Rachel Reeves to deliver ‘fixing the foundations and change’ budget – but it’ll be a difficult sell

Published

1 year ago

October 29, 2024

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The Labour manifesto never did add up.

On the one hand, Keir Starmer vowed there would be “no return to austerity” under his government, while also insisting he had “no plans” to raise taxes beyond an £8bn raid on private equity, oil and gas companies, private school fees and non-doms to pay for more teachers and NHS appointments.

In reality, whoever won the election faced tens of billions of pounds in tough choices over tax and spending. But instead of levelling with us, the two main parties embarked in a “conspiracy of silence” in order to win votes.

On Wednesday, the truth will out, in a budget which will define Sir Keir Starmer’s first term in a way his manifesto did not.

Countdown to budget enters final stretch – Politics Latest

There will be huge tax rises and there will be changes in the fiscal rules to allow the chancellor to borrow more to invest in Britain’s crumbling infrastructure.

And we will finally find out which “working people” are the ones Sir Keir Starmer wants to protect as small and big businesses, property owners, shareholders – and perhaps “Middle England” too – braces itself for tax rises, and the government braces itself for the fall-out.

The prime minister set the hare running on who’s in the firing line for tax rises last week at the Commonwealth Heads of Government summit in Samoa when he told me “working people” were those who “go out and earn their living, usually paid in a sort of monthly cheque” but they did not have the ability to “write a cheque to get out of difficulties”.

He told me explicitly that “working people” who also owned assets, such as property or shares, did not fit his definition.

So business owners, property owners and Middle England do have some cause for alarm.

The pledge to “not increase national insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of income tax, or VAT” has been tweaked in recent weeks to a promise to “protect the payslips of working people”.

Employers are expecting an increase in national insurance contributions they must pay on wages – many will argue this is a flagrant breach of a manifesto pledge.

In another blow to employers, but a win for those struggling on low wages, Labour have also announced a 6.7% increase in the National Living Wage for over three millions workers next year, amounting to a pay boost worth £1,400-a-year for an eligible full-time worker.

Is this the moment the manifesto is revealed as a sham? Labour insiders insist not and point, again, to the “£22bn black hole” in the current financial year they discovered when their took office – and which ratchets up to a £40bn gap in the public finances over the course of the parliament – that they now have to plug.

Politically, they hope to blame the big tax rises and borrowing on the economic inheritance left to them by the Tories and buy some space with voters.

As one senior government figure put it to me: “The scale of the economic inheritance is bigger than thought and it has blown a political and economic hole in our first few months.”

This will be a message Rachel Reeves will want to land at the despatch box on Wednesday. But a public disillusioned with politicians might not see it like that as they watch a Labour chancellor, flanked by a prime minister who promised the opposite in the election, embark on a massive round of tax rises that but months ago they were told were not coming down the tracks.

Insiders acknowledge this is going to be a tax and spend budget that goes far beyond what we were told to expect when Labour were asking for votes.

But they hope what they can do with this big moment is to take it beyond the winners and losers and frame this first Labour budget in over 14 years as “forging a new settlement” for the people and the country.

To that end, this will be the “fixing the foundations and change” budget: “This is a new economic settlement from a government willing to investment and, in particular, borrow to invest, and that is a change and it will show a path towards long term growth.”

Because, as we drill into who is a working person, and who is going to be hit with tax raises in this budget, there will also be a big story tomorrow about billions of investment in our country’s energy and transport infrastructure, into housing and hospitals and schools.

“If we get it right, on the evening of the budget, we want to be able to show that we protected your pay slip, are fixing the NHS and investing to rebuild Britain,” one senior figure explains. “What’s the alternative? Choice is going to feature very heavily in the chancellor’s speech. We have made our choices and we are asking business and the wealthiest to pay a bit more to grow our economy and protecting working people.”

And this new settlement, when it lands tomorrow, will be massive. The Chancellor Rachel Reeves intends to change her borrowing rules to allow up to £53bn more in borrowing to be spent on public services and infrastructure.

Trailing the decision at the International Monetary Fund summit in Washington last week, the chancellor said she was making the change in order to take opportunities for the economy “in industries from life sciences to carbon capture, storage and clean energy to AI and technology”, as well as using borrowing to “repair our crumbling schools and hospitals”.

The danger for the chancellor is that what actually comes out the other side is anger over tax rises not flagged in the manifesto, or accusations that the government is being Janus-faced if it claims it’s protecting working people should it also, as speculated, extend the freeze on income tax thresholds beyond the 2028 deadline set by the last government, which would drag millions of workers into higher tax bands (and raise as much as £7bn a year for the government).

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How might the middle classes and wealthier voters respond to their incomes being squeezed? And how might business respond to being asked to pay billions more in taxes from a government that has been banging on about being pro-business for months?

It is going to be a difficult sell, no doubt. But this government is calculating that short-term pain now will translate into gains in the medium to long-term if Reeves can pull it off and kick-start economic growth.

The hope is that come the next Labour manifesto, the pledges on the NHS, economy, better housing and jobs have been met and the public can forgive the tax rises foisted on them to get there.

Starmer talked endlessly about it being a change election and it will be this be this budget, not his manifesto, that proves the point.

Politics

Starmer ‘playing whack-a-mole’ to keep US on side – but will it be enough?

Published

17 hours ago

November 22, 2025

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Starmer 'playing whack-a-mole' to keep US on side - but will it be enough?

Keir Starmer flies out of South Africa this evening with two massive issues on his agenda – a potentially manifesto-busting budget and, as it stands, an unacceptable Ukrainian peace deal.

As he prepared to depart for London, the prime minister confirmed he was dispatching national security adviser Jonathan Powell to Geneva for talks with US officials, other European security advisers and Ukrainian representatives – as Europe and Ukraine scramble to reinsert themselves into a plan drawn up between Washington and Moscow.

The prime minister said on Saturday there was “more to do on the plan” in the coming days and the focus now was to try to make progress in Geneva.

Follow the latest: European leaders raise concerns over plan for Ukraine

After speaking on the phone to Donald Trump, Downing Street said the pair agreed their teams would work together on the US leader’s proposal in the Swiss city on Sunday.

Starmer also reiterated Britain’s “steadfast support for Ukraine” in a call with President Zelenskyy – as allies try to swing this deal more in Ukraine‘s favour, with the UK and other international leaders clear on their concerns to limit the size of the Ukrainian army and give up territory to Russia.

But in his remarks on camera, the prime minister was at pains to neither criticise the current deal nor President Trump.

One figure told me that the PM wants to act as a bridge between the Europeans and the US and has been playing a “game of whack-a-mole” over the past couple of days in an effort to keep others from publicly saying the deal is unacceptable for fear it would only serve to irritate President Trump and hurt Ukraine.

Earlier, the prime minister said he would talk to his US counterpart in the coming days.

“I’m absolutely clear in my mind that President Trump wants a just and lasting peace, not just from the actions he’s taken towards that end, but also from the private discussions that I’ve had with him,” Mr Starmer said.

“So I know what he’s trying to achieve. We all want to achieve that.”

But there will be a question about what the alternative options are if allies cannot improve this deal by President Trump’s Thursday deadline.

The first option is to try to improve it and also slow down the process and buy more time, but if that fails, are allies looking at scenarios where they try to shore up Ukraine’s war efforts without the US support?

The prime minister responded by talking about point five in the 28-point plan, in which Ukraine is offered security guarantees from the US.

“That fortifies in me the belief that what we’re all trying to achieve here is a just and lasting peace will only be just as lasting if there are security guarantees,” Mr Starmer said.

“And if we bear in mind that matters for Ukraine are always to be determined by Ukraine.”

The next 24 hours will be critical as the Europeans, Ukraine and other allies try to improve this deal.

Politics

Starmer refuses to rule out manifesto-breaking tax rises in budget

Published

2 days ago

November 21, 2025

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Starmer refuses to rule out manifesto-breaking tax rises in budget

The prime minister has refused to rule out manifesto-breaking tax hikes in next week’s budget while speaking to Sky News political editor Beth Rigby.

Sir Keir Starmer was interviewed by Rigby while the pair were in South Africa for a meeting of the G20 group of nations.

Despite the government last year indicating it was not going to raise more taxes, it appears that Wednesday’s fiscal event will involve substantial increases in levies.

The 2024 Labour manifesto said: “We will ensure taxes on working people are kept as low as possible.

“Labour will not increase taxes on working people, which is why we will not increase national insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of income tax, or VAT.”

At the start of their interview, the prime minister was asked by Rigby if it was important for politicians to “stick to their word”.

Sir Keir said: “Yes, it is important that politicians stick to their word.

“They have to make decisions against a political backdrop. And, we’ve also got big decisions to make in the budget that’s coming in just a few days time.”

This caveat matches the expectations that a range of taxes are going to be increased so the government can keep its spending pledges and increase its fiscal headroom amid worsening economic headwinds.

There was chaos last week after the increase in income tax that many had expected to be on the way was revealed to no longer be on the cards.

Asked specifically on the manifesto commitment on tax, Sir Keir told Rigby that decisions will be made “against a very difficult backdrop”.

In total, the prime minister refused 12 times to rule out tax rises.

He added it was “important to take the right decisions for our country”.

Rigby pointed out in the lead-up to the 2024 Budget, the prime minister was more unequivocal, saying income tax, national insurance and VAT would not all go up.

The prime minister declined to make the same promise, saying the decisions on tax will be announced on Wednesday.

However, Sir Keir said the budget will be guided by “principles”, including “fairness”.

The prime minister said the three areas he is “bearing down on” are the NHS, cutting national debt and dealing with the cost of living crisis.

One tax rise that has not been ruled out is what is known as a “stealth tax rise” of freezing income tax thresholds.

Rigby highlighted that in last year’s budget, Rachel Reeves said freezing thresholds will “hurt working people” – and asked the prime minister if he agreed.

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Sir Keir said: “We are going to set out our decisions.

“We will have absolutely in mind that the cost of living is the number one issue for people across the country.”

Pushed again, if working people will have their taxes increased, the prime minister instead mentioned he has people who are “struggling with the cost of living” in mind when making decisions.

Politics

Ex-Coinbase lawyer announces run for New York Attorney General, citing crypto policy

Published

2 days ago

November 21, 2025

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Ex-Coinbase lawyer announces run for New York Attorney General, citing crypto policy

Khurram Dara, a former policy lawyer at cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, officially launched his campaign for New York State Attorney General.

In a Friday notice, Dara cited his “regulatory and policy experience, particularly in the crypto and fintech space” among his reasons to try to unseat Attorney General Letitia James in 2026.

The former Coinbase lawyer had been hinting since August at potential plans to run for office, claiming that James had engaged in “lawfare” against the crypto industry in New York.

Law, Politics, New York, Elections — *Source:* *Khurram Dara*

Until July, Dara was the regulatory and policy principal at Bain Capital Crypto, the digital asset arm of the investment company. According to his LinkedIn profile, he worked as Coinbase’s policy counsel from June 2022 to January 2023 and was previously employed at the crypto companies Fluidity and Airswap.

James, who took office in 2019, has faced criticism from many in the crypto industry for filing lawsuits against companies on behalf of affected New Yorkers, including Genesis, KuCoin and NovaTech. Whoever assumes the role of New York’s attorney general would have significant discretion over whether to file charges against crypto companies.

Dara, who said he plans to run as a Republican, also echoed Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s recent winning campaign, citing New Yorkers’ concerns about the cost of living and affordability. Cointelegraph reached out to Dara for comment, but had not received a response at the time of publication.

The lawyer who represented XRP holders is also running for office again

As the deadline approached for candidates for various offices to announce their runs, former Massachusetts senatorial candidate John Deaton said he would try to unseat a Democrat again.

Deaton ran against Senator Elizabeth Warren in 2024, losing by about 700,000 votes. On Nov. 10, however, he announced he would run as a Republican again, attempting to unseat Senator Ed Markey in 2026.