Harris or Trump? Six ways the US election could play out – and why it all comes down to Pennsylvania
An election ‘too close to call’ is a cliché as old as democracy. But this year’s US election really is.
Despite the Democrats’ remarkable turnaround in the polls after Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden as nominee in August, the US Electoral College system – and Donald Trump’s loyal fanbase – has by no means guaranteed her victory.
This is because, although it’s the presidential and vice presidential nominees on the ballot paper, technically, Americans vote for electors who formally back their choice of candidate.
States have different numbers of electors depending on their size – with 538 in total. Winning the presidency requires getting at least 270 (more than half).
Historically, most states almost never change hands. Taking these so-called ‘safe’ states together, Ms Harris is just ahead of Mr Trump with 225 Electoral College votes to his 219.
Beyond that, the two parties focus almost their entire campaigns on just seven ‘swing’ states that determine the final outcome. They are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.
Pennsylvania alone often holds the key to the White House. This is because it has the most Electoral College votes of the swing states and whoever wins it is also likely to win neighbouring battlegrounds Michigan and Wisconsin – as they have similar demographics.
Here we look at the different ways both candidates could get to that magic number of 270 Electoral College votes.
In 2020, Joe Biden took all the swing states apart from North Carolina. This year, the polls there are neck-and-neck.
Although a 2020 re-run scenario would not require Ms Harris to take North Carolina, she would have to win Georgia.
Some polling has suggested the Democrats have lost support among black and Hispanic voters since the last election, which makes holding both Georgia and Arizona more difficult – particularly with Mr Trump’s support bases there.
Ms Harris is also leaning strongly on younger voters.
“This time around there is uncertainty around the groups that Harris is relying on,” Professor Shaun Bowler, a political scientist at the University of California Riverside, says. “Younger voters tend not to vote as regularly as older ones – and we have no real data to go on for people voting in their first election.”
A much easier route to a Kamala Harris presidency would be to focus solely on Pennsylvania and its so-called ‘blue wall’ neighbours.
Pennsylvania already has a popular Democrat governor – Josh Shapiro – and John Fetterman’s mid-term victory in 2022 saw one of its Republican seats in the Senate turn blue.
“It seems more winnable than the other swing states,” says Professor Bowler. “Aside from a very popular Democrat governor, it also has an established South Asian community around Philadelphia.”
But Professor John Lapinski, director of elections at Sky’s partner network NBC News, warns: “No one knows who’s ahead in Pennsylvania, that’s why this race is so close.”
In 2016, the Republicans took Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin – and Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina.
Mr Trump’s popularity with white, non-educated voters could see him take the so-called ‘blue wall’ states in the north again this time.
Polling has also appeared to lure the Democrats into a false sense of security along the blue wall previously. Hillary Clinton was way ahead of Mr Trump in neighbouring Wisconsin in 2016 – but ended up losing there. More generally, polls have tended to overestimate levels of Democrat support in recent years.
Professor Lapinski adds: “Historically there’s been an underestimation of Trump. A lot of work has gone on to try to correct that in the polls.
“But while Harris is investing more money in most of these states than Trump – you can never underestimate his ability to turn out people.”
With the most campaign resources devoted to Pennsylvania on both sides, Mr Trump could be victorious there – meaning he would only have to secure Georgia and North Carolina to get to 270.
The attempted assassination attempt on him in July also happened at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. But despite the Trump campaign’s efforts to use it to his advantage, Mr Biden’s decision to step aside days later appears to have overshadowed it.
“It’s been such an eventful and fast-paced period that it has been pushed down the list of things people are thinking about,” Professor Bowler says.
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Georgia was one of the key states Mr Trump falsely claimed was “stolen” from him in 2020 and where he is still facing charges of election interference. Georgian Republicans are still trying to push through changes that would see officials allowed to refuse to certify the vote count there.
This is a tight path to victory for Mr Trump – as it puts him at exactly 270 Electoral College votes.
It also requires him to win Maine’s second congressional district – where there is no ‘winner takes all’ approach and Electoral College votes are divided between districts – but he won there in 2016 and 2020.
Winning in the South won’t ensure a Trump victory on its own. The former president would also have to win one northern swing state.
This could be Pennsylvania – as most campaign resources are being focused there – or the smallest in terms of Electoral College votes – Wisconsin.
Wisconsin borders Minnesota, however, where the Democrats’ vice president pick Tim Walz is governor. This means his campaign will have easy access to Wisconsin voters, making things “harder for Trump”, Professor Bowler says.
Ultimately, the Trump campaign could lose out on the big fight for Pennsylvania as long as it gets all four southern battlegrounds.
There is an alternative tiebreak scenario if the Democrats dominate in the North and the Republicans in the South.
Like in Maine, Nebraska’s Electoral College votes are awarded by Congressional district. Nebraska’s second Congressional district has emerged as its own swing over recent years.
If Ms Harris wins Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan – but loses Nebraska second – she’ll be tied with Mr Trump on 269 votes.
Mr Biden won the district by a bigger margin than Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in 2020, however.
Nebraska Republicans tried to change voting rules to favour Mr Trump – but one state senator’s refusal to back the plan meant it failed to go through.
A tiebreak would also emerge if Mr Trump failed to hold Maine’s second district.
While neither of these scenarios is very likely, they effectively translate as a Trump victory. This is because the deciding vote would then go to the House – where Republicans have a majority.
Data reporting by Daniel Dunford, senior data journalist
World
Arrest warrants issued for Israeli PM Netanyahu and former defence secretary Gallant over alleged war crimes
Arrest warrants have been issued for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defence secretary Yoav Gallant by the International Criminal Court (ICC).
The warrants are for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity related to the war in Gaza that Israel launched following the 7 October attacks by Hamas.
The prime minister’s office said the warrants against him and Gallant were “anti-semitic” and said Israel “rejects with disgust the absurd and false actions”.
Another warrant was issued for the arrest of Hamas leader Mohammed Diab Ibrahim al Masri for alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity.
Al Masri, also known as Mohammed Deif, was the mastermind behind the 7 October attacks.
It is unclear if he is still alive, following an airstrike that Israel claimed killed him earlier this year.
Neither Israel nor the US are members of the ICC. Israel has rejected the court’s jurisdiction and denies committing war crimes in Gaza.
Former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett said the warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant were a “mark of shame” for the ICC.
The court originally said it was seeking arrest warrants for the three men in May for the alleged crimes and today announced that it had rejected challenges by Israel and issued warrants of arrest.
The new UK Labour government said in the summer it would not oppose the ICC’s right to issue the warrants.
Benjamin Netanyahu addresses the UN general assembly. Pic: Reuters
Warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant
In its update, the ICC said it found “reasonable grounds to believe” that Netanyahu and Gallant “bear criminal responsibility” for alleged crimes.
These, the court said, include “the war crime of starvation as a method of warfare; and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts”.
Netanyahu previously spoke of his “disgust” at the suggestion the ICC would seek an arrest warrant for him.
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A video released by Hamas in 2005 shows a man identified as Mohammed Deif. Pic: AP
Warrant for Hamas leader
The ICC also said it has issued an arrest warrant for Hamas leader Al Masri, saying it has “reasonable grounds to believe” that he is responsible for crimes against humanity including murder, extermination, torture, rape, as well as war crimes including taking hostages.
Discussing the 7 October attacks, the court said: “In light of the coordinated killings of members of civilians at several separate locations, the Chamber also found that the conduct took place as part of a mass killing of members of the civilian population, and it therefore concluded that there are reasonable grounds to believe that the crime against humanity of extermination was committed.”
In its statement, the ICC said the prosecution was not in a position to determine whether Al Masri is dead or alive, so was issuing the arrest warrant.
The court previously said it was seeking an arrest warrant for Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas who was subsequently killed in July.
Four people have died and a number of others are in hospital after allegedly being served drinks laced with methanol.
According to reports, six British travellers are among those being treated in Laos, after falling ill last week.
Two Danish women in their 20s and a 56-year-old US citizen are reported to have died in what authorities fear was a mass poisoning.
On Thursday, it was confirmed an Australian woman – named as Bianca Jones, 19, from Melbourne – had become the fourth person to die.
Holly Bowles Pic: Facebook
Her friend Holly Bowles is being treated in hospital after calling for medical help at their accommodation, Nana’s Backpackers Hostel.
In a statement given to the Herald Sun, Ms Jones’s family said: “It is with the heaviest of hearts that we share the news that our beloved daughter and sister, Bianca Jones, has passed away.
“She was surrounded by love, and we are comforted by the knowledge that her incredible spirit touched so many lives during her time with us.
“We want to express our deepest gratitude for the overwhelming support, love, and prayers we’ve received from across Australia.”
Simone White Pic: Squire Patton Boggs
One of the British travellers being treated in hospital has been named as Simone White, 28, from Orpington, Kent.
According to The Times newspaper, she became ill last week in Vang Vieng – a resort popular with backpackers.
Ms White’s friend, Bethany Clarke, a healthcare worker also from Orpington, posted on a Laos Backpacking Facebook group to warn other travellers.
“Urgent – please avoid all local spirits. Our group stayed in Vang Vieng and we drank free shots offered by one of the bars,” she wrote.
“Just avoid them as so not worth it. Six of us who drank from the same place are in hospital currently with methanol poisoning.”
New Zealand’s Foreign Ministry also confirmed one of its citizens was also unwell in Laos and could be a victim of methanol poisoning.
Ukraine has fired British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles into Russia, a source has told Sky News.
The UK and Ukraine have not yet confirmed the use of the long-range weapons in Russia but their deployment has been widely reported in British media.
Footage has been posted on Telegram reportedly showing wreckage from one of the missiles in Russia’s Kursk region, which borders Ukraine.
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What are Storm Shadow missiles?
Ukraine war: Follow latest updates
The UK had previously said that British tanks, anti-tank missiles and other military equipment could be used inside Russia as part of Ukraine’s defence – but had kept restrictions on the use of long-range missiles.
It comes just days after US President Joe Biden authorised the same policy shift.
Russia’s defence ministry said on Tuesday that Ukraine had fired six US-supplied Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS) in the Bryansk region.
A Russian state news agency cited the ministry as saying the missiles caused no casualties.
The missile is also called SCALP by French forces. File pic: AP
Missiles will have a ‘marginal effect’
Sky News’ security and defence editor Deborah Haynes says Ukraine’s allies have been pursuing a strategy of ambiguity and “it remains to be seen whether we get official confirmation on this from the UK or from Ukraine”.
“There is also the uncomfortable reality that Ukraine’s stockpile of Storm Shadow missiles is severely limited, so their use will only have a marginal effect.”
Meanwhile, Sky’s military analyst Sean Bell says he would be amazed if this attack really marks the first time such a missile has been used by Ukraine to hit inside Russia.
“I would be quite surprised if they haven’t been used for selected targets further on [into Russia] because they are… very, very effective at striking Russian logistics hubs, headquarters, ammunition dumps,” he said.
British forces used Storm Shadows in the Iraq war in 2003. File pic: Reuters
The same missiles are also used by French forces, using the alternative name SCALP, and are made by the Anglo-French arms manufacturer, MBDA.
Embassies shut over air attack fears
Earlier, the US and some other Western embassies in Kyiv closed amid fears Russia was preparing a major air attack on the Ukrainian capital.
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Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had been asking Kyiv’s allies to give his troops the capability to strike deeper behind Russian lines for over a year.
Mr Biden’s change of policy is linked to changing tactics by the Russians, which began deploying North Korean ground troops to supplement its own forces.
The White House is set to announce more military aid for Ukraine worth up to $275m (£217m), the US defence secretary has said.
Lloyd Austin said the support would “meet critical battlefield needs” and would include munitions for rocket systems, artillery and tank weapons, along with anti-personnel landmines.
Russian politician Maria Butina and Donald Trump Jr, the son of US President-elect Donald Trump, both warned that Mr Biden’s decision over Ukraine’s usage of long-range missiles could spark the start of a third world war.
Vladimir Putin lowered the threshold required for the use of nuclear weapons after the US move, adding to fears the conflict could escalate.
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