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Budgets are all about numbers.

In the coming 24 hours, we’ll be engulfed with all sorts of figures – about the state of the economy, about the size of the deficit, about the fiscal rules the new chancellor is planning to introduce in the coming months.

But in fact most budgets, this one included, can really be boiled down to the difference between two big numbers.

Politics live blog: Budget 2024 latest developments

Total government spending and total government receipts.

Right now the UK government is spending just over £1.2trn a year and bringing in just over £1.1trn in taxes and receipts.

In other words, this country is spending more than it generates in tax receipts.

So it has to borrow the difference.

That borrowing, also known as the deficit, is (as you’ve already probably worked out from the above numbers) around £100bn a year.

And politicians, including the chancellor, spend rather a lot of time fretting about the deficit.

Graph graph

Indeed, the main objective of the various different fiscal rules they’ve imposed on themselves in recent decades has been to narrow the gap between those two big numbers.

Broadly speaking, the easiest way to do this is to cut something few people notice in the short run – government investment.

When he came into office in 2010, George Osborne cut a lot of parts of public spending, but he absolutely slashed the amount the public sector spent on buildings, infrastructure and machinery – capital spending.

Having lifted the total briefly after the pandemic, Jeremy Hunt was planning a similar fall in investment in the coming years.

Rachel Reeves has said repeatedly ahead of the budget that she plans to invest far more in the coming years.

This is a noble goal, given investment tends to benefit future generations, however, it will not be cheap in the short run.

pic pic graph

Indeed, keeping investment spending at current levels will cost roughly £30bn a year by the end of this decade.

So how does the chancellor square that with her fiscal rules?

Well, one part of the answer is that she’s planning to increase the revenues coming into the Exchequer, reportedly via higher national insurance charges for insurers.

But the other part of the answer is that she’s changing her fiscal rules as well.

Budget 2024: Rachel Reeves vs the fiscal rules

The long and the short of it is that Ms Reeves looks likely to choose a set of fiscal rules that ignore investment spending.

Both her updated debt rule and her current budget rule essentially omit capital spending – although they include debt interest costs, so she can’t just borrow willy-nilly.

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That might sound like fiscal jiggery-pokery, and some in the market fret that investors will soon take fright as a result.

Indeed, some suggest they already are, and point to the fact the UK’s cost of government borrowing – as measured by the benchmark 10-year bond yield – has risen from under 4% to nearly 4.3% in the past month alone.

However, this is a slight misreading of this market, which is as affected by global economic factors and central bank action as much as by UK budgetary policy.

Indeed, compare the recent changes in the UK’s borrowing rates with those in Germany and the US and British government bond yields are close to where they usually trade in the run up to a budget.

And they are far, far below where they were in the run-up to Liz Truss’s mini-budget.

graph

Even so, there are bound to be a few unexpected surprises and some relevant new data points in this fiscal event.

It is a budget after all.

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British tourist who fell ill from methanol poisoning dies after ‘free shots’ giveaway in Laos resort

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British tourist who fell ill from methanol poisoning dies after 'free shots' giveaway in Laos resort

A British tourist being treated after a suspected mass methanol poisoning in Laos has died, according to UK officials.

Simone White, 28, from Orpington, Kent, fell ill after reportedly drinking “free shots” from a local bar in Vang Vieng – a resort popular with backpackers.

Four people had already died following the suspected poisonings – an Australian named Bianca Jones, 19, from Melbourne, as well as two Danish women in their 20s and a 56-year-old US citizen.

They are believed to have consumed drinks tainted with methanol, which is sometimes added to mixed drinks as a cheaper alternative to alcohol, but can cause severe poisoning or death.

“We are supporting the family of a British woman who has died in Laos, and we are in contact with the local authorities,” the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) said in a statement.

The FCDO said it was also providing consular assistance to other British nationals hospitalised in the incident, as well as their families.

Bianca Jones
Image:
Bianca Jones, a 19-year-old from Australia, also died

Explained:
What is methanol, how does it end up in alcoholic drinks, and how can you avoid it?

Ms White was an associate lawyer specialising in intellectual property and technology and worked at the London office of the American law firm Squire Patton Boggs.

Her work involved general commercial matters, and contentious and non-contentious intellectual property law issues, according to the firm’s website.

Bethany Clarke, a friend of Ms White and a healthcare worker, also from Orpington, said a group of six people had been taken to hospital after drinking from the same bar.

She posted on a Laos Backpacking Facebook group to warn other travellers after the group fell ill.

“Urgent – please avoid all local spirits. Our group stayed in Vang Vieng and we drank free shots offered by one of the bars,” she wrote.

“Just avoid them as so not worth it. Six of us who drank from the same place are in hospital currently with methanol poisoning.”

‘Every parent’s very worst fear’

Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed to his country’s parliament that 19-year-old Bianca Jones had died after being evacuated to a Thai hospital from Vang Vieng.

Thai authorities confirmed that Jones had died of “brain swelling due to high levels of methanol found in her system”.

Her friend Holly Bowles, also 19, remains in hospital in neighbouring Thailand, Mr Albanese said.

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Laos methanol poisonings – what we know

Australian officials said “several foreign nationals” had also been victims of methanol poisoning

“This is every parent’s very worst fear and a nightmare that no one should have to endure,” Mr Albanese said.

“We also take this moment to say that we’re thinking of Bianca’s friend Holly Bowles who is fighting for her life.”

‘Her incredible spirit touched so many lives’

In a statement to the Melbourne Herald Sun newspaper, Ms Jones’ family paid tribute to her.

“She was surrounded by love, and we are comforted by the knowledge that her incredible spirit touched so many lives during her time with us,” the family wrote.

“We want to express our deepest gratitude for the overwhelming support, love, and prayers we’ve received from across Australia.”

The US State Department confirmed that an American had also died in Vang Vieng, and Denmark’s Foreign Ministry said two of its citizens had also died in “the incident in Laos”.

Neither would comment directly on a link to methanol poisoning.

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Storm Bert: Second named storm of season to bring snow, rain and 70mph winds to UK at weekend

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Storm Bert: Second named storm of season to bring snow, rain and 70mph winds to UK at weekend

The second named storm of the season will bring snow, rain and strong winds to parts of the UK this weekend, according to the Met Office.

Hundreds of schools are closed as the storm, named Bert, sweeps in, bringing freezing temperatures and snow over the weekend.

Wind gusts of up to 70mph are expected in some areas as well as the potential of flooding and travel disruption.

Heavy snowfall could bring further disruption to parts of the country while heavy rain is also likely over the weekend, the Met Office added.

Snowy conditions, in the village of Goathland, North York Moors National Park.
Pic: PA
Image:
Snowy conditions, in the village of Goathland, North York Moors National Park.
Pic: PA

Parts of southwest England including Plymouth and Exeter are under a yellow warning for snow until 3pm today, with 5-10cm predicted in higher parts of Dartmoor.

Wintry showers will continue in different parts of the UK throughout Thursday and Friday, amid warnings of snow and ice for much of Scotland, northern England and parts of western and eastern England and Wales between midday today and 10am tomorrow.

How Storm Bert is set to impact the UK this weekend. Pic: Met Office
Image:
How Storm Bert is set to impact the UK this weekend. Pic: Met Office

Met Office chief meteorologist Matthew Lehnert said: “A northerly airflow will continue to feed snow showers into Scotland over the next few days, with this reaching lower levels at times and bringing the potential for some travel disruption.

More on Uk Weather

“Overnight temperatures will drop below zero fairly widely over the next few days, which has resulted in some ice warnings, with further warnings likely through this week.”

More than 114 schools are shut in the Highland Council area today due to snow, including Inverness Royal Academy where pupils were told their prelim exams planned for the day would be rescheduled.

Almost 40 schools in Aberdeenshire are also shut while many others had delayed openings, and in Moray around 12 were closed and others opened late.

It comes after more than 100 schools or nurseries were closed in Scotland yesterday because of the weather.

Commuters dressed in warm clothes walk over Westminster Bridge.
Pic: Reuters
Image:
Commuters dressed in warm clothes walk over Westminster Bridge.
Pic: Reuters

South of the border, 89 schools were shut in Devon today, 18 in Dorset and 60 in Cornwall, while in Wales around 10 were closed in Conwy, 18 in Denbighshire and two in Wrexham.

As Storm Bert hits the UK, areas where warnings are in place in the south and west are likely to be impacted by heavy rain on Saturday and Sunday.

Between 50-75 mm of rainfall is expected there on the weekend, while Wales and southwest England could see more than 100mm.

There is already a yellow warning for heavy snow on Saturday followed by a “rapid thaw” and rain on Saturday night in northeast and northwest England, the West Midlands, Yorkshire, and much of Scotland.

Met Office Deputy Chief Meteorologist, Dan Holley, said: “Storm Bert marks a shift to much milder air and wintry hazards will gradually diminish through the weekend, but heavy snowfall is expected across parts of northern England and Scotland for a time on Saturday, especially over higher ground, and warnings are in place.”

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Dylan Thomas found guilty of murdering ‘best friend’ on Christmas Eve in Cardiff

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Dylan Thomas found guilty of murdering 'best friend' on Christmas Eve in Cardiff

A man has been found guilty of murdering his “best friend” on Christmas Eve.

A jury of 10 men and two women heard Dylan Thomas, 24, killed William Bush, 23, in a “frenzied attack” in the Llandaff area of Cardiff last year.

Thomas had previously pleaded guilty to manslaughter by diminished responsibility but denied Mr Bush’s murder.

A trial at Cardiff Crown Court heard Thomas attacked Mr Bush “from behind” in his bedroom after he entered through the kitchen at the property they shared, owned by the defendant’s grandparents.

During the “sustained attack” Mr Bush “fled for his life” down two flights of stairs and onto the patio, the trial heard.

William Bush
Pic:South Wales Police
Image:
William Bush. Pic: South Wales Police

Mr Bush sustained 37 stab wounds in total, including 21 to the neck.

His cause of death was given as “multiple stab wounds to the neck and trunk”.

The defendant, who was wearing a blue t-shirt, attended the hearing via video link from a secure hospital.

The jury returned a unanimous verdict on Thursday afternoon after just over three hours of deliberation.

Thomas, who was suffering from schizophrenia, had initially claimed he was acting in self-defence.

‘Clear thinking’

The court heard how Mr Bush was Thomas’s “only known real friend”.

During the trial, it was also heard how Thomas had been arrested “for trying to climb into Buckingham Palace” some weeks previously.

He also wrote to Elon Musk telling him he believed he had the ability to harness gravity.

The defendant was staying with his grandmother in Rhoose, the Vale of Glamorgan, on the night before the attack.

In the early hours of Christmas Eve, the jury heard Thomas had carried out an online search for the “anatomy of the neck”.

Thomas, who could not drive, enquired about getting an Uber to Tŷ Matthew in Llandaff at 3.31am.

Later that morning, his grandmother agreed to take him to the house after he told her he “wanted to walk the dog” and they left her home in Rhoose at 10.41am.

He had sent several messages to Mr Bush in the hours before the attack in which he said he needed to see him before Mr Bush went home to Brecon to spend Christmas with his family.

The prosecution argued there was “clear thinking on the part of Dylan Thomas”.

“This was a frenzied attack where Mr Thomas could only have had one intention and that was to kill Mr Bush,” said Gregory Bull KC, prosecuting.

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But the defence argued Mr Bush’s schizophrenia lay “at the centre” of the case.

“He didn’t understand, because he was deluded. He believed, for whatever reason, that his best friend was threatening his life,” said defence barrister Orlando Pownall KC.

Thomas will be sentenced on Monday 16 December.

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