College Football Power Rankings: Colorado makes its first appearance
Compared to the past few weeks, it was a somewhat ho-hum Week 9 in college football. Four AP-ranked teams lost, but each lost to a fellow ranked opponent.
Ohio State and Penn State both survived scares, setting up a top-five showdown next week in State College.
How did Saturday’s action affect our Power Rankings?
Here’s the latest top 25 from our college football experts, who provide their insight on each team’s Week 9 performance.
Previous ranking: 1
In their first game as the No.1 team in the country, the Ducks dismantled No. 20 Illinois with 35 first-half points and a 38-9 win to remain undefeated heading into the final four games of the regular season. After outlasting Ohio State a few weeks ago, Oregon has put together its two best defensive performances on back-to-back weeks, shutting out Purdue on the road and holding Illinois to 293 total yards and nine points Saturday. Teams not named Ohio State or Boise State have not been able to score more than 14 points on the Ducks’ defense, which ranks in the top 20 in the nation at stopping the pass. Overall, Dan Lanning’s defense has been consistent, but if there was something to nitpick, it’s that heading into the game, opponents scored 88% of the time once inside the 20-yard line. On Saturday, Illinois entered the red zone four times and scored only twice. — Paolo Uggetti
Previous ranking: 2
Last we saw Kirby Smart’s Dawgs, they were playing their most defensively brilliant game of the season in a 30-15 win over Texas. UGA’s defensive front was as healthy as it’s been all year and got star performances out of end Mykel Williams and linebacker Jalon Walker. UGA was on bye this week, but the next two offenses the Dawgs will see — Florida’s and Ole Miss’ — have plenty of upside and could test them if they can’t solve their biggest 2024 issue: inconsistency. In five SEC games, they’ve allowed 12, 41, 13, 31 and 15 points. They headed into their bye week ranked just 26th in yards allowed per play and 19th in yards allowed per game. That’s good, but they were great in Austin and might need to show that form more frequently down the stretch. — Bill Connelly
Previous ranking: 6
There were too many penalties and Texas was never able to completely put away Vanderbilt, but the Longhorns bounced back from their disappointing home loss to Georgia to beat the Commodores 27-24 on the road Saturday. The best news for Texas was that quarterback Quinn Ewers also bounced back with three touchdown passes and didn’t blink when he threw an interception on the game’s first possession on a tipped ball. Ewers completed 17 straight passes after that interception. Vanderbilt had committed only two turnovers all season entering the game, but the Longhorns’ defense forced the Commodores into three turnovers. Texas (7-1, 3-1) has now won nine straight road games and will get a bye before returning to action against Florida at home on Nov. 9. — Chris Low
Previous ranking: 5
The Nittany Lions took care of Wisconsin but lost quarterback Drew Allar to a left knee injury. Allar’s status is now in question heading into next weekend’s monster showdown against Ohio State. Sophomore backup Beau Pribula played well in Allar’s place, completing 11 of 13 passes for 98 yards and a touchdown in Penn State’s 28-13 victory. But Allar has been among the top quarterbacks in the country this season. He came into the weekend ranked sixth nationally with a QBR of 86.8, and in the first half against the Badgers, he completed 14 of 18 passes for 148 yards and a touchdown. Allar tried to play in the second half but couldn’t move well enough after “tweaking” his knee. The Nittany Lions have to hope their budding star quarterback can return in time to start in Penn State’s biggest game of the year. – Jake Trotter
Previous ranking: 3
Coming off the loss at Oregon and then a bye, the Buckeyes scuffled at home against Nebraska. Jordan Hancock finally put the Huskers away with an interception with 1:16 left, preserving the 21-17 victory. Most troubling, Ohio State’s once vaunted rushing attack has begun to look stoppable. After getting outrushed by the Ducks, the Buckeyes averaged just 3.7 yards per carry against Nebraska; star running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson combined for only 54 yards on 20 carries. Besides that, one game after losing standout left tackle Josh Simmons to a season-ending knee injury, Ohio State also lost his replacement, as Zen Michalski was carted off the field Saturday with an undisclosed injury. The Buckeyes still have the pieces to win the Big Ten, make the playoff and even capture the national championship. But they need to get the running game back on track, beginning next weekend at Penn State. — Jake Trotter
Previous ranking: 4
The Hurricanes beat Florida State 36-14 in an effort that was far more dominant than the final score indicated. Miami controlled the game, particularly up front, an area of strength on both sides of the line. What has to be encouraging is the way they tackled, an area that they knew they needed to improve on defense headed into the matchup. Miami struggled to get players to the ground in the previous few weeks, particularly in a win over Louisville. Its pass defense was not tested against the Seminoles, who rank as one of the worst offenses in the nation. But this is another area where the Hurricanes have struggled at times and will be a point of emphasis for improvement as the season hits its final stretch. Of its final four opponents, Syracuse might provide the toughest test in that area, but nobody can be overlooked — starting with Duke and a rematch against former head coach Manny Diaz next week. — Andrea Adelson
Previous ranking: 8
The Hoosiers’ magical season continued with another resounding win. Backup quarterback Tayven Jackson did enough in a 31-17 victory over Washington, passing and rushing for a touchdown. Starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke (thumb) should be back soon. Indiana remarkably still has not trailed this season; according to ESPN Research, the Hoosiers are the first FBS team since the 1998 Kansas State Wildcats to start 8-0 without trailing once. That K-State team was a win away from making the BCS National Championship, falling to Texas A&M in double overtime in the Big 12 title game. Indiana figures to be favorites in three of its last four remaining regular-season games, save for a trip to Ohio State on Nov. 23. It’s past time to think of these Hoosiers as serious playoff contenders. — Trotter
Previous ranking: 9
After squeaking by Oklahoma State last week, BYU put together a stronger performance on the road Saturday, easily taking down UCF 37-24. The Cougars jumped out to a 17-0 lead and led by as many as 24 in the second half to move to 8-0. BYU now heads into the bye with the rivalry game against Utah looming on Nov. 9. With Utah struggling, it’s a game the Cougars should win with ease. However, given the rivalry stakes, it also sets up as game that could get weird. Still, it’s hard to see how Utah’s struggling offense will be able to do much against BYU given the trajectory of both teams. — Kyle Bonagura
Previous ranking: 14
The Aggies put the clamps on LSU and Garrett Nussmeier after a hot start, picking him off three times, a first in his career, and holding the Tigers to just 146 second-half yards. They allowed just 24 rushing yards, and they harassed Nussmeier, who went just 4-of-14 for 89 yards when he was under pressure, including two of those INTs. Still, the Aggies allowed five completions of more than 30 yards, including a 76-yard TD where Aaron Anderson split two Aggie defenders. The A&M defense is creating pressure without much blitzing, but Mike Elko still would like to see more big plays eliminated. There’s hope: The Aggies’ next two opponents, South Carolina and New Mexico State, are ranked 103rd and 127th in total offense. — Dave Wilson
Previous ranking: 7
The 6-1 Tigers are coming off their bye week, and it’s hard to find much to seriously nitpick about their defense in ACC play. Dabo Swinney needed to see improvement from the Tigers’ run defense after Stanford burned them for 236 rushing yards, and they responded by holding each of their past three opponents under 90 rushing yards. He’d also like to see their backups do a better job of getting stops. Clemson has allowed 107 points over five conference games, but 54 of those points were scored in garbage time when the Tigers were up big. Virginia dropped 21 points in the fourth quarter of their 48-31 loss last week. Competitive depth on defense is a must if this team is looking to make a deep CFP run. –– Olson
Previous ranking: 11
The Volunteers were off Saturday after beating Alabama in Week 8, and there are few defenses across the country playing better than Tennessee’s through seven games. Led by fourth-year coordinator Tim Banks and one of college football’s fiercest defensive lines, the Vols rank second in run defense (78.6 YPG), fourth in total defense (259.0 YPG)) and fourth in scoring defense (11.6 PPG) nationally, and they’ve yet to let an opponent go over 20 points. It all starts up front for Tennessee, where 2023 All-SEC selection James Pearce Jr. is putting together another impressive campaign, creating more pressure — 21.0% edge pressure rate — than every pass rusher in the country outside of Ohio State’s Jack Sawyer (22.8%). The Vols’ defense buckled in their lone defeat of 2024, squandering a 14-3 third-quarter lead in a 19-14 loss to Arkansas on Oct. 5, and a unit that’s averaging 4.0 first-half points allowed against SEC opponents has given up double digits after halftime in each of its four SEC games. If Tennessee can tighten up its second-half defense, a great Vols defense can get even better in the program’s pursuit of a first playoff appearance. — Eli Lederman
Previous ranking: 10
The Cyclones are 7-0 for just the second time in program history and hit their final five regular-season games buoyed by the Big 12’s No. 1 defense despite a series of key injuries at the heart of Jon Heacock’s 3-3-5 defense. Off in Week 9, Iowa State will enter its Week 10 visit from Texas Tech leading the conference in total defense (304.0 YPG), pass defense (133.7 YPG) and scoring defense (14.4 PPG) this fall. But injuries to top linebacker Caleb Bacon, Will McLaughlin, Carson Willich and Cael Brezina have decimated the Cyclones’ run defense, leaving Iowa State ranked 15th in the Big 12 giving up 170.3 rushing yards per game. UCF exposed the Cyclones’ issues against the run when it racked up 354 rushing yards in Ames in Week 8, and it’s Iowa State’s trouble stopping the run that poses the biggest threat to the program’s postseason aspirations. — Eli Lederman
Previous ranking: 12
The Irish might well have played their best all-around game in Week 9, dominating Navy 51-14. Riley Leonard threw for two touchdowns, the ground game ran for 265 yards and four scores, and the defense recorded six turnovers — including five fumble recoveries. That it came against a red-hot Navy team was an important step for the Irish, who’ve been trying to live down the brutal loss to Northern Illinois in Week 2. But Notre Dame’s victory over Texas A&M looks increasingly impressive, and another win over a ranked opponent means Notre Dame shouldn’t have to do too much apologizing for its résumé when the first playoff rankings are released in nine days. — David Hale
Previous ranking: 16
So much of the buzz about Pitt’s hot start has surrounded Eli Holstein and the offense, but Thursday’s 41-13 win over Syracuse was all about the D. Pat Narduzzi’s unit looked like it had Syracuse’s playbook, and it absolutely embarrassed Kyle McCord, picking off five passes, including three it returned for touchdowns. The job gets bigger in Week 10 with a trip to Dallas to face 7-1 SMU, and if Pitt’s defense is peaking now, it might be just the right time. — Hale
Previous ranking: 19
Even with the offense having a hard time getting untracked, Alabama never flinched on defense Saturday in a 34-0 home win over Missouri. The Crimson Tide didn’t score their first touchdown until the final two minutes of the first half, but it didn’t really matter. Alabama suffocated Missouri the entire game and forced the Tigers into three turnovers. It’s the second straight week that Alabama has played well on the defensive side after losing 24-17 a week ago to Tennessee. In this game, the Crimson Tide (6-2, 3-2) clamped down on the Missouri passing game. Brady Cook started at quarterback for the Tigers and was clearly not 100 percent. He left the game after injuring his hand. Drew Pyne relieved Cook and was intercepted three times, as Alabama held Missouri to 72 passing yards. Alabama now gets a week off before traveling to LSU on Nov. 9 in a game the Tide will almost certainly need to win to stay in playoff contention. — Low
Previous ranking: 15
The Broncos handled their toughest conference matchup of the regular season against UNLV and escaped with a 29-24 win. Despite an uncharacteristic game from Ashton Jeanty (he still had 128 rushing yards and a touchdown), Boise State was able to hold UNLV scoreless in the second and fourth quarters, which proved to be crucial in the result. At times this season, the Broncos’ defense has been nothing to write home about (they allowed 30 points to Utah State and 45 to Georgia Southern), but they’ve been stout enough, especially in stopping the run and in leading the country in sacks, to allow Jeanty and the offense to handle opponents. The unit is allowing only 117 yards per game on the ground while the passing defense is in the bottom 20 in the nation. As the season continues, Boise will need to shore up their pass defense while also hoping they can create more turnovers (only six so far this season) to keep their run toward a playoff berth going. — Uggetti
Previous ranking: 17
The Wildcats avoided a consequential upset to rival Kansas when Chris Tennant kicked a 51-yard field goal with 1:42 left in a 29-27 win. The win keeps Kansas State a game back of both BYU and Iowa State in the Big 12 standings, which means if it wins out it would be guaranteed a place in the conference title game. (It plays Iowa State in the regular-season finale). Defensively, K-State stood tall when it mattered, holding Kansas without a point on its final four drives over which the Jayhawks gained just a combined 30 yards. — Bonagura
Previous ranking: 13
The Tigers coach knows exactly what LSU needs to improve after a 38-23 loss to Texas A&M. “Right now, I’d run the quarterback against us,” Brian Kelly said. And the Aggies did: After holding Conner Weigman to just 6 of 18 passing for 64 yards, Marcel Reed came off the bench and rushed nine times for 62 yards and three touchdowns. “They didn’t really make any adjustments,” Reed said afterward. So there’s a starting place. With Alabama and Jalen Milroe coming up on Nov. 9, the Tigers have a bye week to figure out how to stop him. — Wilson
Previous ranking: 18
The Mustangs survived a wild 28-27 overtime win over Duke, in which they turned the ball over six times and still found a way to come out with the victory and stay undefeated in ACC play. Though much of the focus has been on the offense and quarterback Kevin Jennings, SMU’s defense has been among the most consistent in the ACC — particularly at creating turnovers and stopping the run. Indeed, Duke scored zero points off those six SMU turnovers because the Mustangs defense stepped up every time. But if there is one area for improvement, red zone defense has been an area in which they have struggled. Opponents have gotten inside the red zone 24 times this season, and scored 20 touchdowns. Up next is a big matchup with ACC championship games against undefeated Pitt. — Andrea Adelson
Previous ranking: 23
The Rebels’ defense put together a dominant second-half performance in the 26-14 win over Oklahoma, shutting out the Sooners by allowing just 94 yards on 2.5 yards per play. Pete Golding’s defense teed off on a struggling Sooners offensive line with a season-high 10 sacks and got stops on eight of nine third downs. That’s a confidence-building effort coming off the overtime loss at LSU. Ole Miss’ defensive line has been excellent thus far and benefited from getting Princely Umanmielen back in the lineup against the Sooners. They have all the talent they need and have allowed just 39 total points over their six wins. The name of the game now is staying healthy and playing with poise under pressure. We’re now less than two weeks away from Georgia coming to Oxford. — Olson
Previous ranking: 20
While rival Navy was self-destructing early and getting beaten up by Notre Dame, Army was on bye, watching on television and getting ready for a tricky pair of games. First, Air Force visits West Point for a bitter rivalry game; then the Black Knights visit North Texas. A win in the latter game would all but lock up a spot for Army in the AAC championship, but it could require a little bit of stiffening in pass defense. North Texas quarterback Chandler Morris is a relentless and efficient passer, but Army came into the bye week ranked just 113th in completion rate allowed (64.6%). UNT’s defense will have to make some stops against a dynamite Army offense, but the Mean Green are happy to make this one a track meet if Army can’t make stops either. — Connelly
Previous ranking: NR
Back in the spring, Colorado coach Deion Sanders guaranteed a bowl berth this season, and the Buffaloes have already accomplished that eight games in after a 34-23 win over Cincinnati. Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter took on starring roles again, but the entire team has taken a step forward after a 4-8 debut season under Sanders, which also included a 1-8 mark in league play. Colorado is 4-1 in the Big 12 with more to come. The Buffaloes have been vastly improved in many areas, but one where they can continue to get better in is run defense, where they are allowing nearly 4 yards per carry. Colorado is off next week before going on the road to play Texas Tech to keep its sleeper Big 12 championship hopes alive. — Adelson
Previous ranking: 25
Wazzu continues to find a way to win, having come out on the winning side of the four one-score games it has been in. Against San Diego State on Saturday, the Cougars trailed 26-14 in the fourth quarter before scoring touchdowns on drives of 80 and 63 yards to win. Even at 7-1, there is a lot WSU needs to get cleaned up. SDSU’s 414 yards of offense were the most it has gained against an FBS opponent all season and is part of a trend in which the Cougars have been easy to move the ball against (they’ve allowed more than 400 yards in six games this season). They have a manageable remaining schedule with Utah State, New Mexico, Oregon State and Wyoming, but an 11-1 record probably won’t be good enough for a playoff spot. — Bonagura
Previous ranking: 22
The Fighting Illini did not look like the 20th-best team in the country Saturday as they traveled to Eugene and effectively lost the game in the first half, if not the first quarter, allowing 35 points before the break. Oregon took their foot off the gas in the second half and won 38-9, but the statement was made quite loudly and it left Illinois looking like a team that didn’t belong. Despite wins against Kansas, Nebraska and, most recently, Michigan, Illinois’ defense ranks 79th in the country at stopping the run. To revive their season in the final four games, the Illini also need to be far better at stopping teams on third down. The Ducks converted six of 11 third-down attempts Saturday and overall, Illinois is allowing a 45% conversion rate on third down — good for 118th in the country. — Uggetti
Previous ranking: 24
Brady Cook pulled off heroics a week ago against Auburn, suffering a high ankle sprain, reentering the game and leading a fourth-quarter comeback. As it turned out, attempting something similar against an angry Alabama team in Tuscaloosa, after missing most of a week of practice, was too tall a task. Cook went just 7-for-12 for 30 yards and left the game late in the first half. Backup Drew Pyne threw three interceptions, and despite the Tigers’ defense playing one of its best first halves of the season, Mizzou fell 34-0. In the second half, Mizzou’s biggest defensive issue — big plays — began to rear its ugly head. Alabama enjoyed rushes of 32, 28, 35 and 62 and finished the game with 282 non-sack rushing yards at 8.1 yards per carry. Offense lost this game, but if the Tigers still want to make something of the season, the big-play issues still need cleaning up. — Connelly
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Kyle Bonagura
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Kyle Bonagura
ESPN Staff Writer
- Covers college football.
- Joined ESPN in 2014.
- Attended Washington State University.
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Mark Schlabach
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Mark Schlabach
ESPN Senior Writer
- Senior college football writer
- Author of seven books on college football
- Graduate of the University of Georgia
After a thrilling championship weekend, the games have all been played and it’s time to wait for the final College Football Playoff rankings and bowl assignments. Does Alabama make the playoff? What about Miami and Notre Dame? And what is the trickle-down effect of those decisions on bowl season?
We don’t need to wait for the official matchups.
ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach are projecting every postseason matchup, including their breakdowns of how the playoff will play out.
Jump to a section:
Playoff picks | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season
College Football Playoff
First-round games (at campus sites)
All times Eastern
Friday, Dec. 19
8 p.m., ABC, ESPN
Saturday, Dec. 20
Noon, ABC, ESPN
3:30 p.m., TNT
7:30 p.m., TNT
Bonagura: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 12 James Madison at No. 5 Oregon
Bonagura: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
Schlabach: No. 11 Tulane at No. 6 Ole Miss
Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
Schlabach: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
CFP quarterfinals
Wednesday, Dec. 31
CFP Quarterfinal at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Thursday, Jan. 1
CFP Quarterfinal at the Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
Schlabach: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Ohio State
CFP Quarterfinal at the Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential
Rose Bowl (Pasadena, California)
4 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 9 Notre Dame vs. No. 1 Indiana
CFP Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 2 Georgia
CFP semifinals, national championship game
Thursday, Jan. 8
CFP Semifinal at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Georgia
Friday, Jan. 9
CFP Semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 Georgia vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 4 Texas Tech vs. No. 1 Indiana
Monday, Jan. 19
CFP National Championship Presented by AT&T
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 2 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 3 Ohio State
Complete bowl season schedule
Matchups in bold have already been announced
Saturday, Dec. 13
Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
South Carolina State vs. Prairie View A&M
Bucked Up LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
8 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Washington vs. Boise State
Schlabach: Washington vs. Boise State
Tuesday, Dec. 16
IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Miami (Ohio) vs. Texas State
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. Troy
Wednesday, Dec. 17
StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Old Dominion vs. South Florida
68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Louisiana vs. Delaware
Thursday, Dec. 18
Xbox Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN2
Missouri State vs. Arkansas State
Friday, Dec. 19
Myrtle Beach Bowl Presented by Engine
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: Western Michigan vs. Georgia Southern
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. UConn
Schlabach: Wake Forest vs. UConn
Monday, Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Washington State vs. Utah State
Schlabach: Ohio vs. San Diego State
Tuesday, Dec. 23
Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Florida International vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Florida International vs. Miami (Ohio)
New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Southern Miss
Schlabach: Kennesaw State vs. Southern Miss
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Ford Center at The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Kentucky vs. San Diego State
Schlabach: Texas State vs. Louisiana Tech
Wednesday, Dec. 24
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 p.m., ESPN
California vs. Hawai’i
Friday, Dec. 26
GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Northwestern vs. Toledo
Schlabach: Northwestern vs. Central Michigan
Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: Minnesota vs. Iowa State
SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UTSA vs. Coastal Carolina
Schlabach: UTSA vs. Utah State
Saturday, Dec. 27
Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisville vs. North Texas
Schlabach: Louisville vs. East Carolina
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Penn State vs. Pitt
Schlabach: Penn State vs. Clemson
Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Army
Schlabach: NC State vs. Army
Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Virginia vs. TCU
Schlabach: Duke vs. TCU
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., CW Network
Bonagura: Ohio vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: East Carolina vs. New Mexico
Schlabach: Washington State vs. New Mexico
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 p.m. ABC
Bonagura: Miami vs. Vanderbilt
Schlabach: Miami vs. Vanderbilt
Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Houston vs. Missouri
Monday, Dec. 29
JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UNLV vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Coastal Carolina vs. Memphis
Tuesday, Dec. 30
Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Cincinnati vs. Western Michigan
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Western Kentucky
Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. LSU
Schlabach: Illinois vs. LSU
Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: BYU vs. USC
Wednesday, Dec. 31
ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Iowa vs. Tennessee
Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Wake Forest vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Pitt vs. Arizona State
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Texas
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Texas
SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Utah
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Utah
Friday, Jan. 2
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Duke vs. Kennesaw State
Schlabach: Kansas State vs. North Texas
AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Iowa State vs. Navy
Schlabach: Cincinnati vs. Navy
Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. Troy
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Virginia
Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 p.m., Fox
Bonagura: SMU vs. Arizona
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona
Someone is going to be upset — and it’s not just ACC champion Duke, which likely will be excluded from the playoff in favor of Sun Belt champion James Madison.
It might be the entire ACC that is fuming.
With Alabama losing to Georgia in the SEC championship game, the College Football Playoff selection committee’s biggest decision Saturday night will be how far to drop the Tide — and the result could mean the difference for Miami’s playoff hopes. The focus of the final ranking on Selection Day (Noon ET, ESPN) will be where it has been all season — on Notre Dame, Alabama and Miami.
Will the three-loss Tide earn the committee’s final at-large bid as the SEC runner-up? Or will Alabama’s poor performance against Georgia open the door for Notre Dame and Miami to finish in the top 10?
Here’s our prediction for what the committee might do in its sixth and final ranking on Selection Day.
Projecting the top 12
Why they could be here: The Big Ten champions are the only undefeated team left in the country, and they earned the best win of the season by defeating the committee’s No. 1 team, Ohio State. The Hoosiers entered Saturday ranked No. 1 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, No. 1 in total efficiency and No. 4 in game control — and that was before they beat Ohio State.
Why they could be lower: This isn’t a realistic scenario.
Need to know: Indiana won its first Big Ten title since 1967 (shared with Minnesota and Purdue) and its first outright Big Ten title since 1945.
Why they could be here: The Buckeyes have arguably the best loss of the season — to the committee’s No. 2 team — and it was a close game that went down to the wire. Ohio State still has two wins against CFP top-25 teams in Texas and Michigan, and the committee has been impressed all season with the Buckeyes’ talent and consistent dominance.
Why they could be lower: Without the win against the Hoosiers, Ohio State’s best win is a close home game against Texas — a team that Georgia hammered 35-10. Georgia and Texas Tech also have multiple wins against CFP top-25 opponents. Ohio State’s strength of schedule was ranked No. 46 entering Saturday, while Georgia was No. 25.
Need to know: Even if the committee drops Ohio State lower, it’s highly unlikely the Buckeyes fall out of the top four. They still have a strong case for a first-round bye as the Big Ten runner-up.
Why they could be here: The SEC champs avenged their regular-season loss to Alabama, and they did it in resounding fashion. The Bulldogs’ lone loss to the Tide is better than Texas Tech’s loss to Arizona, even though the committee knows the Red Raiders were without their starting quarterback in that game. Nobody has a better loss, though, than Ohio State, the Big Ten runner-up. Indiana and Ohio State entered Saturday ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and playing each other in the Big Ten title game will only boost that. Georgia also has a convincing victory against Texas, which should still be the committee’s No. 13 team. Wins against Tennessee, Ole Miss and Georgia Tech helped the Bulldogs to a top-five strength of record entering Saturday.
Why they could be higher: The committee might drop Ohio State to No. 3 because its strength of schedule is lower, and because of the common opponent in Texas. Georgia beat Texas 35-10, while Ohio State beat the Longhorns 14-7 in the season opener. Some committee members could believe Georgia has a stronger overall résumé.
Need to know: The Bulldogs’ 28-7 SEC title game win was Georgia’s largest margin of victory over Alabama since 1976 (won 21-0).
Why they could be here: The Red Raiders dominated BYU for a second time this season, clinching a top-four finish and a first-round bye as the Big 12 champs. The committee has been impressed by how consistently they’ve owned the margin of victory this season, ranking No. 2 in the country in points margin per game (31.5) and No. 1 in points margin (410) entering Saturday. The Red Raiders’ defense, particularly up front, has also separated Texas Tech from other one-loss contenders. The committee has considered all season that Texas Tech’s lone loss came Oct. 18 at Arizona State when Red Raiders starting quarterback Behren Morton was injured.
Why they could be higher: Texas Tech entered Saturday No. 3 in total efficiency — behind Indiana and Ohio State. Georgia was No. 11. Defensively, the Red Raiders are No. 1.
Need to know: Texas Tech entered Saturday with the worst schedule strength (59) of the top-four contenders, and the lowest strength of record (10th).
Why they could be here: With Georgia and Texas Tech winning their respective conference championship games, the No. 5 spot is likely the Ducks’ Selection Day ceiling. Oregon earned a respectable road win at Washington, a top-25 win against No. 16 USC, and the Nov. 8 victory at Iowa was ultimately against a CFP top-25 team, as the four-loss Hawkeyes came back into the ranking at No. 23 last week. Oregon has also impressed the committee with its top-five ranking in offensive and defensive efficiency. It also doesn’t hurt that the Ducks’ only loss is to the Big Ten champs, Indiana.
Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely that Ohio State drops behind Oregon. They both played the Hoosiers, and they both lost. The committee could compare their wins, but Ohio State’s victory against Texas trumps Oregon’s best win against USC.
Need to know: The No. 5 seed is one of the most desirable because Oregon gets home-field advantage and also plays the No. 12 seed, which this year will likely be James Madison, the Sun Belt champs.
Why they could be here: The selection committee rewarded Ole Miss in its last ranking for its regular-season win against rival Mississippi State, but also bumped up the Rebels because Texas A&M dropped after losing to Texas. The Rebels’ Oct. 18 loss at Georgia will keep them behind the Bulldogs, but the Oct. 25 win at Oklahoma gives Ole Miss an edge against the Sooners. The Rebels’ 45-10 victory Sept. 20 against Tulane is one of their best wins. The Green Wave won the American title and clinched a spot in the CFP.
Why they could be higher: Now that Tulane is the American champ, the committee could consider giving Ole Miss a boost above Oregon for beating the Green Wave. That’s the kind of result that could impact an idle team’s résumé.
Need to know: Even without former coach Lane Kiffin, the Rebels should still be a lock to host a first-round game.
Why they could be here: Because the Aggies didn’t play Alabama or Georgia this season, the SEC championship game didn’t impact their résumé while idle. The Aggies have only one win against a team in the CFP top 25, and that was the 41-40 victory at Notre Dame on Sept. 13. Still, the committee has a lot of respect for the Aggies’ four road wins.
Why they could be higher: It would be surprising to see Texas A&M move because Texas Tech won the Big 12 and won’t sink, and the loser of the Big Ten championship game is unlikely to drop outside of the top four.
Need to know: The Aggies should remain in position to host a first-round home game, and if they remain the No. 7 seed, they would face the No. 10 team, which is the committee’s toughest decision this week. Though the Aggies didn’t play Alabama during the regular season, it’s possible they could meet in the first round.
Why they could be here: The Sooners have earned their spot in the CFP thanks to an elite defense and their ability to continue to find ways to win — even when the offense has been average. The committee respects OU’s back-to-back road victories at Tennessee and Alabama. The Tide’s loss to Georgia doesn’t diminish the value of that win, especially because Alabama can still finish in the CFP field. The Sooners will still have the head-to-head tiebreaker, though, over Alabama. Oklahoma’s loss to Ole Miss will keep the Sooners behind the Rebels, but the committee has kept OU ahead of Texas despite the Sooners’ loss to the Longhorns because Texas has a third loss.
Why they could be higher: It’s unlikely the Sooners move up after being idle because Saturday’s results didn’t directly impact their place.
Need to know: With Alabama losing in the SEC championship game, the Sooners should still be safe as the last at-large team to host a first-round game.
Why they could be here: The Irish benefited from BYU losing to Texas Tech — preventing the Big 12 from having two teams in — and when Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC title game. Arguably the biggest debate in the room all season has been between Notre Dame and Alabama, with the committee members seesawing between the two until Alabama’s Iron Bowl win tipped the scales last week for a few committee members who had been on the fence. With the loss to Georgia, though, the balance should swing back in Notre Dame’s favor, pushing Notre Dame safely into the bracket at No. 9.
Why they could be lower: If Alabama falls behind Miami, and the Canes are right next to Notre Dame, the committee could consider Miami’s head-to-head win over Notre Dame in the season opener and flip them. Even if that happened, though, both teams would still be in, and it would impact only seeding.
Need to know: Notre Dame has been in the committee’s top 10 in all five rankings this season. Last year, under the 12-team format, there were six teams that were ranked in the top 10 of every poll leading up to Selection Day; all six of them made the CFP (Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Indiana, Ohio State, Notre Dame), according to ESPN Research.
Why they could be here: Georgia beat Alabama soundly in the SEC championship game — with the selection members watching together. The group had called out Alabama’s inability to run the ball since the loss to Florida State, and it was exposed again against a relentless Georgia defense, finishing with minus-3 yards on the ground (with minus-28 of that coming from quarterback Ty Simpson). Alabama had the edge against that defense in a 24-21 win Sept. 27 in Athens. Georgia gave up 262 yards in the first half that day as Alabama scored on four of five possessions. The committee will consider Alabama’s win that day against the eventual SEC champs (along with victories against Vanderbilt, Missouri and Tennessee). Alabama’s win against Georgia is better than Miami’s victory against Notre Dame.
Why they could be lower: Alabama was outplayed Saturday and Simpson was off-target. And the Tide lost the season opener to Florida State. If the committee drops the Tide lower, it won’t be as a punishment for playing in the SEC title game — it will be because of how Alabama performed in it.
Need to know: Same as Notre Dame above, Alabama has been ranked in the selection committee’s top 10 every week.
Why they could be here: With Alabama and BYU losing, it’s possible Miami and Notre Dame get in, but for that to happen, Alabama has to drop behind Miami. The Canes are still on the outside in this projection because the committee has believed each week that Notre Dame is the better team, and they were both idle Saturday. The committee would not intentionally put Alabama between Miami and Notre Dame, so it doesn’t have to deal with the head-to-head — that’s not how the voting works — but the Tide could fall there because the committee recognized Alabama was put in a position where it had to beat the same team twice in an additional game. Miami finished the season with two losses to unranked opponents, while Alabama and Notre Dame had losses to top-10 teams.
Why they could be higher: Alabama lost to Florida State, which Miami beat. The selection committee could drop Alabama to No. 11 behind Miami because of its third loss — and poor play — in a lopsided game against Georgia. That would open the door for Miami and Notre Dame to earn the final two at-large spots, regardless of the order.
Need to know: This depends in part on whom the committee is comparing the Canes with — Alabama or Notre Dame. It has been well-documented how close Miami and Notre Dame are. But if the group is comparing Miami and Alabama side-by-side, the Tide could have the edge. Alabama entered Saturday ranked No. 8 in strength of record, while Miami was No. 14. The Canes were No. 44 in strength of schedule, while Bama was No. 11.
Why they could be here: At 11-2, BYU is lumped in the group of two-loss teams at the bottom of the top 12, so the committee will compare the Cougars against Notre Dame and Miami. BYU lost by double digits again, though, to Texas Tech, and that likely will cause the Cougars to drop behind the Canes. BYU has two CFP top-25 wins: in double overtime at current No. 18 Arizona, and 24-21 at current No. 15 Utah. Though BYU’s wins aren’t as impressive as what Texas accomplished against Texas A&M, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma, the committee could separate the two in part by their losses. The Longhorns’ defeat to Florida, along with their other losses, is holding back Texas in the committee meeting room.
Why they could be higher: BYU’s only two losses are to the Big 12 champions and a top-four team. Those two losses are better than Miami’s losses to SMU and Louisville. BYU also entered Saturday ranked No. 6 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, and it won’t be diminished by playing a top-four team. Miami was No. 14 and didn’t play. BYU also had a slight edge over Miami in strength of schedule.
Need to know: BYU will be excluded from the playoff for James Madison, which will earn the No. 12 seed as the Sun Belt champion.
Bracket
Based on the rankings above, the seeding would be:
First-round byes
No. 1 Indiana (Big Ten champ)
No. 2 Ohio State
No. 3 Georgia (SEC champ)
No. 4 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
First-round games
On campus, Dec. 19 and 20
No. 12 James Madison (Sun Belt champ) at No. 5 Oregon
No. 11 Tulane (American champ) at No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Texas A&M
No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl, Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on Dec. 31 and Jan. 1.
No. 12 James Madison/No. 5 Oregon winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech
No. 11 Tulane/No. 6 Ole Miss winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
No. 10 Alabama/No. 7 Texas A&M winner vs. No. 2 Ohio State
No. 9 Notre Dame/No. 8 Oklahoma winner vs. No. 1 Indiana
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