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Budgets are all about numbers.

In the coming 24 hours, we’ll be engulfed with all sorts of figures – about the state of the economy, about the size of the deficit, about the fiscal rules the new chancellor is planning to introduce in the coming months.

But in fact most budgets, this one included, can really be boiled down to the difference between two big numbers.

Politics live blog: Budget 2024 latest developments

Total government spending and total government receipts.

Right now the UK government is spending just over £1.2trn a year and bringing in just over £1.1trn in taxes and receipts.

In other words, this country is spending more than it generates in tax receipts.

So it has to borrow the difference.

That borrowing, also known as the deficit, is (as you’ve already probably worked out from the above numbers) around £100bn a year.

And politicians, including the chancellor, spend rather a lot of time fretting about the deficit.

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Indeed, the main objective of the various different fiscal rules they’ve imposed on themselves in recent decades has been to narrow the gap between those two big numbers.

Broadly speaking, the easiest way to do this is to cut something few people notice in the short run – government investment.

When he came into office in 2010, George Osborne cut a lot of parts of public spending, but he absolutely slashed the amount the public sector spent on buildings, infrastructure and machinery – capital spending.

Having lifted the total briefly after the pandemic, Jeremy Hunt was planning a similar fall in investment in the coming years.

Rachel Reeves has said repeatedly ahead of the budget that she plans to invest far more in the coming years.

This is a noble goal, given investment tends to benefit future generations, however, it will not be cheap in the short run.

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Indeed, keeping investment spending at current levels will cost roughly £30bn a year by the end of this decade.

So how does the chancellor square that with her fiscal rules?

Well, one part of the answer is that she’s planning to increase the revenues coming into the Exchequer, reportedly via higher national insurance charges for insurers.

But the other part of the answer is that she’s changing her fiscal rules as well.

Budget 2024: Rachel Reeves vs the fiscal rules

The long and the short of it is that Ms Reeves looks likely to choose a set of fiscal rules that ignore investment spending.

Both her updated debt rule and her current budget rule essentially omit capital spending – although they include debt interest costs, so she can’t just borrow willy-nilly.

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That might sound like fiscal jiggery-pokery, and some in the market fret that investors will soon take fright as a result.

Indeed, some suggest they already are, and point to the fact the UK’s cost of government borrowing – as measured by the benchmark 10-year bond yield – has risen from under 4% to nearly 4.3% in the past month alone.

However, this is a slight misreading of this market, which is as affected by global economic factors and central bank action as much as by UK budgetary policy.

Indeed, compare the recent changes in the UK’s borrowing rates with those in Germany and the US and British government bond yields are close to where they usually trade in the run up to a budget.

And they are far, far below where they were in the run-up to Liz Truss’s mini-budget.

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Even so, there are bound to be a few unexpected surprises and some relevant new data points in this fiscal event.

It is a budget after all.

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City financier Kolade joins ranks of Channel 4 chair contenders

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City financier Kolade joins ranks of Channel 4 chair contenders

A leading financier and Conservative Party donor is among the contenders vying to chair Channel 4, the state-owned broadcaster.

Sky News has learnt from Whitehall sources that Wol Kolade has been shortlisted to replace Sir Ian Cheshire at the helm of the company.

Mr Kolade, who has donated hundreds of thousands of pounds to Tory coffers, is said by Whitehall insiders to be one of a handful of remaining candidates for the role.

A recommendation from Ofcom, the media regulator, to Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy about its recommendation for the Channel 4 chairmanship is understood to be imminent.

Mr Kolade, who heads the private equity firm Livingbridge, has held non-executive roles including a seat on the board of NHS Improvement.

He declined to comment when contacted by Sky News on Monday.

His candidacy pits him against rivals including Justin King, the former J Sainsbury chief executive, who last week stepped down as chairman of Ovo Energy.

Debbie Wosskow, an existing Channel 4 non-executive director who has applied for the chair role, is also said by government sources to have made it to the shortlist.

Sir Ian stepped down earlier this year after just one term, having presided over a successful attempt to thwart privatisation by the last Tory government.

The Channel 4 chairmanship is currently held on an interim basis by Dawn Airey, the media industry executive who has occupied top jobs at companies including ITV, Channel 5, and Yahoo!.

The race to lead the state-owned broadcaster’s board has acquired additional importance since the resignation of Alex Mahon, its long-serving chief executive.

It has since been reported that Alex Burford, another Channel 4 non-executive director and the boss of Warner Records UK, was interested in replacing Ms Mahon.

Ms Mahon, who was a vocal opponent of Channel 4’s privatisation, is leaving to join Superstruct, a private equity-owned live entertainment company.

The appointment of a new chair is expected to take place by the autumn, with the chosen candidate expected to lead the recruitment of Ms Mahon’s successor.

The Department for Culture, Media and Sport declined to comment on the recruitment process.

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Premier League club Brentford to sell stake at £400m valuation

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Premier League club Brentford to sell stake at £400m valuation

The owner of Brentford Football Club has clinched a deal to sell a minority stake in the Premier League side to new investors at a valuation of roughly £400m.

Sky News has learnt that an agreement that will involve current owner Matthew Benham offloading a chunk of his holding to Gary Lubner – the wealthy businessman who ran Autoglass-owner Belron – is expected to be announced as early as Tuesday.

Matthew Vaughn, the Hollywood film-maker whose credits include Layer Cake and Lock, Stock and Two Smoking Barrels, is also expected to invest in Brentford as part of the deal, The Athletic reported last month.

Further details of the transaction were unclear on Monday night, although one insider speculated that it could ultimately see as much as 25% of the club changing hands.

If confirmed, it would underline the continuing interest from wealthy investors in top-flight English clubs.

FA Cup winners Crystal Palace have seen a minority stake being bought by Woody Johnson, the New York Jets-owner, in the last few weeks, with that deal hastened by the implications of former shareholder John Textor’s simultaneous ownership of a stake in French club Lyon.

Sky News revealed in February 2024 that Mr Benham had hired bankers at Rothschild to market a stake in Brentford.

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Under Mr Benham’s stewardship, it has enjoyed one of the most successful transformations in English football, rising from the lower divisions to the top division in 2021.

It has also moved from its long-standing Griffin Park home to a new stadium near Kew Bridge.

This summer is proving to be one of transition, with manager Thomas Frank joining Tottenham Hotspur and striker Bryan Mbeumo the subject of persistent interest from Manchester United.

Brentford did not respond to a request for comment on Monday night, while a spokesman for Mr Lubner declined to comment.

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Economists say the cost of living crisis is over – here’s why many households disagree

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Economists say the cost of living crisis is over - here's why many households disagree

Talk to economists and they will tell you that the cost of living crisis is over.

They will point towards charts showing that while inflation is still above the Bank of England’s 2% target, it has come down considerably in recent years, and is now “only” hovering between 3% and 4%.

So why does the cost of living still feel like such a pressing issue for so many households? The short answer is because, depending on how you define it, it never ended.

Economists like to focus on the change in prices over the past year, and certainly on that measure inflation is down sharply, from double-digit levels in recent years.

But if you look over the past four years then the rate of change is at its highest since the early 1990s.

But even that understates the complexity of economic circumstances facing households around the country.

For if you want a sense of how current financial conditions really feel in people’s pockets, you really ought to offset inflation against wages, and then also take account of the impact of taxes.

More on Cost Of Living

That is a complex exercise – in part because no two households’ experience is alike.

But recent research from the Resolution Foundation illustrates some of the dynamics going on beneath the surface, and underlines that for many households the cost of living crisis is still very real indeed.

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UK inflation slows to 3.4%

The place to begin here is to recall that perhaps the best measure of economic “feelgood factor” is to subtract inflation and taxes from people’s nominal pay.

You end up with a statistic showing your real household disposable income.

Consider the projected pattern over the coming years. For a household earning £50,000, earnings are expected to increase by 10% between 2024/25 and 2027/28.

Subtract inflation projected over that period and all of a sudden that 10% drops to 2.5%.

Now subtract the real increase in payments of National Insurance and taxes and it’s down to 0.2%.

Now subtract projected council tax increases and all of a sudden what began as a 10% increase is actually a 0.1% decrease.

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Will we see tax rises in next budget?

Of course, the degree of change in your circumstances can differ depending on all sorts of factors. Some earners (especially those close to tax thresholds, which in this case includes those on £50,000) feel the impact of tax changes more than others.

Pensioners and those who own their homes outright benefit from a comparatively lower increase in housing costs in the coming years than those paying mortgages and (especially) rent.

Nor is everyone’s experience of inflation the same. In general, lower-income households pay considerably more of their earnings on essentials, like housing costs, food and energy. Some of those costs are going up rapidly – indeed, the UK faces higher power costs than any other developed economy.

But the ultimate verdict provides some clear patterns. Pensioners can expect further increases in their take-home pay in the coming years. Those who own their homes outright and with mortgages can likely expect earnings to outpace extra costs. But others are less fortunate. Those who rent their homes privately are projected to see sharp falls in their household income – and children are likely to see further falls in their economic welfare too.

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