China tells automakers to pause investment in tariff-supporting countries
China has reportedly already told its major automakers to hold off investments in EU countries that supported Europe’s new EV tariffs, according to Reuters.
While China started a little slow in the EV game, its investments into EV manufacturing have now started to bear fruit, and the country’s manufacturers have rapidly caught up and now passed western automakers, particularly on price.
As a result, both Europe and the US have recently imposed large tariffs on Chinese EVs, fearing that Chinese cars will undercut domestic industry with lower manufacturing costs. Chinese EVs are already quite popular in Europe, though very few sell in the US.
While the EU tariff vote passed handily, the voting patterns among countries mostly reflected fear of retaliatory tariffs. As is often the case with tariffs, a country can’t simply impose a restriction without expecting any pushback.
This is why, for example, Germany voted against the final tariff despite abstaining for the initial vote. German automakers do a lot of high-margin business in China, and worried that China would no longer purchase their autos either because of retaliatory tariffs or consumer animosity towards foreign brands (which is already happening, well before these tariff talks).
And China specifically has been quite effective in the past at responding to tariffs with targeted retaliatory tariffs of its own. Indeed, they’re already investigating EU dairy and wine products as potential tariff targets.
So it’s no surprise that today, on the same day as EU’s new tariffs went into effect, a report from Reuters says that the Chinese government has told automakers to think carefully before investing in Europe, particularly in countries that voted in favor of or abstained from the EU’s tariff imposition.
Several Chinese automakers are already considering building factories in Europe in order to localize production and bypass tariffs, including BYD, Geely and XPeng. This is kind of the intended effect of tariffs – ensuring that foreign automakers will invest in local production and local jobs.
But China wants to ensure that that investment money goes to countries that didn’t vote in favor of tariffs. BYD for example is currently building a plant in Hungary, a country that voted against the tariffs.
Meanwhile, other countries that did vote for the tariffs have attempted to get Chinese firms to invest in building factories there, like France and Italy. But this new directive would make their path towards investment tougher, if Chinese firms follow the government’s guidance.
This is likely not the only action that China will take in response to EU’s tariffs, merely a preliminary one. But it does show China’s willingness to swiftly respond to countries imposition of trade restrictions.
Concurrently, discussions are ongoing between EU and China about a potential minimum pricing deal to avoid tariffs. The hope was for those to conclude before tariffs were imposed, but it seems that they will have to continue.
Electrek’s Take
As I’ve said many times before, tariffs on China are not the answer to winning the EV arms race. I think countries would be much better off incentivizing local production than disincentivizing overseas production, and all the messy secondary effects that come along with the latter.
Further, tariffs can often lead to a sense of complacency for domestic manufacturers, who encourage them so they can have time to ramp up, and then take that time to slow-roll their ramp so that they end up back where they started. We saw this in the 70s with Japan in steel and autos – and the emergency tariffs did not forestall 50 years of Japanese export dominance (they were only kicked dethroned as #1 auto exporter last year – by China).
So despite the entrance of China onto the international automaker stage, most of the last year has been characterized by automakers doing their damnedest to slow down EV adoption. They’re scaling back production plans despite increasing EV demand , they’re begging governments to allow them to pollute more, and they’re generally not indicating that they’ll use the “time” these tariff impositions have given them wisely.
If this continues, then all Europe will get for its tariffs are a delay of the inevitable. They might still get some factories, but those factories will be owned by foreign entities instead of local ones. And this will come along with a lot of pain for whichever industries China decides to target with retaliatory tariffs, and with less competition and more inflation for local consumers as auto prices are buoyed by these tariffs.
I know I keep repeating myself (for more than a decade now…), but the true answer to this would have been to take EVs seriously from the get-go, instead of all the waffling that Western automakers have done that has left them now behind. That should have started long ago, but as the famous (possibly Chinese) proverb says: “the best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago, the second best time is today.”
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On today’s episode of Quick Charge, I, for one, welcome our new insect overlords. I’d like to remind them that, as a trusted media personality, I can be helpful in rounding up others to toil in their underground sugar caves cobalt mines.
We’ve also got the world’s quickest police pursuit vehicle, an Amnesty International report highlighting Tesla and Mercedes’ efforts to improve worker conditions in the Congo, and an exploration of Trump voters’ love for solar power.
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Read more: Cybertruck dually, overland Kia concepts, and electric Mopars at SEMA.
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Donald Trump will push fossil fuels and undo renewable energy policies, but it ultimately won’t stop clean energy’s momentum.
Trump has always pushed for more oil drilling and fewer regulations, left the Paris Agreement in his first term as president, says he hates “windmills,” promised to scrap offshore wind on “day one” if he won the 2024 election, and calls climate change a “scam.” And now that he’s won, this is a direct threat to the US’s pledge to reach net zero by 2050. After all, federal policy directly impacts the pace of renewable energy growth, especially when it comes to incentives and research funding.
The Biden administration’s groundbreaking Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which has spurred a clean energy boom, will be challenged under Trump. Because Republican states have received 80% of the IRA’s money with which they’ve built factories and created thousands of jobs, a complete IRA repeal is unlikely. What’s more probable is that the Republicans phase out tax credits earlier than planned or cap overall funding.
Federal financial support for innovative technologies and projects could also take a hit. Brendan Bell, COO of Aligned Climate Capital, who formerly led the US Department of Energy’s Loan Programs Office, told Electrek:
My partner Peter and I led the DOE Loan Program Office under President Obama. We supported the first utility-scale solar and storage projects, as well as early EV investments – including the first loan to Tesla.
Today, these technologies are commercialized and are propelling the clean energy transition. None of it would have been possible if these programs had been cut off 10 years ago.
Put simply, Trump can’t turn back the tide of clean energy – but he could delay tomorrow’s solutions and the birth of new industries.
BloombergNEF’s “2H 2024 US Clean Energy Market Outlook,” released at the end of October, examined the worst-case scenario, where control of both the Senate and the House leads to a full repeal of the IRA tax credits:
The wind, solar, and energy storage sectors jointly see a 17% drop in total new capacity additions over 2025-2035, with 927 gigawatts (GW) of cumulative build compared to 1,118GW in BNEF’s base case forecast. Wind sees the greatest fall in activity in this scenario with a 35% drop, followed by energy storage at 15% and solar at 13% relative to BNEF’s base case.
That’s a blow we can’t afford at a time when we need to reduce emissions by 50% from 2005 levels by 2030 to avoid climate disasters becoming even worse than they already are.
But all is not lost. The clean energy market isn’t solely driven by federal policy. Over the last decade, solar, wind, and EVs have become more cost-competitive and popular. State policies play a huge role too, and many states are committed to their own clean energy goals regardless of who sits in the White House. States like California, New York, and Washington have ambitious targets to combat climate change, and deep red Texas is No. 1 in the US for both solar and wind.
Corporations are also key players. Companies like Amazon, Google, and Walmart have committed to going 100% renewable, and they’re not about to reverse course. This demand keeps the market for renewables strong. Plus, there’s significant public support for clean energy jobs, and renewables create more employment opportunities than fossil fuels in many regions of the country.
JD Dillon, chief marketing officer of California-based solar tech manufacturer Tigo Energy (Nasdaq: TYGO), said to Electrek, “The march toward renewable clean energy is both inevitable and the right thing to do. In a perfect world, we would eliminate partisanship from the renewable energy conversation because everyone benefits from a cleaner environment and affordable energy. Unfortunately, none of us live in said perfect world.”
The US clean energy sector may slow down, but it’s hard to stop a train that has already left the station. What consequences this slower-moving train will have for the US and the world remains to be seen.
Read more: Trump says he’ll end the EV mandate. The only problem: there isn’t one.
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The world’s largest EV battery maker is advancing a new type of battery, promising higher energy density. According to a new local report, CATL is investing heavily while ramping up its workforce to bring all-solid-state EV batteries to market.
With trial production reportedly kicking off, we could see CATL launch all-solid-state EV batteries sooner than expected.
According to a new local report from LatePost (via CnEVPost), CATL has entered the trial production phase of 20 Ah samples. The news comes after the EV battery giant added over 1,000 workers to its R&D team this year.
The report claimed that CATL is now focused on the final Sulfide phase and has already commenced trial production of 20 Ah samples.
The company’s solution has an energy density of up to 500 Wh/kg for lithium ternary batteries, 40% more than current batteries. However, the report said charging speed and cycle life are not quite where they need to be.
At 20 Ah, the battery solution is finalized and ready for its next stage, production tech exploration.
CATL is advancing all-solid-state EV batteries
The report says after that it’s mainly manufacturing hurdles, that can be overcome with a bigger workforce.
In April, CATL’s chief scientist, Wu Kai, announced that the company had developed a verification platform for 10 Ah all-solid-state EV battery cells. Wu also said CATL aimed to produce all-solid-state EV batteries in small volumes in 2027, the first time the news was made public.
In September, the company’s chairman, Robin Zeng, said CATL’s research into the new battery tech was “second to none.”
Several companies, including Toyota, Mercedes-Benz, Stellantis, and others, are betting on solid-state EV batteries as the future.
According to data from CnEVPost, CATL is dominating the global EV battery market with a 36.7% share through September 2024.
China’s BYD is second with a 16.4% share of the market. BYD is also planning to launch solid-state batteries. At the September 2024 World New Energy Congress, BYD’s head scientist and engineer, Lian Yubo, said solid-state EV batteries could be widely used in five years.
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