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Tesla disclosed that it is planning to return to growth in vehicle deliveries next year with an extra ~500,000 electric cars.

Here’s how it plans to do it.

For years, Tesla has been guiding a roughly 50% growth rate in EV deliveries leading to 20 million cars per year in 2030.

That growth crashed this year, and Tesla is now expected to be roughly flat in terms of car deliveries in 2024 compared to last year.

Interestingly, the pause in growth has encouraged Tesla to share some more precise growth guidance for the first time in a while.

Tesla has shared that it plans to grow deliveries between 20 and 30% in 2025.

If Tesla can deliver a record number of 515,000 vehicles in Q4, as guided, it will deliver about 1,850,000 in 2024.

It means that Tesla expects to deliver between 2.2 and 2.4 million electric vehicles in 2025.

Tesla has grown at a 30% rate in the past, but it has never done it when it was producing vehicles at such a high rate.

It’s going to be a difficult task, but Tesla has a plan to make it happen.

After a full year of production in 2024, Cybertruck is expected to contribute more in 2025.

Tesla currently lists a production capacity about 125,000 units. That’s likely more than twice as many Cybertrucks as Tesla is expected to deliver this year.

It remains to be seen if Tesla can find the demand for it, but the Cybertruck’s production ramp should contribute to Tesla’s growth in 2025 – although it will be far from enough to reach the goal.

The real contributors are expected to be two new vehicles that Tesla is planning to launch in the first half of 2025.

Earlier this year, we reported that Elon Musk had canceled plans for new, cheaper Tesla vehicles built on the new ‘unboxed’ platform, often referred to as “the $25,000 Tesla.”

He has instead pushed for two new vehicle programs that incorporate some of the features of the new platform, but they are still primarily based on the Model 3/Y platform – so much so that they will be built on the same production lines.

These currently unnamed new vehicles are expected to be cheaper than Model 3/Y, which currently start at $43,000 before incentives – likely closer to $30.000-$35,000.

Those vehicles are expected to contribute more to Tesla’s growth, but since they will only launch in the first half of 2025, the contribution will be somewhat limited in 2025 as Tesla ramps up production.

When discussing the growth guidance, Musk mentioned the “lower-cost vehicles” as contributing to the growth, but he also said that “the advent of autonomy” would contribute:

We can’t overcome massive force majeure events, but I think with our lower-cost vehicles with the advent of autonomy, something like a 20% to 30% growth next year is my best guess. 

It sounds like he means that the improvements in Tesla’s Full Self-Driving will help Tesla sell more vehicles.

We previously reported on Musk explaining Tesla’s plan to roll out its unsupervised self-driving next year.

Electrek’s Take

I have already extensively shared my doubts about Tesla’s capacity to release unsupervised self-driving this year, so I don’t think it’s worth going too much into.

FSD will likely improve next year and it could convince some people to buy Tesla vehicles, but I doubt it will be a significant factor.

The new cheaper models are where the real opportunity is at, but like I said, it will depend on the production ramp.

I think it’s also important to think about cannibalization.

Many people think that because the new vehicles will be produced on the same production lines as Model 3 and Model Y they will look very similar, but that’s not necessarily the case. Tesla produces Model S and X on the same line, and they are fairly different.

But even if they are fairly different, they will likely steal some sales from Tesla’s lower-end vehicles.

I think Tesla can achieve that growth next year, but it won’t be easy.

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The new Hyundai IONIQ 6 has some seriously impressive range, more than the Kia EV4

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The new Hyundai IONIQ 6 has some seriously impressive range, more than the Kia EV4

Hyundai’s electric fastback is due for some major upgrades that could finally make it the Tesla Model 3 challenger it was designed to be. The new Hyundai IONIQ 6 is better than ever, featuring a stylish new look both inside and out, an NACS port for charging at Tesla Superchargers, and even more driving range than expected.

The new Hyundai IONIQ 6 is a long-range, stylish EV

It’s been just about three years since Hyundai unveiled the IONIQ 6 for the first time at the 2022 Busan International Motor Show.

Hyundai’s “electrified streamliner” arrived as what was expected to be a genuine rival to the Tesla Model 3, boasting over 350 miles of driving range, fast charging in under 20 minutes, and an affordable price tag.

Despite this, the electric sedan has failed to live up to its hype. In the US, IONIQ 6 sales fell 6% last year, with only 12,264 units sold. According to Cox Automotive, Tesla sold 189,903 Model 3s in the US last year, a decrease from 2023, partly due to the launch of the refreshed model.

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With the upgraded IONIQ due out later this year, Hyundai’s EV might finally match the Model 3 as another long-range, fast-charging, affordable electric sedan.

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The new Hyundai IONIQ 6 (Source: Hyundai Motor)

The new Hyundai IONIQ 6 has just become Korea’s longest-range electric sedan. It was officially certified by the Ministry of Environment with a range of up to 568 km (353 miles), surpassing the Kia EV4 at 549 km (341 miles).

On the WLTP scale, that could translate to nearly 700 km (430 miles) range. The current IONIQ 6 is rated with a WLTP range of up to 614 km (382 miles).

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The new Hyundai IONIQ 6 N-Line (Source: Hyundai Motor)

For those in the US, the 2025 Hyundai IONIQ 6 already provides an EPA-estimated range of up to 342 miles. The new model is expected to achieve a range of over 350 miles.

The new IONIQ 6 features an upgraded 84 kWh battery, similar to the 2025 IONIQ 5, providing increased driving range. Hyundai’s new IONIQ 5 is now rated with an EPA-estimated driving range of 318 miles, up from 303 miles in the 2024 model.

Like the IONIQ 5 refresh, the new IONIQ 6 is expected to arrive with a built-in NACS port, allowing access to Tesla Superchargers.

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Hyundai teases the new IONIQ 6 N (Source: Hyundai)

Hyundai unveiled the new IONIQ 6 design at the Seoul Mobility Show in April, saying it “enhanced every line and detail to make the IONIQ 6 simpler and more progressive.” And last week, Hyundai teased a sporty “N” line mode coming soon. We got a sneak peek of it in public a few days later after it was spotted driving in Korea. You can tell, it’s already shaping up to be a significant upgrade.

As for prices and final specs, we’ll have to wait until closer to launch later this year. Check back soon for more info. We’ll keep you updated with the latest.

Will Hyundai’s electric sedan finally compete with the Model 3? Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.

Source: Yucca Post Korea

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Markets are shrugging off the Israel-Iran conflict. Some strategists warn of complacency

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Markets are shrugging off the Israel-Iran conflict. Some strategists warn of complacency

Fire and smoke rise into the sky after an Israeli attack on the Shahran oil depot on June 15, 2025 in Tehran, Iran.

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Global investors may be underpricing the impact of a conflict between Israel and Iran, market watchers warned on Monday, as stocks rallied despite escalating warfare in the Middle East.

The two regional powers continued trading fire on Monday, marking the fourth consecutive day of fighting since Israel launched airstrikes against Iran last week.

Despite the continued fighting — with hundreds reported dead — global stock markets sustained a positive momentum on Monday, seemingly shrugging off broader concerns about the conflict.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, warned on Monday that there was a risk markets were underpricing “the risk of a major conflagration in the Middle East,” particularly when it comes to the energy market.

European shares opened broadly higher on Monday, with Asia-Pacific stocks and U.S. stock futures also trading in the green. Even Middle Eastern indexes saw gains on Monday, with the Tel Aviv 35 index last seen trading 1% higher after falling 1.5% last week.

“This is partly because there are so many moving parts and geopolitical considerations, and partly because the potential outcomes are so unthinkable,” Mould said. “In a worst case, oil and share prices would be the least of our worries.”

In a Monday morning note, David Roche, a strategist at Quantum Strategy, warned that the conflict between Israel and Iran “will last longer than the Israeli lightning-strikes that the market is used to.”

Torbjorn Soltvedtp, principal Middle East analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, agreed, saying an escalation remained of “huge concern.”

“What we have now is very different, and what we’re seeing is effectively a war and an open-ended one,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Europe.”

“And of course, that is something that has huge implications, not just for the region, but also for energy markets and how they interpret what is happening. You know, minute by minute and day by day.”

Energy markets have moved the most on news of the attacks, as the Israel-Iran conflict stoked supply concerns.

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While Friday marked the biggest single-day gain for crude since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, however, global benchmark Brent crude futures — last seen at $73.75 a barrel — were still far below the prices seen in the aftermath of Moscow’s incursion into Ukrainian territory.

“A lull is the most likely outcome before later escalation when Iran rejects US Trump’s overtures,” Roche said. “The market is likely to mistake the lull for lasting peace. I would use the lull to buy into energy assets as a safe haven.”

‘Very modest’ market reaction

Some market watchers are taking a somewhat less pessimistic view, however.

In a note on Monday, Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid noted that while both Iran and Israel had traded retaliatory blows, they had so far avoided “the most extreme escalatory steps.”

“As geopolitical shocks are becoming more frequent it seems it’s now at least a yearly occurrence that we refer to our equity strategists’ work on the impact of such shocks and how long it takes for the market to recover from them,” he said.

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“The typical pattern is for the S&P 500 to pull back about -6% in 3 weeks after the shock but then rally all the way back in another 3,” Reid said. “[Our strategists] believe this incident will likely be milder than this unless we get notable escalation as they highlight that equity positioning is already underweight … and a -6% selloff would need it to fall all the way to the bottom of its usual range.”

Philippe Gijsels, chief strategy officer at BNP Paribas Fortis, told CNBC on Monday that he feels the market is correct in not pricing a huge escalation, such as the U.S. being drawn into the fray, or a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

America will enter a war in the Middle East if a single U.S. base is hit, analyst warns

The Strait of Hormuz, nestled between Iran and Oman, is a vital oil transit route through which millions of barrels of oil are transported every day.

“Still, the market reaction has been very modest, so there is room for disappointment if things were to escalate,” Gijsels conceded on Monday.

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Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

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Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

Tesla’s upcoming Robotaxi launch in Austin, Texas, is increasingly looking like a game of smoke and mirrors, and a dangerous one at that.

CEO Elon Musk claims Tesla is being “paranoid with safety”, but it is taking risks for the purpose of optics.

It’s all about optics

Musk has been wrong about self-driving for years. His track record is marked by missed deadlines and broken promises.

He said:

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“Our goal is, and I feel pretty good about this goal, that we’ll be able to do a demonstration drive of full autonomy all the way from LA to New York, from home in LA to let’s say dropping you off in Times Square in New York, and then having the car go park itself, by the end of next year. Without the need for a single touch, including the charger.”

That was in 2016, and therefore, he claimed it would happen by the end of 2017. Today, in 2025, Tesla is still not capable of doing that.

Musk has claimed that Tesla would achieve unsupervised self-driving every year for the last decade. It has become a running gag, with many YouTube videos featuring his predictions and a Wikipedia page tracking his missed deadlines.

Famously, the predictions are about Tesla achieving self-driving “by the end of the year” or “next year.”

This time, Musk has set a clear deadline of “June” for Tesla to launch its robotaxi service.

With Waymo pulling ahead in the autonomous driving race, now operating in four cities, providing over 200,000 paid rides per week, and soon expanding with 2,000 more vehicles, Musk needs a win to maintain the illusion he has been pushing for a while: that Tesla is the leader in autonomous driving.

He recently claimed about Tesla’s self-driving technology:

No one is even close. There’s really not a close second. We felt like it was a bit of an iPhone moment — you either get it or you don’t, and there’s a massive gap.

This is becoming increasingly difficult to claim amid Waymo’s expansion. Still, Musk believes that the robotaxi launch in Austin will help maintain the illusion, even though Waymo has already been operating like Tesla’s plans in Austin for years in other cities and for months in Austin itself.

Moving of the Goal Post

We have often described what Tesla is doing in Austin with its planned “robotaxi” launch as a moving of the goalpost.

For years, Tesla has promised unsupervised self-driving in all its vehicles built since 2016. Musk explicitly said that customers who bought Tesla’s Full Self-Driving package would be able to “go to sleep” at the wheel of their vehicles and wake up in another city.

Now, Musk is claiming that Tesla has “solved” self-driving with its “robotaxi” launch, but it is vastly different from prior promises.

Tesla plans to operate its own small internal fleet of vehicles with dedicated software optimized for a geo-fenced area of Austin and supported by “plenty of teleoperation.” This is a night-and-day difference compared to deploying unsupervised self-driving in customer vehicles, as promised since 2016.

Musk himself is on record saying, “If you need a geofence area, you don’t have real self-driving.”

Now, Musk is on record saying that Tesla will only launch the service in a limited area in Austin and even avoid certain intersections that Tesla is not sure it can handle:

We will geo‑fence it. It’s not going to take intersections unless we are highly confident it’s going to do well with that intersection. Or it will just take a route around that intersection.

In addition to geofencing, Tesla is also utilizing teleoperation to control vehicles with human operators remotely.

We reported last year when Tesla started building a “teleoperation team.”

Despite Tesla originally planning to launch the robotaxi service on June 12, and now “tentatively” on June 22, the automaker posted a new job listing days ago for engineers to help build a low-latency teleoperation system to operate its “self-driving” cars and robots.

The use of geofencing and teleoperation results in Tesla having the same limitations as Waymo, which Musk claimed means it’s “not real self-driving and not scalable to the customer fleet as promised by Tesla for years.

‘Paranoid’ about Safety

Musk claims that Tesla is being “super paranoid” about safety, but you have to take his word for it.

We have pointed it out before, but it’s worth repeating: Waymo tested its self-driving vehicles in Austin for six months with safety drivers and then for another six months without safety drivers before launching its autonomous ride-hailing service in the city.

As for Tesla, it tested its vehicles with safety drivers throughout Austin for a few months. Then, Musk announced in late May, only weeks before the planned launch, that it had started testing without safety drivers.

Despite many people being on the lookout for these driverless Tesla Robotaxis, they were only spotted for the first time last week.

Since then, only two confirmed Tesla vehicles without drivers have been spotted testing.

Furthermore, several of those vehicles were spotted with Tesla employees in the front passenger seat. While Musk claims that there are “no safety driver”, these “passengers” pay attention at all times and have access to a kill switch to stop the vehicle.

They virtually operate like “safety drivers”, but they are on the passenger seat rather than the driver’s seat.

Tesla is currently still in the “testing” phase based on the listing with the state regulators, which also mentions “no” safety drivers:

To go back to the “optics” for a second, Tesla’s head of self-driving, Ashok Elluswamy, has shared this conveniently cropped image of Tesla’s “robotaxis” being tested in Austin:

The image crops out the passenger seat of the car in front, which would show a Tesla employee, and the driver’s seat of the trailing car, which would show a driver, as spotted in Austin over the last week.

There’s also no way to know precisely at what rates these safety passengers and remote operators are intervening on the self-driving vehicles.

Tesla has never released any intervention or disengagement data about its self-driving and ADAS programs despite using “miles between disengagements” as a metric to track improvements and Musk claiming for years that self-driving is a “solved problem” for Tesla.

As we have previously reported, the best available data comes from a crowdsourced effort. Musk has previously shared and misrepresented the dataset in a positive light.

Currently, the data for the combined two most recent updates (v13.2.8-9) on Tesla’s latest hardware (HW4), which is reportedly the same hardware used in Tesla’s “robotaxis” in Austin, currently sits at 444 miles between critical disengagements:

That would imply a high risk of an accident every 444 miles without a driver paying attention and ready to take control at all times.

Tesla is also currently actively fighting in court against organizations trying to access its self-driving crash data.

There are currently efforts to raise concerns about Tesla’s “robotaxi” deployment in Austin.

The Dawn Project attempted to convey the potential danger of Tesla’s upcoming robotaxi fleet by demonstrating how Tesla vehicles fail to stop for school buses with their stop signs activated and can potentially run over children on the latest public Supervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) v13.2.9:

Musk has repeatedly highlighted that the vehicles used for the robotaxi service in Austin are the same that it currently delivers to customers, like this one used in this test.

However, they use a new, custom software optimized for Austin, with supposedly more parameters, allowing for greater performance. Still, there is no way to verify this, as Tesla has not released any data.

Electrek’s Take

I can’t lie. I’m getting extremely concerned about this. I don’t think that we can trust Musk or Tesla in their current state to launch this safely.

As I previously stated, I think Tesla’s FSD would be an incredible product if it were sold as a regular ADAS system, rather than something called “Full Self-Driving,” with the promise that it would eventually become unsupervised.

Tesla wouldn’t face a significant liability for not being able to fulfill its promises to customers, as it has already confirmed for HW3 owners. Additionally, safety would be improved, as drivers wouldn’t become so complacent with the technology.

Speaking of those failed promises, they are also what’s driving Tesla to push for this launch in Austin.

As Waymo’s former long-time CEO John Krafcik said about Tesla’s effort: There are many ways to fake a robotaxi service.

Musk badly needs a win with self-driving, and he saw an opportunity to get one by getting his gullible fanbase of Tesla shareholders excited about a glimpse at its long-promised future full of “Tesla robotaxis.”

As he previously stated, he knows full well that the way Tesla is doing this is not more scalable than Waymo even if the hardware cost per vehicle is lower. The hardware cost is negligible compared to teleoperation, development, insurance, and other expenses.

Even with all the smoke and mirrors involved with this project, it’s becoming clear that Tesla is not even ready for it.

Now, the question is whether Musk lets the June deadline slip and takes another ‘L’ on self-driving, or if he pushes for Tesla to launch the potentially dangerous service with lots of limitations.

With the federal government in complete shambles and the Texas government being too close to Musk and Tesla, I wouldn’t count on the regulators to act here. Although they probably should.

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