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The Labour manifesto never did add up.

On the one hand, Keir Starmer vowed there would be “no return to austerity” under his government, while also insisting he had “no plans” to raise taxes beyond an £8bn raid on private equity, oil and gas companies, private school fees and non-doms to pay for more teachers and NHS appointments.

In reality, whoever won the election faced tens of billions of pounds in tough choices over tax and spending. But instead of levelling with us, the two main parties embarked in a “conspiracy of silence” in order to win votes.

On Wednesday, the truth will out, in a budget which will define Sir Keir Starmer’s first term in a way his manifesto did not.

Countdown to budget enters final stretch – Politics Latest

There will be huge tax rises and there will be changes in the fiscal rules to allow the chancellor to borrow more to invest in Britain’s crumbling infrastructure.

And we will finally find out which “working people” are the ones Sir Keir Starmer wants to protect as small and big businesses, property owners, shareholders – and perhaps “Middle England” too – braces itself for tax rises, and the government braces itself for the fall-out.

The prime minister set the hare running on who’s in the firing line for tax rises last week at the Commonwealth Heads of Government summit in Samoa when he told me “working people” were those who “go out and earn their living, usually paid in a sort of monthly cheque” but they did not have the ability to “write a cheque to get out of difficulties”.

He told me explicitly that “working people” who also owned assets, such as property or shares, did not fit his definition.

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What to expect from the budget

So business owners, property owners and Middle England do have some cause for alarm.

The pledge to “not increase national insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of income tax, or VAT” has been tweaked in recent weeks to a promise to “protect the payslips of working people”.

Employers are expecting an increase in national insurance contributions they must pay on wages – many will argue this is a flagrant breach of a manifesto pledge.

In another blow to employers, but a win for those struggling on low wages, Labour have also announced a 6.7% increase in the National Living Wage for over three millions workers next year, amounting to a pay boost worth £1,400-a-year for an eligible full-time worker.

Is this the moment the manifesto is revealed as a sham? Labour insiders insist not and point, again, to the “£22bn black hole” in the current financial year they discovered when their took office – and which ratchets up to a £40bn gap in the public finances over the course of the parliament – that they now have to plug.

Politically, they hope to blame the big tax rises and borrowing on the economic inheritance left to them by the Tories and buy some space with voters.

As one senior government figure put it to me: “The scale of the economic inheritance is bigger than thought and it has blown a political and economic hole in our first few months.”

This will be a message Rachel Reeves will want to land at the despatch box on Wednesday. But a public disillusioned with politicians might not see it like that as they watch a Labour chancellor, flanked by a prime minister who promised the opposite in the election, embark on a massive round of tax rises that but months ago they were told were not coming down the tracks.

Ms Reeves is set to deliver the budget from 12.30pm. Pic: Treasury
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Ms Reeves is set to deliver the budget from 12.30pm. Pic: Treasury

Insiders acknowledge this is going to be a tax and spend budget that goes far beyond what we were told to expect when Labour were asking for votes.

But they hope what they can do with this big moment is to take it beyond the winners and losers and frame this first Labour budget in over 14 years as “forging a new settlement” for the people and the country.

To that end, this will be the “fixing the foundations and change” budget: “This is a new economic settlement from a government willing to investment and, in particular, borrow to invest, and that is a change and it will show a path towards long term growth.”

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Because, as we drill into who is a working person, and who is going to be hit with tax raises in this budget, there will also be a big story tomorrow about billions of investment in our country’s energy and transport infrastructure, into housing and hospitals and schools.

“If we get it right, on the evening of the budget, we want to be able to show that we protected your pay slip, are fixing the NHS and investing to rebuild Britain,” one senior figure explains. “What’s the alternative? Choice is going to feature very heavily in the chancellor’s speech. We have made our choices and we are asking business and the wealthiest to pay a bit more to grow our economy and protecting working people.”

And this new settlement, when it lands tomorrow, will be massive. The Chancellor Rachel Reeves intends to change her borrowing rules to allow up to £53bn more in borrowing to be spent on public services and infrastructure.

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Trailing the decision at the International Monetary Fund summit in Washington last week, the chancellor said she was making the change in order to take opportunities for the economy “in industries from life sciences to carbon capture, storage and clean energy to AI and technology”, as well as using borrowing to “repair our crumbling schools and hospitals”.

The danger for the chancellor is that what actually comes out the other side is anger over tax rises not flagged in the manifesto, or accusations that the government is being Janus-faced if it claims it’s protecting working people should it also, as speculated, extend the freeze on income tax thresholds beyond the 2028 deadline set by the last government, which would drag millions of workers into higher tax bands (and raise as much as £7bn a year for the government).

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Will there be ‘budget nasties?’

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How might the middle classes and wealthier voters respond to their incomes being squeezed? And how might business respond to being asked to pay billions more in taxes from a government that has been banging on about being pro-business for months?

It is going to be a difficult sell, no doubt. But this government is calculating that short-term pain now will translate into gains in the medium to long-term if Reeves can pull it off and kick-start economic growth.

The hope is that come the next Labour manifesto, the pledges on the NHS, economy, better housing and jobs have been met and the public can forgive the tax rises foisted on them to get there.

Starmer talked endlessly about it being a change election and it will be this be this budget, not his manifesto, that proves the point.

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Trump mulls post-war Gaza plan featuring tokenized land: Report

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Trump mulls post-war Gaza plan featuring tokenized land: Report

Trump mulls post-war Gaza plan featuring tokenized land: Report

A plan reportedly circulating in the Trump administration would sees the US take over Gaza and give Palestinians a digital token for their land.

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Reform deputy attacks govt for ‘protecting rights’ of illegal migrants – and fires back at Archbishop of York

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Reform deputy attacks govt for 'protecting rights' of illegal migrants - and fires back at Archbishop of York

Reform UK has hit back at both the Archbishop of York and the government following criticism of its immigration policies.

Leader Nigel Farage announced the party’s flagship immigration plan during a flashy news conference held at an aircraft hangar in Oxford on Tuesday.

The party pledged to deport anybody who comes to the UK illegally, regardless of whether they might come to harm, and said it would pay countries with questionable human rights records – such as Afghanistan – to take people back.

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It also said it would leave numerous international agreements, and revoke the Human Rights Act, in order to do this.

The policy was criticised by the Conservatives, who said Mr Farage was “copying our homework”, while parties such as the Liberal Democrats and the Greens condemned it.

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Archbishop Stephen Cottrell and Richard Tice MP. Pics: PA
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Archbishop Stephen Cottrell and Richard Tice MP. Pics: PA

But the plan came under fire from an altogether different angle on Saturday, when the Archbishop of York accused it of being an “isolationist, short-term kneejerk” approach, with no “long-term solutions”.

Stephen Cottrell, who is the acting head of the Church of England, told Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips that he had “every sympathy” with those who find the issue of immigration tricky. But he said Reform UK’s plan does “nothing to address the issue of what brings people to this country”, and would in fact, make “the problem worse”.

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In full: Richard Tice on Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips

Speaking on the same programme, Richard Tice, Reform’s deputy leader, responded to the archbishop’s criticisms, saying that “all of it is wrong”.

The MP for Boston and Skegness said he was a Christian who “enjoys” the church – but that the “role of the archbishop is not actually to interfere with international migration policies”.

Mr Tice then turned his fire on the government, accusing ministers of being “more interested in protecting the rights of people who’ve come here illegally… than looking after the rights of British citizens”.

He accused ministers of having “abandoned” their duty of “looking after the interests of British citizens”.

Mr Tice reaffirmed his party’s policy that the UK should leave the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), calling it a “70-year-old, out-of-date, unfit-for-purpose agreement”.

The Reform UK deputy leader also:

• Defended plans to pay the Taliban to take migrants back, comparing it to doing business deals with “people you don’t like”

• Said the Royal Navy should be deployed in the English Channel as a “deterrent”, but added: “We’re not saying sink the boats”

• Urged the government to call an early general election

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Farage ‘wants to provoke anger’

Meanwhile, Bridget Phillipson, the education secretary, told Sky News that Reform “want to provoke anger, but they don’t actually want to solve the problems that we face in front of us”.

She told Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips the UK had a “proud tradition [of] supporting those facing persecution”.

But she added: “We will make sure that people who have no right to be in this country are removed from this country. That’s right. It’s what people expect. It’s what this government will deliver.”

Ms Phillipson also insisted there “needs to be reform of the ECHR” and said the home secretary is “looking at the article eight provisions”, which cover the right to a private and family life, to see “whether they need updating and reforming for the modern age”.

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However, she refused to say what the government would do if it is found that the ECHR is unreformable. Instead, she defended Labour’s position of staying in the governance of the convention, saying that honouring the “rule of law” is important.

She added: “Our standing in the world matters if we want to strike trade deals with countries. We need to be a country that’s taken seriously. We need to be a country that honours our obligations and honours the rule of law.”

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Sunday Morning With Trevor Phillips

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Asylum seekers to remain at Bell Hotel

Ms Phillipson was also drawn on the recent court ruling in favour of the Home Office, which overturned an injunction banning The Bell Hotel in Epping from housing asylum seekers.

Challenged on whether the government is prioritising the rights of asylum seekers over British citizens, she said it “is about a balance of rights”.

The cabinet minister also repeated the government’s plans to end the use of hotels to house asylum seekers by 2029.

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‘We should have overruled law’

Shadow Cabinet Office minister Alex Burghart said the Conservatives would be willing to leave the ECHR – if this route is recommended to them.

The Tories have asked a senior judge to look into the “legal intricacies” of leaving the convention, which he said is “not straightforward”. He said when the party receives that report, it will then make a decision.

Challenged on whether the Tories will leave if that is what the report recommends, he added: “If that’s what’s necessary, we will do it.”

Mr Burghart also said he believed the previous Conservative government’s biggest mistake was that “we did not go far enough on overruling human rights legislation”, which prevented it from “taking the tough action that was absolutely necessary”.

But he added the Conservatives have now “put forward very clear legislation that would solve this problem” – though he concluded Labour “isn’t going to do it” so the problem “is going to get worse”.

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Archbishop of York Stephen Cottrell tells Nigel Farage ‘kneejerk’ migrant deportation plan won’t solve problem

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Archbishop of York Stephen Cottrell tells Nigel Farage 'kneejerk' migrant deportation plan won't solve problem

The Archbishop of York has told Sky News the UK should resist Reform’s “kneejerk” plan for the mass deportation of migrants, telling Nigel Farage he is not offering any “long-term solution”.

Stephen Cottrell said in an interview with Trevor Phillips he has “every sympathy” with people who are concerned about asylum seekers coming to the country illegally.

But he criticised the plan announced by Reform on Tuesday to deport 600,000 people, which would be enabled by striking deals with the Taliban and Iran, saying it will not “solve the problem”.

Mr Cottrell is currently acting head of the Church of England while a new Archbishop of Canterbury is chosen.

Pic: Jacob King/PA Wire
Image:
Pic: Jacob King/PA Wire

The Archbishop of York, Stephen Cottrell in 2020.
File pic: PA
Image:
The Archbishop of York, Stephen Cottrell in 2020.
File pic: PA

Phillips asked him: “What’s your response to the people who are saying the policy should be ‘you land here, unlawfully, you get locked up and you get deported straight away. No ifs, no buts’?”

Mr Cottrell said he would tell them “you haven’t solved the problem”, adding: “You’ve just put it somewhere else and you’ve done nothing to address the issue of what brings people to this country.

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“And so if you think that’s the answer, you will discover in due course that all you have done is made the problem worse.

“Don’t misunderstand me, I have every sympathy with those who find this difficult, every sympathy – as I do with those living in poverty.

“But… we should actively resist the kind of isolationist, short term kneejerk ‘send them home’.”

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What do public make of Reform’s plans?

Nigel Farage at the launch of Reform UK's plan to deport asylum seekers. Pic: PA
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Nigel Farage at the launch of Reform UK’s plan to deport asylum seekers. Pic: PA

Asked if that was his message to the Reform leader, he said: “Well, it is. I mean, Mr Farage is saying the things he’s saying, but he is not offering any long-term solution to the big issues which are convulsing our world, which lead to this. And, I see no other way.”

You can watch the full interview on Sunday Morning with Trevor Phillips on Sky News from 8.30am

Mr Farage, the MP for Clacton, was asked at a news conference this week what he would say if Christian leaders opposed his plan.

“Whoever the Christian leaders are at any given point in time, I think over the last decades, quite a few of them have been rather out of touch, perhaps with their own flock,” he said.

“We believe that what we’re offering is right and proper, and we believe for a political party that was founded around the slogan of family, community, country that we are doing right by all of those things, with these plans we put forward today.”

Sky News has approached Mr Farage for comment.

Farage won’t be greeting this as good news of the gospel – nor will govt ministers

When Tony Blair’s spin doctor Alastair Campbell told journalists that “We don’t do God”, many took it as a statement of ideology.

In fact it was the caution of a canny operator who knows that the most dangerous opponent in politics is a religious leader licensed to challenge your very morality.

Stephen Cottrell, the Archbishop of York, currently the effective head of the worldwide Anglican communion, could not have been clearer in his denunciation of what he calls the Reform party’s “isolationist, short term, kneejerk ‘send them home'” approach to asylum and immigration.

I sense that having ruled himself out of the race for next Archbishop of Canterbury, Reverend Cottrell feels free to preach a liberal doctrine.

Unusually, in our interview he pinpoints a political leader as, in effect, failing to demonstrate Christian charity.

Nigel Farage, who describes himself as a practising Christian, won’t be greeting this as the good news of the gospel.

But government ministers will also be feeling nervous.

Battered for allowing record numbers of cross- Channel migrants, and facing legal battles on asylum hotels that may go all the way to the Supreme Court, Labour has tried to head off the Reform challenge with tougher language on border control.

The last thing the prime minister needs right now is to make an enemy of the Almighty – or at least of his representatives on Earth.

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