Increased funding for social housing is needed to meet ambitious government building targets, according to experts.
Representatives of England’s housing associations estimate they need funding for affordable homes to be nearly doubled to £4.6bn a year alongside other funding and policy measures.
Ahead of this week’s budget, the Treasury has teased a £500m boost to the current affordable homes programme, which is currently under target and out of funds.
This will bring average spending on the programme, which ends in 2026, to around £2.5bn a year across its five-year total run.
Responding to the announcement, the National Housing Federation said it welcomed the “vital” short-term top-up.
But the sector will have to wait until the spring for clarity on future funding arrangements.
In a letter obtained by Sky News, representatives of the Chartered Institute for Housing, the National Housing Federation, and homelessness charities Crisis and Shelter warn Rachel Reeves that without “significant new investment” in social housing the government’s long-term housing plans will fail.
They have each made their own funding recommendations to the chancellor and agree that “ambitious” public investment is essential because the private sector can’t meet the building target alone.
“While the government’s 1.5 million homes target is warmly supported, our organisations have emphasised that this can only be achieved via a major increase in output by both the private and social housing sectors,” the letter states.
It cites a recent report by Savills suggesting the government will fall short of its target by almost a third without boosting the social sector and supporting first-time buyers.
The National Housing Federation estimates that housing associations have the capacity to contribute 200,000 social homes towards the government’s overall building target but estimates this will require a funding package of £6.6bn a year from the next spending review.
That’s £4.6bn to build social housing plus an additional £2bn a year required to cover increasingly expensive building upgrades and maintenance costs, which have sucked money out of current budgets.
This would be a major increase on current spending and doesn’t include other potential costs for the government like the recently announced Brownfield Land Fund.
But in historic terms, it’s a small fraction of what has been invested previously.
Growing pressure on housing system
In 1976, housebuilding accounted for almost all government housing spending, at £22.7bn in inflation-adjusted prices.
This was around the last time England built homes at anything like the scale now being proposed, but back then nearly half of housebuilding was funded by government directly.
Since then, building has been left increasingly to the private sector and the balance in building vs benefits spending has reversed. In 2022, spending on building was down to £3.9bn a year, overshadowed by a £28.6bn benefits bill to support people through various types of housing subsidies.
Shifting spending away from building towards benefits can work when there is enough housing supply, as these subsidies can be more flexible to people’s changing housing circumstances.
But soaring spending on benefits in recent years is symptomatic of growing pressure on the housing system.
Despite attempts to control expenditure through cuts and benefit freezes under the previous government, a lack of available affordable housing has meant spending has repeatedly surpassed official forecasts.
Shrinking social housing sector
A record 117,000 homeless households are now in temporary accommodation, while the social housing waiting list has grown to 1.6 million in England, driven by rising housing costs while social housing stock has been diminished by a decrease in new building combined with right to buy sell-offs.
The proportion of social houses has reached a new low, nearly halving in the past 50 years from 28% of housing stock in 1973 to 16% by 2023.
Gavin Smart, chief executive of the Chartered Institute of Housing, told Sky News: ”We completely support the government’s goal of building 1.5 million homes.
“But that goal will be missed without supporting investment by the government.
“Boosting the supply of social rented housing is critical to tackle homelessness, enabling local authorities to move people more rapidly out of expensive temporary accommodation and reduce these costs that are currently crippling public finances. We need a sustainable housing system that supports a vibrant economy.”
In response to the letter, the Ministry for Housing Communities and Local Government said it remains committed to fixing the housing crisis and to targets, including “the biggest increase in social and affordable housebuilding in a generation”.
A spokesperson said: “We will set out details of future government investment in social and affordable housing at the next spending review, so social housing providers can plan for the future and help us to achieve this.”
It remains to be seen how much this future investment may be, with the generational increase suggested starting from a low base.
Bristol embodies the housing crisis
Bristol is at the forefront of England’s housing crisis. At 49% of income, average rents are higher compared to earnings than anywhere else in the country, up from 41% in 2015. House prices have risen to nine times average earnings over the same period.
While building more homes for the private market is welcomed by the local sector, they stress that there needs to be buyers for them.
Estate agent Sean McCarthy, land and new homes director at C J Hole, told Sky News: “The change in interest rates has impacted a lot of the buying power of purchasers, especially first-time buyers, and has definitely taken some buyers out of the market.
“That’s probably been one of our biggest challenges on the new homes market, certainly in the last 12 months.
“More housing is great, but we also need more housing at an affordable level so people can get on the ladder. And any assistance with regards to a government-backed incentive that would enable people to get out of renting and into homeownership would be very welcomed by us.”
Meanwhile, the social housing waiting list in Bristol has increased by nearly 13,000 households since 2015.
Sky News met nurse and travel agent Esther Umambo, a single parent to four-year-old daughter Annabelle.
They have been waiting for social housing for four years, since Annabelle was born, but Esther says she holds out little hope of securing a tenancy while the number of people in need continues to grow.
“There’s loads and loads of people in front of us. I think a lot of people are in the same situation. Single parents, but also couples,” she said.
Bristol has one of the largest social housing waiting lists in the country for its population size, with now more than 20,000 households waiting for accommodation.
“Rent has increased massively over the past five years. It’s very difficult to afford, I came into Bristol about 15 years ago and the rent is just going up and up.”
Rent for her one-bedroom flat is £1,200, and she gets by for now by juggling two jobs and relying on Universal Credit. But she and her daughter share a bedroom, and there will come a point soon where this is no longer viable.
“We manage at the moment. I consider myself lucky to be honest, just by being able to work two jobs. Some people are not able to work. But as she grows up, she needs her own room as well,” she explained.
It leaves her feeling frustrated at the situation. She said: “They need to build housing that is affordable for people like me. I’m just a normal person, but the rent can’t keep going up and up and up. I mean, who’s going to be able to afford to live in Bristol in the next 10 years?”
Ed Kehoe has been homeless for five years in Bristol, moving from “pillar to post” while he has grappled with mental health and addiction struggles. For now, he has been placed in temporary accommodation while he awaits more permanent housing, but it’s not easy.
“The system is not working. We’ve got a massive, massive homeless problem in this city. And people are not allocated to the correct property and the correct services,” he said.
“It’s really difficult. It’s harsh out there, you know, people are ending up on the streets because of it. The system needs to change.”
Targets are ‘too crude’
Bristol is an example of an urban area with an acute housing crisis where proposed housing targets have, counterintuitively, been downgraded.
They’ve been revised from 3,400 additional homes a year down to a proposed 3,000. This is still a larger number than has been achieved in recent years however, which was around 1,800 additional homes a year from 2021 to 2023.
The government has reinstated mandatory building targets for local authorities, with a new formula devised to calculate how many homes each area should be aiming towards. This has shifted focus away from urban areas and puts more building pressure on the north of England.
Targets have been put forward for consultation with local authorities in proposed reforms to the National Planning Policy Framework. These targets are not an entirely new concept but had been scrapped by Michael Gove under the previous Conservative government.
Other areas have had large uplifts in their building targets. In Westmorland and Furness in the North West, for example, where targets have been increased by 530% from current targets and 341% of current building rates with an ask to add 1,430 new homes per year. However, data suggests that this already among the most affordable areas in England, with rents at 21% compared to average incomes.
The maps below show how new targets relate to housing affordability and social housing waiting lists in England.
The areas with the highest housing costs and greatest demand for social housing waiting lists on the left, are not the areas with the biggest uplift in building targets, shown on the right.
“There are issues around the targets. I think they’re too crude,” said Glen Bramley, Professor of Urban Studies at Heriot-Watt University.
“They are too high for London, given actual experience and acceptable standards for density and greenspace, and also too high in some of the economically weaker parts of the north of England where there isn’t going to be enough buyers who can buy market housing at a viable level for private developers to be that interested,” he explained.
This can lead to issues with poor planning and haphazard development where small numbers of homes are completed “miles away” from services or adequate infrastructure.
“Some of the targets for the most prosperous areas where demand is greatest, where the labour market is very tight, and where there are real affordability problems could be more ambitious,” he added, including areas across the south which are already well served by transport and other infrastructure.
Builders can only build if buyers can buy
The addition of 1.5 million homes, equivalent to 300,000 a year, would be unrivalled in historic terms.
Even when housebuilding peaked at over 350,000 in 1968, high rates of demolition meant that net additions were below 200,000.
“The new government’s approach on planning is very positive thus far,” said Steve Turner, executive director of the Home Builders Federation (HBF), which represents private housebuilders in England.
“There’s a clear commitment to deliver more homes and, as we’ve seen on the planning side, to take difficult policy decisions that the industry wholeheartedly welcomes.”
Roadblocks to success
These measures include the reintroduction of housing targets for local authorities and tackling the thorny issue of building on England’s greenbelt by proposing development on poor quality or previously developed land, newly defined as the ‘grey belt’.
But while most of the policy announcements so far have been focussed on unblocking the planning constraints which have been blamed for England’s sluggish housebuilding in recent years, there are a number of other potential roadblocks to success.
“While the planning reforms are very helpful, they don’t address the demand side of the equation,” a senior executive of one of England’s largest private housing developers told Sky News.
For commercial sensitivity reasons, he has requested to remain anonymous.
“We know the biggest driver of demand for new housing is affordability. With mortgage rates where they are, the cost of mortgages for new home buyers and first-time buyers is high and therefore that is limiting demand for new homes,” he added.
“Recent trading statements from the biggest housebuilders show a drop in the number of active building sites as a result. The number of housing completions is actually set to drop over the next couple of years. So, in terms of delivering a significant increase in output, they’re starting from a low base.”
Plan for mortgage guarantee scheme
The government has proposed a mortgage guarantee scheme but there are no current plans for buyer support schemes like Help to Buy, which have been controversial in the past for their potential contributions to raising house prices.
And issues of affordability are unlikely to be resolved even with increased building supply.
Sky News analysis of changes in house price affordability compared to rates of housebuilding illustrates that areas in England that increased housing stock the most since 2015 have also become proportionally more expensive compared to earnings over the same period.
Sevenoaks in Kent added 11 homes per 1,000 population from 2015 to 2023, but still saw the biggest increase in house prices relative to earnings, increasing from 5.9 to 10.9 as a multiple of average earnings.
This is in part because of pent-up demand, and also because new build properties are more expensive than houses on the second-hand market.
Further challenges ahead
There are a number of other challenges ahead when it comes to ramping up planning processes and building supply, according to Steve Turner from the HBF.
He explained: “We estimate that the nutrients issue where there’s currently a moratorium on housebuilding in 74 local authority areas is currently blocking around 160,000 homes.
“The government has said it will bring a solution on that, and we need to see that come forward.
“There’s also a clear issue at the minute in terms of local authority planning department capacity.”
The government has said it will recruit an additional 300 planners for local authorities, which while a “welcome recognition of the issue”, only amounts to roughly one additional planner per local authority, and could represent a big drag on the capacity to accelerate planning approvals.
Workforce capacity in the construction industry is also a looming issue.
“We’re going to need tens of thousands of new people to be able to build those homes. The newly created Skills England needs to work closely with industry so that grant funding for that is used in a way that means we’re bringing enough of the right kind of people through into training,” added Mr Turner.
“I think we also need to look at how you provide access to foreign labour.”
And developers are also waiting for stability in housing associations’ finances in order to be able to start building projects, where there are requirements for housing associations to take on a proportion of the homes as affordable housing.
“Housing associations are not in the market at the moment for taking on additional stock as they’ve got huge financial pressures on them to upgrade their existing stock, but also in terms of building safety issues,” said Mr Turner.
“That’s creating an issue, both in terms of affordable housing provision, but also holding up the developments of private housing as well. Government needs to find a way to ensure that housing associations are adequately funded such that they can continue to take on additional affordable housing.”
With additional reporting and production by Michelle Inez Simon, visual investigations producer.
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling, we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
A British tourist being treated after a suspected mass methanol poisoning in Laos has died, according to UK officials.
Simone White, 28, from Orpington, Kent, fell ill after reportedly drinking “free shots” from a local bar in Vang Vieng – a resort popular with backpackers.
Four people had already died following the suspected poisonings – an Australian named Bianca Jones, 19, from Melbourne, as well as two Danish women in their 20s and a 56-year-old US citizen.
They are believed to have consumed drinks tainted with methanol, which is sometimes added to mixed drinks as a cheaper alternative to alcohol, but can cause severe poisoning or death.
“We are supporting the family of a British woman who has died in Laos, and we are in contact with the local authorities,” the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) said in a statement.
The FCDO said it was also providing consular assistance to other British nationals hospitalised in the incident, as well as their families.
Ms White was an associate lawyer specialising in intellectual property and technology and worked at the London office of the American law firm Squire Patton Boggs.
Her work involved general commercial matters, and contentious and non-contentious intellectual property law issues, according to the firm’s website.
Bethany Clarke, a friend of Ms White and a healthcare worker, also from Orpington, said a group of six people had been taken to hospital after drinking from the same bar.
She posted on a Laos Backpacking Facebook group to warn other travellers after the group fell ill.
“Urgent – please avoid all local spirits. Our group stayed in Vang Vieng and we drank free shots offered by one of the bars,” she wrote.
“Just avoid them as so not worth it. Six of us who drank from the same place are in hospital currently with methanol poisoning.”
‘Every parent’s very worst fear’
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed to his country’s parliament that 19-year-old Bianca Jones had died after being evacuated to a Thai hospital from Vang Vieng.
Thai authorities confirmed that Jones had died of “brain swelling due to high levels of methanol found in her system”.
Her friend Holly Bowles, also 19, remains in hospital in neighbouring Thailand, Mr Albanese said.
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1:36
Laos methanol poisonings – what we know
Australian officials said “several foreign nationals” had also been victims of methanol poisoning
“This is every parent’s very worst fear and a nightmare that no one should have to endure,” Mr Albanese said.
“We also take this moment to say that we’re thinking of Bianca’s friend Holly Bowles who is fighting for her life.”
‘Her incredible spirit touched so many lives’
In a statement to the Melbourne Herald Sun newspaper, Ms Jones’ family paid tribute to her.
“She was surrounded by love, and we are comforted by the knowledge that her incredible spirit touched so many lives during her time with us,” the family wrote.
“We want to express our deepest gratitude for the overwhelming support, love, and prayers we’ve received from across Australia.”
The US State Department confirmed that an American had also died in Vang Vieng, and Denmark’s Foreign Ministry said two of its citizens had also died in “the incident in Laos”.
Neither would comment directly on a link to methanol poisoning.
The second named storm of the season will bring snow, rain and strong winds to parts of the UK this weekend, according to the Met Office.
Hundreds of schools are closed as the storm, named Bert, sweeps in, bringing freezing temperatures and snow over the weekend.
Wind gusts of up to 70mph are expected in some areas as well as the potential of flooding and travel disruption.
Heavy snowfall could bring further disruption to parts of the country while heavy rain is also likely over the weekend, the Met Office added.
Parts of southwest England including Plymouth and Exeter are under a yellow warning for snow until 3pm today, with 5-10cm predicted in higher parts of Dartmoor.
Wintry showers will continue in different parts of the UK throughout Thursday and Friday, amid warnings of snow and ice for much of Scotland, northern England and parts of western and eastern England and Wales between midday today and 10am tomorrow.
Met Office chief meteorologist Matthew Lehnert said: “A northerly airflow will continue to feed snow showers into Scotland over the next few days, with this reaching lower levels at times and bringing the potential for some travel disruption.
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“Overnight temperatures will drop below zero fairly widely over the next few days, which has resulted in some ice warnings, with further warnings likely through this week.”
More than 114 schools are shut in the Highland Council area today due to snow, including Inverness Royal Academy where pupils were told their prelim exams planned for the day would be rescheduled.
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Almost 40 schools in Aberdeenshire are also shut while many others had delayed openings, and in Moray around 12 were closed and others opened late.
It comes after more than 100 schools or nurseries were closed in Scotland yesterday because of the weather.
South of the border, 89 schools were shut in Devon today, 18 in Dorset and 60 in Cornwall, while in Wales around 10 were closed in Conwy, 18 in Denbighshire and two in Wrexham.
As Storm Bert hits the UK, areas where warnings are in place in the south and west are likely to be impacted by heavy rain on Saturday and Sunday.
Between 50-75 mm of rainfall is expected there on the weekend, while Wales and southwest England could see more than 100mm.
There is already a yellow warning for heavy snow on Saturday followed by a “rapid thaw” and rain on Saturday night in northeast and northwest England, the West Midlands, Yorkshire, and much of Scotland.
Met Office Deputy Chief Meteorologist, Dan Holley, said: “Storm Bert marks a shift to much milder air and wintry hazards will gradually diminish through the weekend, but heavy snowfall is expected across parts of northern England and Scotland for a time on Saturday, especially over higher ground, and warnings are in place.”
A man has been found guilty of murdering his “best friend” on Christmas Eve.
A jury of 10 men and two women heard Dylan Thomas, 24, killed William Bush, 23, in a “frenzied attack”in the Llandaff area of Cardiff last year.
Thomas had previously pleaded guilty to manslaughter by diminished responsibility but denied Mr Bush’s murder.
A trial at Cardiff Crown Court heard Thomas attacked Mr Bush “from behind” in his bedroom after he entered through the kitchen at the property they shared, owned by the defendant’s grandparents.
During the “sustained attack” Mr Bush “fled for his life” down two flights of stairs and onto the patio, the trial heard.
Mr Bush sustained 37 stab wounds in total, including 21 to the neck.
His cause of death was given as “multiple stab wounds to the neck and trunk”.
The defendant, who was wearing a blue t-shirt, attended the hearing via video link from a secure hospital.
The jury returned a unanimous verdict on Thursday afternoon after just over three hours of deliberation.
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Thomas, who was suffering from schizophrenia, had initially claimed he was acting in self-defence.
‘Clear thinking’
The court heard how Mr Bush was Thomas’s “only known real friend”.
During the trial, it was also heard how Thomas had been arrested “for trying to climb into Buckingham Palace” some weeks previously.
He also wrote to Elon Musk telling him he believed he had the ability to harness gravity.
The defendant was staying with his grandmother in Rhoose, the Vale of Glamorgan, on the night before the attack.
In the early hours of Christmas Eve, the jury heard Thomas had carried out an online search for the “anatomy of the neck”.
Thomas, who could not drive, enquired about getting an Uber to Tŷ Matthew in Llandaff at 3.31am.
Later that morning, his grandmother agreed to take him to the house after he told her he “wanted to walk the dog” and they left her home in Rhoose at 10.41am.
He had sent several messages to Mr Bush in the hours before the attack in which he said he needed to see him before Mr Bush went home to Brecon to spend Christmas with his family.
The prosecution argued there was “clear thinking on the part of Dylan Thomas”.
“This was a frenzied attack where Mr Thomas could only have had one intention and that was to kill Mr Bush,” said Gregory Bull KC, prosecuting.
But the defence argued Mr Bush’s schizophrenia lay “at the centre” of the case.
“He didn’t understand, because he was deluded. He believed, for whatever reason, that his best friend was threatening his life,” said defence barrister Orlando Pownall KC.
Thomas will be sentenced on Monday 16 December.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.