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An election ‘too close to call’ is a cliché as old as democracy. But this year’s US election really is.

Despite the Democrats’ remarkable turnaround in the polls after Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden as nominee in August, the US Electoral College system – and Donald Trump’s loyal fanbase – has by no means guaranteed her victory.

This is because, although it’s the presidential and vice presidential nominees on the ballot paper, technically, Americans vote for electors who formally back their choice of candidate.

States have different numbers of electors depending on their size – with 538 in total. Winning the presidency requires getting at least 270 (more than half).

Historically, most states almost never change hands. Taking these so-called ‘safe’ states together, Ms Harris is just ahead of Mr Trump with 225 Electoral College votes to his 219.

Beyond that, the two parties focus almost their entire campaigns on just seven ‘swing’ states that determine the final outcome. They are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.

Pennsylvania alone often holds the key to the White House. This is because it has the most Electoral College votes of the swing states and whoever wins it is also likely to win neighbouring battlegrounds Michigan and Wisconsin – as they have similar demographics.

Here we look at the different ways both candidates could get to that magic number of 270 Electoral College votes.

In 2020, Joe Biden took all the swing states apart from North Carolina. This year, the polls there are neck-and-neck.

Although a 2020 re-run scenario would not require Ms Harris to take North Carolina, she would have to win Georgia.

Some polling has suggested the Democrats have lost support among black and Hispanic voters since the last election, which makes holding both Georgia and Arizona more difficult – particularly with Mr Trump’s support bases there.

Ms Harris is also leaning strongly on younger voters.

“This time around there is uncertainty around the groups that Harris is relying on,” Professor Shaun Bowler, a political scientist at the University of California Riverside, says. “Younger voters tend not to vote as regularly as older ones – and we have no real data to go on for people voting in their first election.”

A much easier route to a Kamala Harris presidency would be to focus solely on Pennsylvania and its so-called ‘blue wall’ neighbours.

Pennsylvania already has a popular Democrat governor – Josh Shapiro – and John Fetterman’s mid-term victory in 2022 saw one of its Republican seats in the Senate turn blue.

“It seems more winnable than the other swing states,” says Professor Bowler. “Aside from a very popular Democrat governor, it also has an established South Asian community around Philadelphia.”

But Professor John Lapinski, director of elections at Sky’s partner network NBC News, warns: “No one knows who’s ahead in Pennsylvania, that’s why this race is so close.”

In 2016, the Republicans took Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin – and Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina.

Mr Trump’s popularity with white, non-educated voters could see him take the so-called ‘blue wall’ states in the north again this time.

Polling has also appeared to lure the Democrats into a false sense of security along the blue wall previously. Hillary Clinton was way ahead of Mr Trump in neighbouring Wisconsin in 2016 – but ended up losing there. More generally, polls have tended to overestimate levels of Democrat support in recent years.

Professor Lapinski adds: “Historically there’s been an underestimation of Trump. A lot of work has gone on to try to correct that in the polls.

“But while Harris is investing more money in most of these states than Trump – you can never underestimate his ability to turn out people.”

With the most campaign resources devoted to Pennsylvania on both sides, Mr Trump could be victorious there – meaning he would only have to secure Georgia and North Carolina to get to 270.

The attempted assassination attempt on him in July also happened at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. But despite the Trump campaign’s efforts to use it to his advantage, Mr Biden’s decision to step aside days later appears to have overshadowed it.

“It’s been such an eventful and fast-paced period that it has been pushed down the list of things people are thinking about,” Professor Bowler says.

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Georgia was one of the key states Mr Trump falsely claimed was “stolen” from him in 2020 and where he is still facing charges of election interference. Georgian Republicans are still trying to push through changes that would see officials allowed to refuse to certify the vote count there.

This is a tight path to victory for Mr Trump – as it puts him at exactly 270 Electoral College votes.

It also requires him to win Maine’s second congressional district – where there is no ‘winner takes all’ approach and Electoral College votes are divided between districts – but he won there in 2016 and 2020.

Winning in the South won’t ensure a Trump victory on its own. The former president would also have to win one northern swing state.

This could be Pennsylvania – as most campaign resources are being focused there – or the smallest in terms of Electoral College votes – Wisconsin.

Wisconsin borders Minnesota, however, where the Democrats’ vice president pick Tim Walz is governor. This means his campaign will have easy access to Wisconsin voters, making things “harder for Trump”, Professor Bowler says.

Ultimately, the Trump campaign could lose out on the big fight for Pennsylvania as long as it gets all four southern battlegrounds.

There is an alternative tiebreak scenario if the Democrats dominate in the North and the Republicans in the South.

Like in Maine, Nebraska’s Electoral College votes are awarded by Congressional district. Nebraska’s second Congressional district has emerged as its own swing over recent years.

If Ms Harris wins Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan – but loses Nebraska second – she’ll be tied with Mr Trump on 269 votes.

Mr Biden won the district by a bigger margin than Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in 2020, however.

Nebraska Republicans tried to change voting rules to favour Mr Trump – but one state senator’s refusal to back the plan meant it failed to go through.

A tiebreak would also emerge if Mr Trump failed to hold Maine’s second district.

While neither of these scenarios is very likely, they effectively translate as a Trump victory. This is because the deciding vote would then go to the House – where Republicans have a majority.

Data reporting by Daniel Dunford, senior data journalist

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Trump tells Gazans ‘you are dead’ if Israeli hostages are not immediately handed over

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Trump tells Gazans 'you are dead' if Israeli hostages are not immediately handed over

US President Donald Trump has told Gazans to hand over Israeli hostages or “you are dead”.

The threat, made over social media, came hours after the White House confirmed that US officials had broken with tradition to hold direct talks with Hamas.

The US has previously avoided direct contact with the group owing to Washington’s longstanding position not to negotiate with terrorists – with Hamas having been designated as a terrorist group in the US since 1997.

In a press conference on Wednesday, White House press secretary Ms Keavitt said there had been “ongoing talks and discussions” between the US officials and Hamas.

President Donald Trump addresses a joint session of Congress. Pic: AP
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File pic: AP

But she would not be drawn on the substance of the talks – taking place in Doha, Qatar – between US officials and Hamas, but said Israel had been consulted.

Ms Leavitt continued: “Dialogue and talking to people around the world to do what’s in the best interest of the American people, is something that the president has proven is what he believes is a good faith, effort to do what’s right for the American people.”

There are “American lives at stake,” she added.

Adam Boehler, Mr Trump’s pick to be special envoy for hostage affairs, participated in the direct talks with Hamas.

A spokesperson for Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said Israel had “expressed to the United States its position regarding direct talks with Hamas”.

Hours later, Mr Trump warned Hamas to hand over Israeli hostages or “it’s over for you” – adding: “This is your last warning”.

Hamas militants on the day of a hostage handover in Gaza. Pic: Reuters
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Hamas militants on the day of a hostage handover in Gaza in February. Pic: Reuters

On his Truth Social platform, Mr Trump wrote: “Release all of the hostages now, not later, and immediately return all of the dead bodies of the people you murdered or it is over for you.

“Only sick and twisted people keep bodies and you are sick and twisted. I am sending Israel everything it needs to finish the job, not a single Hamas member will be safe if you don’t do as I say.”

Mr Trump met with freed Israeli hostages on Wednesday, something he referenced in his social media post, before adding: “This is your last warning. For the leadership of Hamas, now is the time to leave Gaza, while you still have a chance.

“Also, to the people of Gaza, a beautiful future awaits, but not if you hold hostages. If you do, you are dead. Make a smart decision. Release the hostages now, or there will be hell to pay later.”

Israel estimates about 24 living hostages, including American citizen Edan Alexander, and the bodies of at least 35 others, are still believed to be in Gaza.

Donald Trump welcomes Benjamin Netanyahu to the White House. Pic: Reuters
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Donald Trump with Benjamin Netanyahu in February. Pic: Reuters

The US has a long-held policy of not negotiating with terrorists – which it is breaking with these talks as Hamas has been designated a foreign terrorist organisation by the US government’s National Counterterrorism Center since 1997.

The discussions come as a fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire continues to hold, but its future is uncertain.

Palestinians walk among the rubble of buildings, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, in Khan Younis, in the southern Gaza Strip, February 27, 2025. REUTERS/Ramadan Abed
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Palestinians amid the rubble in the southern Gaza strip. Pic: Reuters

Mr Trump has signalled he has no intention of pushing the Israeli prime minister away from a return to combat if Hamas does not agree to terms of a new ceasefire proposal – which, Israel says, has been drafted by US Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.

The new plan would require Hamas to release half its remaining hostages – the group’s main bargaining chip – in exchange for a ceasefire extension and a promise to negotiate a lasting truce.

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Israel has made no mention of releasing more Palestinian prisoners, a key component of the first phase.

Fighting in Gaza has been halted since 19 January.

Hamas has exchanged 33 Israeli and five Thai hostages for some 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.

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Trump admits tariffs ‘disturbance’ as China says it is ‘ready for any type of war’ with US

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Trump admits tariffs 'disturbance' as China says it is 'ready for any type of war' with US

Donald Trump has admitted his tariffs on major trading partners will cause “a little disturbance” – as China said it was “ready” for “any type of war” with the US.

The US president made his comments in an address to Congress, hours after the levies on imports came into effect.

Producers in Mexico and Canada have been hit with a 25% tax on items they export to the US, while a 20% tariff has been applied to Chinese imports.

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Donald Trump and Xi Jinping.
Pic:Reuters/AP
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Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The US president has admitted his tariffs will cause ‘a little disturbance’ – as China responds. Pic: Reuters/AP

Stock markets, which Mr Trump is said to pay close attention to, slid on the tariffs news.

Exporters in the affected countries as well as businesses in the US and economists have raised concerns about the potential price-raising impact of the tariffs.

Making imports more expensive will likely make goods more expensive and could push prices up across the board.

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Trump’s Congress speech unwrapped

Concern over threat to interest rates

A cycle of high inflation could lead to interest rates being higher for longer in the US, the world’s largest economy, which could dampen economic activity.

A slowed US economy would have global consequences but even without a hit to the States, there are fears of a global trade war – in which countries add their own trade barriers in the form of tariffs.

The Chinese embassy in the US posted on X: “If war is what the US wants, be it a tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end.”

China imposes retaliatory tariffs

The president, however, said he was “just getting started” after 43 days into his second term.

China and Canada have retaliated with their own tariffs against the US.

From next week China will add its own 15% levy on a range of agricultural products such as chicken, wheat, corn and cotton.

An extra 10% will be added to soya beans, pork, beef, fruit, vegetables and dairy products imports.

The country has also raised additional complaints against the US with the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

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Speaking to Sky News presenter Yalda Hakim the US former deputy national security advisor Matt Pottinger said Chinese president Xi Jinping was turning the Chinese economy “into a wartime economy”

“He’s preparing his economy for war so that it can withstand the shocks of war,” he said on The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim podcast

“That means he’s willing to undergo massive inefficiencies in the economy. He’s willing to stockpile food that otherwise would flow easily and more cheaply in from foreign vessels.”

“He’s stockpiling copper and all kinds of inputs into the economy. He is making sure that the private sector is wholly aligned with his broad goals, which are about increasing the Chinese Communist Party’s control over the economy and creating a bigger, better defence industrial base,” Mr Pottinger said.

“He’s preparing for war.”

👉Listen to The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim on your podcast app👈

Compromise ‘as early as Wednesday’?

Canada’s prime minister Justin Trudeau said his country was launching its own WTO challenge and described the US tariffs as a “dumb thing to do”.

He also warned the move by the Trump administration would impact American workplaces and add to inflation in the US.

Addressing the American public, he said: “We don’t want this… but your government has chosen to do this to you.”

Canada has announced the imposition of 25% tariffs on US imports worth C$30bn (£16.3bn).

But US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick struck a different note on tariffs and on Monday said the president will “probably” announce a compromise with Canada and Mexico as early as Wednesday.

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China’s patience with Donald Trump is running out – as trade war rhetoric ramps up

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China's patience with Donald Trump is running out - as trade war rhetoric ramps up

China’s premier has warned “changes unseen in a century are unfolding across the world” as a trade war with the US intensifies.

Li Qiang was speaking in parliament – a day after Washington slapped another 10% tariff on Chinese goods.

Beijing has responded with 10% to 15% tariffs on US food and agricultural products.

“Global economic growth lacks steam, unilateralism and protectionism are on the rise… the multilateral trading system is experiencing disruptions and tariff barriers continue to increase,” Premier Li added.

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‘Whatever they tariff us, we will tariff them’

The Chinese Embassy in the US has also dialled up the pressure, writing on X: “If war is what the US wants, be it tariff war, a trade war or any other type of war, we’re ready to fight till the end.”

This statement was first made by China’s ministry of foreign affairs on Tuesday. The fact that China has repeated it two days in a row is significant.

It is a pointed message to the US that China’s patience is running out – and its rhetoric about the tit-for-tat tariffs is growing harsher. It has called the tariff war “pressure”, “blackmail”, a “smear campaign” and “shifting the blame”.

But Mr Trump loves imposing tariffs on China and appears convinced the pressure will work. He blames China for exporting the chemical precursors used to make fentanyl, which has fuelled the US opioid epidemic.

Meanwhile, China is facing severe economic challenges at home, with the country setting a growth target of “about 5%” for this year.

The government’s work report said a major task this year is to boost consumption and domestic demand.

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Why are tariffs such a big deal?

The problem in China is people aren’t spending enough money, instead they are cautiously saving. One reason for this is the weakness of China’s social welfare system. People save their money in case they lose their job, or to pay for health and elderly care.

The government says it wants to make domestic demand the engine of growth by turning several cities into “international consumption centres” – and expanding its trade-in system to encourage people to buy new products for the home.

Shopping aside, thousands of delegates from provinces across China attended including high-profile figures like former basketball star Yao Ming, and Lei Jun, who co-founded the electric vehicle manufacturing company Xiaomi.

After the session, delegates streamed into the square outside the Great Hall of the People. It is a chance to get their thoughts on the country’s future.

Congress delegate Liu Hui said: “I think tariffs will have little impact on China because we treat others the way they treat us.”

Another delegate from Shaanxi province, Song Yaping, is proud of China’s hi-tech prowess and said: “Our technology develops so fast, just look at DeepSeek, look at how fast our AI develops.”

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Analysis: The US may now be in a recession

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Peace in Europe, war with China?

Despite the confidence, the trade war is deepening.

In the factory heartland of Guangzhou in southern China, a glassware exporter is bracing for the impact of the latest Trump tariffs.

Marketing manager Anna said: “I think the people will discuss these tariffs and of course 10% is a huge number. Some companies can’t make a profit from this.

“But we can’t change it. We just have to get used to it and let it be.”

Still, letting it be is not easy in a world where it feels like everything is changing fast.

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