turf of the practice field steams. He has been watching from a distance and standing behind a machine that sends footballs into the air to mimic a punt. He has a microphone that he talks through and huge speakers on the side of the field project his voice so players in every position group can hear him. Earlier in the day, the first time they saw him he ran into the team meeting room with his arms waving in the air, clapping to get the team going, shouting expletives when talking about getting the football into the air against Murray State. But then later out on the turf, the players put their hands on each other’s shoulders as he speaks to them, lost in the group except for the sound of his voice. And to be fair to him, from a distance, in the middle of the field with the players and his staff, in a white hoodie in the noonday sun, nothing really stands out about him. He looks like any other coach. Except for two red indentions on the sides of his nose where his glasses used to be.

Sports

How every five-star college football recruit fits at his new school

Published

6 hours ago

July 4, 2025

admin

How every five-star college football recruit fits at his new school

Multiple Contributors

Jul 4, 2025, 02:50 PM ET

College football’s Class of 2026 features a record 23 five-star prospects atop ESPN’s latest top 300 rankings for the cycle. Among that group, only seven remain uncommitted, including No. 1 overall prospect Lamar Brown and top running back Derrek Cooper, No. 7 in the ESPN 300. After nearly one-third of the 2026 five-star class made their commitments between May 1 and June 30, a handful more are set to come off the board in July.

For each commitment, recruiting reporter Eli Lederman and scouts Craig Haubert and Tom Luginbill will look at how recruits landed at their school and what we can expect in college:

2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 2

School/Hometown: St. Frances Academy/Baltimore, Maryland

Committed to: Maryland Terrapins

Background: Once ranked as the cycle’s No. 1 defender, Elee committed to Maryland on Dec. 7, 2024, after logging 120 total tackles and 23 sacks across his sophomore and junior seasons. If he ultimately signs later this year, Elee will join the Terps as the highest-ranked recruit in program history.

Despite his December pledge, Elee stayed in touch with other Power 4 programs in January and initially scheduled spring official visits to Auburn, Ohio State, Penn State, South Carolina and Texas A&M before canceling those trips and formally shutting down his recruitment in late February. As things stand, Elee is still locked in with the Terps with his June 20 trip to Maryland standing as the only official visit on his calendar this spring.

Scout’s take: Good recruiting starts at home. If Maryland holds on to Elee, he’d be the first No. 1 prospect from the area to reach Maryland in the ESPN 300 era, and the first time in five cycles the Terps landed the top in-state prospect. At roughly 6-foot-4 with an 80-inch wingspan, Elee is a lean, lengthy and disruptive edge rusher. That length blended with an excellent first step and a strong motor wreaks havoc off the edge. Maryland ranked last in sacks (14) in the Big Ten in 2024. The Terps hope signing Elee and 2025 ESPN 300 defensive end Zahir Mathis will remedy that situation. They could emerge as one of the conference’s most formidable pass-rushing duos. — Craig Haubert

2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 3

School/Hometown: Nixa High School/Nixa, Missouri

Committed to: Miami Hurricanes

Background: Cantwell is the son of two Olympic shot putters — including a silver medalist at the 2008 Beijing Games — and his commitment to the Hurricanes marks perhaps the biggest recruiting win in Mario Cristobal’s tenure leading Miami.

A towering, yet athletic lineman, Cantwell kept in-state Missouri and Michigan involved in his process before cutting his finalists to Georgia, Miami, Ohio State and Oregon last month. Cantwell took a multi-day trip to see the Hurricanes in March and joins Miami as the program’s highest-ranked pledge since Cristobal took over following the 2021 season. Cantwell, a two-time state champion shot putter who holds multiple national high school throwing records, intends to continue his track and field career alongside football in college.

Scout’s take: A former offensive lineman at Miami, Cristobal has landed a key building block for that unit. The Canes’ O-Line unit looks to be strong this season, but could lose several pieces from that group after this season. Cristobal began reloading the unit in the Class of 2025, by signing the top interior offensive lineman in the country in S.J. Alofaituli, who projects to be in the mix this fall. Now the Canes has the No. 1 OT in the 2026 class.

Cantwell is a massive presence at roughly 6-foot-7 and 320 pounds and is powerful and tenacious in his play. Beyond his size, Cantwell is a flexible big body with good feet. He could have some growing pains early in his college career in pass protection, but should be expected to come in and play right away. His arrival could time well with the potential departure of 2023 five-star OL Francis Mauigoa who is projected as a 2026 first-round NFL pick. Cantwell could have a similar trajectory as Mauigoa in that he is a plug-and-play addition that experiences some early challenges but continues to develop into a key piece of the unit and an eventual NFL prospect. — Haubert

2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 4

School/Hometown: Mater Dei/Santa Ana, California

Committed to: Ohio State Buckeyes

Background: The son of late Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Chris Henry, Chris Henry Jr. has been committed since July 2023, longer than any other prospect within the 2026 ESPN 300.

A knee injury sidelined Henry for the majority of his junior campaign, but he proved himself as an elite playmaker in his last complete season, when he totaled 71 catches for 1,127 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns as a sophomore at Withrow (Ohio) High School in 2023. Initially set for official visits to Ohio State, Miami, Oregon and USC this spring, Henry shut down his recruitment April 1.

Scout’s take: To best maximize his traits, the Buckeyes will need to deploy Henry on the outside. He’s a one-on-one matchup problem on 50-50 balls whom Ohio State can maximize — particularly in the red zone. Even when covered, he isn’t really covered. Few wide receivers 6-foot-5 or taller can move, shake and produce after the catch like Henry. He shows an amazing run-and-catch aspect in the vertical passing game. Henry’s long arms and ability to elevate in traffic create distinct advantages on jump balls. His twitchiness is very similar to that of Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins and sets him apart from other receivers at this size. — Tom Luginbill

2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 5

School/Hometown: Nashville, Tennessee/Nashville Christian

Committed to: Georgia Bulldogs

Background: Initially committed to Georgia in March 2024, Curtis took a winding road back to the Bulldogs’ 2026 class after he pulled his pledge and reopened his recruitment last October.

Alabama, Auburn, Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon and South Carolina were all involved in Curtis’ process earlier this year. Curtis narrowed his options to the Bulldogs and Ducks in February, ultimately closing his recruitment with a series of visits and in-home meetings with both programs this spring prior to his May 5 announcement. In the 6-foot-4, 225-pound passer, coach Kirby Smart once again has the cycle’s top quarterback and a potential cornerstone for the program’s future under center.

Scout’s take: Curtis will join a QB room at Georgia that is loaded with former ranked prospects and his move will likely send one or more of those players to the transfer portal. Curtis has ideal size at 6-3, 222 pounds and has tracked at 18.5 MPH Max Speed which is impressive for someone his size. His measurable standard in every category tested meets or exceeds every measure you’d like to have in a QB prospect.

He has natural arm power, which is his best trait, and he makes throws from a lot of different arm angles. He has been clocked at a 4.8 40. He can be a crafty runner and use his athleticism, smarts and arm talent to make throws in and out of the pocket. — Luginbill

2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 6

School/Hometown: American Heritage/Plantation, Florida

Committed to: Texas Longhorns

Background: Bell, the son of 12-year NBA veteran Raja Bell, is the longest-tenured member of the Longhorns’ 2026 class. He has been locked in with Texas since he committed in June 2024 following a series of visits with the program last spring.

A three-year starter at American Heritage, Bell threw for 2,597 yards and 29 touchdowns with a 70.6% completion percentage as a junior last fall before suffering a season-ending leg injury. Despite flip efforts from Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia and LSU earlier this year, Bell’s sights remain set on signing with the Longhorns and coach Steve Sarkisian in December.

Scout’s take: Hopefully Bell takes a page out of Arch Manning’s development blueprint when it comes to patience and focus. He’s going to only get bigger, stronger and more mature without being thrown into the fire right away. Bell’s fit is quite similar to what Manning brought to the Longhorns. He’s a naturally gifted passer who is a better athlete and runner than Quinn Ewers and gives the Longhorns another player they can develop. Bell has continually performed at a high level against top high school competition and should be ready to make the leap to the next level. — Luginbill

2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 8

School/Hometown: Grimsley High School/Greensboro, North Carolina

Committed to: Tennessee Volunteers

Background: Brandon committed to the Vols last August before totaling 2,159 passing yards and 27 touchdowns with one interception as a junior at Grimsley last fall.

Brandon remains in near-daily contact with the Tennessee staff and has not engaged with other programs in 2025. He is focused instead on helping recruit a 2026 Vols class that already includes ESPN 300 pass catchers in wide receiver Tyreek King and tight end Carson Sneed. Brandon will take his official visit to Tennessee on June 20.

Scout’s take: The departure of Nico Iamaleava could allow Brandon to battle for the starting job sooner rather than later in a very quarterback-friendly system. Several recent Volunteers quarterbacks have similar stature, athleticism and arm strength. Brandon is more advanced than Hendon Hooker at the same stage and the pair share several traits. Brandon is also much more accurate than Joe Milton. While he lacks Iamaleava’s polish at this stage, Brandon throws an exceptional deep ball, which is a requirement in this scheme that loves to attack vertically. — Luginbill

2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 9

School/Hometown: Tupelo High School/Tupelo, Mississippi

Committed to: Florida Gators

Background: ESPN’s No. 2 defender in the 2026 class has logged 18.5 sacks and more than 140 total tackles over three varsity seasons. If he signs with the Gators in December, he’ll represent Florida’s highest-ranked defensive addition in more than a decade.

McCoy initially committed to LSU earlier this year before reopening his recruitment in February. He trimmed his list of finalists to Florida, LSU and Texas last month, then sealed his commitment to the Gators across a pair of visits with the program between May 30 and June 14. McCoy will join former No. 10 overall prospect L.J. McCray as the program’s second five-star defensive end when he arrives on campus in 2026.

Scout’s take: The Gators finished last season strong, creating optimism for 2025 and beyond in the Billy Napier era. Part of the strong close was improved defensive play, and while further improvement and more consistency is needed among its front, Florida is stacking some excellent young talent to further fuel the excitement.

Former ESPN 300 edge rusher signees Tyreak Sapp and Kamran James should help fuel their ascension, but defenders more recently added can boost this unit to another level. The hope is that McCray, a five-star in the 2024 class, will break out and several new high-ceiling D-line signings — including No. 6 DE Jalen Wiggins — can get involved.

Florida is stopping there and now add to the mix another five-star defender in McCoy. A breakout performer during the Under Armour All-America week this past January, that setting showcased his impact ability. He has elite length with a big frame and has demonstrated a competitive “alpha dog” nature and plays with a motor. He has also shown good practice habits and all those traits are accentuated with his excellent physical tools. He moves well with good flexibility and has excelled in combine testing situations. He can develop into an disruptive, top pass rusher but can also play the run and be a factor in pursuit with his mobility.

McCoy has shown all the tools, that with continued positive progress, would align with past top SEC defenders. With his build, size and competitiveness, he can offer versatility as he can pair with McCray at the Edge spot initially but could also play inside at DT.

2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 10

School/Hometown: Hattiesburg/Hattiesburg, Mississippi

Committed to: LSU Tigers

Background: Keys, ESPN’s No. 2 wide receiver prospect, committed to LSU over Alabama, Tennessee and Texas A&M on March 19. He enters late spring as the Tigers’ top-ranked commit and the leader atop one of the nation’s deepest wide receiver classes alongside fellow ESPN 300 pass catchers and LSU pledges Jabari Mack, Jakai Anderson and Kenny Darby.

However, Keys’ recruitment might not be over. The 6-foot-3, 190-pound receiver followed his commitment to LSU with visits to Ole Miss, Auburn and Miami, and Keys is still expected to take a handful of officials later this spring as perhaps the top flip candidate among the committed five-star prospects in the 2026 class.

Scout’s take: Even if he’s not an elite runner, Keys’ combination of size, range and ball skills is unmatched. Former LSU receiver Brandon LaFell is a favorable comparison. The Tigers can use Keys’ length, long arms and physicality to create matchup headaches for defenses either inside or outside. Keys has great body control and coordination on jump balls, making him a dangerous threat even when covered. He won’t win a lot of open-field foot races, but Keys could develop into a go-to option if utilized in the slot against zone coverages or on the outside for deep balls. — Luginbill

2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 11

School/Hometown: Reidsville/Reidsville, North Carolina

Committed to: Oregon Ducks

Background: Harrison kept a recruiting profile after he committed to Oregon over Tennessee, North Carolina, Miami, Penn State and Florida State before officially shutting down his recruitment in March.

A two-sport star who is committed to play basketball with the Ducks, Harrison remains the top-ranked member of an Oregon recruiting class that has lost four top-150 pledges since mid-February. Harrison, North Carolina’s second-ranked recruit in 2026, will be back on campus for an official visit with the Ducks in June.

Scout’s take: The tight end position played a pivotal role in Oregon fielding one of college football’s best passing attacks in 2024, with Terrance Ferguson hauling in 43 catches. While Harrison won’t arrive for another season, he’ll help the Ducks reload at that spot and could supply even greater big-play ability.

For Ferguson, the presence of Tez Johnson and Evan Stewart opened up more room to operate. Oregon’s high-level recruiting should allow Harrison to enjoy a similar situation playing alongside No. 1 wide receiver Dakorien Moore. An excellent basketball player, the 6-foot-6 Harrison has elite height, length and a massive catch radius. Much like former basketball-to-football standouts Jimmy Graham, Antonio Gates and Julius Thomas, Harrison can high-point the ball and box out defenders in contested situations, giving Oregon another dangerous playmaker in the passing game. — Haubert

2026 ESPN 300 ranking: No. 13

Committed to: Oregon Ducks

Background: Initially set to announce his decision on Aug. 5, Iheanacho moved up his commitment and joined Kendre’ Harrison and safety Jett Washington as the Ducks’ third five-star pledge in 2026.

Iheanacho, the 6-foot-7, 350-pound prospect from North Bethesda, Maryland, is ESPN’s second-ranked offensive tackle in 2026. He took visits to each of Auburn, LSU, Oregon and Penn State this spring before solidifying his place as the second-ranked pledge in the Ducks’ incoming class. After losing four-star pledge Kodi Greene (No. 38 overall) and missing on Miami commit and No. 1 offensive tackle Jackson Cantwell (No. 3) this spring, Ihenacho gives coach Dan Lanning and Oregon a much-needed cornerstone on the offensive line this cycle.

Scout’s take: The five-star is a huge addition for the Ducks, literally, as Iheanacho is a massive physical presence consistently measuring in at roughly 6-foot-6 and around 350 pounds. At this past January’s Under Armour All-America game, mixed with many of the nations top juniors and seniors, Iheanacho physically stood out among that offensive line group. His large frame also comes with elite arm length and he uses it well with violent hands.

His ranking though goes beyond just physical measurables as he also possesses good flexibility and not surprisingly is a powerful player. He is listed at tackle, but during that UA All-America week he worked at left tackle and left guard and could find a home, at least initially, at guard. At that spot, his size and power can be utilized while he further refines his footwork, but in the long run, he has exhibited to the tools to develop into an NFL-caliber lineman.

The Ducks are utilizing the portal to build their O-Line for 2025 with several notable transfers added to that unit. Youth will play a role in the future though. In the 2025 class, the Ducks signed five-star OT Douglas Utu and now have Iheanacho and ESPN 300 guard, and former Cal commit, Tommy Tofi. — Haubert

2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 14

School/Hometown: Mount Miguel High School/Spring Valley, California

Committed to: Texas A&M Aggies

Background: Considered among the fastest prospects in the 2026 cycle, Arrington landed as the cornerstone pledge of an increasingly deep Texas A&M recruiting class.

Arrington, a 6-foot-1 sprinter from outside of San Diego, visited Penn State, Washington, Texas A&M, Alabama and Oregon before narrowing his recruitment to the Aggies and Ducks. With a combination of height, length and speed that Texas A&M coaches have compared to the build of former All-SEC cornerback Will Lee, Arrington carries the potential to develop into a first-round caliber defensive back at the next level. If he ultimately lands with the Aggies later this year, he’ll join as the program’s highest-ranked signee under coach Mike Elko and its top addition since defensive tackle David Hicks (No. 8) in the 2023 class.

Scout’s take: Arrington brings a lot of the same traits that Jaylen Mbakwe brought to Alabama last fall. He’s a dynamic athlete who could play multiple positions but projects best on defense because of his length and elite level speed. Texas A&M is getting a smooth, fluid playmaker with excellent ball skills that should be able to find him a spot in the rotation sooner rather than later given his mature skill set and the fact he plays at a premium position that every program in America covets.

Outside of Dezz Ricks, the majority of the depth, including starters at corner, are all upperclassman. Arrington is going to have to fight and scrap to prove that he’s mature enough to make the jump because he’s more than ready from a talent perspective. — Luginbill

2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 15

School/Hometown: Archbishop Hoban/Akron, Ohio

Committed to: USC Trojans

Background: ESPN’s No. 1 cornerback prospect followed five-star offensive tackle Keenyi Pepe as the second five-star pledge in Trojans coach Lincoln Riley’s star-studded 2026 class.

Hill grew up two hours northeast of Ohio State and visited the in-state Buckeyes along with Alabama, Oregon and USC earlier this spring. But no program pushed harder to land Hill than the Trojans, who secured his pledge after a second spring visit to Southern California over the last weekend of April. As things stands, Hill is the highest-ranked pledge in the nation’s deepest recruiting class and sits as the top prospect committed to an impressive USC defensive class in 2026.

Scout’s take: Hill is a total football player and very dynamic. He has grown almost two inches over the last few years, and is now 5-11, which has greatly enhanced his value on the perimeter. He’s a leaper as well allowing him to mask some height deficiencies. He plays on both sides of the ball with tremendous ball and playmaker skills. Hill also has elite speed, posting a 4.4 laser 40 and 21.3 mph max speed. He reminds us of former USC standout Adoree Jackson, another smooth and quick footed shutdown corner. He could even be an option on offense. He’s a premier player at a premium position and USC is continuing to make strides on defense. — Luginbill

2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 16

School/Hometown: Legacy the School of Sports Sciences/Spring Creek, Texas

Committed to: Houston Cougars

Background: Henderson stands among the most intriguing quarterback prospects in the 2026 cycle and remains the subject of flip efforts from some of the nation’s top programs despite his long-standing pledge to Houston, situated roughly 28 miles from his home.

Committed to the Cougars since May 27, 2024, Henderson has repeatedly emphasized his intention to stick with Houston this spring. But those public rebuffs have not stopped programs such as Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Georgia, Ohio State and Oregon from keeping in touch in recent months, and Henderson’s recruitment certainly remains one to watch as the 2026 quarterback market plays out from now to the early signing period.

Scout’s take: It’s unclear whether Henderson pans out at quarterback or another position. His fundamentals are raw, but he’s very competitive and productive. Henderson is similar to Duke transfer quarterback Darian Mensah, who was recruited by coach Willie Fritz to Tulane before Fritz took the Houston job. Landing Henderson is a significant pickup for the Cougars, even if he’s not polished enough to make an immediate impact. He’s a developmental player who needs more consistency in the passing game and more downfield arm strength. Henderson builds toward his top-end speed as opposed to being initially explosive. He has hit 20.6 mph on tape, which is a great time for a quarterback. Henderson has a high ceiling regardless of his position. — Luginbill

2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 17

School/Hometown: IMG Academy/Bradenton, Florida

Committed to: USC Trojans

Background: Originally from Long Beach California, the 6-foot-7, 325-pound offensive tackle from Florida’s IMG Academy is set for a return to Southern California as the top-ranked pledge in coach Lincoln Riley’s 2026 class at USC.

Pepe is one of four offensive tackles among 2026’s five-star prospects. He took over as the starting left tackle at IMG Academy during his junior season last fall and stiff-armed the likes of Florida, Georgia, Miami and Texas to join the Trojans’ incoming class, where he projects as a potentially foundational piece for the future on the offensive line.

Scout’s take: Now a member of the Big Ten, USC is working to strengthen its roster in the trenches. The Trojans’ 2026 class already has double-digit commitments along the offensive and defensive lines. Now, Pepe becomes the highest-ranked player in the class. There will be some turnover of the offensive line heading into the 2025 season with redshirt sophomore Elijah Paige returning at left tackle. Aaron Dunn and Alex Payne, both 2025 linemen ranked in the ESPN 300, come in with the 2025 class to provide young depth at least. Combine them with Pepe in the 2026 class, and USC has retooled its offensive line with some impactful recruits.

Coming out of IMG, Pepe is a prospect who has faced strong competition in practice and games. He gives the Trojans a big man who can play a key role early in his career much like Paige, who stepped in as a starter as a redshirt freshman last season. Pepe is a massive presence at roughly 6-foot-7 and 320 pounds with excellent arm length. He is more than just a big body as he is also light on his feet for his size and has good flexibility. He can continue to work on and be more consistent in some technical areas but demonstrated as a junior at the Under Armour All-America game that he is competitive, wants to learn and get better and can match up and battle against elite edge rushers. Pepe has the tools to be a starter and anchor the Trojans OL and could end up being a nice replacement for Paige at left tackle in the future. — Haubert

2026 ESPN 300 ranking: 18

School/Hometown: Sierra Canyon High School/Chatsworth, California

Committed to: Texas Longhorns

Background: Briefly committed to Oregon in May, Wesley found a new home when he committed to the Longhorns on June 22 shortly after wrapping an official visit with the program. Wesley, a 6-foot-5, 250-pound pass rusher from Chatsworth, California, entered the ESPN 300 as a five-star prospect and the nation’s No. 3 defensive end upon reclassifying from the 2027 cycle in March. He made unofficial visits to Ohio State, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M and USC this spring before scheduling officials with Oregon and Texas in June. Upon his commitment, he joined five-star Longhorns quarterback Dia Bell (No. 6 overall) commit as Texas’ second five-star pledge in 2026.

Scout’s take: Wesley has the most impact potential of any defensive line prospect coming out of the Southern California area since Kayvon Thibodeaux in 2019. He will join a talented D-line group in Texas’ 2026 class. Headed to the SEC, he reminds us of a former disruptive defender in that conference — former Ole Miss standout Robert Nkemdiche.

Wesley has more ideal length but is a well put-together prospect with a nice blend of height and bulk. He can bring versatility in how he’s used, with the ability to play on the edge and also produce inside and exploit favorable matchups with his blend of power and quickness.

He reclassified from 2027 class to 2026 and when you see him in-person, it is clear he is able physically to make that jump and be ready to move onto college. He could be a quick contributor as well. He can continue to further improve flexibility, but he is an explosive defender with active and heavy hands who can attack with speed and power as a pass rusher and be able to set the edge.

With national championship aspirations, the Longhorns turned to the transfer portal to restock their defensive line for 2025, but the future of this unit will be driven by youth with players like Wesley.

His arrival is set to overlap with current standout edge defender Colin Simmons, whose presence could help Wesley ease into a role while still contributing and having an impact like Simmons did as a freshman in 2024. He could also pair nicely with 2025 signee five-star Justus Terry, who is in a similar mold to Wesley and the two could form a formidable pair for a defensive line unit that is adding the pieces to become one of the most talented in all of college football over the next few years. — Haubert

2026 ESPN 300 ranking: No. 20

Committed to: Texas Tech Red Raiders

Background: The Red Raiders’ monster offseason of recruiting/transfer portal additions continued on July 4th when Ojo, ESPN’s No. 4 offensive tackle prospects, announced his pledge to Texas Tech.

After naming Florida, Michigan, Ohio State and Texas as his finalists, Ojo came back around on coach Joey McGuire and the Red Raiders. The 6-foot-7, 285-pounder did take an official visit to Lubbock in April, and Ojo will mark Texas Tech’s highest-ranked all-time signee if he signs with the program later this year. Of note, Ojo is also set to join the Red Raiders on a fully guaranteed three-year, $5.1 million dollar revenue contract, believed to be one of the largest guaranteed deals in college football history.

Scout’s take: Of the four offensive tackles ranked within the five-star range, Ojo is the least likely to be a plug-and-play candidate when he steps onto campus. He is ranked highly because he has excellent raw tools and arguably the highest ceiling for development.

He has elite length, consistently measuring in at 6-foot-6 with over an 80-inch wingspan and has shown he can use that length to his advantage. He is also a big man that has tested well and shows good flexibility. However, he is lean — at least 30 pounds lighter than the rest of the five-star tackles and needs to pack on more mass once he gets into the Red Raiders’ strength program. He can bend but needs to develop his footwork and be more consistent with his pad level and add the size to help counter power rushers.

Joey McGuire created a buzz when he signed in-state five-star receiver Micah Hudson in 2024, and, while that big signing has not met expectations, Hudson is back in the program and there is time and a wealth of ability to utilize. McGuire now has done it again by landing another five-star prospect from within the state in Ojo. While it might take time for Ojo’s impact to be felt, it is still a statement win on the recruiting trail. On the field, Ojo won’t face the same immediate expectations that Hudson arrived with and that is good for Ojo and his development.

The Red Raiders have worked the transfer portal well and their tackle spots will likely be manned by transfers backed up by a deep pool of freshmen within that unit. A larger spotlight will shine of Ojo at Texas Tech, but the Red Raiders still look likely to be in a position to give him some time to grow before needing to push him into action. If he develops, Ojo has the tools to be an all-conference, NFL-caliber tackle and anchor on the offensive line. — Haubert

2026 ESPN 300 ranking: No. 23

Committed to: Oregon Ducks

Background: ESPN’s No. 1 safety in the 2026 class, Washington committed to the Ducks over Alabama and USC on June 19, landing as the top-ranked defender in the program’s 2026 class.

Washington is the nephew of the late Los Angeles Lakers legend Kobe Bryant and a two-sport star at Las Vegas powerhouse Bishop Gorman High School. He recorded 38 tackles and five interceptions during his junior season last fall before leading Bishop Gorman’s basketball program to its second consecutive Nevada Class 5A state basketball title earlier this year.

Sports

Judge, Ohtani and … Ernie Clement? First-half MVPs and playoff odds for all 30 MLB teams

Published

14 hours ago

July 4, 2025

admin

Judge, Ohtani and ... Ernie Clement? First-half MVPs and playoff odds for all 30 MLB teams

Bradford DoolittleJul 4, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close

Welcome to the middle of the 2025 MLB season. We’ve already passed the natural halfway point (1,215 games) and are nearing the symbolic version of midseason (the All-Star break). Either way, we’ve seen more regular-season baseball in 2025 than we’ll get the rest of the way.

With that in mind, let’s wade into this month’s Stock Watch by taking a retrospective spin around the majors. As usual, we’ll slot teams according to the current competitive hierarchy and see how the picture has changed since we last convened. In addition, we’ll note the dominant storyline that has emerged for each club and hand out first-half MVP awards for all 30 teams.

Should we name those awards? The Stockies? No? OK, fine. Let’s just get to it.

Win average: 101.4 (Last month: 97.9, 3rd)
In the playoffs: 99.7% (Last: 97.2%)
Champions: 24.0% (Last: 16.2%)

First-half storyline: The Dodgers spent the first few months of the season proving the adage that you can’t have too much pitching. A team with an overstuffed pitching depth chart entering the spring has not just endured an avalanche of injuries to the staff, but many of those who have pitched have underachieved. And yet, because the offense has beaten its projection by nearly 100 park-neutral runs per 162 games, the Dodgers are doing just fine, thank you. And the worst of the injury spate has to be behind them at this point. Right?

First-half MVP: Shohei Ohtani (145 AXE, 1st on Dodgers, 3rd in MLB). Ohtani’s OPS is over 1.000 for the third season in a row. He’s on pace to top his career-high 54 homers from last season and score more than 150 runs. He has recently returned to the mound but looks fantastic. Just wait until we see this two-way act on an October stage.

Win average: 97.9 (Last: 99.6, 1st)
In the playoffs: 99.8% (Last: 99.3%)
Champions: 14.4% (Last: 15.6%)

First-half storyline: It’s the year of the Tiger. Detroit has broken out in a stunning way, and it’s thrilling to watch. If the season ended today, the Tigers’ Pythagorean winning percentage would be one of the five best in franchise history, behind only historic teams from 1909 (Ty Cobb), 1934-35 (Hank Greenberg) and 1968 (Denny McLain). It would be ahead of 1984 (Kirk Gibson). Yes, it’s that kind of season for the Tigers.

First-half MVP: Tarik Skubal (138 AXE, 1st on Tigers, 6th in MLB). Skubal has gone to a place that few pitchers reach. He’s in the top four of the AL in wins (1st), ERA (4th) and strikeouts (2nd). Given his trajectory, it’s possible Skubal will win his second straight pitching Triple Crown. The only pitchers to do that in back-to-back seasons: Grover Alexander (1915-16), Lefty Grove (1930-31) and Sandy Koufax (1965-66).

Win average: 96.1 (Last: 97.3, 4th)
In the playoffs: 97.2% (Last: 96.7%)
Champions: 12.6% (Last: 12.3%)

First-half storyline: An offensive explosion. The Cubs’ offense figured to be better after the offseason acquisition of Kyle Tucker. Tucker has been as advertised, but Chicago has gotten production up and down the lineup and is on pace to beat its park-neutral run forecast by 102 runs. The Cubs’ 121 team OPS+ so far is their best since — hold on to your hat — 1884.

First-half MVP: (tie) Kyle Tucker, Pete Crow-Armstrong (139 AXE, 1st and 2nd on Cubs, 4th and 5th in MLB). Tucker has a minuscule AXE edge when you go into decimals, but it’s fitting that these dynamic outfielders are co-MVPs when we round off. Again, it has been more than these two. The Cubs’ total of seven players with a 110 AXE or better is tied for second in the majors. Six of them are hitters.

Win average: 94.7 (Last: 89.5, 6th)
In the playoffs: 98.5% (Last: 83.4%)
Champions: 8.9% (Last: 4.2%)

First-half storyline: The window is open. Those (yes, me) who were heralding the imminent demise of the Astros’ dynasty now look like Cassandras. Despite the loss of Kyle Tucker, an injury-riddled half for Yordan Alvarez, a so-so start for Jose Altuve, lackluster production from key signee Christian Walker and the loss of the orange juice theme of its ballpark, Houston once again sits in the catbird seat of the AL West. The pitching — Hunter Brown and the game’s best bullpen — is the main reason, but the Tucker trade (getting Isaac Paredes and Cam Smith from the Cubs) has worked out swimmingly.

First-half MVP: Jeremy Pena (137 AXE, 1st on Astros, 8th in MLB). Pena recently hit the injured list because of a fractured rib. Given the way Houston has responded to adversity to date, the Astros probably won’t lose a game while he’s out. That’s nothing against Pena, who, in his age-27 season, has been baseball’s best shortstop this season.

Win average: 93.5 (Last: 88.6, 8th)
In the playoffs: 93.8% (Last: 65.0%)
Champions: 7.6% (Last: 3.0%)

First-half storyline: They are up in arms in Philadelphia. According to AXE, three of the top six NL starters and four of the top 11 are members of Philadelphia’s rotation … and no one in that quartet is named Aaron Nola. Zack Wheeler, co-front-runner for NL Cy Young with Paul Skenes, leads the way, but Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez and Jesus Luzardo have been excellent. Mick Abel and Taijuan Walker have chipped in. If Nola can get healthy and productive, and if Andrew Painter is anything close to advertised, the Phillies will feature baseball’s best and deepest rotation.

First-half MVP: Zack Wheeler (138 AXE, 1st on Phillies, 7th in MLB). At 35, Wheeler has flashed career-best levels in ERA+, FIP, WHIP and SO/9. If Wheeler doesn’t land his first Cy Young Award, it will be because someone like Skenes takes it from him, not because he doesn’t earn it.

Win average: 92.4 (Last: 97.3, 5th)
In the playoffs: 95.8% (Last: 98.0%)
Champions: 12.8% (Last: 18.6%)

First-half storyline: Improv time in the Bronx. The Yankees’ run profile is almost exactly on target with the preseason projection, yet this season has not followed the script. The pitching has mostly held up despite Gerrit Cole‘s season-ending injury and Devin Williams‘ mysterious inconsistencies. The hitting has found its level around Aaron Judge despite Juan Soto‘s departure and that Giancarlo Stanton‘s first homer didn’t happen until July 2. Yet, as things began to ebb in June, the outcome of this Yankees story is very hard to foresee now.

First-half MVP: Aaron Judge (159 AXE, 1st on Yankees, 1st in MLB). Despite a temporary recent downtick that now seems to be over, Judge is hitting .363/.470/.735 and is on pace for 12 WAR while playing every Yankees game so far. Don’t take this guy for granted, baseball fans — even those of you who don’t like the Yankees — because this is incredibly special.

Win average: 89.4 (Last: 98.2, 2nd)
In the playoffs: 75.7% (Last: 97.7%)
Champions: 3.2% (Last: 13.5%)

First-half storyline: Peaked too soon? The Mets got off to a roaring start but slumped miserably over the second half of June. Through June 12, New York was 45-24 and owned baseball’s best ERA, mostly thanks to an MLB-low 2.79 mark from the rotation. New York dropped 14 of 18 after that while posting the worst rotation ERA (5.93), bullpen ERA (6.53) and, of course, overall ERA (6.24) during that span. Injuries have played a big part in the plunge, but a team built on depth — which the Mets are — should hold up better than this. July is a really big month for this team.

First-half MVP: Pete Alonso (129 AXE, 1st on Mets, 18th in MLB). It’s a good thing the Mets paid Alonso during the winter. They’ve gotten the hottest version of the Polar Bear yet, one who suddenly discovered the joys of the line drive. Still, that Alonso lands in this slot rather than Juan Soto or Francisco Lindor (both 126 AXE) is a bit of an upset and, perhaps, an omen of happy regression from here.

Win average: 88.2 (Last: 85.6, 12th)
In the playoffs: 82.4% (Last: 56.9%)
Champions: 4.5% (Last: 2.0%)

First-half storyline: Major offense in a minor venue. The Rays dropped to a season-low five games under .500 on May 20 and proceeded to win 27 of 40 behind a surging offense. The Rays scored 20 more runs than any other team during the spree, as they joined division rival Toronto in bearing down on the Yankees for the AL East lead. As usual, the Rays are doing it with a roster of players casual fans might be pressed to identify. Tampa Bay might be playing in a minor league venue, but the Rays’ way continues to flourish in the majors.

First-half MVP: Jonathan Aranda (123 AXE, 1st on Rays, 42nd in MLB). Well, something clicked for Aranda, a 27-year-old first baseman who entered 2025 as a career .222 hitter. He has tacked on nearly 100 points to that mark this season with excellent secondary skills. His 123 AXE is tops among AL primary first basemen, including All-Star starter Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Win average: 87.5 (Last: 84.8, 13th)
In the playoffs: 61.7% (Last: 34.5%)
Champions: 2.1% (Last: 0.9%)

First-half storyline: More than enough good. No, that’s not bad syntax, it’s how the 2025 Brewers are built. Yet, Milwaukee is in the thick of postseason contention and it’s not because of any star-level breakouts, not even from super-talented Jackson Chourio. Instead, the Brewers have 18 players in the 100-to-119 AXE range, second most in baseball behind St. Louis. No greatness, just lots of goodness.

First-half MVP: Brice Turang (119 AXE, 1st on Brewers, 65th in MLB). Turang is again flashing Gold Glove defense at second base and stealing bags when he gets on base, which he has been doing more than ever. His OBP is fueled by a .288 batting average, which, in turn, is fueled by a .363 BABIP. Fluke? There might be some regression in store, but the improvements are real. Turang’s line drive rate is 3% better than the league average, and his hard-hit rate has jumped by 16.3% over last season. Turang has tacked on 4.6 mph to his 2024 average exit velocity.

Win average: 86.9 (Last: 84.3, 15th)
In the playoffs: 72.7% (Last: 46.2%)
Champions: 1.8% (Last: 1.0%)

First-half storyline: Staying afloat. The Blue Jays are even in the AL East standings with the Yankees shortly after July began despite the run differential of a middle-of-the-pack team. The Jays have gotten little from key signee Anthony Santander. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been very good but not great. Same for Bo Bichette. The key high-leverage relievers (Jeff Hoffman and Chad Green) have been coughing up too many homers. And yet, here the Jays are … and some of these problems might regress in the right direction. Or maybe the run differential is more of who the Jays are than the record. This is why we play 162-game seasons, to sort out stuff like this.

First-half MVP: Ernie Clement (119 AXE, 2nd on Blue Jays, 63rd in MLB). Guerrero leads the Jays in AXE (121), but we’re going to shine a light on the surprising Clement. Not that this is a race we track, but he has to be the front-runner for the AL Gold Glove at the utility player position. At the plate, he has made the most of his high-contact style. The defense, in particular, underscores a big factor in Toronto’s success: MLB-best defensive metrics.

Win average: 85.6 (Last: 84.5, 14th)
In the playoffs: 66.5% (Last: 51.1%)
Champions: 2.4% (Last: 1.9%)

First-half storyline: Rotation injuries. The Mariners have mostly spread out their injuries, but their core-five starting rotation has not been whole this season. Given that knowledge at the beginning of the season, you would not expect Seattle to be where it is, which is in position to land a wild-card slot if the season ended now. And that rotation has a good chance of getting whole as the season progresses.

First-half MVP: Cal Raleigh (149 AXE, 1st on Mariners, 2nd in MLB). Entering the season, Raleigh had a good case to be considered baseball’s best catcher. And, sure, he has hit a lot of homers the past couple of years. But could anyone have envisioned this? This is more than a breakout. This is a player on pace to shatter Mickey Mantle’s record for single-season homers by a switch-hitter (54 in 1961). And he’s a Gold Glove catcher.

Win average: 85.6 (Last: 88.4, 9th)
In the playoffs: 41.3% (Last: 62.0%)
Champions: 1.1% (Last: 1.9%)

First-half storyline: Covering the holes. Entering the season, the Padres figured to have some glaring lineup holes, and that has been the case. But San Diego has stayed in contention behind the star power of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado, and the work of a deep and dominant bullpen. As for those holes? We’ve got a month until the trade deadline.

First-half MVP: Fernando Tatis Jr. (131 AXE, 1st on Padres, 15th in MLB). Post-suspension Tatis still operates at a lower level than pre-suspension Tatis. Before missing the 2022 season, Tatis had a 160 OPS+ and averaged 8 bWAR per 162 games. Since coming back, he’s at 118 OPS and 5.7 bWAR per 162 games. But Tatis is still really good, and always has that ability to be great stashed in his hip pocket.

Win average: 85.5 (Last: 85.7, 11th)
In the playoffs: 43.2% (Last: 42.1%)
Champions: 1.0% (Last: 1.1%)

First-half storyline: One fast transition. In retrospect, we might have overreacted to the Cardinals’ offseason rhetoric about 2025 being about positioning for the front office transfer of power to Chaim Bloom. The Cardinals took a passive approach to player acquisition and caught plenty of heat for it. They also removed obstacles in front of a number of their in-house talents, and that has paid off in a big way so far this season.

First-half MVP: Sonny Gray (118 AXE, 1st on Cardinals, 76th in MLB). Like Milwaukee, the Cardinals have succeeded thanks to a depth of solid performances rather than any breakouts. Some of those solid performers are key to St. Louis’ future: Matthew Liberatore, Victor Scott II, Masyn Winn. But the veteran Gray, who might have been dealt if not for his contract’s no-trade clause, has led the way.

Win average: 84.4 (Last: 89.1, 7th)
In the playoffs: 35.5% (Last: 67.0%)
Champions: 1.2% (Last: 2.4%)

First-half storyline: Buster’s breakout followed by a bust-out? Under first-time exec Buster Posey, the Giants exploded out of the gate. Then, they bolstered a lineup light on power with the season’s biggest trade to date, bringing in the suddenly positionally flexible Rafael Devers. Yet, the Giants have since slumped, winning just five of Devers’ first 10 appearances with the team. Where that leaves Posey and the Giants is unclear, but it’s nothing a Devers power spree and a few wins wouldn’t fix.

First-half MVP: Logan Webb (126 AXE, 1st on Giants, 26th in MLB). Webb was already established as the closest thing to a durable, top-of-the-rotation starter as we can hope to get in today’s game. This season, he has amped up the run prevention as well, posting a career-high and NL-best 2.32 FIP while again leading the circuit in innings. Alas, on the heels of two straight top-10 Cy Young finishes, as of now, it looks like Webb will have to get even stingier if he is to overtake Paul Skenes and Zack Wheeler in the awards race.

Win average: 82.5 (Last: 79.0, 22nd)
In the playoffs: 19.4% (Last: 8.4%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 0.2%)

First-half storyline: Rambling rotation. The Reds’ game score winning percentage (.612) is the best in the National League and second overall behind the Yankees. This has happened despite Hunter Greene‘s injury and tepid debuts by exciting prospects Chase Petty and Chase Burns. Andrew Abbott has been as hot as any pitcher in baseball, and the trio of Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer and Nick Martinez has been consistently productive. This has a chance to be a very exciting group down the stretch.

First-half MVP: Elly De La Cruz (127 AXE, 1st on Reds, 25th in MLB). De La Cruz is on pace for 34 homers and 41 steals while soaring past 100 runs and 100 RBIs. His OPS+ has risen to 125 on the strength of improving strikeout rates. It kind of feels like he can do more, too. But that might always be the case for De La Cruz, no matter what his numbers look like, simply because he’s such a marvel to watch on the field.

Win average: 82.4 (Last: 81.2, 18th)
In the playoffs: 20.9% (Last: 16.1%)
Champions: 0.5% (Last: 0.4%)

First-half storyline: Not what we signed up for. The D-backs appeared positioned to possibly challenge the Dodgers in the NL West, thanks largely to a stacked starting rotation bolstered by the high-dollar signing of Corbin Burnes. Burnes’ season ended after 11 starts, while Zac Gallen, Brandon Pfaadt and Eduardo Rodriguez are on the wrong side of 5.00 ERAs. The bullpen, weakened by injuries to A.J. Puk and Justin Martinez, has been even worse. Too often, Arizona has had to outscore the opposition.

First-half MVP: Eugenio Suarez (124 AXE, 3rd on Diamondbacks, 37th in MLB). Suarez is a hair behind Corbin Carroll (126) and Ketel Marte (125) on the AXE leaderboard, but his potent power bat has perhaps been more crucial to Arizona’s ability to hang around .500. Carroll and Marte have given the Snakes about what they expected — which is considerable — but Suarez has outstripped his projection and helped to shore up shortfalls elsewhere on the roster. From 2021 to 2024, Suarez averaged 2.4 bWAR per season; this year, he’s already at 2.5.

Win average: 81.1 (Last: 79.6, 21st)
In the playoffs: 27.3% (Last: 18.4%)
Champions: 0.5% (Last: 0.3%)

First-half storyline: Complete lack of an attack. Two years after riding a dynamic offense to a championship, the Rangers have morphed into an all-pitch, no-hit team despite a lineup with many of the same players. And the positions that have turned over have tended to go to promising prospects such as Josh Jung (recently demoted), Wyatt Langford and Evan Carter. In 2023, the Rangers’ 4.77 home-scoring average ranked sixth in the majors. This season, their 3.76 mark ranks 27th.

First-half MVP: Jacob deGrom (128 AXE, 1st on Rangers, 20th in MLB). On the bright side, deGrom is back and he’s still very much Jacob deGrom … and seemingly getting better with each outing. In general, the rotation has been a bright spot for Texas, whose top three performers by AXE are deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Mahle.

Win average: 80.0 (Last: 79.8, 20th)
In the playoffs: 11.2% (Last: 12.6%)
Champions: 0.4% (Last: 0.4%)

First-half storyline: What happened? Last season, the Braves figured prominently into our preseason coverage when we wondered whether it was they or the Dodgers who would emerge as baseball’s power team. Once again, the forecasts were high on Atlanta’s chance to have a bounce-back season and return to the top of a competitive NL East. A couple of days ago, the Braves slipped behind the Marlins in the standings. When you look at an IL that includes Chris Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach, it’s a dispiriting season in Cobb County.

First-half MVP: Matt Olson (125 AXE, 1st on Braves, 34th in MLB). Olson hasn’t produced at the level he flashed in 2023, when he mashed 54 homers and put up 7.5 bWAR. But he has produced and he has also been there, which is more than you can say about most of Atlanta’s other key players. Olson still hasn’t missed a game since joining the Braves as Freddie Freeman‘s replacement in 2022.

Win average: 79.8 (Last: 80.0, 19th)
In the playoffs: 17.8% (Last: 20.3%)
Champions: 0.3% (Last: 0.5%)

First-half storyline: It’s not about who’s here, but who is not. When you look at the roster of the 2018 champion Red Sox and how many of the key players are still star-level players for other teams, this is going to cast a pall over Fenway Park until a new group emerges to win at a high level. Any hopes of that cloud lifting because of the passage of time were dashed when Boston traded Rafael Devers.

First-half MVP: Garrett Crochet (134 AXE, 1st on Red Sox, 11th in MLB). Crochet pitched this well last season for the White Sox, his first full season as a big league starting pitcher. But it wasn’t quite a full season because Chicago tamped down his usage in advance of dealing him for maximum return. Trading for Crochet for a valuable combination of prospects was a bit of a leap of faith by Craig Breslow. Well, you can quibble with a lot of things that have happened in Boston, but so far, the Crochet trade is not one of them.

Win average: 79.7 (Last: 87.2, 10th)
In the playoffs: 18.0% (Last: 68.8%)
Champions: 0.3% (Last: 2.9%)

First-half storyline: Close, but no cigar. The Twins are another team whose park-neutral runs and runs allowed paces are on track to meet forecasts. Their record, however, is not. Why? Look no further than the Twins’ 8-15 record in one-run games. An optimist would suggest that this should even out. The problem is that it’s probably already too late for the Twins in the division race, and they are but one of a legion of teams in the AL’s middle wondering if they are really playoff contenders.

First-half MVP: Byron Buxton (130 AXE, 1st on Twins, 16th in MLB). Buxton is on pace to play in 130 games. That might not sound too impressive, but if he were to get there, it would be the most games he has played in since 2017. A healthy (or mostly healthy) Buxton is something to behold. He has already topped his 2024 totals in homers and steals and is close in bWAR, even though he has appeared in only 69 games. (He played in 102 last season.) Let us all take a moment to knock on wood.

Win average: 77.3 (Last: 81.9, 16th)
In the playoffs: 8.5% (Last: 28.5%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.4%)

First-half storyline: Could really use Josh Naylor. The Guardians’ position player roster this season is dominated by below-replacement performances. You can understand the desire to open things up for power prospect Kyle Manzardo, who has been up and down. But Naylor was a foundational producer for a team that was a couple of wins shy of the World Series in 2024. The lineup needed him a lot more than the rotation needed Slade Cecconi, who has been fine over eight starts. You can’t help but wonder if Cleveland, owner of baseball’s oldest title drought, will ever stop pushing things down the line.

First-half MVP: Jose Ramirez (128 AXE, 1st on Guardians, 24th in MLB). Who else? Ramirez is on target to do what he does every year, across the board. His isolated power is down a touch, but Ramirez remains more than capable of going on a binge to clear that up. This is another season to boost Ramirez’s future Hall of Fame case.

Win average: 76.3 (Last: 73.2, 23rd)
In the playoffs: 6.2% (Last: 2.7%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

First-half storyline: Bittersweet surprise. The Angels are a mild surprise because they appeared, at various junctures, like a team about to slide back into the basement. But the 2025 Angels have been fairly resilient despite another Mike Trout injury and lack of superstar production, Ron Washington’s season-ending health issue and widespread bullpen woes, aside from closer Kenley Jansen. It’s to their credit that they’ve stayed close to .500, and there have been some positive developments on the roster. That doesn’t make them contenders.

First-half MVP: Yusei Kikuchi (117 AXE, 1st on Angels, 80th in MLB). The Angels’ rotation has been solid and a big reason the team has stayed competitive. The addition of Kikuchi has been the biggest upgrade. The 34-year-old lefty has mostly retained the gains he made after being traded from Toronto to Houston last season, save for an uptick in walks. He’s not an ace, but he has given the Halos a consistent presence in a rotation that, over the years, has lacked stability.

Win average: 76.2 (Last: 81.3, 17th)
In the playoffs: 5.9% (Last: 25.7%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last: 0.5%)

First-half storyline: Oh no, there’s no O. The Royals have been an above-average team in most areas of what helps a team win: defense, baserunning, starting rotation and bullpen. It has all been undermined by wretched hitting. Kansas City has averaged 3.77 runs per game on the road, ranking 25th. That’s bad! But it looks explosive compared with what the Royals have done at the K: 2.84 runs per game. That’s not only last in the majors, but it’s not even close to the second-worst mark (3.58 by Cleveland). If you watch the Royals regularly, hopefully you’ve been wearing a hat because otherwise watching this team hit has likely caused you to pull out all your hair.

First-half MVP: Bobby Witt Jr. (134 AXE, 1st on Royals, 12th in MLB). Witt has been terrific. He hasn’t been as terrific as he was in 2024, and somehow, he finished behind Jacob Wilson of the A’s in the All-Star voting. Witt is perhaps a victim of the standards he set in 2024. Witt is still on pace for 56 doubles, 43 steals and more than 7 bWAR. It’s a “down” season most players can only dream of, and it’s certainly not Witt’s fault the Royals’ offense has been so bad.

Win average: 71.8 (Last: 67.2, 26th)
In the playoffs: 0.3% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

First-half storyline: Evil rumors. Low-level buzz that maybe the Pirates should look to trade Paul Skenes didn’t come from the team, so you don’t want to bash Pittsburgh for that. But you kind of do because such suggestions should not be possible. They are only because it feels so unlikely that the Pirates will invest in building a contender around Skenes. But again: If you trade this guy during his second season, what are you building for? Anyway, it hasn’t happened. Skenes has been great; the team has not.

First-half MVP: Paul Skenes (137 AXE, 1st on Pirates, 9th in MLB). Skenes is 41 starts into his career, and his ERA remains under two: 1.99, over 244 innings. His ERA+ is 213. It’s the best ever given a minimum career total of 41 starts. Sure, Skenes might hit rough patches and the number would go up. But he’s got a lot of room for error: second best is Kodai Senga (160 over 43 starts) and third is Jacob deGrom (157 over 235 starts).

Win average: 71.1 (Last: 69.4, 25th)
In the playoffs: 0.7% (Last: 0.6%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

First-half storyline: Thud. Our last preseason Stock Watch pegged the Orioles at 88 wins with a 65% shot at returning to the postseason. That outlook has changed.

First-half MVP: Gunnar Henderson (119 AXE, 1st on Orioles, 70th in MLB). That Henderson would top the Orioles’ AXE leaderboard is no surprise. That he would do so with a 119 mark certainly is — last season, he finished at an MVP-like 150. Henderson has trended upward after a bad April, and there’s nothing really to worry about. Still, his step back is emblematic of Baltimore’s mystifyingly lost season.

Win average: 69.7 (Last: 62.4, 28th)
In the playoffs: 0.1% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

First-half storyline: Bobbing back to the surface. There certainly was no particular reason to think the Marlins would be interesting this season, beyond what might possibly happen around the trade deadline with getting-better-fast starter Sandy Alcantara. Give the Fish and first-year manager Clayton McCullough credit, though, because the Marlins enter our July Stock Watch as one of baseball’s hottest teams. In fact, if you go to windows of “past 50 games,” Miami has split those games, better than division mates Atlanta and Washington, a game worse than the Mets and just four behind the Phillies. At the very least, you can say that despite a bad start and zero expectations, Miami has not thrown in the towel.

First-half MVP: Kyle Stowers (114 AXE, 2nd on Marlins, 108th in MLB). Stowers is behind Otto Lopez (116 AXE) for the Marlins, but we’ll give him a nod for his huge strides at the plate. The former Orioles prospect entered the season with a career slash line of .208/.268/.332 over 117 games. This season, he’s at .286/.360/.520 in 80 games, upping his homer total from six to 21 and more than doubling his RBI count. He’s not a star, but he has been a key part of a team that has been kind of fun to watch lately.

Win average: 68.3 (Last: 72.4, 24th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.7%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

First-half storyline: How long is this going to take? If you zero in on the player level, there is plenty on the Nationals’ roster you can point to as a positive sign: James Wood‘s ascension, the play of CJ Abrams and MacKenzie Gore, the presence of touted prospects Dylan Crews and Brady House. The bottom line is that a team that hasn’t sniffed .500 since winning the 2019 championship has a winning percentage worse than what it posted in each of the past two seasons. The Nationals need to make a leap, sooner rather than later.

First-half MVP: James Wood (135 AXE, 1st on Nationals, 10th in MLB). Wood is the real deal, a hyped prospect who manifested his ability as soon as he hit the majors. He’s 165 games in at this point and owns a 144 OPS+, 30 homers, 104 RBIs and 26 steals. His power is somehow both explosive and effortless, and his plate discipline is outstanding for such a young slugger. It should only get better from here.

Win average: 65.9 (Last: 64.3, 27th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.1%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

First-half storyline: Is it the park or the pitcher? The Athletics teased us with becoming an exciting sleeper wild-card contender. Then they lapsed into a horrifying slump, a 3-24 disaster during which the staff ERA was 7.79. That would be bad in slow-pitch softball. So much for contention. The Athletics have bounced back to an extent, but their season ERA is 5.67, ahead of only the Rockies. And while Sacramento has not been a hospitable place for the pitchers, the A’s can take solace in the fact that their road ERA is also well over five. It’s just not a good pitching staff.

First-half MVP: Jacob Wilson (123 AXE, 1st on Athletics, 44th in MLB). Wilson has fallen off after an exhilarating start that had his batting average at .372 through June 8. But he’s still a gas to watch, and apparently a lot of people have because Wilson will start at shortstop for the AL in the All-Star Game. As good as Wilson has been at the plate so far in the majors, his defensive metrics have been well in the red. Which kind of makes him the bizarro version of his father, Jack.

Win average: 56.2 (Last: 58.2, 29th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

First-half storyline: Roster turnover. GM Chris Getz has been a transaction lover as a lead exec, and after the pain of the initial tear-down period, things are starting to feel downright coherent. Some of the prospects have played well in the majors, such as Chase Meidroth and Kyle Teel. The starting rotation has become above average, and that position group has a gaggle of high-upside prospects on the way. The White Sox still lose a lot of games, and the bullpen saves leader is a three-way tie with two. But things have grown considerably less dim than they were at this time last year. Granted, that’s a low bar, but it could be worse.

First-half MVP: Adrian Houser (112 AXE, 1st on White Sox, 132nd in MLB). Houser is our one first-half MVP who didn’t start the season with his team. But he has put up a 1.90 ERA over seven starts after being released by Texas in May. In doing so, he has become someone who might generate interest at the trade deadline. In that way, he’s an avatar for what the White Sox’s modus operandi is at this point: talent accumulation, in every way you can do it.

Win average: 41.8 (Last: 40.8, 30th)
In the playoffs: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)
Champions: 0.0% (Last: 0.0%)

First-half storyline: Historic ineptitude. We wish we could put it nicer than that, but the Rockies are on pace to win 36 games and post a run differential of minus-422. And this isn’t a team following any kind of obvious rebuilding scheme, beyond the reality that when you’re this bad, you are by definition rebuilding. Somehow, the fact that the Rockies are still drawing well at the gate makes this even worse. It’s like a Monty Python sketch.

First-half MVP: Hunter Goodman (116 AXE, 1st on Rockies, 94th in MLB). No snark needed here — Goodman has been pretty solid and, at 25, he is young enough that maybe the gains are legit. The best part of Goodman’s first half is that his numbers are actually a lot better away from Coors: .925 road OPS; .790 at home. He’s been good.

Sports

From a Cy Young winner to an All-Star closer: One player every MLB team should trade for (or away) this July

Published

14 hours ago

July 4, 2025

admin

From a Cy Young winner to an All-Star closer: One player every MLB team should trade for (or away) this July

David SchoenfieldJul 2, 2025, 07:00 AM ET
Close
- Covers MLB for ESPN.com
- Former deputy editor of Page 2
- Been with ESPN.com since 1995

This year’s MLB trade deadline is going to be complicated. So many teams are currently in the playoff race — only eight are more than five games out of a wild card — that it might make for a slow deadline if all those clubs remain in contention by the end of July.

One thing is clear, however: The Arizona Diamondbacks are the fulcrum of this deadline, with the ability to make it a lot more interesting if they decide to trade away their players heading into free agency — a group that includes slugging third baseman Eugenio Suarez, starters Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen, .300-hitting first baseman Josh Naylor and rejuvenated closer Shelby Miller.

While there’s always a desire for ownership and the front office to go for it and not sell out a clubhouse that has worked hard to get into the playoff chase — let alone sell out the fans who have supported the team — that’s not always possible.

This past weekend’s sweep at the hands of the Miami Marlins was a crushing three games and decreased their playoff odds by about 11 percentage points, to under 20%. Factoring into Arizona’s ultimate thought process: Corbin Burnes is done for the season following Tommy John surgery, and with Gallen continuing to struggle with a 5.45 ERA, the rotation just hasn’t been competitive. A run to the postseason feels unlikely, and a run through October even less so.

As July kicks off, we present our annual list of one player every team should trade for (or away) before the July 31 deadline. And yes, we have the Diamondbacks saying goodbye to a number of their impending free agents. Let’s start with them.

Jump to team:

American League
ATH | BAL | BOS | CHW | CLE
DET | HOU | KC | LAA | MIN
NYY | SEA | TB | TEX | TOR

National League
ARI | ATL | CHC | CIN | COL
LAD | MIA | MIL | NYM | PHI
PIT | SD | SF | STL | WSH

Arizona Diamondbacks: Trade away Eugenio Suarez

In a deadline that lacks a marquee superstar — remember that the biggest names of the past two deadlines, Shohei Ohtani in 2023 and Garrett Crochet in 2024, weren’t traded anyway — Suarez might be the best player who gets traded. He’s having a huge power season, hitting .254/.324/.564 with 26 home runs, recently belting his 300th home run to cement his underrated career. His strikeout rate is the lowest it’s been since 2018 as he has made a concerted effort to swing a little more often early in the count. It’s paid off. The Diamondbacks also have top prospect Jordan Lawlar ready in the minors to take over at third. He’s a natural shortstop, but Geraldo Perdomo has locked down that position and Lawlar’s bat should still play at third.

There are several contenders in need of an upgrade at third base, including the Cubs and Reds, but the Tigers and Mariners might have the edge in prospect depth to make the deal. The Tigers will likely make multiple moves — no doubt, adding a bullpen arm at a minimum — and while the lineup has shown surprising depth, adding Suarez to hit between lefties Kerry Carpenter and Riley Greene feels like the perfect fit while allowing Zach McKinstry to return to his utility role. Suarez would also hedge against some of the possible regression from the likes of McKinstry, Javier Baez, Gleyber Torres and Spencer Torkelson, who have performed much better than last season.

The Mariners have been playing Miles Mastrobuoni and rookie Ben Williamson at third base. They chip in an occasional single but have combined for just two home runs in over 300 at-bats. With Cal Raleigh accounting for a third of the Mariners’ home runs — granted, he has hit a lot of them — Suarez would add a much-needed cleanup hitter to bat behind Raleigh. Oh, and it would rectify the big mistake president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto made when he traded Suarez to Arizona after the 2023 season in a cost-cutting move.

Kelly is the type of pitcher who used to be called a bulldog. He battles, he’s tough, and he gets the most out of an arsenal that features a pedestrian 92 mph fastball. Every team would love to have him in its rotation and, for what it’s worth, he was excellent in the 2023 postseason for Arizona when he posted a 2.25 ERA across four starts. He had a nine-run blowup in his second outing of 2025 but is pitching better than ever since then with a 2.83 ERA and more strikeouts than innings pitched.

The Cardinals continue to exceed expectations, and Kelly’s $7 million contract would be especially attractive to them — or any team looking for a starter at an affordable rate, for that matter. As for the need: The Cardinals rank in the middle of the pack in the majors in rotation ERA, but Erick Fedde, Andre Pallante and Miles Mikolas are averaging fewer than 6.5 strikeouts per nine. (St. Louis is 26th in rotation strikeout rate.) Kelly would give them a better strikeout pitcher to go alongside Sonny Gray to head a potential playoff rotation.

The Rangers have struggled to score runs — 3.77 per game, nearly two fewer runs per game than 2023 — and while they’re looking up at the wild-card leaders, they don’t want to give up on a season where they have Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Mahle dominating on the mound (although Mahle is out with shoulder fatigue). The Rangers rank 22nd in the majors in OPS at first base and last at DH, so even factoring in this season’s odd low-run environment at Globe Life Field, Naylor is a solution for either position, especially considering their DHs this past week included light-hitting journeyman Sam Haggerty and whichever catcher wasn’t starting.

Alcantara is signed for $17.3 million in 2026 with a $21 million team option for 2027, so even though his season stats look scary — 4-8, 6.98 ERA — the 2022 Cy Young winner still fits as a long-term option for a trade partner. More importantly, the results were at least better in June with a 4.34 ERA and .689 OPS allowed, although there are still concerns about his low swing-and-miss rate despite a fastball averaging 97.3 mph.

The Marlins don’t have to trade him, of course, and given how bad their rotation has been — only the Rockies have a worse ERA — you can argue that trading him will only open a hole they’ll have to fill for next season anyway. They just went 6-0 on their road trip, and if they play well over the next month, it becomes less likely they trade Alcantara, with the view that he’ll be a necessary part of a potentially better team in 2026. It all comes down to the prospect haul, however, and Alcantara’s recent performance might be enough to swing a deal.

The Cubs feel like the perfect match for multiple reasons. Their rotations ranks 22nd in ERA and 17th in innings, so they’re getting neither great production nor enough lengthy outings from their starters. The bullpen has held up to the stress so far with the second-best ERA in the majors, but acquiring Alcantara would add depth behind Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga, the team’s only reliable starters.

A question the Cubs will have to evaluate: Alcantara has a higher-than-average ground ball rate, so will having Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner behind him help? That seems logical, but the Marlins have allowed a slightly lower average on ground balls this season than the Cubs, so it’s probably a negligible difference. The Cubs do have the better overall defense thanks to their outfield, but Alcantara has not been pitching into bad luck (indeed, his actual batting average allowed of .266 is lower than his expected average of .280).

Astros general manager Dana Brown just talked about looking for a left-handed bat to help his right-heavy lineup, but the Astros have a track record for making big pitching moves like this at the deadline: Justin Verlander in 2017, Zack Greinke in 2019 and Verlander again in 2023. The one-two punch of Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez is as good as it gets, but the rotation is currently counting on unheralded rookies Colton Gordon and Brandon Walter, who have been pleasant surprises and pounding the strike zone (a combined 68 strikeouts and seven walks in 71⅓ innings) but might be over their heads right now. With Valdez heading to free agency, Alcantara would also provide insurance if they lose Valdez in the offseason.

It’s starting to look a little desperate in Kansas City. The Royals are only 4½ games out of the third wild card, but they have six teams to climb over, Jac Caglianone has failed to ignite the offense, and they went 8-17 in June. They’ll need a major Bobby Witt Jr. heater just to get close by the trade deadline. The emergence of Kris Bubic as a likely All-Star pitcher plus rookie Noah Cameron give the Royals some rotation depth to deal from, and Lugo remains an extremely attractive trade option, as he’s signed through at least next year (he owns a player option for 2027) and has a 2.74 ERA in 2025. Aside from Caglianone, the Royals’ system lacks impact hitters in the upper minors. Trading Lugo gives them the chance to help their offense for the future.

It’s hard to believe the Dodgers might need another starting pitcher after all the money they’ve invested in their rotation, but we still don’t know the seasonlong prognosis for Tyler Glasnow, Blake Snell and Roki Sasaki, although Glasnow has at least started a rehab assignment in Triple-A. The one thing we do know is the Dodgers have a system loaded with hitting prospects that might make them the team most capable of making this trade — if they want to do it.

The Blue Jays are currently in the second wild-card spot, despite a scuffling rotation that ranks 26th in ERA. They did just get Max Scherzer back, but there’s no way of knowing what he’ll bring, plus Chris Bassitt and Scherzer will be free agents — so they’ll be looking for pitching help in the offseason anyway. Lugo’s contract is a more attractive option than gambling on a high-level free agent, even if it costs a team some good prospects.

The Guardians were 31-26 at the end of May even though they had been outscored by 18 runs, but June was a rough go, with a 9-16 record and minus-29 run differential, dropping them under .500. Clase is signed through 2028, with his salary topping out at $10 million the final two years, making him a bargain for an elite closer.

Is he still elite, though? He’s allowing a .289 average after batters hit just .154 against him in 2024, and while his location was certainly off a bit in April, he also had a lot of BABIP bad luck. His ground ball rate is significantly down from where it once was (as high as 68% in 2021, down to 45% this season), but he has still surrendered just one home run. The Cleveland bullpen hasn’t been as dominant as last season but it’s still deep, and Cade Smith has been their best reliever, so he’s ready to take over as the closer. Given the potential return for Clase — and hedging against the possibility that he could be on the decline — this might be the best chance for the Guardians to get a big haul for him.

When I flipped on the Phillies-Braves game Saturday, the score was 1-1 in the seventh inning with the bases loaded as Philly’s Jordan Romano pitched to Atlanta’s Sean Murphy. The broadcast flashed a graphic showing the Braves were the only team without a grand slam this season. First pitch: Boom. The Phillies need bullpen help and they need to win now. This has all the markings of a Dave Dombrowski deal.

The Orioles went 16-11 in June and are playing a little better, so there might be some hope … OK, sorry, Orioles fans. You’re still seven games out of the final wild-card spot with playoff odds hovering below 4%. A playoff run is unlikely given their rotation, and with up to 11 impending free agents after this season, if you count the three players on club options, general manager Mike Elias could make a slew of deals to add prospect depth to the organization. It’s not the way the Orioles expected the season to go, but this is the rare case where punting on the year makes sense.

O’Hearn is probably the best of the group. They got O’Hearn from the Royals and milked three excellent seasons out of him as a platoon DH/1B/RF, and with so many teams starving for offense, his ability to hit right-handers (.312/.398/.518) makes him one of the best bats available.

You could find a half-dozen teams where O’Hearn fits, but let’s go with the Giants, who rank last in the majors in OPS at first base, with an average below .200 and just five home runs. They also rank in the bottom third of the majors in OPS versus right-handed pitching, so adding O’Hearn on top of Rafael Devers would give San Francisco a second middle-of-the-order lefty bat. President of baseball operations Buster Posey has already shown his cards with the Devers deal: He’s all-in, so no time to stop now.

The Braves beat the Mets in five out of seven games in June to spark some comeback talk, but they remain eight games under .500, one of five NL teams that are more than five games out of the final wild card. There’s still time, and FanGraphs gives them 23% playoff odds, but the offense actually had its worst month of the season in June. It’s hard to wave the white flag with Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach and Spencer Strider leading the rotation and Ronald Acuna Jr. red-hot since his return, but the Braves will need a huge July in order to be contenders. If they don’t get that, Ozuna is the logical trade candidate, as he heads into free agency and has a .369 OBP (although he had a miserable June with a .550 OPS and just two home runs).

The Padres have used their DH slot to give Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts and others an occasional day off from the field, but it hasn’t worked, with the Padres ranking near the bottom of MLB in OPS at DH. Ozuna’s June slump is a concern, but his OBP would be the best on the team and help boost an offense that ranks in the bottom third in the NL in runs per game.

That got very Mets-like in a hurry. The Mets have gone 3-14 since June 13, which includes an embarrassing three-game sweep to the Pirates this past weekend when they were outscored 30-4. It prompted owner Steve Cohen to post, “Tough stretch, no sugarcoating it. I didn’t see it coming.” Didn’t see it coming? These are the Mets! Something always happens.

The Mets should get some of their injured starters back soon, and while the lineup has some soft spots, it doesn’t have any must-need upgrades — center field and catcher are their weakest spots, but Tyrone Taylor is an excellent defender and … well, good luck at catcher. So that leaves the bullpen, which is strong in the ninth inning with Edwin Diaz but a little shaky elsewhere, especially as manager Carlos Mendoza ran Huascar Brazoban into the ground. New York should think big here. Bautista has two more years of team control on a low salary, so Baltimore could get a lot in return — and the Mets happen to be deep in starting pitching prospects, which is exactly what the Orioles need.

Bednar is a two-time All-Star closer who struggled in 2024 (5.77 ERA) and then lost two games and blew a save in his first three outings of 2025, but he has been rolling since then with a 1.95 ERA and — most impressively — a 37.4% strikeout rate as his curveball/splitter combo are once again wipeout pitches. He’s making $5.9 million this year and is under team control for another season, but the Pirates aren’t going anywhere in the standings anytime soon and have a closer-in-waiting in Dennis Santana.

After a mediocre first month, the Rays have been as good as any team in baseball since May 1: 33-21, tied for the third-best record (just one fewer win than the Tigers and two fewer than the Astros) and with the best run differential at plus-61. Only the Dodgers have scored more runs since May 1, and while the Rays are getting a slight offensive boost from Steinbrenner Field, pitching looks like the way to go at the deadline The rotation has been homer-prone — again, related to Steinbrenner Field — but the bullpen has lacked its usual depth and ranks 23rd in win probability added. Adding Bednar — the salary shouldn’t be too steep, even for the Rays — and moving Pete Fairbanks into the setup role works.

Some people dislike going to the dentist or detest boiled eggs or loathe oatmeal raisin cookies. The Rockies? They hate to make trades. And they especially are not fans of trading homegrown players like McMahon. But it’s time. He isn’t having his best season at .219/.321/.392, numbers that look even worse when factoring in Coors Field, but he’s one of the best defensive third basemen in the game and there are some things to like in his metrics, including an 89th percentile walk rate and 83rd percentile bat speed. He’s signed through 2027 at a reasonable $16 million each of the next two seasons, given his high floor as a plus defender with 20-homer output.

The Reds should absolutely be looking to add — and third base has been a black hole all season, with Reds third basemen ranking near the bottom of the majors in OPS. They released Jeimer Candelario, even though he’s under contract for $16 million this year and another $16 million in 2026, but the ongoing roulette spin to see who starts from Santiago Espinal, Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Gavin Lux isn’t a solution. The Reds also have a couple of third-base prospects in Sal Stewart and Cam Collier that they could offer in return. It’s just a matter of them absorbing more salary on top of Candelario’s sunken cost.

The Twins are another team that will need a good July to determine their trading fate. However, other than the 13-game winning streak in early May, they haven’t been that good — and they went 9-18 in June as their pitching got absolutely destroyed (worst ERA in the majors). That doesn’t bode well for the second half. Castro is heading to free agency and has value as someone who can play anywhere; he has started games at three infield positions, both outfield corners and played regularly in center field last season. His OPS+ is above average for the third straight season, so he’ll provide some solid offense as well.

OK, this wouldn’t be the most dramatic of moves for the Yankees, and they could certainly be in the mix for Eugenio Suarez. (Jazz Chisholm Jr. has been playing third of late but would slide over to second.) They don’t really have any glaring holes, at least if Marcus Stroman can plug the back of the rotation, but their offense has been gradually sliding: .829 OPS in April, .792 in May, .719 in June. Castro’s versatility is key: He could play third or he could play the outfield. With Trent Grisham and Paul Goldschmidt tailing off from their hot starts, Castro and Cody Bellinger would give manager Aaron Boone all kinds of lineup flexibility if those two continue to struggle.

The Angels are surprisingly — shockingly? — hanging around .500. They’re hitting .229 as a team with an OBP under .300 and they rank in the bottom half of the majors in rotation ERA and bullpen win probability added. In other words, they’re not especially good at anything. Yet here they are, although they’ll have to do it without manager Ron Washington, who is on medical leave the rest of the season. They could go in any direction, but rotation help probably makes the most sense. Baltimore’s Morton is a free agent after this season, and while the 41-year-old looked ready for retirement after an awful first six weeks, he has a 2.90 ERA over his past six starts.

There has been speculation that the Brewers might be willing to trade Freddy Peralta, similar to when they traded Josh Hader in 2022 when they were in the playoff race and Hader had a year-plus left of team control. That move backfired when the Brewers missed the playoffs, the only year they didn’t make it between 2018 and 2024. Trading Peralta might be an ever bigger on-field and PR disaster — and we can’t advocate trading your best pitcher. Instead, we have the Brewers adding. Given their budget, it probably won’t be a big move for a big contract, so Miller and his $1 million salary is the logical help for a bullpen that ranks in the bottom third of the majors in ERA.

Let’s see … since trading Rafael Devers, the Red Sox have gone 6-8. Maybe they won’t be better the rest of the season without him. They could look to add a starting pitcher if they think they’ll remain in contention or go crazy on top of the Devers trade and deal one of their outfielders (Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu) with fellow outfielder Roman Anthony now in the majors. Or maybe they even see what they can get for Alex Bregman, who can opt out of his contract after the season but has said he’s open to extension talks.

The less exciting route: trading Buehler, if anyone wants him. He’s 5-6 with a 6.45 ERA, after going 1-6 with a 5.38 ERA last season with the Dodgers. He did have two good — albeit short — starts in the postseason for L.A., so that’s what a team would be trading for, banking on big-game Buehler delivering some clutch performances. Some team might take the chance, although the Red Sox might have to eat some of his remaining salary.

Since the first day of spring training, Luis Robert Jr.’s name has rightfully been at the top of Chicago’s potential trade list, but it’s probably time to close the door on that option. He has been even worse than last season, hitting .185/.270/.313, and just landed on the injured list with a hamstring strain. His defense metrics remain strong, so a team desperate for a center fielder might take a chance if the hammy heals quickly, but the White Sox won’t want to give him away with his trade value at rock bottom.

The better move is to trade Houser — and the sooner the better, to cash in on his hot run. He’s 3-2 with a 1.91 ERA and 2.2 WAR in seven starts. The 32-year-old is throwing both his curveball and changeup about twice as often as in the past, so maybe there is some real improvement going on, but his strikeout rate remains low at 18.1% and he had a 5.03 ERA in Triple-A with the Rangers before the White Sox picked him up. Most teams need pitching depth and Houser could be a serviceable back-end starter or swingman — and maybe even something better.

The Nationals have several players heading to free agency that they might look to deal, including closer Kyle Finnegan and utility man Amed Rosario, although none will bring back a huge return. Soroka might be the most enticing to other teams. He has been starting for the Nationals and his 4.70 ERA in 11 games doesn’t impress, but he ranks in the 76th percentile in strikeout rate and 79th percentile in walk rate while holding batters to a .210 average. He might be a better fit as a reliever. Last season with the White Sox he fanned 60 in 36 innings out of the bullpen, so you could see a team trading for him and making him a key part of its bullpen.

The A’s don’t really have much to deal, although there will be the prerequisite Mason Miller rumors. Luis Severino was perhaps a possibility, but he has been roughed up in four of his past six starts (.932 OPS in June with 31 runs allowed in 32⅔ innings), so his trade value has plummeted, especially considering his contract has another two years. So that leaves … Urias? He’s a journeyman at this point, one who has been playing second base regularly of late, can play some third and will slug the occasional home run. He fits best as a bench player for a contender.

'Storybook stuff': Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series

Sports3 years ago

‘Storybook stuff’: Inside the night Bryce Harper sent the Phillies to the World Series

Story injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game

Sports1 year ago

Story injured on diving stop, exits Red Sox game

Game 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history

Sports2 years ago

Game 1 of WS least-watched in recorded history

MLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball's top 100 players

Sports2 years ago

MLB Rank 2023: Ranking baseball’s top 100 players

Sports4 years ago

Team Europe easily wins 4th straight Laver Cup

Japan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea

Environment2 years ago

Japan and South Korea have a lot at stake in a free and open South China Sea

Button battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut

Sports2 years ago

Button battles heat exhaustion in NASCAR debut

Game-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike

Environment2 years ago

Game-changing Lectric XPedition launched as affordable electric cargo bike

News IO

With Eli Drinkwitz at the helm, Missouri begins to see itself differently

With Eli Drinkwitz at the helm, Missouri begins to see itself differently

More Videos

Sports

How every five-star college football recruit fits at his new school

Sports

Judge, Ohtani and … Ernie Clement? First-half MVPs and playoff odds for all 30 MLB teams

Sports

From a Cy Young winner to an All-Star closer: One player every MLB team should trade for (or away) this July

Arizona Diamondbacks: Trade away Eugenio Suarez

Trending

News IO

With Eli Drinkwitz at the helm, Missouri begins to see itself differently

With Eli Drinkwitz at the helm, Missouri begins to see itself differently

More Videos

You may like

Sports

How every five-star college football recruit fits at his new school

Sports

Judge, Ohtani and … Ernie Clement? First-half MVPs and playoff odds for all 30 MLB teams

Sports

From a Cy Young winner to an All-Star closer: One player every MLB team should trade for (or away) this July

Arizona Diamondbacks: Trade away Eugenio Suarez

Trending