Could Rachel Reeves’s budget ‘jiggery-pokery’ scare investors?

Published

1 year ago

October 30, 2024

admin

Budgets are all about numbers.

In the coming 24 hours, we’ll be engulfed with all sorts of figures – about the state of the economy, about the size of the deficit, about the fiscal rules the new chancellor is planning to introduce in the coming months.

But in fact most budgets, this one included, can really be boiled down to the difference between two big numbers.

Politics live blog: Budget 2024 latest developments

Total government spending and total government receipts.

Right now the UK government is spending just over £1.2trn a year and bringing in just over £1.1trn in taxes and receipts.

In other words, this country is spending more than it generates in tax receipts.

So it has to borrow the difference.

That borrowing, also known as the deficit, is (as you’ve already probably worked out from the above numbers) around £100bn a year.

And politicians, including the chancellor, spend rather a lot of time fretting about the deficit.

Indeed, the main objective of the various different fiscal rules they’ve imposed on themselves in recent decades has been to narrow the gap between those two big numbers.

Broadly speaking, the easiest way to do this is to cut something few people notice in the short run – government investment.

When he came into office in 2010, George Osborne cut a lot of parts of public spending, but he absolutely slashed the amount the public sector spent on buildings, infrastructure and machinery – capital spending.

Having lifted the total briefly after the pandemic, Jeremy Hunt was planning a similar fall in investment in the coming years.

Rachel Reeves has said repeatedly ahead of the budget that she plans to invest far more in the coming years.

This is a noble goal, given investment tends to benefit future generations, however, it will not be cheap in the short run.

Indeed, keeping investment spending at current levels will cost roughly £30bn a year by the end of this decade.

So how does the chancellor square that with her fiscal rules?

Well, one part of the answer is that she’s planning to increase the revenues coming into the Exchequer, reportedly via higher national insurance charges for insurers.

But the other part of the answer is that she’s changing her fiscal rules as well.

Budget 2024: Rachel Reeves vs the fiscal rules

The long and the short of it is that Ms Reeves looks likely to choose a set of fiscal rules that ignore investment spending.

Both her updated debt rule and her current budget rule essentially omit capital spending – although they include debt interest costs, so she can’t just borrow willy-nilly.

That might sound like fiscal jiggery-pokery, and some in the market fret that investors will soon take fright as a result.

Indeed, some suggest they already are, and point to the fact the UK’s cost of government borrowing – as measured by the benchmark 10-year bond yield – has risen from under 4% to nearly 4.3% in the past month alone.

However, this is a slight misreading of this market, which is as affected by global economic factors and central bank action as much as by UK budgetary policy.

Indeed, compare the recent changes in the UK’s borrowing rates with those in Germany and the US and British government bond yields are close to where they usually trade in the run up to a budget.

And they are far, far below where they were in the run-up to Liz Truss’s mini-budget.

Even so, there are bound to be a few unexpected surprises and some relevant new data points in this fiscal event.

It is a budget after all.

UK

Robert Best death: Women in court after man’s body found in Inverclyde field

Published

5 hours ago

November 19, 2025

admin

Robert Best death: Women in court after man's body found in Inverclyde field

Two women have appeared in court charged with attempting to defeat the ends of justice after a man was found dead in a field in Inverclyde.

The body of Robert Best, 50, was discovered near High Mathernock Farm, Kilmacolm, on the morning of 11 November.

He had been reported missing from Greenock the same day.

Dorothy Shields, 64, and Nicola Brisland, also known as Nicola Campbell, 41, were arrested and charged in connection with Mr Best’s death.

The pair appeared before Greenock Sheriff Court on Wednesday, where they made no plea to the charge of attempting to defeat the ends of justice.

The suspects, both of Port Glasgow, were granted bail ahead of their next court appearance, which is yet to be confirmed.

Andrew Brodie, 51, and Stephen Shields, 44, have already appeared in court in connection with the case.

The pair have each been charged with murder and attempting to defeat the ends of justice.

The suspects, both of Greenock, made no plea to the two separate charges last week and were remanded in custody ahead of their next court appearance.

A 45-year-old man previously arrested in connection with assault and a 41-year-old man arrested at the same time as the two women have both been released pending further enquiries.

Police Scotland previously said officers investigating Mr Best’s death were carrying out enquiries into a report of a disturbance in Lansbury Street, Greenock, which took place between 11pm on 10 November and 3am on 11 November.

A force spokesperson said: “Enquiries are ongoing.”

UK

Illegal mountain of waste next to river ‘utterly appalling’, says PM

Published

6 hours ago

November 19, 2025

admin

Illegal mountain of waste next to river 'utterly appalling', says PM

Sir Keir Starmer has called the pile of fly-tipped illegal waste next to a river in Oxfordshire “utterly appalling” and said “all available powers” will be used to make those responsible cover the cost of the clean-up.

Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey said the pile of rubbish in a field beside the River Cherwell in Kidlington is now 150m long and up to 12m high, adding that water is “now lapping against the waste and carrying it into the river”.

Speaking at PMQs, Sir Ed said it is just one of many sites where organised criminal gangs are “illegally dumping their waste onto our countryside and getting away with it”.

“This is a shocking environmental emergency. So will he instruct the Environment Agency to clean it up now?” Sir Ed added.

Sir Keir responded in the House of Commons on Wednesday, calling the scenes “utterly appalling”.

The prime minister said: “A criminal investigation, as he knows, is under way. Specialist officers are tracking down those responsible.

“The Environmental Agency, in answer to this question, will use all available powers to make sure that the perpetrators cover the cost of the clean-up, which must now follow.”

Sir Keir added: “We have boosted the Environment Agency’s budget for tackling waste crime by 50%, giving councils new powers to seize and crush fly-tippers, vehicles and lawbreakers can now face up to five years in jail.”

Earlier this week, Calum Miller, Liberal Democrat MP for Bicester and Woodstock, said recent heavy rainfall brought by Storm Claudia at the weekend had made the situation more urgent, and meant the rubbish was slowly floating towards the river, which eventually flows through Oxford and feeds the Thames.

Mr Miller also told Sky News on Sunday it was the first time he had seen anything on this scale, questioning whether the Environmental Agency had the resources to deal with it.

The cost of removing the waste is estimated to be more than the entire annual budget of the local council, which is about £25m.

With the site on a floodplain, Mr Miller listed what he saw as the three major environmental risks – waste being washed into the waterways, rain seeping through the waste and carrying toxins into the water and the danger of decomposing chemicals presenting a fire risk.

The site is adjacent to the A34, a busy road running through cities including Oxford and Birmingham.

He said the police had used a helicopter with a heat-seeking camera, and could see that some of the waste was beginning to decompose.

Mr Miller said he believed the Environment Agency was first made aware of the issue back in July.

He said he believed it was the work of “organised criminal gangs” and raised a “bigger systemic problem around the country”, with “dumps are cropping up in more and more places”.

He added: “My concern is the Environmental Agency lacks the resources to deal with criminal activity on this scale. I’m calling on the government to take action and ensure those who are dealing with such incidents have the powers they need to tackle it at source.”

Anna Burns, the Environment Agency’s director for the Thames area, said on Wednesday: “Most of the tipping happened before we were aware of it. As soon as we were aware, we acted quickly and decisively.”

Ms Burns said: “We are pursuing this as a criminal investigation and currently following a number of leads, and we are laser focused on pursing that investigation.

“And we are working with partners to understand the risks associated with the site.”

She said the agency will pursue the perpetrators to make them pay for the “blight on the landscape” they had caused.

UK

Oasis fan fell to his death at Wembley in ‘tragic accident’, coroner’s court hears

Published

7 hours ago

November 19, 2025

admin

Oasis fan fell to his death at Wembley in 'tragic accident', coroner's court hears

An Oasis fan who fell to his death at Wembley Stadium was the victim of a “tragic accident”, a pre-inquest review has heard.

Bournemouth man Lee Claydon, 45, died following the incident at the London venue on 2 August.

Detective Sergeant James Raffin, from the Met Police, said there were “no concerns” from Mr Claydon’s toxicology report.

He also said that while Mr Claydon had drunk alcohol, this was “expected” and “normal for any of the people attending” the Oasis gig.

The force had also ruled out the possibility of suicide, he said.

He told Barnet Coroner’s Court the police had now completed their investigation into his death

He said: “From a police point of view, this is no longer a criminal prosecution.

“We do not suspect any third party involvement.

“This, from everything we have seen, was a tragic accident.

“From a police point of view, I would say our investigation is complete.”

DS Raffin said he was aware the family had concerns over the “circumstances on the night”, and said he would pass these on to officials at Brent Council.

The deceased’s father, Clive Claydon, 75, previously raised questions about barriers at the venue.

“It must have been horrific,” he said in August.

“All I know is there was beer everywhere, it’s slippery, he slipped apparently, we do not know the rest of it, there’s questions about the barriers.”

Brent Council will now review the police report.

Mr Claydon, a landscape gardener, fell during a gig that formed part of Oasis’ sell-out Live ’25 reunion tour – their first since splitting in 2009.

The inquest opening, which took place in September, heard that the father-of-three was taken to a medical centre in Wembley after the fall, where he was pronounced dead at 10.38pm.

A post-mortem examination on 6 August gave his preliminary medical cause of death as “multiple bodily injuries”.

Senior Coroner Andrew Walker told the review hearing the full inquest will take place on 26 February next year.

He said: “It looks like we are going to be in a position next February to have reports from the London Borough of Brent over the circumstances and also we will have by then the police investigation report.”

Oasis previously said in a statement: “We are shocked and saddened to hear of the tragic death of a fan at the show.

“Oasis would like to extend our sincere condolences to the family and friends of the person involved.”

In a statement at the time of the fall, a Wembley spokesperson said: “The stadium operates to a very high health and safety standard, fully meeting legal requirements for the safety of spectators and staff, and is certified to and compliant with the ISO 45001 standard.

“We work very closely and collaboratively with all relevant event delivery stakeholders – including event owners, local authorities, the Sports Grounds Safety Authority and the police – to deliver events to high standards of safety, security and service for everyone attending or working in the venue.”