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Budgets are all about numbers.

In the coming 24 hours, we’ll be engulfed with all sorts of figures – about the state of the economy, about the size of the deficit, about the fiscal rules the new chancellor is planning to introduce in the coming months.

But in fact most budgets, this one included, can really be boiled down to the difference between two big numbers.

Politics live blog: Budget 2024 latest developments

Total government spending and total government receipts.

Right now the UK government is spending just over £1.2trn a year and bringing in just over £1.1trn in taxes and receipts.

In other words, this country is spending more than it generates in tax receipts.

So it has to borrow the difference.

That borrowing, also known as the deficit, is (as you’ve already probably worked out from the above numbers) around £100bn a year.

And politicians, including the chancellor, spend rather a lot of time fretting about the deficit.

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Indeed, the main objective of the various different fiscal rules they’ve imposed on themselves in recent decades has been to narrow the gap between those two big numbers.

Broadly speaking, the easiest way to do this is to cut something few people notice in the short run – government investment.

When he came into office in 2010, George Osborne cut a lot of parts of public spending, but he absolutely slashed the amount the public sector spent on buildings, infrastructure and machinery – capital spending.

Having lifted the total briefly after the pandemic, Jeremy Hunt was planning a similar fall in investment in the coming years.

Rachel Reeves has said repeatedly ahead of the budget that she plans to invest far more in the coming years.

This is a noble goal, given investment tends to benefit future generations, however, it will not be cheap in the short run.

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Indeed, keeping investment spending at current levels will cost roughly £30bn a year by the end of this decade.

So how does the chancellor square that with her fiscal rules?

Well, one part of the answer is that she’s planning to increase the revenues coming into the Exchequer, reportedly via higher national insurance charges for insurers.

But the other part of the answer is that she’s changing her fiscal rules as well.

Budget 2024: Rachel Reeves vs the fiscal rules

The long and the short of it is that Ms Reeves looks likely to choose a set of fiscal rules that ignore investment spending.

Both her updated debt rule and her current budget rule essentially omit capital spending – although they include debt interest costs, so she can’t just borrow willy-nilly.

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That might sound like fiscal jiggery-pokery, and some in the market fret that investors will soon take fright as a result.

Indeed, some suggest they already are, and point to the fact the UK’s cost of government borrowing – as measured by the benchmark 10-year bond yield – has risen from under 4% to nearly 4.3% in the past month alone.

However, this is a slight misreading of this market, which is as affected by global economic factors and central bank action as much as by UK budgetary policy.

Indeed, compare the recent changes in the UK’s borrowing rates with those in Germany and the US and British government bond yields are close to where they usually trade in the run up to a budget.

And they are far, far below where they were in the run-up to Liz Truss’s mini-budget.

graph

Even so, there are bound to be a few unexpected surprises and some relevant new data points in this fiscal event.

It is a budget after all.

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Lindsay Rimer: Sisters of murdered teenage girl still fighting for justice 30 years on

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Lindsay Rimer: Sisters of murdered teenage girl still fighting for justice 30 years on

Police have made a direct appeal to those involved in the murder of a teenager to finally bring her family closure, exactly 30 years after she disappeared.

Lindsay Rimer, 13, went out to buy a box of Corn Flakes late in the evening on 7 November 1994 and never returned home. Her body was found in a canal close to her home six months later.

Lindsay’s family have also marked this year’s anniversary with a renewed appeal for information from the public, particularly in the town of Hebden Bridge in West Yorkshire where Lindsay lived and died.

“This person should be in prison, not us because that’s where we feel we’ve been for the last 30 years,” her sister Kate Rimer told Sky News.

Juliet Rimer was just one when her sister was killed but has recently been reading letters and diaries to gain a better understanding of a life cut short.

“It’s just, it’s a bit of a horror film that we have to do this,” she said. “The fact that I had a sister that I never knew who was murdered, I just can’t wrap my head around that. It’s had a massive impact on me.”

Lindsay months before her death
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Lindsay months before her death

Kate, who played the part of her sister in a police reconstruction a year after her disappearance, says the family believes someone has information that could lead to her killer’s arrest.

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“It’s usually been my mum who does this but the emotional toll it’s taken on my parents means that they just can’t do this anymore.

“It’s incredibly emotional, it opens everything up, and it reflects back over 30 years ago and everything that we lived through then. And just the horror of a loved family member, a child being murdered, is a really bizarre situation. You live your normal life around that and then we’re opening up again to bring murder and death back into our family.”

In the years since Lindsay’s disappearance, police have spoken to more than 5,000 people and examined 1,200 vehicles. Two men were arrested and later released.

A new sighting of Lindsay after she left the convenience shop on the night she disappeared has been confirmed and police believe those in the community have vital information.

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Juliet, left, and Kate Rimer speak to Sky News this month
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Juliet, left, and Kate Rimer speak to Sky News this month

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Detective Chief Inspector James Entwistle of West Yorkshire Police made a direct appeal to those who were involved in killing and disposing of her body.

“Has this been on your conscience for thirty years?” he said.

“It’s perfectly possible there’s more than one person involved, its perfectly possible there’s a vehicle involved. Maybe you didn’t murder Lindsay but you know exactly who did because you were there and that’s sat on your conscience for 30 years.

“Now is the time to come and talk to us, now is the time to draw a line under this and bring that closure for Lindsay’s family.”

New posters featuring Lindsay’s picture have gone up around Hebden Bridge as part of the appeal for information and an increased police presence will be in the town.

Juliet said: “It has been 30 years but Lindsey didn’t deserve this and we owe it to her as her family to keep doing this.”

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Lucy Letby offered ‘tips’ on how to get away with murder, inquiry told

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Lucy Letby offered 'tips' on how to get away with murder, inquiry told

Lucy Letby suggested she could give “tips” to a colleague on how to get away with murder, a public inquiry has heard.

The child serial killer exchanged WhatsApp messages in 2017 with union rep Hayley Griffiths about the US legal drama How To Get Away With Murder.

The discussion took place a year after the neonatal nurse was moved to clerical duties at the Countess of Chester Hospital following concerns she may have been deliberately harming babies.

In a message to Letby, Ms Griffiths wrote: “I’m currently watching a programme called how to get away with murder. I’m learning some good tips.”

Letby replied: “I could have given you some tips x”

Ms Griffiths said: “I need someone to practice on to see if I can get away with it.”

Letby wrote: “I can think of two people you could practice on and will help you cover it up x”

Ms Griffiths replied: “Deal. I will get thinking of a plan. Get the cruise booked as our getaway.”

The pair were working in the hospital’s risk and patient safety department a year before Letby was arrested on suspicion of multiple murders by Cheshire Police.

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How the police caught Lucy Letby

Ms Griffiths said she was aware of the concerns of foul play and the connection to Letby by September 2016.

Shahram Sharghy, representing some of the families of Letby’s victims, asked: “Given the severity of the allegations that were made, and would you agree they are possibly the most serious allegations that anybody could make against a healthcare professional, were you making light of those allegations when you were referring to potentially committing a crime?”

Ms Griffiths answered: “No.”

Mr Sharghy asked: “Can you even begin to imagine and put yourself in the position of the families of the babies who were harmed when they see those messages?”

Ms Griffiths said: “I know… I am so remorseful. As soon as I saw them myself I was upset and I can’t begin to imagine… I can only apologise and say I have learned. I can’t go back in time but I have reflected absolutely on it.”

Read more from the inquiry:
‘Cold’ Lucy Letby failed final year student nurse placement
‘Breathing tubes dislodged’ during Letby shifts
Nurses who worked with Letby ‘were thinking the unthinkable’

Earlier, Ms Griffiths told counsel to the inquiry Rachel Langdale KC: “It was nothing more than a conversation. However, I truly and deeply regret having started that conservation… this is completely unprofessional, poor judgement on my behalf and completely insensitive. And for that, I can only apologise from the bottom of my heart.”

Letby, 34, from Hereford, is currently serving 15 whole-life orders.

She was convicted at Manchester Crown Court of murdering seven infants and attempting to murder six others between June 2015 and June 2016.

The Thirlwall Inquiry into the events surrounding her crimes is expected to sit until early 2015. The findings are expected by late autumn that year.

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Newcastle: Three men arrested in connection with deadly house explosion and on suspicion of cannabis production

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Newcastle: Three men arrested in connection with deadly house explosion and on suspicion of cannabis production

Three men have been arrested in connection with a deadly house explosion in Newcastle.

Seven-year-old Archie York and Jason Laws, who was in his 30s, were killed following the blast in Violet Close, in the Benwell and Elswick area of the city in October.

Police said at the time that six others were taken to hospital “with varying injuries” after the blast and subsequent fire.

Three men – two in their 30s and one in his 50s – have been arrested on suspicion of two counts of manslaughter, and the production of a Class B drug, namely cannabis, Northumbria Police said.

They all remain in police custody.

Detective Chief Inspector Katie Smith said: “This has been a truly tragic incident which resulted in the loss of two lives.

“As a result of our ongoing enquiries, three men have today been arrested in connection with the explosion.

“Our investigation will remain ongoing as we seek to provide answers to what has happened.

“We would continue to ask people to avoid speculation surrounding this incident both online and in the community.”

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From October: Deadly blast destroys Newcastle house

The blast tore through a row of six properties divided into two flats each.

Drone footage showed how six flats in the middle of the building appeared to have been completely destroyed by the explosion and fire, while piles of debris could be seen in the street outside.

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Superintendent Darren Adams, from Northumbria Police, said on the day of the fire: “As a result of the incident in the early hours of this morning, a seven-year-old boy has sadly passed away.

“Despite the efforts of the emergency services, he tragically died at the scene.

“This is a truly devastating outcome.”

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