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Briefings and speculation are rife over what will be included in the chancellor’s budget on Wednesday, particularly the scale of tax rises.

The biggest expected revenue raiser, set to generate as much as £20bn for public services, is a hike in employers’ national insurance.

Government sources have given strong indications of the chancellor’s thinking, prompting questions about whether this breaks Labour’s manifesto commitment not to hike the three main taxes – income tax, national insurance and VAT for “working people”.

Hikes in capital gains tax and inheritance tax have been touted as ways the Labour government could find money to balance the books and fix public services.

The budget’s contents will be only be official when Rachel Reeves sets it out on Wednesday, but these are some measures Sky News expects – and doesn’t expect – to be included.

No rises to income tax, national insurance or VAT

Labour ruled out increasing income tax, national insurance and VAT in its manifesto before getting elected, promising to protect “working people” – though who they define as a “working person” has come into question of late.

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The chancellor is also expected to prolong the freeze on income tax thresholds by two years to 2030 after the previous Conservative government froze them until 2028.

The Budget - a special programme on Sky News

Employers’ national insurance hike expected

The amount employers pay in national insurance is set to rise by up to two percentage points, and the money will – in part – be used to help inject £10bn into cutting NHS waiting lists.

A government source told Sky News: “There is a universal consensus that the NHS needs more money.

“That means asking businesses to help out.

“The choice is investment versus decline. She [Rachel Reeves] is choosing not to ask working people to pay the price for their [Conservatives’] failures.”

Housing

The government has confirmed that a large boost in affordable housing will be in the upcoming budget.

It says there will be £500m in new funding to help build up to 5,000 social homes and bring total investment in housing supply to £5bn as part of the government’s Affordable Homes Programme.

£1.4bn for crumbling schools

The chancellor has promised her budget will include £1.4bn to rebuild crumbling schools.

She said children “should not suffer” due to the UK’s depleted public purse, while economists said the funding would generally ensure existing plans keep going, rather than pay for many new initiatives. Teachers said much more cash was needed.

The Treasury said the £1.4bn would “ensure the delivery” of the school rebuilding programme, which was announced in 2020 under then prime minister Boris Johnson.

Funding for nurseries, breakfast clubs and childcare

The Treasury has also confirmed £1.8bn would be allocated for the expansion of government-funded childcare, with a further £15m of capital funding for school-based nurseries.

The Treasury said the first stage of the plan would pay for 300 new or expanded nurseries across England.

Ms Reeves also said she would “triple” investment in free breakfast clubs to £30m in 2025-26, after she announced at Labour’s party conference in September a £7m trial across up to 750 schools starting in April.

VAT exemption for private schools to be scrapped

Labour have long made clear their plans to scrap the VAT exemption and business rates relief for private schools in a bid to fund 6,500 new teachers in state schools.

Details of the government’s assessment of the expected impacts of these policy changes will be published when the budget comes out on 30 October.

This is only two months before the policy is due to come into effect on 1 January 2025, and will likely include details of whether schools will be forced to increase their fees.

It is now expected that military families, a number of whom send their children to private boarding schools because they could be posted abroad at short notice, will be exempt from paying increased fees.

Changes to the £2 bus fare cap

Bus fares have been capped at £2 on more than 4,600 routes in England since 1 January 2023.

Hundreds of operators outside of London have been part of the scheme, which has cost around £500m.

Introducing the scheme in 2023, former transport secretary Mark Harper said it was aimed at helping passengers afford bus travel for both their sakes and the sake of the environment.

But the scheme, which is currently meant to run until at least 31 December, is set to be changed as it is reportedly not generating economic benefit. It is unclear if the cap will be raised or removed entirely.

Read more:
As budget nears, faith in government ‘on a knife edge’

Reeves has left herself with very few political levers to pull for cash
Starmer denies waging ‘war against middle Britain’ with budget

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Billions to be allocated to NHS

The government will be putting aside up to £10bn for the NHS, largely to help it tackle ballooning waiting lists after COVID, currently at a record high of 7.6 million, and to deliver on their promise of another 40,000 hospital appointments per week.

Health Secretary Wes Streeting last week said he has agreed on a plan for NHS funding with the chancellor – but noted the funds won’t actually be available until six months’ time.

“Investment in the budget, that comes in the new fiscal year in April, so that’s spring,” he said.

Labour are facing “difficult and big choices”, Mr Streeting warned, as he said the government “can’t fix 14 years in one budget”.

Carer’s Allowance expansion

Ms Reeves is expected to raise the limit people can earn before being ineligible for the Carers Allowance from £151 a week to £181.

It would mean tens of thousands of carers who aren’t currently eligible would get an extra £81.90 a week under the scheme.

The budget is set to take place at 12.30pm on Wednesday 30 October.

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Abolishing Ofwat and compulsory water meters – key recommendations from landmark report into ‘broken’ water industry

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'Broken' water industry set to be overhauled - nine key recommendations from landmark report

The system for regulating water companies in England and Wales should be overhauled and replaced with one single body in England and another in Wales, a once-in-a-generation review of the sector has advised.

The report, which includes 88 recommendations, suggests a new single integrated regulator to replace existing water watchdogs, mandatory water metering, and a social tariff for vulnerable customers.

The ability to block companies being taken over and the creation of eight new regional water authorities, with another for all of Wales to deliver local priorities, has also been suggested.

Money blog: Funeral director on why she speaks to dead people

The review, the largest into the water industry since privatisation in the 1980s, was undertaken by Sir Jon Cunliffe, a career civil servant and former deputy governor of the Bank of England who oversaw the biggest clean-up of Britain’s banking system in the wake of the financial crash.

File pic: iStock
Image:
File pic: iStock

He was coaxed out of retirement by Environment Secretary Steve Reed to lead the Independent Water Commission.

Final recommendations of the commission have been published on Monday morning to clean up the sector and improve public confidence, as bills rise 36% over the next five years. Here are its nine key recommendations:

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• Single integrated water regulators – a single water regulator in England and a single water regulator in Wales. In England, this would replace Ofwat, the Drinking Water Inspectorate and water-environment related functions from the Environment Agency and Natural England. In Wales, Ofwat’s economic responsibilities would be integrated into Natural Resources Wales.

It’s hoped this will solve the “fragmented and overlapping” regulation, and more stable regulation will improve investor confidence. Communications regulator Ofcom was given as an example of how combining five existing regulators into one worked.

• Eight new regional water system planning authorities in England and one national authority in Wales to be responsible for water investment plans reflecting local priorities and streamlining the planning processes.

The new authorities would be independent, made up of representatives from local councils, public health officials, environmental advocates, agricultural voices and consumers. The aim is they could direct funding and ensure accountability from all sectors impacting water.

• Greater consumer protection – this includes upgrading the consumer body Consumer Council for Water, into an Ombudsman for Water to give stronger protection to customers and a clearer route to resolving complaints. Advocacy duties are to be transferred to Citizens Advice.

• Stronger environmental regulation, including compulsory water meters. Also proposed by Sir Jon are changes to wholesale tariffs for industrial users and greater water reuse and rainwater harvesting schemes. A new long-term, legally binding target for the water environment was suggested.

• Oversight of companies via the ability to block changes in ownership of water businesses when they are not seen to be prioritising the long-term interests of the company and its customers, and the addition of “public benefit” clauses in water company licences.

To boost company financial resilience, as the UK’s biggest provider, Thames Water struggles to remain in private ownership, the commission has recommended minimum financial requirements, like banks are subject to. This could mean utilities hold a certain amount of cash. It’s hoped this will, in turn, make companies more appealing to potential investors.

• The public health element of water has been recognised, and senior public health representation has been recommended for regional water planning authorities, as have new laws to address pollutants like forever chemicals and microplastics.

• Fundamental reset of economic regulation – including changes to ensure companies are investing in and maintaining assets to help attract long-term, low-risk investment. A “supervisory” approach has been recommended to intervene before things like pollution occur, rather than penalising the businesses after the event.

• Clear strategic direction – a long-term, 25-year national water strategy should be published by the UK and Welsh governments, with ministerial priorities given to water firms every five years.

• Infrastructure and asset health reforms – companies should also be required to map and assess their assets and resilience.

Nationalisation of the water industry was not in the Independent Water Commission’s terms of reference and so was not considered.

How has the report been received?

In a speech responding to Sir Jon’s report, Mr Reed is set to describe the water industry as “broken” and welcome the commission’s recommendations to ensure “the failures of the past can never happen again”.

The water industry lobby group Water UK said “fundamental change has been long overdue”.

“These recommendations should establish the foundations to secure our water supplies, support economic growth and end sewage entering our rivers and seas,” a spokesperson said.

“The Independent Water Commission has written a comprehensive, detailed review of the whole sector, with many wide-ranging and ambitious recommendations.

“Crucially, it is now up to government to decide which recommendations it will adopt, and in what way, but the commission’s work marks a significant step forward.”

Campaign group Surfers Against Sewage said the report “utterly fails to prioritise public benefit over private profit”.

“This is not transformational reform, this is putting lipstick on a pig - and you can bet the champagne is flowing in water company boardrooms across the land,” said its chief executive, Giles Bristow.

“Only one path forward remains: a full, systemic transformation that ends the ruthless pursuit of profit and puts the public good at the heart of our water services,” he said.

“We welcome Sir Jon’s calls for a national strategy, enshrining public health objectives in law and regional water planning. But we won’t be taken for fools - abolishing Ofwat and replacing it with a shinier regulator won’t stop sewage dumping or profiteering if the finance and ownership structures stay the same.”

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Water wars: What difference will it make?

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Water wars: What difference will it make?

👉Listen to Politics at Sam and Anne’s on your podcast app👈

The Government announces the “Reed Reforms” to fix Britain’s water system, but will it make a difference?

Sky News’ Sam Coates and Politico’s Anne McElvoy consider if customers’ bills will go down and what practical changes will be made.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer meets with two world leaders later this week ahead of the parliamentary summer recess.

Plus, we hear about an unexpected visitor in the Coates household.

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US bank lobby challenges crypto firms’ bids for bank licences

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US bank lobby challenges crypto firms’ bids for bank licences

US bank lobby challenges crypto firms’ bids for bank licences

US banking and credit union groups asked the OCC to delay deciding on bank license applications from crypto firms, arguing there are “significant policy and process concerns.”

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