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Budgets are all about numbers.

In the coming 24 hours, we’ll be engulfed with all sorts of figures – about the state of the economy, about the size of the deficit, about the fiscal rules the new chancellor is planning to introduce in the coming months.

But in fact most budgets, this one included, can really be boiled down to the difference between two big numbers.

Politics live blog: Budget 2024 latest developments

Total government spending and total government receipts.

Right now the UK government is spending just over £1.2trn a year and bringing in just over £1.1trn in taxes and receipts.

In other words, this country is spending more than it generates in tax receipts.

So it has to borrow the difference.

That borrowing, also known as the deficit, is (as you’ve already probably worked out from the above numbers) around £100bn a year.

And politicians, including the chancellor, spend rather a lot of time fretting about the deficit.

Graph graph

Indeed, the main objective of the various different fiscal rules they’ve imposed on themselves in recent decades has been to narrow the gap between those two big numbers.

Broadly speaking, the easiest way to do this is to cut something few people notice in the short run – government investment.

When he came into office in 2010, George Osborne cut a lot of parts of public spending, but he absolutely slashed the amount the public sector spent on buildings, infrastructure and machinery – capital spending.

Having lifted the total briefly after the pandemic, Jeremy Hunt was planning a similar fall in investment in the coming years.

Rachel Reeves has said repeatedly ahead of the budget that she plans to invest far more in the coming years.

This is a noble goal, given investment tends to benefit future generations, however, it will not be cheap in the short run.

pic pic graph

Indeed, keeping investment spending at current levels will cost roughly £30bn a year by the end of this decade.

So how does the chancellor square that with her fiscal rules?

Well, one part of the answer is that she’s planning to increase the revenues coming into the Exchequer, reportedly via higher national insurance charges for insurers.

But the other part of the answer is that she’s changing her fiscal rules as well.

Budget 2024: Rachel Reeves vs the fiscal rules

The long and the short of it is that Ms Reeves looks likely to choose a set of fiscal rules that ignore investment spending.

Both her updated debt rule and her current budget rule essentially omit capital spending – although they include debt interest costs, so she can’t just borrow willy-nilly.

Read more:
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That might sound like fiscal jiggery-pokery, and some in the market fret that investors will soon take fright as a result.

Indeed, some suggest they already are, and point to the fact the UK’s cost of government borrowing – as measured by the benchmark 10-year bond yield – has risen from under 4% to nearly 4.3% in the past month alone.

However, this is a slight misreading of this market, which is as affected by global economic factors and central bank action as much as by UK budgetary policy.

Indeed, compare the recent changes in the UK’s borrowing rates with those in Germany and the US and British government bond yields are close to where they usually trade in the run up to a budget.

And they are far, far below where they were in the run-up to Liz Truss’s mini-budget.

graph

Even so, there are bound to be a few unexpected surprises and some relevant new data points in this fiscal event.

It is a budget after all.

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Wes Streeting denies Labour has made ‘mistakes’ with ‘unpopular’ policies despite poor local election results

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Wes Streeting denies Labour has made 'mistakes' with 'unpopular' policies despite poor local election results

Health Secretary Wes Streeting has defended “unpopular” policies such as the cut to the winter fuel allowance despite Labour’s poor performance at the local elections.

Mr Streeting denied the government had made any mistakes when asked whether the policy was partly to blame for the party losing 189 council seats less than a year since the General Election.

Since coming into government last July, Labour has enacted a number of policies that were not in its manifesto.

These include means-testing winter fuel payments for pensioners, increasing employers’ national insurance contributions and slashing £5bn from the welfare bill.

Asked what mistakes his government had made so far that had led to its drubbing at the ballot box, Mr Streeting told Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips: “Well, we will make plenty of mistakes.”

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Pressed again on whether he believed “mistakes” had been made, the health secretary replied: “No. When we made those choices, we knew they would be unpopular. And we knew that they would be opposed.

“The reason we made those choices is because we genuinely believe they’re the right choices to get the country out of the massive hole it was left in. And right across the board. Whether it’s the NHS, whether it’s schools, whether it’s prisons, whether it’s our defence and security, whether it’s crime and policing, there were enormous challenges facing this country when we came in.

“And we’ve had to make big and sometimes unpopular decisions so that we can face those challenges and deal with them. People might thank us if we just kind of go for the easy but we want to make the right choices.”

Some Labour MPs have urged the government to change direction, with one telling Sky News the cut to winter fuel was a “catastrophic error” that must be “remedied” if the party is to see any improvement in public opinion.

Others have warned that in courting Reform voters, the party risks fracturing its coalition of voters on the left who may be tempted by the Liberal Democrats and Green Party.

However, in the aftermath of the local elections, Sir Keir Starmer suggested the poor results meant he needed to go “further and faster” in delivering his existing agenda.

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Inside Reform’s election success

The real victor to emerge from Thursday’s local elections was Reform UK, which won control of 10 councils and picked up 677 council seats largely at the expense of the Conservatives in the south.

However, Reform also won the Runcorn by-election from Labour by just six votes, as well as control of Doncaster Council from Labour – the only local authority it had control of in this set of elections – in a significant win for Nigel Farage and his party.

The Reform UK leader declared that two-party politics was now “finished” and that his party was now the official “opposition” to Labour.

Asked whether the results meant that Labour would now treat Reform as “your most serious opposition”, Mr Streeting said: ” I certainly do treat them as a serious opposition force.”

“As I say, I don’t know whether it will be Reform or the Conservatives that emerge as the main threat,” he added.

“I don’t have a horse in that race, but like alien versus predator, I don’t really want either one to win.”

Read more:
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Reform has put the two traditional parties on notice

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Reform UK are ‘fighting force’

Tory Party chairman Nigel Huddleston said Reform UK was not just a protest party and that Mr Farage was “a force in British politics”.

He told Trevor Phillips: “But the one thing about Nigel Farage is, and we’re seeing this again and again and again, he is a populist.

“He is increasingly saying everything that anybody wants to hear. He’s trying to be all things to all men.”

“We are establishing ourselves as a credible alternative government based on sound conservative principles and values and our values and our principles, and therefore our policies, will define the future of our party,” he added.

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It is ‘feasible’ Nigel Farage could be the next prime minister, says Kemi Badenoch

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It is 'feasible' Nigel Farage could be the next prime minister, says Kemi Badenoch

Kemi Badenoch has admitted it is “feasible” that Nigel Farage could become the next prime minister.

The Tory leader told the BBC’s Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg programme Mr Farage’s party was “expressing the feeling of frustration that a lot of people around the country are feeling” – but added it was her job to “come up with answers and solutions”.

Asked if it was feasible that Mr Farage could be the next prime minister, she cited how Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese had won re-election this weekend.

“As I said, anything is feasible,” she said. “Anthony Albanese: people were writing him off. He has just won a landslide, but my job is to make sure that he [Farage] does not become prime minister because he does not have the answers to the problems the country is facing.”

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Could Nigel Farage be prime minister?

Asked what Mr Farage was doing right, Ms Badenoch said: “He is expressing the feeling of frustration that a lot of people around the country are feeling.

“But he also doesn’t have a record in government like the two main parties do. Now he’s going to be running some councils. We’ll see how that goes.”

Mr Farage was the undoubted winner of Thursday’s local elections, in which 23 councils were up for grabs.

His party picked up 677 council seats and took control of 10 councils.

By contrast, the Conservatives lost 677 council seats as well as control of 18 councils in what was their worst local elections performance on record.

Mr Farage said the outcome spelt the end of two-party politics and that his party was now the official “opposition” to Labour – with the Tories having been rendered a “waste of space”.

Read more:
Reform has put the two traditional parties on notice

‘I get it’: Starmer responds after losing Runcorn by-election

Ms Badenoch said she believed the vote for Mr Farage on Thursday was partly down to “protest” but added: “That doesn’t mean we sit back. We are going to come out fighting.

“We are going to come out with the policies that people want to see, but what we are not going to do is rush out and tell the public things that are not true just so we can win votes.

“This is not about winning elections; this is about fixing our country. Yes, of course, you need to win elections to do that, but you also need a credible plan.”

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‘Farage is a force in British politics’

Conservative co-chairman Nigel Huddleston sought to play down the threat from Reform UK, telling Sky News: “When they’re in a position of delivering things, that’s when the shine comes off.”

He told Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips: “The one thing about Nigel Farage is, and we’re seeing this again and again and again, he is a populist.

“He is increasingly saying everything that anybody wants to hear. He’s trying to be all things to all men.”

“We are establishing ourselves as a credible alternative government based on sound conservative principles and values and our values and our principles, and therefore our policies, will define the future of our party,” he added.

Asked whether the results meant that Labour would now treat Reform as “your most serious opposition”, Health Secretary Wes Streeting told Trevor Phillips: ” I certainly do treat them as a serious opposition force.”

“As I say, I don’t know whether it will be Reform or the Conservatives that emerge as the main threat,” he added.

“I don’t have a horse in that race, but like alien versus predator, I don’t really want either one to win.”

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Pro-crypto Democrats pull support for stablecoin bill in last minute

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Pro-crypto Democrats pull support for stablecoin bill in last minute

Pro-crypto Democrats pull support for stablecoin bill in last minute

A group of US Senate Democrats known for supporting the crypto industry have said they would oppose a Republican-led stablecoin bill if it moves forward in its current form.

The move threatens to stall legislation that could establish the first US regulatory framework for stablecoins, according to a May 3 report from Politico.

Per the report, nine Senate Democrats said in a joint statement that the bill “still has numerous issues that must be addressed.” They warned they would not support a procedural vote to advance the legislation unless changes are made.

Among the signatories were Senators Ruben Gallego, Mark Warner, Lisa Blunt Rochester and Andy Kim — all of whom had previously backed the bill when it passed through the Senate Banking Committee in March.

The bill, introduced by Senator Bill Hagerty, is formally known as the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act.

Related: Fed’s Powell reasserts support for stablecoin legislation

Senate prepares to vote on stablecoin bill

The Senate is expected to begin floor consideration of the bill in the coming days, with the first vote potentially taking place next week.

The bill has been championed by the crypto industry as a landmark step toward regulatory clarity. However, the Democrats’ about-face reflects growing unease within the party.

Although revisions were made to the bill after its committee approval to address Democratic concerns, the lawmakers said the changes fell short. They called for stronger safeguards related to Anti-Money Laundering, national security, foreign issuers, and accountability measures for noncompliant actors.

The statement was also signed by Senators Raphael Warnock, Catherine Cortez Masto, Ben Ray Luján, John Hickenlooper and Adam Schiff.

Pro-crypto Democrats pull support for stablecoin bill in last minute
A copy of the statement. Source: Alex Thorn

Senator Kirsten Gillibrand and Senator Angela Alsobrooks were absent from the list, who co-sponsored the bill alongside Hagerty.

Despite their objections, the Democratic senators emphasized their commitment to shaping responsible crypto regulation. They reportedly said they “are eager to continue working with our colleagues to address these issues.”

Related: US banks are ‘free to begin supporting Bitcoin’

Crypto needs a stablecoin bill

On April 27, Caitlin Long, founder and CEO of Custodia Bank, criticized the US Federal Reserve for quietly maintaining a key anti-crypto policy that favors big-bank-issued stablecoins, despite relaxing crypto partnership rules for banks.

Long explained that while the Fed recently rescinded four prior crypto guidelines, a Jan. 27, 2023, statement was left intact in coordination with the Biden administration.

The guidance, according to Long, blocks banks from engaging directly with crypto assets and prohibits them from issuing stablecoins on permissionless blockchains.

However, Long noted that once a federal stablecoin bill becomes law, it could override the Fed’s stance. “Congress should hurry up,” she urged.

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