Tesla plans to deliver an extra ~500,000 electric cars next year, here’s how
Tesla disclosed that it is planning to return to growth in vehicle deliveries next year with an extra ~500,000 electric cars.
Here’s how it plans to do it.
For years, Tesla has been guiding a roughly 50% growth rate in EV deliveries leading to 20 million cars per year in 2030.
That growth crashed this year, and Tesla is now expected to be roughly flat in terms of car deliveries in 2024 compared to last year.
Interestingly, the pause in growth has encouraged Tesla to share some more precise growth guidance for the first time in a while.
Tesla has shared that it plans to grow deliveries between 20 and 30% in 2025.
If Tesla can deliver a record number of 515,000 vehicles in Q4, as guided, it will deliver about 1,850,000 in 2024.
It means that Tesla expects to deliver between 2.2 and 2.4 million electric vehicles in 2025.
Tesla has grown at a 30% rate in the past, but it has never done it when it was producing vehicles at such a high rate.
It’s going to be a difficult task, but Tesla has a plan to make it happen.
After a full year of production in 2024, Cybertruck is expected to contribute more in 2025.
Tesla currently lists a production capacity about 125,000 units. That’s likely more than twice as many Cybertrucks as Tesla is expected to deliver this year.
It remains to be seen if Tesla can find the demand for it, but the Cybertruck’s production ramp should contribute to Tesla’s growth in 2025 – although it will be far from enough to reach the goal.
The real contributors are expected to be two new vehicles that Tesla is planning to launch in the first half of 2025.
Earlier this year, we reported that Elon Musk had canceled plans for new, cheaper Tesla vehicles built on the new ‘unboxed’ platform, often referred to as “the $25,000 Tesla.”
He has instead pushed for two new vehicle programs that incorporate some of the features of the new platform, but they are still primarily based on the Model 3/Y platform – so much so that they will be built on the same production lines.
These currently unnamed new vehicles are expected to be cheaper than Model 3/Y, which currently start at $43,000 before incentives – likely closer to $30.000-$35,000.
Those vehicles are expected to contribute more to Tesla’s growth, but since they will only launch in the first half of 2025, the contribution will be somewhat limited in 2025 as Tesla ramps up production.
When discussing the growth guidance, Musk mentioned the “lower-cost vehicles” as contributing to the growth, but he also said that “the advent of autonomy” would contribute:
We can’t overcome massive force majeure events, but I think with our lower-cost vehicles with the advent of autonomy, something like a 20% to 30% growth next year is my best guess.
It sounds like he means that the improvements in Tesla’s Full Self-Driving will help Tesla sell more vehicles.
We previously reported on Musk explaining Tesla’s plan to roll out its unsupervised self-driving next year.
Electrek’s Take
I have already extensively shared my doubts about Tesla’s capacity to release unsupervised self-driving this year, so I don’t think it’s worth going too much into.
FSD will likely improve next year and it could convince some people to buy Tesla vehicles, but I doubt it will be a significant factor.
The new cheaper models are where the real opportunity is at, but like I said, it will depend on the production ramp.
I think it’s also important to think about cannibalization.
Many people think that because the new vehicles will be produced on the same production lines as Model 3 and Model Y they will look very similar, but that’s not necessarily the case. Tesla produces Model S and X on the same line, and they are fairly different.
But even if they are fairly different, they will likely steal some sales from Tesla’s lower-end vehicles.
I think Tesla can achieve that growth next year, but it won’t be easy.
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The first electric Range Rover is expected to hit showrooms in the next few months. With its official debut just around the corner, Range Rover’s first EV was spotted testing in Sweden. Here’s a sneak peek of the luxury electric SUV.
Range Rover’s first EV put through the paces in Sweden
Range Rover is finally gearing up to introduce its first EV later this year. Earlier this year, JLR confirmed that the Range Rover Electric already has 57,000 buyers on the waiting list.
The company claims the new model “redefines” the electric luxury SUV with an “unrivalled driving experience.” To prove it, Range Rover is putting its first EV through the paces in sub-zero conditions in Sweden.
Range Rover’s electric SUV has been through 45,000 miles of testing across frozen lakes and land tracks. The latest round allowed engineers to test their new thermal management system.
The company’s new ThermAssist thermal management system reduces heat energy consumption by up to 40% and is designed to warm the propulsion system or cabin in temperatures as low as ‑10°C (14°F).
Range Rover said it also helps optimize driving range while minimizing the impact of extreme temperatures on charging performance.
Combined with an 800V battery, the first one built in-house by JLR, the company promises the best possible performance, with optimized energy density, range, and charging times. The Range Rover’s first EV will be powered by a 117 kWh battery, consisting of 344 prismatic cells.
Built for both on- and off-road performance, the electric SUV features new additions like single-pedal driving and a switchable twin-chamber air suspension system.
Range Rover tested the single-pedal capabilities on both 28-degree and 17-degree split-mu inclines at its Arctic test facility.
Matt Becker, Vehicle Engineering Director at JLR, explained that the electric SUV maintains the brand’s signature driving experience “by marrying all the essential Range Rover elements with new and advanced technologies.”
Following its second season in Sweden, Range Rover will continue testing prototypes ahead of the official launch later this year.
After its first EV, Range Rover is already preparing another smaller electric SUV, which is expected to be the Sport model. In 2026, the company is expected to release a mid-sized electric SUV, likely the Velar.
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Volvo is launching a nearly $2 billion (SEK 18 billion) restructuring plan to drive growth and mitigate the impact of Trump’s tariffs. With the new EX30 and ES90 EVs rolling out, Volvo is taking drastic action to drive growth.
Volvo launches restructuring plan due to Trump’s tariffs
After its operating income fell by nearly 60% to SEK 1.9 billion in the first quarter, Volvo launched a cost and cash action plan.
The restructuring is worth SEK 18 billion, with most of it being realized in 2026. Volvo’s new strategy includes SEK 3 billion in variable cost actions and SEK 5 billion in indirect spend efficiencies. The additional SEK 10 billion will be added in cash actions to reduce working capital and capital expenditures this year and in 2026.
Volvo Cars CEO Håkan Samuelsson said, “The automotive industry is in the middle of a very difficult period with challenges not seen before.”
With “turbulence in the market,” Samuelsson added that the company needs to “further improve our cash flow generation and lower our costs.”
To do so, Volvo is focusing on three areas: profitability, electrification, and regionalisation. Volvo is already leading the premium segment, with electrified vehicles accounting for 43% of sales in Q1. However, with new EVs launching, Volvo said more will need to be done to overcome the impact of Trump’s tariffs.
Volvo created a new region called Americas, which includes the US, Canada, and Latin America, to streamline its global operations.
In the US, the company is looking to sharpen its product line-up and plans to boost production at its Charleston, South Carolina, plant.
Earlier this month, Volvo started production of the EX30 at its Ghent plant, which will help it ramp up deliveries in the second half of 2025.
Since it will be imported into the US, Volvo is bracing to take a hit from tariffs. Even the EX90, which is made in Charleston, is heavily impacted, as most components still come from Europe.
Volvo also revealed the new ES90 last month, its new electric sedan and second EV built on the Volvo Cars Superset Tech Stack. It’s Volvo’s sixth fully electric vehicle following the EX90, EM90, EX40, EX40, and EX30.
In China, Volvo plans to adapt to the changing market with its first extended-range PHEV model, which will launch later this year.
Volvo said it remains “firm on becoming a fully electric car company.” Despite a weaker overall market, almost a fifth of the vehicles it sold in the first quarter were electric.
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In a warming world with increasingly extreme weather events, homeowners are turning to backup batteries for relief and peace of mind. But the backup only lasts only so long, and there’s a bigger problem at play: aging power grids.
Enter the virtual power plant, managed through a cloud-based system. It’s a fertile market for a number of companies as consumers look for more reliability, especially in areas prone to extreme temperatures and storms.
Base Power, headquartered in Austin, Texas, is a virtual power plant and hardware company that provides battery backup to homeowners. The startup manages the batteries, and virtually controls the power that’s going in and out.
“We install our batteries on our customers’ homes. When the grid is up and running, we use those batteries to support the power grid,” said Base CEO Zach Dell. “When the grid goes out, our customers get those batteries to back up their home. We’re also able to save our customers on the order of 10 to 20% a month on their electricity bills.”
Unlike Tesla and Enphase, Base doesn’t sell home backup batteries. Rather, it rents the batteries to homeowners, providing the hardware, software, installation, operations and electricity. Essentially, it’s a battery-based energy company.
“We own and operate it,” Dell said. “We handle all the maintenance. We take care of the system like it’s ours.”
That control allows Base to manipulate how the battery is used, specifically accessing cheaper power and passing that savings on to the consumer. Base charges the battery from the grid when demand is low, typically during overnight hours. When demand is at its peak — summer evenings and winter mornings — Base sells power, discharging the battery to support the grid.
For an upfront fee of $595 and then about $19 a month, homeowners get access to reliable power, provided by Base. That power is generated by several sources, including wind, solar, natural gas and coal. About half of Base’s customers have solar, according to the company, which lowers their costs even more and allows them to sell that power back to Base.
A company spokesperson said Base compensates customers for the power they sell back, calculated as the real-time wholesale energy price plus an additional 3 cents per kilowatt hour. Buyback rates may vary depending on market conditions and other factors.
Base is now serving one of the nation’s largest homebuilders, Lennar, which is also an investor. Base installs batteries during the construction process in roughly 20 Lennar outage-prone communities in Texas.
Stuart Miller, Chairman and co-CEO of Lennar, said it’s not just about making money.
“It’s, are we going to be able to improve the overall stature of the home building business, as it seeks to address the markets that are stressed and having problems?” he said. “Utilities and electricity is a part of that.”
Base has raised a total of $268 million from investors including Lennar, Thrive Capital, Valor Equity Partners, Lightspeed Venture Partners and Andreesen Horowitz.
Base recently announced its first utility partnership near San Antonio. Dell said the company hopes to soon expand outside of Texas. However, the batteries are made in China, and Dell said he expects to see an impact from tariffs.
— CNBC producer Lisa Rizzolo contributed to this piece.
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