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Tesla disclosed that it is planning to return to growth in vehicle deliveries next year with an extra ~500,000 electric cars.

Here’s how it plans to do it.

For years, Tesla has been guiding a roughly 50% growth rate in EV deliveries leading to 20 million cars per year in 2030.

That growth crashed this year, and Tesla is now expected to be roughly flat in terms of car deliveries in 2024 compared to last year.

Interestingly, the pause in growth has encouraged Tesla to share some more precise growth guidance for the first time in a while.

Tesla has shared that it plans to grow deliveries between 20 and 30% in 2025.

If Tesla can deliver a record number of 515,000 vehicles in Q4, as guided, it will deliver about 1,850,000 in 2024.

It means that Tesla expects to deliver between 2.2 and 2.4 million electric vehicles in 2025.

Tesla has grown at a 30% rate in the past, but it has never done it when it was producing vehicles at such a high rate.

It’s going to be a difficult task, but Tesla has a plan to make it happen.

After a full year of production in 2024, Cybertruck is expected to contribute more in 2025.

Tesla currently lists a production capacity about 125,000 units. That’s likely more than twice as many Cybertrucks as Tesla is expected to deliver this year.

It remains to be seen if Tesla can find the demand for it, but the Cybertruck’s production ramp should contribute to Tesla’s growth in 2025 – although it will be far from enough to reach the goal.

The real contributors are expected to be two new vehicles that Tesla is planning to launch in the first half of 2025.

Earlier this year, we reported that Elon Musk had canceled plans for new, cheaper Tesla vehicles built on the new ‘unboxed’ platform, often referred to as “the $25,000 Tesla.”

He has instead pushed for two new vehicle programs that incorporate some of the features of the new platform, but they are still primarily based on the Model 3/Y platform – so much so that they will be built on the same production lines.

These currently unnamed new vehicles are expected to be cheaper than Model 3/Y, which currently start at $43,000 before incentives – likely closer to $30.000-$35,000.

Those vehicles are expected to contribute more to Tesla’s growth, but since they will only launch in the first half of 2025, the contribution will be somewhat limited in 2025 as Tesla ramps up production.

When discussing the growth guidance, Musk mentioned the “lower-cost vehicles” as contributing to the growth, but he also said that “the advent of autonomy” would contribute:

We can’t overcome massive force majeure events, but I think with our lower-cost vehicles with the advent of autonomy, something like a 20% to 30% growth next year is my best guess. 

It sounds like he means that the improvements in Tesla’s Full Self-Driving will help Tesla sell more vehicles.

We previously reported on Musk explaining Tesla’s plan to roll out its unsupervised self-driving next year.

Electrek’s Take

I have already extensively shared my doubts about Tesla’s capacity to release unsupervised self-driving this year, so I don’t think it’s worth going too much into.

FSD will likely improve next year and it could convince some people to buy Tesla vehicles, but I doubt it will be a significant factor.

The new cheaper models are where the real opportunity is at, but like I said, it will depend on the production ramp.

I think it’s also important to think about cannibalization.

Many people think that because the new vehicles will be produced on the same production lines as Model 3 and Model Y they will look very similar, but that’s not necessarily the case. Tesla produces Model S and X on the same line, and they are fairly different.

But even if they are fairly different, they will likely steal some sales from Tesla’s lower-end vehicles.

I think Tesla can achieve that growth next year, but it won’t be easy.

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Tesla police cruiser, Trump voters love solar, and at least the mines will be nice

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Tesla police cruiser, Trump voters love solar, and at least the mines will be nice

On today’s episode of Quick Charge, I, for one, welcome our new insect overlords. I’d like to remind them that, as a trusted media personality, I can be helpful in rounding up others to toil in their underground sugar caves cobalt mines.

We’ve also got the world’s quickest police pursuit vehicle, an Amnesty International report highlighting Tesla and Mercedes’ efforts to improve worker conditions in the Congo, and an exploration of Trump voters’ love for solar power.

Today’s episode is sponsored by BLUETTI, a leading provider of portable power stations, solar generators, and energy storage systems. For a limited time, save up to 50% during BLUETTI’s exclusive Black Friday pre-sale, now through November 11. Learn more by clicking here.

Prefer listening to your podcasts? Audio-only versions of Quick Charge are now available on Apple PodcastsSpotifyTuneIn, and our RSS feed for Overcast and other podcast players.

New episodes of Quick Charge are recorded, usually, Monday through Thursday (and sometimes Sunday). We’ll be posting bonus audio content from time to time as well, so be sure to follow and subscribe so you don’t miss a minute of Electrek’s high-voltage daily news!

Got news? Let us know!
Drop us a line at tips@electrek.co. You can also rate us on Apple Podcasts and Spotify, or recommend us in Overcast to help more people discover the show!

Read more: Cybertruck dually, overland Kia concepts, and electric Mopars at SEMA.

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Trump won – what now for US clean energy?

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Trump won – what now for US clean energy?

Donald Trump will push fossil fuels and undo renewable energy policies, but it ultimately won’t stop clean energy’s momentum.

Trump has always pushed for more oil drilling and fewer regulations, left the Paris Agreement in his first term as president, says he hates “windmills,” promised to scrap offshore wind on “day one” if he won the 2024 election, and calls climate change a “scam.” And now that he’s won, this is a direct threat to the US’s pledge to reach net zero by 2050. After all, federal policy directly impacts the pace of renewable energy growth, especially when it comes to incentives and research funding.

The Biden administration’s groundbreaking Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which has spurred a clean energy boom, will be challenged under Trump. Because Republican states have received 80% of the IRA’s money with which they’ve built factories and created thousands of jobs, a complete IRA repeal is unlikely. What’s more probable is that the Republicans phase out tax credits earlier than planned or cap overall funding.

Federal financial support for innovative technologies and projects could also take a hit. Brendan Bell, COO of Aligned Climate Capital, who formerly led the US Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office, told Electrek:

My partner Peter and I led the DOE Loan Program Office under President Obama. We supported the first utility-scale solar and storage projects, as well as early EV investments – including the first loan to Tesla.

Today, these technologies are commercialized and are propelling the clean energy transition. None of it would have been possible if these programs had been cut off 10 years ago.

Put simply, Trump can’t turn back the tide of clean energy – but he could delay tomorrow’s solutions and the birth of new industries.

BloombergNEF’s “2H 2024 US Clean Energy Market Outlook,” released at the end of October, examined the worst-case scenario, where control of both the Senate and the House leads to a full repeal of the IRA tax credits:

The wind, solar, and energy storage sectors jointly see a 17% drop in total new capacity additions over 2025-2035, with 927 gigawatts (GW) of cumulative build compared to 1,118GW in BNEF’s base case forecast. Wind sees the greatest fall in activity in this scenario with a 35% drop, followed by energy storage at 15% and solar at 13% relative to BNEF’s base case.

That’s a blow we can’t afford at a time when we need to reduce emissions by 50% from 2005 levels by 2030 to avoid climate disasters becoming even worse than they already are.

But all is not lost. The clean energy market isn’t solely driven by federal policy. Over the last decade, solar, wind, and EVs have become more cost-competitive and popular. State policies play a huge role too, and many states are committed to their own clean energy goals regardless of who sits in the White House. States like California, New York, and Washington have ambitious targets to combat climate change, and deep red Texas is No. 1 in the US for both solar and wind.

Corporations are also key players. Companies like Amazon, Google, and Walmart have committed to going 100% renewable, and they’re not about to reverse course. This demand keeps the market for renewables strong. Plus, there’s significant public support for clean energy jobs, and renewables create more employment opportunities than fossil fuels in many regions of the country.

JD Dillon, chief marketing officer of California-based solar tech manufacturer Tigo Energy (Nasdaq: TYGO), said to Electrek, “The march toward renewable clean energy is both inevitable and the right thing to do. In a perfect world, we would eliminate partisanship from the renewable energy conversation because everyone benefits from a cleaner environment and affordable energy. Unfortunately, none of us live in said perfect world.”

The US clean energy sector may slow down, but it’s hard to stop a train that has already left the station. What consequences this slower-moving train will have for the US and the world remains to be seen.

Read more: Trump says he’ll end the EV mandate. The only problem: there isn’t one.


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Your personalized solar quotes are easy to compare online and you’ll get access to unbiased Energy Advisors to help you every step of the way. Get started here.

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CATL pushes forward with all-solid-state EV batteries

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CATL pushes forward with all-solid-state EV batteries

The world’s largest EV battery maker is advancing a new type of battery, promising higher energy density. According to a new local report, CATL is investing heavily while ramping up its workforce to bring all-solid-state EV batteries to market.

With trial production reportedly kicking off, we could see CATL launch all-solid-state EV batteries sooner than expected.

According to a new local report from LatePost (via CnEVPost), CATL has entered the trial production phase of 20 Ah samples. The news comes after the EV battery giant added over 1,000 workers to its R&D team this year.

The report claimed that CATL is now focused on the final Sulfide phase and has already commenced trial production of 20 Ah samples.

The company’s solution has an energy density of up to 500 Wh/kg for lithium ternary batteries, 40% more than current batteries. However, the report said charging speed and cycle life are not quite where they need to be.

At 20 Ah, the battery solution is finalized and ready for its next stage, production tech exploration.

CATL-all-solid-state-EV-batteries
CATL’s new EV experience center (Source: CATL)

CATL is advancing all-solid-state EV batteries

The report says after that it’s mainly manufacturing hurdles, that can be overcome with a bigger workforce.

In April, CATL’s chief scientist, Wu Kai, announced that the company had developed a verification platform for 10 Ah all-solid-state EV battery cells. Wu also said CATL aimed to produce all-solid-state EV batteries in small volumes in 2027, the first time the news was made public.

CATL-solid-state-EV-batteries
CATL launches Shenxing Plus EV battery (Source: CATL)

In September, the company’s chairman, Robin Zeng, said CATL’s research into the new battery tech was “second to none.”

Several companies, including Toyota, Mercedes-Benz, Stellantis, and others, are betting on solid-state EV batteries as the future.

CATL-Super-hybrid-battery
CATL launches new Freevoy Super Hybrid Battery (Source: CATL)

According to data from CnEVPost, CATL is dominating the global EV battery market with a 36.7% share through September 2024.

China’s BYD is second with a 16.4% share of the market. BYD is also planning to launch solid-state batteries. At the September 2024 World New Energy Congress, BYD’s head scientist and engineer, Lian Yubo, said solid-state EV batteries could be widely used in five years.

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