Foreign investors flock to flagship Saudi economic conference — but face less free-flowing cash
A delegate arrives at the King Abdulaziz Conference Centre in Saudi Arabia’s capital Riyadh to attend the Future Investment Initiative (FII) forum.
Fayez Nureldine | Afp | Getty Images
Thousands of financiers, founders and investors are set to descend on the Saudi capital of Riyadh for the eighth edition of the kingdom’s Future Investment Initiative, the flagship economic conference at the heart of Vision 2030 — the multi-trillion dollar plan to modernize and diversify Saudi Arabia’s economy.
Described in past years by some attendees as a bonanza for Saudi cash, fund managers who spoke to CNBC this year draw a distinctly different picture as the kingdom simultaneously upholds more requirements for prospective fundraisers and investors, while also facing a revenue crunch amid lower oil prices and production.
“Without question, it’s gotten way more competitive to attract money from the kingdom,” Omar Yacoub, a partner at U.S.-based investment firm ABS Global, which manages nearly $8 billion in assets, told CNBC. “Everyone and anyone has been going to ‘kiss the rings,’ so to speak, in Riyadh.”
“Competition for capital has heated up, combined with other factors such as Saudis always having a ‘home bias’ towards investing, plus the broader dynamic of a tighter budget throughout the kingdom due to lower oil prices,” Yacoub said. “This has meant that investing internationally has become much more selective.”
As Saudi Arabia moves full steam ahead with its focus on domestic investment, it’s introduced more stringent conditions for foreigners coming to the kingdom to take capital elsewhere. The kingdom’s $925 billion sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund, saw its assets jump 29% to 2.87 trillion Saudi riyals ($765.2 billion) in 2023 — and local investment was a major driver.
Saudi Arabia’s recently-updated Investment Law seeks to attract more foreign investment as well — and it’s set itself a lofty target of $100 billion in annual foreign direct investment by 2030. Currently, that figure is still a long way from that goal as foreign investment has averaged around $12 billion per year since Vision 2030 was announced in 2017.
“It’s no longer about ‘take our money and leave’ — it’s about adding value,” said Fadi Arbid, founding partner and chief investment officer of Dubai-based investment manager Amwal Capital Partners. “Value meaning hiring, developing the asset management ecosystem, creating new products, bringing in talent, and investing in Saudi capital markets also. So it’s multi-faceted investment, not only a pure financial transaction. It’s beyond that.”
‘More disciplined, more rational’
At the same time, the kingdom is taking clear steps to scale back spending, as oil prices fall well below its fiscal breakeven figure and it continues with crude production cuts agreed upon by OPEC+.
That fiscal breakeven oil price — what the kingdom needs a barrel of crude to cost in order to balance its government budget — has risen sharply as Saudi Arabia pours trillions of dollars into giga-project NEOM.
The IMF’s latest forecast in April, put that breakeven figure at $96.20 for 2024; a roughly 19% increase on the year before, and about 28% higher than the current price of a barrel of Brent crude, which was trading at around $72.75 as of Monday morning.
“I don’t think Saudi has the same means that they had literally two years ago,” one regional investor, who requested anonymity in order to speak freely, said. Nonetheless, they added, the kingdom “remains one of the very few countries that still have money to give. It might be somewhat on pause today, but … now it’s more disciplined, more rational.”
Some fund managers with years of experience in the Gulf suggested it may be too little too late for many of the investors making their first forays to the kingdom.
“You should have started that process two, three, four years ago,” Arbid said. However, he added, “For those that are coming in queue now, that doesn’t mean that they shouldn’t position — because it’s a cycle, right? But now, I think they’re more deliberate about it — they say you need to commit to the country.”
One example is the kingdom’s headquarters law, which went into effect on Jan. 1, 2024, and requires foreign companies operating in the Gulf to base their Middle Eastern HQ offices in Riyadh if they want contracts with the Saudi government.
In the shadow of regional war
The glitzy conference, held in the opulent Ritz-Carlton Riyadh, also takes place against the backdrop of regional war and just over a year after Israel launched its war on Hamas in Gaza.
In that time, attacks between Israel and Iranian proxies including Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis have soared, with the Jewish state invading Lebanon in September. The region has been on tenterhooks awaiting Israel’s avowed revenge against Iran for its missile barrage over Tel Aviv and other parts of the country on Oct. 1.
Early on Saturday, Israel struck military sites in Iran targeting missile manufacturing factories. Israel’s military later said it had completed “targeted” attacks in Iran, adding that it was ready to “conduct defensive and offensive action.”
Oil prices and the Saudi economy appear to so far have stayed largely unscathed, dropping 4% early Monday after Israel’s weekend strike on Iran. A key reason for that may be the rapprochement deal the kingdom signed with Iran, brokered by China, in March 2023.
“Saudi has done a phenomenal job recently of shielding itself from geopolitical events,” Arbid said.
That is also aided by the fact that local investors make up the majority of market participants, and local investor confidence is strong. The Tadawul All Shares Index, Saudi Arabia’s leading stock market index, is up 16.48% in the last year.
Still, some analysts in the region warn that the expanding crises in the Middle East have the potential to cause further instability.
“The war has gradually escalated to the point where there is a de-facto regional war,” Aziz Alghashian, director of research at the Observer Research Foundation Middle East, told CNBC. “The ongoing war is not only a geopolitical crisis, but the continuation of it has potential to create more radicalization in and around the region.”
“Attracting FDI and tourism, while maintaining oil prices at a desired level, are key for keeping Saudi Arabia’s mega projects and diversification plans on track,” Alghashian said.
“This of course is complicated by regional war, and so economy and security go very much hand in hand.”
It sounds like Tesla jumped the gun when announcing that Nissan drivers now have access to the Supercharger network in North America.
They will have to wait a bit.
Yesterday, we reported that Tesla added Nissan to the list of automakers with EVs capable of using the Supercharger network in North America.
However, Tesla has since removed Nissan from its list of automakers with access and switched the Japanese automaker back to the “coming soon” list.
Nissan confirmed to Electrek that access is not currently available, but it will be available by the end of the year.
It sounds like a miscommunication on Tesla’s side. We hear that it should be coming soon.
Elon Musk fired Tesla’s entire charging team – seemingly to make an example of its then-head of charging, Rebecca Tinucci, who reportedly disagreed with Musk about making further layoffs following another layoff wave.
Instead of just firing her, Musk decided to fire the entire team and then sent an email to other Tesla managers using the charging team situation as a warning.
Tesla has since had to rehire several former members of its charging team to rebuild the department.
This is believed to have slowed down the opening of the Supercharger network to other automakers in North America. We were told that communications with Tesla’s charging team were difficult to non-existent for those automakers for weeks earlier this year.
As we have previously reported, the situation has definitely slowed down Tesla’s own deployment of Supercharger stations.
Nonetheless, the Supercharger network recently hit the milestone of 60,000 chargers worldwide.
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Europe’s “green dream” Northvolt has filed for bankruptcy protection in the US after a rescue package failed to go through, leaving the battery maker with just one week’s worth of cash in the account. Cofounder and CEO Peter Carlsson, who spearheaded a costly expansion, has also quit.
The Swedish-owned battery maker filed for Chapter 11 in the Southern District of Texas, reports Bloomberg, with $5.8 billion debt. CEO Peter Carlsson, Telsa’s former chief products officer, stepped down from his role as CEO after the filing, but will remain onboard as advisor and director.
According to a statement, Northvolt said that its main factory will maintain business as usual during the reorganization, as the company now has a buffer from creditors, giving it time to restructure the balance sheet. However, the company said that this will not impact its business in Germany, and through the court process, Northvolt now has access to about $145 million in cash collateral. An additional $100 million in debtor-in-possession financing will be added to the pot via one of its customers, the report said.
In recent weeks, Northvolt has been in intense negotiations in the hope of securing a $300 million rescue package to give the company a bit more time to seek longer-term funding. But when that deal fell through, the battery maker was forced to seek protection from creditors via the Chapter 11 filing.
The company still has a $7 billion project in place in Quebec – a new campus that is set to include a cell production plant, battery recycling, and cathode active-material production facilities – and the bankruptcy won’t affect those plans, the company said on its website. “Northvolt Germany and Northvolt North America, subsidiaries of Northvolt AB with projects in Germany and Canada, are financed separately and will continue to operate as usual outside of the Chapter 11 process as key parts of Northvolt’s strategic positioning.”
The plant is expected to have capacity to produce 30 GWh of battery cell every year, with an expansion set to double that output, making it enough to power 1 million EVs. The Canadian government is putting $1.334 billion CND toward the project, with Quebec chipping in another $1.37 billion CND.
Northvolt has hit hard times in recent months, once thought of as Europe’s best shot to homegrown EVs and the makers of “the world’s greenest battery.” Enthusiasm mounted as the company opened the doors to its first plant in Sweden, in the small town of Skelleftea near the Arctic Circle, in 2021. Billions of dollars have been invested into the company, and Volvo, VW, and BMW rushed to place future orders.
All of this enthusiasm has been fueled by a vision to cut dependency on China by creating greener EV batteries using 100 percent recycled nickel, manganese, and cobalt. Plans were put in place to build factories in Gothenburg, in southern Sweden, and Poland, Germany, and Canada, all backed by huge government subsidies. Back in January, the company raised an additional $5 billion, firmly locking in its position as one of Europe’s best-funded startups and recipient of the largest-ever green loan in the EU.
But then things started going south, with Northvolt’s production problems and massive delays forcing BMW to cancel its €2 billion battery cell order with the company. This past May, Northvolt also announced that it pushing back its plans for an IPO until next year. The interim report that followed revealed the dire state of its finances and how far its production had fallen short of goals, with Carlsson admitting he had been “too aggressive” with the company’s expansion plan.
Since Northvolt has put in place a series of changes to reset the company’s course, including bringing onboard a new CFO, leaving the former CFO to focus solely on expansion plans. Plus the company started making cuts, including closing down its research center, Cuberg, in San Francisco and deprioritizing secondary businesses. At the end of September, Northvolt announced that it would cut 1,600 staff from three Swedish sites and about 20 percent of its international workforce.
Last month, Volvo started proceedings to take over their joint venture with Northvolt, while Volkswagen Group’s representative to Northvolt’s board stepped down this month. Sweden, for its part, is ruling out taking a stake to save its homegrown enterprise, Bloomberg reports. Carlsson had said last month that the company needs more than $900 million to permanently shore up its finances.
Photo credit: Northvolt
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Leading yard operation 3PL YMX Logistics has announced plans to deploy fully twenty (20) of Orange EV’s fully electric Class 8 terminal trucks at a number of distribution and manufacturing sites across North America.
As the shipping and logistics industries increasingly move to embrace electrification, yard operations have proven to be an almost ideal use case for EVs, enabling companies like Orange EV, which specialize in yard hostlers or terminal tractors, to drive real, impactful change. To that end, companies like YMX are partnering with Orange EV.
“This relationship between YMX and Orange EV is a significant step forward in transforming yard operations across North America,” said Matt Yearling, CEO of YMX Logistics. “Besides the initial benefits of reduction in emissions and carbon footprint, our customers are also seeing improvements in the overall operational efficiency and seeking to expand. Our team members have also been sharing positive feedback about their new equipment and highlighting the positive impact on their health and day-to-day activities.”
This Orange looks good in blue
One of the most interesting aspects of this story – beyond the Orange EV HUSK-e XP’s almost unbelievable 180,000 lb. GCWR spec. – is that this isn’t a story about California’s ports, which mandate EVs. Instead, YMX is truly deploying these trucks throughout the country, with at least four currently in Chicago (and more on the way).
“Our collaboration with YMX Logistics represents a powerful stride in delivering sustainable yard solutions at scale for enterprise customers,” explains Wayne Mathisen, CEO of Orange EV. “With rising demand for electric yard trucks, our joint efforts ensure that more companies can access the environmental, financial, and operational benefits of electrification … this is a win for the planet, the workforce, and the bottom line of these organizations.”
We interviewed Orange EV founder Kurt Neutgens on The Heavy Equipment Podcast a few months back, but if you’re not familiar with these purpose-built trucks, it’s worth a listen.
HEP-isode 26
SOURCE | IMAGES: YMX Logistics.
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