Harris or Trump? Six ways the US election could play out – and why it all comes down to Pennsylvania
An election ‘too close to call’ is a cliché as old as democracy. But this year’s US election really is.
Despite the Democrats’ remarkable turnaround in the polls after Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden as nominee in August, the US Electoral College system – and Donald Trump’s loyal fanbase – has by no means guaranteed her victory.
This is because, although it’s the presidential and vice presidential nominees on the ballot paper, technically, Americans vote for electors who formally back their choice of candidate.
States have different numbers of electors depending on their size – with 538 in total. Winning the presidency requires getting at least 270 (more than half).
Historically, most states almost never change hands. Taking these so-called ‘safe’ states together, Ms Harris is just ahead of Mr Trump with 225 Electoral College votes to his 219.
Beyond that, the two parties focus almost their entire campaigns on just seven ‘swing’ states that determine the final outcome. They are Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada.
Pennsylvania alone often holds the key to the White House. This is because it has the most Electoral College votes of the swing states and whoever wins it is also likely to win neighbouring battlegrounds Michigan and Wisconsin – as they have similar demographics.
Here we look at the different ways both candidates could get to that magic number of 270 Electoral College votes.
In 2020, Joe Biden took all the swing states apart from North Carolina. This year, the polls there are neck-and-neck.
Although a 2020 re-run scenario would not require Ms Harris to take North Carolina, she would have to win Georgia.
Some polling has suggested the Democrats have lost support among black and Hispanic voters since the last election, which makes holding both Georgia and Arizona more difficult – particularly with Mr Trump’s support bases there.
Ms Harris is also leaning strongly on younger voters.
“This time around there is uncertainty around the groups that Harris is relying on,” Professor Shaun Bowler, a political scientist at the University of California Riverside, says. “Younger voters tend not to vote as regularly as older ones – and we have no real data to go on for people voting in their first election.”
A much easier route to a Kamala Harris presidency would be to focus solely on Pennsylvania and its so-called ‘blue wall’ neighbours.
Pennsylvania already has a popular Democrat governor – Josh Shapiro – and John Fetterman’s mid-term victory in 2022 saw one of its Republican seats in the Senate turn blue.
“It seems more winnable than the other swing states,” says Professor Bowler. “Aside from a very popular Democrat governor, it also has an established South Asian community around Philadelphia.”
But Professor John Lapinski, director of elections at Sky’s partner network NBC News, warns: “No one knows who’s ahead in Pennsylvania, that’s why this race is so close.”
In 2016, the Republicans took Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin – and Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina.
Mr Trump’s popularity with white, non-educated voters could see him take the so-called ‘blue wall’ states in the north again this time.
Polling has also appeared to lure the Democrats into a false sense of security along the blue wall previously. Hillary Clinton was way ahead of Mr Trump in neighbouring Wisconsin in 2016 – but ended up losing there. More generally, polls have tended to overestimate levels of Democrat support in recent years.
Professor Lapinski adds: “Historically there’s been an underestimation of Trump. A lot of work has gone on to try to correct that in the polls.
“But while Harris is investing more money in most of these states than Trump – you can never underestimate his ability to turn out people.”
With the most campaign resources devoted to Pennsylvania on both sides, Mr Trump could be victorious there – meaning he would only have to secure Georgia and North Carolina to get to 270.
The attempted assassination attempt on him in July also happened at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania. But despite the Trump campaign’s efforts to use it to his advantage, Mr Biden’s decision to step aside days later appears to have overshadowed it.
“It’s been such an eventful and fast-paced period that it has been pushed down the list of things people are thinking about,” Professor Bowler says.
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Georgia was one of the key states Mr Trump falsely claimed was “stolen” from him in 2020 and where he is still facing charges of election interference. Georgian Republicans are still trying to push through changes that would see officials allowed to refuse to certify the vote count there.
This is a tight path to victory for Mr Trump – as it puts him at exactly 270 Electoral College votes.
It also requires him to win Maine’s second congressional district – where there is no ‘winner takes all’ approach and Electoral College votes are divided between districts – but he won there in 2016 and 2020.
Winning in the South won’t ensure a Trump victory on its own. The former president would also have to win one northern swing state.
This could be Pennsylvania – as most campaign resources are being focused there – or the smallest in terms of Electoral College votes – Wisconsin.
Wisconsin borders Minnesota, however, where the Democrats’ vice president pick Tim Walz is governor. This means his campaign will have easy access to Wisconsin voters, making things “harder for Trump”, Professor Bowler says.
Ultimately, the Trump campaign could lose out on the big fight for Pennsylvania as long as it gets all four southern battlegrounds.
There is an alternative tiebreak scenario if the Democrats dominate in the North and the Republicans in the South.
Like in Maine, Nebraska’s Electoral College votes are awarded by Congressional district. Nebraska’s second Congressional district has emerged as its own swing over recent years.
If Ms Harris wins Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan – but loses Nebraska second – she’ll be tied with Mr Trump on 269 votes.
Mr Biden won the district by a bigger margin than Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in 2020, however.
Nebraska Republicans tried to change voting rules to favour Mr Trump – but one state senator’s refusal to back the plan meant it failed to go through.
A tiebreak would also emerge if Mr Trump failed to hold Maine’s second district.
While neither of these scenarios is very likely, they effectively translate as a Trump victory. This is because the deciding vote would then go to the House – where Republicans have a majority.
Data reporting by Daniel Dunford, senior data journalist
Whoever picked up the keys to the White House, this was always going to be a historic election win.
A Kamala Harris victory would have made her the first female president. Donald Trump is the first convicted felon to become POTUS.
In May, Trump became the first former US president to be criminally convicted, for attempting to cover up a hush money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels during his 2016 campaign.
Mr Trump is now due to be inaugurated as president for the second time. Pic: Reuters
He was found guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records to commit election fraud. As it stands, he is due to be sentenced in this case later in November.
Mr Trump, who is due to be inaugurated as president in January, has also been embroiled in other state and federal criminal cases, as well as civil cases. He has pleaded not guilty to charges against him and alleged prosecutions are politically motivated.
Experts say it is likely the federal cases at least will “go away”.
‘Hush money’ – state case
Stormy Daniels. Pic: AP 2018
This is the case relating to Stormy Daniels, for which Trump was found guilty of covering up his then lawyer’s $130,000 (£99,000) payment for her silence before the 2016 election, about a sexual encounter she alleges they had a decade earlier.
Trump is due to be sentenced in New York on 26 November – and could face up to four years in prison. His lawyers are now expected to ask Justice Juan Merchan to delay the hearing.
Initially set for July, Judge Merchan has already twice postponed the sentencing. This is in part due to a US Supreme Court ruling made in July, finding that presidents have broad immunity from prosecution over their official acts.
Mr Trump argues the case should be dismissed based on this, which prosecutors dispute.
Election subversion – federal case
Trump claimed that he won the 2020 election, not Joe Biden. Pic: Reuters
Donald Trump is also charged with attempting to overturn his defeat in the 2020 election, which he lost to Joe Biden.
He has pleaded not guilty to criminal charges accusing him of a conspiracy to obstruct the process to collect and certify the results.
He was accused of using “dishonesty, fraud, and deceit” and spreading “pervasive and destabilising lies about election fraud”.
Again, this case has been slowed by the US Supreme Court ruling on presidents and immunity.
Election interference – state case
Mugshot from the Fulton County Sherriff’s Office in Georgia. Pic: AP/Fulton County Sherriff
Mr Trump was formally booked at Georgia’s Fulton County jail in August 2023, charged over an alleged conspiracy to reverse his defeat specifically in the battleground state in the 2020 election.
While he was there, he had his mugshot and fingerprints taken before being released on bail. Speaking to media afterwards, he said: “What has taken place here is a travesty of justice. We did nothing wrong. I did nothing wrong and everybody knows that. I’ve never had such support.”
The election result in Georgia was memorably close, triggering two recounts, but ultimately Mr Biden won by 11,779 votes – or 0.23% of the five million cast.
It was certified by both Georgia’s Republican governor Brian Kemp and secretary of state Brad Raffensperger. But Mr Trump did not accept the result.
Rudy Giuliani, former mayor of New York City and Trump lawyer, was also charged in the case in Georgia
Prosecutors used state racketeering laws, developed to fight organised crime, to charge him and others, including his former lawyer Rudy Giuliani.
Mr Trump and eight of his 14 co-defendants in the case are appealing. They are seeking to disqualify the lead prosecutor, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, over alleged misconduct.
Misuse of classified documents – federal case
Documents were found at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago home. Pic: REUTERS/Marco Bello 2022
Mr Trump had also faced charges over classified documents he allegedly took from the White House, including deleting CCTV footage of his staff moving boxes at his Florida home.
However, a judge threw out this case against him on 15 July.
Details on the US nuclear weapons programmes, potential vulnerabilities of the nation and its allies, and plans for retaliatory military attacks were in some of the documents, the federal indictment said.
Prosecutors are appealing.
Civil cases
Trump spoke at a rally contesting the result of the 2020 election. Pic: Reuters
He is also appealing several civil lawsuits totalling more than $500m (about £388m), which likely won’t be affected by his win.
These include a civil fraud case in New York state, and cases brought by writer E Jean Carroll, who sued him for allegedly sexually assaulting her in the 1990s, and defaming her while he was president the first time.
The appeals court is expected to rule in the sexual assault case first, with the ruling expected at any time, according to NBC.
Mr Trump is also facing eight pending civil suits related to the attack on the US Capitol on 6 January 2021, following his complaints of voter fraud in the 2020 election.
No trial date has been set, but with appeals these could take months or even longer to be determined, NBC reports.
So what happens now?
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March 2024: Donald Trump on presidential immunity
Experts say his election victory will essentially end the criminal cases brought against him, at least for the time he occupies the White House.
He has previously said that should he become president again, he would fire US Special Counsel Jack Smith – who led the federal prosecutions – “within two seconds” of being sworn in.
While he will indeed have the authority to fire Mr Smith and shut down the federal cases, he will not have the same control over state cases in New York and Georgia.
However, being the US president is a unique position, and means it is unlikely he will face legal consequences in either case during his term in office.
Does that mean he gets off?
Sky News US correspondent James Matthews says this is a possibility, although he adds that the two state cases “are more complicated”.
As president, Mr Trump would have the power “to appoint officials of his choice at the Department of Justice,” Matthews added, and it is “probably fair to say their brief would include dropping the two federal cases”.
Can Trump pardon himself?
Pic: Steven Hirsch/pool via Reuters – May 2024
This is also a possibility, Matthews said. It falls within the power of the president, although a self-pardon has never been tested legally.
The issue of a pardon doesn’t apply in state cases – however, the conviction and prosecution are weakened by the Supreme Court ruling.
“Nor can evidence of official acts be used in evidence to support the prosecution of a crime committed out of office,” Matthews said.
“In both the New York appeal and Georgia case, expect Trump’s lawyers to point to evidence used to convict him – phone calls and behaviour whilst in the role of president – and claim it relates to official acts and, under the Supreme Court ruling, should be ruled inadmissible.”
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Danny Cevallos, legal analyst for Sky News’ US partner NBC, said he could say with “a lot of confidence” that the federal cases “are going to go away”.
Mr Trump could appoint an attorney general “who will simply do his bidding and dismiss the case,” he said, or he could instruct the justice department “to not even bother with the appeal of the already dismissed federal case. Those cases are, for all intents and purposes, gone”.
Next up, the hush money case. Even if sentencing does happen on 26 November, “in all likelihood, it’s not a case that he’s going to get prison time”, Mr Cevallos said, due to a number of factors.
He added: “You have someone over 75 years old, no guns, no drugs, no violence… in the spectrum of criminals who might be able to get a probation-only or house arrest sentence, Donald Trump is in a high likelihood. That’s even if the case goes forward this month for sentencing, it might not.”
Finally, the case in Georgia is “mired in appeal”, Mr Cevallos said.
“In all likelihood, those cases will be put on pause. And four years from now, who knows what the political situation will be in Fulton County, Georgia.”
Fulton County is “not good at speedy trials in complex cases,” he added, so “Donald Trump’s case may never see the light of day in Georgia”.
Ireland’s prime minister has announced the planned date for a general election to be held this month.
Taoiseach Simon Harris said he hopes the election will take place on 29 November, formally kicking off a truncated campaign which will last mere weeks.
Mr Harris, 38, was appointed Irish prime minister – the youngest in the country’s history – after Leo Varadkar’s shock resignation in March.
He will travel to Aras an Uachtarain on Friday, the official residence of the Irish president, to seek the dissolution of Ireland’s Dail parliament.
Speaking to RTE News on Wednesday, Mr Harris said: “As I would have discussed with the other coalition leaders, it’s my hope that we will have polling day on this country on November 29.”
He added: “I’m looking forward to the weeks ahead and asking the people of Ireland for a mandate.”
After refusing to be drawn on the election date for weeks, Mr Harris made the announcement less than an hour after his coalition partner-turned-campaign rival Micheal Martin revealed that the election would be called on Friday.
Mr Harris could have waited until March when the coalition’s five-year term comes to an end to go to the polls, but he has been paving the way for an election in recent weeks, announcing 10.5bn euros (£8.75bn) in tax cuts and spending increases last month.
Keep up with all the latest news from the UK and around the world by following Sky News
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The election will bring to an end the historic coalition that brought together Fine Gael and Fianna Fail, who had been rivals dating back to the civil war.
It saw Mr Martin, the Fianna Fail leader, taking the taoiseach role for the first half of the lifetime of the government, later replaced by then-Fine Gael leader Mr Varadkar.
The last election was seen as a monumentally successful performance for Sinn Fein, which had the highest percentage of first-preference votes, but the party has struggled in more recent local and European elections.
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