On the one hand, Keir Starmervowed there would be “no return to austerity” under his government, while also insisting he had “no plans” to raise taxes beyond an £8bn raid on private equity, oil and gas companies, private school fees and non-doms to pay for more teachers and NHS appointments.
In reality, whoever won the election faced tens of billions of pounds in tough choices over tax and spending. But instead of levelling with us, the two main parties embarked in a “conspiracy of silence” in order to win votes.
Today, the truth will out, in a budget which will define Sir Keir Starmer’s first term in a way his manifesto did not.
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What to expect from the budget
There will be huge tax rises and there will be changes in the fiscal rules to allow the chancellor to borrow more to invest in Britain’s crumbling infrastructure.
And we will finally find out which “working people” are the ones Sir Keir Starmer wants to protect as small and big businesses, property owners, shareholders – and perhaps “Middle England” too – braces itself for tax rises, and the government braces itself for the fall-out.
The prime minister set the hare running on who’s in the firing line for tax rises last week at the Commonwealth Heads of Government summit in Samoa when he told me “working people” were those who “go out and earn their living, usually paid in a sort of monthly cheque” but they did not have the ability to “write a cheque to get out of difficulties”.
He told me explicitly that “working people” who also owned assets, such as property or shares, did not fit his definition.
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10:04
Sky News questions Starmer on tax rises
So business owners, property owners and Middle England do have some cause for alarm.
The pledge to “not increase national insurance, the basic, higher, or additional rates of income tax, or VAT” has been tweaked in recent weeks to a promise to “protect the payslips of working people”.
In another blow to employers, but a win for those struggling on low wages, Labour have also announced a 6.7% increase in the National Living Wage for over three million workers next year, amounting to a pay boost worth £1,400-a-year for an eligible full-time worker.
Is this the moment the manifesto is revealed as a sham? Labour insiders insist not and point, again, to the “£22bn black hole” in the current financial year they discovered when their took office – and which ratchets up to a £40bn gap in the public finances over the course of the parliament – that they now have to plug.
Politically, they hope to blame the big tax rises and borrowing on the economic inheritance left to them by the Tories and buy some space with voters.
As one senior government figure put it to me: “The scale of the economic inheritance is bigger than thought and it has blown a political and economic hole in our first few months.”
This will be a message Rachel Reeves will want to land at the despatch box on Wednesday.
But a public disillusioned with politicians might not see it like that as they watch a Labour chancellor, flanked by a prime minister who promised the opposite in the election, embark on a massive round of tax rises that but months ago they were told were not coming down the tracks.
Insiders acknowledge this is going to be a tax and spend budget that goes far beyond what we were told to expect when Labour were asking for votes.
But they hope what they can do with this big moment is to take it beyond the winners and losers and frame this first Labour budget in over 14 years as “forging a new settlement” for the people and the country.
To that end, this will be the “fixing the foundations and change” budget: “This is a new economic settlement from a government willing to investment and, in particular, borrow to invest, and that is a change and it will show a path towards long term growth.”
Because, as we drill into who is a working person, and who is going to be hit with tax raises in this budget, there will also be a big story about billions of investment in our country’s energy and transport infrastructure, into housing and hospitals and schools.
“If we get it right, on the evening of the budget, we want to be able to show that we protected your pay slip, are fixing the NHS and investing to rebuild Britain,” one senior figure explains. “What’s the alternative? Choice is going to feature very heavily in the chancellor’s speech. We have made our choices and we are asking business and the wealthiest to pay a bit more to grow our economy and protecting working people.”
And this new settlement, when it lands, will be massive. Rachel Reeves intends to change her borrowing rules to allow up to £53bn more in borrowing to be spent on public services and infrastructure.
Trailing the decision at the International Monetary Fund summit in Washington last week, the chancellor said she was making the change in order to take opportunities for the economy “in industries from life sciences to carbon capture, storage and clean energy to AI and technology”, as well as using borrowing to “repair our crumbling schools and hospitals”.
The danger for the chancellor is that what actually comes out the other side is anger over tax rises not flagged in the manifesto, or accusations that the government is being Janus-faced if it claims it’s protecting working people should it also, as speculated, extend the freeze on income tax thresholds beyond the 2028 deadline set by the last government, which would drag millions of workers into higher tax bands (and raise as much as £7bn a year for the government).
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How might the middle classes and wealthier voters respond to their incomes being squeezed? And how might businesses respond to being asked to pay billions more in taxes from a government that has been banging on about being pro-business for months?
It is going to be a difficult sell, no doubt. But this government is calculating that short-term pain now will translate into gains in the medium to long term if Reeves can pull it off and kick-start economic growth.
The hope is that come the next Labour manifesto, the pledges on the NHS, economy, better housing and jobs have been met and the public can forgive the tax rises foisted on them to get there.
Starmer talked endlessly about it being a change election and it will be this budget, not his manifesto, that proves the point.
A British tourist being treated after a suspected mass methanol poisoning in Laos has died, according to UK officials.
Simone White, 28, from Orpington, Kent, fell ill after reportedly drinking “free shots” from a local bar in Vang Vieng – a resort popular with backpackers.
Four people had already died following the suspected poisonings – an Australian named Bianca Jones, 19, from Melbourne, as well as two Danish women in their 20s and a 56-year-old US citizen.
They are believed to have consumed drinks tainted with methanol, which is sometimes added to mixed drinks as a cheaper alternative to alcohol, but can cause severe poisoning or death.
“We are supporting the family of a British woman who has died in Laos, and we are in contact with the local authorities,” the UK’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) said in a statement.
The FCDO said it was also providing consular assistance to other British nationals hospitalised in the incident, as well as their families.
Ms White was an associate lawyer specialising in intellectual property and technology and worked at the London office of the American law firm Squire Patton Boggs.
Her work involved general commercial matters, and contentious and non-contentious intellectual property law issues, according to the firm’s website.
Bethany Clarke, a friend of Ms White and a healthcare worker, also from Orpington, said a group of six people had been taken to hospital after drinking from the same bar.
She posted on a Laos Backpacking Facebook group to warn other travellers after the group fell ill.
“Urgent – please avoid all local spirits. Our group stayed in Vang Vieng and we drank free shots offered by one of the bars,” she wrote.
“Just avoid them as so not worth it. Six of us who drank from the same place are in hospital currently with methanol poisoning.”
‘Every parent’s very worst fear’
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed to his country’s parliament that 19-year-old Bianca Jones had died after being evacuated to a Thai hospital from Vang Vieng.
Thai authorities confirmed that Jones had died of “brain swelling due to high levels of methanol found in her system”.
Her friend Holly Bowles, also 19, remains in hospital in neighbouring Thailand, Mr Albanese said.
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1:36
Laos methanol poisonings – what we know
Australian officials said “several foreign nationals” had also been victims of methanol poisoning
“This is every parent’s very worst fear and a nightmare that no one should have to endure,” Mr Albanese said.
“We also take this moment to say that we’re thinking of Bianca’s friend Holly Bowles who is fighting for her life.”
‘Her incredible spirit touched so many lives’
In a statement to the Melbourne Herald Sun newspaper, Ms Jones’ family paid tribute to her.
“She was surrounded by love, and we are comforted by the knowledge that her incredible spirit touched so many lives during her time with us,” the family wrote.
“We want to express our deepest gratitude for the overwhelming support, love, and prayers we’ve received from across Australia.”
The US State Department confirmed that an American had also died in Vang Vieng, and Denmark’s Foreign Ministry said two of its citizens had also died in “the incident in Laos”.
Neither would comment directly on a link to methanol poisoning.
The second named storm of the season will bring snow, rain and strong winds to parts of the UK this weekend, according to the Met Office.
Hundreds of schools are closed as the storm, named Bert, sweeps in, bringing freezing temperatures and snow over the weekend.
Wind gusts of up to 70mph are expected in some areas as well as the potential of flooding and travel disruption.
Heavy snowfall could bring further disruption to parts of the country while heavy rain is also likely over the weekend, the Met Office added.
Parts of southwest England including Plymouth and Exeter are under a yellow warning for snow until 3pm today, with 5-10cm predicted in higher parts of Dartmoor.
Wintry showers will continue in different parts of the UK throughout Thursday and Friday, amid warnings of snow and ice for much of Scotland, northern England and parts of western and eastern England and Wales between midday today and 10am tomorrow.
Met Office chief meteorologist Matthew Lehnert said: “A northerly airflow will continue to feed snow showers into Scotland over the next few days, with this reaching lower levels at times and bringing the potential for some travel disruption.
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“Overnight temperatures will drop below zero fairly widely over the next few days, which has resulted in some ice warnings, with further warnings likely through this week.”
More than 114 schools are shut in the Highland Council area today due to snow, including Inverness Royal Academy where pupils were told their prelim exams planned for the day would be rescheduled.
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Almost 40 schools in Aberdeenshire are also shut while many others had delayed openings, and in Moray around 12 were closed and others opened late.
It comes after more than 100 schools or nurseries were closed in Scotland yesterday because of the weather.
South of the border, 89 schools were shut in Devon today, 18 in Dorset and 60 in Cornwall, while in Wales around 10 were closed in Conwy, 18 in Denbighshire and two in Wrexham.
As Storm Bert hits the UK, areas where warnings are in place in the south and west are likely to be impacted by heavy rain on Saturday and Sunday.
Between 50-75 mm of rainfall is expected there on the weekend, while Wales and southwest England could see more than 100mm.
There is already a yellow warning for heavy snow on Saturday followed by a “rapid thaw” and rain on Saturday night in northeast and northwest England, the West Midlands, Yorkshire, and much of Scotland.
Met Office Deputy Chief Meteorologist, Dan Holley, said: “Storm Bert marks a shift to much milder air and wintry hazards will gradually diminish through the weekend, but heavy snowfall is expected across parts of northern England and Scotland for a time on Saturday, especially over higher ground, and warnings are in place.”
A man has been found guilty of murdering his “best friend” on Christmas Eve.
A jury of 10 men and two women heard Dylan Thomas, 24, killed William Bush, 23, in a “frenzied attack”in the Llandaff area of Cardiff last year.
Thomas had previously pleaded guilty to manslaughter by diminished responsibility but denied Mr Bush’s murder.
A trial at Cardiff Crown Court heard Thomas attacked Mr Bush “from behind” in his bedroom after he entered through the kitchen at the property they shared, owned by the defendant’s grandparents.
During the “sustained attack” Mr Bush “fled for his life” down two flights of stairs and onto the patio, the trial heard.
Mr Bush sustained 37 stab wounds in total, including 21 to the neck.
His cause of death was given as “multiple stab wounds to the neck and trunk”.
The defendant, who was wearing a blue t-shirt, attended the hearing via video link from a secure hospital.
The jury returned a unanimous verdict on Thursday afternoon after just over three hours of deliberation.
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Thomas, who was suffering from schizophrenia, had initially claimed he was acting in self-defence.
‘Clear thinking’
The court heard how Mr Bush was Thomas’s “only known real friend”.
During the trial, it was also heard how Thomas had been arrested “for trying to climb into Buckingham Palace” some weeks previously.
He also wrote to Elon Musk telling him he believed he had the ability to harness gravity.
The defendant was staying with his grandmother in Rhoose, the Vale of Glamorgan, on the night before the attack.
In the early hours of Christmas Eve, the jury heard Thomas had carried out an online search for the “anatomy of the neck”.
Thomas, who could not drive, enquired about getting an Uber to Tŷ Matthew in Llandaff at 3.31am.
Later that morning, his grandmother agreed to take him to the house after he told her he “wanted to walk the dog” and they left her home in Rhoose at 10.41am.
He had sent several messages to Mr Bush in the hours before the attack in which he said he needed to see him before Mr Bush went home to Brecon to spend Christmas with his family.
The prosecution argued there was “clear thinking on the part of Dylan Thomas”.
“This was a frenzied attack where Mr Thomas could only have had one intention and that was to kill Mr Bush,” said Gregory Bull KC, prosecuting.
But the defence argued Mr Bush’s schizophrenia lay “at the centre” of the case.
“He didn’t understand, because he was deluded. He believed, for whatever reason, that his best friend was threatening his life,” said defence barrister Orlando Pownall KC.
Thomas will be sentenced on Monday 16 December.
This breaking news story is being updated and more details will be published shortly.