Harris or Trump? Six ways the US election could play out – and why it all comes down to Pennsylvania

Published

6 months ago

October 29, 2024

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An election ‘too close to call’ is a cliché as old as democracy. But this year’s US election really is.

Despite the Democrats’ remarkable turnaround in the polls after Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden as nominee in August, the US Electoral College system – and Donald Trump’s loyal fanbase – has by no means guaranteed her victory.

This is because, although it’s the presidential and vice presidential nominees on the ballot paper, technically, Americans vote for electors who formally back their choice of candidate.

States have different numbers of electors depending on their size – with 538 in total. Winning the presidency requires getting at least 270 (more than half).

Historically, most states almost never change hands. Taking these so-called ‘safe’ states together, Ms Harris is just ahead of Mr Trump with 225 Electoral College votes to his 219.

Beyond that, the two parties focus almost their entire campaigns on just seven ‘swing’ states that determine the final outcome. They are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.

Pennsylvania alone often holds the key to the White House. This is because it has the most Electoral College votes of the swing states and whoever wins it is also likely to win neighbouring battlegrounds Michigan and Wisconsin – as they have similar demographics.

Here we look at the different ways both candidates could get to that magic number of 270 Electoral College votes.

In 2020, Joe Biden took all the swing states apart from North Carolina. This year, the polls there are neck-and-neck.

Although a 2020 re-run scenario would not require Ms Harris to take North Carolina, she would have to win Georgia.

Some polling has suggested the Democrats have lost support among black and Hispanic voters since the last election, which makes holding both Georgia and Arizona more difficult – particularly with Mr Trump’s support bases there.

Ms Harris is also leaning strongly on younger voters.

“This time around there is uncertainty around the groups that Harris is relying on,” Professor Shaun Bowler, a political scientist at the University of California Riverside, says. “Younger voters tend not to vote as regularly as older ones – and we have no real data to go on for people voting in their first election.”

A much easier route to a Kamala Harris presidency would be to focus solely on Pennsylvania and its so-called ‘blue wall’ neighbours.

Pennsylvania already has a popular Democrat governor – Josh Shapiro – and John Fetterman’s mid-term victory in 2022 saw one of its Republican seats in the Senate turn blue.

“It seems more winnable than the other swing states,” says Professor Bowler. “Aside from a very popular Democrat governor, it also has an established South Asian community around Philadelphia.”

But Professor John Lapinski, director of elections at Sky’s partner network NBC News, warns: “No one knows who’s ahead in Pennsylvania, that’s why this race is so close.”

In 2016, the Republicans took Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin – and Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina.

Mr Trump’s popularity with white, non-educated voters could see him take the so-called ‘blue wall’ states in the north again this time.

Polling has also appeared to lure the Democrats into a false sense of security along the blue wall previously. Hillary Clinton was way ahead of Mr Trump in neighbouring Wisconsin in 2016 – but ended up losing there. More generally, polls have tended to overestimate levels of Democrat support in recent years.

Professor Lapinski adds: “Historically there’s been an underestimation of Trump. A lot of work has gone on to try to correct that in the polls.

“But while Harris is investing more money in most of these states than Trump – you can never underestimate his ability to turn out people.”

With the most campaign resources devoted to Pennsylvania on both sides, Mr Trump could be victorious there – meaning he would only have to secure Georgia and North Carolina to get to 270.

The attempted assassination attempt on him in July also happened at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. But despite the Trump campaign’s efforts to use it to his advantage, Mr Biden’s decision to step aside days later appears to have overshadowed it.

“It’s been such an eventful and fast-paced period that it has been pushed down the list of things people are thinking about,” Professor Bowler says.

Georgia was one of the key states Mr Trump falsely claimed was “stolen” from him in 2020 and where he is still facing charges of election interference. Georgian Republicans are still trying to push through changes that would see officials allowed to refuse to certify the vote count there.

This is a tight path to victory for Mr Trump – as it puts him at exactly 270 Electoral College votes.

It also requires him to win Maine’s second congressional district – where there is no ‘winner takes all’ approach and Electoral College votes are divided between districts – but he won there in 2016 and 2020.

Winning in the South won’t ensure a Trump victory on its own. The former president would also have to win one northern swing state.

This could be Pennsylvania – as most campaign resources are being focused there – or the smallest in terms of Electoral College votes – Wisconsin.

Wisconsin borders Minnesota, however, where the Democrats’ vice president pick Tim Walz is governor. This means his campaign will have easy access to Wisconsin voters, making things “harder for Trump”, Professor Bowler says.

Ultimately, the Trump campaign could lose out on the big fight for Pennsylvania as long as it gets all four southern battlegrounds.

There is an alternative tiebreak scenario if the Democrats dominate in the North and the Republicans in the South.

Like in Maine, Nebraska’s Electoral College votes are awarded by Congressional district. Nebraska’s second Congressional district has emerged as its own swing over recent years.

If Ms Harris wins Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan – but loses Nebraska second – she’ll be tied with Mr Trump on 269 votes.

Mr Biden won the district by a bigger margin than Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in 2020, however.

Nebraska Republicans tried to change voting rules to favour Mr Trump – but one state senator’s refusal to back the plan meant it failed to go through.

A tiebreak would also emerge if Mr Trump failed to hold Maine’s second district.

While neither of these scenarios is very likely, they effectively translate as a Trump victory. This is because the deciding vote would then go to the House – where Republicans have a majority.

Data reporting by Daniel Dunford, senior data journalist

World

Israeli pilots’ protest letter reveals deepening rift over ongoing war in Gaza

Published

3 hours ago

May 4, 2025

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Israeli pilots' protest letter reveals deepening rift over ongoing war in Gaza

The Israeli Air Force is regarded as one of the country’s most elite units.

So, when hundreds of current and former pilots call for an end to the war in Gaza to get the hostages out, Israelis take notice.

This month, 1,200 pilots caused a storm by signing an open letter arguing the war served mainly “political and personal interests and not security ones”.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the original letter was written by “bad apples”.

But Guy Paron, a former pilot and one of those behind the letter, said the Israeli government had failed to move to phase two of the ceasefire deal with Hamas, brokered under US President Donald Trump.

That deal called for a full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the release of all the remaining hostages. Mr Netanyahu continues to argue that the war must continue to put pressure on Hamas.

Mr Paron said the (Israeli) government “gave up or violated a signed agreement with Hamas” and “threw it to the trash”.

“You have to finish the deal, release the hostages, even if it means stopping that war,” he argued.

It’s not the first time Israeli pilots have taken up a cause. Many of them also campaigned against Mr Netanyahu’s 2023 judicial reforms.

“In this country, 1,000 Israeli Air Force pilots carry a lot of weight,” Mr Paron added.

“The Air Force historically has been the major force and game-changer in all of Israel’s wars, including this current one. The strength of the Air Force is the public’s guarantee of security.”

Anti-government campaign spreads

Now, the open letter campaign has spread to other parts of the military.

More than 15,000 people have signed, including paratroopers, armoured corps, navy, special units, cyber and medics. The list goes on.

Dr Ofer Havakuk has served 200 days during this war as a combat doctor, mostly in Gaza, and believes the government is continuing the war to stay in power.

He has also signed an open letter supporting the pilots and accused the prime minister of putting politics first.

He said Mr Netanyahu “wants to keep his coalition working and to keep the coalition together. For him, this is the main purpose of the war”.

A ceasefire could lead to the collapse of the prime minister’s fragile far-right coalition, which is opposed to ending the war.

Threat of dismissal

The Israeli military has threatened to dismiss those who have signed protest letters.

We met a former pilot who is still an active reservist. He didn’t want to be identified and is worried he could lose his job.

“This is a price that I’m willing to pay, although it is very big for me because I’m volunteering and, as a volunteer, I want to stay on duty for as long as I can,” he told us.

The controversy over the war and the hostages is gaining momentum inside Israel’s military.

It is also exposing deep divisions in society at a time when there is no clear sign about how the government plans to end the war in Gaza, or when.

The renewed war in Gaza over the last year and a half followed deadly Hamas attacks on Israel on 7 October 2023, which killed 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and saw around 250 taken hostage.

More than 51,000 people have been killed in Gaza during the Israeli military’s response, many of them civilians, according to the enclave’s Hamas-run Ministry of Health.

World

Drone attacks are intensifying in Sudan – hitting schools and camps homing the displaced

Published

1 day ago

May 3, 2025

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Drone attacks are intensifying in Sudan - hitting schools and camps homing the displaced

The smell of explosives is still in the air when we arrive.

Hours before, a displacement camp in Atbara housing families who fled the war in Sudan’s capital Khartoum was hit by two drone strikes in a four-pronged attack.

The first bomb on 25 April burned donated tents and killed the children in them.

The second hit a school serving as a shelter for the spillover of homeless families.

Chunks of cement and plaster had been blasted off the walls of the classrooms where they slept when the second explosive was dropped.

Blood marked the entrance of the temporary home closest to the crater.

Inside, shattered glass and broken window frames speak to the force of the explosion. We were told by their neighbours that four people in the family were instantly killed.

“People were torn apart. This is inhumane,” says their neighbour Mahialdeen, whose brother and sister were injured. “We are praying that God lifts this catastrophe. We left Khartoum because of the fighting and found it here.”

Wiping a tear, he says: “It is chasing us.”

The sanctuary city held by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) about 200 miles northeast of Khartoum has been hit by six drone attacks by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since the start of the year.

These latest strikes are the most deadly.

The drones – known for targeting civilian infrastructure – hit the displacement camp twice, the nearby power station supplying the city with electricity and an empty field with four bombs in the dark, early hours of the morning. First responders have told Sky News that 12 people were killed, including at least two children.

RSF increasingly using drones to carry out attacks

Data from the conflict-monitoring organisation ACLED shows the RSF has carried out increasing numbers of drone attacks across the country.

The most targeted states have been Khartoum and North Darfur, where fighting on the ground has been fierce, as well as Atbara’s River Nile State.

The data suggests that the increase in strikes has been driven by a change in tactics following the SAF’s recapture of Khartoum in late March, with the number of strikes carried out by the RSF spiking shortly after their withdrawal from the capital.

Satellite imagery shows the RSF’s airpower has allowed it to continue to attack targets in and around Khartoum.

Nearby Wadi Seidna Airbase was targeted after the attack on Atbara, with damage visible across a large area south of its airfield.

We were given access to the remains of latest suicide drones launched at Khartoum and could not find discernible signs of commercial origin.

Drone experts told Sky News that they are self-built devices made from generic parts with no identifiable manufacturers for the components.

Drones sighted in South Darfur are consistent with Chinese models

High-resolution satellite images confirm the presence of drones at the RSF-held Nyala Airport.

While the total number of drones kept at this location is unknown, imagery from Planet Labs shows six on 24 April.

This is the highest number of drones observed at the airport, suggesting an increase in the RSF’s available airpower.

The location and number of drones visible in satellite imagery at Nyala Airport has varied over time, suggesting they are in active use.

While it is not possible to determine the exact model of drones sighted at Nyala Airport, a report published by researchers at the Yale School of Public Health’s Humanitarian Lab has previously found them to be consistent with the Chinese-produced FH-95.

Analysis carried out by Sky News confirms these findings, with the measurements and visible features matching those of the CH-95 and FH-95. Both designs are produced in China.

The United Arab Emirates is widely accused of supplying Chinese drones to the RSF through South Sudan and Uganda, as well as weapons through Chad. The UAE vehemently denies these claims.

Evidence of new airfields

Satellite imagery viewed by Sky News suggests the RSF has worked to increase its air capabilities outside of South Darfur.

In late 2024, five new airstrips appeared in West Kordofan between the contested cities of North Darfur capital Al Fashir and Khartoum.

While the purpose of these airstrips is unknown, it is clear they carry some level of military significance, having been targeted by air in April.

In high-resolution images, no aircraft can be seen. Damage is visible next to a structure that appears to be an aircraft hangar.

The rapid escalation in drone strikes is being brutally suffered on the ground.

In Atbara’s Police Hospital, we find a ward full of the injured survivors.

One of them, a three-year-old girl called Manasiq, is staring up at the ceiling in wide-eyed shock with her head wrapped in a bandage and her feet covered in dried blood.

Her aunt tells us the explosion flung her small body across the classroom shelter but she miraculously survived.

She has shrapnel in her head and clings onto her aunt as her mother is treated for her own injuries in a ward on the first floor.

In a dark room deeper in the ward, a mother sits on the edge of a hospital bed holding her young injured daughter. Her son, only slightly older, is on a smaller adjustable bed further away.

Fadwa looks forlorn and helpless. Her children were spending the night with relatives in the temporary tents when the first strike hit and killed her eight-year-old son.

His surviving sister and brother have been asking after him, but Fadwa can’t bring herself to break the news.

“What can I say? This is our fate. We fled the war in Khartoum but can’t escape the violence,” Fadwa says, staring off in the distance.

“We are condemned to this fate.”

World

Ship carrying aid for Gaza bombed by drones, as NGO points finger at Israel

Published

2 days ago

May 2, 2025

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Ship carrying aid for Gaza bombed by drones, as NGO points finger at Israel

A ship carrying humanitarian aid for Gaza has been bombed by drones while it was in international waters.

The Freedom Flotilla Coalition, the NGO responsible for the ship, has pointed the finger at Israel.

Video shows fire raging onboard the vessel, which put out an SOS distress call after it was attacked off the coast of Malta.

It comes as the case against Israel at the International Court of Justice continued this week.

Gaza remains under blockade, with Israel having now refused to allow international aid into the devastated enclave for almost two months despite global outcry.

Following the drone attack, the Maltese government confirmed that after several hours all crew were safe and the fire was under control.

The Freedom Flotilla Coalition said: “Israeli ambassadors must be summoned and answer to violations of international law, including the ongoing blockade (of Gaza) and the bombing of our civilian vessel in international waters.”

It asserted that the drone attack “appears to have specifically targeted the ship’s generator” and had left the vessel at risk of sinking.

Describing the attack, it said: “Armed drones attacked the front of an unarmed civilian vessel twice, causing a fire and a substantial breach in the hull.

“The last communication in the early morning of the 2nd of May, indicated the drones are still circling the ship.”

It released video footage shot in the dark that showed lights in the sky in front of the ship and the sound of explosions. The footage also showed the vessel on fire.

The Israeli foreign ministry has not commented on what happened.

Yesterday, UN aid coordinator Tom Fletcher called on Israel to lift the blockade on Gaza, which has been in force for almost two months.

“Yes, the hostages must be released, now. They should never have been taken from their families,” he said.

“But international law is unequivocal: As the occupying power, Israel must allow humanitarian support in.”

Aid should never be a “bargaining chip”, he added.

‘Children going to bed starving’

Juliette Touma, spokesperson for the UN agency for Palestine refugees, UNRWA said: “The siege on Gaza is the silent killer of children, of older people.

“Families – whole families, seven or eight people – are resorting to sharing one can of beans or peas. Imagine not having anything to feed your children. Children in Gaza are going to bed starving.”