Harris or Trump? Six ways the US election could play out – and why it all comes down to Pennsylvania
An election ‘too close to call’ is a cliché as old as democracy. But this year’s US election really is.
Despite the Democrats’ remarkable turnaround in the polls after Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden as nominee in August, the US Electoral College system – and Donald Trump’s loyal fanbase – has by no means guaranteed her victory.
This is because, although it’s the presidential and vice presidential nominees on the ballot paper, technically, Americans vote for electors who formally back their choice of candidate.
States have different numbers of electors depending on their size – with 538 in total. Winning the presidency requires getting at least 270 (more than half).
Historically, most states almost never change hands. Taking these so-called ‘safe’ states together, Ms Harris is just ahead of Mr Trump with 225 Electoral College votes to his 219.
Beyond that, the two parties focus almost their entire campaigns on just seven ‘swing’ states that determine the final outcome. They are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.
Pennsylvania alone often holds the key to the White House. This is because it has the most Electoral College votes of the swing states and whoever wins it is also likely to win neighbouring battlegrounds Michigan and Wisconsin – as they have similar demographics.
Here we look at the different ways both candidates could get to that magic number of 270 Electoral College votes.
In 2020, Joe Biden took all the swing states apart from North Carolina. This year, the polls there are neck-and-neck.
Although a 2020 re-run scenario would not require Ms Harris to take North Carolina, she would have to win Georgia.
Some polling has suggested the Democrats have lost support among black and Hispanic voters since the last election, which makes holding both Georgia and Arizona more difficult – particularly with Mr Trump’s support bases there.
Ms Harris is also leaning strongly on younger voters.
“This time around there is uncertainty around the groups that Harris is relying on,” Professor Shaun Bowler, a political scientist at the University of California Riverside, says. “Younger voters tend not to vote as regularly as older ones – and we have no real data to go on for people voting in their first election.”
A much easier route to a Kamala Harris presidency would be to focus solely on Pennsylvania and its so-called ‘blue wall’ neighbours.
Pennsylvania already has a popular Democrat governor – Josh Shapiro – and John Fetterman’s mid-term victory in 2022 saw one of its Republican seats in the Senate turn blue.
“It seems more winnable than the other swing states,” says Professor Bowler. “Aside from a very popular Democrat governor, it also has an established South Asian community around Philadelphia.”
But Professor John Lapinski, director of elections at Sky’s partner network NBC News, warns: “No one knows who’s ahead in Pennsylvania, that’s why this race is so close.”
In 2016, the Republicans took Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin – and Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina.
Mr Trump’s popularity with white, non-educated voters could see him take the so-called ‘blue wall’ states in the north again this time.
Polling has also appeared to lure the Democrats into a false sense of security along the blue wall previously. Hillary Clinton was way ahead of Mr Trump in neighbouring Wisconsin in 2016 – but ended up losing there. More generally, polls have tended to overestimate levels of Democrat support in recent years.
Professor Lapinski adds: “Historically there’s been an underestimation of Trump. A lot of work has gone on to try to correct that in the polls.
“But while Harris is investing more money in most of these states than Trump – you can never underestimate his ability to turn out people.”
With the most campaign resources devoted to Pennsylvania on both sides, Mr Trump could be victorious there – meaning he would only have to secure Georgia and North Carolina to get to 270.
The attempted assassination attempt on him in July also happened at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. But despite the Trump campaign’s efforts to use it to his advantage, Mr Biden’s decision to step aside days later appears to have overshadowed it.
“It’s been such an eventful and fast-paced period that it has been pushed down the list of things people are thinking about,” Professor Bowler says.
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Georgia was one of the key states Mr Trump falsely claimed was “stolen” from him in 2020 and where he is still facing charges of election interference. Georgian Republicans are still trying to push through changes that would see officials allowed to refuse to certify the vote count there.
This is a tight path to victory for Mr Trump – as it puts him at exactly 270 Electoral College votes.
It also requires him to win Maine’s second congressional district – where there is no ‘winner takes all’ approach and Electoral College votes are divided between districts – but he won there in 2016 and 2020.
Winning in the South won’t ensure a Trump victory on its own. The former president would also have to win one northern swing state.
This could be Pennsylvania – as most campaign resources are being focused there – or the smallest in terms of Electoral College votes – Wisconsin.
Wisconsin borders Minnesota, however, where the Democrats’ vice president pick Tim Walz is governor. This means his campaign will have easy access to Wisconsin voters, making things “harder for Trump”, Professor Bowler says.
Ultimately, the Trump campaign could lose out on the big fight for Pennsylvania as long as it gets all four southern battlegrounds.
There is an alternative tiebreak scenario if the Democrats dominate in the North and the Republicans in the South.
Like in Maine, Nebraska’s Electoral College votes are awarded by Congressional district. Nebraska’s second Congressional district has emerged as its own swing over recent years.
If Ms Harris wins Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan – but loses Nebraska second – she’ll be tied with Mr Trump on 269 votes.
Mr Biden won the district by a bigger margin than Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in 2020, however.
Nebraska Republicans tried to change voting rules to favour Mr Trump – but one state senator’s refusal to back the plan meant it failed to go through.
A tiebreak would also emerge if Mr Trump failed to hold Maine’s second district.
While neither of these scenarios is very likely, they effectively translate as a Trump victory. This is because the deciding vote would then go to the House – where Republicans have a majority.
Data reporting by Daniel Dunford, senior data journalist
When they made America truly great its backbone was forged in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania.
The steel for 80% of Manhattan’s skyscrapers, many of the US Navy’s battleships, and even the entire San Francisco Golden Gate Bridge, all came from its blast furnaces in the hills north of Philadelphia.
Its mammoth steel plants stretched for almost five miles.
They lie empty and unused, now a huge open-air museum for guided tours led by former plant workers like Don Young.
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The 87-year-old has been married to Barbara for 20 years, but their marriage has been tested in recent months, as have many others in the most divisive presidential election in living memory.
Both Republicans, she is for Donald Trump, he is emphatically not.
Mr Trump, I pointed out, claimed he could make America great again. Did he believe him?
“No, I do not believe him. My wife does,” he said. “I’ve seen the rise of dictators in history.
“As much as I am a studier of the history of industry, I’m also a studier of the history of politics and world politics. And, you know, Mr Trump’s campaign literally, literally mirrors that of Adolf Hitler.”
His wife sees Mr Trump completely differently: “I absolutely do not agree with that. And I’m sorry to hear my husband say this. And I actually believe we have seen what President Trump can do and how our country was when he was in office.”
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Mr Young now offers tours of the former steel plants
Trump ‘is the future for America’, Ms Young says
Their town has recovered from the collapse of Bethlehem Steel. But it’s the state of America that worries Ms Young now.
And it is Mr Trump who can save it, she said.
“He is the future for America,” she said. “I don’t want to see people coming over our border. We’ve had women murdered and raped by illegal immigrants. Who wants their children dead as a result of fentanyl, which comes over the border?”
Trump is ‘going to run America into the ground’
Her husband’s view is diametrically opposed.
“I think he’s going to run America into the ground because he does not observe any of the Democratic norms that his predecessors have,” he said.
“He didn’t observe them when he was in office. And so that’s just a window on what will happen in this coming term.”
Pennsylvania will likely determine presidential election result
Their marriage mirrors the state of play in the place they live in.
Pennsylvania is on a knife edge, say the polls, split right down the middle and the outcome here will likely determine the result on election day in this most important of swing states.
They can agree on one thing. They cannot wait for this election to be over.
Mr Young said their marriage can survive a Trump victory. Ms Young thinks so too.
The closest, nastiest, most divisive presidential election in living memory will be over soon. The bitterness and division that has plagued it less so in this deeply polarised country.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have won baseball’s World Series for the second time in five years but the celebrations were marred by looting and violence.
The Dodgers took the title by beating the New York Yankees 4-1 in the best-of-seven final in New York on Wednesday night, US time.
But soon after the match ended and jubilant Dodgers fans spilled on to the streets to celebrate, there were reports of a bus being set on fire, shops being looted and fireworks thrown at police in scenes of “absolute chaos” in downtown LA.
Los Angeles Dodgers players celebrate winning baseball’s World Series. Pic: AP
At around 10.45pm, the Los Angeles Police Department (LAPD) said it received reports of “looting at several stores in the area of 8th and Broadway”.
Ordering people to “leave the area immediately” on X, the force reposted a video of looters raiding a Nike store where a door had been removed so thieves could get in.
A Dodgers fan celebrates in Los Angeles. Pic: Reuters
Several dispersal orders were issued for different locations in the city, including in streets close to the Dodger Stadium in the Elysian Park area.
A bus was set on fire as part of the disorder.
Eyewitness and LA resident Taylor Rosa, 27, told Sky’s US partner network NBC News it was “absolute chaos”, as people “got out of control and started looting and jumping on top of a bus”.
Among the comments on Instagram were “damn embarrassment” and “they act like the Dodgers lost”.
Multiple arrests were made throughout the night in Echo Park and the downtown area, according to the Los Angeles Scanner account on X.
The LAPD later spoke of a “hostile crowd” and that “various projectiles”, including rocks and bottles, were being thrown at officers.
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Meanwhile, two Yankees fans missed the end of the series after they were banned for interfering with play during the fourth match, the New York team’s only win.
They grappled with the Dodgers’s Mookie Betts as he tried to catch a shot by the fence at the Yankee Stadium on Tuesday night.
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As Betts leapt at the wall and caught the ball, one fan grabbed his glove with both hands and wrenched the ball out, as another grabbed Betts’s other hand.
They were thrown out of the game and banned from the next one.
The Dodgers beat the Yankees 7-6 in game five. Pic: AP
Dodgers star Shohei Ohtani with the trophy. Pic: AP
The last time the Dodgers won the title, in 2020, the season was shortened by the COVID pandemic, which prevented them from staging a victory parade.
This year’s parade is to take place on Friday.
Elon Musk has been summoned to an emergency court hearing on Thursday over the $1m prizes he has been awarding registered voters in swing states.
The Tesla and X chief executive has been ordered by a judge in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania to address a civil case by the city’s top prosecutor to stop Mr Musk and his political action committee, America PAC, from giving the cash away.
The suit accuses Mr Musk of operating an illegal lottery and trying to influence voters in next week’s presidential election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Mr Musk and his PAC are backing Mr Trump, the Republican nominee.
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The controversial billionaire promised to give $1m (£772,000) each day to resgistered voters in swing states who have signed his online free speech and gun rights petition.
The first $1m was awarded to a man named John Dreher during a campaign event in Pennsylvania on 19 October.
Both Mr Trump and Ms Harris have made repeated visits to the state as they fight for its 19 electoral votes.
Mr Musk is the world’s richest person and is worth $274bn (£210bn), according to Forbes, so the approximate $17m (£13m) he’s vowed to give away is a tiny fraction of his wealth.
The 53-year-old had donated $75m (£58m) to American PAC in the period up to mid-October.
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Documents filed by Philadelphia’s district attorney Larry Krasner also revealed that the lawsuit against Mr Musk had “triggered an avalanche of [social media] posts from Musk’s followers,” many of whom “made antisemitic attacks on Krasner”.
The attorney asked for enhanced security for the hearing, which was originally scheduled for Friday, after users on X had published Mr Krasner’s home address.
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America PAC is one of several major political action committees in the US.
Such groups can raise and spend unlimited amounts of money in support of political candidates, on the condition that they do not coordinate with their campaigns or give money to them.
Mr Trump has said he will give Mr Musk a government job if he becomes president again.
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