Foreign investors flock to flagship Saudi economic conference — but face less free-flowing cash
A delegate arrives at the King Abdulaziz Conference Centre in Saudi Arabia’s capital Riyadh to attend the Future Investment Initiative (FII) forum.
Fayez Nureldine | Afp | Getty Images
Thousands of financiers, founders and investors are set to descend on the Saudi capital of Riyadh for the eighth edition of the kingdom’s Future Investment Initiative, the flagship economic conference at the heart of Vision 2030 — the multi-trillion dollar plan to modernize and diversify Saudi Arabia’s economy.
Described in past years by some attendees as a bonanza for Saudi cash, fund managers who spoke to CNBC this year draw a distinctly different picture as the kingdom simultaneously upholds more requirements for prospective fundraisers and investors, while also facing a revenue crunch amid lower oil prices and production.
“Without question, it’s gotten way more competitive to attract money from the kingdom,” Omar Yacoub, a partner at U.S.-based investment firm ABS Global, which manages nearly $8 billion in assets, told CNBC. “Everyone and anyone has been going to ‘kiss the rings,’ so to speak, in Riyadh.”
“Competition for capital has heated up, combined with other factors such as Saudis always having a ‘home bias’ towards investing, plus the broader dynamic of a tighter budget throughout the kingdom due to lower oil prices,” Yacoub said. “This has meant that investing internationally has become much more selective.”
As Saudi Arabia moves full steam ahead with its focus on domestic investment, it’s introduced more stringent conditions for foreigners coming to the kingdom to take capital elsewhere. The kingdom’s $925 billion sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund, saw its assets jump 29% to 2.87 trillion Saudi riyals ($765.2 billion) in 2023 — and local investment was a major driver.
Saudi Arabia’s recently-updated Investment Law seeks to attract more foreign investment as well — and it’s set itself a lofty target of $100 billion in annual foreign direct investment by 2030. Currently, that figure is still a long way from that goal as foreign investment has averaged around $12 billion per year since Vision 2030 was announced in 2017.
“It’s no longer about ‘take our money and leave’ — it’s about adding value,” said Fadi Arbid, founding partner and chief investment officer of Dubai-based investment manager Amwal Capital Partners. “Value meaning hiring, developing the asset management ecosystem, creating new products, bringing in talent, and investing in Saudi capital markets also. So it’s multi-faceted investment, not only a pure financial transaction. It’s beyond that.”
‘More disciplined, more rational’
At the same time, the kingdom is taking clear steps to scale back spending, as oil prices fall well below its fiscal breakeven figure and it continues with crude production cuts agreed upon by OPEC+.
That fiscal breakeven oil price — what the kingdom needs a barrel of crude to cost in order to balance its government budget — has risen sharply as Saudi Arabia pours trillions of dollars into giga-project NEOM.
The IMF’s latest forecast in April, put that breakeven figure at $96.20 for 2024; a roughly 19% increase on the year before, and about 28% higher than the current price of a barrel of Brent crude, which was trading at around $72.75 as of Monday morning.
“I don’t think Saudi has the same means that they had literally two years ago,” one regional investor, who requested anonymity in order to speak freely, said. Nonetheless, they added, the kingdom “remains one of the very few countries that still have money to give. It might be somewhat on pause today, but … now it’s more disciplined, more rational.”
Some fund managers with years of experience in the Gulf suggested it may be too little too late for many of the investors making their first forays to the kingdom.
“You should have started that process two, three, four years ago,” Arbid said. However, he added, “For those that are coming in queue now, that doesn’t mean that they shouldn’t position — because it’s a cycle, right? But now, I think they’re more deliberate about it — they say you need to commit to the country.”
One example is the kingdom’s headquarters law, which went into effect on Jan. 1, 2024, and requires foreign companies operating in the Gulf to base their Middle Eastern HQ offices in Riyadh if they want contracts with the Saudi government.
In the shadow of regional war
The glitzy conference, held in the opulent Ritz-Carlton Riyadh, also takes place against the backdrop of regional war and just over a year after Israel launched its war on Hamas in Gaza.
In that time, attacks between Israel and Iranian proxies including Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis have soared, with the Jewish state invading Lebanon in September. The region has been on tenterhooks awaiting Israel’s avowed revenge against Iran for its missile barrage over Tel Aviv and other parts of the country on Oct. 1.
Early on Saturday, Israel struck military sites in Iran targeting missile manufacturing factories. Israel’s military later said it had completed “targeted” attacks in Iran, adding that it was ready to “conduct defensive and offensive action.”
Oil prices and the Saudi economy appear to so far have stayed largely unscathed, dropping 4% early Monday after Israel’s weekend strike on Iran. A key reason for that may be the rapprochement deal the kingdom signed with Iran, brokered by China, in March 2023.
“Saudi has done a phenomenal job recently of shielding itself from geopolitical events,” Arbid said.
That is also aided by the fact that local investors make up the majority of market participants, and local investor confidence is strong. The Tadawul All Shares Index, Saudi Arabia’s leading stock market index, is up 16.48% in the last year.
Still, some analysts in the region warn that the expanding crises in the Middle East have the potential to cause further instability.
“The war has gradually escalated to the point where there is a de-facto regional war,” Aziz Alghashian, director of research at the Observer Research Foundation Middle East, told CNBC. “The ongoing war is not only a geopolitical crisis, but the continuation of it has potential to create more radicalization in and around the region.”
“Attracting FDI and tourism, while maintaining oil prices at a desired level, are key for keeping Saudi Arabia’s mega projects and diversification plans on track,” Alghashian said.
“This of course is complicated by regional war, and so economy and security go very much hand in hand.”
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Donald Trump will push fossil fuels and undo renewable energy policies, but it ultimately won’t stop clean energy’s momentum.
Trump has always pushed for more oil drilling and fewer regulations, left the Paris Agreement in his first term as president, says he hates “windmills,” promised to scrap offshore wind on “day one” if he won the 2024 election, and calls climate change a “scam.” And now that he’s won, this is a direct threat to the US’s pledge to reach net zero by 2050. After all, federal policy directly impacts the pace of renewable energy growth, especially when it comes to incentives and research funding.
The Biden administration’s groundbreaking Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which has spurred a clean energy boom, will be challenged under Trump. Because Republican states have received 80% of the IRA’s money with which they’ve built factories and created thousands of jobs, a complete IRA repeal is unlikely. What’s more probable is that the Republicans phase out tax credits earlier than planned or cap overall funding.
Federal financial support for innovative technologies and projects could also take a hit. Brendan Bell, COO of Aligned Climate Capital, who formerly led the US Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office, told Electrek:
My partner Peter and I led the DOE Loan Program Office under President Obama. We supported the first utility-scale solar and storage projects, as well as early EV investments – including the first loan to Tesla.
Today, these technologies are commercialized and are propelling the clean energy transition. None of it would have been possible if these programs had been cut off 10 years ago.
Put simply, Trump can’t turn back the tide of clean energy – but he could delay tomorrow’s solutions and the birth of new industries.
BloombergNEF’s “2H 2024 US Clean Energy Market Outlook,” released at the end of October, examined the worst-case scenario, where control of both the Senate and the House leads to a full repeal of the IRA tax credits:
The wind, solar, and energy storage sectors jointly see a 17% drop in total new capacity additions over 2025-2035, with 927 gigawatts (GW) of cumulative build compared to 1,118GW in BNEF’s base case forecast. Wind sees the greatest fall in activity in this scenario with a 35% drop, followed by energy storage at 15% and solar at 13% relative to BNEF’s base case.
That’s a blow we can’t afford at a time when we need to reduce emissions by 50% from 2005 levels by 2030 to avoid climate disasters becoming even worse than they already are.
But all is not lost. The clean energy market isn’t solely driven by federal policy. Over the last decade, solar, wind, and EVs have become more cost-competitive and popular. State policies play a huge role too, and many states are committed to their own clean energy goals regardless of who sits in the White House. States like California, New York, and Washington have ambitious targets to combat climate change, and deep red Texas is No. 1 in the US for both solar and wind.
Corporations are also key players. Companies like Amazon, Google, and Walmart have committed to going 100% renewable, and they’re not about to reverse course. This demand keeps the market for renewables strong. Plus, there’s significant public support for clean energy jobs, and renewables create more employment opportunities than fossil fuels in many regions of the country.
JD Dillon, chief marketing officer of California-based solar tech manufacturer Tigo Energy (Nasdaq: TYGO), said to Electrek, “The march toward renewable clean energy is both inevitable and the right thing to do. In a perfect world, we would eliminate partisanship from the renewable energy conversation because everyone benefits from a cleaner environment and affordable energy. Unfortunately, none of us live in said perfect world.”
The US clean energy sector may slow down, but it’s hard to stop a train that has already left the station. What consequences this slower-moving train will have for the US and the world remains to be seen.
Read more: Trump says he’ll end the EV mandate. The only problem: there isn’t one.
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The world’s largest EV battery maker is advancing a new type of battery, promising higher energy density. According to a new local report, CATL is investing heavily while ramping up its workforce to bring all-solid-state EV batteries to market.
With trial production reportedly kicking off, we could see CATL launch all-solid-state EV batteries sooner than expected.
According to a new local report from LatePost (via CnEVPost), CATL has entered the trial production phase of 20 Ah samples. The news comes after the EV battery giant added over 1,000 workers to its R&D team this year.
The report claimed that CATL is now focused on the final Sulfide phase and has already commenced trial production of 20 Ah samples.
The company’s solution has an energy density of up to 500 Wh/kg for lithium ternary batteries, 40% more than current batteries. However, the report said charging speed and cycle life are not quite where they need to be.
At 20 Ah, the battery solution is finalized and ready for its next stage, production tech exploration.
CATL is advancing all-solid-state EV batteries
The report says after that it’s mainly manufacturing hurdles, that can be overcome with a bigger workforce.
In April, CATL’s chief scientist, Wu Kai, announced that the company had developed a verification platform for 10 Ah all-solid-state EV battery cells. Wu also said CATL aimed to produce all-solid-state EV batteries in small volumes in 2027, the first time the news was made public.
In September, the company’s chairman, Robin Zeng, said CATL’s research into the new battery tech was “second to none.”
Several companies, including Toyota, Mercedes-Benz, Stellantis, and others, are betting on solid-state EV batteries as the future.
According to data from CnEVPost, CATL is dominating the global EV battery market with a 36.7% share through September 2024.
China’s BYD is second with a 16.4% share of the market. BYD is also planning to launch solid-state batteries. At the September 2024 World New Energy Congress, BYD’s head scientist and engineer, Lian Yubo, said solid-state EV batteries could be widely used in five years.
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