‘I think he’s just in his head’: Why Aaron Judge has disappeared at exactly the wrong time for the Yankees
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Jesse Rogers, ESPN Staff Writer
NEW YORK — Another World Series game, another rough night at the plate for Aaron Judge. After he went 0-for-3 with another strikeout in the New York Yankees‘ Game 3 loss Monday night, New York finds itself in a familiar spot: waiting for its star slugger to break out.
“He’s one swing away,” Yankees hitting coach James Rowson told ESPN on Monday. “I know it’s a big story, but from my standpoint, this guy is one of the best hitters to ever play the game. On any given night the whole narrative gets rewritten.”
But with the Los Angeles Dodgers one win away from a World Series sweep, New York’s superstar slugger is running out of opportunities to flip the script. And those around the sport watching from the scouts’ seats, the executive offices or even just in front of their television sets at home see a specific problem that needs to be solved: Judge is chasing too many pitches outside the zone, and L.A. is taking advantage of it.
“The Dodgers are feeding him spin, spin, spin that he is chasing,” an American League scout told ESPN. “Then the fastball looks harder than it actually is, so he is out of timing. He needs to stop worrying about the big moment and just go with those sliders and take them into right field and the right-center-field gap.”
Handling anything thrown with break or spin has been Judge’s Achilles’ heel all postseason. According to ESPN Stats & Info, he’s hitting just .071 on breaking pitches in October, compared to .258 during the regular season. Meanwhile, his strikeout rate on those pitches is a whopping 58.5% compared to 39.8% from March through September.
Every time he flails at another breaking pitch for a strikeout, it allows the Dodgers to keep attacking with the same plan instead of having to challenge him with heat.
Judge is still doing damage off fastballs — when he sees them. He’s hitting .364 with a 1.429 OPS against pitches thrown 95 mph or faster in the playoffs, but so far this month, Judge has seen 6% fewer fastballs than he did during the regular season, and the frustration of not getting pitches he can drive is becoming obvious to observers.
“I think he might be pressing a little bit,” 2007 National League MVP Ryan Howard said on the field before Game 3. “Right now, I think he’s just in his head. He knows what pitch they’re trying to get him out on, and when you’re swinging and missing it, you’re kind of forcing it. Just have to relax a little.”
Despite the struggles, Judge’s manager has his back. Boone has made it clear that he is not considering moving Judge up or down in the lineup: “That’s our guy, and there’s pressure in the Series, whatever spot you’re hitting.”
One NL executive agreed with Boone’s mindset: “If this was the regular season, I could see moving him up to leadoff to get him going, but I don’t think Boone should do that. At this time of year, you have to believe in and stick with your best players. He’s the best of the best.”
So with the season on the line, can Judge rediscover his MVP form? Patience might be the key.
“He needs to get them back in the zone or take some walks,” the NL executive said. “How many does he have in the postseason?”
Judge has walked eight times this postseason but only twice in the past seven games after he walked an MLB-leading 133 times during the regular season. But the thing that could most help ignite Judge is about more than drawing free passes to first base — it’s about making pitchers come to him.
“Just wait for that pitch as long as it’s in the zone,” Howard said of the advice he’d give to Judge.
With the Yankees needing to pull off the seemingly impossible — winning four straight games to complete a World Series comeback — maybe Judge will finally get the one pitch that gets him going.
“He’s big enough, strong enough, to hit the ball out of any part of the ballpark.” an NL scout said. “He’s got to use the whole field. When he starts to use the whole field and up the middle, you’re going to see the Aaron Judge you saw all year long.”
The Yankees just have to hope they’ll still be playing long enough to see it happen.
The 2025 MLB All-Star Home Run Derby is fast approaching — and the field is set.
Braves hometown hero Ronald Acuna Jr. became the first player to commit to the event, which will be held at Truist Park in Atlanta on July 14 (8 p.m. ET on ESPN). He was followed by MLB home run leader Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners, James Wood of the Washington Nationals, Byron Buxton of the Minnesota Twins, Oneil Cruz of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Junior Caminero of the Tampa Bay Rays, Brent Rooker of the Athletics and Jazz Chisholm Jr. of the New York Yankees.
On Friday, however, Acuna was replaced by teammate Matt Olson.
With all the entrants announced, let’s break down their chances at taking home this year’s Derby prize.
Full All-Star Game coverage: How to watch, schedule, rosters, more
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 434 feet
Why he could win: Olson is a late replacement for Acuna as the home team’s representative at this year’s Derby. Apart from being the Braves’ first baseman, however, Olson also was born in Atlanta and grew up a Braves fan, giving him some extra motivation. The left-handed slugger led the majors in home runs in 2023 — his 54 round-trippers that season also set a franchise record — and he remains among the best in the game when it comes to exit velo and hard-hit rate.
Why he might not: The home-field advantage can also be a detriment if a player gets too hyped up in the first round. See Julio Rodriguez in Seattle in 2023, when he had a monster first round, with 41 home runs, but then tired out in the second round.
2025 home runs: 36 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: It’s the season of Cal! The Mariners’ catcher is having one of the greatest slugging first halves in MLB history, as he’s been crushing mistakes all season . His easy raw power might be tailor-made for the Derby — he ranks in the 87th percentile in average exit velocity and delivers the ball, on average, at the optimal home run launch angle of 23 degrees. His calm demeanor might also be perfect for the contest as he won’t get too amped up.
Why he might not: He’s a catcher — and one who has carried a heavy workload, playing in all but one game this season. This contest is as much about stamina as anything, and whether Raleigh can carry his power through three rounds would be a concern. No catcher has ever won the Derby, with only Ivan Rodriguez back in 2005 even reaching the finals.
2025 home runs: 24 | Longest: 451 feet
Why he could win: He’s big, he’s strong, he’s young, he’s awesome, he might or might not be able to leap tall buildings in a single bound. This is the perfect opportunity for Wood to show his talent on the national stage, and he wouldn’t be the first young player to star in the Derby. He ranks in the 97th percentile in average exit velocity and 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, so he can still muscle the ball out in BP even if he slightly mishits it. His long arms might be viewed as a detriment, but remember the similarly tall Aaron Judge won in 2017.
Why he might not: His natural swing isn’t a pure uppercut — he has a pretty low average launch angle of just 6.2 degrees — so we’ll see how that plays in a rapid-fire session. In real games, his power is primarily to the opposite field, but in a Home Run Derby you can get more cheapies pulling the ball down the line.
2025 home runs: 20 | Longest: 479 feet
Why he could win: Buxton’s raw power remains as impressive as nearly any hitter in the game. He crushed a 479-foot home run earlier this season and has four others of at least 425 feet. Indeed, his “no doubter” percentage — home runs that would be out of all 30 parks based on distance — is 75%, the highest in the majors among players with more than a dozen home runs. His bat speed ranks in the 89th percentile. In other words, two tools that could translate to a BP lightning show.
Why he might not: Buxton is 31 and the Home Run Derby feels a little more like a younger man’s competition. Teoscar Hernandez did win last year at age 31, but before that, the last winner older than 29 was David Ortiz in 2010, and that was under much different rules than are used now.
2025 home runs: 16 | Longest: 463 feet
Why he could win: If you drew up a short list of players everyone wants to see in the Home Run Derby, Cruz would be near the top. He has the hardest-hit ball of the 2025 season, and the hardest ever tracked by Statcast, a 432-foot missile of a home run with an exit velocity of 122.9 mph. He also crushed a 463-foot home run in Anaheim that soared way beyond the trees in center field. With his elite bat speed — 100th percentile — Cruz has the ability to awe the crowd with a potentially all-time performance.
Why he might not: Like all first-time contestants, can he stay within himself and not get too caught up in the moment? He has a long swing, which will result in some huge blasts, but might not be the most efficient for a contest like this one, where the more swings a hitter can get in before the clock expires, the better.
2025 home runs: 23 | Longest: 425 feet
Why he could win: Although Caminero was one of the most hyped prospects entering 2024, everyone kind of forgot about him heading into this season since he didn’t immediately rip apart the majors as a rookie. In his first full season, however, he has showed off his big-time raw power — giving him a chance to become just the third player to reach 40 home runs in his age-21 season. He has perhaps the quickest bat in the majors, ranking in the 100th percentile in bat speed, and his top exit velocity ranks in the top 15. That could translate to a barrage of home runs.
Why he might not: In game action, Caminero does hit the ball on the ground quite often — in fact, he’s on pace to break Jim Rice’s record for double plays grounded into in a season. If he gets out of rhythm, that could lead to a lot of low line drives during the Derby instead of fly balls that clear the fences.
2025 home runs: 19 | Longest: 440 feet
Why he could win: The Athletics slugger has been one of the top power hitters in the majors for three seasons now and is on his way to a third straight 30-homer season. Rooker has plus bat speed and raw power, but his biggest strength is an optimal average launch angle (19 degrees in 2024, 15 degrees this season) that translates to home runs in game action. That natural swing could be picture perfect for the Home Run Derby. He also wasn’t shy about saying he wanted to participate — and maybe that bodes well for his chances.
Why he might not: Rooker might not have quite the same raw power as some of the other competitors, as he has just one home run longer than 425 feet in 2025. But that’s a little nitpicky, as 11 of his home runs have still gone 400-plus feet. He competed in the college home run derby in Omaha while at Mississippi State in 2016 and finished fourth.
2025 home runs: 17 | Longest: 442 feet
Why he could win: Chisholm might not be the most obvious name to participate, given his career high of 24 home runs, but he has belted 17 already in 2025 in his first 61 games after missing some time with an injury. He ranks among the MLB leaders in a couple of home run-related categories, ranking in the 96th percentile in expected slugging percentage and 98th percentile in barrel rate. His raw power might not match that of the other participants, but he’s a dead-pull hitter who has increased his launch angle this season, which might translate well to the Derby, even if he won’t be the guy hitting the longest home runs.
Why he might not: Most of the guys who have won this have been big, powerful sluggers. Chisholm is listed at 5-foot-11, 184 pounds, and you have to go back to Miguel Tejada in 2004 to find the last player under 6 foot to win.
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