Harris or Trump? Six ways the US election could play out – and why it all comes down to Pennsylvania
An election ‘too close to call’ is a cliché as old as democracy. But this year’s US election really is.
Despite the Democrats’ remarkable turnaround in the polls after Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden as nominee in August, the US Electoral College system – and Donald Trump’s loyal fanbase – has by no means guaranteed her victory.
This is because, although it’s the presidential and vice presidential nominees on the ballot paper, technically, Americans vote for electors who formally back their choice of candidate.
States have different numbers of electors depending on their size – with 538 in total. Winning the presidency requires getting at least 270 (more than half).
Historically, most states almost never change hands. Taking these so-called ‘safe’ states together, Ms Harris is just ahead of Mr Trump with 225 Electoral College votes to his 219.
Beyond that, the two parties focus almost their entire campaigns on just seven ‘swing’ states that determine the final outcome. They are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.
Pennsylvania alone often holds the key to the White House. This is because it has the most Electoral College votes of the swing states and whoever wins it is also likely to win neighbouring battlegrounds Michigan and Wisconsin – as they have similar demographics.
Here we look at the different ways both candidates could get to that magic number of 270 Electoral College votes.
In 2020, Joe Biden took all the swing states apart from North Carolina. This year, the polls there are neck-and-neck.
Although a 2020 re-run scenario would not require Ms Harris to take North Carolina, she would have to win Georgia.
Some polling has suggested the Democrats have lost support among black and Hispanic voters since the last election, which makes holding both Georgia and Arizona more difficult – particularly with Mr Trump’s support bases there.
Ms Harris is also leaning strongly on younger voters.
“This time around there is uncertainty around the groups that Harris is relying on,” Professor Shaun Bowler, a political scientist at the University of California Riverside, says. “Younger voters tend not to vote as regularly as older ones – and we have no real data to go on for people voting in their first election.”
A much easier route to a Kamala Harris presidency would be to focus solely on Pennsylvania and its so-called ‘blue wall’ neighbours.
Pennsylvania already has a popular Democrat governor – Josh Shapiro – and John Fetterman’s mid-term victory in 2022 saw one of its Republican seats in the Senate turn blue.
“It seems more winnable than the other swing states,” says Professor Bowler. “Aside from a very popular Democrat governor, it also has an established South Asian community around Philadelphia.”
But Professor John Lapinski, director of elections at Sky’s partner network NBC News, warns: “No one knows who’s ahead in Pennsylvania, that’s why this race is so close.”
In 2016, the Republicans took Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin – and Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina.
Mr Trump’s popularity with white, non-educated voters could see him take the so-called ‘blue wall’ states in the north again this time.
Polling has also appeared to lure the Democrats into a false sense of security along the blue wall previously. Hillary Clinton was way ahead of Mr Trump in neighbouring Wisconsin in 2016 – but ended up losing there. More generally, polls have tended to overestimate levels of Democrat support in recent years.
Professor Lapinski adds: “Historically there’s been an underestimation of Trump. A lot of work has gone on to try to correct that in the polls.
“But while Harris is investing more money in most of these states than Trump – you can never underestimate his ability to turn out people.”
With the most campaign resources devoted to Pennsylvania on both sides, Mr Trump could be victorious there – meaning he would only have to secure Georgia and North Carolina to get to 270.
The attempted assassination attempt on him in July also happened at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. But despite the Trump campaign’s efforts to use it to his advantage, Mr Biden’s decision to step aside days later appears to have overshadowed it.
“It’s been such an eventful and fast-paced period that it has been pushed down the list of things people are thinking about,” Professor Bowler says.
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Georgia was one of the key states Mr Trump falsely claimed was “stolen” from him in 2020 and where he is still facing charges of election interference. Georgian Republicans are still trying to push through changes that would see officials allowed to refuse to certify the vote count there.
This is a tight path to victory for Mr Trump – as it puts him at exactly 270 Electoral College votes.
It also requires him to win Maine’s second congressional district – where there is no ‘winner takes all’ approach and Electoral College votes are divided between districts – but he won there in 2016 and 2020.
Winning in the South won’t ensure a Trump victory on its own. The former president would also have to win one northern swing state.
This could be Pennsylvania – as most campaign resources are being focused there – or the smallest in terms of Electoral College votes – Wisconsin.
Wisconsin borders Minnesota, however, where the Democrats’ vice president pick Tim Walz is governor. This means his campaign will have easy access to Wisconsin voters, making things “harder for Trump”, Professor Bowler says.
Ultimately, the Trump campaign could lose out on the big fight for Pennsylvania as long as it gets all four southern battlegrounds.
There is an alternative tiebreak scenario if the Democrats dominate in the North and the Republicans in the South.
Like in Maine, Nebraska’s Electoral College votes are awarded by Congressional district. Nebraska’s second Congressional district has emerged as its own swing over recent years.
If Ms Harris wins Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan – but loses Nebraska second – she’ll be tied with Mr Trump on 269 votes.
Mr Biden won the district by a bigger margin than Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in 2020, however.
Nebraska Republicans tried to change voting rules to favour Mr Trump – but one state senator’s refusal to back the plan meant it failed to go through.
A tiebreak would also emerge if Mr Trump failed to hold Maine’s second district.
While neither of these scenarios is very likely, they effectively translate as a Trump victory. This is because the deciding vote would then go to the House – where Republicans have a majority.
Data reporting by Daniel Dunford, senior data journalist
US
Donald Trump refuses to rule out military force over Panama Canal and Greenland – as he warns NATO to spend more
US president-elect Donald Trump has refused to rule out military or economic action to seize the Panama Canal and Greenland – as he said he believes NATO spending should be increased to 5% per member state.
Speaking at Mar-a-Lago, Florida, Mr Trump made a series of sweeping claims on what his policies could look like when he takes office on 20 January.
He said he believes NATO spending should be increased to 5% per member state, while he also declared US control of Greenland and the Panama Canal as vital to American national security.
The 78-year-old Republican also spoke of relations with Canada, as well as addressing his position on the Middle East and the war in Ukraine.
Sky News takes a look at some of the key claims brought up during the conference.
NATO
Mr Trump claimed “nobody knows more about NATO than I do”, before adding: “If it weren’t for me, NATO wouldn’t exist right now.
“I raised from countries that weren’t paying their bills, over $680bn. I saved NATO, but NATO is taking advantage of us.”
The president-elect also said members of NATO should be contributing 5% of their GDPs (gross domestic product) to defence spending – the previous target has been 2%.
Donald Trump speaking at Mar-a-Lago. Pic: Reuters
Greenland and Panama Canal
Asked if he can reassure the world he won’t resort to military action or economic coercion in trying to get control of the areas, he said: “No, I can’t assure you on either of those two.”
“But, I can say this, we need them for economic security.”
He didn’t add any further detail around Greenland – which he has recently suggested the US should own or control – but he said the Panama Canal “was built for our military”.
He said the canal was “vital” to the country and China was “operating” it.
Mr Trump criticised the late Jimmy Carter for his role in signing over the Panama Canal to Panama during his presidency, saying it’s “a disgrace what took place” and “Jimmy Carter gave it to them for one dollar.”
Canada
A day after Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced he was stepping down, Mr Trump said he believed the US’ northern neighbour should become the 51st US state.
He mocked Mr Trudeau by calling him “governor” rather than prime minister.
He argued the US and Canada combined would amount to an “economic force” that would “really be something”.
“There isn’t a snowball’s chance in hell that Canada would become part of the United States,” Mr Trudeau responded.
Israel-Hamas war
Israel has been waging a 15-month war on the militant group ruling Gaza, Hamas, since they launched an unprecedented attack on southern Israel on 7 October which saw 1,200 people massacred and about 250 taken hostage, many of whom remain in captivity.
Mr Trump said: “If those hostages aren’t back by the time I get into office, all hell will break out in the Middle East.”
Nearly 46,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s assault on Gaza, according to Hamas-run health officials in the enclave.
Analysis: Trump’s warning risks becoming less threatening
Ukraine war
Referring to Russia’s ongoing full-scale war against its smaller neighbour, Mr Trump said a “big part of the problem” was Russian President Vladimir Putin had said for many years he did not want Ukraine involved with NATO.
“Somewhere along the line [outgoing President Joe] Biden said you can join NATO,” he said.
“Well, then Russia has NATO right on their doorstep.
“When I heard the way Biden was negotiating I said ‘you are going to end up in a war’ and it turned out to be a war.”
Asked if he would commit to keep supporting Ukraine during negotiations with Moscow, Mr Trump quipped: “Well, I wouldn’t tell you if that were the case.”
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Mr Trump win’s certified by rival Kamala Harris
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Offshore drilling
Mr Trump repeated one of his favourite phrases from the campaign trail, “drill, baby, drill”.
On Monday, outgoing President Biden moved to ban new offshore oil and gas developments along most US coastlines.
But Mr Trump, who has vowed to boost domestic energy production, said he will undo it.
“We’re going to be drilling a lot of other locations,” he said.
US
California firefighters battling wildfire sweeping exclusive Los Angeles hillside dotted with celebrity homes
Firefighters in California are battling a fast-moving wildfire which is sweeping an exclusive Los Angeles hillside dotted with celebrity homes.
Officials say the wildfire is being fanned by gusts from a “life-threatening” and “destructive” wind storm that is battering southern California.
Pic: AP
Pic: AP
Fire crews are battling a handful of small blazes in the Los Angeles area, including in the foothills of the Pacific Palisades, between Santa Monica and Malibu.
Around 30,000 residents have been ordered to evacuate.
The smoke cloud from the flames is so high, it can be seen from LA’s famous Venice Beach, more than six miles away.
Actor James Woods has shared footage of flames burning through bushes and past palm trees on a hill near his Pacific Palisades home.
Smoke from a wildfire is seen from Venice Beach. Pic: AP
Meanwhile, actor Steve Guttenberg, who also lives in the area, has been helping to move parked cars to make way for fire engines.
“This is not a parking lot,” he told local media.
“I have friends up there and they can’t evacuate… I’m walking up there as far as I can moving cars.”
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Wildfire reaches California houses
Kristin Crowley, fire chief of the Los Angeles Fire Department, said the area was experiencing “extreme fire weather conditions” and that more than 250 firefighters were currently attempting to battle the blaze.
She said the fire was initially reported as a 10-acre fire, but, fanned by 40mph winds, had since spread to more than 1,200 acres “and growing”.
Ms Crowley added that the job of firefighters in tackling the blaze was being made “extremely challenging” due to “strong winds and surrounding topography”.
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A soldier who exploded a Tesla Cybertruck outside the Trump hotel in Las Vegas used generative AI – including ChatGPT – to help plan the attack, police have said.
Matthew Livelsberger, 37, a US Army Green Beret, fatally shot himself just before the truck blew up outside the hotel on New Year’s Day.
Police in Las Vegas say they have now reviewed Livelsberger’s ChatGPT searches prior to the explosion.
According to officers, the searches indicate he was looking for information on explosive targets, the speed at which certain rounds of ammunition would travel, and whether fireworks were legal in Arizona.
Matthew Alan Livelsberger
Kevin McMahill, sheriff of the Las Vegas Metropolitan Police Department, called Livelsberger’s use of generative AI in planning the attack a “game changer”.
“This is the first incident that I’m aware of on US soil where ChatGPT is utilised to help an individual build a particular device,” he said.
“It’s a concerning moment.”
Officials said last week that Livelsberger left notes in which he labelled the explosion as a stunt which he hoped would be a “wake-up call” for a nation he said was “terminally ill and heading towards collapse”.
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The notes touched on political grievances, societal problems and domestic and international issues, including the war in Ukraine.
However, according to officials, Livelsberger harboured no ill will toward president-elect Donald Trump and in one of the notes he left, he said the country needed to “rally around” him and Tesla boss Elon Musk.
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What was inside exploded Cybertruck?
He also left mobile phone notes saying he needed to “cleanse” his mind “of the brothers I’ve lost and relieve myself of the burden of the lives I took”.
The Trump International Hotel in Las Vegas. File pic: Reuters
The FBI said Livelsberger, who had served in the army since 2006 and was deployed twice to Afghanistan, likely suffered from post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and that there were “potential other family issues or personal grievances in his own life” that may have been “contributing factors”.
Authorities said that Livelsberger, from Colorado Springs, Colorado, acted alone and that the incident appeared likely to be a “tragic case of suicide”.
The explosion caused minor injuries to seven people but virtually no damage to the Trump International Hotel.
Anyone feeling emotionally distressed or suicidal can call Samaritans for help on 116 123 or email jo@samaritans.org in the UK. In the US, call the Samaritans branch in your area or 1 (800) 273-TALK.
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