Sir Keir Starmer returns to growing storm over rumoured budget tax rises
Is the prime minister declaring war on middle Britain in his definition of a working person and did he mislead the public in his manifesto by giving no inkling of the tens of tens of billions of pounds of tax rises happening in Wednesday’s budget?
Sir Keir Starmer’s emphatic answer to both of these questions at his closing news conference at the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting (Chogm) in Samoa was “no”.
But the fact they were asked gives you a sense of what he’s flying back to this weekend because the £40bn gap in the public finances that Treasury sources are whispering about will have to be filled by big tax rises and spending cuts.
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Starmer questioned on tax rises
The backlash brimming over who is going to bear the brunt comes back to the first principles of what Sir Keir told me in our leaders’ debate interview, which was that he had “no plans” to raise taxes beyond what was in the manifesto.
Back then, Labour was committed to tax rises of about £8bn, based on a tax hike on private equity, the oil and gas industry and VAT on private school fees.
Those measures would pay for more teachers in schools and doctors’ appointments in the NHS.
Now the prime minister and his chancellor, Rachel Reeves, are gearing up to raise tens of billions with a 2p hike in national insurance contributions for employers, which could raise about £20bn, and possible increases in inheritance tax and capital gains tax.
Labour will of course blame the rises on its Conservative inheritance, but voters and businesses hit by tax rises next week will be forgiven for feeling misled.
For his part, the prime minister was clear in the closing news conference at the Commonwealth summit that his campaign pledge not to increase taxes on working people in terms of income tax, national insurance and VAT would be kept.
But the huge tax increases elsewhere will inevitably raise questions about whether the prime minister, who talks a lot about rebuilding trust in politics wasn’t being straight as he fought for election victory.
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He would argue that it was only after Labour lifted the bonnet on the public finances in power that he saw the extent of the damage.
But will it wash with the public given that the Conservatives ran a campaign warning of the big tax rises under Labour that are now surely on the way?
Sir Keir keeps talking about difficult decisions as he returns to what is set to be a defining week as he and his chancellor seek to land a difficult budget.
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Will the chancellor’s fiscal plan work?
The pair will be hoping that the chancellor’s decision to change her debt rules to release up to £50bn of capital to invest in Britain’s infrastructure will help tell the story of rebuilding Britain and cushion the blow of tax rises.
The prime minister had a bit of a dry run of that narrative in Samoa when he explained the hard decisions to come.
He told reporters “we are fixing the foundations, which is tough, but we are doing it on purpose because I believe very strongly that if we fix the foundations, take the tough decisions, scrub it down, make sure that our economy is on a very stable footing, which is what it will do, then that is the best platform for rebuilding the country.
“And for me, that’s the characteristics of that and what I want to be judged on is one, have we made people better off? Do they feel better off under a Labour government because we fix the foundations?”
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The problem he has in the more immediate future is that many people out there who are not hugely wealthy, who define themselves as “working people”, fear they are about to become worse off under a Starmer government.
Businesses, which Labour says it needs to rebuild the economy, are bracing for a huge new levy just months after being promised that national insurance would not rise under a Labour government.
Landlords who have properties and those who hold shares worry that this is a Labour prime minister who is coming for them after the election while not flagging he might beforehand.
His gamble is to administer the pain early in the hope of delivering real improvement in public services and living standards by the time voters go back to the polls.
In the meantime, the rocky atmosphere of his first 100 days is likely to extend into the budget and beyond.
The crash involving a cargo ship and oil tanker off the East Yorkshire coast is bad news for the sea, fish and air in the area. What we don’t know yet is quite how bad it will be.
That depends on a few things – but the speed of the collision, clouds of filthy black smoke from the fires and the leaked fuel are certainly worrying.
Firstly, it matters what was on board those two massive vessels.
Follow live: Jet fuel spilling into sea after tanker collision
Analytics firm Vortexa estimates the 183m-long tanker was carrying about 130,000 barrels of jet fuel (kerosene), which is now leaking into the sea.
Jet fuel is not as sticky or viscous as heavier types of oil, thankfully, so it’s less likely to clog the feathers and fur of birds and seals. It can also be broken down by natural bacteria.
But it can still poison fish and kill animals and plants on the shoreline if it makes its way into the soil there.
The Marine Conservation Society has pointed out the site in the Humber estuary is close to some protected areas and is important for seabirds and harbour porpoises.
And both ships will have been powered by a dirtier, heavier kind of oil – likely marine gas oil or heavy fuel oil, though we don’t know the details yet.
Heavy fuel oil is nasty stuff.
Pic: Bartek Smialek/PA
Cheap, thick and tar-like, it can smother animals and is very dangerous if they consume it, and is extremely difficult to clean up. Let’s hope this isn’t creeping around the North Sea already.
We don’t know how much of either the jet fuel or the oil powering the ships has leaked, or how much will be burned off in the violent fires – which themselves are ploughing black smoke and filthy air pollution into the surrounding atmosphere.
And we don’t know for sure what was on the Solong cargo ship and if, or what, will go into the sea.
Cargo ship ‘had sodium cyanide on board’
It was carrying 15 containers of sodium cyanide among other cargo, according to a report from maritime data provider Lloyd’s List Intelligence.
The container vessel was also transporting an unknown quantity of alcohol, said the casualty report – an assessment of incidents at sea – citing a message from the local coastguard.
Plastic takes hundreds of years to break down, and potentially can choke or trap animals.
Many of us have seen that uncomfortable viral video of a turtle having a straw yanked out of its nose. Previous accidents on cargo ships have seen plastic Lego pieces wash up in Cornwall 25 years later.
Read more:
How UK North Sea platforms dump gas
Secondly, the impact depends on the sea and weather conditions around it.
Things like the wind and currents affect how an oil spill spreads in the sea. Scientists can draw up computer models to simulate how the oil could behave.
Thirdly, it matters how quickly this is all tackled and then cleaned up, if necessary, and if it can be.
Usually the slower the response, the worse the impact.
The coastguard has said the incident “remains ongoing” and it has started assessing the “likely counter pollution response” that will be required.
Such a response might need the help of numerous public bodies: the government environment department, the transport department, the Environment Agency and the Maritime and Coastguard Agency.
So for now the best we can hope for – aside from the welfare of the people involved – is that not all the oil is spilled or burnt, that conditions are calm and that rescuers and those cleaning up can work swiftly.
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