Tesla plans to deliver an extra ~500,000 electric cars next year, here’s how
Tesla disclosed that it is planning to return to growth in vehicle deliveries next year with an extra ~500,000 electric cars.
Here’s how it plans to do it.
For years, Tesla has been guiding a roughly 50% growth rate in EV deliveries leading to 20 million cars per year in 2030.
That growth crashed this year, and Tesla is now expected to be roughly flat in terms of car deliveries in 2024 compared to last year.
Interestingly, the pause in growth has encouraged Tesla to share some more precise growth guidance for the first time in a while.
Tesla has shared that it plans to grow deliveries between 20 and 30% in 2025.
If Tesla can deliver a record number of 515,000 vehicles in Q4, as guided, it will deliver about 1,850,000 in 2024.
It means that Tesla expects to deliver between 2.2 and 2.4 million electric vehicles in 2025.
Tesla has grown at a 30% rate in the past, but it has never done it when it was producing vehicles at such a high rate.
It’s going to be a difficult task, but Tesla has a plan to make it happen.
After a full year of production in 2024, Cybertruck is expected to contribute more in 2025.
Tesla currently lists a production capacity about 125,000 units. That’s likely more than twice as many Cybertrucks as Tesla is expected to deliver this year.
It remains to be seen if Tesla can find the demand for it, but the Cybertruck’s production ramp should contribute to Tesla’s growth in 2025 – although it will be far from enough to reach the goal.
The real contributors are expected to be two new vehicles that Tesla is planning to launch in the first half of 2025.
Earlier this year, we reported that Elon Musk had canceled plans for new, cheaper Tesla vehicles built on the new ‘unboxed’ platform, often referred to as “the $25,000 Tesla.”
He has instead pushed for two new vehicle programs that incorporate some of the features of the new platform, but they are still primarily based on the Model 3/Y platform – so much so that they will be built on the same production lines.
These currently unnamed new vehicles are expected to be cheaper than Model 3/Y, which currently start at $43,000 before incentives – likely closer to $30.000-$35,000.
Those vehicles are expected to contribute more to Tesla’s growth, but since they will only launch in the first half of 2025, the contribution will be somewhat limited in 2025 as Tesla ramps up production.
When discussing the growth guidance, Musk mentioned the “lower-cost vehicles” as contributing to the growth, but he also said that “the advent of autonomy” would contribute:
We can’t overcome massive force majeure events, but I think with our lower-cost vehicles with the advent of autonomy, something like a 20% to 30% growth next year is my best guess.
It sounds like he means that the improvements in Tesla’s Full Self-Driving will help Tesla sell more vehicles.
We previously reported on Musk explaining Tesla’s plan to roll out its unsupervised self-driving next year.
Electrek’s Take
I have already extensively shared my doubts about Tesla’s capacity to release unsupervised self-driving this year, so I don’t think it’s worth going too much into.
FSD will likely improve next year and it could convince some people to buy Tesla vehicles, but I doubt it will be a significant factor.
The new cheaper models are where the real opportunity is at, but like I said, it will depend on the production ramp.
I think it’s also important to think about cannibalization.
Many people think that because the new vehicles will be produced on the same production lines as Model 3 and Model Y they will look very similar, but that’s not necessarily the case. Tesla produces Model S and X on the same line, and they are fairly different.
But even if they are fairly different, they will likely steal some sales from Tesla’s lower-end vehicles.
I think Tesla can achieve that growth next year, but it won’t be easy.
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Leading yard operation 3PL YMX Logistics has announced plans to deploy fully twenty (20) of Orange EV’s fully electric Class 8 terminal trucks at a number of distribution and manufacturing sites across North America.
As the shipping and logistics industries increasingly move to embrace electrification, yard operations have proven to be an almost ideal use case for EVs, enabling companies like Orange EV, which specialize in yard hostlers or terminal tractors, to drive real, impactful change. To that end, companies like YMX are partnering with Orange EV.
“This relationship between YMX and Orange EV is a significant step forward in transforming yard operations across North America,” said Matt Yearling, CEO of YMX Logistics. “Besides the initial benefits of reduction in emissions and carbon footprint, our customers are also seeing improvements in the overall operational efficiency and seeking to expand. Our team members have also been sharing positive feedback about their new equipment and highlighting the positive impact on their health and day-to-day activities.”
This Orange looks good in blue
One of the most interesting aspects of this story – beyond the Orange EV HUSK-e XP’s almost unbelievable 180,000 lb. GCWR spec. – is that this isn’t a story about California’s ports, which mandate EVs. Instead, YMX is truly deploying these trucks throughout the country, with at least four currently in Chicago (and more on the way).
“Our collaboration with YMX Logistics represents a powerful stride in delivering sustainable yard solutions at scale for enterprise customers,” explains Wayne Mathisen, CEO of Orange EV. “With rising demand for electric yard trucks, our joint efforts ensure that more companies can access the environmental, financial, and operational benefits of electrification … this is a win for the planet, the workforce, and the bottom line of these organizations.”
We interviewed Orange EV founder Kurt Neutgens on The Heavy Equipment Podcast a few months back, but if you’re not familiar with these purpose-built trucks, it’s worth a listen.
HEP-isode 26
SOURCE | IMAGES: YMX Logistics.
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On today’s thrilling episode of Quick Charge, we’ve got the all-new Hyundai IONIQ 9 and its “a “rolling living room” pivoting captain’s chairs, Kia gets a go-fast 7 passenger SUV and an updated EV6, while Honda announces plans to start producing solid-state batteries at its new facility in just a few weeks.
We’ve also got big news for American workers – a Minnesota power company is ditching coal for solar while ExxonMobil and LG Chem get to work extracting thousands of tons of lithium out of Tennessee’s soil.
Today’s episode is sponsored by BLUETTI, a leading provider of portable power stations, solar generators, and energy storage systems. For a limited time, save up to 52% during BLUETTI’s exclusive Black Friday sale, now through November 28, and be sure to use promo code BLUETTI5OFF for 5% off all power stations sitewide. Learn more by clicking here.
You can watch the episode, below.
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Read more: Farm-fegnugen? Volkswagen rolls out an electric tractor.
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Arevon Energy has kicked off operations at Vikings Solar-plus-Storage – one of the US’s first utility-scale solar peaker plants.
The $529 million project in Imperial County, California, near Holtville, features 157 megawatts of solar power paired with 150 megawatts/600 megawatt hours of battery storage.
Vikings Solar-plus-Storage is designed to take cheap daytime solar power and store it for use during more expensive peak demand times, like late afternoons and evenings. The battery storage system can quickly respond to changes in demand, helping tackle critical grid needs.
Vikings leverages provisions in the Inflation Reduction Act that support affordable clean energy, strengthen grid resilience, boost US manufacturing, and create good jobs.
The Vikings project has already brought significant benefits to the local area. It employed over 170 people during construction, many local workers, and boosted nearby businesses like restaurants, hotels, and stores. On top of that, Vikings will pay out more than $17 million to local governments over its lifespan.
“Vikings’ advanced design sets the standard for safe and reliable solar-plus-storage configurations,” said Arevon CEO Kevin Smith. “The project incorporates solar panels, trackers, and batteries that showcase the growing strength of US renewable energy manufacturing.”
The project includes Tesla Megapack battery systems made in California, First Solar’s thin-film solar panels, and smart solar trackers from Nextracker. San Diego-based SOLV Energy handled the engineering, procurement, and construction work.
San Diego Community Power (SDCP) will buy the energy from the Vikings project under a long-term deal, helping power nearly 1 million customer accounts. SDCP and Arevon have also signed an agreement for the 200 MW Avocet Energy Storage Project in Carson, California, which will start construction in early 2025.
Vikings is named after the Holtville High School mascot, and Arevon is giving back to the local community by funding scholarships for deserving Holtville High students.
Arevon is a major renewable energy developer across the US and a key player in California, with nearly 2,500 MW in operation and more than 1,250 MW under construction.
Read more: Minnesota’s largest coal plant goes solar: Sherco Solar comes online
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