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Briefings and speculation are rife over what will be included in the chancellor’s budget on Wednesday, particularly the scale of tax rises.

The biggest expected revenue raiser, set to generate as much as £20bn for public services, is a hike in employers’ national insurance.

Government sources have given strong indications of the chancellor’s thinking, prompting questions about whether this breaks Labour’s manifesto commitment not to hike the three main taxes – income tax, national insurance and VAT for “working people”.

Hikes in capital gains tax and inheritance tax have been touted as ways the Labour government could find money to balance the books and fix public services.

The budget’s contents will be only be official when Rachel Reeves sets it out on Wednesday, but these are some measures Sky News expects – and doesn’t expect – to be included.

No rises to income tax, national insurance or VAT

Labour ruled out increasing income tax, national insurance and VAT in its manifesto before getting elected, promising to protect “working people” – though who they define as a “working person” has come into question of late.

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The chancellor is also expected to prolong the freeze on income tax thresholds by two years to 2030 after the previous Conservative government froze them until 2028.

The Budget - a special programme on Sky News

Employers’ national insurance hike expected

The amount employers pay in national insurance is set to rise by up to two percentage points, and the money will – in part – be used to help inject £10bn into cutting NHS waiting lists.

A government source told Sky News: “There is a universal consensus that the NHS needs more money.

“That means asking businesses to help out.

“The choice is investment versus decline. She [Rachel Reeves] is choosing not to ask working people to pay the price for their [Conservatives’] failures.”

Housing

The government has confirmed that a large boost in affordable housing will be in the upcoming budget.

It says there will be £500m in new funding to help build up to 5,000 social homes and bring total investment in housing supply to £5bn as part of the government’s Affordable Homes Programme.

£1.4bn for crumbling schools

The chancellor has promised her budget will include £1.4bn to rebuild crumbling schools.

She said children “should not suffer” due to the UK’s depleted public purse, while economists said the funding would generally ensure existing plans keep going, rather than pay for many new initiatives. Teachers said much more cash was needed.

The Treasury said the £1.4bn would “ensure the delivery” of the school rebuilding programme, which was announced in 2020 under then prime minister Boris Johnson.

Funding for nurseries, breakfast clubs and childcare

The Treasury has also confirmed £1.8bn would be allocated for the expansion of government-funded childcare, with a further £15m of capital funding for school-based nurseries.

The Treasury said the first stage of the plan would pay for 300 new or expanded nurseries across England.

Ms Reeves also said she would “triple” investment in free breakfast clubs to £30m in 2025-26, after she announced at Labour’s party conference in September a £7m trial across up to 750 schools starting in April.

VAT exemption for private schools to be scrapped

Labour have long made clear their plans to scrap the VAT exemption and business rates relief for private schools in a bid to fund 6,500 new teachers in state schools.

Details of the government’s assessment of the expected impacts of these policy changes will be published when the budget comes out on 30 October.

This is only two months before the policy is due to come into effect on 1 January 2025, and will likely include details of whether schools will be forced to increase their fees.

It is now expected that military families, a number of whom send their children to private boarding schools because they could be posted abroad at short notice, will be exempt from paying increased fees.

Changes to the £2 bus fare cap

Bus fares have been capped at £2 on more than 4,600 routes in England since 1 January 2023.

Hundreds of operators outside of London have been part of the scheme, which has cost around £500m.

Introducing the scheme in 2023, former transport secretary Mark Harper said it was aimed at helping passengers afford bus travel for both their sakes and the sake of the environment.

But the scheme, which is currently meant to run until at least 31 December, is set to be changed as it is reportedly not generating economic benefit. It is unclear if the cap will be raised or removed entirely.

Read more:
As budget nears, faith in government ‘on a knife edge’

Reeves has left herself with very few political levers to pull for cash
Starmer denies waging ‘war against middle Britain’ with budget

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Billions to be allocated to NHS

The government will be putting aside up to £10bn for the NHS, largely to help it tackle ballooning waiting lists after COVID, currently at a record high of 7.6 million, and to deliver on their promise of another 40,000 hospital appointments per week.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting last week said he has agreed on a plan for NHS funding with the chancellor – but noted the funds won’t actually be available until six months’ time.

“Investment in the budget, that comes in the new fiscal year in April, so that’s spring,” he said.

Labour are facing “difficult and big choices”, Mr Streeting warned, as he said the government “can’t fix 14 years in one budget”.

Carer’s Allowance expansion

Ms Reeves is expected to raise the limit people can earn before being ineligible for the Carers Allowance from £151 a week to £181.

It would mean tens of thousands of carers who aren’t currently eligible would get an extra £81.90 a week under the scheme.

The budget is set to take place at 12.30pm on Wednesday 30 October.

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890 people arrested at Palestine Action protest yesterday – including 17 on suspicion of assaulting police officers

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890 people arrested at Palestine Action protest yesterday - including 17 on suspicion of assaulting police officers

The Metropolitan Police has said 890 people were arrested at a protest against the banning of Palestine Action as a terror group on Saturday – including 17 on suspicion of assaulting officers.

A total of 857 individuals were arrested in Parliament Square in London under the Terrorism Act 2000 over alleged offences, the force said.

It added that a further 33 were arrested for other offences, with 17 of those detained on suspicion of assaulting officers. The Met Police did not say what the other 16 arrests were for.

Deputy Assistant Commissioner Claire Smart, who led the policing operation, thanked Met Police officers for their “professionalism and tireless work despite the level of abuse that they faced”.

Pic: PA
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Pic: PA

Ms Smart said: “The violence we encountered during the operation was coordinated and carried out by a group of people, many wearing masks to conceal their identity, intent on creating as much disorder as possible.

“Many of those individuals have now been arrested and we have begun securing charges.”

Defend Our Juries, which organised the demonstrations, insisted the rally was “the picture of peaceful protest”.

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‘Do I look like a terrorist?’ nurse at protest asks Sky News

Ms Smart also claimed that the “contrast between this demonstration and the other protests we policed yesterday, including the Palestine Coalition march attended by around 20,000 people, was stark”.

She added: “You can express your support for a cause without committing an offence under the Terrorism Act or descending into violence and disorder, and many thousands of people do that in London every week.

“We have a duty to enforce the law without fear or favour. If you advertise that you are intending to commit a crime, we have no option but to respond accordingly.”

Defend Our Juries previously estimated 1,500 had gathered for the rally on Saturday, where many held signs saying: “I oppose genocide. I support Palestine Action.”

Pic: PA
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Pic: PA

Pics: PA
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Pics: PA

The group has been banned as a terror group since 5 July after MPs voted overwhelmingly in favour of the move proposed by then-home secretary Yvette Cooper, making it illegal to express support for the group.

It came shortly after two Voyager aircraft suffered around £7m worth of damage at RAF Brize Norton in Oxfordshire on 20 June.

Defence Secretary John Healey told Sky’s Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips that he expects newly appointed Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood to be “just as tough” as her predecessor on Palestine Action.

He said: “I expect her to defend the decision the government has taken to proscribe Palestine Action because of what some of its members are responsible for, and were planning for.”

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The Met Police previously said the consequences for those charged under the Terrorism Act include a maximum sentence of six months’ imprisonment.

The Home Office is set to appeal against the High Court ruling allowing Palestine Action’s co-founder, Huda Ammori, to proceed with a legal challenge against the government over the group’s ban.

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Labour considering using military barracks to house asylum seekers

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Labour considering using military barracks to house asylum seekers

Defence Secretary John Healey has told Sky News the government is considering using military barracks to house asylum seekers, as an estimated 1,000 people arrived in the UK on small boats on Saturday.

“We are looking at the potential use of military and non-military sites for temporary accommodation for the people who come across on these small boats that may not have a right to be here,” he told Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips.

“I’m looking really hard at it. I’m looking at it with the Home Office, and I recognise that the loss of confidence of the public over recent years in Britain’s ability to control its borders needs to be satisfied. And we have to deal with this problem with the small boats,” Mr Healey added.

Politics latest: Labour considers housing migrants on military sites

The measure follows widespread protests this summer over housing migrants in hotels.

Fresh small boat arrivals were spotted on Sunday, after an estimated 1,000 people arrived on Saturday – when French authorities said 24 people were rescued while trying to cross the Channel.

The figures compare to a relatively recent lull in crossings. In the previous seven days (30 August to 5 September) the Home Office recorded no small boat arrivals.

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Zia Yusuf, head of policy at Reform UK, told Trevor Phillips that Britain has become a “soft touch” on migration, before suggesting between 15 and 25 detention sites will need to be built to detain asylum seekers. He described these as “purpose-built modular steel structures”.

“We can look around the world at where things have worked and worked well. President Trump stood up 3,000 detention beds in eight days. That was this year in the state of Florida – using steel modular structures,” Mr Yusuf said.

He added that the president’s crackdown has significantly reduced illegal border crossings and suggested the same could happen in the English Channel to deter migrants.

“These are unarmed, largely men in dinghies, we don’t need a particularly formidable military to be able to take them to a detention centre,” he said.

Zia Yusuf from Reform UK said he believes Britain has become a "soft touch" on migration
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Zia Yusuf from Reform UK said he believes Britain has become a “soft touch” on migration

Shabana Mahmood will have the job of tackling illegal immigration after taking over from Yvette Cooper as home secretary on Friday – when Sir Keir Starmer carried out a major cabinet reshuffle following the resignation of his deputy prime minister Angela Rayner.

National Crime Agency (NCA) figures show record levels of disruption of immigration crime networks in 2024/25.

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Officials believe this contributed to the lowest number of boats crossing the Channel in August since 2019.

But, despite the 3,567 arrivals in August being the lowest since 2021, when looking across the whole of 2025, the figure of 29,003 is the highest on record for this point in a year.

Sky’s Political Correspondent Liz Bates said that after Labour scrapped the previous government’s controversial Rwanda policy and shut down the Bibby Stockholm barge, ministers are “hitting up against many of the same problems” with “a really broken and very slow asylum system”.

“The context to all of this is a huge shake-up at the Home Office, and I think something of an admission that [Yvette] Cooper, despite her years of experience, could not get a grip… of this problem of people coming across the Channel in small boats and then ending up in asylum hotels,” she added.

Army bases were previously used by the Conservative government, but this prompted local protests, and the sites were widely criticised for their poor conditions in some cases.

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As Sky’s Home Editor Jason Farrell writes, Ms Mahmood has become the home secretary of a country where the national flag is being hoisted as a symbol of dissatisfaction – with anger at the arrival of desperate migrants crossing the Channel in small boats.

Sir Keir’s sweeping changes

Sir Keir Starmer has announced sweeping changes to his ministerial team in the Home Office as his government works to get a grip of illegal migration to the UK.

Here’s a list of who has been moved, besides the home secretary.

Dame Angela Eagle, who was border security and asylum minister, has been moved to the environment department.

Dame Diana Johnson, who was policing and crime minister, has been moved to the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP).

She has said in a post on X that it was an “honour” to work with police officers, and she is “delighted” to be moving to the DWP.

Dan Jarvis has been given a role in the Cabinet Office, in addition to his post as security minister in the Home Office.

And Sarah Jones, who was industry minister, has been moved to the Home Office.

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Harry wants to put ‘trials and tribulations’ behind him in first UK visit in months – but will he meet the King?

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Harry wants to put 'trials and tribulations' behind him in first UK visit in months - but will he meet the King?

Prince Harry will carry out a rare public engagement outside of London this week, as he heads back to the UK for a visit with “no negativity”.

After a tumultuous five years, the Duke of Sussex and his team are hoping this may be a trip that can help begin to “put the trials and tribulations behind them” and herald a reset, according to sources close to the royal.

It’s been confirmed the duke will be in Nottingham on Tuesday, visiting a youth organisation that he’s maintained strong personal contact with since moving to America.

Harry, who is no longer a working royal, is set to carry out a run of engagements and make a substantial donation to BBC Children in Need to support work tackling violence affecting young people.

Prince Harry, last seen in the UK in April 2025. Pic: AP Photo/Alberto Pezzali
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Prince Harry, last seen in the UK in April 2025. Pic: AP Photo/Alberto Pezzali

It is not known if he will meet with his estranged brother, the Prince of Wales, or his father, the King.

The King is currently in Balmoral with the Queen, and so far, no engagements have been announced for the couple this coming week.

The monarch last met his youngest son face-to-face more than 18 months ago, when the duke made a transatlantic dash to see his father after hearing about his cancer diagnosis. The pair spent less than an hour together.

‘There is no negativity with this trip,’ say sources close to Harry

Harry’s past visits to the UK, since stepping away from royal life, have often been shrouded in secrecy with any public moments taking place in London. This will also be the first time in a while that he isn’t returning due to a court case.

Sources close to Harry suggest that already means “there is no negativity with this trip” saying that “Harry is really looking forward to coming back to do what he loves”, focusing on his charity work.

“It’s a moment to put the trials and tribulations of the last few years behind us,” they added.

But Harry and his team are well aware that there will be considerable interest in whether or not he will see his father, the King. Hopes of reconciliation and a potential meeting were ramped up earlier in the summer when members of Harry’s team were photographed meeting with the King’s communications secretary for the first time. Both sides aren’t commenting on any possible contact between Harry and his father this week.

When Harry arrives in London on Monday the King will be in Scotland, marking Queen Elizabeth’s death and his Accession Day. But it’s understood that Harry is due to be in the UK for most of the coming week. The strain in the relationship between father and son was emphasised by Harry in an interview he gave after he lost his legal challenge against the Home Office over his security.

We also understand that his team have tried to “pack in as much as possible” in the coming days, with a number of private meetings and public visits to other organisations with which he has longstanding links.

We are told he will not be meeting lawyers.

Ultimately it appears that Prince Harry and his team are hoping this visit will have a different, more upbeat tone, compared to other recent trips to the UK, in what feels like a reset for the duke.

It has been suggested that he may have wanted to make the trip longer but as he’s “financially responsible” for the visit, including the travel and security bill for him and his team, his time here comes at a considerable cost.

Read more:
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Harry last visited the Community Recording Studio (CRS) in Nottingham’s St Ann’s area to mark World Mental Health Day in 2019, just two months before he and the Duchess of Sussex announced they were stepping down as senior working royals and moving to North America.

The Duke of Sussex last visited the Community Recording Studio in Nottingham in 2019. Pic: PA
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The Duke of Sussex last visited the Community Recording Studio in Nottingham in 2019. Pic: PA

He is planning to hold a private briefing with Children in Need, the Police and Crime Commission, the CRS and community outreach group Epic Partners in Nottingham, stage informal catch-ups with some of the young people he met before, and watch performances from CRS artists and make a short speech.

Harry appears to be focusing on his philanthropic ventures while his wife, Meghan, works on her lifestyle brand, As Ever. She is not expected to join him on the trip to the UK.

Meghan is not expected to join the duke on his trip. Pic: Netflix
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Meghan is not expected to join the duke on his trip. Pic: Netflix

Senior aides to the King and the duke were pictured together in London this July in what was reported to be an initial step towards opening channels of communication between the two sides.

Harry levelled repeated accusations at the King, Queen, William and Kate in his Oprah interview, Netflix documentary, and memoir Spare. But he outlined hopes for a “reconciliation” with his family in a BBC interview in May.

His sit-down with the BBC came in the wake of a court battle over his security in the UK. His level of security was changed after the couple stepped down as senior royals.

Harry took a legal challenge to the Court of Appeal, which he ultimately lost in May. He said he “can’t see a world in which I would be bringing my wife and children back” to the UK.

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