Harris or Trump? Six ways the US election could play out – and why it all comes down to Pennsylvania
An election ‘too close to call’ is a cliché as old as democracy. But this year’s US election really is.
Despite the Democrats’ remarkable turnaround in the polls after Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden as nominee in August, the US Electoral College system – and Donald Trump’s loyal fanbase – has by no means guaranteed her victory.
This is because, although it’s the presidential and vice presidential nominees on the ballot paper, technically, Americans vote for electors who formally back their choice of candidate.
States have different numbers of electors depending on their size – with 538 in total. Winning the presidency requires getting at least 270 (more than half).
Historically, most states almost never change hands. Taking these so-called ‘safe’ states together, Ms Harris is just ahead of Mr Trump with 225 Electoral College votes to his 219.
Beyond that, the two parties focus almost their entire campaigns on just seven ‘swing’ states that determine the final outcome. They are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.
Pennsylvania alone often holds the key to the White House. This is because it has the most Electoral College votes of the swing states and whoever wins it is also likely to win neighbouring battlegrounds Michigan and Wisconsin – as they have similar demographics.
Here we look at the different ways both candidates could get to that magic number of 270 Electoral College votes.
In 2020, Joe Biden took all the swing states apart from North Carolina. This year, the polls there are neck-and-neck.
Although a 2020 re-run scenario would not require Ms Harris to take North Carolina, she would have to win Georgia.
Some polling has suggested the Democrats have lost support among black and Hispanic voters since the last election, which makes holding both Georgia and Arizona more difficult – particularly with Mr Trump’s support bases there.
Ms Harris is also leaning strongly on younger voters.
“This time around there is uncertainty around the groups that Harris is relying on,” Professor Shaun Bowler, a political scientist at the University of California Riverside, says. “Younger voters tend not to vote as regularly as older ones – and we have no real data to go on for people voting in their first election.”
A much easier route to a Kamala Harris presidency would be to focus solely on Pennsylvania and its so-called ‘blue wall’ neighbours.
Pennsylvania already has a popular Democrat governor – Josh Shapiro – and John Fetterman’s mid-term victory in 2022 saw one of its Republican seats in the Senate turn blue.
“It seems more winnable than the other swing states,” says Professor Bowler. “Aside from a very popular Democrat governor, it also has an established South Asian community around Philadelphia.”
But Professor John Lapinski, director of elections at Sky’s partner network NBC News, warns: “No one knows who’s ahead in Pennsylvania, that’s why this race is so close.”
In 2016, the Republicans took Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin – and Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina.
Mr Trump’s popularity with white, non-educated voters could see him take the so-called ‘blue wall’ states in the north again this time.
Polling has also appeared to lure the Democrats into a false sense of security along the blue wall previously. Hillary Clinton was way ahead of Mr Trump in neighbouring Wisconsin in 2016 – but ended up losing there. More generally, polls have tended to overestimate levels of Democrat support in recent years.
Professor Lapinski adds: “Historically there’s been an underestimation of Trump. A lot of work has gone on to try to correct that in the polls.
“But while Harris is investing more money in most of these states than Trump – you can never underestimate his ability to turn out people.”
With the most campaign resources devoted to Pennsylvania on both sides, Mr Trump could be victorious there – meaning he would only have to secure Georgia and North Carolina to get to 270.
The attempted assassination attempt on him in July also happened at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. But despite the Trump campaign’s efforts to use it to his advantage, Mr Biden’s decision to step aside days later appears to have overshadowed it.
“It’s been such an eventful and fast-paced period that it has been pushed down the list of things people are thinking about,” Professor Bowler says.
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Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
Georgia was one of the key states Mr Trump falsely claimed was “stolen” from him in 2020 and where he is still facing charges of election interference. Georgian Republicans are still trying to push through changes that would see officials allowed to refuse to certify the vote count there.
This is a tight path to victory for Mr Trump – as it puts him at exactly 270 Electoral College votes.
It also requires him to win Maine’s second congressional district – where there is no ‘winner takes all’ approach and Electoral College votes are divided between districts – but he won there in 2016 and 2020.
Winning in the South won’t ensure a Trump victory on its own. The former president would also have to win one northern swing state.
This could be Pennsylvania – as most campaign resources are being focused there – or the smallest in terms of Electoral College votes – Wisconsin.
Wisconsin borders Minnesota, however, where the Democrats’ vice president pick Tim Walz is governor. This means his campaign will have easy access to Wisconsin voters, making things “harder for Trump”, Professor Bowler says.
Ultimately, the Trump campaign could lose out on the big fight for Pennsylvania as long as it gets all four southern battlegrounds.
There is an alternative tiebreak scenario if the Democrats dominate in the North and the Republicans in the South.
Like in Maine, Nebraska’s Electoral College votes are awarded by Congressional district. Nebraska’s second Congressional district has emerged as its own swing over recent years.
If Ms Harris wins Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan – but loses Nebraska second – she’ll be tied with Mr Trump on 269 votes.
Mr Biden won the district by a bigger margin than Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in 2020, however.
Nebraska Republicans tried to change voting rules to favour Mr Trump – but one state senator’s refusal to back the plan meant it failed to go through.
A tiebreak would also emerge if Mr Trump failed to hold Maine’s second district.
While neither of these scenarios is very likely, they effectively translate as a Trump victory. This is because the deciding vote would then go to the House – where Republicans have a majority.
Data reporting by Daniel Dunford, senior data journalist
One of the alleged gunmen in the killing of 15 people on Bondi Beach has been charged.
Naveed Akram, 24, faces 59 counts, including 15 of murder and a terror charge.
The other alleged attacker, his 50-year-old father Sajid, died at the scene in Sydney.
The charges came as people gathered for funerals three days after Sunday’s terror attack shocked Australia and intensified concerns about rising antisemitism.
Some 22 victims remain in hospital following the shooting, carried out at an event marking the start of the Jewish celebration of Hanukkah.
People look at flowers laid out for the victims. Pic: Reuters
At the first of the funerals, relatives mourned the death of British-born Rabbi Eli Schlanger, a 41-year-old father of five, who organised the Chanukah by the Sea event.
Often speaking through tears, his father-in-law, Rabbi Yehoram Ulman, expressed his “biggest regret” that he “could have done more” to tell him “how much we love him”.
“I hope he knew that. I’m sure he knew it,” he added. “But I think it should’ve been said more often.”
Relatives of Rabbi Eli Schlanger next to his coffin during his funeral. Pic: Reuters
The father of 10-year-old victim Matilda, whose surname has been withheld at her family’s request, spoke at a vigil on Tuesday night.
Local media reported him as saying: “We came here from Ukraine… and I thought that Matilda is the most Australian name that can ever exist.
“So just remember the name, remember her.”
A photo of Matilda. Pic: Reuters
Read more: Who were the suspected gunmen?
Police have said the two alleged gunmen – who were shot by officers – were motivated by Islamic State ideology.
A recent trip to the Philippines is under investigation. The older Akram used an Indian passport to travel, while his son used an Australian one.
The Akrams stayed at the GV Hotel in Davao from 1 November to 28 November, according to a source, who said police had visited on Wednesday.
The pair are said to have only left their rooms for meals and no one was seen visiting them.
Davao is in an area associated with Islamic extremism but a spokesman for the president of the Philippines said he rejected the claim the country is an “ISIS training hotspot”.
New South Wales to debate gun reforms
The Australian government and intelligence services have come under pressure because the alleged attackers were legally able to acquire the high-powered rifles and shotguns used in the attack.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has vowed to toughen the country’s gun laws after its deadliest mass shooting in three decades, and the state parliament in New South Wales will reconvene next week to discuss reforms.
They include capping the number of guns allowed by a single person and making some shotguns harder to access.
State premier Chris Minns told a news conference: “We’ve got a monumental task in front of us. It’s huge.
“It’s a huge responsibility to pull the community together.
“We need a summer of calm and togetherness, not division.”
Mr Albanese has vowed to work with the Jewish community to “stamp out and eradicate antisemitism”. The prime minister has been accused of not doing enough to prevent its spread since the war in Gaza began two years ago.
Fellow world leaders have expressed their shock and anguish since the attack, including British Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, who hosted a Hanukkah event at Downing Street on Tuesday.
And speaking at the White House last night, US President Donald Trump said: “We join in mourning all of those who were killed, and we’re praying for the swift recovery of the wounded.”
A South African man, with eyes darkened by sleepless nights, tells us his older brother was lured into fighting for Russia on the frontline in Ukraine’s raging Donbas region.
“To them, it’s a suicide mission because they have never been trained for the military. They don’t have military training – they don’t have military experience,” says Bongani, whose name we have changed for his safety.
In the hidden back garden of a modest hotel in KwaZulu-Natal province, he continues: “They don’t have experience of any war. They are just bodyguards who want to get a job and provide for their families. That’s all.”
Bongani says his brother travelled to Russia on a flight via Dubai after being told he would be receiving bodyguard training along with at least 16 other South African men. After signing a contract in Russian, their fate was sealed.
Bongani, not his real name, tells Yousra his brother was on a ‘suicide mission’
“The problems started when they were moved from Russia to Ukraine, and they asked them: ‘Guys – where are we going now because we are here for training?’
“And then the Russians said: ‘Training for what? We don’t know anything about training – what we know is that you’ve signed the contract. You are under our command now – under the Russian army.'”
How is this happening?
Sky News has seen harrowing SOS video messages from South African men who describe entrapment and deployment to the frontline in Ukraine.
In one video, a man in military fatigues details the moment they signed their contracts. He claims Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla, the daughter of former South African President Jacob Zuma, encouraged them to sign away their lives.
“We refused to sign the contract forms because it was written in Russia, which we didn’t understand. We asked them for a translator – someone who can translate the language. They said there was no network,” he says in fluent English.
“That is when Duduzile came with a guy by the name of Khosa. She said we must sign the contract because it is the same thing they did. Duduzile said she is doing the same course we are doing, the same training, and that unfortunately she won’t be with us because she is training somewhere else.”
“Yes, we agreed. We did sign the forms because we trust the lady, Duduzile.”
South African men claim they were trafficked by Duduzile Zuma, daughter of the country’s former president – allegations she denies
Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla is accused of trafficking South African men – including eight of her own relatives – for mercenary recruitment by her half-sister Nkosazana Bonganini Zuma-Mncube, who has filed police charges against her.
She denies the allegations and says she was a victim of deception, misrepresentation, and manipulation.
The South African Police Service (SAPS) say they are currently investigating the charges. Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla has resigned as a member of parliament and has not responded to our request for comment.
Former president Jacob Zuma with his daughter Duduzile Zuma, wearing “I Stand With Russia” T-Shirt in 2023. Pic: @DZumaSambudla/X
Five hours away in Johannesburg’s Gauteng province, we watched as another case of suspected mercenary recruitment played out in a South African magistrate’s court.
Five suspects were ushered out into a crowded courtroom in Kempton Park after being arrested on their way out of Johannesburg’s Oliver R Tambo airport following a tip-off to the police that they were allegedly travelling to Russia via the United Arab Emirates.
Five people suspected of attempting to join Russia’s war effort in Ukraine appear in a Johannesburg court
Among the five suspects is Patricia Mantuala, 39, suspected of recruiting the men
The line-up is sullen as the three young men on one end of the stand look down at their hands. The youngest is only 21 years old.
At the other end of the stand is a 39-year-old woman called Patricia Mantuala, who stands accused of recruiting them. The five suspects were eventually granted bail by the court after a postponed hearing.
Read more from Sky News:
G20 overshadowed by Ukraine
Alleged mercenary arrested in London
Is time running out for Ukraine?
Colonel Katlego Mogale, a spokesperson for the Directorate for Priority Crime Investigation (DPCI), also known as the HAWKS, told Sky News and other journalists in a news conference that they are not ruling out the possibility that more suspects will be arrested.
South Africa’s specialised police unit is investigating a growing recruitment drive
Amid signs of a growing recruitment drive, the families of those who say they are trapped fighting for Russia in Ukraine are advocating for their loved ones to return home – against all odds.
“You are dealing with people who are well known in South Africa and in South Africa nobody’s safe and we may never know what’s going to happen next to us,” says Bongani.
“What’s going to happen to our family?”
World
Imran Khan’s sons ‘fear they may never see him again’ as former Pakistan PM ‘held in death cell’
The sons of former Pakistani prime minister Imran Khan have said they fear they might never see their father again as he is being “psychologically tortured” in a “death cell”.
Speaking to Sky News’ The World with Yalda Hakim, Kasim and Sulaiman Khan said they had not spoken to their father, who has been in prison since August 2023, for months.
Imran Khan’s sons being interviewed by Yalda Hakim
Kasim described the conditions the former Pakistani leader has been kept, saying: “He’s been in a solitary confinement cell for over two years where he’s had filthy water, he is around inmates who are dying of hepatitis, the conditions are disgusting and also he is completely isolated from any human contact.”
He continued: “It’s getting harder to see a route out at this point. We’re trying to have faith. But at the same time, right now, the conditions are getting worse.
“It’s very hard to see a way out… We’re now worried we might never see him again.”
Kasim said his father was being subjected to “psychological torture tactics” as even the prison guards weren’t allowed to communicate with the former Pakistani leader, who led the country between 2018 and 2022.
Imran Khan, pictured in March 2023 before his arrest on corruption charges. File pic: Reuters
Sulaiman said his father’s cell, where he allegedly spends 23 hours a day, has been described as a “death cell”.
He said an army spokesperson announced on Friday that Imran Khan, who has in the past been shot three times, was now officially in full isolation.
He added that Imran Khan was being kept in “completely substandard conditions that don’t meet international law for any sort of prisoner”.
The brothers’ words echo what one of Khan’s sisters reported after being allowed to meet the former cricketer in prison at the start of the month.
Uzma Khanum said at the time that Khan was facing isolation and psychological strain in prison following weeks in which his family said access had been blocked.
The former leader was jailed after being convicted in a string of cases that he says were politically driven following his ousting in a 2022 parliamentary vote.
Before launching his political career, Imran Khan was best known as a star of international cricket and for leading Pakistan to Cricket World Cup victory in 1992.
Kasim said his father would “never take a deal and leave all of his other party members in jail to die and fester in these jails…
“Instead he stays in those conditions, happy to rot and it means that he can move towards his goal of ridding Pakistan of corruption, a goal that he has stated to us a million times.”
Mosharraf Zaidi, a Pakistani government spokesperson, will be speaking to Yalda Hakim tonight on Sky News from 9pm.
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