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The 2024 Autumn Budget in one word? Big.

What we got from Rachel Reeves today was, in economic terms, a major departure from economic policy as we’ve known it in this country for the past decade-and-a-half.

We got the single biggest increase in taxes in any fiscal event since 1993. The tax burden itself is now heading up to the highest level in history. We got a significant departure from the policies and promises laid out in the Labour manifesto.

Only a few months ago, Labour pledged not to make dramatic changes to Britain’s economic policy – no significant tax rises, no dramatic changes to public spending. But today the chancellor delivered significant changes.

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Budget 2024: Key takeaways

Budget latest: Experts react to Labour’s ‘massive’ tax plans

The old fiscal rules are out and now this government plans to borrow many billions of pounds more. It plans to increase investment considerably.

It plans to raise taxes on those with investments, on those with assets who could previously pass them on to their children (including business owners and farmers). In the meantime, it plans to spend considerably more on the health service and on public investment than previously slated.

It’s worth saying: while the government inherited the public finances in a worse condition than they looked before the election, even the Treasury’s “black hole” of £22bn cannot explain the dramatic change in economic policy here.

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Reeves refuses to rule out future tax hikes

It does not explain the dramatic increase in borrowing, spending and taxes – these are policy decisions by the current government. And, many would say, quite right too. Surveys suggest the British public support higher taxes, especially if they are used to improve the National Health Service.

Many think the UK should be spending more on its public services, even if that means we all have to contribute more (though they are generally less enthusiastic if asked whether they would be happy to pay higher taxes themselves). And there is little dispute that this country’s investment levels have been too low for too long and could afford to be higher.

More from Sky News:
The chancellor’s announcements
What the budget means for you
Supermarkets’ tax burden soars

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Labour’s manifesto promised only slight economic changes and small tax increases

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However, that wasn’t the pitch Reeves and Keir Starmer made at the election. They promised, in their manifesto, only slight economic changes and only small increases in taxes. They promised to spend much of their time in office cleaning up the mess from the last government. Reeves promised to be the iron chancellor of fiscal discipline.

But this budget is considerably less disciplined with the public finances than expected. But what will worry the chancellor is that despite this extra largesse with both investment and current spending, the UK economy is not going gangbusters as a result.

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The Office for Budget Responsibility actually cut its forecasts for long term growth. That promise made by Starmer to achieve the highest economic growth in the G7 looks highly unlikely – even after the implementation of all these policies.

And in the hours after the speech, markets reacted in a way that will cause nerves in the Treasury. It’s nothing like the lurches in government debt yields we saw after Liz Truss’s mini budget in 2022. But the pound fell and the interest rates investors charge the UK government rose. That’s not something any chancellor would like to see after their first budget.

The next few days promise to be very interesting both in politics and in markets.

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Grooming gangs inquiry ‘won’t be watered down’, home sec vows – as more survivors quit panel

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Grooming gangs inquiry 'won't be watered down', home sec vows - as more survivors quit panel

The national inquiry into grooming gangs will leave “no hiding place” for those involved in the scandal, the home secretary has warned.

Shabana Mahmood’s vow comes amid accusations the inquiry is “descending into chaos” – with Home Office minister Jess Phillips being accused of a “lie” for disputing allegations that the inquiry is being diluted.

Three survivors have resigned from its liaison panel in recent days over concerns about how the process is being handled, while a frontrunner to chair the inquiry has also pulled out.

Home Office minister Jess Phillips. Pic: PA
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Home Office minister Jess Phillips. Pic: PA

While Ms Mahmood acknowledged there are frustrations about the pace of progress towards launching the inquiry – which had been announced back in June – she said its scope “will not change”.

In an article for The Times, she vowed the probe “will never be watered down on my watch” – and said it will focus on how “some of the most vulnerable people in this country” were abused “at the hands of predatory monsters”.

“In time, we came to know this as the ‘grooming gangs’ scandal, though I have never thought the name matched the scale of the evil. We must call them what they were: evil child rapists,” Ms Mahmood wrote.

Read more:
Grooming gangs scandal timeline: What happened?

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Grooming gangs victim speaks out

Fiona Goddard resigned from the liaison panel after citing a “toxic, fearful environment” and “condescending and controlling language” used towards survivors.

Ellie Reynolds also quit – saying the “final turning point” was the “push to widen the remit of the national inquiry in ways that downplay the racial and religious motivations behind our abuse”.

A third known as Elizabeth – which is not her real name – followed yesterday afternoon.

Ms Mahmood said “the door will always remain open to them” if they decide to return to the liaison panel.

“But even if they do not, I owe it to them – and the country – to answer some of the concerns that they have raised,” she added.

The home secretary also insisted the inquiry will be “robust and rigorous” – with the power to compel witnesses, and examine the ethnicity and religion of the offenders.

‘Fearful environment’

Some of their fears centred around the perceived prospect of the inquiry being diluted by broadening its scope beyond group-based sexual abuse, and pushes for it to have a regional focus rather than it being truly national.

Ms Phillips, the Home Office minister, said this was “untrue”.

Ms Goddard responded to say: “This is a lie.”

Read more from Sky News:
Phillips condemns ‘idiot’ councils that don’t believe in grooming gang problems
Leading candidates to chair grooming gangs inquiry revealed

As well as alleging a ‘toxic, fearful environment’ within the liaison panel, Ms Goddard‘s resignation letter, which Sky News published extracts from on Monday, expressed deep reservations about the shortlisted chairs for the inquiry.

Her resignation came after Sky News revealed the two leading candidates were former police chief Jim Gamble and social worker Annie Hudson, who were due to meet the survivors panel on Tuesday, before Ms Hudson withdrew from the running.

Some survivors expressed concern that the two candidates’ backgrounds in policing and social work might lead to conflicts of interest.

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Retail crypto TXs have doubled on regulatory clarity: TRM Labs

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Retail crypto TXs have doubled on regulatory clarity: TRM Labs

Retail crypto TXs have doubled on regulatory clarity: TRM Labs

Most crypto activity over the last year has been tied to practical use cases such as payments, remittances and preserving value in volatile economic conditions.

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Caerphilly by-election: Will Plaid or Reform have last laugh in Tommy Cooper’s birthplace?

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Caerphilly by-election: Will Plaid or Reform have last laugh in Tommy Cooper's birthplace?

Caerphilly is famous for three Cs: coal, cheese and its mighty castle. It’s also the birthplace of the legendary comedian Tommy Cooper.

And after Thursday’s Senedd by-election, in what was once a Labour stronghold as impregnable as the castle, it’s Plaid Cymru or Reform UK that will have the last laugh.

It may not be a Westminster by-election, but this clash will have an impact on UK politics way beyond the Welsh valleys if Nigel Farage’s party triumphs.

iStock file pic
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iStock file pic

A Reform UK victory would strengthen claims that Mr Farage and his insurgents are poised to inflict massive damage on Labour and the Conservatives in elections next year and beyond.

Victory in the valleys would intensify fears among the other parties that Reform UK’s boasts about winning the next general election are not the fantasy that its opponents claim.

On a campaign visit to Caerphilly, Mr Farage – inevitably – posed for photographs in front of a 9ft tall bronze statue of Tommy Cooper, who died in 1984.

But the by-election is no laughing matter for Labour, which has seen its support in this by-election crumble like Caerphilly cheese.

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Mr Farage announcing Llyr Powell as the Reform candidate earlier this year
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Mr Farage announcing Llyr Powell as the Reform candidate earlier this year

Labour has held the Westminster seat of Caerphilly since 1918 and the Senedd seat since devolution in 1999. Ron Davies, said to be the architect of Welsh devolution, was MP from 1983 to 2001.

He was Welsh secretary under Tony Blair from 1997 until he quit over what he called a “moment of madness” in 1998 when he was mugged at knifepoint on London’s Clapham Common.

For the front-runner Reform UK, not even the conviction of its former leader in Wales, Nathan Gill, for taking pro-Russian bribes seems to have halted the march of Mr Farage’s party towards the brink of a stunning victory.

Mr Gill, who led Reform UK in Wales in 2021, admitted taking bribes to make statements in favour of Vladimir Putin’s Russia while he was a member of the European Parliament.

Questioned during a visit to Caerphilly, Mr Farage said: “Any political party can find in their midst all sorts of terrible people. Gill is particularly shocking because I knew him as a devout Christian, very clean-living, honest person. So I’m deeply shocked.”

Despite this bribery scandal, the latest opinion poll in the constituency suggested a narrow Reform UK victory, with Mr Farage’s party on 42%, Plaid Cymru on 38% and Labour languishing on a dismal 12%.

But with Labour, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Green Party out of contention in a two-horse race, Reform UK’s candidate Llŷr Powell could be vulnerable to tactical voting for Plaid Cymru’s Lindsay Whittle.

Ron Davies, the 'architect of Welsh devolution', was MP for Caerphilly. File pic: Reuters
Image:
Ron Davies, the ‘architect of Welsh devolution’, was MP for Caerphilly. File pic: Reuters

Turnout could be crucial. A low turnout is likely to help Plaid Cymru win. A high turnout could mean Reform’s opinion poll leads, both nationally and locally, are reliable and could hand victory to Mr Farage.

But Plaid has come second in every Senedd election in Caerphilly and Mr Whittle can’t be faulted for perseverance and dogged determination. Until now, he’s had a miserable record as a candidate, both for Westminster and the Senedd.

Aged 72, he has stood in Caerphilly in every general election since 1983, no fewer than 10 times, and in every Welsh Assembly election since it was formed in 1999 – seven times.

Dubbed “Mr Caerphilly” by his party, he was council leader and assembly member for South Wales East between 2011 and 2016.

Interviewed by Sky News back in 2003, the year of Tony Blair’s Iraq war, he said: “People are obviously very unhappy with the health service. They’re unhappy with the way the Labour Party are drifting to the right.

“They’re unhappy with the treatment of the ex-miners and their compensation claims. They’re unhappy with the treatment of the firemen. They’re unhappy that we’ve just gone to war.”

The by-election could indicate how Labour will fare in future elections. Pic: Reuters
Image:
The by-election could indicate how Labour will fare in future elections. Pic: Reuters

Reform UK’s Mr Powell, on the other hand, is just 30 and is relatively inexperienced as a candidate. He was a Tory candidate in local elections in Cardiff in 2022.

But he was also active in Mr Farage’s UKIP and Brexit Party and worked for the now disgraced Gill as a constituency caseworker while Gill was an MEP. He now says Mr Gill’s actions were “abhorrent” and “a betrayal”.

For Labour, despite its long dominance in Caerphilly, this campaign couldn’t have gone any worse. As well as battling against the unpopularity of both Sir Keir Starmer and the Welsh government, the council’s Labour leader, Sean Morgan, defected to Plaid Cymru during the campaign.

So, like many two-horse races, this political dash to the finishing line could be neck and neck.

Pic: PA
Image:
Pic: PA

Of Caerphilly’s three Cs, coal is long gone. The last mine, Penallta collier, closed in 1991, though there’s a proud history of coal mining.

Back in 1913, tragedy struck when the Universal Colliery in Senghenydd was the site of the UK’s worst mining accident, when 439 miners and a rescuer were killed in an explosion.

But Caerphilly could be about to make history once more, with either a massive stride forward on the road to Downing Street for Mr Farage or Labour surrendering power to the Welsh nationalists in Cardiff after more than a quarter of a century.

And, as Caerphilly’s most famous son would have said, the by-election result on Thursday night will be a pointer to politics in Wales and the whole of the UK… just like that!

The full list of candidates standing at the Caerphilly by-election

  • Labour – Richard Tunnicliffe
  • Plaid Cymru – Lindsay Whittle
  • Reform UK – Llŷr Powell
  • Conservative – Gareth Potter
  • Green Party – Gareth Hughes
  • Gwlad – Anthony Cook
  • UKIP – Roger Quilliam
  • Liberal Democrats – Steve Aicheler

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