Lowri Williams is struggling to cover her basic expenses. Earning a low income with very little support, she says she feels like she’s “living hand-to-mouth” and barely getting by.
She’s one of a large group of people in low-income households who are caught in a precarious position, earning too little to comfortably support themselves, but too much to qualify for significant financial help.
For people like Lowri, working more or earning a higher income could mean losing vital support like Universal Credit, leaving them no better off and in some cases even worse off.
Higher tax bills for the lowest paid
Lowri’s salary is not high enough to pay tax. But there’s a wider group of low-income earners who are facing a heavy tax burden.
Sky News analysis has found that in the last three years, working people in the bottom 25% of earners have effectively had a 60% tax hike.
This is due to the freeze on personal allowances, introduced in 2021 and scheduled to end in 2028. For each year the freeze is enacted, earners effectively see their tax rates rise in real terms as a higher proportion of their income becomes taxable.
Labour may extend the freeze in their budget this week. If the chancellor proceeds with the plan, around 400,000 people who are currently exempt will find themselves paying income tax, and many current taxpayers will pay higher rates.
On top of this, low to middle-income households are seeing significant stagnation in how much their income is going up, according to analysis of Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) data by the Resolution Foundation.
This finding is part of an upcoming report in November, obtained by Sky News, which will delve deeper into the financial pressures these households face.
Between the mid-1990s and early 2000s, low to middle-income households experienced an almost 50% rise in income. But in the last decade, that growth has slowed dramatically to just 11%.
Fluctuating earnings and a squeeze on benefits
The government is also reportedly considering restricting sickness benefits, a move which may exacerbate the issue.
“Economic vulnerability and insecurity are particularly high among people with ill health or disabilities,” said Alfie Stirling, director of insight and policy at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation.
“Any policy that reduces their support, or limits access to it, will likely worsen hardship and increase the number of people at risk,” he added.
Low income families in these situations can receive state support like Universal Credit to supplement their income.
Universal Credit, first introduced in 2013, combines several state-funded benefits, including housing support, child tax credits, and income support, into one payment. It provides support to households both in and out of work.
Around 2.5 million people in work receive this support, but some, like Lowri, a part-time charity worker, miss out at times due to fluctuating monthly earnings.
Universal Credit is reduced by 55p for every £1 earned, a calculation known as the taper rate. Some people receive an allowance before this reduction, depending on their circumstances.
Lowri, who is impacted by the taper rate, explained: “If you earn over the limit, you lose out immediately. Not only do you lose Universal Credit, but also your council tax benefit, which is another £150 a month.
“So, while you might earn £50 more, you could end up £100 worse off.”
“Every penny you have coming in is paying just bills,” she said.
Finding ways to save
Below is Lowri’s household expenditure for some essential bills.
While she’s able to receive UC, she’s eligible for social tariffs, which are a discounted package for household bills, which could help her save.
This could amount to a saving of nearly £70 for Lowri’s mobile and broadband budget, according to analysis by Nous, an AI-powered bill-tracking tool.
With social tariffs in place, her water bill could be cut in half.
The National Living Wage
While Lowri’s income means she doesn’t pay tax, people on the National Living Wage (NLW), £11.44 per hour (£22,308 annually), who earn more than her, are heavily affected by tax and benefits decisions made by the Conservative government, which Labour are reportedly proposing to extend.
At the budget in March, the NLW increased by 10%.
The chancellor may announce a further hike in the NLW at this week’s budget, which sounds like good news.
But Lalitha Try, economist at the Resolution Foundation says: “Our research shows that the introduction and ramping up of the minimum wage has delivered a major living standards boost to lower income families over the past 25 years.
“But it’s important to recognise that there are limits to what it can achieve. For workers on Universal Credit, over half of the wage gains will be clawed back through lower benefit entitlement.
And the minimum wage can’t help those who may earn more than the legal minimum but struggle with low hours or high housing costs. Other policies are needed to solve those challenges.”
Losing access to support like Universal Credit could also mean people no longer qualify for things like social tariffs and free school meals.
On top of that, the freezing of the personal allowance thresholds which heavily affects the lowest 25% of earners in the UK has also had a significant impact on people earning the NLW.
The amount of tax that someone working full time on the living wage will pay annually in 2024/2025 is over £1,000 more in real terms than it was in 2019/2020.
That’s a lot of money for someone earning just over £22,000 per year.
It means their effective tax rate has almost doubled, from 4.4% to 8.7%, in five years.
These are only a few examples of how an increase in NLW means they have less money in their pockets.
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2:26
How much does this family spend per month?
Two salaries and still struggling
It’s a similar story for people on what is meant to be a more comfortable income.
Chris and Tracey Matthewman, who live with their three daughters in Basildon, Essex, are among the tens of millions of people living below the Minimum Income Standard (MIS).
This is the amount the Joseph Rowntree Foundation defines as necessary for an acceptable standard of living.
It goes beyond just food, clothing, and shelter; it includes the ability to participate in society, such as being able to socialise and having access to technology.
In 2024, the MIS was £28,000 for a single person and £69,400 for a couple with two children.
Tracey teaches in a primary school and Chris looks after the fleet of vehicles his company uses.
The Matthewman household income is below the Minimum Income Standard (MIS) for a family of their size, a little over £80,000 in total.
After tax, their combined household income is around £4,000 a month. A lot of that gets spent on energy bills and council tax, not to mention other essentials.
Chris is clearly worried about how to keep the family afloat. When I visited his home he repeatedly showed me his detailed spreadsheet which he uses to meticulously track his family’s expenses.
Chris says: “It’s frustrating. We have to accept living paycheque to paycheque, just surviving month to month.”
And Tracey had this message for Rachel Reeves, the chancellor, ahead of Labour’s budget: “They need to remember that there are people living in this country who don’t receive any benefits and are still struggling.”
“We’re in that demographic that ends up paying more – more national insurance, more tax. We keep tightening up, but we’re not eligible for any benefits. That’s tough.”
Additional reporting: Daniel Dunford, Senior Data Journalist
The Data and Forensics team is a multi-skilled unit dedicated to providing transparent journalism from Sky News. We gather, analyse and visualise data to tell data-driven stories. We combine traditional reporting skills with advanced analysis of satellite images, social media and other open source information. Through multimedia storytelling, we aim to better explain the world while also showing how our journalism is done.
Outside it is the bleak midwinter. We are smack bang in the middle of some of the country’s best agricultural land.
But inside the cavernous warehouse where we’ve come, you wouldn’t have a clue about any of that: there is no daylight; it feels like it could be any time of the day, any season of the year.
We are at Fischer Farms – Europe’s biggest vertical farm.
The whole point of a vertical farm is to create an environment where you can grow plants, stacked on top of each other (hence: vertical) in high density. The idea being that you can grow your salads or peas somewhere close to the cities where they’re consumed rather than hundreds of miles away. Location is not supposed to matter.
So the fact that this particular one is to be found amid the fields a few miles outside Norwich is somewhat irrelevant. It could be anywhere. Indeed, unlike most farms, which are sometimes named after the family that owns them or a local landmark, this one is simply called “Farm 2”. “Farm 1” is to be found in Staffordshire, in case you were wondering.
Farm boss’s dizzying ambition
These futuristic farm units are the brainwave of Tristan Fischer, a serial entrepreneur who has spent much of his career working on renewable energy in its various guises. His ambition now is dizzying: to be able to grow not just basil and chives in a farm like this but to grow other, trickier and more competitive crops too – from strawberries to wheat and rice.
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Only then, he says, can vertical farming stand a chance of truly changing the world.
The idea behind vertical farming itself is more than a century old. Back in 1915, American geologist Gilbert Ellis Bailey described how it could be done in theory. In theory, one should be able to grow plants hydroponically – in other words with a mineral substrate instead of soil – in a controlled environment and thereby increase the yield dramatically.
In one sense this is what’s already being done in greenhouses across much of Northern Europe and the US, where tomatoes and other warm-weather-loving vegetables are grown in temperature-controlled environments. However, while most of these greenhouses still depend on natural light (if sometimes bolstered by electric bulbs) the point behind vertical farming was that by controlling the amount of light, one could grow more or less everything, any time of the year. And by stacking the crops together one could yield even more crops in each acre of land one was using.
Look at a long-term chart of agricultural yields in this country and you start to see why this might matter. The quantity of crops we grow in each acre of land jumped dramatically in the second half of the 20th century – a consequence in part of liberal use of artificial fertiliser and in part of new technologies and systems. But that productivity rate started to tail off towards the end of the century.
‘Changing the equation’
Vertical farming promises, if it can make the numbers add up, to change the equation, dramatically increasing agricultural productivity in the coming decades. The question is whether the technology is there yet.
And when it comes to the technology, one thing has certainly changed. Those early vertical farms (the first attempts actually date back to the 1950s) all had a big problem: the bulbs. Incandescent bulbs were both too hot and too energy intensive to work in these environments. But the latest generation of LED bulbs are both cool and cheap, and it’s these bulbs you need (in vast numbers) if you’re going to make vertical farming work.
Here at Farm 2, you encounter row after row of trays, each stacked on top of each other, each carrying increasingly leafy basil plants. They sit under thousands of little LED bulbs which are tuned to precisely the right spectral frequency to encourage the plant to grow rapidly.
Mr Fischer says: “We’re on this downward cost curve on LEDs. And then when you think about other main inputs, energy – renewable energy – is constantly coming down as well.
“So you think about all the big drivers of vertical farming, they’re going down, whereas compared to full-grown crops, everything’s going up – the fertilisers, rents, water is becoming more expensive too.”
This farm – which currently sells to restaurant chains rather than direct to consumers – is now cost-competitive with the basil shipped (or more often flown) in from the Mediterranean and North Africa. The carbon footprint is considerably lower too.
“And our long-term goal is that we can get a lot cheaper,” says Mr Fischer. “If you look at Farm 1, we spent about £2.5m on lights in 2018. Fast forward to Farm 2; it’s seven and a half times bigger and in those three years the lights were effectively half the price. We’re also probably using 60 to 70 percent less power.”
It might seem odd to hear a farmer talk so much about energy and comparatively less about the kinds of things one associates with farmers – the soil or tractors or the weather – but vertical farming is in large part an energy business. If energy prices are low enough, it makes the crops here considerably cheaper.
But here in the UK, with power costs higher than anywhere else in the developed world, the prospects for this business are more challenged than elsewhere. Still, Mr Fischer’s objective is to prove the business case here before building bigger units elsewhere, in countries with much cheaper power.
In much the same way as Dutch growers came to dominate those greenhouses, he thinks the UK has a chance of dominating this new agricultural sector.
The owners of Shawbrook Group, the mid-sized British lender, are drawing up plans to kickstart London’s moribund listings arena with a stock market flotation, valuing it at more than £2bn.
Sky News has learnt that BC Partners and Pollen Street Capital, which took Shawbrook private in 2017, are close to appointing Goldman Sachs to oversee work on a potential initial public offering.
Other investment banks, possibly including Barclays, are expected to be added in the near future.
Shawbrook’s shareholders are said to be keen to take the company public during the first half of this year.
People close to the situation cautioned that no decision to proceed with a listing had been taken, and that it would be dependent upon market conditions.
If it does go ahead, Shawbrook would almost certainly rank among the largest companies to list in London during the first half of 2025.
Bankers and investors are also waiting to see whether British regulators give the green light to a flotation for Shein, the Chinese-founded online fashion giant, which would be one of the City’s biggest-ever floats if it takes place.
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Overall, London is fighting to overturn the impression that its public markets have become a troubled arena for public companies, afflicted by a lack of liquidity and weaker valuations than they might attract in the US.
In recent months, that perception has intensified with the decision of Ashtead, the FTSE-100 equipment rental company, to move its primary listing to New York.
Shawbrook, which employs close to 1,600 people, has 550,000 customers.
Founded in 2011, it was established as a specialist savings and lending institution, providing loans for home improvement projects and weddings, as well as business and real estate lending.
It is among a crop of mid-tier lenders, including OneSavings Bank, Aldermore Bank and Paragon Bank, which have collectively become a significant part of Britain’s banking landscape since the last financial crisis.
The bid to take Shawbrook public this year will come a year after its owners were reported to have hired Bank of America and Morgan Stanley to explore a sale or listing.
It explored a similar process in 2022 but abandoned it amid volatile market conditions.
The company has also sought to position itself at the heart of potential consolidation among the sector’s leading players.
In the autumn of 2023, Shawbrook approached Metro Bank about a possible takeover as the latter bank battled to stay afloat.
A series of proposals was rejected by Metro Bank’s board.
Just weeks earlier, Shawbrook sounded out the Co-operative Bank about a £3.5bn all-share merger in an attempt to pre-empt a wider auction of the former mutually owned lender.
That, too, was rebuffed, with the Co-operative Bank completing its sale to the Coventry Building Society this week.
Third-quarter results for Shawbrook released to bondholders in November disclosed 18% growth in its loan book on an annualised basis to just over £15bn.
BC Partners and Pollen Street own equal stakes in Shawbrook, with its management team also owning a minority.
The bank is run by chief executive Marcelino Castrillo.
“We continue to see promising opportunities for expansion and value creation across our core markets, including SME and real estate,” Mr Castrillo said in November.
“The combination of an exceptional customer franchise, a more stable macroeconomic outlook and increasing customer confidence means we are well-positioned to continue to deliver on our strategic ambitions throughout the remainder of 2024 and beyond.”
This weekend, Shawbrook, BC Partners and Pollen Street all declined to comment.
Donald Trump has said the UK is making “a very big mistake” in its fossil fuel policy – and should “get rid of windmills”.
In a post on Friday on his social media platform, Truth Social, Mr Trump shared news from November of a US oil producer pulling out of the North Sea, a major oil-producing region off the Scottish coast.
“The UK is making a very big mistake. Open up the North Sea. Get rid of windmills!”, the US president-elect wrote.
The Texan oil producer Apache said at the time it was withdrawing from the North Sea by 2029 in part due to the increase in windfall tax on fossil fuel producers.
The head of Apache’s parent company APA Corporation said in early November it had concluded the investment required to comply with UK regulations, “coupled with the onerous financial impact of the energy profits levy [windfall tax] makes production of hydrocarbons beyond the year 2029 uneconomic”.
Chief executive John Christmann added that “substantial investment” will be necessary to comply with regulatory requirements.
Mr Trump used a three-word campaign pledge “drill, baby, drill” during his successful election campaign, claiming he will increase oil and gas production during his second administration.
In the October budget announcement, UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves raised the windfall tax levied on profits of energy producers to 38%.
Called the energy price levy, it is a rise from the 25% introduced by Rishi Sunak in 2022 as energy prices soared following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Many oil and gas businesses reported record profits in the wake of the price hike.
The tax was intended to support households struggling with high gas and electricity bills amid a broader cost of living crisis.
Apache is just one of a glut of firms that made decisions to alter their North Sea extraction due to the Labour policy.
Even before the new government was elected, three companies, Jersey Oil and Gas, Serica Energy and Neo Energy – announced they were delaying, by a year, the planned start of production at the Buchan oilfield 120 miles to the north-east of Aberdeen.