Tesla disclosed that it is planning to return to growth in vehicle deliveries next year with an extra ~500,000 electric cars.
Here’s how it plans to do it.
For years, Tesla has been guiding a roughly 50% growth rate in EV deliveries leading to 20 million cars per year in 2030.
That growth crashed this year, and Tesla is now expected to be roughly flat in terms of car deliveries in 2024 compared to last year.
Interestingly, the pause in growth has encouraged Tesla to share some more precise growth guidance for the first time in a while.
Tesla has shared that it plans to grow deliveries between 20 and 30% in 2025.
If Tesla can deliver a record number of 515,000 vehicles in Q4, as guided, it will deliver about 1,850,000 in 2024.
It means that Tesla expects to deliver between 2.2 and 2.4 million electric vehicles in 2025.
Tesla has grown at a 30% rate in the past, but it has never done it when it was producing vehicles at such a high rate.
It’s going to be a difficult task, but Tesla has a plan to make it happen.
After a full year of production in 2024, Cybertruck is expected to contribute more in 2025.
Tesla currently lists a production capacity about 125,000 units. That’s likely more than twice as many Cybertrucks as Tesla is expected to deliver this year.
It remains to be seen if Tesla can find the demand for it, but the Cybertruck’s production ramp should contribute to Tesla’s growth in 2025 – although it will be far from enough to reach the goal.
The real contributors are expected to be two new vehicles that Tesla is planning to launch in the first half of 2025.
Earlier this year, we reported that Elon Musk had canceled plans for new, cheaper Tesla vehicles built on the new ‘unboxed’ platform, often referred to as “the $25,000 Tesla.”
These currently unnamed new vehicles are expected to be cheaper than Model 3/Y, which currently start at $43,000 before incentives – likely closer to $30.000-$35,000.
Those vehicles are expected to contribute more to Tesla’s growth, but since they will only launch in the first half of 2025, the contribution will be somewhat limited in 2025 as Tesla ramps up production.
When discussing the growth guidance, Musk mentioned the “lower-cost vehicles” as contributing to the growth, but he also said that “the advent of autonomy” would contribute:
We can’t overcome massive force majeure events, but I think with our lower-cost vehicles with the advent of autonomy, something like a 20% to 30% growth next year is my best guess.
It sounds like he means that the improvements in Tesla’s Full Self-Driving will help Tesla sell more vehicles.
I have already extensively shared my doubts about Tesla’s capacity to release unsupervised self-driving this year, so I don’t think it’s worth going too much into.
FSD will likely improve next year and it could convince some people to buy Tesla vehicles, but I doubt it will be a significant factor.
The new cheaper models are where the real opportunity is at, but like I said, it will depend on the production ramp.
I think it’s also important to think about cannibalization.
Many people think that because the new vehicles will be produced on the same production lines as Model 3 and Model Y they will look very similar, but that’s not necessarily the case. Tesla produces Model S and X on the same line, and they are fairly different.
But even if they are fairly different, they will likely steal some sales from Tesla’s lower-end vehicles.
I think Tesla can achieve that growth next year, but it won’t be easy.
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Sustainable construction experts McKinstry have teamed up with leading BESS developers Viridi and the Denver Public Library to deploy a first-of-its-kind solar and battery storage system that sets a new standard for fire safety.
The Denver Public Library sought a battery energy storage system (BESS) that could deliver cost savings without compromising safety for staff, visitors, or the architecturally significant, Michael Graves–designed structure itself. That required a battery backup solution that not only met the city’s fire safety standards, but also addressed public fears about the risk of lithium-ion battery fires.
That unique set of project priorities led the library to Viridi, makers of the RPSLinkEX battery solution that’s equipped with a unique, “passive Fail-Safe thermal management and anti-propagation technology” designed to prevent the sort of thermal runaway that leads to li-ion battery fires.
“Public facilities like the Denver Public Library are at the forefront of demonstrating that energy resilience and safety can go hand in hand,” said Jon M. Williams, CEO at Viridi. “This installation highlights how fail-safe battery storage can empower communities to maximize renewable energy, reduce costs, and maintain reliability – all without compromise.”
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Keeping it safe
Denver Public Library; by Michael Graves.
Viridi doesn’t talk too much about how its passive Fail-Safe thermal management system works, but if you’re picturing heat-dissipating layers, fire-resistant insulation, and strategically-placed phase change materials (or PCMs) limiting the transfer of heat from one cell to another if it begins to overheat, you’ve probably cracked it.
These passive safety features enable safer deployment scenarios in occupied buildings or near critical infrastructure by reducing dependence on active fire suppression systems like sprinklers or fire extinguishers, and convinced the City of Denver to move forward with the project, which is the city’s first-ever solar + battery storage system.
“The entire McKinstry team is very excited about developing and constructing the first Solar + BESS project for the City and County of Denver,” said Jon Ensley, Sr. Construction Project Engineer at McKinstry. “We are appreciative of all our partners and stakeholders who helped to achieve this goal. We value Viridi’s expertise in deploying this technology and the whole team has been great to work with.”
McKinstry says this latest solar project sets, “a new benchmark for how cities can combine renewable energy and battery storage without compromising safety.” And, with solutions like the RPSLinkEX building systems that meet city planners and politicians where they are, instead of trying to educated them about the objective, proven safety of li-ion batteries, Viridi is helping communities adopt cleaner, more resilient clean energy solutions sooner rather than later.
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China’s Dongfang Electric has installed a 26-megawatt offshore wind turbine, snatching the title of world’s most powerful from Siemens Gamesa’s 21.5 turbine in Denmark.
Photo: Dongfang Electric Corporation
The Chinese state-owned manufacturer announced today that it has installed the world’s most powerful wind turbine prototype at a testing and certification base. This turbine, the world’s largest for capacity and size, boasts a blade wheel diameter of more than 310 meters (1,107 feet) and a hub height of 185 meters (607 feet). Dongfang shipped the turbine’s nacelle earlier this month – the world’s heaviest – along with three blades.
This offshore wind turbine is designed for areas with wind speeds of 8 meters per second and above. With average winds of 10 meters per second, just one of these giants can generate 100 GWh of power annually, which is enough to power 55,000 homes. That’s enough to cut standard coal consumption by 30,000 tons and reduce CO2 emissions by 80,000 tons. Dongfang says it’s wind resistant up to 17 (200 km/h) on the extended Beaufort scale.
In May, Dongfang said it had completed static load testing on the turbine’s blades, and the turbine is now undergoing fatigue testing, which could take up to a year before the turbine is fully certified.
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The autonomous ag equipment experts behind the GUSS robotic sprayers have been developing their AI tech as part of a JV with John Deere for years — and now, that marriage is official. John Deere has acquired 100% of GUSS, and has big plans to pick up that tech and run with it like a … well, you know.
Since then, interest in automated ag equipment has only grown — fueled not just by rising demand for affordable food and produce, but by a national labor shortage made worse by the Trump Administration’s tough anti-immigration policies as well. It’s specifically those challenges around labor availability, input costs, and crop protection that GUSS and John Deere have been spending millions to address.
“Fully integrating GUSS into the John Deere portfolio is a continuation of our dedication to serving high-value crop customers with advanced, scalable technologies to help them do more with less,” explains Julien Le Vely, director, Production Systems, High Value & Small Acre Crops, at John Deere. “GUSS brings a proven solution to a fast-growing segment of agriculture, and its team has a deep understanding of customer needs in orchards and vineyards. We’re excited to have them fully part of the John Deere team.”
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About GUSS
GUSS autonomous farm sprayer; via John Deere.
The GUSS electric sprayer is powered by a Kreisel Battery Pack 63 (KBP63), which has a nominal energy capacity of 63 kWh, enabling the machine to operate for 10-12 continuous hours between overnight (L2) charges.
The GUSS electric sprayers feature the Smart Apply weed detection system that measures chlorophyll in the various plants it encounters, identifying weeds embedded among the crops, and only sprays where weeds are detected. The company claims its weed detecting tech significantly reduces the amount of chemicals being sprayed onto farmers’ crops, resulting in “up to 90% savings” in sprayed material.
John Deere’s deep pockets will support GUSS as it continues to expand its global reach, and help the group to accelerate Smart Apply’s innovation and integration with other John Deere precision agriculture technologies.
“Joining John Deere enables us to tap into their unmatched innovative capabilities in precision agriculture technologies to bring our solutions to more growers around the world,” says Gary Thompson, GUSS’ COO. “Our team is passionate about helping high-value crop growers increase their efficiency and productivity in their operations, and together with John Deere, we will have the ability to have an even greater impact.”
GUSS-brand autonomous sprayers will be sold and serviced exclusivelythrough John Deere dealers, and the GUSS business will retain its name, branding, employees, and independent manufacturing facility in Kingsburg, California.
More than 250 GUSS machines have been deployed globally, having sprayed more than 2.6 million acres over 500,000 autonomous hours of operation.
Electrek’s Take
Population growth, while slowing, is still very much a thing – and fewer and fewer people seem to be willing to do the work of growing the food that more and more people need to eat and live. This autonomous tech multiplies the efforts of the farmers that do show up for work every day, and the fact that it’s more sustainable from both a fuel perspective and a toxic chemical perspective makes GUSS a winner.
If you’re considering going solar, it’s always a good idea to get quotes from a few installers. To make sure you find a trusted, reliable solar installer near you that offers competitive pricing, check out EnergySage, a free service that makes it easy for you to go solar. It has hundreds of pre-vetted solar installers competing for your business, ensuring you get high-quality solutions and save 20-30% compared to going it alone. Plus, it’s free to use, and you won’t get sales calls until you select an installer and share your phone number with them.
Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.
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